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What evidence do we use that 2nd wave

Printed From: Avian Flu Talk
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Forum Name: General Discussion
Forum Description: (General discussion regarding the next pandemic)
URL: http://www.avianflutalk.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=43015
Printed Date: May 01 2024 at 7:12pm


Topic: What evidence do we use that 2nd wave
Posted By: Usk
Subject: What evidence do we use that 2nd wave
Date Posted: July 01 2020 at 10:09am

2nd wave or we opened too soon

41,008 new cases yesterday
As of Wed, Jul 1, 2020, 12:12 PM EDT
https://weather.com/coronavirus/l/38.9806,-77.1008#dataSources" style="display: block; color: rgb(27, 77, 228); border: none; background-image: none; cursor: pointer; font-size: 0.8125rem !important; - Source



Replies:
Posted By: Usk
Date Posted: July 01 2020 at 10:17am

Graph to see US scroll down and move curser to https://weather.com/coronavirus/l/38.9806,-77.1008 - https://weather.com/coronavirus/l/38.9806,-77.1008



Posted By: EdwinSm,
Date Posted: July 01 2020 at 11:12am

For a second wave, usually there would be the need for a trough after the first wave.  It looks to me that initial lockdown started to produce some results, but the improvement was slow. It looks as if the ending of the lockdown came too soon (that is the virus was still widely circulating in the community allowing a rapid rise).  


The UK has been harder hit that the USA when considering deaths per population (UK 66/100,000; USA 38/100,000 as of end of June), but the UK seems to be following more of a wave pattern


My personal views are that apart from political problems to a lot of the response to this virus, the USA has structural problems (very expensive health system that does not cover the whole population, few safe guards to help the unemployed) that have forced the country to open up too fast.  These structural problems are the result of choices made over decades, and unfortunately they are causing problems now that will do great damage to the USA.  


Interestingly, although I don't have a graph for it to show you, it seems that Canada has followed a more wave like path than the States has done (its recent numbers are quite low).  Also the death rate in Canada is much lower (23/100,000), despite having a very long shared boundary.




Posted By: KiwiMum
Date Posted: July 01 2020 at 2:12pm

Originally posted by EdwinSm, EdwinSm, wrote:

My personal views are that apart from political problems to a lot of the response to this virus, the USA has structural problems (very expensive health system that does not cover the whole population, few safe guards to help the unemployed) that have forced the country to open up too fast.  These structural problems are the result of choices made over decades, and unfortunately they are causing problems now that will do great damage to the USA.  

I agree with you on this. I think that with a pandemic (any pandemic, not just this one), any country hoping to manage it and limit it's impact on it's population needs to offer 2 things: 1, free and unrestricted testing, and 2. free and unrestricted medical treatment, isolation and quarantining as required. The governments simply have to take the cost of it on the chin and provide for all. Unfortunately, some countries aren't doing this.




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Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.



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