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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Now tracking the new emerging South Africa Omicron Variant

pandemic breakfast

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 21 2022 at 2:38am

part 2, 

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/origins/preprint-sars-cov-2-may-have-originated-as-an-infectious-clone-assembled-in-vitro/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/origins/preprint-sars-cov-2-may-have-originated-as-an-infectious-clone-assembled-in-vitro/ DJ-I think the discussion on the origen of CoViD-19 -in the present US made cold war- can not be constructive...only end up in propaganda-Russia, China blame the US-biolabs...The US claiming "China did it"....

In general-"nature" did cause lots of very deathly diseases in the past...NOT stopping the spread of diseases/variants is another (endless...) discussion...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/must-read-covid-19-is-nothing-but-a-microvascular-and-endothelial-disease-that-kills-fast-or-slowly-depending-on-the-human-host-health-status[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/must-read-covid-19-is-nothing-but-a-microvascular-and-endothelial-disease-that-kills-fast-or-slowly-depending-on-the-human-host-health-status CoViD-19 causing infection "where receptors are" all over the body...So we may see lots of surprises...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/stanford-study-shows-u-s-cdc-guideline-of-5-day-isolation-period-for-covid-19-is-inadequate-especially-when-ba-2-variants-and-its-sub-lineages-are-con[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/stanford-study-shows-u-s-cdc-guideline-of-5-day-isolation-period-for-covid-19-is-inadequate-especially-when-ba-2-variants-and-its-sub-lineages-are-con cerned...DJ 5 day-isolation-no further test needed to check if the virus is still there...CDC pushing anti-science "for sale"...

DJ-I make a difference between;

-Long CoViD (LC); dealing with the damage virus infection did bring all over the body...(some permanent...)

-Chronic CoViD (CC); virus still active in organs-after 4 weeks...maybe still detectable in stool-samples...A problem with the virus still (hiding) in the body is a person may restart spreading the virus later on....Often it is named "re-infection" but lots of indications that with chronic CoViD the virus simply never left...

The US-CDC and lots of other (often western) countries seem to have only one priority; economy=profits...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nirmatrelvir[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nirmatrelvir Paxlovid-another Pfizer product-now also will be used in Europe...So western pandemic strategy is based on two major companies; 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pfizer[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pfizer

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moderna[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moderna 

Both US companies making billions out of this pandemic...I can live with it if it would be effective...however -yes cases in Europe seem to be going down-the pandemics are only getting worse...

Statistics-as indication [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table 

c=cases, d=deaths

Global c-13%, d-10% ( cases from 3,265,000 down to 2,850,000 as far as tested/reported-still 6,1 million cases being reported last two weeks...just under 0,1% of the global population did test positive the last two weeks.....). 

Europe c-19% d+2%

Asia c+4% d+4%

South America c+21% (!!!) d-7%

Africa c+13% d-65%

North Americ c-24%, d-35% and Oceania c-39%, d-47% may have escaped this wave...

[url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data UK cases also going down-for now-with the UK in fact now having FIVE peaks of cases in 2022...

DJ Countries do "a very good job" in NOT reporting MPX cases [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory[/url] of course Polio, Ebola also NOT making the news...









3) work done by the Health Finance Institute  has "continuously shown that each dollar invested in chronic disease risk factor prevention such as reduction of physical inactivity yields returns up to seven times of the dollar invested."

DJ [url]https://www.cbsnews.com/news/world-health-organization-report-physical-activity-heart-disease-obseity-diabetes-diseases-risk/[/url] or https://www.cbsnews.com/news/world-health-organization-report-physical-activity-heart-disease-obseity-diabetes-diseases-risk/ Due to CoViD use of public transport decreased-often still below pre-pandemic levels...High petrol/diesel prices only "pushed" a limited number of people out of car-use...Investments in bike-paths did decrease in my region...higher energy prices, inflation is limiting that kind of (healthy, green) investments...airquality is a major problem in NL -and other countries...[url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/10/19/netherlands-ranks-4th-childrens-rights-despite-air-pollution-youth-care-waitlists[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/10/19/netherlands-ranks-4th-childrens-rights-despite-air-pollution-youth-care-waitlists ;

KidsRights looks at how countries protect five fundamental rights of children. Children in the Netherlands have good opportunities at school and are well-protected, which is why the Netherlands ranks high on the list year after year.


But when it comes to a “favorable environment for the rights of the child,” the Netherlands dropped from 3rd to 37th place in recent years. This is mainly due to long waiting lists in youth care, mental health problems among young people caused by the coronavirus crisis, child poverty, and the deteriorated protection of unaccompanied child asylum seekers. KidsRights expects the Netherlands to drop further in the rankings in the coming years.

Another problem in the Netherlands is air pollution. Nowhere in Europe is there as much nitrogen dioxide in the air as in the Netherlands, said KidsRights. One in five children in the Netherlands has asthma, the highest percentage in Europe.


Last year, when the Netherlands was fifth on the ranking, KidsRights expected the Netherlands could drop significantly in the coming years due to the delayed effect of the coronavirus policy.

Worldwide, Iceland is still the best country to be a child in. Sweden, Finland, Netherlands, and Germany complete the top 5. Chad is the lowest ranked, then Afghanistan, Sierra Leone, the Central African Republic, and Equatorial Guinea.

Countries like Angola, Bangladesh, and Bolivia are making rapid progress. But the overall picture is not positive. In many countries, children’s rights have deteriorated. About 160 million children are forced to work, over 8 million more than a few years ago. Nearly 286,000 children have died due to the indirect effects of the coronavirus pandemic, KidsRights said. And some 25 million babies have missed their first vaccinations due to the cessation of vaccination campaigns.

DJ...NL "government" good in protecting children that do not need government protection...simply ignoring most other problems...Like in lots of other countries the NL government "working most for the rich" not doing enough-even basics-for the rest...(ventilation at schools is good in rich neighbourhoods...)

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/10/21/nearly-5000-covid-19-deaths-first-half-2022-bringing-dutch-total-towards-45000[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/10/21/nearly-5000-covid-19-deaths-first-half-2022-bringing-dutch-total-towards-45000 ;

A total of 1,420 people in the Netherlands died of Covid-19 in the second quarter, down from 3,564 coronavirus deaths in the first quarter of 2022. That brings the total number of confirmed Covid-19 deaths since the start of the pandemic to 44,760, Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reported on Friday.

By comparison, 11,304 people died from the coronavirus disease in the first half of 2021. That marks an improvement of 56 percent. The decrease is likely due to the high vaccination rate in the Netherlands and the fact that the omicron variant dominant in the first half of 2022 is less severe than the delta and alpha variants of the coronavirus that were dominant in the first half of last year.


Covid-19 was responsible for 3.5 percent of all deaths during the second quarter of 2022, compared to 8.3 percent in the first quarter. Two-thirds of people who died of Covid-19 in the second quarter were older than 80. Only six percent were younger than 65.

There was excess mortality in the Netherlands every week of April, May, and June, except for the last week of May. Excess mortality means that more people died than expected for a period. The excess mortality was mainly visible among people over the age of 65 and people living in long-term care institutions.

DJ;

-1 The idea that people die within 4 weeks after a positive CoViD test is wrong...by now we need a more realistic definition...

-2 Worldometers still has NL CoViD deaths at 22,747 NOT the 44,760...The NL-CDC is "pushing" the low number, NL-statistics office the more realistic higher number...[url]https://www.cbs.nl/nl-nl/nieuws/2022/42/1420-mensen-overleden-aan-covid-19-in-tweede-kwartaal[/url] or https://www.cbs.nl/nl-nl/nieuws/2022/42/1420-mensen-overleden-aan-covid-19-in-tweede-kwartaal 

The BIG question...

How are we ever getting out of this pandemic with politics being such an incompetent mess...by starting global wars ? 

It is good most "normal people" seem to have better brains then (western) leaders at this moment...Limiting exposure, masks, can mean a lot...vaccinations -in statistics-did have an effect however new variants-governments sometimes pushing old vaccines ........








We’ve released new SARS-CoV-2 Nextclade datasets with: - new  clade 22E (BQ.1*) - 152 new Pango lineages (all designations up to 2022-10-19) See further details here: https://github.com/nextstrain/nextclade_data/releases/tag/2022-10-19

End of part 2....


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 21 2022 at 11:06pm

DJ, 

For healthcare you need a working economy...for both healthcare, economy...society in general-you need functioning politics...Many fear-for good reason-the UK "chaos" is only the start...both in Europe and "America" there is a very wide gap between "politics/government" and the population...

What 'we" have in common -in the west- is the desire for good healthcare, education, housing for all...disagreement is on "how to get there"....

Politics should be on idea's not ego's....to often "politicians" went for creating/worsening crises to get re-elected/public support...There is NO room left for "stunts"...

-There are claims MPX outbreak is under control...On 23 July, the Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO), Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, declared the outbreak a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC).[17] As of 15 October, there had been a total of 73,087 confirmed cases in over 109 countries.[18][19]

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Chronologically[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Chronologically ...vaccines and change of behavior may have prevented major spread after schoolrestart in september...On top of that lots of places increased ventilation etc. also because CoViD is not over yet...

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uIzyyIsN4wk[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uIzyyIsN4wk Indie SAGE; LIVE: Join us for a discussion on women's health with regard to Covid, with guests Dr Viki Male, Dr Teresa Kelly, Dr Nighat Arif & Dr Louise Newson, hosted by Dr Zubaida Haque & Dr Binita Kane, chaired by Prof Anthony Costello & Prof. Christina Pagel on numbers.

DJ..Polio detected still (as far as reported) in isolated cases-linked to live-virus vaccinations

Cholera may be a big problem from Haïti to Lebanon, Yemen etc. 

Ebola cases in Uganda limited ? One "lucky factor" stopping international spread is those most at risk for Ebola are those least likely even to get close to airports...

DJ-This world is divided in three groups of people;

-the 0,1% claiming to own the planet...or most of it...often several nationalities...houses in several countries...

-The west 10% of global population...claiming they can go all over the planet for vacation...however most of us do not have the money-we claim to have a right...

-The rest, 90% ...we can visit them...but when they visit us they need visas, somebody willing to pay their bills...

In colonial times there was a difference between a "subject" of a country (no voting rights a.o.) and a "citizen"...One Health does not only have to keep an eye on diseases in animals-like H5N1-becoming a risk "for us" but also good healthcare, water, toilets for ALL humans...

If you want to stop pandemics respect people....

Of course on CoViD;

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/great-news-sars-cov-2-xbb-recombinant-variant-spawning-newer-sub-lineages-such-as-xbb-1,-xbb-1-1,-xbb1-2,-xbb-2,-xbb-3,-xbb-3-1,-xbb-4-and-xbb-5[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/great-news-sars-cov-2-xbb-recombinant-variant-spawning-newer-sub-lineages-such-as-xbb-1,-xbb-1-1,-xbb1-2,-xbb-2,-xbb-3,-xbb-3-1,-xbb-4-and-xbb-5 

and 

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-ohio-state-university-discovers-that-sars-cov-2-bq-1-and-bq-1-1-variants-exhibit-enhanced-fusogenicity-besides-increased-immune-evasiveness[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-ohio-state-university-discovers-that-sars-cov-2-bq-1-and-bq-1-1-variants-exhibit-enhanced-fusogenicity-besides-increased-immune-evasiveness 

CoViD is going exponential....so we may see a repeat of steps...push for more vaccinations...only offering limited protection at best...hospitals/ICU running out of staff/beds/capacity...Non Pharma rules and "organized=paid for protests".....

We are sinking deeper into this crisis...STOP THE SPREAD means limiting (air)travel...(for a start) ...stop spreading variants/diseases all over the planet but "economy=profits" still more important then public health...

of course further escalating/provocating (nuclear-false flag) wars may be a next step in "controlling the crowd...pandemic..."

We need better politicians...

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 22 2022 at 1:58am

part 2-twitter, flutracker etc;








This brings our informal tally of monkeypox deaths to at least 8 nationwide 1 in California 1 in Ohio 1 in Maryland 2 in New York 1 in Nevada 2 in Illinois We've also updated our story to reflect 's announcement https://cbsnews.com/news/monkeypox-deaths-illinois-maryland-new-york-nevada/

DJ In [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Chronologically[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Chronologically "only" three US MPX deaths...








Face The Nation

@FaceTheNation
·
New York City has confirmed its first two deaths of residents who had tested positive for monkeypox, health officials said Thursday. https://cbsn.ws/3DetcwV

-


In Central Africa, a deadly monkeypox variant is surging: Experts are calling for stronger measures to stop a variant found in the Democratic Republic of the Congo that's 10 times deadlier than the global strain.

link; [url]https://www.nationalgeographic.co.uk/science-and-technology/2022/10/in-central-africa-a-deadly-monkeypox-variant-is-surging[/url] or https://www.nationalgeographic.co.uk/science-and-technology/2022/10/in-central-africa-a-deadly-monkeypox-variant-is-surging ...some virusses can survive on surfaces...(the Haïti cholera outbreak several years ago was caused via UN-mission mail from Nepal...)...

DJ- We may be only in a pause for MPX....

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa/emerging-diseases-other-health-threats-ah/955863-gambia-government-investigates-as-children-die-of-mysterious-disease-who-issues-a-medical-product-alert-for-four-contaminated-medicines[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa/emerging-diseases-other-health-threats-ah/955863-gambia-government-investigates-as-children-die-of-mysterious-disease-who-issues-a-medical-product-alert-for-four-contaminated-medicines 

Fake medication, fake testing (about everything may have cheaper look-a-like fakes...)...only worsening the healthcrisis ( The "free market idea" showing its stupidity...without testing, monitoring...UK planning to "liberate" anti-biotics...insane...)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/animal-diseases-of-concern-excludes-h5n1/961093-researchers-reveal-how-cat-virus-might-infect-humans[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/animal-diseases-of-concern-excludes-h5n1/961093-researchers-reveal-how-cat-virus-might-infect-humans ;

Researchers reveal how cat virus might infect humans
By The Science Advisory Board staff writers

October 20, 2022 -- Virologists from the University of Pittsburgh Center for Vaccine Research have reverse-engineered feline morbillivirus (FeMV), an understudied virus linked to chronic kidney disease in cats. Their research, published October 17 in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, described this virus's mechanism of infection and its potential to infect people.

First discovered in Hong Kong's stray cats a decade ago, FeMV has since been found in domestic cats across Asia and Europe. Previous studies linked FeMV infections to chronic kidney disease -- a leading cause of death in older cats. This study provides new details on how the virus gets to the kidneys.

Researchers found FeMV utilizes the same cell entry and infection mechanism as other morbilliviruses, including measles, by binding to a surface protein receptor called CD150. However, unlike measles, FeMV may spread from host to host via urine. Similarly, the zoonotic Nipah virus in bats causes deadly human outbreaks across Southeast Asia...

DJ...pets once was save....but with an increase of diseases we need better animal healthcare...

De juiste figuren van het  , die gisteren ontbraken. πŸ™ Dat ziet er in de prognose inderdaad uit als een dominante BQ.1* voor het eind van deze maand! Maar de SGTF (BA.4/5) daalt, wat duidt op een stijging van BA.2 afstammelingen. XBB waarschijnlijk, en/of BA.2.3.20 + XBD!

In NL BQ.1 on its way for dominance end of this month ? Lower SGTF (BA4/5) could mean increase of BA.2 descendants, proberbly XBB and/or BA.2.3.20 +XBD...

(DJ-I have given up on following all the subvariants....[url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports has now 784 variants of CoViD-Omicron...(recombinations may not even be included...sequencing is very limited...). 








...multiple waves. It's just that the virus has no time to wait for antibodies to wane while it has an infinite antigenic space to explore, so it tends to come up with antigenic innovations before that effect can be observed But it was in fact observed in real life -- at...

DJ...my translation; mutations resulting in more evasion now go that much faster then creating immunity...








No, Delta has not been eradicated or eliminated, yet. Definitely not by herd immunity, nor necessarily by Omicron. It's always in cryptic circulation, and obtaining new RBD changes sometimes, such as EPI_ISL_15120575 (featuring spike G446V, N460K, S477N, V483A, S494L and G496R)

The idea that "older variants of CoViD" are gone is wrong...lower numbers, immuno-compromised..."chronic CoViD" ...The total failure -lack of understanding- of this virus only resulting in a "disease-jungle"...

End of part 2

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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DJ, I was thinking of "Anarchy for the UK" as an opening...of course that is were it ends if politics keep failing...








The good news is that respiratory viruses can't evolve to evade the laws of physics, and so masks and clean air along with vaccination and thoughtful social and public health policies can absolutely defeat them. The bad news is we're apparently the dumbest species on earth.

and








Remarkable stat from Mark Carney here: “Put it this way, in 2016 the British economy was 90 per cent the size of Germany’s. Now it is less than 70 per cent. And that calculation was made before today.”

DJ...of course "economy" matters...We have-still-tools to "beat the pandemic"...on an individual level lots of people do the best they can....It should not be all about vaccines...In history vaccines never were "perfect"...CoViD-vaccine protection may be "maximum of what one should expect" (flu vaccines-in general offer LESS protection-but still good enough to limit the flu...)

It is because vaccines NOT being 100% perfect-nothing in real life is 100% perfect-we need extra NPI measures to contain, stop this pandemic...and that is where governments have to do much better..."Crowd control" by going into a public fight over vaccines-politics was a major error...

In any crisis information, communication need trust to be effective...trust is gone...

If this pandemic was like a tsunami coming in...we would calculate wave height, wich area's will be hit hardest, consequences for infrastructure, power...

It is possible to make-still-reasonable estimates on who now runs most risks in this pandemic and what would be most effective...I-DJ-believe in "Zero-CoViD" =stop the spread...The weak spot in this pandemic is disease getting into hosts-transport...So "freeze"....Some countries are willing to pay a very high economy-price to save human lives...

Vaccines DO help ! 








The vaccine limits the ability of the virus to thrive & replicate. If we have less virus, we transmit less infection. The vaccines are not sterilising ie infection blocking and that is why they don’t completely prevent transmission but they reduce severe infxn

DJ...but it is WRONG to still push the idea "vaccines can end this pandemic"...they NEVER !!!! could !!! (Maybe better (nasal) vaccines can...but they are not in mass use...yet). 








What did we really get?

  • Herd Immunity
    2.8%

  • Hurt Immunity
    97.2%
1,316 votes·Final results

DJ...[url]https://edition.cnn.com/2022/10/22/health/cdc-director-positive-covid/index.html[/url] or https://edition.cnn.com/2022/10/22/health/cdc-director-positive-covid/index.html Rochelle Walensky did not promote masks..."washing hands"would do the job...(now she did test positive for CoViD...)

What realy makes me very angry (to put it polite) is we are almost three years in this pandemic...Again-on an individual level lots of people do the best they can (and it should NOT be only on getting vaccinated...that is a black-and-white discussion...nuance is needed !)...but those responsible for public health produce bla-bla....

Why not start an International Panel on Pandemic Change ? We have one "political club" on "Climate Change"(IPCC) ...we have all kinds of "bla bla" on end on poverty...reality is rich getting more rich...

"Anarchy" can be the only outcome when healthcare breaks down....








The Care Quality Commission says the NHS is “gridlocked” and “in crisis” and that health service bosses fear long waits for care are so common that the risk of harm to those affected is “a worrying new status quo”. /1

DJ, Already people are dying waiting for an ambulance... UK.gov pushing the idea for further privatizing the NHS....insanity rules...dogmatism...creating even more trillions will solve more problems...let others, future generations, pay....

We deserve better !

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 22 2022 at 10:37pm

DJ...part 2

In Europe [url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/10/22/coronavirus-subvariant-lead-increase-infections-ecdc[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/10/22/coronavirus-subvariant-lead-increase-infections-ecdc ;

A subvariant of the coronavirus, BQ.1, will become dominant in Europe sometime between mid-November and early December, the European health service ECDC expects. The dominance of BQ.1 and its sub-variant, BQ.1.1, is likely to lead to an increase in the number of coronavirus cases in the coming weeks to months.

BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 are subvariants of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus, which is already dominant. The subvariants are already circulating in the Netherlands, according to the so-called germ surveillance of the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM). They have also appeared in France, Belgium, Ireland and Italy.


According to the ECDC, the subvariants in the Netherlands were found in 6 percent of the samples about two weeks ago. In France, it was already 19 percent.

Studies from Asia show that BQ.1 can evade the immune system, according to the ECDC. The data currently available on the subvariant do not show that BQ.1 is more pathogenic than the Omicron variants that are now widely circulated (BA.4 and BA.5).

DJ...well [url]https://cov-spectrum.org/collections/24[/url] or https://cov-spectrum.org/collections/24 BQ.1 BQ.1.1 did start their own family....BQ.1.1.1 to BQ.1.1.10, BQ.1.2 to BA.20...BQ.2 etc.....As should be expected in exponential growth we now face a "soup" of all kinds of variants...(all still named "Omicron" ...they differ more from eachother then Beta differed from Delta...but who cares...It is simply impractical to name them all Variants of Concern/Variant of High Consequence [url]https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-classifications.html[/url] or https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-classifications.html 

DJ [url]https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-classifications.html#anchor_1632158924994[/url] or https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-classifications.html#anchor_1632158924994 ;

Variant of High Consequence (VOHC)

A VOHC has clear evidence that prevention measures or medical countermeasures (MCMs) have significantly reduced effectiveness relative to previously circulating variants.

Possible attributes of a variant of high consequence:

In addition to the possible attributes of a variant of concern

  • Impact on MCMs
    • Demonstrated failure of diagnostic test targets
    • Evidence to suggest a significant reduction in vaccine effectiveness, a disproportionately high number of infections in vaccinated persons, or very low vaccine-induced protection against severe disease
    • Significantly reduced susceptibility to multiple EUA or approved therapeutics
    • More severe clinical disease and increased hospitalizations

A variant of high consequence would require notification to WHO under the International Health Regulations, reporting to CDC, an announcement of strategies to prevent or contain transmission, and recommendations to update treatments and vaccines. 

Currently, no SARS-CoV-2 variants are designated as VOHC.

are on their way...but I do not expect the (E)CDC to be willing to name them as such...Immunity evasion reduce vaccine protection, anti-viral treatment....

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/great-news-sars-cov-2-xbb-recombinant-variant-spawning-newer-sub-lineages-such-as-xbb-1,-xbb-1-1,-xbb1-2,-xbb-2,-xbb-3,-xbb-3-1,-xbb-4-and-xbb-5[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/great-news-sars-cov-2-xbb-recombinant-variant-spawning-newer-sub-lineages-such-as-xbb-1,-xbb-1-1,-xbb1-2,-xbb-2,-xbb-3,-xbb-3-1,-xbb-4-and-xbb-5 

DJ Two basic ideas on this pandemic;

1 Disease-transport-host the basic triangle (vaccines can "close" the host for infection...in practice most vaccines do not offer a "100% closed host"...)

2 A virus needs a host for reproduction, mutation-selection -if not stopped by immunity-will bring exponential growth of disease. 

DJ A virus is "on the edge of life" since it can NOT reproduce itself...This could be a "weak spot" but if a virus is NOT stopped in time it "will explode"

So let me end part 2 with "linear growth"= 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 etc..."friendly" 

Exponential growth...1,2,4,8,16,32,64,128,256,512, 1024, 2048...Before 100% you have 50%, before that 25%, before that 12,5% "still manageable" before that 6,25% "you have to stop it now !!!) ...Exponential may mean lots of subvariants of one disease/virus...but with CoViD decrease of immunity...increase of other diseases...

End of part 2


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Part 3...co-infections....

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/announcement-please-get-your-flu-shots-asap-co-infections-involving-covid-19-with-flu-or-cold-viruses-like-rsv-or-adenovirus-doubles-the-risk-of-dying[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/announcement-please-get-your-flu-shots-asap-co-infections-involving-covid-19-with-flu-or-cold-viruses-like-rsv-or-adenovirus-doubles-the-risk-of-dying (story full of links) 

[url]https://flunewseurope.org/[/url] or https://flunewseurope.org/

Weeks 41/2022 (10-16 October 2022)

 

  • Germany and United Kingdom (Scotland) reported regional influenza spread and Kazakhstan reported widespread influenza activity.

 

  • The percentage of all sentinel primary care specimens from patients presenting with ILI or ARI symptoms that tested positive for an influenza virus increased to 4% from 3% in the previous week, which is below the epidemic threshold set at 10%.

 

  •  Germany, with a rate of 13%, was the only country to report seasonal influenza activity above 10% positivity in sentinel primary care.

 

  •  Both influenza type A and type B viruses were detected among all monitoring systems.

 

  •  Both type A and type B viruses were detected among hospitalized patients with laboratory confirmed influenza.

 

 
Qualitative indicators

For week 41/2022, of 41 countries and areas reporting on intensity of influenza activity, 30 reported baseline-intensity (across the Region), 9 reported low-intensity (across the Region), 1 reported medium-intensity (Kazakhstan) and 1 reported high-intensity (Malta).

 

Of 41 countries and areas reporting on geographic spread of influenza viruses, 20 reported no activity (across the Region), 17 reported sporadic spread (across the Region), 1 reported local spread (Malta), 2 reported regional spread (Germany and United Kingdom (Scotland)) and 1 reported widespread activity (Kazakhstan).

 


DJ..so far most reported (human) flu-type is H3N2...(there is also H3N2v spreading in pigs.....) [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H3N2[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H3N2 ;The Hong Kong Flu was a flu pandemic caused by a strain of H3N2 descended from H2N2 by antigenic shift, in which genes from multiple subtypes reassorted to form a new virus. This pandemic of 1968 and 1969 killed an estimated one million people worldwide.[6][7][8] The pandemic infected an estimated 500,000 Hong Kong residents, 15% of the population, with a low death rate.[9] In the United States, about 100,000 people died.[10]

and [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swine_influenza[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swine_influenza

Pigs are unusual as they can be infected with influenza strains that usually infect three different species: pigs, birds, and humans.[25] Pigs are a host where influenza viruses might exchange genes, producing new and dangerous strains.[25] Avian influenza virus H3N2 is endemic in pigs in China and has been detected in pigs in Vietnam, increasing fears of the emergence of new variant strains.[26] H3N2 evolved from H2N2 by antigenic shift.[27] In August 2004, researchers in China found H5N1 in pigs.[28]

These H5N1 infections may be quite common; in a survey of 10 apparently healthy pigs housed near poultry farms in West Java, where avian flu had broken out, five of the pig samples contained the H5N1 virus. The Indonesian government has since found similar results in the same region. Additional tests of 150 pigs outside the area were negative.[29][30]

DJ...would it be wise to stop pig farming all together (like mink fur-farms stopped in some countries because minks are high-risk for CoViD) ? YES ! Will we reduce pig farming ? NO !

Of course [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_effects_of_H5N1#Compared_to_annual_flu_season[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_effects_of_H5N1#Compared_to_annual_flu_season

The annual flu season deaths and costs caused by viruses other than H5N1 provide a point of contrast - something to compare against. According to the United States Government, the annual flu in the United States:

results in approximately 36,000 deaths and more than 200,000 hospitalizations each year. In addition to this human toll, influenza is annually responsible for a total cost of over $10 billion in the United States. A pandemic, or worldwide outbreak of a new influenza virus, could dwarf this impact by overwhelming our health and medical capabilities, potentially resulting in hundreds of thousands of deaths, millions of hospitalizations, and hundreds of billions of dollars in direct and indirect costs.[26]

The New England Journal of Medicine reported that: "A study by the Congressional Budget Office estimates that the consequences of a severe pandemic could, in the United States, include 200 million people infected, 90 million clinically ill, and 2 million dead. The study estimates that 30 percent of all workers would become ill and 2.5 percent would die, with 30 percent of workers missing a mean of three weeks of work — resulting in a decrease in the gross domestic product of 5 percent. Furthermore, 18 million to 45 million people would require outpatient care, and economic costs would total approximately $675 billion."[27] One study concludes that a pandemic that reduced the available dock workers by 28% would cut the throughput capacity for containers arriving at American ports on the West coast by 45%.[28]

would come ON TOP of the CoViD (and other) health crisis...with healthcare allready "exhausted"...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/asia/h5n1-h5n8-h1n08-tracking/vietnam-aa/961089-vietnam-government-report-vietnam-records-first-human-case-of-bird-flu-in-8-years-5-yr-old-female-in-phu-tho-province-a-h5-type-october-21-2022[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/asia/h5n1-h5n8-h1n08-tracking/vietnam-aa/961089-vietnam-government-report-vietnam-records-first-human-case-of-bird-flu-in-8-years-5-yr-old-female-in-phu-tho-province-a-h5-type-october-21-2022 ; Source: ://nld.com.vn/suc-khoe/be-gai-mac-cum-a-h5n1-da-hoi-phuc-rut-noi-khi-quan-20221022091936848.htm

The girl with influenza A/H5N1 has recovered, extubated
October 22, 2022 - 09:41 |

(LDO) - The health of a 5-year-old child infected with influenza A/H5N1 is recovering. The baby is now extubated, fully awake and continues to monitor kidney function

Information from the National Children's Hospital on October 22 said that up to now, the health of a 5-year-old child in Phu Tho has been infected with:influenza A/H5N1is being treated at the Intensive Care Unit, National Children's Hospital, has recovered. The baby has now been extubated, fully awake and continues to monitor kidney function.

DJ "Twindemic" "Flu-Rona" are word games....behind it is a "nightmare scenario" we have to avoid at ALL costs ! 

End of part 3...part 4 on "it is over/mild MPX"....

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Part 4...

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/10/22/rivm-wraps-monkeypox-vaccination-campaign-infections-dwindle[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/10/22/rivm-wraps-monkeypox-vaccination-campaign-infections-dwindle

The current monkeypox outbreak is almost over, says RIVM health institute. The vaccination campaign against the monkeypox will therefore end soon, according to the organization. Risk groups will be invited for a shot until the end of this month.

"The number of new infections has been very low for a few weeks, which means that the campaign can stop. Nevertheless, the disease can still rise and there are still infections," warned the RIVM, calling for vigilance.


After a peak in the summer, the number of infections has now decreased to a few per week. "For example, the virus was detected in only nine people in the past two weeks. Due to the small number of new infections, the need to vaccinate is no longer present," says the health institute.

"Changed behaviour" and natural immunity have also led to a reduction in the number of new infections, the RIVM thinks. The institute cannot yet say how great the effect of the vaccinations has been.


In November, it will be considered whether vaccinations or other measures may be necessary in the future

DJ...very likely low number of new cases of MPX in some countries...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america/other-diseases-ah/south-america-monkeypox/951862-chile-monkeypox-outbreak-2022?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america/other-diseases-ah/south-america-monkeypox/951862-chile-monkeypox-outbreak-2022?view=stream ;

Source: https://www.cnnchile.com/pais/minsal...pais_20221022/

22.10.2022 / 00:06
Minsal reported 1,127 confirmed cases of monkeypox in the country
In 15 of the 16 regions of the country, there were cases, where the Metropolitan Region (RM) concentrated the highest percentage with 84.7%, followed by the Region of Valparaíso, Antofagasta, Coquimbo, Biobío and La Araucanía. The age range was 6 months to 89 years, with a median of 34 years.

The Ministry of Health reported a total of 1,127 confirmed cases of monkeypox in the country. According to the weekly report, up to October 20, 2022, 1,734 cases of the disease were registered (1,127 confirmed and 16 probable). In the last week, 12 new cases were confirmed, compared to the last report.

Of the total cases, 571 were confirmed epidemiologically discharged, while 572 correspond to cases in a period of isolation.

In 15 of the 16 regions of the country, there were cases, where the Metropolitan Region (RM) concentrated the highest percentage with 84.7%, followed by the Region of Valparaíso, Antofagasta, Coquimbo, Biobío and Araucanía.

and [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/north-america-ab/north-america-monkeypox/953565-dominican-republic-monkeypox-outbreak-2022?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/north-america-ab/north-america-monkeypox/953565-dominican-republic-monkeypox-outbreak-2022?view=stream ;

Source: https://elnacional.com.do/suben-a-32...uela-del-mono/

Monkeypox cases rise to 32
ByEFE October 22, 2022

Santo Domingo.- The Ministry of Public Health (MSP) reported this Saturday of a new case of monkeypox or monkeypox in an 18-year-old resident of the city of Puerto Plata, bringing the total to 32 confirmed cases of the disease registered in the country.

and [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Chronologically[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Chronologically ...latest info Dominican Republic has 32 MPX cases, Chile 1.127 cases on the wiki-list Dominican Republic has 29 cases, Chile 1,078 confirmed with 15 suspected cases...








This brings our informal tally of monkeypox deaths to at least 8 nationwide 1 in California 1 in Ohio 1 in Maryland 2 in New York 1 in Nevada 2 in Illinois We've also updated our story to reflect 's announcement https://cbsnews.com/news/monkeypox-deaths-illinois-maryland-new-york-nevada/

US 8 MPX deaths...wiki-list only mentions 3 US MPX-deaths...So is MPX over ? Or are we missing a lot of cases/not reporting them "bad for economy/tourism"....Unwelcome news...

[url]https://www.nationalgeographic.co.uk/science-and-technology/2022/10/in-central-africa-a-deadly-monkeypox-variant-is-surging[/url] or https://www.nationalgeographic.co.uk/science-and-technology/2022/10/in-central-africa-a-deadly-monkeypox-variant-is-surging

Experts are calling for stronger measures to stop a variant found in the Democratic Republic of the Congo that's 10 times deadlier than the global strain.

Monkeypox, a smallpox-related viral disease with two known variants, was named in 1958 after it was identified in a colony of research monkeys in a laboratory in Copenhagen, Germany. (Scientists think rodents, not primates, are the main reservoir for the disease.)

The mildest form of the disease is Clade II, also known as the West African variant, which went global this May. To date, it has infected more than 70,000 people, killing at least 26, in more than a hundred countries and territories, with the overwhelming majority being gay men. Cases are declining, thanks to vaccinations and changes in sexual behaviour.

Meanwhile, another variant— ten times deadlier—is smouldering in Central Africa.

The Africa Centres for Disease Control reports that the majority of the 3,500 suspected Clade I (or Congo Basin strain) cases this year, including more than 120 deaths, are in the DRC. Nigeria, where the Clade II outbreak began, has had about 700 suspected cases, with fewer than 10 fatalities.

Health experts National Geographic consulted about the steady rise of the Clade I variant in Central Africa say countries should be concerned about its threat to global communities and take stronger action to prevent it and other animal-borne diseases from blazing around the world.

“If the West African strain can spread to Europe, America, and other parts of the world, the more virulent and pathogenic Congo Basin strain can also go there,” says infectious disease expert Dimie Ogoina at Niger Delta University, in the southern part of Nigeria. “International health stakeholders must be deliberate to help address monkeypox and other diseases in Africa. Because if we don’t do this, it will come back to haunt us.”

DJ See also [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monkeypox#Epidemiology[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monkeypox#Epidemiology ...disease fly for free....

Ebola;

Dr. Jane Ruth Aceng Ocero
@JaneRuth_Aceng
·
9h
Yesterday 21st Oct. 2022, three individuals from among the 60 in our Mulago isolation facility tested positive for #Ebola. These were contacts to the case from Kassanda who passed on in Mulago Hospital.
They have since been under institutional quarantine in Mulago isolation unit.

Dr. Jane Ruth Aceng Ocero
@JaneRuth_Aceng
·
9h
They will be transferred to the Entebbe Isolation for treatment Unit since the Mulago Unit still has 58 contacts under quarantine.
Let's remain vigilant and report anybody with symptoms similar to #Ebola.
Together we can end this epidemic. #EbolaOutbreakUG

-

By Reuters

Oct. 22, 2022, at 3:32 a.m.

(Reuters) -Three people in an isolation unit of Uganda's main hospital have tested positive for Ebola, the country's health minister said on Saturday.
...
Mulago is in Uganda's capital Kampala. Friday's confirmed cases would be the first known transmission of the virus in the city...

A government statement on Friday evening said the outbreak had infected 65 people and killed 27. It was not clear if the numbers included the three new Kampala cases.

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/ar...tive-for-ebola

DJ...Ebola is NOT under control in Uganda...Uganda in the west is bordering DRC (Democratic Republic of Congo) with lots of diseases...as good as no healthcare in war-zones...lots of refugees...DRC capital Kinshasa [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinshasa#Demographics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinshasa#Demographics

An official census conducted in 1984 counted 2.6 million residents.[28] Since then, all estimates are extrapolations. The estimates for 2005 fell in a range between 5.3 million and 7.3 million.[20] In 2017, the most recent population estimate for the city, it has a population of 11,855,000.[29]

According to UN-Habitat, 390,000 people immigrate to Kinshasa annually, fleeing warfare and seeking economic opportunity. Many float on barges down the Congo River.[30]

According to a projection (2016) the population of metropolitan Kinshasa will increase significantly, to 35 million by 2050, 58 million by 2075 and 83 million by 2100,[31] making it one of the largest metropolitan areas in the world.

DJ...You need to invest in disease control in mega-cities if you want to avoid pandemics....(but who cares....token-investments...all kind of problems; "religion" in the way of birth control/family planning, corruption in the way of money for public health...)

So-what do I think is the outlook for coming months-2023 (excluding more wars, provocations, escalations...we need new politics !) ?

DJ-If we keep failing to stop free transport of diseases/variants CoViD-19 will no longer be the only major pandemic....I think "flu-types" may be a high risk...co-infection of CoViD and "mild"H3N2 in itself already will be bad.....H5N1 is widespread around the globe...so far limited spread/disease in humans....But H5N1 spreading/mixing in pigs should be a major worry....

Of course MPX is widespread and not over....[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monkeypox_virus[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monkeypox_virus did surprise us in 2022...can/will bring more surprises...

Cholera is on a "world tour" from Haïti to Lebanon (so far in Syrian refugees). But also has potential for much more spread....

Ebola may spread a lot if it ends up in countries like Haïti, Yemen, Afghanistan....but also it can become a problem in "rich countries" if incubation time [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ebola#Onset[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ebola#OnsetThe length of time between exposure to the virus and the development of symptoms (incubation period) is between 2 and 21 days,[1][23] and usually between 4 and 10 days.[24] However, recent estimates based on mathematical models predict that around 5% of cases may take longer than 21 days to develop.[25]

turns out to be longer then 3 weeks more often...

Symptoms usually begin with a sudden influenza-like stage characterised by fatiguefeverweaknessdecreased appetitemuscular painjoint pain, headache, and sore throat.[1][24][26][27] The fever is usually higher than 38.3 °C (101 °F).[28] This is often followed by nausea, vomiting, diarrhoea, abdominal pain, and sometimes hiccups.[27][29] The combination of severe vomiting and diarrhoea often leads to severe dehydration.[30] Next, shortness of breath and chest pain may occur, along with swellingheadaches, and confusion.[27] In about half of the cases, the skin may develop a maculopapular rash, a flat red area covered with small bumps, five to seven days after symptoms begin.[24][28]

may be easy to confuse with CoViD...(new "tropism" Viruses and other pathogens affect what is called "host tropism", "tissue tropism", or "cell tropism"; in which case tropism refers to the way in which different viruses/pathogens have evolved to preferentially target specific host species, specific tissue, or specific cell types within those species

DJ...resulting in specific symptoms...New CoViD variants seem less effective in lung/respitory, more in gastro-intestinal system...). 

So...WE NEED TO STOP THE SPREAD !!!!

End of part 4...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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DJ, part 1...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-oxford-study-reveals-new-omicron-variants-and-sub-lineages-causes-impaired-t-cell-immunogenicity-with-potential-for-t-cell-immunity-escape[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-oxford-study-reveals-new-omicron-variants-and-sub-lineages-causes-impaired-t-cell-immunogenicity-with-potential-for-t-cell-immunity-escape Immunology is a science on its own...complex...Again-I am not an expert so when I read the article (with links) I do not understand most of it...basic point however is immune protection against CoViD (re)infection may be at risk...It can be related to both mutations in sub-variants of CoViD19 (most of them will be -still-named "Omicron"...must be over 800 subtypes of "Omicron" by now...) and (immunology) history of the host...

The article does not provide much info on general decrease of immune protection - wich-in theory- could push some types of CoViD towards [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV like effects.... a condition in which progressive failure of the immune system allows life-threatening opportunistic infections and cancers to thrive.[3] Without treatment, average survival time after infection with HIV is estimated to be 9 to 11 years, depending on the HIV subtype.[4]

DJ...The article describes a way to predict how mutations may affect T-cell effectivity...in theory. Practice may provide how CoViD affects general (group) immunity processes...MPX getting "wild" may be related to CoViD post-infection decrease of immunity....(An increase of polio-in-wastewater however may be related to more testing, sampling...so far US,UK, NL (etc) polio-virus was linked to using live polio-virus-vaccines in Afghanistan, Pakistan ...using that kind of vaccines there may have to do with practical reasons...not much modern health infrastructure in most of those countries...). 

Other diseases increased activity may have more links with climate change, population growth...Ebola in Africa may have links with people getting in contact with infected animals. [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ebola#Initial_case[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ebola#Initial_case

Although it is not entirely clear how Ebola initially spreads from animals to humans, the spread is believed to involve direct contact with an infected wild animal or fruit bat.[61] Besides bats, other wild animals sometimes infected with EBOV include several species of monkeys such as baboonsgreat apes (chimpanzees and gorillas), and duikers (a species of antelope).[83]

Animals may become infected when they eat fruit partially eaten by bats carrying the virus.[84] Fruit production, animal behavior and other factors may trigger outbreaks among animal populations.[84]

Evidence indicates that both domestic dogs and pigs can also be infected with EBOV.[85] Dogs do not appear to develop symptoms when they carry the virus, and pigs appear to be able to transmit the virus to at least some primates.[85] Although some dogs in an area in which a human outbreak occurred had antibodies to EBOV, it is unclear whether they played a role in spreading the disease to people.[85]

Reservoir

The natural reservoir for Ebola has yet to be confirmed; however, bats are considered to be the most likely candidate.[62

DJ...people moving deeper into forests to make a living may get in contact more often with infected animals...so population pressure is a factor. 

CoViD can be spread via frozen food-virus may survive up to 4 weeks...[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/south-korean-study-validates-that-sars-cov-2-can-remain-viable-on-foods-for-a-long-time-depending-on-storage-temperatures[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/south-korean-study-validates-that-sars-cov-2-can-remain-viable-on-foods-for-a-long-time-depending-on-storage-temperatures Virus can survive 20C 70F around 3-to-7 hours....4C(around 36F) however the virus may survive 24-48 hours...At -40C/F -depending on the surface-CoViD-virus may survive 100 hours+...So with winter on its way contaminated surfaces may spread the virus longer...

Good hygiene can limit disease spread...but we knew that...however for CoViD it may also help explain season-effects...more (severe) cases (higher viral load) in winter....

Three shots + BA.1 breakthrough infection = ~zero neutralizing antibody immunity 7.5 months later against the soon-to-be-dominant variants. Yet only 6% of Americans have gotten the bivalent booster & uptake in the elderly is pitiful. The "mild" narrative is doing real harm. 1/3

and

Yunlong Richard Cao

@yunlong_cao
·
A short update on how waning immunity and immune evasion by convergent mutants BQ.1.1 and XBB stack together. Data suggest that most serum obtained ~7.5 months after BA.1 breakthrough infection would hardly neutralize BQ.1.1 and XBB. (NT50 of 20 is the lower limit of our assay)

DJ...I think governments need to get much more active in limiting disease spread. Promoting vaccinations (with also in NL discussion between GP-doctors on combining flu- and CoViD-vaccines...or at least two weeks apart...) not only against CoViD but a.o. also against the flu...But also STOP THE SPREAD !!!! When will we see the first Ebola case, more risky Congo-variant of MPX in Europe, the America's, Asia ? 

To regain a certain level of public health masks, study/work from home, NO mass events all may help....

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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part 2, 

DJ-My goal is to make up my mind on CoViD, the healthcrisis...what can/should I do...Share my ideas on that with others...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza ;In a typical year, 5–15% of the population contracts influenza. There are 3–5 million severe cases annually, with up to 650,000 respiratory-related deaths globally each year. Deaths most commonly occur in high-risk groups, including young children, the elderly, and people with chronic health conditions. In temperate regions of the world, the number of influenza cases peaks during winter, whereas in the tropics influenza can occur year-round.

DJ Other estimates put flu-deaths per year between 400,000 and 600,000....So is CoViD worse then the flu ? When you look at the lowest estimates for CoViD deaths at over 6,5 million deaths...yes...also 5-15% of global population catching the flu each year means between 400 million and 1,2 billion cases per year...Some estimates put global CoViD cases at around 3 billion...around 1 billion per year...so "Case Fatality Ratio" (CFR) for CoViD is much worse...3 to 4 times worse then for the flu-at least ? 

(If you would go for 2,4 billion flu cases resulting in 1,8 million deaths CFR [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fatality_rate[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fatality_rate for flu would be 0,75...3 billion CoViD cases bringing 6,5 million deaths =CFR =2,2 ? Mmmmm-coffee....1% of 1 billion is 10 million...so for flu 1% would be 24 million, CoViD 30 million...both cases CFR is <1%....more coffee..... flu CFR 0,075...CoViD 0,22 ? Just to get some basic idea...). 

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table regional-global-spread;

Asia cases -2%, deaths +3%...Israel cases +27% (high level of vaccinations...deaths "+1% 39 last 7 days, previous week only 2= an increase of 1%....???). Malaysia, Saudi Arabia cases +22%...

South America cases +34%, deaths +14%....Paraguay +67% increase of cases, Suriname +59%, Chile +41%, Brazil +38%

Europe cases -23%, deaths -10% autumn/fall wave is over ??? Norway cases +8%...NL deaths +50% (last week 30, these last 7 days 45...) 

In general first cases increase-deaths often follow 3-4 weeks later on...people first need to catch a disease before they die from it....


Spectacular! Finally, a lab proving what some of us on Twitter have been speculating about for months. After the antigenic jump, the tendency of #SARS2 is toward DEATTENUATION by further innate immune evasion (and/or improving the alternative route, i.e. better fusogenicity).

-

Krogan Lab

@KroganLab
·
We propose that having achieved the antigenic shift required to escape widespread adaptive immune responses to Spike (BA.1), Omicron, like previous VOCs, subsequently experienced the next strongest selective pressure, resulting in the enhancement of innate immune evasion (BA.5).

DJ [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attenuation[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attenuation ...to put it simple gradual loss of flux intensity through a medium.  =weakening ? Se DE-attenuation here may mean CoViD is NOT getting "milder" but stronger..."Fusogenicity" is being able to "go/spread" from cell to cell....Innate immunity is the immunity you were born with...antigenetic shift=[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antigenic_shift[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antigenic_shift DJ-to put it very simple is "mutated" 

So the above two twitters simply translate into "CoViD is getting stronger, better able to get around immunity and spreading-in a host-from cell to cell....Bad news...certainly when it is presented in these words...








New update from : confirms extreme immune evasion by Omicron BQ.1.1 and XBB: near zero neutralizing antibody immunity 7.5 months after 3xSinovac vaccination+BA.1 breakthrough infection. Higher neutralizing titers expected after mRNA vaccination & bivalent booster.

So mRNA-booster vaccines may still offer (some) protection.....DJ-However !!!! More then "just" vaccines are needed to stop the downward spiral !!!

Let me mention ebola....


Yesterday 23rd Oct 2022, nine (9) individuals were confirmed positive for #Ebola in Greater Kampala region bringing the total number of cases to 14 in the last 48 hours. The 9 cases are contacts of the fatal case who came from Kassanda  district and passed on in Mulago Hospital.

-








Replying to 
7 family members are from Masanafu and 1 health worker who managed him in a private clinic together with his wife from Seguku. Fellow Ugandans, let's be vigilant. Report yourself if you have had contact or know of a person who has had contact. Lets cooperate to end Ebola.

DJ...we did see the "milder" MPX variant spread in Europe, the world earlier this year...do we want the "10x worse DRC/Congo variant" going global ? Do we want ebola to spread ? We need to do more to STOP THE SPREAD !!!!

Eric Feigl-Ding

@DrEricDing
·
Looks like stopping the virus totally wrecked their economy…  China’s Q3 GDP grew by 3.9% from a year ago, beating analysts’ expectations (of 3.4%). Maybe, just maybe, saving lives & stopping transmission = saving the 

economy....In the US some estimates go to 30 million "long CoViD cases" (to make that political; both trump and biden failed to stop the pandemic...). 








France will be another good one to get an idea of the impact of BQ.1.1. There BQ.1.1 just became dominant (>50% of all new infections), though BQ.1.1 will only have a >90% share by the 3d week of November.

A look at France; cases -13% deaths +14%....

Vinod Scaria

@vinodscaria
·
The new emerging sublineages of #SARSCoV2 #Omicron and recombinants. What are they and why are they relevant? @bani_jolly and I write in @the_hindu today https://epaper.thehindu.com/Home/MShareArticle?OrgId=GLSAE7AP7.1&imageview=0&utm_source=telegram&utm_medium=article

Does the link work ? [url]https://epaper.thehindu.com/Home/ShareArticle?OrgId=GLSAE7AP7.1&imageview=0&utm_source=telegram&utm_medium=article[/url] or https://epaper.thehindu.com/Home/ShareArticle?OrgId=GLSAE7AP7.1&imageview=0&utm_source=telegram&utm_medium=article ....

End of part 2



We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 24 2022 at 9:52pm

DJ, 

In the UK Sunak now voted to be UK next PM -by conservative party members [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qWMvFPoBuvg[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qWMvFPoBuvg Democracy Now talking to a guardian-journalist; "We are a democracy in name only"....Billionaire Sunak would not get that many votes in general elections..."New Labour" hardly opposition-cutting ties with trade unions...

In France [url]https://www.france24.com/en/economy/20221024-french-govt-survives-no-confidence-votes-after-forcing-through-budget[/url] or https://www.france24.com/en/economy/20221024-french-govt-survives-no-confidence-votes-after-forcing-through-budget ; use of a special constitutional power to force the budget bill through the National Assembly without a vote.

DJ, Germany pushing to outlaw a main opposition party AfD claiming it is extreme right wing...In the US legal staps against trump....Here in NL rutte is ruling for over a decade-his cabinet would not get enough votes now if there were new elections...

For the US-mid-term november 8 elections there is growing fear the "so called" "democratic party" may seek escalation of crises to get votes....since solving those crises failed. 

This "politics" as a basis for how western governments are positioned to deal with more healthcrises on their way....trust in politics is gone....often opposition may be even worse then the present clique-out of contact with the general public...

So [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table global cases -19% is welcome...even just as an indication....South America the only region with an increase of cases +30%...Brazil, Peru, Argentina had their own variants in the past...

On a global level African countries like Kenya +61%, DRC +45% but as well (Asian) Israel cases +35%....Iceland +22%...South Africa -0,4%...southern Africa may also see new variants...so does India cases -22%...testing a major problem....

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/study-finds-unvaccinated-primary-healthcare-workers-sustained-seropositivity-up-to-20-months-aft9-and-long-lasting-sars-cov-2-humoral-immunityer-covid[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/study-finds-unvaccinated-primary-healthcare-workers-sustained-seropositivity-up-to-20-months-aft9-and-long-lasting-sars-cov-2-humoral-immunityer-covid DJ-Interesting study on long term immunity after infection (and illness) of SARS-2...The idea was SARS-1 (2003) offered long term protection against reinfection (maybe even some protection against CoViD-19/SARS-2). So the basis for a "herd immunity-idea" may have been in SARS-1 and early indications in the present CoViD-19/SARS-2 pandemic...however since then lots of indications (a.o. Brazil, Iran) for high number of people catching CoViD several times...

So knowing more on factors that help creating immunity is welcome...









Booster uptake in nursing homes now stagnant & many at high risk "are no longer concerned." Has ventilation & air filtration in nursing homes or schools been systematically improved? No. Miserable failure on the part of US public health authorities. 2/3

DJ, in any crisis information&communication are the essential basic tools....In the present healthcrises governments, media failed...went for wishfull thinking...








Long-COVID post-viral chronic fatigue and affective symptoms are associated with oxidative damage, lowered antioxidant defenses and inflammation

link [url]https://www.nature.com/articles/s41380-022-01836-9[/url] or https://www.nature.com/articles/s41380-022-01836-9 

DJ There very likely will be over a hundred million global long CoViD cases unable to work full hours...."saving the economy" did cause "economic damage" and human suffering unseen in history...

Bad politics-pushing for even more wars-resulting in (hyper)inflation destroying "the west"...Basic healthcare in most western countries soon may be collapsing...(Here in NL some healthcare facilities may have to fire staff to pay the energy bills...will be worse in other countries...). 

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 24 2022 at 10:28pm

DJ-part 2;








I'm going to draw a clear line The people advocating for 'return to normal' and dropping masks are directly putting us at risk of death This is because Long Covid kills, and Nature found the vaccine inadequate to prevent Long Covid

link article from 06/03/2022 [url]https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/03/can-long-covid-lead-to-death-a-new-analysis-suggests-it-could-00036845[/url] or https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/03/can-long-covid-lead-to-death-a-new-analysis-suggests-it-could-00036845 ;

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is analyzing more than 100 deaths that could be attributed to long Covid by looking at death certificates from across the country over the last two years, according to two people familiar with the matter.

The National Center for Health Statistics, a division within the CDC, collects death certificates from states after they have been completed by a coroner, medical examiner or doctor. NCHS is now reviewing a batch of those files from 2020 and 2021.

DJ....the definition of a CoViD-death (often) is dying within 28 days after a positive CoViD test-from/with CoViD symptoms...By now the 28-day limit should be questioned...Also what are "CoViD-symptoms" ; new variants cause more gastrointestinal problems-older variants did do more lung/respitory damage...

or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/must-read-covid-19-is-nothing-but-a-microvascular-and-endothelial-disease-that-kills-fast-or-slowly-depending-on-the-human-host-health-status 

With flu in combination with CoViD very likely getting "ugly" maybe excess deaths are the best indicators for "pandemic deaths"? 

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-university-of-glasgow-discovers-new-pathogen-that-can-evade-immune-system-comprising-of-fused-rsv-and-influenza-virus-particles[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-university-of-glasgow-discovers-new-pathogen-that-can-evade-immune-system-comprising-of-fused-rsv-and-influenza-virus-particles RSV/A-Flu virus mix may be able to get around immunity ????...On top of new CoViD "subvariants" (all will be named "Omicron" because Omicron has to be the last variant-policy/insanity...)  it could be "bad news"...

DJ, Ebola, polio etc, in first stages (and most cases do not develop further...) may look a lot like (new) CoViD symptoms...easy to miss..easy to spread...

More twitter;








Dear followers— the NYT wants to know how and why some of you have never caught COVID. What’s your secret??? Fill out the form and let  know:

DJ...Some people were high risk...never may have been infected...Certain immunity "genes" ???

The immunocompromising effects of #COVID19 infections scares the hell out of me—and it should scare the hell out of all of us if more people knew what it does to wreck our immune system. #CovidIsntOver #BringBackMasks

and

Antonio Caramia

@Antonio_Caramia
·
πŸ‘‰#HIV and #SARSCoV2 "We observe a comparable reduction in B cells in both diseases and a more severe reduction in the total amount of T cells in COVID-19 as compared to AIDS patients."

DJ...if large numbers of CoViD infections (some estimates put that number over 3 billion out of the close to 8 billion global population)  result in "major decrease" of immunity defense against all other diseases...Those diseases will "react" (like MPX very likely already did) and "spread much more"...

DJ-(my opinion when I put my initials-not an expert) In a worse case scenario we should expect a tsunami of diseases...only those that manage to isolate long term in a safe place may survive such a disaster...The more reason to do ALL we can to try to avoid such a disaster...STOP THE SPREAD !

A "global freeze" of movements to stop diseases from spreading...

End of part 2


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 25 2022 at 12:21am

Let me go for a part 3...

DJ-Of course [url]https://www.bmj.com/content/379/bmj.o2550[/url] or https://www.bmj.com/content/379/bmj.o2550 collapse of public healthcare and [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/political/30-house-dems-urge-dramatic-shift-biden-policy-ukraine-get-serious-about-diplomacy-or[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/political/30-house-dems-urge-dramatic-shift-biden-policy-ukraine-get-serious-about-diplomacy-or "confrontation politics" -more wars, are related...

The political insanity by a western political elite did not only see hundreds of billions $/€ for more weapons but also the destruction of global trade....

You need a functioning economy to be able to have decent healthcare...In many countries inflation over 10% means lots of people unable to pay for good healthinsurance...lots of healthcare facing unexpected high costs...This was avoidable...

The money spent on wars could have ended hunger, starvation, poverty...provided all the world with safe water, toilets...

Key data from