"Extra" MERS cases discovered. MERS CFR now 40%
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Printed Date: April 28 2024 at 8:47pm
Topic: "Extra" MERS cases discovered. MERS CFR now 40%
Posted By: Guests
Subject: "Extra" MERS cases discovered. MERS CFR now 40%
Date Posted: June 03 2014 at 12:33pm
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Saudi officials said Tuesday they had found 113 more cases of the deadly MERS virus in old medical records — and more than 90 extra deaths. The new numbers bring the total Saudi toll from MERS to 282 deaths out of 688 cases, making for a 40 percent fatality rate. http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/mers-mystery/saudi-officials-find-extra-mers-cases-n121341 |
Replies:
Posted By: Satori
Date Posted: June 03 2014 at 1:19pm
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and now the Deputy Health Minister has been sacked related ??? Deputy health minister sacked as Saudi Arabia announces 113 unreported MERS cases http://english.al-akhbar.com/content/deputy-health-minister-sacked-over-saudi-mers-handling |
Posted By: CRS, DrPH
Date Posted: June 03 2014 at 5:31pm
Thanks, that is very important! I did some very early research on the Legionnaire's Disease organism (1980), and we found that old, preserved tissue samples from years ago presented with the bacterium. It is extremely difficult to culture, and the trick wasn't discovered until after the big outbreak in Philadelphia in 1976 that brought this to the public's attention. It turns out that the bacterium had been causing a "baseline" of infections for many, many years, and patients either survived or died of "pneumonia, cause not specified." Now, we find the bacterium in swimming pools, spas, industrial cooling towers, drinking fountains, shower heads etc. So, MERS may be somewhat similar....it may have been circulating in the ecosystem for years, but did not rise to be considered a serious disease. The National Geographic article that was posted was excellent, they find antibodies to the MERS co-v in all sorts of camel populations, even geographically remote & unconnected groups (isolated camel herds on the Canary Islands!!). http://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/20/4/13-1746_article.htm - http://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/20/4/13-1746_article.htm It just gets stranger & stranger....
------------- CRS, DrPH |
LOPPER wrote:Posted By: jacksdad
Date Posted: June 03 2014 at 5:41pm
...and in samples from as far back as 1992. That was the one that blew me away  ------------- "Buy it cheap. Stack it deep" "Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
Posted By: CRS, DrPH
Date Posted: June 03 2014 at 8:58pm
Indeed! That's what makes epidemiology such an attractive field for me....all sorts of surprises! HIV turns out to have been acquired from wild primates (chimps) in Africa, by natives who like to kill & eat 'em. HIV circulates in simian populations without causing many problems, and it simmered in Africa for ages until, well, it broke out. In epidemiology, the acronym MSM doesn't mean "mainstream media," but rather "men who have sex with other men." I kid you not. In the modern era of jet aviation, international cities & fast-paced living, we'll see all sorts of things pop up. I like that AFT keeps such a close eye on things. ------------- CRS, DrPH |
Posted By: onefluover
Date Posted: June 03 2014 at 9:24pm
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. ------------- "And then there were none." |
Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: June 04 2014 at 2:36am
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We picked it over a year ago!!!!! KSA cover up!!!! Highly irresponsible This sacking of the minister is very suspect too. I'll bet he's being used as a scapegoat to hid behind.
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Posted By: Utwig
Date Posted: June 04 2014 at 2:57am
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The same thing happened with SARS, just when the WHO thought it was getting to grips with it, the Chinese authorities announced unreported cases. It seems this is standard for all governments when addressing issues like Pandemic control to underestimate (we all already knew that but its worth making sure what you think is backed up in reality), something we should all be aware of. If you take that line of reasoning and look at some numbers, with SARS the numbers announced increased the 'real' numbers by around 50% (if I remember they announced around 400) with MERS, it looks like a little under 50% but roughly in the same ball park. Can we assume then that the outbreak of Ebola spreading in west Africa is also 50% worse than is being reported? Maybe that explains why they cant contain it. Utwig. ------------- Remember to get your whole head in front of the shotgun! |
Posted By: Technophobe
Date Posted: June 04 2014 at 3:04am
Bang on Utwig!  I could not have put it better.  ------------- How do you tell if a politician is lying? His lips or pen are moving. |
Posted By: EdwinSm,
Date Posted: June 04 2014 at 3:19am
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Regarding the figure of KSA showing a CFR of around 40%. The latest figures of UAE has 10 deaths from 68 cases which is a CFR of almost 15%. This is a big difference. If the UAE report shows the 'true CFR' then KSA is missing 2 cases for every one they find. This implies that they have not been very active in testing! |
Posted By: Technophobe
Date Posted: June 04 2014 at 4:53am
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Your analysis of figures Edwin strikes me as more believable than any other yet given. Not just a valid point, but I think you have hit the nail on the head. Worryingly, that would give KSA a huge number of MERS cases, with the addititon of the 100+ recently discovered, that would give a total number of cases of well over 1,000. I hope a few people in positions of greater power than us "afters" are capable of such exquisite extrapolation, it might make them take this more seriously. ------------- How do you tell if a politician is lying? His lips or pen are moving. |
Posted By: jacksdad
Date Posted: June 04 2014 at 4:59am
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I have to agree, Edwin. I think the KSA figures are a result of shoddy testing and there are a lot more undiagnosed cases out there. I have a hard time with the 40% CFR as Europe's not seeing anything like that. ------------- "Buy it cheap. Stack it deep" "Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
Posted By: CRS, DrPH
Date Posted: June 04 2014 at 10:33am
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MERS may not be as stout of a Co-V as SARS was. We've long noticed that patients, especially mortalities, had other conditions = kidney problems etc. The Co-V is a very common type of virus, one of the main reasons for the common cold. The Egyptian tomb bat connection is fascinating, we are finding that bats are brewing all sorts of nasty pathogens which can then leap into other mammalian populations. I doubt that MERS is some type of SARS variant, it is its own Co-V. However, we see that these things leap into people, and probably have for many years. ------------- CRS, DrPH |