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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

OT: Global Warming

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Mahshadin View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mahshadin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 12 2006 at 10:41am
Dispens the problem is not your posts but who you used as factual data
 
Junkscience.com  Published by a Media columnist for FOX NEWS
 
Steven Milloy. 
 
Who just happens to be a paid advocate of Exon-Mobile (Indirectly)
 
 Is that not like trusting the fox with the hen house.
 
Its this kind of irresponsible publishing that is at fault for creating so much confusion. And oh by the way that is what Exon among others want. If confused the population does nothing.
 
Do nothing and hope for the best is that the plan (╠╠µ╫┼º)
"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act."   G Orwell
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mahshadin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 12 2006 at 6:37pm
"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act."   G Orwell
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 12 2006 at 7:10pm
And nothing will be done about it.  There is too much money being made to change anything. What will happen will happen. The oil will run out anyway, and with it our modern way of life, including being able to feed so many people. The massive corporate farms use much oil in the form of fuel, and to produce pesticides, herbicides and fertilizers to produce massive crops with little insect damage. No oil, no where near as much food. the natural correction in the earth will eventually happen, whether its a major  very lethal pandemic, oil becoming two expensive to support the economy, or global warming, or all three.
 
No one will do anything about it, because too much money is involved.
And yes, doing nothing will destroy the economy and the environment eventually, but doing something significant now will cost too much money now.
 
 
 
JMHO
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 12 2006 at 7:29pm

As an advisor if all you have to add is
.........................................................................

I think advisor just means we have more hot air than some.
................................................................................................
In the UK that means tall hats and itchy clothes and corsets?
Not sure about that
In the US it must mean cowboys and Indians
............................................................................................................

no, it means itchy denim and calico (no woman in her right mind
would wear a corset (during daylight hours)
...............................................................................................................

At this rate of expansion the time may come when almost every family has a car. No wonder the planet is choking itself to death. I blame the Germans of course.
...........................................................................................................................................

All of China is wanting a car....

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 12 2006 at 7:36pm

This topic is like being forced to play cards when you didn't even know there was a game being played.  All of a sudden you are called "All in"  Your mind is racing, "I just got here and what do you mean there is no oil left,...there is global hunger... Bird Flu???  Wait a minute?? I pay taxes, my parents paid taxes!!! Where did all the money go?,  How did this all happen???  Welcome to the final table!!  No longer are we only responsible for ourselves, participation in the global pot at the end of the rainbow requires an ante many are unaware of.  To benefit from the oil well that "never stops" we must contribute our fair shair to support the have's and also help the have nots because all other countries are not as fortunate and expect us to carry the burden.  Well guess what?  We are very glad to meet the worlds expectations and do the work many are not so eagar to do.  The US of A will proudly ( warts and all) move forward to meet all challenges it will face and prevail!!!   ("loud cheers and anthemic music")

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mahshadin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 12 2006 at 7:43pm
Hey dispens do you also swallow th Steve Milloy Bird flu summary
Full article on FOX NEWS SITE.
 
Basically he says like everything dont worry and dont spend any government money (Sound Familiar)
 
 
"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act."   G Orwell
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mahshadin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 12 2006 at 7:53pm
The need to think posatively about this subject is in great need. The commitment to solving these issues will create new indunstries and economic growth. yes  some sectors will feel pain but if they were on top of it they would be hedging their bets on the solutions not trying to convice everyone to ignore it and buy a bigger SUV.
 
If all of the money that was and is being spent to dismiss and confuse was spent on the solutions we would probably be half way there already.
"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act."   G Orwell
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mahshadin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 12 2006 at 8:09pm
Here is a peak at the future ___________________________________
 
February 2005

Army Scrutinizing Stealthy, Clean Vehicle

edited by Robert H. Williams

The U.S. Army in conjunction with Quantum Technologies, Irvine, Calif., has developed a speedy off-road vehicle that is powered by a compressed hydrogen fuel cell and is capable of producing electrical power for surveillance, targeting and communications.

Called the Aggressor Alternative Mobility Vehicle, it offers superior performance to gasoline or diesel powered platforms, is “virtually silent” in its operating modes and boasts a “reduced thermal signature,” noted a company spokesman.

He added that the Aggressor is exceptionally clean. It does not “produce any emissions throughout the different operating modes.”

The vehicle will be tested at several Army posts during the course of the next six months.

Meanwhile, Dennis Wend, executive director of the Army’s National Automotive Center, suggested the Aggressor stands as a “model for more efficient, high performance stealth vehicles through the use of fuel cells and advanced hybrid electric drivetrain technologies.”

It is the first fuel cell vehicle produced for the Army.

 
"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act."   G Orwell
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mahshadin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 12 2006 at 8:15pm
2002 test_______________________________________________
 
AUBURN HILLS, Mich. –– Volkswagen has announced the first long-range test drive of its innovative HY.POWER fuel-cell car. On the same mountainous journey, Volkswagen also successfully tested a high-tech Jetta Turbo Direct Injection diesel using a super-clean synthetic diesel called SunFuel®. SunFuel is a non-traditional low-sulfur fuel that can be made from renewable sources such as plants, waste products and other raw materials.

Both cars were tested in the depths of winter and driven over the demanding 6,578-foot high Simplon Pass that connects Switzerland and Italy.
 
 
"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act."   G Orwell
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 12 2006 at 8:20pm
Mahshadin,
 
Trouble is  is we were already there 15 years ago.  Our problem is the Bushes and their buddies got there first.  All these sensible, "green" technologies are non-competitive because of basic economics.  The US and global dependance on cruide oil goes so much further than a fill up of your SUV at the gas pump.  Our economy as well as emerging economies (punch in emerging Democratic economies) are nursing at the oil wells too.  Just as infants do,  they depend on a sustainable supply of their liquid fuel.  As long as we need our cars, hot water, plastic tupperware, sun screen and hair sprays, we will have to cater to, glad hand, and other wise support the countries that still can produce oil at less than $70.00 per barrel.  Over that price, oil in Canada, Alaska and 1000 feet deep in the Gulf of Mexico is now a steal and don't think we won't.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mahshadin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 12 2006 at 8:20pm
The technology is here and would not take
but a few financial nudges by the government to make it a reality (My opinion)_______________________________________________________________________
Hydrogen Cars

Hydrogen cars are not only the future, they are here, now. When hydrogen cars become the status quo, the U. S. can lessen its dependence upon foreign oil, achieve lower prices at the fuel pumps and cut down on the greenhouse gases that produce global warming. The future of hydrogen cars is not a pipe dream, as there are already many hydrogen cars on the road. California and Japan has many hydrogen cars being used as fleet vehicles now.

< = =text/> < = ="http://ypn-js.overture.com/partner/js/ypn.js">

In 2005, Honda leased the first commercial hydrogen car to a family in Redondo Beach, California. Pictured Right.

Honda FCX
Honda FCX Hydrogen Car

For the past 28 years, the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) has been conducting research on hydrogen fuel cells for use in transportation, industry and residential use. According to the LANL, "Hydrogen & Fuel Cell Research at Los Alamos has made significant technological advances in Polymer Electrolyte Membrane (PEM) fuel cells, Direct Methanol Fuel Cells (DMFC), and related technologies such as the electrolyzer (a fuel cell in reverse, liberating hydrogen from electricity and pure water)."

Unlike many of the hybrid and "green" cars currently on the market, hydrogen cars offer the promise of zero emission technology, where the only byproduct from the cars is water vapor. Current fossil-fuel burning vehicles emit all sorts of pollutants such as carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, nitrous oxide, ozone and microscopic particulate matter. Hybrids and other green cars address these issues to a large extent but only hydrogen cars hold the promise of zero emission of pollutants. The Environmental Protection Agency estimates that fossil-fuel automobiles emit 1 ½ billion tons of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere each year and going to hydrogen-based transportation would all but eliminate this.

Not only that, but hydrogen cars will lessen the United State's dependence upon foreign oil. The so-called "hydrogen highways" will mean less dependence upon OPEC, the big U. S. oil companies, oil refinery malfunctions and breakdowns and less resistance from oil selling nations like Venezuela and Saudi Arabia or from hostile nations who would rather sell elsewhere. Consumers will finally get a break from the never-ending rising prices at the gasoline pumps.

President Bush has already allocated approximately $2 billion in hydrogen highway research. California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is pushing to get 200 hydrogen filling stations built within the next 5 years stretching from Vancouver, British Columbia, all the way down to Baja, California. Since Californians buy one-fifth of the nation's cars, the new hydrogen car technology could simply replace the current gasoline engine automobiles in what is called "disruptive technology" where something so innovative comes along it simply replaces the old technology very quickly.

Then again, a more likely scenario is that dual-fuel automotive systems will be developed that can run on either gasoline or hydrogen as the hydrogen infrastructure is being developed. The conversion from gasoline-powered internal combustion engines to hydrogen powered combustion engines is agreed upon by most scientists and engineers to be a particularly easy transition and would buy time for hydrogen fuel cell cars to be fully adapted. Hydrogen cars are the future, so why not take a test drive of this website right now and see what you'll be driving a few short years from now. The hydrogen economy is just around the bend. Will you be ready?


 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 12 2006 at 8:28pm
Great idea, great concept! But the insurance industry won't touch them with a ten foot pole, make that a 20 yard pole! The technology is dangerous and not supported by the White Hen or 7/11 gas stations.  Think Chevy Corvair or Ford Pinto...dangerous enough with gasoline just imagine explosive hydrogen!!!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mahshadin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 12 2006 at 8:58pm

these examples are just a few that are reality now but underfunded research and development has caused this and other technologies to be slow in coming.

And where is a lot of the money going for research and development?
 
over 10 billion dollars in five years to find and develop more fossil fuels to burn up.
 
 
Ontop of that these same companies have piled up ove a 100 billion dollars in profits in the past seven years (Yes that Billions)
 
 
The question just begs to be asked:
 
Any ideas
"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act."   G Orwell
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mahshadin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 12 2006 at 9:13pm

this is just one avenuw on transportation and research and development it need . The point is why are we spending billions of dollars on a sytem that is now failing us. I would rather my tax dollars being spent on solutions rather than lining the pockets of companies that are already raking in billions on our current system.

Just my opinion

"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act."   G Orwell
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 13 2006 at 3:50am
Mahshadin,
 
All very good points and excellent questions.  I ask the same ones every time I fill up my Ford Expedition with $70.00 of gasoline.  A perfect example of a failed system supported by flawed policy run by a government  influeneced by huge sums of money from an oil industry with ties to the most influencial and ruthless individuals in the world.  Just for the record,  I gave up a small Chevy for the Company owned Expedition I drive because of a Federal Tax break incentive given to businesses in 2004 that allowed for a complete write off of the purchase of any vehicle over 6000 pounds.  That is why you see so bloody many of these monstrosities on the road right now.   Thank you very little Mr. Bush.
Thank God I'm not in China or I'd be off to jail instead of going to work! 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mahshadin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 13 2006 at 4:09pm
Cruiser did you say full tax break for the vehicle? or was it just a portion like now if you buy a hybred you can recieve somewhere between 1,000 nd 2,600. but even these incentives which are a posative step are due to expire or go down soon.
 
How long ago was this?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 13 2006 at 4:16pm
I wrote that it was for the 2004 tax season and that was the last year offered and it did allow for a complete deduction of the vehicles entire cost.  Anybody with a business could take the write off.  Only the biggest of the SUV's hit the 6,000 lb minimum weight requirement.  Looking back now it seems a bit crazy especially with cost of gas.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 13 2006 at 4:47pm
This morning woke up to ABC radio Australia , they were heading the news with Al Gore and EL Nino , were just about out of water in some areas and the areas that have water will be put on level 4/5 water retrictions . El Nino is in Pacific Ocean and that will impact on us down under big time . heres the article
 
El Nino weather pattern forms in Pacific

By Rene Pastor Wed Sep 13, 1:54 PM ET

NEW YORK (Reuters) - El Nino, an extreme warming of equatorial waters in the Pacific Ocean that wreaks havoc with world weather conditions, has formed and will last into 2007, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said on Wednesday.

The El Nino has already helped make the Atlantic hurricane season milder than expected, said a forecaster for the NOAA.

"The weak El Nino is helping to explain why the hurricane season is less than we expected. El Ninos tend to suppress hurricane activity in the Atlantic," said Gerry Bell, a hurricane forecaster for NOAA.

The NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said the El Nino probably will spur warmer-than-average temperatures this winter over western and central Canada and the western and northern United States.

It said El Nino also will cause wetter-than-average conditions in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Florida, and spark dry conditions in the Ohio valley, the Pacific Northwest and most U.S. islands in the tropical Pacific.

In Asia and South America, the last severe El Nino killed hundreds of people and caused billions of dollars in damage as crops shriveled across the Asia-Pacific basin. This El Nino has caused drier-than-average conditions across Indonesia, Malaysia and most of the Philippines.

Indonesia is the most populous Moslem country with over 200 million people, while the Philippines have nearly 90 million. Both are major importers of U.S. grains.

The CPC Web site said surface temperatures were substantially warmer than normal by early September in the Pacific. Scientists detect formation of El Ninos by monitoring sea surface temperatures with a system of buoys.

"Currently, weak El Nino conditions exist, but there is a potential for this event to strengthen into a moderate event by winter," Vernon Kousky, the chief El Nino expert at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, said in a statement.

"The latest...predictions indicate El Nino conditions for the remainder of 2006 and into the northern hemisphere spring (of) 2007," the CPC Web site explained.

El Nino, which means 'little boy' in Spanish, hits once every three years or so. Anchovy fishermen in South America noticed the phenomenon in the 19th century and named it for the Christ child since it appeared around Christmas, and it normally peaks late in the year.

EL NINO HINDERS HURRICANES

One immediate impact of the El Nino is during the current Atlantic hurricane season, which follows on the heels of the record 28 storms and 15 hurricanes which struck in 2005.

Last year's howlers included monsters like Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma. But this El Nino apparently has helped hinder storm formation in 2006. So far, there has only been seven tropical storms and two hurricanes halfway through the hurricane season, which begins June 1 and ends November 30.

Scientists said El Ninos disrupt storm formation because it allows wind shear to rip apart thunderstorms in the center of the hurricanes, reducing power and intensity as a result.

U.S. NORTHEAST IN FOR MILDER WINTER

An El Nino also usually leads to milder winter weather in the U.S. northeast, the top heating oil market in the world.

Bell said scientists will have a better idea in the fall how long this El Nino will last. "There's no way to say at this time how strong it is going to be. It's too early," he said.

The last severe El Nino struck in 1997/98. The weather phenomenon caused searing drought in Indonesia, Australia and the Philippines while causing rampant flooding in Ecuador and Chile, the world's top producer of copper. Confused 

The NOAA's climate prediction Web site is: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_a dvisory/index.html

(Additional reporting by Jim Loney in Miami)

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 13 2006 at 5:42pm
Mashadin, thank you for your reasonable reply to my post.  I was not aware or the connection to fox news that junk science had.  I freely admit fox has a conservative slant, and would be a  warning flag to a liberal.  I am not convinced of your viewpoint, but by exchanging ideas without rancor I have learned something. That is the point I have been trying to make.  Listen to the other side of issues, learn what you can, and make your own decisions.  There is nothing insulting about somebody having a different point of view.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote marks6555 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 13 2006 at 9:36pm
saw a NGC program tonite

the sun is alive and will die

an analogy for the sun's life is that it was born at 6 am and will die at 6 pm

humans came around during one second somewhere around 10:36 am.

by 11:30 am the sun will expand and destroy the inner planets (ie Earth)

WE NEED THE SPACE PROGRAM
When the going gets weird, the weird turns pro. -HST
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MelodyAtHome Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 13 2006 at 10:15pm

Marks6555 I agree with you that we need the space program. I not think humans will make it as far as when the sun engulfs us...I think someone is going to send that nuke off or some other super disaster before then will take us out...we need the space program because it is going to take a VERY long time to actually have something set up to get regular folk out into space to new settlements. I'm guessing a couple hundred years or more. I have the NASa station and watch our meager space station up there and think we have a very long way to go.

I know there are those who don't think we should spend $$ on the space program that we should feed our poor...BUT there won't be any poor or rich people if you don't figure out a 2nd home for the future.

Smile

Melody
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Samoa Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 14 2006 at 1:52am
I've been in Fiji for a week, haven't logged on in awhile.
In an earlier post Scotty mentioned that the Taiga, the peat bogs of Siberia, are thawing.  Looks like he read that interview with James Lovelock last week.  Yes, the tundra in Siberia has been releasing Methane in huge quantaties for the past decade or so.  More disturbing is the fact that the huge Coniferous forests of Siberia are drying out.  Some day, probably soon, these will start to burn.  If the peat is dry enough, it too will burn.  That could be the last straw.  I think Lovelock said something like that, I don't care for that whole "Gaia" philosophy.  Sorry, I just can't believe that we are somehow "telepathically connected" to the Earth. 

I do believe that our species is in jeopardy however.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mahshadin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 14 2006 at 1:23pm
Dispencer
 
I guess we can agree to disagree for now.
 
Oh I am not a liberal on all issues and do watch some of Fox News as well as CNN and others with those two being my two favorites. If we were discussing other issues like Immigration you would probaly think I was a flaming Right Wing Conservative.
 
I do not believe in hanging my hat on one side all of the time. There is no way that one sifde can be right one hundred percent of the time.
 
I wish there was somthing in the middle (PARTY)
 
Anyway your right discussion of ideas is the best and most logical path. 
 
"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act."   G Orwell
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mahshadin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 14 2006 at 1:38pm

Cruiser

Thats amazing (The Entire Vehicle Price).
 
Arent those vehicles 40,000 plus in price??
 
Thats almost enough to buy two Toyata Camry Hybreds. But this might not be a fair analogy, I am sure that was soley intended as a Ecinomical growth stimulator for small BIZ. To bad there were not better choices in that Category.
 
And I am not dissin you I to bought a Large SUV Ford Expedition. I chose that vehicle for its ability to transport a large family and for long Family vacations which for us a trip back home is over 1800 miles. Pretty soon the money I spend to drive that distance will be equal to a down payment on a house (LOL).
 
We now have delegated this vehicle to part-Time duty and a short trip to work and back monday through friday. I am now looking at a motorbike as a replacement for this scenario since I live in an area where I could drive it most of the year. The Chug a Lug will have to sit in the garage and only hauled out for trailoring or long Vacations.
"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act."   G Orwell
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mahshadin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 14 2006 at 7:31pm
  • 15:53 01 September 2006
  • NewScientist.com news service
  • Fred Pearce
  •  
    Climate Change - Learn more in our continually updated special report.

    Climate change is with us. A decade ago, it was conjecture. Now the future is unfolding before our eyes. Canada's Inuit see it in disappearing Arctic ice and permafrost. The shantytown dwellers of Latin America and Southern Asia see it in lethal storms and floods. Europeans see it in disappearing glaciers, forest fires and fatal heat waves.

    Scientists see it in tree rings, ancient coral and bubbles trapped in ice cores. These reveal that the world has not been as warm as it is now for a millennium or more. The three warmest years on record have all occurred since 1998; 19 of the warmest 20 since 1980. And Earth has probably never warmed as fast as in the past 30 years - a period when natural influences on global temperatures, such as solar cycles and volcanoes should have cooled us down. Studies of the thermal inertia of the oceans suggest that there is more warming in the pipeline.

    Climatologists reporting for the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) say we are seeing global warming caused by human activities and there are growing fears of feedbacks that will accelerate this warming.

    Global greenhouse

    People are causing the change by burning nature's vast stores of coal, oil and natural gas. This releases billions of tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) every year, although the changes may actually have started with the dawn of agriculture, say some scientists.

    The physics of the "greenhouse effect" has been a matter of scientific fact for a century. CO2 is a greenhouse gas that traps the Sun's radiation within the troposphere, the lower atmosphere. It has accumulated along with other man-made greenhouse gases, such as methane and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs).

    If current trends continue, we will raise atmospheric CO2 concentrations to double pre-industrial levels during this century. That will probably be enough to raise global temperatures by around 2°C to 5°C. Some warming is certain, but the degree will be determined by feedbacks involving melting ice, the oceans, water vapour, clouds and changes to vegetation.

    Warming is bringing other unpredictable changes. Melting glaciers and precipitation are causing some rivers to overflow, while evaporation is emptying others. Diseases are spreading. Some crops grow faster while others see yields slashed by disease and drought. Strong hurricanes are becoming more frequent and destructive. Arctic sea ice is melting faster every year, and there are growing fears of a shutdown of the ocean currents that keep Europe warm for its latitude. Clashes over dwindling water resources may cause conflicts in many regions.

    As natural ecosystems - such as coral reefs - are disrupted, biodiversity is reduced. Most species cannot migrate fast enough to keep up, though others are already evolving in response to warming.

    Thermal expansion of the oceans, combined with melting ice on land, is also raising sea levels. In this century, human activity could trigger an irreversible melting of the Greenland ice sheet and Antarctic glaciers. This would condemn the world to a rise in sea level of six metres - enough to flood land occupied by billions of people.

    The global warming would be more pronounced if it were not for sulphur particles and other pollutants that shade us, and because forests and oceans absorb around half of the CO2 we produce. But the accumulation rate of atmospheric CO2 has increased since 2001, suggesting that nature's ability to absorb the gas could now be stretched to the limit. Recent research suggests that natural CO2 "sinks", like peat bogs and forests, are actually starting to release CO2.

    Deeper cuts

    At the Earth Summit in 1992, the world agreed to prevent "dangerous" climate change. The first step was the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, which finally came into force during 2005. It will bring modest emission reductions from industrialised countries. But many observers say deeper cuts are needed and developing nations, which have large and growing populations, will one day have to join in.

    Some, including the US Bush administration, say the scientific uncertainty over the pace of climate change is grounds for delaying action. The US and Australia have reneged on Kyoto. During 2005 these countries, and others, suggested "clean fuel" technologies as an alternative to emissions cuts.

    In any case, according to the IPCC, the world needs to quickly improve the efficiency of its energy usage and develop renewable non-carbon fuels like: wind, solar, tidal, wave and perhaps nuclear power. It also means developing new methods of converting this clean energy into motive power, like hydrogen fuel cells for cars. Trading in Kyoto carbon permits may help.

    Other less conventional solutions include ideas to stave off warming by "mega-engineering" the planet with giant mirrors to deflect the Sun's rays, seeding the oceans with iron to generate algal blooms, or burying greenhouse gases below the sea.

    The bottom line is that we will need to cut CO2 emissions by 70% to 80% simply to stabilise atmospheric CO2 concentrations - and thus temperatures. The quicker we do that, the less unbearably hot our future world will be.

     
    "In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act."   G Orwell
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    Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mahshadin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 14 2006 at 8:15pm

    When it comes to climate change, I'll take a small bet that Pascal was right

    Gerard Baker

    Unless the sceptics are really, really certain that we’re all going to be OK, we must act nowWhen it comes to climate change, I'll take a small bet that Pascal was right

    IF I WERE inclined to be agnostic I’ve always thought I’d be tempted to take a punt on Pascal’s Wager. Blaise Pascal, as you know, was a theologian-mathematician back in the days when it was still respectable for Frenchmen to be clever and religious. His combined musings on probability theory and the human condition led him to a formulation that belief in a God and the afterlife was the only prudent intellectual course of action.

    The calculation is simple. If you believe in God and live a God-fearing life, and it turns out there is a God, then, when the time comes, you’ll be rewarded with a place in paradise for ever. If there isn’t one, and you’ve lived the religious life, then you will end up, infinitely speaking, the same as everyone else, and no worse off than the atheist who spent his life deriding religious belief as superstitious nonsense.

     
    But if you don’t believe in God and live a generally irreligious life, you’re taking one hell of a gamble. If it turns out you were right all along, and there’s no God and no afterlife, so what? You won’t even have the pleasure of a nanosecond of gloating at the ineffable stupidity of your God-bothering fellow ex-human beings. The very moment of your intellectual triumph and existential vindication is also the precise moment at which its significance collapses to literal nothingness. That will be it. Lights out. For ever.

    But if it turns out there is a God, and you’ve spent your earthly span denying his existence and generally poking fun at believers you’re going to feel a bit sick when St Peter shows up on the other side, ledger in one hand and one-way ticket to the Underworld in the other.

    Therefore, Pascal said, the sensible thing to do is to resist the atheist temptation. The best on offer is a lifelong sense of smug superiority in this world. The worst is eternal damnation. The costs of being wrong are so high that they would require a level of confidence in your unbelief that is humanly impossible. Why chance it? Pascal’s Wager, it seems to me, is a good starting point for consideration of climate change. Belief in global warming and its human provenance seems to have replaced traditional religion as the faith of the secular.

    Politicians and the media accept the wisdom of climate-change believer with the same unquestioning devotion that medieval peasants and monarchs used to bring to the Church. Scientists predict earthly conflagration with all the confidence with which 17th-century divines used to caution about eternal hellfire.

    For myself, I prefer the old religion, and count myself still a bit of an agnostic on climate change. Certainly, the evidence is clear that the earth has been getting warmer, and certainly the preponderance of scientific opinion is that our emissions of greenhouse gases have played at least a highly significant role in that.

    But there remains enough doubt in there to merit a cautious agnosticism. Unquestioning faith in current scientific hypothesis opinion is not always rewarded with consistent conclusions (ask Pluto).

    On this as on any other subject we agnostics don’t have the luxury of being hermits, whose philosophy is summed up in the injunction: don’t just do something, stand there! What are we actually supposed to do in a world of high uncertainty?

    This is where our friend Pascal comes in. If we believe in global warming and do something about it and it turns out we’re right, then we’re, climatologically speaking, redeemed — if not for ever, at least until some other threat to our existence comes along.

    If we’re wrong about it, what is the ultimate cost? A world with improved energy efficiency and quite a lot of ugly windmills.

    If we don’t believe in global warming and do nothing about it, and we’re right, so what? Our distant posterity will be able to cite us approvingly in future opinion columns. But if our unbelief turns out to be unsupported by the outcome and we’ve done nothing about global warming in the meantime, then we’re in a position analogous to the atheist at the gates of heaven. We will spend not eternity, but perhaps the rest of the earth’s existence, ruing our folly.

    Now there is one significant risk that makes this equation slightly different from Pascal’s. There could be high costs of believing in the human role in global warming and being wrong about it. We may have to trade off a lot of economic activity in the next 50 years to lower our carbon emissions.

    It is certainly a risk. And yet these costs might actually be lower than is sometimes feared. Like virtue, improving energy efficiency is its own reward. Individual companies such as Wal-Mart are already discovering that the costs of reducing their carbon footprint are offset heavily by efficiency gains.

    For whole economies the equation is not necessarily as attractive but there’s still reason to believe that efficiencies can reduce the long-term net costs of investment in alternative energy sources. There are, besides, other incalculable benefits of shifting our energy-use patterns — reducing our economic and strategic dependence on Middle Eastern oil, for one.

    In modern game theory Pascal’s Wager is called the maximin criterion. When confronted with a choice of actions in conditions of uncertainty, the correct choice is the course whose worst outcome is least harmful. That puts the burden of proof on to the global-warming sceptics. Unless you’re really, really certain that we’re all going to be fine, then the only prudent course is to act now to reduce emissions. The costs of understating the threat are much higher than the costs of overstating it.

    The wise thing to do, then, is to invest in alternative energy and change public policy so as to raise fuel emission standards and penalise overconsumption. Kyoto, of course, is a dead letter, but renewed efforts at international co-operation are also essential. If I were a betting man, I’d wager that old Pascal is, even now, smiling in agreement.

     
    "In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act."   G Orwell
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    Judy View Drop Down
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    Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Judy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 14 2006 at 10:23pm
     It may take a pandemic to save this planet from human beings; but I have felt all along that the planet would survive.  It's the life forms that are in danger, and that is why we are so worried about global warming. Pandemic, global warming; either way a lot of people are going to die, and survivors will live in a totally different world. Cry
     
     
    If ignorance is bliss, what is chocolate?
       
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    Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mahshadin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 15 2006 at 10:12am
    Judy I agree and disagree
     
    Sometimes we humans do not act until the problem is thrust in our faces and we can all recognise it. This is truly a problem especially when dealing with a problem that slowly progresses over time.
     
    However another way is through education and action. A good example lately on a much smaller scale would be the Dubai Ports deal in the USA. With Security and Terrorizm such a problem so states our president, the dea theat we would sell off our Ports of entry to a Middle Eastern state with recent ties to these same organizations was unacceptable to the American People and they spoke out to there representatives. The deal was stopped but if not for the education of the public and the public taking action through representaion this would not have happened.
    "In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act."   G Orwell
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    Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jofg Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 15 2006 at 11:54am
    Originally posted by Mahshadin Mahshadin wrote:

    A good example lately on a much smaller scale would be the Dubai Ports deal in the USA. With Security and Terrorizm such a problem so states our president, the dea theat we would sell off our Ports of entry to a Middle Eastern state with recent ties to these same organizations was unacceptable to the American People and they spoke out to there representatives. The deal was stopped but if not for the education of the public and the public taking action through representaion this would not have happened.
     
    OK this is thread drift and I appoligize but I think the media generaly did a poor job of reporting the the facts on the Ports deal.  Some facts that people probably don't realize is that 80% of our terminals are owned/managed by foriegn owners. The deal in question was when DPW (a state-run company or United Arab Emerites - a US ally) planned to buy out a british company (P&O) who happened to own a number of US ports. Security was not going to change at these ports (t would still be managed by US customs and the US Coast Guard).  Lavor was still going to be by US citizens - the Longshoreman Union came out in support of the deal.
     
    There's a lot more (or less depending on your point of view!) to the deal then was generally reported at the time.  But like I said, that's thread drift and OT and can be discussed in a new thread if anyone really cares anymore!  Smile
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    Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote emmajones Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 15 2006 at 12:05pm
    I know you're right about that Ports deal. It wouldn't have made it any easier for a terrorist to get in and do damage. The media spun it that way, just like they spin everything the way that they want.   They have an agenda just like everybody else.   
    b4giving
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    Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mahshadin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 15 2006 at 2:09pm

    I guess I didnt clarify enough. Its not wether the ports deal was right or wrong or if since we have alowed it in the past we should just keep allowing it now.

    It was to make the point that the people run this country (USA) and any other Democratic Country. The issues are not always decided by the very few in power.  When the population decides its any issue the Government will have to follow or face the voters on the next voting cycle. To often people just throw up their hands and say (My Vote or Opinion Does Not Matter Anyway). 
     
    This is just not true and the example I used was just that an example.  How the publics opinions got changed is another story and discussion altogether.  The power of this country and any Democratic Society is its people not the temporary Office holders in Washington or any other Capital around the World. Your opinion matters, My opinion matters, our opinions matter, and exercising that opinion is the process of communicating with our representatives. It is not hard these days to communicate with your representatives and believe it or not they do listen.
     
    That was all I was trying to say
    "In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act."   G Orwell
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    Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote emmajones Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 15 2006 at 3:58pm
    Sorry, Mahshadin. I see your point and you're right about that. Thanks for the clarification.

    Although I have to add (and everyone can ignore me or start a separate thread), the United States was never intended to be a true Democracy. The founding fathers intended our government to be a republic (and I don't mean the party.) In a democracy the majority of the people rule, i.e. if 10 vote for it and 11 vote against it, it doesn't happen. Very simple. In a republic the majority of the people elect another person to represent them. Ideally, the elected representatives are honorable people who make sound decisions that are in the best interest of the common good. Unfortunately, there's not a whole lot of that going around these days.
    b4giving
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