Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
Pandemic Panic? / Media Blitz |
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setag
Valued Member Joined: May 03 2007 Status: Offline Points: 274 |
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@ Mary08
We should really have a clear picture of what is going on in about two weeks. As of today, this thing is remarkably similar to the ordinary flu and the only thing strange is the government response. |
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"Good fortune is what happens when opportunity meets with planning." - Thomas Alva Edison
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Mexico may need time to sign contracts with big pharma... but enquiring minds want to know...2 weeks...it hasn't been very long, but the last few days seem like forever.
and some thoughts on the schools....
Schools walk delicate line in swine flu responseAdministrators say classrooms are safe but keep close eye on spreadBy Alex Johnson
Reporter
msnbc.com
updated 2 hours, 12 minutes ago function UpdateTimeStamp(pdt) { var n = document.getElementById("udtD"); if(pdt != '' && n && window.DateTime) { var dt = new DateTime(); pdt = dt.T2D(pdt); if(dt.GetTZ(pdt)) {n.innerHTML = dt.D2S(pdt,((''.toLowerCase()=='false')?false:true));} } } UpdateTimeStamp('633766489653430000'); Education leaders sought to reassure parents Wednesday that they had plans in place to deal with a potential swine flu pandemic and stressed that classrooms by and large remained safe places for children after President Barack Obama suggested that more schools may have to close. So far, school closings largely have been limited to districts where one or more infections with the new H1/N1 strain of influenza have been confirmed. Nearly 200 campuses have closed in Texas, most of them in the Fort Worth district, with the rest scattered in a handful of states. Article cont...
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Q&A: What does 'pandemic' mean to me?NBC's Robert Bazell on the disease's cause, risks to children and moreNBC News
updated 6:02 p.m. ET, Wed., April 29, 2009
As the swine flu outbreak continues its rapid spread around the world and the United States reported its first death from the virus, there is still considerable confusion over the new strain.
NBC Chief Science and Health Correspondent Robert Bazell answers your questions on this disturbing new disease.
article cont...
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for a few days...
Entire Nation Of Mexico Shuts Down
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MEXICO CITY, April 30 (UPI) -- Activities throughout Mexico will be curtailed through the weekend -- and longer in some cases -- in an attempt to slow the spread of swine flu, officials said.
Mexicans braced for a national shutdown of public services, offices, restaurants, schools, museum and athletic events to counter swine flu, blamed for more than 150 deaths and at least 2,000 illnesses, The New York Times reported Thursday. Mexican President Felipe Calderon said in a nationally televised speech Wednesday many service facilities would be closed Friday through Tuesday. Most federal offices will be closed. Restaurants, schools and museums also would be closed and spectators would be barred from professional soccer matches. article cont...
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This is kind of what I have been saying for 3 days. Yet as with a run on the banks, at a point, the panic, even though exceeding the reality, is as dangerous as the Pandemic.
Although I have continued posting the sequence readings which differ substantially from what is going out there, we keep hearing a broken record. We are looking at 1.5 billion dollars in pork industry and some nations are not culling birds, they are slaughtering a much larger and substantial part of the food supply and livelihood. Transparency is everything - and we need to see more data on patient 0 and if possible hog 0. The politicians are backing off from this like it was poison and the statements being made are ether. We are deeply concerned and watching this closely. We need to do more than watch. I am supposed to get more data from prepping states and basically 'what to do' beyond stay home and .... wait. We had one patient brought from Mexico, and then who died in the U.S. Of course, the effect of this is obvious. Just one death outside Mexico changes the entire scenario. Expecting word from a geneticist and basically more data and WHY several very competent people are pulling the sequence off the gene-bank database and flatly say this is pure pig. No swine yet, at least accord to one expert have had this strain. So where did it come from? Do we have a positive test on the Veracruz pig farm? Yes, its an abashed an unashamed media blitz. Personally, I think it is a diversion. We are seeing specials on jello salad on prime time, while we have major events and problems around the globe. When you see Margaret Cho with panic written all over her face, then this is very very weird. These are the people who under report, who hide cases, who always say it is not a big deal. Now they have done a 180. A Pandemic is imminent. How do they know? Are they able somehow to extrapolate how this virus is going to behave? Its all been said before. I have been posting this stuff for 3 years. Many of the main themes and concerns over and over- and now they have decided to listen because a few hundred people died in Mexico. Why? Medclinician |
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They say they are watching the winter in the southern hemisphere to help determine potential virullence of the virus.
The virus is a reassortment of 4 strains, one of them avian. Waiting on the exact content.
Live Blog: CDC Swine-Flu UpdateApril 30, 2009, 11:38 AM EDT
By Jacob GoldsteinRichard Besser (pictured), the CDC's acting director, is giving today's media update on swine flu. Here's what he's saying. 11:41 There are 109 confirmed cases in the United States. There are eleven states with confirmed cases, many more states with suspect cases. South Carolina has been added to the list of states with confirmed cases. (We’ll add a link later to the CDC page that lists cases.) Median age of patients is 16. Most recent confirmed onset is April 26, most onset dates have been after April 18. 11:43 Keep in mind a piece of context: Even routine, seasonal flu is associated with 36,000 deaths per year in the U.S. So more deaths from the swine flu are also likely. 11:44 CDC will be looking to see whether Texas's decision to close some schools proves an effective way to slow the spread of the disease. 11:45 Look for an article later today in the MMWR summarizing the data coming out of Mexico. 11:46 WHO raising pandemic alert level won't do much to change what's happening in the U.S. But it may prompt other countries that haven't yet been affected to step up their preparations. 11:47 Have completed deployments of pandemic stockpile goods to nine states. Deployments to all states should be complete by May 3. No shortages are being reported at this time. 11:47 There is now a lab up and running in Mexico that can confirm cases of the virus. 11:48 Side note: Like other officials, Besser is calling the virus H1N1. 11:49 CDC information outreach includes Twitter. Besser says CDC is 'twitting.' He adds: 'I've never twitted.' 11:52 How testing works: If a doctor suspects a case of possible swine flu, he or she takes a swab from your nose. A local lab tests to see if it is a commonly circulating strain of flu. If it is not, it's sent on to a state or national lab that can determine whether it is a case of swine flu. 11:55 In response to question about whether the disease is diminishing in Mexico: "It's premature for me to comment on the situation in Mexico." Trying to understand why the disease seems to be more severe in Mexico "is really the critical question." 11:56 Influenza travels very easily person to person. "What I expect to see here is ongoing transmission in states. I would love to see the same types of cases we’re seeing, which are primarily the less severe cases." 11:57 "It's premature to say anything about virulence." Researchers are looking at how virulent this strain is likely to be. 11:58 Preparedness: U.S. has been planning for a pandemic, but "microbes don't read the plan." Still, preparation for flu pandemic means state and local agencies start out with a basic level of understanding. 12:00 We are growing up the virus that would be used for manufacturing. We've isolated the standard strain. It hasn't been distributed to manufacturers yet. You have to grow the virus, and do some testing, before you can get into production. 12:01 The current plan is to complete the production of next year's seasonal vaccine, then manufacturers would switch over to making a vaccine against the swine flu. The final decision on that does not have to be made yet because CDC is still growing seed stock for swine flu vaccine. CDC wanted to ensure there was enough seasonal vaccine. 12:03 Computer modeling suggested that if you a potential pandemic strain starting at distant shores, and you quickly implemented strict entry screening, you might be able to delay the entry of a pandemic virus by a few weeks. But once a virus is already inside the country, as it is now, those measures don’t have any added value. 12:04 If this virus goes away, it will be hard to know whether it is likely to come back in more severe form or to go away and not come back. 12:05 A reporter asks about Biden's comment that he would tell his family members not to fly. Besser's answer: "I think flying is safe, going on the subway is safe. People should go out and live their lives." But those with fever and flu-like symptoms should not fly. 12:08 Is there change as it moves through communities? "We are seeing slight changes in the genetic makeup of the virus." But it's too soon to tell what the impact of those changes will be. There has been no changed observed in the virus’s susceptibility to antiviral drugs. info cont here....
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Swine Flu In Spain
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and
check outbreaks by Country
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scroll down the page...interesting maps-
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The latest tally was announced one day after WHO raised the pandemic threat level to 5 on a six-step scale. WHO did not change the threat level Thursday. "There is nothing epidemiologically that points to us today that we should be moving toward Phase 6," Fukuda said. Watch Dr. Sanjay Gupta demystify pandemics »
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From the CDC
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Infected people may be able to infect others beginning 1 day before symptoms develop
and up to 7 or more days after becoming sick. That means that you may be able to pass on
the flu to someone else before you know you are sick, as well as while you are sick.
In children emergency warning signs that need urgent medical attention include:
Looking better in Mexico? Not sure we can shut down the US....
CDC is poitically correct-
H1N1 Flu (Swine Flu)
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H1N1 Flu website last updated May 1, 2009, 11:00 AM ET ...........................
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4=laro
Valued Member Joined: April 18 2007 Status: Offline Points: 731 |
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medclinician, just finished reading your above post. Finally, someone besides myself is starting to ask why, what is going on. We can't believe the media blitz or anyone else. How does the who know it's going to get worse? Do they Have a new and improved virus somewhere that will soon be turned loose on the sheeple? This one kinda fizzled. Perhaps a new longer lasting one is in the works. Wake up everybody, we've been lied to constantly. We were lied to during the on going financial crisis, now this comes along and more of the same. Is this just a diversion so we can be controlled more by the government?
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How does the who know it's going to get worse?
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hi...The H1N1 (swine Flu) Virus whill now be moving to the southern hemisphere...it will certainly change over the next few months. When and if the children return to daycare/school/college... is when the virus could become a problem. The CDC/WHO /US Govt. will decide at the end of the summer if they feel the evolving strain has become virulent enough to warrent the closing of these institutions ....or if they allow them to open and the virulence at that point is high...they will likely close the above. It is difficult to predict ahead of time but they are watching it and will have a good idea in a month or two.
They are currwntly wanting to see how mexico fares when they reopen the movement of people in a few days. Will the virus blossom out again? They are watching.
In case anyone was wondering-
Current Threat LevelMay 1, 2009
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chuckwks
Valued Member Joined: February 22 2007 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 39 |
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I talked to my son who lives in Corpus Christi, TX this morning, he said they are investigating 155 flu cases as possible H1N1 in the county as of this morning. A great number of those will probably turn up as head colds, or regular influenza, but it struck me that the media quit reporting suspected cases about Monday or Tuesday. I wonder how many more locations are chasing this many or more suspected cases? And how many are really the new H1N1 variety? I believe several of you are right on target, we are looking at ten pieces of a 500 piece puzzle trying to figure out what the picture of the final puzzle looks like. It may be another week to 10 days before we see some more pieces of the puzzle. I think the word is prepare, prepare, prepare. Most people don't know what that means, and if the media told them we would have panic buying as well as public panic, neither of which the government is ready to deal with at this point. Reading the facial expressions of the CDC and WHO spokespeople, there is a great amount of stress in their faces. Chuckwks
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Chuck
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Hi Chuck...true, their lack of reporting tells us it's just to widspread now to bother counting. We can wait to see what happens in Mexico after the 5 day quarantine of the entire country. That was a hard thing to do economically...shutting down the entire country. Hope it mad a difference. Time will tell.
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We can help our Communities get ready...
Some areas will be having Pandemic Food Drives during the summer.
Help your community members in need. Location: SHOPPING LIST
Examples of medical, health, and emergency supplies
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Will people race out to the stores for purchases if WHO goes to level 6?
Perhaps people in the south..they are closer to where the illnesses began. Some people in the north act as if unaware. They are not thinking ahead to the possible in the early fall. We all will be done preparing soon...and out of the stores...right?
Get water first...as so many here say....it is the first to go.
from China...
GENEVA, May 2 (Xinhua) -- The World Health Organization (WHO) said on Saturday that the risk of a pandemic caused by the A/H1N1 virus is still very high and there is still the possibility to raise the alert level to Phase 6 from the current Phase 5.
"At the present time, I would still propose that a pandemic is imminent because we are seeing the disease spread," Michael Ryan, the agency's director for global alert and response, told a news briefing in Geneva.
article here-
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Video on New Strain
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chuckwks
Valued Member Joined: February 22 2007 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 39 |
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During a high path pandemic, what little transport of consumables, if any, will be limited to those necessary for sustaining life. Such things as pet food, laundry detergent, toilet paper, toothpaste, margarine, duct tape, clorox, pain killers, matches, hand soap, etc, will not be considered essential for sustaining life and may disappear for months. So far this has been low path influenza, but you would not be seeing the worried faces of officials in CDC, WHO, if they thought it was going to stay at this level. Nor would you see the government spending huge sums of money to release anti-virals from the stockpiles if there wasn't concern of this going to a high path influenza. The old saying of where there is smoke, there may be a fire may be our best assumption.
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Chuck
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