What we don't know
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URL: http://www.avianflutalk.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=41066
Printed Date: April 27 2024 at 1:18am
Topic: What we don't know
Posted By: arirish
Subject: What we don't know
Date Posted: February 17 2020 at 10:23pm
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What we don't know! 1. What is the reservoir? 2. How is it spread? 3. How long is the incubation period? 4. When does the patient become infectious? 5. How long does a patient remain infectious? also How long can the virus live on different surfaces? What is the ideal temperature range for the virus? What is the ideal humidity and ph range? And a hundred other questions! I think we would already have many of these answers if we were dealing with any other country! ------------- Buy more ammo! |
Replies:
Posted By: CRS, DrPH
Date Posted: February 17 2020 at 11:20pm
I have over 30 years of infectious disease epidemiology under my belt, this is good information & I trust the CDC on this. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html" rel="nofollow - https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html ------------- CRS, DrPH |
arirish wrote:Posted By: CRS, DrPH
Date Posted: February 17 2020 at 11:26pm
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From the CDC website: When a population eats bats, you have to figure that something bad will happen. The SARS-CoV-2 virus is a betacoronavirus, like MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV, both of which have their origins in bats. The sequences from U.S. patients are similar to the one that China initially posted, suggesting a likely single, recent emergence of this virus from an animal reservoir. When a population eats bats, you have to figure that something bad will happen.
------------- CRS, DrPH |
Posted By: WuTang Flu
Date Posted: February 18 2020 at 1:23pm
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I believe that was from a travel show, in Palau, several years ago. Unrelated to current events. |
Posted By: BeachMama
Date Posted: February 18 2020 at 8:37pm
| I just feel bad for the poor bat. 🦇 |
Posted By: BabyCat
Date Posted: February 18 2020 at 9:11pm
I nearly spit out my hot tea, Beachmama!  Yeah, I lived in China. For the most part, too many Chinese show themselves to be cruel to animals. Many do eat dogs - I often saw carcassess strung up outside a shop. They'll eat just about anything, and that's not racist, that's just a fact. In a Chinese Walmart, you could have live toad, eel, snake, turtle, etc. The wet markets all sorts of creatures, most cruelly caged. There's a theory I heard while living there that the more an animal is afraid when dying, the better the taste, leading to torturing animals as they are being killed, such as by boiling them alive. I worked with a dog animal rescue shelter that had to remain hidden because otherwise the dog-nappers would come and take them to sell them for meat. |
Posted By: arirish
Date Posted: February 18 2020 at 9:37pm
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Chuck: Thanks for the link! I trust the CDC too but there are a lot of Maybe's, possibles, people are thought to,might be possible in other words unknowns in the CDC statement! BabyCat said: There's a theory I heard while living there that the more an animal is afraid when dying. As a life long hunter I much prefer a drop shot! Animals that are afraid tend to produce adrenaline which makes the meat tough and tasteless and it spoils faster! ------------- Buy more ammo! |
Posted By: Technophobe
Date Posted: February 19 2020 at 12:47am
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I could not agree more, Beachmama, Babycat and Arirish. I am unlikely to give up my meat, but one of the reasons for having a smallholding is so I can kill my own chickens. That way I know for certain they have had a good life and died without fear or pain. Even air-rifles are heavily controlled here now, but once upon a time we would lie in wait for our own chickens and kill with a headshot. You can laugh if you want. ------------- How do you tell if a politician is lying? His lips or pen are moving. |
Posted By: KiwiMum
Date Posted: February 19 2020 at 11:27am
We chop the heads off ours. ------------- Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts. |
Posted By: Technophobe
Date Posted: February 19 2020 at 11:29am
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We have to now. ------------- How do you tell if a politician is lying? His lips or pen are moving. |
Posted By: CRS, DrPH
Date Posted: February 19 2020 at 12:36pm
Not unrelated at all. The COVID-19 agent is genetically proven to be a bat virus, and the wet-market in Wuhan that was the source of the outbreak sold live bats for food. Although Huanan Market is known as a seafood market, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huanan_Seafood_Wholesale_Market#cite_note-Time_Wild_2020-15" rel="nofollow - [15] it was primarily infamous for the mostly illegal[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed" rel="nofollow - - citation needed ] sale of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bushmeat" rel="nofollow - bushmeat ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ye_wei" rel="nofollow - ye wei in Chinese) and other exotic animals due to the demand for such animals for consumption. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huanan_Seafood_Wholesale_Market#cite_note-Bangkok_Post_2020-8" rel="nofollow - [8] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huanan_Seafood_Wholesale_Market#cite_note-Time_Wild_2020-15" rel="nofollow - [15] An image that had been circulating on the Internet showed a price list from a business at the market that listed prices for 112 items including a number of wild animals. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huanan_Seafood_Wholesale_Market#cite_note-CNA_2020-2" rel="nofollow - [2] According to media reports, items sold at the market included:
------------- CRS, DrPH |
Posted By: CRS, DrPH
Date Posted: February 19 2020 at 12:40pm
Welcome to the world of infectious disease epidemiology. In our official messaging, we often have to go with the best information at hand, just to inform the public and get the public health infrastructure to gear up for response. This is a severe cold virus, nothing more. Some folks have a fatal reaction because it is recently evolved from a living bat reservoir, and many times, zoonitic viruses seem most virulent when they first jump to humans. However, some like Ebola just keep on going and going. ------------- CRS, DrPH |
Posted By: roni3470
Date Posted: February 19 2020 at 1:06pm
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Ha. Trust the CDC? no thanks! ------------- NOW is the Season to Know that Everything you Do is Sacred |
Posted By: Diligent
Date Posted: February 29 2020 at 10:04pm
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Arirish. To add to your questions : What is / will be - The true ( CFR ) Case Fatality Rate D. |
Posted By: xiangzhanger
Date Posted: March 04 2020 at 4:56am
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Hi I’m Chinese and I’m not an expert on this. Hope the following information helps. 1. What is the reservoir? Not sure probably animals like pangolins or bats 2. How is it spread? a. spread rapid via aerial droplets and fomites with inhalation into the pharynx or lower respiratory tract.(one case shows 15 seconds would be enough to spread from one to another if stand close talking both without masks.) aerosol spreading is mostly possible. It can spread through central air conditioning. b.the virus could also be detected in digest system. Not sure whether it will spread through this. 3. How long is the incubation period? 1 to 14days, mostly 3-7days. The longest officially admitted cases are of 24 days. 4. When does the patient become infectious? Two days before he has symptoms. 5. How long does a patient remain infectious? Not sure. Patients can leave hospital if a. No fever for more than 3 days b. Symptoms for respiratory system is highly reduced. c. CT shows the recovery of lungs d. NAT test -“negative” for twice And the patients should stay at home for 14 days after leaving the hospital. |
Posted By: Technophobe
Date Posted: March 04 2020 at 5:16am
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What a wonderful first post! Welcome Aboard xiangzhanger ! ------------- How do you tell if a politician is lying? His lips or pen are moving. |