Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
only two mutations away |
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Posted: February 11 2006 at 5:39am |
http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200602/s1567776.htm
Bird flu only two mutations away from deadly form: expert. 11/02/2006. ABC News Online Last Update: Saturday, February 11, 2006. 11:25pm (AEDT)
Bird flu only two mutations away from deadly form: expertThe bird flu virus is only two mutations away from a form that can spread easily between people, sparking a pandemic in which millions could die, the UN bird flu chief said in an interview published in Portugal. "Only two mutations are needed for it to become easily transmissible among humans," Dr David Nabarro, who heads the UN drive to contain the virus, told weekly newspaper Expresso. "I wake up every morning thinking that today could be the day that I will see a report about a strange case of bird flu among humans," he said. The H5N1 bird flu virus has killed tens of millions of birds since 2003 and there have been at least 165 confirmed cases of the strain spreading to humans, causing about 90 deaths, mostly in Asia. The virus has spread from Asia to eastern Europe and Nigeria this week reported Africa's first known outbreak of the deadly strain of the disease. Experts have long warned that the H5N1 virus could mutate into a form that is easily transmitted by humans and spark a global pandemic potentially killing millions. Dr Nabarro said he has told governments around the world to prepare for the arrival of a human-to-human strain of the virus "as if this will happen tomorrow." In 1918, an influenza pandemic that is believed to have originated in birds killed more than 40 million people around the world. Subsequent pandemics in 1957 and 1968 had lower death rates but still caused widespread disruption |
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libbyalex
Adviser Group Joined: December 20 2005 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 795 |
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Hi Muskrat -- I just caught it to and posted it under another thread so it is good that this has it's own headline! The fact that the UN is talking about it in these terms sure adds even more gravity to the situation, eh? -- Libby
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The beginning of the normal flu season was in late November and early December. When the normal flu hit the U.S in December, that was "the beginning" of flu season. "The height" of flu season hits between January and Marh. We are about to be hit with a sizeable wave of the normal flu. My concern is that the normal flu viruses that start every year usually begin in Asia and then they work their way over here. By the time the flu makes it here, we already have the vaccine ready. My concern is that H5N1 is the primary influenza strain in Asia at the moment, which means that the next influenza wave could be H5N1. This is probably why Nabarro is expecting it soon. All of the above is just my opinion.
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Corn
Valued Member Joined: December 13 2005 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 1219 |
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And the two mutations are.......Republican and Democrat
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Speculation is the only tool we have with a threat that can circle the globe in 30 days. Test results&news is slow.Factor in human conditions,politics, money&bingo!The truth!Facts come after the fact.
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Doodlebug
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 18 2006 Status: Offline Points: 82 |
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Muskrat, I can't seem to get either of the links to the original
article to work. Would you mind checking them again on your
end? Maybe it's because I'm in Netscape or something, but I'd
really like to print this from the original source. Thanks.
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Corn
Valued Member Joined: December 13 2005 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 1219 |
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Try this search. good up to the minute! |
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Speculation is the only tool we have with a threat that can circle the globe in 30 days. Test results&news is slow.Factor in human conditions,politics, money&bingo!The truth!Facts come after the fact.
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Doodlebug
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 18 2006 Status: Offline Points: 82 |
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That did it, Corn. It's printing now. And you're right - that is a great site!
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Doodlebug
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 18 2006 Status: Offline Points: 82 |
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Whoops!! Forgot to say "thank you" Corn
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I clicked on the links and both of them work fine at this end...
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Fiddlerdave
Valued Member Joined: February 09 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 259 |
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I have been most concerned with the outbreak (which by every indications is underreported) in Africa. Having read the book The Coming Plague by Laurie Garrett, a serious and reputable microbiologist who makes the technical issues clear to the layman. Among many other issues, she explains how a large pool of sick, poor, improperly treated people (thy name is Africa!) with compromised immune systems is the perfect breeding ground for disease mutations which we would desire least to occur. The book was terrifying reading PRIOR to the Bird Flu. But if you would like to have a backround for many of the topics that are current today, it would be excellant to read.
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Dave
"Ask not for whom the bell tolls, it tolls for us"! |
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steve 101
Adviser Group Joined: February 07 2006 Location: New Zealand Status: Offline Points: 138 |
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if they are saying 2 mutations away i think we can assume it is closer than that. What comes out of Africa may very well be much worse than what went in
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Teagen
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 06 2006 Location: Canada Status: Offline Points: 45 |
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Exactly. No ones knows what is happening in Africa now. The mutations may have already occured. Remember that in both Turkey and Iraq humans showed signs of BF before it was reported in birds. It was a month after it was reported in birds that it was determined it was BF in Nigeria. How many people in Nigeria have died of BF like symptoms in the last month and it been attributed to another disease ? |
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yes and so like who to be too late and too little
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I would like someone to start a post from different countries to get idea of what happening in Hong Kong and China . Im not a good writer and it would require a good moderator . This post would get more interesting as thing move along.AND be a important source o f imformation
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don't we have a member from China already? I thought I had noticed them earlier in the month, posted stuff from a message board?
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Kumera Kid
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 11 2006 Location: New Zealand Status: Offline Points: 33 |
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So much is happening in so many locations that it is becoming impossible to keep track. A simple note as to number suspected human cases and number of deaths in each location would certainly help
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Somebody posted this link the other day; everytime I click on it there are more & more CHICKEN icons (they rep where bird flu is) Makes it very 'in your face'. It's gone for 6 chicken icons to however many are there now in the past week http://visz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/woalert.php?lang=eng
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Corn
Valued Member Joined: December 13 2005 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 1219 |
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Looks likw they added Slovenia and Nigeria or Italy |
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Speculation is the only tool we have with a threat that can circle the globe in 30 days. Test results&news is slow.Factor in human conditions,politics, money&bingo!The truth!Facts come after the fact.
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