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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

only two mutations away

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    Posted: February 11 2006 at 5:39am

http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200602/s1567776.htm

 

Bird flu only two mutations away from deadly form: expert. 11/02/2006. ABC News Online

[This is the print version of story http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200602/s1567776.htm]

Last Update: Saturday, February 11, 2006. 11:25pm (AEDT)

Bird flu only two mutations away from deadly form: expert

The bird flu virus is only two mutations away from a form that can spread easily between people, sparking a pandemic in which millions could die, the UN bird flu chief said in an interview published in Portugal.

"Only two mutations are needed for it to become easily transmissible among humans," Dr David Nabarro, who heads the UN drive to contain the virus, told weekly newspaper Expresso.

"I wake up every morning thinking that today could be the day that I will see a report about a strange case of bird flu among humans," he said.

The H5N1 bird flu virus has killed tens of millions of birds since 2003 and there have been at least 165 confirmed cases of the strain spreading to humans, causing about 90 deaths, mostly in Asia.

The virus has spread from Asia to eastern Europe and Nigeria this week reported Africa's first known outbreak of the deadly strain of the disease.

Experts have long warned that the H5N1 virus could mutate into a form that is easily transmitted by humans and spark a global pandemic potentially killing millions.

Dr Nabarro said he has told governments around the world to prepare for the arrival of a human-to-human strain of the virus "as if this will happen tomorrow."

In 1918, an influenza pandemic that is believed to have originated in birds killed more than 40 million people around the world.

Subsequent pandemics in 1957 and 1968 had lower death rates but still caused widespread disruption

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote libbyalex Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 11 2006 at 5:51am
Hi Muskrat -- I just caught it to and posted it under another thread so it is good that this has it's own headline! The fact that the UN is talking about it in these terms sure adds even more gravity to the situation, eh? -- Libby
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 11 2006 at 5:52am
The beginning of the normal flu season was in late November and early December.  When the normal flu hit the U.S in December, that was "the beginning" of flu season.  "The height" of flu season hits between January and Marh.   We are about to be hit with a sizeable wave of the normal flu.    My concern is that the normal flu viruses that start every year usually begin in Asia and then they work their way over here.  By the time the flu makes it here, we already have the vaccine ready.   My concern is that H5N1 is the primary influenza strain in Asia at the moment, which means that the next influenza wave could be H5N1.  This is probably why Nabarro is expecting it soon.  All of the above is just my opinion.  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Corn Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 11 2006 at 6:52am
And the two mutations are.......Republican and Democrat
Speculation is the only tool we have with a threat that can circle the globe in 30 days. Test results&news is slow.Factor in human conditions,politics, money&bingo!The truth!Facts come after the fact.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Doodlebug Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 11 2006 at 7:03am
Muskrat, I can't seem to get either of the links to the original article to work.  Would you mind checking them again on your end?  Maybe it's because I'm in Netscape or something, but I'd really like to print this from the original source.  Thanks.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Corn Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 11 2006 at 7:15am
Speculation is the only tool we have with a threat that can circle the globe in 30 days. Test results&news is slow.Factor in human conditions,politics, money&bingo!The truth!Facts come after the fact.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Doodlebug Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 11 2006 at 7:28am
That did it, Corn.  It's printing now.  And you're right - that is a great site!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Doodlebug Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 11 2006 at 7:29am
Whoops!!  Forgot to say "thank you" Corn
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 11 2006 at 7:33am
I clicked on the links and both of them work fine at this end...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Fiddlerdave Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 11 2006 at 1:01pm
I have been most concerned with the outbreak (which by every indications is underreported) in Africa.  Having read the book The Coming Plague by Laurie Garrett, a serious and reputable microbiologist who makes the technical issues clear to the layman. Among many other issues, she explains how a large pool of sick, poor, improperly treated  people (thy name is Africa!) with compromised immune systems is the perfect breeding ground for disease mutations which we would desire least to occur.  The book was terrifying reading PRIOR to the Bird Flu.  But if you would like to have a backround for many of the topics that are current today, it would be excellant to read.
Dave
"Ask not for whom the bell tolls, it tolls for us"!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote steve 101 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 11 2006 at 1:06pm
if they are saying 2 mutations away i think we can assume it is closer than that. What comes out of Africa may very well be much worse than what went in
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Teagen Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 11 2006 at 1:43pm

Exactly. No ones knows what is happening in Africa now. The mutations may have already occured.

Remember that in both Turkey and Iraq humans showed signs of BF before it was reported in birds.

It was a month after it was reported in birds that it was determined it was BF in Nigeria. How many people in Nigeria have died of BF like symptoms in the last month and it been attributed to another disease ? 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 11 2006 at 1:46pm
yes and so like who to  be too late and too little
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 12 2006 at 12:55pm
I would like someone to start a post from different countries to get  idea of what happening in Hong Kong and China .  Im not a good  writer and it would  require a good moderator .  This post would get more interesting as thing move along.AND be a important source o f imformation 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 12 2006 at 5:58pm
don't we have a member from China already?  I thought I had noticed them earlier in the month, posted stuff from a message board?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kumera Kid Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 12 2006 at 5:59pm
So much is happening in so many locations that it is becoming impossible to keep track. A simple note as to number suspected human cases and number of deaths in each location would certainly help
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 12 2006 at 7:56pm

Somebody posted this link the other day; everytime I click on it there are more & more CHICKEN icons (they rep where bird flu is)  Makes it very 'in your face'.  It's gone for 6 chicken icons to however many are there now in the past week

http://visz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/woalert.php?lang=eng

 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Corn Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 13 2006 at 12:01am

Looks likw they added Slovenia and Nigeria or Italy

Speculation is the only tool we have with a threat that can circle the globe in 30 days. Test results&news is slow.Factor in human conditions,politics, money&bingo!The truth!Facts come after the fact.
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