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Printed Date: March 28 2024 at 10:29am


Topic: new variants
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Subject: new variants
Date Posted: December 24 2020 at 11:03am

France-Marseille-1 

[url]https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.23.20248758v1[/url] or https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.23.20248758v1 - https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.23.20248758v1 ;

    Abstract

Background: In Marseille, France, the COVID-19 incidence evolved unusually with several successive epidemic episodes. The second outbreak started in July, was associated with North Africa, and involved travelers and an outbreak on passenger ships. This suggested the involvement of a new viral variant. Methods: We sequenced the genomes from 916 SARS-CoV-2 strains from COVID-19 patients in our institute. The patients' demographic and clinical features were compared according to the infecting viral variant. Results: From June 26th to August 14th, we identified a new viral variant (Marseille-1). Based on genome sequences (n = 89) or specific qPCR (n = 53), 142 patients infected with this variant were detected. It is characterized by a combination of 10 mutations located in the nsp2, nsp3, nsp12, S, ORF3a, ORF8 and N/ORF14 genes. We identified Senegal and Gambia, where the virus had been transferred from China and Europe in February-April as the sources of the Marseille-1 variant, which then most likely reached Marseille through Maghreb when French borders reopened. In France, this variant apparently remained almost limited to Marseille. In addition, it was significantly associated with a milder disease compared to clade 20A ancestor strains. Conclusion: Our results demonstrate that SARS-CoV-2 can genetically diversify rapidly; its variants can diffuse internationally and cause successive outbreaks.


DJ-France identified an African (Senegal/Gambia) variant this summer (June 26-august 14)....



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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein



Replies:
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: December 24 2020 at 11:06am

Nigeria 

[url]https://globalnews.ca/news/7540767/coronavirus-new-variant-nigeria/[/url] or https://globalnews.ca/news/7540767/coronavirus-new-variant-nigeria/ - https://globalnews.ca/news/7540767/coronavirus-new-variant-nigeria/ ;

“It’s a separate lineage from the U.K. and South Africa,” the head of the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, John Nkengasong, told reporters. He said the Nigeria CDC and the African Center of Excellence for Genomics of Infectious Diseases in that country — Africa’s most populous — will be analyzing more samples.

The alert about the apparent new variant was based on two or three genetic sequences, he said, but that and South Africa’s alert late last week were enough to prompt an emergency meeting of the Africa CDC this week.

The variant was found in two patient samples collected on Aug. 3 and on Oct. 9 in Nigeria’s Osun state, according to a working research paper seen by The Associated Press.

Unlike the variant seen in the U.K., “we haven’t observed such rapid rise of the lineage in Nigeria and do not have evidence to indicate that the P681H variant is contributing to increased transmission of the virus in Nigeria.

See also [url]https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-africa/another-new-coronavirus-variant-found-in-nigeria-says-africa-cdc-idUSKBN28Y1B7[/url] or  https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-africa/another-new-coronavirus-variant-found-in-nigeria-says-africa-cdc-idUSKBN28Y1B7 - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-africa/another-new-coronavirus-variant-found-in-nigeria-says-africa-cdc-idUSKBN28Y1B7

DJ-Also different from summer Senegal/Gambia variant....It would be nice if the Nigeria CDC had more info [url]https://covid19.ncdc.gov.ng/[/url] or  https://covid19.ncdc.gov.ng/ - https://covid19.ncdc.gov.ng/  



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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein


Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: December 24 2020 at 11:16am

Iran variant ????

[url]https://kurds.liveuamap.com/en/2020/24-december-krg-close-all-border-gates-with-iran-due-to-new[/url] or https://kurds.liveuamap.com/en/2020/24-december-krg-close-all-border-gates-with-iran-due-to-new - https://kurds.liveuamap.com/en/2020/24-december-krg-close-all-border-gates-with-iran-due-to-new ;

KRG close all border gates with Iran due to new type of coronavirus for 24 days


DJ-source https://twitter.com/Bilesa_Shaweys - https://twitter.com/Bilesa_Shaweys

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Iran[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Iran - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Iran

[url]https://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/241220202[/url] or https://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/241220202 - https://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/241220202  

DJ Kurdish region just closing border with Iran to keep UK variant out ? 



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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein


Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: December 24 2020 at 11:38am

For UK variant [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/901351-england-new-variant-of-covid19-coronavirus-may-be-causing-faster-spread-in-some-areas-december-14-more-countries-ban-travel-from-uk/page5[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/901351-england-new-variant-of-covid19-coronavirus-may-be-causing-faster-spread-in-some-areas-december-14-more-countries-ban-travel-from-uk/page5 - https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/901351-england-new-variant-of-covid19-coronavirus-may-be-causing-faster-spread-in-some-areas-december-14-more-countries-ban-travel-from-uk/page5  

For SA variant [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/901816-south-africa-new-covid-19-variant-identified-501-v2-december-18-2020#post901917[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/901816-south-africa-new-covid-19-variant-identified-501-v2-december-18-2020#post901917 - https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/901816-south-africa-new-covid-19-variant-identified-501-v2-december-18-2020#post901917  

DJ-Most likely there are already lots of variants. The more variants (in humans and/or animals) the bigger the problem. Variants will mix and create new variants further away from the "original" making vaccines less effective and increasing risks for reinfections (or even catching several forms of Covid 19 in one time..). 

India [url]https://www.nationalheraldindia.com/india/covid-19-variant-causing-alarm-in-uk-is-not-a-strain-may-already-be-in-india-say-experts[/url] or https://www.nationalheraldindia.com/india/covid-19-variant-causing-alarm-in-uk-is-not-a-strain-may-already-be-in-india-say-experts - https://www.nationalheraldindia.com/india/covid-19-variant-causing-alarm-in-uk-is-not-a-strain-may-already-be-in-india-say-experts referring to UK strain

Brazil [url]https://www.marca.com/en/lifestyle/2020/12/23/5fe362ae268e3e90568b45e3.html[/url] or https://www.marca.com/en/lifestyle/2020/12/23/5fe362ae268e3e90568b45e3.html - https://www.marca.com/en/lifestyle/2020/12/23/5fe362ae268e3e90568b45e3.html ; 

According to studies carried out by the National Laboratory of Computational Science (LNCC), linked to Brazil's Ministry of Science and Technology and in partnership with the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, the strain was first detected in Rio in October.

Researchers say that 60 percent of cases with this strain are located in Rio but that measures must be taken to avoid it spreading further.

DJ this is also about UK variant ? In october ???




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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein


Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: December 24 2020 at 1:02pm

Denmark cluster5 (link to UK variant VIU2020-12-1 ?)

[url]https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/[/url] or https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/ - https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/ ; 

Since June 2020, 214 human cases of COVID-19 have been identified in Denmark with SARS-CoV-2 variants associated with farmed minks, including 12 cases with a unique variant, reported on 5 November. All 12 cases were identified in September 2020 in North Jutland, Denmark. The cases ranged in age from 7 to 79 years, and eight had a link to the mink farming industry and four cases were from the local community.

Initial observations suggest that the clinical presentation, severity and transmission among those infected are similar to that of other circulating SARS-CoV-2 viruses. However, this variant, referred to as the "cluster 5" variant, had a combination of mutations, or changes that have not been previously observed. The implications of the identified changes in this variant are not yet well understood. Preliminary findings indicate that this particular mink-associated variant identified in both minks and the 12 human cases has moderately decreased sensitivity to neutralizing antibodies.

- [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cluster_5[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cluster_5 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cluster_5 ;  Following the lockdown and mass-testing, SSI announced on 19 November 2020 that cluster 5 in all probability had become extinct. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cluster_5#cite_note-sum19nov-2" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none; - [2]

DJ Or did it survive and transform further ? 

In Denmark there have been five  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gene_cluster" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none;" title="Gene cluster - clusters of mink variants of SARS-CoV-2; the Danish  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statens_Serum_Institut" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none;" title="Statens Serum Institut - State Serum Institute (SSI) has designated these as clusters 1–5 (Danish: cluster 1-5). In cluster 5, also referred to as ΔFVI‑spike by the SSI, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cluster_5#cite_note-SSI_short_report-3" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none; - [3] several different mutations in the  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spike_protein" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none;" title="Spike protein - spike protein of the virus have been confirmed. The specific mutations include 69–70deltaHV (a deletion of the  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Histidine" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none;" title="Histidine - histidine and  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valine" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none;" title="Valine - valine residues at the 69th and 70th position in the protein), Y453F (a change from  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyrosine" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none;" title="Tyrosine - tyrosine to  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phenylalanine" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none;" title="Phenylalanine - phenylalanine at position 453, inside the spike protein's receptor-binding domain), I692V ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isoleucine" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none;" title="Isoleucine - isoleucine to valine at position 692), and M1229I ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methionine" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none;" title="Methionine - methionine to isoleucine at position 1229). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cluster_5#cite_note-:2-4" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none; - [4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cluster_5#cite_note-SSI_short_report-3" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none; - [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cluster_5#cite_note-ssi-5" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none; - [5]

Mink-related mutations that partially resemble the mutations discovered in Denmark, although part of a separate genomic group, are known from the Netherlands. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cluster_5#cite_note-NLmink-6" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none; - [6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cluster_5#cite_note-ECDC_full-7" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none; - [7]

And [url]https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/12/22/948961575/what-we-know-about-the-new-u-k-variant-of-coronavirus-and-what-we-need-to-find-o[/url] or https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/12/22/948961575/what-we-know-about-the-new-u-k-variant-of-coronavirus-and-what-we-need-to-find-o - https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/12/22/948961575/what-we-know-about-the-new-u-k-variant-of-coronavirus-and-what-we-need-to-find-o ; 

Scientists have already studied several of the mutations occurring in B.1.1.7, and they are cause for concern. One mutation, called N501Y, makes the virus bind more tightly to human cells. This mutation has also appeared, independently, in a rapidly spreading variant in South Africa.

Another mutation, called D614G, makes the virus more transmissible. B.1.1.7 also contains a small deletion in the virus's genetic code, called 69-70del, and that deletion helps the new variant evade the body's immune system in some people.

These mutations, combined with the fact that B.1.1.7 acquired many changes simultaneously, suggest this new variant didn't arise by chance, but rather the mutations are giving it an advantage. They are helping it adapt to humans.

DJ The Danish cluster 5 had  (a.o.) mutations at position 69/70 deleted, 453 Y-F, 692 I-V, 1229 M-I

UK variant had (a.o.) 69/70 deleted, 501 N-Y, 614 D-G ...are there similarities between Danish cluster 5 and new UK VUI2020.12.01 ? 

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/denmark/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/denmark/ - https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/denmark/ sharp increase in Danish cases other possible indication UK variation came from DK ???? [url]https://www.thelocal.dk/20201224/denmark[/url] or https://www.thelocal.dk/20201224/denmark - https://www.thelocal.dk/20201224/denmark ;

Denmark has discovered 33 Covid-19 infections with the new coronavirus strain that has been spreading rapidly in the UK, reported Reuters.

The  https://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKKBN28Y158" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(21, 101, 192); - State Serum Institute (SSI), Denmark’s infectious disease authority, reported on Wednesday December 23 that the new strain had be found in Covid patients, who tested positive between November 14 and December 14.

So far Denmark has analysed genetic material from 7,805 positive tests during the month-long period. Data shows that the new variant was found in approximately 0.4% of Covid infections.

However, SSI reports that this is only 13.5% of all the positive tests in that period and that percentage could change once more have been analysed.

DJ Allthough only 0,4% of the 7805 sequensed/analysed cases the 33 cases is a high number for such a small country. Other countries so far report 1 or 2 cases-not 33)..

I admit I am speculating. But there seems to be a mink-link to this UK variant-while the UK stopped mink-farming in 2000. 



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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein


Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: December 25 2020 at 12:36am

[url]https://www.debka.com/mivzak/four-covid-mutation-cases-test-positive-at-israeli-hospital/[/url] or https://www.debka.com/mivzak/four-covid-mutation-cases-test-positive-at-israeli-hospital/ - https://www.debka.com/mivzak/four-covid-mutation-cases-test-positive-at-israeli-hospital/ ;

Air passengers arriving from the UK on Monday were tested at the Sheba government hospital for the covid mutation. On Wednesday, the hospital reported that three had tested positive for the UK variant, the fourth with an unknown strain. 

DJ-an unknown strain...

They had been sent into isolation upon landing at Ben Gurion. The coronavirus director Prof. Nahum Ash commented that the Pfizer vaccine, which has been administered to more than 70,000 Israelis people since Sunday is almost certainly effective against the mutated strain. Israel has meanwhile halted all incoming flights from overseas. Israeli travelers were given a deadline for their return: those arriving up to 10 p.m. Wednesday night are allowed to spend their period of isolation at home, while those  landing later are to be transferred directly to the special quarantine hotels. A committee was set up to approve exceptions, such as sick or elderly people or mothers of infants.

DJ-At least Israel has a plan, may take isolation serious. One may hope they will give more info on the "unknown strain" (already a mix of UK and SA ? Other ?) 

It should not come as a surprise that "variations" show up with this much spread of the virus. It is good UK is monitoring how this virus developes (it is bad news the UK is doing 45% of ALL global monitoring in some claims..). 

Keeping an eye on sequences should be toppriority.



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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein


Posted By: roni3470
Date Posted: December 26 2020 at 9:37am

I notice they said they really didn't know a lot about how these mutations were going to affect the virus....with that said, how can they be so sure the vaccination will work?  I am not anti-vaccine by any means, but from a medical perspective, it seems weird to say in one sentence "we don't know enough about this new strain" and then in another "the vaccine will still work"



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NOW is the Season to Know

that Everything you Do

is Sacred


Posted By: hachiban08
Date Posted: December 26 2020 at 10:36am

Japan too now:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/covid-japan-uk-new-strain-b1778897.html" rel="noopener noreferrer - https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/covid-japan-uk-new-strain-b1778897.html

Five new cases of the https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/uk - UK -based https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/coronavirus - coronavirus variant have been detected in https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/japan - Japan , the country’s health officials have announced.

The people have been quarantined, according to local media, with officials working to confirm the routes of infection and check whether there are close contacts who could be at risk of infection.


The highly infectious variant, known officially as B.1.1.7, has already been linked to cases in a number of countries across the world, including Denmark, https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/singapore - Singapore , https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/australia - Australia , https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/italy - Italy and https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/iceland - Iceland .

Professor Neil Ferguson, a member of the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, said this week that the variant is “almost certainly” in a “great majority” of European countries.


Countries have begun closing their borders to UK travellers in an attempt to curb the spread of B.1.1.7.

Earlier this week, Japan banned the entry of foreign nationals who have been in the UK in the past 14 days.

The country’s immigration authority has also suspended the exemption of a 14-day self-quarantine measure for short-term business travellers who have returned to Japan from Britain.

And beginning Sunday, the government will require all Japanese citizens to submit upon entry a negative result from a virus test taken within 72 hours before departure.



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Be prepared! It may be time....^_^v


Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: December 26 2020 at 11:52am

DJ Looking for the Madrid-Spain cases [url]https://english.elpais.com/spanish_news/2020-12-21/in-london-people-dont-seem-very-concerned-about-the-new-coronavirus-strain.html[/url] or https://english.elpais.com/spanish_news/2020-12-21/in-london-people-dont-seem-very-concerned-about-the-new-coronavirus-strain.html - https://english.elpais.com/spanish_news/2020-12-21/in-london-people-dont-seem-very-concerned-about-the-new-coronavirus-strain.html ;

Several people who landed at Manises airport at 10.10am told EL PAÍS that besides these reinforced controls, their impression was that Londoners do not seem particularly concerned about the new strain of coronavirus that has already caused numerous countries to halt flights from the UK.

“We have seen the [UK] government acting very alarmed and even alarmist since Saturday, but people, at least in London, continue not to wear facemasks on the street,” said Natalia Requena, a healthcare worker who was flying back home for the Christmas holidays. “Many people don’t even wear them on public transportation like the Underground, where it’s mandatory, and all of that is having an effect on incidence, of course. People also don’t seem very concerned about the new coronavirus strain.”

Both Requena and her partner, Joan Gisbert, work as nurses at King´s College Hospital, in central London, which is currently under confinement orders. “Distances are not observed, either. You see tons of people on the street who are not respecting social distancing. How can all this not affect transmission?” said Gisbert.

Gisbert and Requena moved to London seven years ago in search of job opportunities that they could not find in Spain. They have first-hand experience with the toughest moments of the first wave of the pandemic, when “there were two deaths on every shift.” Now they undergo fast diagnostic tests every week at work. They are flying back to London on January 4, and do not think the new travel restrictions will pose a problem.

News of the 4 cases in Madrid-likely already infecting 3 others was in (UK press) [url]https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/26/spain-and-sweden-report-cases-of-uk-covid-variant[/url] or https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/26/spain-and-sweden-report-cases-of-uk-covid-variant - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/26/spain-and-sweden-report-cases-of-uk-covid-variant ;

Four cases of the variant have been confirmed in Madrid. All involve people who recently arrived from the UK, the Madrid regional government’s deputy health chief, Antonio Zapatero, told a news conference on Saturday.


“The patients are not seriously ill, we know that this strain is more transmissible but it does not cause more serious illness,” he said. “There is no need for alarm.”

A further three suspected cases of the new variant have been tested, but the results will only be available on Tuesday or Wednesday, Zapatero said.

-

Swedish authorities detected the new strain after a traveller from Britain fell ill on arrival and tested positive, Sweden’s health agency said on Saturday.

Sara Byfors, a health agency official, told a news conference that the traveller, who was not identified, had kept isolated after arrival in Sweden and that no further positive cases had yet been detected.

DJ-I more and more get the feeling people taking this pandemic serious are seen as "crazy ones"...it is "normal" to take the risk...With that attitude the pandemic wins. 

In SA [url]https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-safrica-idUSKBN28Z0R0[/url] or https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-safrica-idUSKBN28Z0R0 - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-safrica-idUSKBN28Z0R0 ;

“I called them back because we are in a peak period now, so it’s not easy for the staff because they also want to go back to their family members,” she told Reuters on the ward on Christmas Day.

“Sometimes they are tired but they never say ‘I can’t come to work’. The patient is really always first for them.”

A confluence of school holidays, public laxity and a new, potentially more infectious variant of the virus has left authorities scrambling to counter an earlier-than-expected resurgence of infections that saw new daily cases spike nearly seven-fold from a month ago to top 14,305 on Dec. 24.


In the US [url]https://twitter.com/alexbolze/status/1341955114043662336[/url] or https://twitter.com/alexbolze/status/1341955114043662336 - https://twitter.com/alexbolze/status/1341955114043662336 ; One key point is that the B.1.1.7 variant has not been identified in the US so far. But the US is doing very little sequencing of the virus compared to the UK for example. So really, we need more information.

DJ-The sad truth may be over ten "variants" may be running allover the globe-most not even detected yet-due to "very little sequencing"...

[url]https://www.debka.com/mivzak/british-covid-variant-identified-in-several-european-countries/[/url] or https://www.debka.com/mivzak/british-covid-variant-identified-in-several-european-countries/ - https://www.debka.com/mivzak/british-covid-variant-identified-in-several-european-countries/ ; The coronavirus mutation, linked to people who had come from the UK, was identified on Saturday in France, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland, as well as four cases in Israel. Its discovery in Britain prompted broad curbs on travel.


.



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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein


Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: December 27 2020 at 12:12am

DJ

Let me be clear-I do not want people getting depressed due to my writing. I try to inform people, in the mean time also try to be realist. 

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0l3EYrWjGEI[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0l3EYrWjGEI - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0l3EYrWjGEI Dr. John Campbell on variants and vaccines.

-Lots of cases of the UK showing up in testing. UK and Denmark (DK) are doing most of the global sequensing (="reading" virusses, also looking for changes) there for in DK they already detected 33 UK-variants in four regions. Dr.J.C. does not want to "speculate" this means UK-variant seeing community spread in Denmark-I (DJ-no science base) am willing to do so. 

-Lots of other countries around the globe report UK variants-often-but not always linked to a UK travel history. If the infected person did not had any UK travel history-and his/her contacts also did not have that it suggest community spread. DJ-For NL, Belgium it looks like community spread...

-Dr.J.C. "normal" NPI will not stop the spread of this UK variant-you need extra safety (even further limit contacts, meet outdoors, masks etc). He is even more worried about the SA variant it looks like it may bring more severe illness to younger people. (DJ-It is summer in South Africa, schools did close, party-time=also more spread in young people).

(DJ-Dr.J.C. would love to work on evidence-but in fact-with all respect, he is doing a great job !- he is speculating a lot still-we simply do not have all the facts.)

-DJ In Brazil bolsenaro (not getting a vaccination because he has had Covid 19-and therefor "natural immunity") and the Sao Paulo governer are in conflict. Bolsenaro is supporting Pfizer and AstraZeneca, the SP governer is supporting a Chinese vaccine. News of limited effectivity of that Chinese vaccine should be seen against that background.

-Dr.J.C. underlines "mutations" so far we know did change less than 1% (DJ even less then 0,1%) of the Covid19 virus. Vaccines should be able to deal with those mutations. (DJ-I am not a medical expert but I hope he is correct.)

-Pfizer/BioNTech vaccines are being used around the globe. Dr.J.C. is expecting AstraZeneca/Oxford (AZ/O) vaccine will get approval this week-production will start at 20 locations around the globe. DJ AZ/O is cheap, can be stored at fridge temperature-looks like "easy for mass production". 

-Some countries already using-as a testphase-Sputnik V and SinoVac Russian and Chinese vaccines. Lots of (cheap, easy to use) vaccines are being developed. In a few months time DJ-the picture I get there can be "billions" of vaccines available...

Will these vaccines end the pandemic, deal with the (known) variants ? In my (DJ) opinion that seems to be very likely. 

On the short term there still will be virus spread. Even a first vaccine gives (55%) protection after a few days. Vaccines may not be able to deal with all infections (94,5% effectivity means it will not work in 5,5% of the cases) but the outlook for (summer) 2021 is starting to look better...



-------------
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein


Posted By: Technophobe
Date Posted: December 27 2020 at 6:36am

Speaking as a moderator, Josh, you could NEVER depress me.  It is lovely to read threads which I do not have to moan about, edit, delete, smack wrists for or even worry about their offending someone.

Thank you!



-------------
How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving.


Posted By: ViQueen24
Date Posted: December 27 2020 at 6:50am

And I look forward to your Scenarios, so I know what's going on in the rest of the world that is not the ethnocentric US.



Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: December 27 2020 at 7:58am

Thanks Techno, ViQueen24, it is nice there is (still) room on the internet where "I can do my thing" (try to be honest on history, developments-as far as I have some basic understanding of them..) 

-[url]https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20201227001852315?section=national/national[/url] or https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20201227001852315?section=national/national - https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20201227001852315?section=national/national South Korea did see another unexpected increase of cases; 

DJ-Possible link to China (???) [url]https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/beijing-bans-travel-outside-city-for-lunar-new-year-after-new-cases-20201226-p56q8i.html[/url] or https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/beijing-bans-travel-outside-city-for-lunar-new-year-after-new-cases-20201226-p56q8i.html - https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/beijing-bans-travel-outside-city-for-lunar-new-year-after-new-cases-20201226-p56q8i.html ;

Beijing: Beijing has urged residents not to leave the city during the upcoming Lunar New Year holidays, implementing fresh restrictions after several coronavirus infections last week.

Two domestic cases were reported on Friday, a convenience store worker and a Hewlett Packard Enterprise employee. Another two asymptomatic cases were discovered in Beijing earlier in the week.

Beijing is conducting testing on a limited scale in the neighbourhoods and workplaces where the cases were found.



DJ-In a "worstcase scenario", very bad, virus variants could spread that fast, new variants show up, NPI and vaccines "may have a very hard job" to get any grip on the pandemic. China is supposed to at least keep something of a global economy going. Their vaccine-production capacity is very much needed...(Is the East Asia outbreak from the UK variant, another variant or a new East Asia variant ? )

UK variant also Madeira/Portugal and in Jordan...link with UK travel.



-------------
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein


Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: December 28 2020 at 6:39am

DJ,

NL is the only EU country not starting vaccinations yet..cases go up, hospital care is at breaking point. Part of the explanation may be in [url]https://nltimes.nl/2020/12/28/nine-cases-british-coronavirus-mutation-found-netherlands[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2020/12/28/nine-cases-british-coronavirus-mutation-found-netherlands - https://nltimes.nl/2020/12/28/nine-cases-british-coronavirus-mutation-found-netherlands ; 

A highly-contagious mutation of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus has been found a total of eleven times in the Netherlands, up from the https://nltimes.nl/2020/12/22/two-cases-british-coronavirus-mutation-found-amsterdam" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(33, 70, 139); text-decoration: underline; - two cases previously disclosed in Amsterdam . Five of the cases were tied to a primary school in Rotterdam, Health Minister Hugo de Jonge said in a letter to Parliament on Monday.

The Outbreak Management Team advising the Dutch Cabinet will meet on Wednesday to discuss the situation and provide direction with the handling of the new developments. He did not explicitly mention any new coronavirus restrictions, other than to ask the public to continue to strictly limit household guests to a maximum of two, also during New Year’s celebration.

-

Of the eleven cases in the Netherlands, five were linked to teachers and students at an undisclosed Rotterdam school. “Because an outbreak at a primary school is remarkable and much is still unknown, the RIVM, together with the GGD in Rotterdam, decided to investigate this cluster further. Not only the teachers and pupils who are infected are examined, but also the households of these teachers and pupils, and the situation at the school is also further mapped out by means of questionnaires,” De Jonge wrote.


While much was still unknown about the Rotterdam cluster, one case in Nijmegen was discovered in a person who has recently had a personal connection to the United Kingdom. Five Amsterdam cases in total have also been tied to the mutation through source and contact investigations and also random monitoring of coronavirus test samples.

“Over the course of this week and next, several hundred samples from all regions will be examined for the study of the degree of distribution in the Netherlands,” De Jonge wrote. Chantal Reusken, the leading virologist at public health agency RIVM, said she anticipated the British mutation to  https://nltimes.nl/2020/12/24/dominant-uk-coronavirus-mutation-days-away-showing-across-netherlands" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(33, 70, 139); text-decoration: underline; - show up in the Netherlands much more frequently , starting this week.

DJ-I do expect NL cases "to explode"...worse news from South Africa; [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/901816-south-africa-new-covid-19-variant-identified-501-v2-december-18-2020/page2[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/901816-south-africa-new-covid-19-variant-identified-501-v2-december-18-2020/page2 - https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/901816-south-africa-new-covid-19-variant-identified-501-v2-december-18-2020/page2 ; ‘New wave’ Covid-19 curbs loom as hospitals fill up, oxygen is rationed

27 December 2020 - 00:05BY CLAIRE KEETON

Tougher restrictions could be imposed nationwide when the National Coronavirus Command Council meets this week to discuss a Covid-19 resurgence, partly driven by a highly transmissible mutation of the virus.



Dr Andrea Mendelsohn, a senior Western Cape medical officer, wrote in an open letter to Cape Town this week: "Once the beds are full and oxygen used up - we are rapidly approaching that point - then my hospital and so many others will not be able to help. They will be clearing stations for corpses. This is my nightmare and yours.

"If hypoxic patients - where there's a lack of oxygen in the blood - are put on a waiting list for high-flow nasal oxygen, they are in all likelihood waiting to die, she wrote, appealing to people to wear masks, practise social distancing and socialise outdoors.

Dr Katrin Stüve, a senior internal medicine specialist at Helderberg Hospital in Somerset West, said people were "a lot sicker this time, with patients between 30 and 50, with no comorbidities, more critical and succumbing to the disease". She added: "In our hospital we have a small oxygen tank that used to be filled once a week, but now it gets filled every day."



https://www.timeslive.co.za/sunday-times/news/2020-12-27-new-wave-covid-19-curbs-loom-as-hospitals-fill-up-oxygen-is-rationed/" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 13px; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(35, 121, 181); text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); - https://www.timeslive.co.za/sunday-t...n-is-rationed/

(Okieman Comment: I suggest taking the time to read this article. I have bolded and put in red some of the text I found to be most important. It is one that is hard to read but I believe the world needs to look at this variant very closely. Most of the media is giving lots of attention to the UK variant, and understandably so, but this variant may be significantly more dangerous.)

DJ-Global inaction (and widespread stupidity) will ensure both SA and UK "variants" will become dominant-my guess is the SA variant will push aside the UK variant within a few months...worldwide. (Very bad news !!!)

From Israel [url]https://www.debka.com/mivzak/new-covid-infection-highest-in-7-days-also-379000-vaccinations/[/url] or https://www.debka.com/mivzak/new-covid-infection-highest-in-7-days-also-379000-vaccinations/ - https://www.debka.com/mivzak/new-covid-infection-highest-in-7-days-also-379000-vaccinations/   go together with [url]https://www.debka.com/mivzak/knesset-committee-rules-all-school-classes-to-reopen/[/url] or https://www.debka.com/mivzak/knesset-committee-rules-all-school-classes-to-reopen/ - https://www.debka.com/mivzak/knesset-committee-rules-all-school-classes-to-reopen/ The UK variant is already in Israel, (and Jordan-most likely in most of MENA Middle East/North Africa) does spread via children...what can go wrong ? Vaccinating teachers does give very limited protection-after the first vaccination. In Belgium there are plans to go for widely giving most people just one vaccination in a first round...experts warn against such ideas. If a lot of vaccinated-by just one shot-people still get Covid19 (or a variant) it may make the virus "able to evade vaccination"...since NPI has not much support left, vaccines have to do "the job" but it has to get a chance to do so ! 

[url]https://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/further-restrictions-needed-to-curb-the-spread-of-coronavirus-mkhize/[/url] or https://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/further-restrictions-needed-to-curb-the-spread-of-coronavirus-mkhize/ - https://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/further-restrictions-needed-to-curb-the-spread-of-coronavirus-mkhize/   and [url]https://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/explainer-what-is-the-new-covid-19-variant/[/url] or  https://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/explainer-what-is-the-new-covid-19-variant/ - https://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/explainer-what-is-the-new-covid-19-variant/




-------------
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein


Posted By: Technophobe
Date Posted: December 28 2020 at 7:56am

A more deadly strain has the potential to wipe itself out - dead people usually spread less virus and do so over a smaller area (they don't walk, drive or fly).  There are exceptions, but that is the 'rule of thumb'.

The UK variant is more of a worry.  The 80% fatal recent ebola outbreak killed a little over 2k.  The far less deadly coronavirus is at 1.6M and still rising.  Its ability to spread better and the lack of a high-enough death rate to worry the covidiots could give it a huge headstart.  This will become the dominant strain worldwide - FOR CERTAIN.   As Carbon says, the more patients, the better the chances of another nastier strain emerging from the next mutation.


This is never going to be the 'slate wiper', as human beings have a history of fighting off coronaviruses - like one generator of the common cold.  But it could get even more disasterous than it currently is.  

In fact it looks on course to.

The risks of an uncontrolled spread are not understood by most of the public.  They see the low death rate and make their minds up.  No further information is assimilated or researched.  Facets of the viral spread are also believed to be generaly understood, whereas in fact, they are totally beyond the mathematical grasp of the masses.

Most of the costs will only be understood by said 'masses' in hindsight.  Some never will.



-------------
How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving.


Posted By: WillobyBrat
Date Posted: December 28 2020 at 8:19am

As a point of interest, if anyone is interested in paleontology, and more specifically paleoanthropology, you can look back for hundreds of millions of years and see a series of slate-wiping events.  But going back to the beginning of the evolutionary process amongst anthropoids (which led to us) you will see that there is approximately one catastrophe for every evolutionary variant (that led to us).  Those variants, up to and including the neanderthal, were all wiped from the face of the Earth as individual species.  The neanderthallers were quite a bit smarter than us in many ways and they chose to interbreed with a smaller-brained, physically-less-powerful species rather than die out completely.  That inferior species is the only one left on this planet, us: homo sapiens, sapiens.

We have in the last hundred and fifty thousand years faced two natural massive ELE events and survived in a changed world.  Additionally we faced a series of pandemics - about one every fourth generation.  (A generation is counted as 30 years.)  Every 26 thousand years there is a naturally-caused ELE event, such as we are facing now with global warming.  We have, since our breeding with the neanderthallers (which places the crossbreeding as between 30 and 40 thousand years ago) managed to get through every fight-for-life we have been faced with.

By the way, global warming does not have to be man-made to be both real and a huge threat.  The ice began melting 13 thousand years ago and I have not noticed any remains, from various digs, of people from that time driving old SUVs.  That is NOT to say that our activities have not speeded up the change massively.

No doubt we will survive this pair of ELE events and come through as  a modified and superior species.  (It is Wonderful what a threatening situation can do to bring the best out in us.)



-------------
I like Ike


Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: December 28 2020 at 12:39pm

[url]https://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/update_new_uk_south_african_variant_covid_strains_detected_in_finland/11716211[/url] or https://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/update_new_uk_south_african_variant_covid_strains_detected_in_finland/11716211 - https://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/update_new_uk_south_african_variant_covid_strains_detected_in_finland/11716211 ;

Three people who recently returned to Finland from abroad have been diagnosed with new strains of the coronavirus, according to a joint press release from the Ministry of Social Affairs and Health (STM), the Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare (THL) and the Helsinki University Hospital District (HUS).

Two of the infections are a variant of the coronavirus that was recently identified in the UK and one has been confirmed to have been infected by the variant found in South Africa.

-

According to the joint statement, the infected patients are presently in good condition and are being treated in isolation. People who may have been exposed to the new virus variants have been quarantined and have been asked to undergo a coronavirus test.

One variant infection found earlier on Monday

Earlier on Monday, Finnish health authorities in Kymenlaakso confirmed that a new strain of the coronavirus—initially discovered in the UK—had been detected in a patient diagnosed over the Christmas holiday.

DJ-From South Africa (Suid Afrika-also a lot of Dutch people living there..) [url]https://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/sa-moves-to-an-adjested-level-3-lockdown/[/url] or https://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/sa-moves-to-an-adjested-level-3-lockdown/ - https://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/sa-moves-to-an-adjested-level-3-lockdown/ ; 

President Cyril Ramaphosa has announced that South Africa will, from today at midnight, move to an adjusted Level 3 of the lockdown in the fight against the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19). He says the number of new coronavirus cases is rising in an “alarming and unprecedented manner.”

Since Christmas Eve, there have been more than 50 000 new cases.

DJ-South Africa-bordering from west-Atlantic coast-Namibia-Botswana-Zimbabwe to east Mozambique has limited means of testing, treating large numbers of cases. Its northern neighbours are even less ready to deal with increasing cases. 

Techno-I agree "a virus can become to deadly to maintain itself"-this SA variant seems to be more infectious AND causing more severe illness (in younger patients). Why do I think the SA "variant" will even dominate the UK one ? 

1. Spreading under the radar-not only in southern Africa but most likely in other parts of the globe with communities from that area-often "without papers/legal status".  SA is "the UK of Africa for migrants". 

2. The picture I am getting the SA "variant" may be even more infectious-spreading in communities with less chances to get help in time, isolate. 

3. There is still to much international travel-not only by (smaller) planes, also by ship, train and car/truck. Western larger (air)ports may be controlled. One thing to monitor is SA cases showing up in Congo, Zambia, or even further north...The spread of the SA "variant" may move to India, Latin America before reaching Europe/US. Most people do NOT live in "the west" (as you most certainly are aware of). Both Angola and Mozambiqua (portuguese speaking) have oil export/China investments..(and with such a combination of oil & China IS/CIA activity)

4. The UK cases will be detected more and earlier-the SA cases/variants spread in hiding...

5. Vaccinations in Africa may start in Africa in 2024 ? UK variant will be under vaccine-pressure already

6. The SA variant most likely has been spreading longer-and in a much larger area. The UK is doing 45% of the sequencing of virusses worldwide. 




-------------
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein


Posted By: carbon20
Date Posted: December 28 2020 at 2:04pm

Originally posted by WillobyBrat WillobyBrat wrote:

As a point of interest, if anyone is interested in paleontology, and more specifically paleoanthropology, you can look back for hundreds of millions of years and see a series of slate-wiping events.  But going back to the beginning of the evolutionary process amongst anthropoids (which led to us) you will see that there is approximately one catastrophe for every evolutionary variant (that led to us).  Those variants, up to and including the neanderthal, were all wiped from the face of the Earth as individual species.  The neanderthallers were quite a bit smarter than us in many ways and they chose to interbreed with a smaller-brained, physically-less-powerful species rather than die out completely.  That inferior species is the only one left on this planet, us: homo sapiens, sapiens.

We have in the last hundred and fifty thousand years faced two natural massive ELE events and survived in a changed world.  Additionally we faced a series of pandemics - about one every fourth generation.  (A generation is counted as 30 years.)  Every 26 thousand years there is a naturally-caused ELE event, such as we are facing now with global warming.  We have, since our breeding with the neanderthallers (which places the crossbreeding as between 30 and 40 thousand years ago) managed to get through every fight-for-life we have been faced with.

By the way, global warming does not have to be man-made to be both real and a huge threat.  The ice began melting 13 thousand years ago and I have not noticed any remains, from various digs, of people from that time driving old SUVs.  That is NOT to say that our activities have not speeded up the change massively.

No doubt we will survive this pair of ELE events and come through as  a modified and superior species.  (It is Wonderful what a threatening situation can do to bring the best out in us.)

Agree.......

However.....the planet needs us to slow down our use of fossil fuels.....

Most have no idea when and how  coal /oil "became",like most would not have a clue where "iron"comes from!!!!!!!!!

Only want to believe in science when they board a plane,

drive a car,

need a VACCINE!!!!!!

Take care all  😷😷😉

PS.my grandchildrens genes are a mix of, Sri Lankan,Indian,German,Irish,French,English,Jewish,Polish,Portuguise,Scotish.....and who knows what else.......

Darwin rules....diversity......wins.....




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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

Marcus Aurelius


Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: December 29 2020 at 2:48am

DJ-India [url]https://www.indiatoday.in/coronavirus-outbreak/story/covid-19-india-reports-new-uk-variant-of-coronavirus-how-dangerous-is-it-1754121-2020-12-29[/url] or https://www.indiatoday.in/coronavirus-outbreak/story/covid-19-india-reports-new-uk-variant-of-coronavirus-how-dangerous-is-it-1754121-2020-12-29 - https://www.indiatoday.in/coronavirus-outbreak/story/covid-19-india-reports-new-uk-variant-of-coronavirus-how-dangerous-is-it-1754121-2020-12-29 ; 

Six of the passengers returning from the UK have tested positive for the new variant of SARS-CoV-2 that causes Covid-19. This comes at a time when India has started reporting fresh cases at a level it reported back in June. How to take entry of new variant of coronavirus in India?

Around 33,000 passengers arrived in India from the UK — where  https://www.indiatoday.in/news-analysis/story/understanding-covid19-coronavirus-uk-variant-what-it-means-for-you-1752777-2020-12-24" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; color: rgb(2, 107, 197); font-size: 17px; vertical-align: baseline; background: 0px 0px; - Now https://www.indiatoday.in/coronavirus-outbreak/story/india-reports-cases-of-new-coronavirus-strain-1754068-2020-12-29" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; color: rgb(2, 107, 197); font-size: 17px; vertical-align: baseline; background: 0px 0px; - - the new variant of SARS-CoV-2. The genome sequencing for the rest is underway at various laboratories in India.

Of the six Covid-19 patients carrying new variant of coronavirus, three are in Bengaluru’s NIMHANS, two in Hyderabad’s Centre for Cellular and Molecular Biology and the other in Pune’s National Institute of Virology. All six patients are in isolation. Their close contacts have been traced and put under quarantine. Comprehensive contact tracing is underway.

DJ-33.000 passengers to India from the UK since november 25 till the stopping of direct airlinks. Very likely tens of thousends in the weeks before that. So 50.000+ people from the Uk travelled to India while the UK variant was spreading...not good !

-[url]https://www.rt.com/uk/510965-uk-vaccines-10-times-study/[/url] or https://www.rt.com/uk/510965-uk-vaccines-10-times-study/ - https://www.rt.com/uk/510965-uk-vaccines-10-times-study/ ;

Conducted by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) and delivered to the UK’s official SAGE [The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies] advisory group late last week, the  https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: 0px 0px; color: rgb(4, 79, 170); text-decoration: none; - research notes that with a new coronavirus strain found to be “56% more transmissible” than other known variants, the country faces a significant “wave” of infections, hospitalizations and deaths short of continued restrictions and a vast ramping-up of its vaccine program.

“We found that regardless of control measures simulated, all NHS regions are projected to experience a subsequent wave of Covid-19 cases and deaths, peaking in spring 2021 for London, South East and East of England, and in summer 2021 for the rest of England,” according to the study, which was based on mathematical modeling.

We project that large resurgences of the virus are likely to occur following easing of control measures. It may be necessary to greatly accelerate vaccine roll-out to have an appreciable impact in suppressing the resulting disease burden.


While the researchers noted they could not find “clear evidence” that the new strain results in more severe symptoms, its greater transmissibility “is likely to lead to a large increase” in Covid-19 hospitalizations and deaths, even with the restrictions that were in place before December 19. Only an “England-wide” Tier 4 lockdown – currently the highest level on the country’s multi-level framework – coupled with a rapid increase in vaccinations can reduce the “peak ICU burden” to numbers below those seen in 2020.

“Our estimates suggest that control measures of a similar stringency to the national lockdown implemented in England in November 2020 are unlikely to reduce the effective reproduction number... unless primary schools, secondary schools, and universities are also closed,” the study went on, referring to the rate at which the coronavirus spreads.

However, even with the recommended 2 million vaccinations per week and a national Tier 4 lockdown, the researchers’ models estimated 35,700 additional deaths in the UK between now and the end of June. Short of the tenfold boost to inoculations and tightened restrictions, that projection soared to 118,000 deaths.

DJ-The only "good news" is the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine soon may be ready, other vaccines are almost ready for use...the UK variant is spreading high speed outside the UK....horror !



-------------
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein


Posted By: hachiban08
Date Posted: December 29 2020 at 2:13pm

It is in Colorado now.   https://www.foxla.com/news/first-known-us-case-of-uk-covid-19-variant-confirmed-in-colorado" rel="noopener noreferrer - https://www.foxla.com/news/first-known-us-case-of-uk-covid-19-variant-confirmed-in-colorado


First known US case of UK COVID-19 variant confirmed in Colorado


DENVER - The U.S. has confirmed its first case of a new, likely more transmissible variant of the coronavirus first identified in the U.K.

 

On Tuesday, Colorado Gov. Jared Polis reported that state health officials discovered the first case of the COVID-19 variant B.1.1.7 in a man in his 20s. 

 

 

"There is a lot we don’t know about this new COVID-19 variant, but scientists in the United Kingdom are warning the world that it is significantly more contagious. The health and safety of Coloradans is our top priority and we will closely monitor this case, as well as all COVID-19 indicators, very closely. We are working to prevent spread and contain the virus at all levels," said Polis in a tweeted statement. 


(I took a screenshot of that tweet because I couldn't get it to post correctly to my copied text - showed up as a server error 404)

British authorities are blaming the new variant of the coronavirus for soaring infection rates in London and southeast England. They say the new version is more easily transmitted than the original, but stress there is no evidence it makes people sicker.

In response, authorities have put a swath of England that’s home to 24 million people under restrictions that require nonessential shops to close, bar indoor socializing and allow restaurants and pubs only to operate for takeout.

  

Even so, hospital admissions for COVID-19 in southeast England are approaching or exceeding the levels seen at the first peak of the outbreak. Government figures show 21,286 people were hospitalized with the coronavirus across the U.K. on Dec. 22, the last day for which data is available. That is only slightly below the high of 21,683 COVID-19 patients who were recorded in U.K. hospitals on April 12.

On Tuesday, the United Arab Emirates detected the country’s first known cases of the B.1.1.7 variant of the coronavirus. The UAE’s National Emergency Crisis and Disaster Management Authority reported Tuesday it found "a limited number of cases received from abroad," without specifying how many or where the travelers had been.

 

UK travel restricted due to new coronavirus strain

 

Belgium, Ireland, Germany, France, Italy, and the Netherlands implemented restrictions for travel to and from the UK from Dec. 20, causing chaos at transit hubs just days before the Christmas holiday.

In response, neighboring Gulf countries halted international commercial flights. The UAE, with its large population of British expats, has remained open to tourists. Those arriving from the U.K. are required to get tested for the virus upon arrival in Dubai.

On Monday, Japan began barring entry of all nonresident foreign nationals as a precaution against the new virus strain. The Foreign Ministry says the entry ban will last through Jan. 31.

Colorado Governor Jared Polis, left, points to the Covid-19 vaccine in a small vial as he watches as Gina Harper, clinical coordinator with pharmacy, right, reconstitutes a dose of the Covid-19 vaccine before it is administered to the first patients   (Photo by Helen H. Richardson/MediaNews Group/The Denver Post via Getty Images)

 

Last week, Japan banned nonresident foreigners coming from Britain and South Africa after confirming the new variant in seven people over two days — five from Britain who tested positive at airports and two others in Tokyo.

On Sunday, officials in Canada’s most populous province also identified confirmed cases of the contagious new form of COVID-19. 

The province’s associate chief medical officer says that the cases are a couple from Durham Region, just east of Toronto, with no known travel history, exposure or high-risk contacts.

The coronavirus variant in the United Kingdom has caused global alarm because of the possibility that it might spread more easily. But experts say the COVID-19 vaccines being rolled out will likely still work on the variant.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the top U.S. infectious disease expert, said data coming from Britain indicates the vaccines still will block the virus. But the U.S. also will do tests to be sure.

RELATED: https://www.fox5dc.com/news/fauci-cdc-say-new-covid-19-strain-accelerating-spread-in-uk-may-already-be-in-us -  Fauci, CDC say new COVID-19 strain accelerating spread in UK may already be in US

Fauci previously said that the new variant has most likely already been on U.S. soil even before being positively identified in Colorado. 

"When you see something that is pretty prevalent in a place like the U.K. — there are also mutations that we’re seeing in South Africa — and given the travel throughout the world, I would not be surprised if it is already here," Fauci told PBS.

Viruses often undergo small changes as they reproduce and move through a population. In fact, the slight modifications are how scientists track the spread of a virus from one place to another.

But if a virus mutates significantly enough, one worry is that current vaccines might no longer offer as much protection. And although that's a possibility to watch for over time with the coronavirus, experts say they don't believe it will be the case with the variant in the U.K.

"My expectation is, this will not be a problem," said Moncef Slaoui, the chief science adviser for the U.S. government’s COVID-19 vaccine push.

Vaccine maker Pfizer-BioNTech told FOX Television Stations that its researchers are currently testing its vaccine, which was the first authorized for emergency use by the FDA, against the new strain of COVID-19. Researchers said they expected new strains of the virus and took that into account when developing the vaccine that’s now being distributed in the U.S.

"We don't know at the moment if our vaccine is also able to provide protection against this new variant," BionNTech's CEO Ugur Sahin said in a news conference the day after the vaccine was approved for use in the European Union. "But scientifically, it is highly likely that the immune response by this vaccine also can deal with the new virus variants."

Chris Williams and the Associated Press contributed to this story. 



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Be prepared! It may be time....^_^v


Posted By: WitchMisspelled
Date Posted: December 29 2020 at 5:28pm

Unless I missed it, the article fails to state the Colorado patient has no history of travel.  



Posted By: hachiban08
Date Posted: December 29 2020 at 6:51pm

It's embedded in that tweet from the Governor it seems, WitchMisspelled. I almost missed that too. I noticed that some other articles put it within the actual article though. I wonder if this is related to those case numbers from In-N-Out Burger that I keep seeing on the news around here out of Colorado. I don't really know the area of CO though as I've never been there, but could that have been a cause? Like a chain reaction of sorts.



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Be prepared! It may be time....^_^v


Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: December 30 2020 at 1:23am

DJ, 

Chili, Taiwan also report "UK variants". I think we are boyond the point if the "found case has recent UK travel history". The "UK variant" (UKV ?) has been spreading since-at least-september on a limited scale in the UK. Cases "exploded" in november-by then it must have been spreading outside the UK as well. (DJ-In Dutch press the US-Colorado case "in a young man with no known travel history"...)

[url]https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Dr-Fauci-The-Pandemic-Is-Out-of-Control-in-the-US-20201229-0015.html[/url] or https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Dr-Fauci-The-Pandemic-Is-Out-of-Control-in-the-US-20201229-0015.html - https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Dr-Fauci-The-Pandemic-Is-Out-of-Control-in-the-US-20201229-0015.html ; 

“We very well might see a post-seasonal - in the sense of Christmas, New Year's - surge, and, as I have described it, as a surge upon a surge,” the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID ) Director said in an interview on CNN in which he explained that the U.S. is entering a fourth spike in infections since the beginning of spring.

Fauci added that the situation "very difficult" because his country never had a period with low contagions, which would have allowed authorities to control "expansion through identification, isolation, and follow-up of contacts."

"We are really at a very critical point... as we get into the next few weeks, it might actually get worse,” he added.

DJ-A mix of events make the view on the present pandemic complex;

1 News on vaccines may have given people a false sense of safety (not onwelcome for most politicians-"they are having a succes", limiting economic damage etc. but news on vaccines does not stop spreading any virus...first vaccinations only-after a few days-give limited (40%) protection...People getting Covid19 after a first vaccination may be a very major risl factor for decreasing vaccine effectivity..)

2 Christmas/New Year most likely will see more spread less testing...

3 Schools closed during this time means spread in children/young adults may go different

The "good news"on the UK variant is that it is missing one of three segments picked up in PCR testing. The S-part 69/70 segment is deleted in the "UKV". (Except in at least one Hong Kong case-but 99% of cases) 

[url]https://www.krisp.org.za/news.php?id=460[/url] or https://www.krisp.org.za/news.php?id=460 - https://www.krisp.org.za/news.php?id=460 One question I have on the South Africa Variant (SAV) is does it also miss "part" 69/70 ? The UKv and SAV both have a "shift"at location 501 from N to Y .

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant does not answer that (yet) ;

Spread[ https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=501.V2_variant&action=edit§ion=3" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none; white-space: nowrap;" title="Edit section: Spread - edit ]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Hancock" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none;" title="Matt Hancock - Matt Hancock announced that two people who had traveled from South Africa to the UK were infected with 501.V2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant#cite_note-hancock-12" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none; - [12] On December 28, the variant had been detected in two individuals in Switzerland  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant#cite_note-14" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none; - [14] and in one individual in Finland. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant#cite_note-15" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none; - [15] By December 29 the strain had been detected in a visitor from South Africa to Japan, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant#cite_note-16" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none; - [16] and in one overseas traveller in Queensland, Australia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant#cite_note-17" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none; - [17]

DJ Since finding variants is high tech labor intensive and costly most countries do not do enough sequencing. UK=45% of the global job !!!

Both variants UKV and SAV had enough time and "flights" to spread around the globe-so they will be spreading right now....

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2020/12/30/uk-coronavirus-strain-found-school-rotterdam-area-teacher-38-died[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2020/12/30/uk-coronavirus-strain-found-school-rotterdam-area-teacher-38-died - https://nltimes.nl/2020/12/30/uk-coronavirus-strain-found-school-rotterdam-area-teacher-38-died ;

An outbreak of the B117 mutation of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, which initially emerged in the United Kingdom, was linked to a cluster of coronavirus infections at the Willibrordschool, a primary school north of Rotterdam. A 38-year-old teacher who died last Thursday was one of the people who tested positive for a coronavirus infection at the school, though it was not yet clear if she was infected with the B117 variant.

-

The school has dealt with about 40 coronavirus infections between students, parents, and teachers since the end of November. Five of them were identified as carrying the B117 mutation, the school confirmed after Health Minister Hugo de Jonge  https://nltimes.nl/2020/12/28/nine-cases-british-coronavirus-mutation-found-netherlands" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(33, 70, 139); text-decoration: underline; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 14.992px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; - released some details  about the cluster. There was no direct connection to the United Kingdom found during the source and contact investigations.

In an interview with regional broadcaster Rijnmond, Schenning said it was not yet clear if the teacher’s death was due to Covid-19, or if she was one of those infected with the UK strain. NL Times reviewed two reports from the RIVM released on Tuesday which showed the agency learned last week that one person aged 35-39 died as a result of Covid-19, and that the person killed was female.

“We have no idea how the infection originated, but we know through the GGD that there is no link with England," Schenning told the broadcaster. “Of course that is disappointing and worrisome. We are the first school in the Netherlands, so you know that there is a lot of attention for it."

DJ-A major cluster at a NL school-in NOVEMBER !!- with 5 of 40 positive cases the UKV and NO link to UK travel found indicates the UKV did spread outside the UK already in november...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variant_of_Concern_202012/01[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variant_of_Concern_202012/01 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variant_of_Concern_202012/01 ;

A variant with the same N501Y change (which may result in higher transmissibility), but with a separate lineage from the UK variant, was also  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_Variant" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;" title="501.V2 Variant - detected in South Africa . https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variant_of_Concern_202012/01#cite_note-FOOTNOTEKupferschmidt-72" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none; - [70]  The N501Y change has also been detected elsewhere: in Australia in June–July, in the US in July, and in Brazil in April, and it is not yet clear if it arose spontaneously in the UK, or was imported. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variant_of_Concern_202012/01#cite_note-73" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none; - [71]

this indicates "N501Y" mutations has been spreading at least since april...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2 may be also worth watching-will be updated





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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein


Posted By: WitchMisspelled
Date Posted: December 30 2020 at 6:12am

I haven't seen anything about In-and-Out, Hachi.  But clearly someone travelled from an infected country that didn't quarantine or was caught.  Either way, its here.  And no matter where it is in the country, we need to remain vigilant.  



Posted By: Pixie
Date Posted: December 30 2020 at 7:00am


https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/30/health/colorado-uk-coronavirus-variant/index.html -

CNN)Health officials in a Colorado county believe they've found a second local case of a coronavirus variant from the United Kingdom -- one that experts have said may be especially contagious -- a county public health director said Wednesday.


That news comes a day after the first known case of the variant in the US was announced in Colorado's Elbert County.

Both the confirmed case and the suspected instance involve men who had been working at the Good Samaritan Society assisted living facility in Simla, about 45 miles northeast of Colorado Springs, county health director Dwayne Smith told CNN.

Neither are residents of Elbert County, and they are isolating outside the county, Smith said. There is "no indication at this point" that this event has gone beyond the facility and into the larger community, he said.



Posted By: Pixie
Date Posted: December 30 2020 at 7:06am

https://bgr.com/2020/12/29/uk-coronavirus-mutation-origin-italy-brescia-patient/# -


  • New research shows that the https://bgr.com/2020/12/28/uk-coronavirus-mutation-fauci-interview/ - new coronavirus mutation spreading rapidly in England may have actually originated in Italy.
  • An immunocompromised patient developed an asymptomatic case of COVID-19, testing positive from April through November.
  • After sequencing the virus, researchers found various similarities to the UK and South African mutations that were discovered recently. Some of them speculate that the Brescia mutation might have been a precursor to the B.1.1.7 mutation in the UK.


Patient MB61 from Brescia, Italy, was immunocompromised because of an unspecified preexisting illness, which seemed to be a major risk for COVID-19. But the person never developed any COVID-19 symptoms. Italian newspaper https://www.repubblica.it/cronaca/2020/12/29/news/la_variante_bresciana_del_coronavirus_quella_inglese_e_partita_da_qui_-280269522/ - Once the virus’s genetic signature was obtained, researchers were surprised to find mutations in common with the B.1.1.7 strain. Massimo Ciccozzi told the paper that he thinks the Brescia mutation might precede the UK strain, but the researchers aren’t certain. Ciccozzi is the chief of the medical statistics and molecular epidemiology unit of the Campus Biomedico in Rome. That’s where the Brescia mutation was studied.

The mutation features a change in the spike protein that the experts call 501. The genetic change would not cause a problem for vaccines, but it could make the virus more infectious. The same mutation is found in the South African mutation that was detailed a few days ago, and it is reportedly present in 80% to 90% of infections in the African nation.

The Brescia strain had 9 mutations in August in addition to the 501 mutation. The number grew to 13 by November. La Republica notes the UK strain has 23 mutations, a few more than the previously reported 17 changes. Ciccozzi said the mutation numbers seem high, but it’s not true that the virus mutates rarely or slowly. He added that a few more weeks are needed to determine the effect of the 501 mutation on cells.

Before the UK mutation, the best-known strain of the virus was D614G, which is believed to have allowed the virus to become a pandemic. That strain has been in circulation since March, and it is believed to have originated in China. It then traveled to Europe and the US, quickly becoming the most dominant strain of the SARS -CoV-2 virus



Posted By: pheasant
Date Posted: December 30 2020 at 9:10am

"These mutations, combined with the fact that B.1.1.7 acquired many changes simultaneously, suggest this new variant didn't arise by chance, but rather the mutations are giving it an advantage. They are helping it adapt to humans."

 What is that supposed to mean? That statement sounds ominous.

Hey guys, been a while since i posted, been lurking, and notice Dutch's thread....peaked my interest.




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The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR


Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: December 30 2020 at 10:29am

DJ The Dutch november (no UK link) Rotterdam schoolcluster is now finding at least 9 UKV cases-most likely more  (most likely most of the 40) to be found.  Pixie-good info on the Italy link for UK variant.[url]https://www.rijnmond.nl/nieuws/202592/Meer-besmettingen-met-Britse-variant-van-coranavirus-in-Bergschenhoek-geen-verrassing-voor-GGD[/url] or https://www.rijnmond.nl/nieuws/202592/Meer-besmettingen-met-Britse-variant-van-coranavirus-in-Bergschenhoek-geen-verrassing-voor-GGD - https://www.rijnmond.nl/nieuws/202592/Meer-besmettingen-met-Britse-variant-van-coranavirus-in-Bergschenhoek-geen-verrassing-voor-GGD google translate

Nine students and teachers from the Willibrord School in Bergschenhoek have become infected with the British variant of the corona virus. This has been established by additional research by Erasmus MC and the GGD Rotterdam-Rijnmond.
Forty teachers, students and parents became infected in and around the school from the end of November during the outbreak. It was already known on Tuesday that five of them were infected with the British variant. On Wednesday that number increased to nine.

DJ-Samples are stored one week and then end up in medical garbage. So new testing was needed..



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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein


Posted By: carbon20
Date Posted: December 30 2020 at 1:26pm

Originally posted by pheasant pheasant wrote:

"These mutations, combined with the fact that B.1.1.7 acquired many changes simultaneously, suggest this new variant didn't arise by chance, but rather the mutations are giving it an advantage. They are helping it adapt to humans."

 What is that supposed to mean? That statement sounds ominous.



means viruses mutate....

Which has been the case for billions of years... Lol

With luck it should mutate into the common cold.....

With bad luck it goes the other way.....and cleans the planet ....lol

Take care all  😷😷😉



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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

Marcus Aurelius


Posted By: hachiban08
Date Posted: December 30 2020 at 2:16pm

Originally posted by WitchMisspelled WitchMisspelled wrote:

I haven't seen anything about In-and-Out, Hachi.  But clearly someone travelled from an infected country that didn't quarantine or was caught.  Either way, its here.  And no matter where it is in the country, we need to remain vigilant.  


This is what I was referring to (The article hasn't been updated since Christmas Eve, so no idea if any customers have reported getting covid after going to In-N-Out), when the establishments first opened in CO, the lines were estimated to be 14 hours long though, so it was heavily frequented - even a family from California intended to go there on a quest to go to every In-N-Out this year:

https://www.denverpost.com/2020/12/24/in-n-out-burger-covid-outbreaks-colorado/

    

  Colorado’s two In-N-Out locations declared COVID-19 outbreaks as 80 employees test positive     


In-N-Out Burger’s two newly opened Colorado restaurants each have active COVID-19 outbreaks with 80 staff members having tested positive for the virus between the two locations, according to state data.

The wildly popular fast-food chain debuted in the state on Nov. 20 with locations in Aurora and Colorado Springs; each now have coronavirus outbreaks among employees, according to the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment.

State health officials consider an outbreak to be two or more cases linked to the same location or event. Outbreaks are deemed to be active until four weeks have passed with no new cases.

The outbreak at the Aurora location was declared Dec. 17, with 20 staff members confirmed to have tested positive for the virus and another 16 employees listed as probable COVID-19 cases.

The Colorado Springs location’s outbreak was confirmed by the state Dec. 6. There have been 60 positive employee cases at the El Paso County site, with another nine suspected cases among staff members.

The state has not linked any customers to either outbreak.

Both restaurants remain open, and state health officials generally do not require restaurants or other retail locations with outbreaks to close.

Denny Warnick, In-N-Out’s vice president of operations, acknowledged the “concerning number of Colorado associates who have tested positive for COVID-19” in a statement, adding, “Nothing is more important to us than the health and safety of our customers and associates.”

All employees who tested positive and those who had close contact with them “have been excluded from the workplace,” Warinck said.

“We continue to work closely with our public health agencies and have confirmed the appropriate steps to help protect our communities,” he said. “These steps include: limiting staff to the minimum number necessary to serve our customers, using staff ‘cohorts’ to limit possible exposure, and limiting dining room access to takeout orders only while ensuring appropriate physical distancing.”

Since opening to much fanfare in Colorado last month, each location has experienced long lines. That mania has persisted; the drive-thru line this past Saturday in Aurora was still more than three hours long. Neither of the fast-food chain’s Colorado locations has active indoor dining due to the state’s COVID-19 regulations.

           





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Be prepared! It may be time....^_^v


Posted By: hachiban08
Date Posted: December 30 2020 at 2:26pm

Update as of 3 pm: San Diego County, male aged 30, no known travel, and they suspect it is possibly present in others in the region - ABC 7 Los Angeles


It's down in Southern California now (from other news articles, they provided no other info on the patient that contracted it):



https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article248181610.html

                New UK COVID strain confirmed in Southern California      

A mutated strain of the coronavirus thought to have originated in the United Kingdom has been confirmed in Southern California, Gov. Gavin Newsom said Wednesday during a conversation with Dr. Anthony Fauci.

 

“Just an hour or so ago, we were informed that this new variant, new strain....has been identified here in the state of California, in Southern California,” Newsom said.

 

The first case of the variant in the U.S. was identified Tuesday in Colorado. This strain of the virus is more easily transmitted between persons, but it does not make people more sick or more likely to die than the normal version of the virus, Fauci said. 

Ultimately, Fauci said he’s not surprised to see a case of the mutant strain in California. 

 

“I don’t think that the Californians should feel this is something odd,” he said. “This is something that’s expected.” 


“It looks pretty clear from the UK group that in fact the transmissibility of this mutant is more efficient than the transmissibility of the standard virus we’ve been dealing with up to now,” Fauci said.

 

“There’s no indication at all that it increases the virulency, the ability to make you sick or kill you.”




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Be prepared! It may be time....^_^v


Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: December 31 2020 at 12:20am

-Statistics may give an indication of spread of new-more infectious-variants. If they are 50/55% more infectious the number of new cases could increase-looking at this months average of over 600.000 new cases (wich may include already a lot of variants) we could face close to 1 million cases per day in january. This will increase the burder for (hospital)care. The UK variant does not bring more severe disease-still increasing numbers to above care capacity does mean more severe cases and deaths (both Covid19 and non Covid19). 

Also statistics may give an indication on changes in age groups, gender. There will be new variants. The UK variant is most known (and could be most spread). Vaccinations may be able to get a grip on the variants as well. 

-[url]https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-variant-in-south-africa-sparks-fear-of-faster-spread-possible-reinfection-11609358056[/url] or https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-variant-in-south-africa-sparks-fear-of-faster-spread-possible-reinfection-11609358056 - https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-variant-in-south-africa-sparks-fear-of-faster-spread-possible-reinfection-11609358056 (paywalled info that should be public !!!) 

DJ-It is hard to get good realistic info. Pandemic info should be public-and NOT for profit behind paywalls (and then sometimes turn out to be "no-news"). Main stream media have a public function to inform the general media. 

[url]https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/23/south-african-covid-19-variant-may-be-more-effective-at-spreading[/url] or https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/23/south-african-covid-19-variant-may-be-more-effective-at-spreading - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/23/south-african-covid-19-variant-may-be-more-effective-at-spreading ;

The South African variant of Covid-19, two cases of which have now been detected in the UK, is likely to be more transmissible, may hit young people harder, and may be slightly more resistant to vaccines, scientists in South Africa believe.

However, research is still continuing to confirm the threat posed by the variant, which does not appear to provoke more serious symptoms or require different treatment.

There are also some fears that the more numerous individual mutations of the South African variant may make it able to “re-infect” individuals who have already caught the virus and recovered.

Scientists in South Africa are still working “calmly and methodically” to fully understand the new variant, known as 501Y.V2. Data on the South African variant, which has swept across a swath of the country, has already been compared by scientists to the UK variant detected last week.

“Putting our data together with that in the UK, this [South African] variant is a bit more effective at spreading from person to person and that is not good. It means we have to get a bit better at stopping it,” said Dr Richard Lessells, one of the specialists leading research into the new variant in South Africa.

“Ours raises a few more concerns for a vaccine [than the UK variant] … Another worry is reinfection. We are currently doing the careful, methodical work in the laboratory to answer all the questions we have and that takes time.”

The mutations detected in new South African variant may allow the virus to better bind to and enter cells than previous variants, potentially easing transmission, scientists say.

-

Many cases are among young people, aged 15 to 25, but it is unclear if this is a consequence of the new variant or behaviour. A series of mass parties celebrating the end of the South African school year have been blamed for accelerating the spread of infections. A second wave had been predicted in South Africa but not for another two to six months.

 DJ (the WSJ-story may have been the same-but behind paywall...) It is summer in southern Africa. Less vaccinations, more infectious, increased risk of re-infections can make this SA variant (Variant 2020-12#2 ? V2020.12.2 ?)  become the global dominant virus. 

[url]https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant.html[/url] or https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant.html - https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant.html ; 

In South Africa, another variant has emerged independently of the variant detected in the UK. This variant, originally detected in early October, shares some mutations with the variant detected in the UK. There have been cases caused by this variant outside of South Africa. This variant seems to spread more easily and quickly than other variants. Currently, there is no evidence that it causes more severe illness or increased risk of death.

In Nigeria, another distinct variant also has been detected.

DJ-The Nigerian variant news is already several days old. Three people in Nigeria (also) seem to show coinfection of the "old"and UK variant (???)

My impression is that the world is not reacting fast enough on the increased risks of both UK and SA variants. Monitoring has to be increased, NPI should slow down (at least somewhat) the spread. "Experts" seem to want proof-more then "just"statistics for virus spread in their region. This will give more spread and death...

On the SAV [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant#Spread[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant#Spread - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant#Spread ;  On 29 December, the strain had been detected in a visitor from South Africa to Japan, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant#cite_note-16" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none; - [16]  and in one overseas traveller in Queensland, Australia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant#cite_note-17" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none; - [17]  On 30 December, the variant has been detected in Zambia.

DJ-The SA variant may be spreading in southern Africa



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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein


Posted By: Hazelpad
Date Posted: December 31 2020 at 3:30am

Our schools here in UK are to remain closed.  They say initial investigations indicates the new variant infects children easier, but havent seen data yet.

Also now saying studies say it is 56% more transmissible due to increased viral load in upper airways.  We all become superspreaders.  


Hz x 



New Covid variant linked to higher viral load in respiratory samples | Coronavirus | The Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/30/new-covid-variant-linked-to-higher-viral-load-in-respiratory-samples - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/30/new-covid-variant-linked-to-higher-viral-load-in-respiratory-samples




Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: December 31 2020 at 7:15am

[url]https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-12-31-COVID19-Report-42-Preprint-VOC.pdf[/url] or https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-12-31-COVID19-Report-42-Preprint-VOC.pdf - https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-12-31-COVID19-Report-42-Preprint-VOC.pdf  

lots of info...

In NL 4 nurses of Amsterdam University Medical Center with UKV, four more possible cases at same hospital-another cluster...



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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein


Posted By: carbon20
Date Posted: January 02 2021 at 4:57pm

National Geographic: Why new coronavirus variants 'suddenly arose' in the U.K. and South Africa.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/12/why-new-coronavirus-variants-suddenly-arose-in-uk-and-south-africa/ - https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/12/why-new-coronavirus-variants-suddenly-arose-in-uk-and-south-africa/



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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

Marcus Aurelius


Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: January 02 2021 at 11:47pm

DJ-Carbon20 interesting article on how virologists think interventions (Remdesivir, antibody therapy) may influence the virus development...

I am more simple...If 1 million infections would see one major mutation of 1 or 2 segments, if 10 million infections would see larger mutations of 10+ segments, if 100 million infections could see mutations of 100+ segments-just as an example-could be part of new variants not simply be in the number of infections ? 

If the US-according to a CDC study-may have had already over 100 million people "in contact" with the virus (+infected with no or very mild symptoms) worldwide we may be over 1 billion infections ? 

Here in NL there was a claim 30 cats, 20 dogs did get Covid19 infection from their owners. Suppose that would be 1% of all worldwide pet infections that would see 3000 cats, 2000 dogs getting infected (and that is a low estimate). Worldwide the number of infected minks has to be in the tens of millions...

The SA variant did develop differently from the UK most likely because now it is summer in SA, winter in the UK. Different (age) groups having different activities causing different patterns of spread...

And the there must be several variants we know little off-Nigeria must have one..the cluster-5 in Denmark is supposed to have ended and should have been very limited, mink related..

Just as an increase of infections means there will be more variants, an increase of variants must push the variants further away from the old Covid19 (and vaccinations). 

Is this bad ? I think Covid19 is on its way to become more similar to "cold-corona virusses". But on its way there may be some variants that can do a lot more damage than the present variants...

There should be similarity with how other virusses evolved. Others on this forum have more knowledge of that...(a tree-model with new branches-a natural growth model, next to what human interventions have an impact on virusses.)




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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein


Posted By: carbon20
Date Posted: January 03 2021 at 3:01pm

As i said in another thread.....

We are enhancing mutations by international travel....

In a few weeks we will see another mutation/varient/evolution.....

Call it what you will,

Trouble is it's already here.....

Lurking in some backwater waiting, waiting........




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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

Marcus Aurelius


Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: January 04 2021 at 2:27am

carbon20-I hate to say you may be 100% correct...new variants must be around already-simply looking on statistics-the number of (real) cases could be over 1 billion by now...

DJ,

[url]https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2021/01/04/research-into-_explosive-outbreaks-in-antwerp-province/[/url] or https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2021/01/04/research-into-_explosive-outbreaks-in-antwerp-province/ ;

The Mayor of Wuustwezel speaks of an abnormal increase in the number of cases: up 60% in seven days, while his counterpart in Lier points to outbreaks in three care homes and more serious cases than the town is used to.

Tests are being carried out to find out whether the big outbreak in a large care home in Mol, where 26 residents have died, is also linked to a new, and possibly more transmissible variant.

-

There is speculation the D614G mutation is in play.  This variant first appeared at the start of 2020 and became dominant from the summer onwards.  It’s being investigated whether it is more transmissible. This variant is not the same as the variant detected in the UK.

DJ-Maybe there is no new variant at all-just a sharp increase-maybe related to the timing of Christmas/New Year. A remark; the area is not far from the Dutch border area where there was a lot of infected minks... 



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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein


Posted By: AndyPOW
Date Posted: January 04 2021 at 12:11pm

From Flutrackers:

med-Rxiv - SARS−CoV−2 Variant Under Investigation 202012/01 has more than twofold replicative advantage


hat tip to Michael Coston for the link


SARS−CoV−2 Variant Under Investigation 202012/01 has more than twofold replicative advantage

Posted January 04, 2021.

http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4070-9500" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 13px; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(35, 121, 181); text-decoration: none; - View ORCID Profile Frederic Grabowski, Grzegorz Preibisch,  http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1215-3920" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 13px; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(35, 121, 181); text-decoration: none; - View ORCID Profile Marek Kochanczyk,  http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3488-2561" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 13px; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(35, 121, 181); text-decoration: none; - View ORCID Profile Tomasz Lipniacki
doi:  https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.12.28.20248906" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 13px; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(35, 121, 181); text-decoration: none; - https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.12.28.20248906
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/what-unrefereed-preprint" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 13px; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(35, 121, 181); text-decoration: none; - This article is a preprint and has not been certified by peer review [what does this mean?]. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should 
  • https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.28.20248906v1" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 13px; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(35, 121, 181); text-decoration: none; - Abstract
  • https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.28.20248906v1.article-info" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 13px; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(35, 121, 181); text-decoration: none; - Info/History
  • https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.28.20248906v1.article-metrics" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 13px; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(35, 121, 181); text-decoration: none; - Metrics
  • https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.28.20248906v1.full.pdf+html" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 13px; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(35, 121, 181); text-decoration: none; - Preview PDF
  • Abstract


    The novel SARS−CoV−2 Variant Under Investigation VUI−202012/01 (also known as B.1.1.7), first collected on September 20, 2020, in Kent, is a rapidly growing lineage that in the first half of December 2020 constitutes more than 1/3 of all SARS−CoV−2 genomes sequenced in England. Based on GISAID data we have shown nearly exponential growth of the VUI−202012/01 to non−VUI−202012/01 genomes ratio in the five-week period since October 19 till November 22, 2020, with weekly growth rate of 2.31 [95% CI: 2.08−2.57]. Assuming the serial interval of 6.73 days we estimated the replicative advantage of VUI−202012/01 lineage as 2.31^(6.73/7) = 2.24 [95% CI: 2.03−2.48]. Such significant replicative advantage and the fact that London serves as major international transportation hub suggest that the VUI−202012/01 strain will likely become globally dominant, hindering containment of the COVID−19 epidemics prior to massive vaccinations.
    Competing Interest Statement


    The authors have declared no competing interest.
    Funding Statement


    This study was supported by the National Science Centre (Poland) grant 2018/29/B/NZ2/00668.


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    "Every thing looks great, until you think." Dr. Al Bartlett


    Posted By: Technophobe
    Date Posted: January 04 2021 at 4:00pm

    Our government sayis it is between 40% and 70% more contagious.  The panic our government is in and the massive lockdowns underway say they are lying.

    This is a much more believable figure.  Thank you, Josh and Andy!




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    How do you tell if a politician is lying?
    His lips or pen are moving.


    Posted By: AndyPOW
    Date Posted: January 04 2021 at 5:15pm

    Originally posted by Technophobe Technophobe wrote:

    Our government sayis it is between 40% and 70% more contagious.  The panic our government is in and the massive lockdowns underway say they are lying.

    This is a much more believable figure.  Thank you, Josh and Andy!

    To be clear, the article is saying the UK variant is not 40-70% more transmissible, but 231% more, yes?



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    "Every thing looks great, until you think." Dr. Al Bartlett


    Posted By: Dutch Josh
    Date Posted: January 05 2021 at 2:29am

    AndyPOW-thanks for that terrible finding...

    DJ-I am not an expert at all-just trying "to follow the story", my English is far from perfect- Assuming the serial interval of 6.73 days we estimated the replicative advantage of VUI−202012/01 lineage as 2.31^(6.73/7) = 2.24 [95% CI: 2.03−2.48].

    could this mean "advantage" as an "extra" on a R.0 of allready around 1 ?????

    -When I look at the (late) reaction of a very strict lockdown till maybe end of february-by a conservative UK government tending close to denial-the R0 must be "alarming".

    Also basic statistics indicate the R0 must be higher-UK dealing with extreme numbers even with a lockdown in most of the UK during long enough to bring numbers down...much of Europe also moving towards stricter rules...

    DJ-Basic logics again-the more cases the more mutation-risks. If (again "IF" !!!) the R0 is that high there will not only be a lot more cases-it will also increase the number of new "variants"...

    [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number without intervention the "old" Covid19 would see an R0 of 3.28 and 5.7. NPI/lockdowns were meant-and succesfull in lots of places-to get the R0 <1 during summer...If new variants would see R0 close to 8 you are getting to the very infectious diseases...

    More aerosol spread would make the situation more alarming...

    DJ-Again I am NOT an expert !!!

    Another note-this Covid19 may be the most widespread "new" virus we have seen in recent history. The "good thing" on flu is a lot of people did once have the flu or are getting vaccinated-there is some immunity limiting spread. 

    Capacity to do the needed sequencing may not be there-has to get started (including training of staff able to do that kind of research, software to analyze the data) -is my guess/impression...Since we have been in this pandemic around one year that capacity should have had priority-it did not get that urgency in most places...

    There will be a dramatic increase of new cases worldwide-there also will be a dramatic increase of new variants worldwide...(DJ-My guess is there may not be "the luxery" of one dominant variant-we may face a whole bunch of changing variants making this pandemic even more complex...

    Again I hope I am talking non-sense, I am NOT an expert, just trying to make some sense...



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    We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
    ~Albert Einstein


    Posted By: Technophobe
    Date Posted: January 05 2021 at 6:40am

    Yes.



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    How do you tell if a politician is lying?
    His lips or pen are moving.


    Posted By: Dutch Josh
    Date Posted: January 05 2021 at 9:20am

    DJ [url]https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/jan/05/coronavirus-live-news-england-to-enter-third-lockdown-as-new-york-detects-first-case-of-new-uk-strain[/url] or https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/jan/05/coronavirus-live-news-england-to-enter-third-lockdown-as-new-york-detects-first-case-of-new-uk-strain - https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/jan/05/coronavirus-live-news-england-to-enter-third-lockdown-as-new-york-detects-first-case-of-new-uk-strain ;

    The new coronavirus variant discovered in Britain could become a pandemic within a pandemic, Switzerland’s infection control chief said on Tuesday.

    Switzerland, where daily case numbers are at a high level, has found the mutation in 28 samples - all people who arrived from Britain, or people with whom they had been in contact, AFP reports.

    “This new variant could behave like a new pandemic within the pandemic,” Virginie Masserey, head of the health ministry’s infection control department, told journalists in the capital Bern.

    “That is to say it could spread exponentially and, indeed, add a new wave to the existing wave.

    “That’s why it is very important to really respect the measures that are recommended, to really reduce the number of infections.”

    The new variant has been found in seven of the 26 Swiss cantons, including Zurich, Geneva and Bern.

    “These mutant strains are now present in Switzerland and, according to scientific experts, they are much more infectious,” said Rudolf Hauri, president of the Association of Cantonal Doctors.

    “Given that in Switzerland, the activity or the spread of the virus has been far too high for several weeks... we must absolutely try to delay the increased spread of this strain.”

    If the new variant could not be controlled, tighter restrictions would be necessary, said Masserey.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/jan/05/coronavirus-live-news-england-to-enter-third-lockdown-as-new-york-detects-first-case-of-new-uk-strain?page=with:block-5ff495c88f08eeb0b2e00c2d#block-5ff495c88f08eeb0b2e00c2d" itemprop="url" style="background: transparent; touch-action: manipulation; color: rgb(199, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none; -

    The UK has recorded a new record for the number of coronavirus cases with a further 60,916 lab-confirmed cases as of 9am on Tuesday - the highest daily total reported so far. It brings the total number of cases in the UK to 2,774,479.

    The government said a further 830 people had died within 28 days of testing positive for Covid-19 as of Tuesday, bringing the UK total to 76,305.

    Separate figures published by the UK’s statistics agencies for deaths where Covid-19 has been mentioned on the death certificate, together with additional data on deaths that have occurred in recent days, show there have now been 92,000 deaths involving Covid-19 in the UK.

    Yvonne Doyle, medical director for Public Health England, said:

    An estimated 1 in 50 people in private households in England had Covid-19 between December 27 and January 2, the Office for National Statistics said.

    Just some items...still there is also some positive news; [url]https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/01/05/putin-germanys-merkel-discuss-joint-coronavirus-vaccine-production-a72544[/url] or https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/01/05/putin-germanys-merkel-discuss-joint-coronavirus-vaccine-production-a72544 - https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/01/05/putin-germanys-merkel-discuss-joint-coronavirus-vaccine-production-a72544   ;

    Putin and Merkel discussed cooperation in the fight against Covid-19 “with an emphasis on potential prospects for the joint production of vaccines,” according to a statement on the Kremlin’s website.

    The talks follow Putin’s  https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/01/05/russias-coronavirus-vaccine-faces-production-problems-putin-says" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; outline: none 0px; box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration: none; color: rgb(50, 99, 192); cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.2s ease 0s, background-color 0.2s ease 0s, opacity 0.2s ease 0s, background-position 0.2s ease 0s, box-shadow 0.2s ease 0s, border 0.2s ease 0s; -  last year that domestic equipment shortages could delay Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine from entering mass production. Reports also said Russia was struggling with production capacity issues and problems with  https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/11/04/russia-not-on-track-for-mass-coronavirus-vaccination-by-year-end-the-bell-a71951" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; outline: none 0px; box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration: none; color: rgb(50, 99, 192); cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.2s ease 0s, background-color 0.2s ease 0s, opacity 0.2s ease 0s, background-position 0.2s ease 0s, box-shadow 0.2s ease 0s, border 0.2s ease 0s; - .

    Alexander Gintsburg, the director of the state-run Gamaleya research center that developed Sputnik, on Tuesday said that over 1 million people in Russia have received the jab so far.

    DJ The only way out of this crisis is international cooperation...

    South Africa;

    [url]https://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/nehawu-says-healthcare-workers-in-gauteng-are-under-siege/[/url] or https://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/nehawu-says-healthcare-workers-in-gauteng-are-under-siege/ - https://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/nehawu-says-healthcare-workers-in-gauteng-are-under-siege/ ;

    The National Education, Health and Allied Workers’ Union (Nehawu) says healthcare workers in Gauteng are under siege and are struggling to treat the soaring levels of COVID-19 patients in the province.

    Nehawu is concerned that it could get worse as more residents return to Gauteng after spending the holiday period at the coast or at rural homes.

    Medical experts say the infection rate is likely to climb in the coming weeks and will put more pressure on already strained healthcare facilities.

    https://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/gauteng-braces-itself-for-rapid-increase-in-daily-covid-19-infections-makhura/" style="color: rgb(70, 94, 174); text-decoration: none; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; transition: color 0.2s ease-out 0s; - Gauteng is bracing itself for a spike in COVID-19 infection s and is stepping up efforts to curb the spread. They have targeted roadblocks and tollgates to screen and test those returning to the province.

    -

    Healthcare facilities in the province are already overburdened. Trade union Nehawu says the country’s largest hospital, the Chris Hani Baragwanath hospital in Soweto, is like a death trap for healthcare workers.

    Nehawu’s Gauteng Co-ordinator, Clement Marule, expects the situation to get worse because of the lack of essential Personal Protective Equipment to protect their members.

    The Chris Hani Baragwanath Hospital is overwhelmed. Majority of the workers who are testing positive are nurses, that’s our worry. In ward 20, we are told, we lost one nurse this morning. In the same ward, 19 workers tested positive. In stores, another 19 tested positive. We are informed that most of the wards, they are not provided with the necessary PPE. Our concern is that the members are not coping and they are in very serious distress. We hope the premier will step up the game because we are under siege as Gauteng.”

    DJ One of the worst scenario's is running out of HCW because "they all get infected" ...Rich infected people may try to go abroad for help-even further spreading the virus.  

    [url]https://africacdc.org/covid-19/[/url] or https://africacdc.org/covid-19/ - https://africacdc.org/covid-19/ allthough very poor statistics there are some indication the SA-variant is already spreading in southern Africa..



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    We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
    ~Albert Einstein


    Posted By: ksc
    Date Posted: January 05 2021 at 3:08pm


    See new Tweets


    Posted By: Dutch Josh
    Date Posted: January 06 2021 at 2:39am

    DJ-The SA variant;

    -may infect more younger age groups

    -may evade (some) vaccines

    -may spread even faster then the UK variant

    Some remarks; It is summer in southern Africa-so more social (outdoor) activity, summer parties for some. But due to poverty people have to make a living. Less testing and reporting means the virus will spread further. Also it could be much of Africa did have lower numbers then other parts of the world-the population may be more vulnarable...

    There is still not known about this variant. Other variants can make the picture even less clear...[url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/01/06/dutch-girl-17-detained-switzerland-trying-fly-covid-infection[/url] or  https://nltimes.nl/2021/01/06/dutch-girl-17-detained-switzerland-trying-fly-covid-infection - https://nltimes.nl/2021/01/06/dutch-girl-17-detained-switzerland-trying-fly-covid-infection (SA-variant ?)

    [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/why-new-mutant-covid-strain-ravaging-south-africa-has-scientists-extremely-worried[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/why-new-mutant-covid-strain-ravaging-south-africa-has-scientists-extremely-worried - https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/why-new-mutant-covid-strain-ravaging-south-africa-has-scientists-extremely-worried  

    DJ-The UK variant may have 10x more viral part shedding...Erasmus UMC/Rotterdam University Marianne Koopmans (virologist) is saying.  (I did find another link from her [url]https://www.erasmusmc.nl/en/research/departments/viroscience/articles/marion-lancet-sarscov2-outbreaks-on-mink-farms[/url] or https://www.erasmusmc.nl/en/research/departments/viroscience/articles/marion-lancet-sarscov2-outbreaks-on-mink-farms - https://www.erasmusmc.nl/en/research/departments/viroscience/articles/marion-lancet-sarscov2-outbreaks-on-mink-farms not (yet) on study on the UK variant..)



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    We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
    ~Albert Einstein


    Posted By: Dutch Josh
    Date Posted: January 06 2021 at 4:48am

    From [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/903159-denmark-statens-serum-institute-ssi-estimate-of-covid-variant-b-1-1-7-growth[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/903159-denmark-statens-serum-institute-ssi-estimate-of-covid-variant-b-1-1-7-growth - https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/903159-denmark-statens-serum-institute-ssi-estimate-of-covid-variant-b-1-1-7-growth ;

    As community immunity to the virus grows - either through natural infection or vaccination - the more evolutionary pressure there is for the virus to reinvent itself in order to survive. It's why influenza returns every year, despite acquired immunity and vaccines.


    Suddenly, we find ourselves in a race against two variants (and likely more on the way) that could seriously change the COVID-19 pandemic's dynamics.

    While it is too soon to say how much of an impact it might have, other variants with the E484K mutation have  http://pais.qb.fcen.uba.ar/files/reportes/pais-reporte10.pdf" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 13px; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(35, 121, 181); text-decoration: none; - turned up recently in Argentina and Brazil . The good news is most variants will prove to be evolutionary failures, or will provide no functional advantage to the virus.

    Which is why reducing the spread of SARS-Cov-2 - and in particular, the more transmissible variants - is viewed as critical right now. A 70% transmissibility advantage - as estimated with the B.1.1.7 variant - is enough to turn it into the dominant strain anywhere it is introduced in a matter of weeks.

    -


    The growth rate of the English virus variant cluster B.1.1.7 is estimated in a new  https://www.ssi.dk/-/media/cdn/files/scenarier_for_udviklingen_i_den_engelske_virusvariant_af_sars-cov-2.pdf?la=da" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 13px; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(35, 121, 181); text-decoration: none; -  , led by SSI

    Although the overall level of infection and contact numbers currently appear to be declining, SSI expects the infection to rise again anyway. This is because as the English variant spreads, the infection will increase exponentially. It shows  https://www.ssi.dk/-/media/cdn/files/estimerede_scenarier_for_udviklingen_i_cluster_b117.pdf?la=da" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 13px; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(35, 121, 181); text-decoration: none; -  .

    If the current contact number of 0.96 does not change, the number of daily infections is expected to exceed 4,000 by the end of February.

    If, on the other hand, it is possible to lower the contact number to 0.8 for the old variants, the infection can be kept under control for a longer period, after which it will increase again.

    If the increase in infection is to be completely curbed, however, it is necessary to reduce the contact number for the old variants to 0.7 (corresponding to 1.05 for the English variant). It is against this background that SSI recommends further restrictions and measures. We managed to lower the contact number to approximately that level during the closure in March and April 2020.

    -

    That could change, of course, depending on how well the current vaccines work against one (or hopefully both) of these variants. And any that follow.


    While I remain cautiously optimistic, we should be prepared for a long haul, as SARS-CoV-2 is unlikely to go quietly into the night.


    https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2021/01/denmark-statens-serum-institute-ssi.html" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 13px; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(35, 121, 181); text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(235, 244, 249); - https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2021/...itute-ssi.html

    DJ-Problem is testing for old variant is still far from 100%, the new variants may be spreading under the radar...only fast strict action can decrease the risks..



    -------------
    We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
    ~Albert Einstein


    Posted By: Dutch Josh
    Date Posted: January 06 2021 at 7:31am

    Via flutrackers; [url]https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/south-africa-covid-variant-appears-to-obviate-antibody-drugs-dr-scott-gottlieb-says.html[/url] or https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/south-africa-covid-variant-appears-to-obviate-antibody-drugs-dr-scott-gottlieb-says.html - https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/south-africa-covid-variant-appears-to-obviate-antibody-drugs-dr-scott-gottlieb-says.html ; 

    DJ-Obviate is evade, avert. I wonder if the above info is correct-the SA variant "prevalent" (dominant) in South America and Brazil". There is discussion on if the UK or SA variant will be most seen within 5 to 8 weeks worldwide. I (DJ) tended believe the SA-v would get dominant-now I think a "new" variant may even push the old, UK, SA (and some other) variants aside. 

    Gottlieb cited experimental evidence from https://twitter.com/jbloom_lab/status/1346442000472580098" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(32, 119, 182); text-decoration: underline; cursor: pointer; - Bloom Lab , and explained 501.V2  does appear to partially escape prior immunity. It means that some of the antibodies people produce when they get infected with Covid, as well as the antibody drugs, may not be quite as effective.

    “The new variant has mutated a part of the spike protein that our antibodies bind to, to try to clear the virus itself, so this is concerning,” Gottlieb said. “Now, the vaccine can become a backstop against these variants really getting more of a foothold here in the United States, but we need to quicken the pace of vaccination.”

    DJ-In short the SA variant seems to be able to reinfect...even overcome/evade vaccination...

    Newer variants will most likely develop multible ways-some still will be stopped by vaccination, earlier infection, others may be seen by all of us as a "new virus"...My hope is these variants-on the long run-will develop towards a "common cold virus"...

    (I hesitate on another scenario; multiple variants "jumping up and down on mammals"-a SF-dark-scenario...)

    -In NL a second school in the Rotterdam area has a cluster of UK-variant Covid-at least 30 cases...(DJ-Since NL also has links with South Africa both the UK and SA variants must be spreading...) NL most likely will become the 19th country with over 1 million cases end of this month. We only have 17,5 million in population...




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    We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
    ~Albert Einstein


    Posted By: Technophobe
    Date Posted: January 06 2021 at 8:44am

    The article is probably correct, but clearly passed on from one source to another without double checking or editing.  

    How do I know this?  They are all making the same gramatical error:  "Obviate" means "remove the need for", not "avoid".  "The parquet flooring obviates the need for a carpet." for example, or "The death of the dog obviates the need for a leash."   As it stands, the comment by  Dr Gottleib suggests the disease either cures itself, or is so rapidly fatal as to be untreatable.  I  think these meanings are entirely unintended by the good Doctor.  

    The word the articles should be using is evade:  “The South Africa variant is very concerning right now because it does appear that it may evade some of our medical countermeasures, particularly the antibody drugs,” Dr. Scott Gottlieb should have said.  [That would mean the disease was far harder to treat.]

    I am utterly certain it is what he meant.



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    How do you tell if a politician is lying?
    His lips or pen are moving.


    Posted By: Technophobe
    Date Posted: January 06 2021 at 9:03am

    My appologies:  I should have said: "Everyone just quoted it verbatim, except our own Dutch Josh."

    You sometimes wonder 'aloud' if your English is up to the job, Josh.  Don't! 

    It may be your second language, DJ, but you clearly speak it better tham many "learned" folks for whom it is their first language. 

    This rather proves the point for you.



    -------------
    How do you tell if a politician is lying?
    His lips or pen are moving.


    Posted By: Dutch Josh
    Date Posted: January 06 2021 at 10:25am

    Techno-thanks ! In a newer article the use "evade" ;

    “It really is a race against time trying to get more vaccine into people’s arms before these new variants become more prevalent here in the United States,” said Gottlieb.

    If the 501.V2 strain can evade antibodies, then it will evade all antibodies that can bind to the spike protein of the original coronavirus strains. This includes neutralizing antibodies that the immune system produces in response to the SARS-CoV-2 infection, the neutralizing antibodies used  https://bgr.com/2020/11/17/coronavirus-treatment-eli-lilly-bamlanivimab-antibodies-explained/" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 13px; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(35, 121, 181); text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); - in monoclonal drug therapies  like the drug President Trump took during his bout with COVID-19, and the neutralizing antibodies that vaccines will elicit.

    It’s unclear how effective vaccines will be against the South African strain, as more research will be required. Drugmakers can adapt the vaccines to address the new 501.V2 spike, but that will take some time. Even if current vaccines and antibody drugs have a lower efficacy against 501.V2, they could still provide some protection.

    “The mutations that most reduce antibody binding usually occur at just a few sites in the [receptor-binding domain (RBD)]’s receptor binding motif,” Bloom Lab’s abstract reads. “The most important site is E484, where neutralization by some sera is reduced >10-fold by several mutations, including one in emerging viral lineages in South Africa and Brazil. Going forward, these serum escape maps can inform surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 evolution.”

    DJ [url]https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.31.425021v1[/url] or https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.31.425021v1 - https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.31.425021v1 (my non-expert reaction, vaccinations can not help us for now, NPI can...)

    UK variant (In NL at least 50 cases so far-must be spreading...most in Amsterdam, Rotterdam region-two largest cities..)

    [url]https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/211933/neil-ferguson-uks-covid-situation-bleak/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter[/url] or https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/211933/neil-ferguson-uks-covid-situation-bleak/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter - https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/211933/neil-ferguson-uks-covid-situation-bleak/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter ;

    The team  https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/196234/covid-19-imperial-researchers-model-likely-impact/" rel="noopener" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; line-height: 1.5em; text-decoration: none; color: rgb(15, 130, 145); font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: 0.2px; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); - published a landmark report in March  which estimated that suppression measures - such as social distancing - would be needed until a vaccine became available otherwise infections would rebound quickly.

    Professor Ferguson said: "We always anticipated back in February and March, with the initial analysis of how this virus spread, that while lockdown measures and social distancing could be effective as we’d seen in Italy and China, they only work for as long as they are in force, and if you relax those measures there comes a critical point where transmission starts resurging and that’s exactly what we saw across Europe in the autumn." 

    -

    Speaking about the long-term outlook for the pandemic, Professor Ferguson said: "Looking forward we’re going to be living with coronavirus indefinitely, we’re never going to eliminate it from the human population, it will evolve, and we may need to regularly update our vaccines."

    DJ-Vaccination in most countries only is getting started...it may take months before enough people did get their vaccines to see some effect. Variations seem to show up ever faster...(Not even thinking of any other illness showing up-or the mental healthcrisis evolving...foodcrisis...) Maybe "vaccinating in a bubble" all those vaccinated can move into a safe zone-might work to get some grip. It may be to early for such drastic and dramatic ideas...(those outside the bubble-maybe some in a 'waiting zone'-others may have to find a way to survive....very dark scenario...again-hope I'm wrong...we will not end up there within a year...

    UK numbers today are shocking 62,322 new cases, 1041 deaths in just one day...UK population just over 68 million-so almost 0,1% tested positive in a single day...



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    We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
    ~Albert Einstein


    Posted By: Hazelpad
    Date Posted: January 07 2021 at 9:48am

    You are right it is terrible here in UK  just now.  Lot of myrelatives and friends work in NHS frontline.  Many vaccinated 3 weeks ago so are working flat out for patients.  

    Coronavirus tracked: UK now has more new Covid cases per capita than any other country in the world

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/covid-cases-uk-latest-data-b1782693.html - https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/covid-cases-uk-latest-data-b1782693.html



    Posted By: Dutch Josh
    Date Posted: January 07 2021 at 12:41pm

    In NL 1 to 5% of all new cases are most likely the UK variant-with the 5% in Amsterdam/Rotterdam area. Still the idea is we have had the peak in hospital cases....don't experts follow the news....[url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/01/07/netherlands-reports-sharp-36-jump-coronavirus-infections[/url] or  https://nltimes.nl/2021/01/07/netherlands-reports-sharp-36-jump-coronavirus-infections - https://nltimes.nl/2021/01/07/netherlands-reports-sharp-36-jump-coronavirus-infections



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    We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
    ~Albert Einstein


    Posted By: Dutch Josh
    Date Posted: January 08 2021 at 11:28pm

    DJ The explosion of cases in the US can be largely explained by massive flying-over 115 million people during Christmas and New Year. But of course the US did everything they could to invite and unite all kind of variants from all over the globe. Due to privacy-rules the virus-flying for free-can spread in the US undetected...But most of the explosion of cases will have to do with no masks, travel around the globe...

    [url]https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/08/white-house-covid-task-force-warns-of-possible-new-usa-variant-driving-spread.html[/url] or https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/08/white-house-covid-task-force-warns-of-possible-new-usa-variant-driving-spread.html - https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/08/white-house-covid-task-force-warns-of-possible-new-usa-variant-driving-spread.html ;

    The CDC issued a statement saying it has not seen the emergence of a highly contagious new U.S. variant of the coronavirus, unlike variants in the U.K. and South Africa. It noted, however, that there are probably many variants emerging across the globe.

    DJ-Of course the reality is the CDC has hardly capacity to find the variants the US is welcoming with open doors...The White House coronavirus task force said there could be a new variant of the virus that evolved in the U.S. and is driving spread, according to a document obtained by NBC News.

    DJ-Would it not be nice if there was a group trying to find the facts by now ? The UK reported the UK variant a month ago...."could be" ? @#%#$!#$ do your job-find it-by now !!!! The US did find a few UK variants...I think the Task Force is correct in thinking there "may be variants" spreading around in the US-but act !!!

    "The house is on fire, bet let us finish diner" is a new normal ???

    [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/903434-fda-issues-alert-regarding-sars-cov-2-viral-mutation-to-health-care-providers-and-clinical-laboratory-staff[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/903434-fda-issues-alert-regarding-sars-cov-2-viral-mutation-to-health-care-providers-and-clinical-laboratory-staff - https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/903434-fda-issues-alert-regarding-sars-cov-2-viral-mutation-to-health-care-providers-and-clinical-laboratory-staff ; The U.S. Food and Drug Administration is alerting clinical laboratory staff and health care providers that the FDA is monitoring the potential impact of viral mutations, including an emerging variant from the United Kingdom known as the B.1.1.7 variant, on authorized SARS-CoV-2 molecular tests, and that false negative results can occur with any molecular test for the detection of SARS-CoV-2 if a mutation occurs in the part of the virus’s genome assessed by that test.

    DJ-The only good thing of this text is that it is down to the basics....variants may evade testing...

    -Here in NL emergency daycare for children (in vulnarable position or parent(s) with essential jobs) have to accept children "with a cold"-ministry of education ruled. Some centers were refusing those children out of fear for the UK variant spreading in NL. As a result even less staff will be available...Our "Outbreak Management Team" (That OMT is supposed to have the best experts in the country...) admitted it was wrong to claim last summer 12-18 year old did not need social distancing "because the virus is only a risk for older age groups"....

    -Also a reminder [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Banana[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Banana - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Banana ; The Blue Banana (also known as the European Megalopolis or the Liverpool–Milan Axis) is a discontinuous corridor of  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urbanization" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;" title="Urbanization - urbanization  spreading over  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Europe" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;" title="Western Europe - Western  and  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Europe" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;" title="Central Europe - Central Europe , with a population of around 111 million

    DJ-So far most of the UK variants-spread is in Amsterdam/Rotterdam area for NL. Urban regions are perfect for virus spread. 

    -[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/new-zealand-ad/902884-new-zealand-6-rapidly-spreading-uk-virus-strain-b-1-1-7-covid-19-coronavirus-cases-january-2-2021#post902885[/url] or  https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/new-zealand-ad/902884-new-zealand-6-rapidly-spreading-uk-virus-strain-b-1-1-7-covid-19-coronavirus-cases-january-2-2021#post902885 - https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/new-zealand-ad/902884-new-zealand-6-rapidly-spreading-uk-virus-strain-b-1-1-7-covid-19-coronavirus-cases-january-2-2021#post902885 DJ Australia, New Zealand, China-Bejing Area are on "high alert" for the new variants...since in Taiwan a New Zealand pilot of a cargoplane managed to spread the UK variant-it has to be clear even stricter controls on travel is needed...




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    We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
    ~Albert Einstein


    Posted By: Kilt5
    Date Posted: January 09 2021 at 2:30am

    This pandemic is no joke and has only just started.

    1 the virus mutates and is more infectious and will if it hasn't already, mutated around the vaccines

    2 the hospital system will collapse - is collapsing

    3 the virus will become deadlier - SARS was 10% fatality rate


    People not wearing masks is only making it worse - wear a mask or die - avoid other people or die



    Posted By: Dutch Josh
    Date Posted: January 09 2021 at 8:55am

    [url]https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-france-variant/twenty-one-people-have-tested-positive-for-uk-variant-of-covid-in-marseille-idUSKBN29E0LG?feedType=mktg&feedName=healthNews&WT.mc_id=Partner-Google[/url] or https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-france-variant/twenty-one-people-have-tested-positive-for-uk-variant-of-covid-in-marseille-idUSKBN29E0LG?feedType=mktg&feedName=healthNews&WT.mc_id=Partner-Google - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-france-variant/twenty-one-people-have-tested-positive-for-uk-variant-of-covid-in-marseille-idUSKBN29E0LG?feedType=mktg&feedName=healthNews&WT.mc_id=Partner-Google ;

    PARIS (Reuters) - Twenty-one people in the southern French city of Marseille have tested positive for the new variant of COVID initially found in England, the Marseille police department said on Saturday.

    The police department added that the new cases of the variant had been discovered within a family cluster.

    DJ In NL cases are decreasing-the stricter lockdown seems to have some effect. But the rules should result in lower number of cases...there is growing fear "variants" are spreading in NL. 

    -New variant in Argentina [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/903510-argentina-pais-report-on-covid-e484k-variant-in-south-america[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/903510-argentina-pais-report-on-covid-e484k-variant-in-south-america - https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/903510-argentina-pais-report-on-covid-e484k-variant-in-south-america ; 

    which carries one of the mutations (E484K in the spike protein) also found in the 501Y.V2 variant which was first picked up in South Africa.



    Posted By: carbon20
    Date Posted: January 09 2021 at 2:10pm

    It's mutating  everyday with every new person it infects........

    All air travel should cease, 

     international  travel should  cease.......NOW......



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    Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

    Marcus Aurelius


    Posted By: AndyPOW
    Date Posted: January 10 2021 at 8:20am

    https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1348219003278389249" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 13px; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(35, 121, 181); text-decoration: none; - https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/statu...19003278389249

    https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/08/covid-19-reinfection-tracker/" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 13px; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(35, 121, 181); text-decoration: none; - https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/0...ction-tracker/

    https://watermark.silverchair.com/ciab014.pdf?token=AQECAHi208BE49Ooan9kkhW_Ercy7Dm3ZL_9Cf3qfKAc485ysgAAArMwggKvBgkqhkiG9w0BBwagggKgMIICnAIBADCCApUGCSqGSIb3DQEHATAeBglghkgBZQMEAS4wEQQMfVVJTPzWkf4reAhSAgEQgIICZsGy_375bgGxBxF3fBPW7_Bu3BrucUXhwZ_OhAqW-bpDvTCkOWWZkgrp5PKrjV5QOBVsdjstGqkT_r7udiVlaCi0eEkVPaWMQ-5paZiGxd9ghtOr5hD60ijRDSeA2xsuHv9zHbkFfGvOOGYB6lOMrHYe6hGR-HzKUMzsSmHkXgPXTxJj8Tp_4mqfGLRWXoMBz3LJY2OrP3Zv5wBY9eQ7prgSDXZPMGfmOFw_g33V1FCFL-Wjpatz4dLGXxSOEgtFRZUW7k_-q_ncRUH2P1xDs5fSFHKmW_PIHHuz2-2uwXQIWBbLFi74JX0JzaHNO54n-LAiWraVFX4xIFyfAdOeDKgbHijQG0mckkr-gKAaYjrlgfIAfFxSlypceXeGYNM7y0TLUXqwVi3Hl0IqXU2Stg7NeHO8kBmyMQf1Sd-Hu6GkB6_hM1Hv3VVNZ7daVJW7i0vCgVxp51K2mnCVpg2JsNf2fXiiC0sYLJXLK4SKRRBo2L_j9X8FAmYYi74X2O8SysK1P_RYLsk0Q62CPYHYpsqarErq89oPjRMUHdRUSM0YXUBLyjBd_noS7oIs4gCdNfWxZ46xzZMFKPveqSITzwS1mJ4QtV3at5y-hRUO5vvjgijn8cC06wUbUrKuVQ9vs66hwUrR7O1B6_3Bp_Uio0-EIod21a9d3jM43IeF6Cg7TopBddyVDFPH4KONXns1ArY00cQxFl5Y_Q4IqVbmH9NPnORaVwAF8QQFvp7bPAgsqUkTpBdXXVrYwmZdiFoUVPk4jGytldtoShzRNslTInlzORuUo8w9x3OJjo1MeBf0V_mcQ9QA" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 13px; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(35, 121, 181); text-decoration: none; - https://watermark.silverchair.com/ci...1MeBf0V_mcQ9QA


    SARS-CoV-2 antibodies (using the Roche anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgM/IgG assay detecting antibodies targeting viral nucleocapsid ‘N’ antigen) were detectable on 6 occasions between the 4th June 2020 and 13th November 2020 with no evidence of antibody waning seen.
    and yet this case was reinfected with the new B117 variant. Should imagine this is very bad news for the immunisation program - with the current vaccine. The vaccine program will remove the old - less virulent - strain from the circulating program and lead to a higher percentage of the B117 variant - or will it just ensure fewer people are infected and end up in hospital. Either way - people who have been vaccinated should still be vulnerable to the new variant.
    “The only security we have is our ability to adapt."


     


    -------------
    "Every thing looks great, until you think." Dr. Al Bartlett


    Posted By: AndyPOW
    Date Posted: January 10 2021 at 8:31am

    From an abundance of caution it should considered that not only will the vaccine suppress the original strain and thereby enhance the new variant's spread, but may also enhance the severity of a second infection.  This is not an unknown risk, it happened with SARS.



    -------------
    "Every thing looks great, until you think." Dr. Al Bartlett


    Posted By: Dutch Josh
    Date Posted: January 10 2021 at 9:55am

    China ; [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/903536-china-are-frozen-covid-19-coronavirus-imports-from-argentina-and-brazil-with-variant-e484k-responsible-for-new-spread-can-china-stop-it-this-time[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/903536-china-are-frozen-covid-19-coronavirus-imports-from-argentina-and-brazil-with-variant-e484k-responsible-for-new-spread-can-china-stop-it-this-time - https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/903536-china-are-frozen-covid-19-coronavirus-imports-from-argentina-and-brazil-with-variant-e484k-responsible-for-new-spread-can-china-stop-it-this-time  

    DJ-AndyPOW-would NOT vaccinating become a better choice-or wait for vaccines able to deal with more variants ?  It is getting very confusing by now...People that had a Old variant infection get more severe outcome from new variants...

    Dr.John Campbell would love the idea people that did get SARS-1 in 2003 still have (some) immunity against Covid19/SARS-2. That idea is incorrect ? Is there more then one case- could it be that case (old variant-severe ill with new UK variant) is not what would become the norm ? 

    Besides from reinfections and vaccines maybe less effective-variants may also escape (old) testing methods...  So to keep track several tests could be needed ? 



    -------------
    We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
    ~Albert Einstein


    Posted By: Technophobe
    Date Posted: January 10 2021 at 11:03am

    There are no truly good options, only less bad ones.

    Both the UK and original strains of the disease are covered by the vaccine.  The South African variant (b117 according to one of the articles quoted - I am unsure this is correct.) is an unknown quantity for the vaccine.

    In theory, getting the vaccine therefore prevents infection two thirds of the time.  The South African variant is no more deadly, but seems to be more deadly if you have had the original strain or the UK strain already.  So, whereas the vaccine may not protect you from catching it, it may still protect against a nastier disease developing from it - as you would not have had the original disease and therfore would have taken no damage from it; said damage is probably the main reason for the worse outcomes the second time around.  (Long covid could render any, otherwise mild disease, deadly.)

    Whoever KiwiBird is, they fail to understand the full list of possible outcomes.  This is common for twitter tweeters (just look at the Trump twitter thing!)  and the news channel came to no such conclusions.

    I could not get the last link to function.

    There are no certanties here, this is a new virus (there are a lot of 'may's in my reply for good reason).  But the ballance of risk falls in favour of having the vaccine.  However, sensible people would not completely rely upon it, as there is still a BIG roll for social distancing and quarrantine methods.  



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    How do you tell if a politician is lying?
    His lips or pen are moving.


    Posted By: ksc
    Date Posted: January 10 2021 at 12:21pm


    Japan finds new COVID virus strain, distinct from UK and Africa types

    https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coronavirus/Japan-finds-new-COVID-virus-strain-distinct-from-UK-and-Africa-types - https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coronavirus/Japan-finds-new-COVID-virus-strain-distinct-from-UK-and-Africa-types



    Posted By: ksc
    Date Posted: January 10 2021 at 12:29pm

    White House warns of possible new “United States” variant of COVID-19 (NBC) 

    https://news.yahoo.com/white-house-covid-19-task-211727231.html - https://news.yahoo.com/white-house-covid-19-task-211727231.html



    Posted By: ksc
    Date Posted: January 10 2021 at 12:31pm

    New #Nigeria #Coronavirus #Variant P681H “has the 501 mutation”

    A new variant of the coronavirus, P681H, has been identified, this time in Nigeria, with a separate lineage from the variants found in the UK and in South Africa, John Nkengasong, head of the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC), said on Thursday.

    “The one we are seeing in Nigeria, and this is based on very limited data yet, has the 501 mutation,” Nkengasong added, referring to the variant termed 501.V2 identified in South Africa and announced by public health officials there on Dec. 18.

    https://www.coronaheadsup.com/africa/new-nigeria-coronavirus-variant-p681h-has-the-501-mutation/ - https://www.coronaheadsup.com/africa/new-nigeria-coronavirus-variant-p681h-has-the-501-mutation/



    Posted By: Dutch Josh
    Date Posted: January 10 2021 at 12:49pm

    Techno the B117=the UK variant...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2 thank you for trying to make some sense-as far as possible for now...bad news...

    From the KSC  (thank you) Japan link ;

    TOKYO -- A new variant of the virus behind COVID-19 has been detected in Japan, the country's Health Ministry announced on Sunday.

    It was found in four people -- male and female, ranging from their teens to their 40s -- who arrived from Brazil. While there are similarities to strains first reported in the U.K. and South Africa, this particular type does not appear to have been spotted before.

    This brings to 34 the number of confirmed infections from a variant strain in Japan. Of these, three are cases in which the person did not arrive from overseas, including two cases of the U.K. strain found on Sunday.

    DJ-All over the world variant showing up-maybe coinfecting species/humans...creating new variants...with limited sequencing capacity...a nightmare !



    -------------
    We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
    ~Albert Einstein


    Posted By: ViQueen24
    Date Posted: January 10 2021 at 7:53pm

    https://nypost.com/2021/01/09/cdc-refutes-report-of-new-highly-contagious-covid-strain-in-us/ - https://nypost.com/2021/01/09/cdc-refutes-report-of-new-highly-contagious-covid-strain-in-us/

    CDC refutes report of new highly contagious COVID-19 strain in US

    By Eileen AJ ConnellyJanuary 9, 2021 | 11:46am | Updated

    Enlarge Image

    The CDC has refuted a report indicating that a new highly contagious COVID-19 strain is circulating.

    The CDC has refuted a report indicating that a new highly contagious COVID-19 strain is circulating.Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

    MORE ON:

    CORONAVIRUS

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    There is no highly contagious new variant of the coronavirus in the US despite reports that a new strain of the deadly bug was circulating here.


    Officials said reports that suggested a new mutation were based on speculative statements made by Dr. Deborah Birx of the White House Coronavirus Task Force, but are not accurate, the New York Times reported Saturday.


    The rumor came from a meeting during which Birx discussed graphs that showed the sharp increase in the virus’ spread across the country. She theorized that a new, more transmissible variant originating in this country might explain the rapidly escalating number of cases, the way a highly-contagious new variant found in the UK did in Britain.


    Her hypothesis made it into a weekly report sent to state governors, CNBC reported. “This acceleration suggests there may be a USA variant that has evolved here, in addition to the UK variant that is already spreading in our communities and may be 50% more transmissible,” the report said.


    SEE ALSO 


    Highly contagious UK variant of COVID-19 found in NY for first time

    CDC officials did not agree with her assessment and asked to remove it from the report, but were unsuccessful, the Times said. Following news reports about the potential variant, the agency issued a formal statement refuting the theory. “To date, neither researchers nor analysts at CDC have seen the emergence of a particular variant in the United States,” spokesman Jason McDonald said.


    He noted that all viruses evolve and there are likely many variants around the globe evolving simultaneously. “However, it could take weeks or months to identify if there is a single variant of the virus that causes COVID-19 fueling the surge in the United States similar to the surge in the United Kingdom.”


    Dr. Birx could not immediately be reached for comment.


    The UK variant, which has driven a surge there that is overwhelming hospitals, has been found in multiple states, including New York. The CDC estimates that it accounts for less than 0.5 percent of cases in the country so far.


    Dr. Deborah Birx speaks during a White House Coronavirus Task Force briefing in November.

    Dr. Deborah Birx speaks during a White House Coronavirus Task Force briefing in November.

    Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images

    A second variant has been in the United States for three months and also accounts for fewer than 0.5 percent of cases, so it is unlikely to be more contagious than other variants, a CDC official told the Times



    Posted By: Dutch Josh
    Date Posted: January 11 2021 at 8:46am

    [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/903633-china-ccdc-covid-19-variant-501y-v2-detected-in-airplane-pilot-%E2%80%94-guangdong-province-jan-6th-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/903633-china-ccdc-covid-19-variant-501y-v2-detected-in-airplane-pilot-%E2%80%94-guangdong-province-jan-6th-2021 - https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/903633-china-ccdc-covid-19-variant-501y-v2-detected-in-airplane-pilot-%E2%80%94-guangdong-province-jan-6th-2021 ; 

    A little over a year ago, China launched their own version of the U.S. CDC's MMWR, called the  http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 13px; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(35, 121, 181); text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(235, 244, 249); -  It is published in English, and It's format is quite similar to the MMWR, including a `Notes From The Field' style report.

    Although not as well distributed internationally as the B.1.1.7 variant which first emerged in the UK, this variant is worrisome because it carries the E484K mutation, which has been  https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.31.425021v1" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 13px; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(35, 121, 181); text-decoration: none; - has been tentatively linked to reduced antibody recognition, which in turn may decrease immune protection acquired from prior infection or vaccination.

    Genomic sequencing takes time, and there is often a backlog, so it was more than three weeks after admission that samples were sent to China's CDC for analysis. On January 5, 2021, the sample and virus isolates were sequenced and identified as being the 501Y.V2 variant.

    For more on this potentially problematic E484K mutation, you may wish to revisit:


    https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2021/01/preprint-genomic-evidence-of-sars-cov-2.html" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 13px; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(35, 121, 181); text-decoration: none; - PrePrint: Genomic Evidence of a Sars-Cov-2 Reinfection Case With E484K Spike Mutation in Brazil

    https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2021/01/argentina-pais-report-on-covid-e484k.html" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 13px; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(35, 121, 181); text-decoration: none; - Argentina: PAIS Report On COVID E484K Variant In South America

    https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2020/12/preprint-emergence-rapid-spread-of-new.html" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 13px; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(35, 121, 181); text-decoration: none; - PrePrint: Emergence & Rapid Spread of a New SARS-CoV-2 Lineage with Multiple Spike Mutations in South Africa


    https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2020/12/preprint-emergence-rapid-spread-of-new.html" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 13px; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(35, 121, 181); text-decoration: none; - https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2021/01/ccdc-weekly-covid-19-variant-501yv2.html

    DJ So a pilot did bring the SA variant to China december 8-was tested at arrival-isolated when test was positive...



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    We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
    ~Albert Einstein


    Posted By: Dutch Josh
    Date Posted: January 12 2021 at 8:48am

    DJ-Israel hard hit by UK variant [url]https://www.debka.com/covid-infection-rockets-to-9583-new-israel-cases-in-24-hours/[/url] or https://www.debka.com/covid-infection-rockets-to-9583-new-israel-cases-in-24-hours/ - https://www.debka.com/covid-infection-rockets-to-9583-new-israel-cases-in-24-hours/ ; 

    The ministry of health reports a record number of new coronavirus cases – 9,583 since Monday, the highest number since the pandemic’s outbreak last March. There were also a high 7,6pc positive tests out of 127,000. In hospital are 1,027 seriously ill patients, of whom 247 are on ventilators. The death toll has reached, 3,704.

    Since last Friday, Israel has been on a stringent lockdown. The steep rise in contagion is attributed by a group of scientists at the Weitzman Institute to the growing prevalence of the highly transmissible “British mutant.” Altogether 504,269 active cases are currently registered in Israel.

    DJ [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/903722-covid-19-south-africa-variant-could-evade-our-medicines-says-drug-company-about-antibody-drug-regeneron-january-12-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/903722-covid-19-south-africa-variant-could-evade-our-medicines-says-drug-company-about-antibody-drug-regeneron-january-12-2021 - https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/903722-covid-19-south-africa-variant-could-evade-our-medicines-says-drug-company-about-antibody-drug-regeneron-january-12-2021 ; 

    more...


    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/12/covid-variant-found-in-south-africa-could-evade-eli-lillys-antibody-drug-ceo.html?utm_term=Autofeed" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 13px; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(35, 121, 181); text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(235, 244, 249); - Covid variant found in South Africa ‘could evade’ Eli Lilly's antibody drug: CEO (cnbc.com)

    -China [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/903724-china-national-government-official-called-for-a-reduction-in-unnecessary-travel-and-gatherings-in-an-effort-to-limit-the-spread-of-infections-january-12-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/903724-china-national-government-official-called-for-a-reduction-in-unnecessary-travel-and-gatherings-in-an-effort-to-limit-the-spread-of-infections-january-12-2021 - https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/903724-china-national-government-official-called-for-a-reduction-in-unnecessary-travel-and-gatherings-in-an-effort-to-limit-the-spread-of-infections-january-12-2021 and [url]https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3117299/covid-19-china-steps-government-planning-limit-lunar-new-year[/url] or https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3117299/covid-19-china-steps-government-planning-limit-lunar-new-year - https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3117299/covid-19-china-steps-government-planning-limit-lunar-new-year mix of variants and Chinese New Year could restart pandemic problems...



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    We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
    ~Albert Einstein


    Posted By: Dutch Josh
    Date Posted: January 12 2021 at 11:21am

    DJ-In NL 2 to 5% of all infected have the UK variant-with around 140,000 cases 2800-7000 UK variants. Expected to become the dominant virus. So far 100 UK variant cases have been found...

    This evening the PM an d Health Minister gave a pressconference; no mandatory quarantine, no stop in airtravel, no curfews...it is very limited given what is going on in the UK, Ireland, Israel (and in someways the US..NL has also a few SA variants-unclear what the numbers are there). 

    [url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/01/12/dutch-lockdown-extended-curfew-consideration-schools-open-early-pm-dont-travel[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/01/12/dutch-lockdown-extended-curfew-consideration-schools-open-early-pm-dont-travel - https://nltimes.nl/2021/01/12/dutch-lockdown-extended-curfew-consideration-schools-open-early-pm-dont-travel ; 

    “This variant is now responsible for a small percentage of the infections, but it is expected that this will increase,” Health Minister Hugo de Jonge at the news event. “We have to slow down the spread of the British variant.” 

    “My fear is that we will now end up in the same situation with the new variant, where the numbers explode. You cannot have such a dangerous virus here, which is why we are looking at extra measures,” Rutte stated.

    “Vaccination is the trump card we have in our hands to get out of this misery,” De Jonge said.

    No traveling until Spring

    Rutte also stressed that members of the public should not travel for at least the next six to ten weeks. The government believes that each trip abroad increases the risk of more infections domestically. “Stay in the Netherlands until March. Do not book trips, unless it is due to enormous economic importance or serious family circumstances," he said.

    -Also in other west European countries variants must be increasing...

    [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/903710-russian-lymphoma-patient-acquired-18-covid-19-mutations-in-months-long-disease-study-finds#post903710[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/903710-russian-lymphoma-patient-acquired-18-covid-19-mutations-in-months-long-disease-study-finds#post903710 - https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/903710-russian-lymphoma-patient-acquired-18-covid-19-mutations-in-months-long-disease-study-finds#post903710 ; MOSCOW (Sputnik) - A Russian lymphoma patient with long-term COVID-19 has acquired 18 mutations of the virus in over four months duration of the disease, according to the preprint of a study published at virological.org.

    -

    "We report a genomic analysis of SARS-CoV-2 from a lymphoma patient with long-term COVID-19. This genome is characterized by an independent gain of 18 new mutations over more than 4 months of the disease. These include the S:Y453F and Δ69-70HV mutations (‘the ΔF combination’) which have formerly been associated with mink-related clusters," the preprint read.

    The mutations developed in a 47-year-old female lymphoma patient, who goes by Patient S in the study. Patient S likely contracted the virus when she was on planned chemotherapy in a hospital...

    -DJ Russia also has a lot mink-fur-farming...




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    We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
    ~Albert Einstein


    Posted By: Dutch Josh
    Date Posted: January 13 2021 at 12:32pm

    Two "new" US variants;  

    One of the new strains, found in just one patient in Ohio, contains a mutation identical to the now-dominant variant in the U.K., researchers said, noting that it “likely arose in a virus strain already present in the United States.” However, the “Columbus strain,” which the researchers https://wexnermedical.osu.edu/mediaroom/pressreleaselisting/new-sars-cov2-variant" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(32, 119, 182); text-decoration: underline; cursor: pointer; - said in a press release has become dominant in the city, includes “three other gene mutations not previously seen together in SARS-CoV2.”

    “This new Columbus strain has the same genetic backbone as earlier cases we’ve studied, but these three mutations represent a significant evolution,”  http://https//pathology.osu.edu/faculty/jones.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(32, 119, 182); text-decoration: underline; cursor: pointer; - Dr. Dan Jones , vice chair of the division of molecular pathology at Ohio State and lead author of the study, said in a statement. “We know this shift didn’t come from the U.K. or South African branches of the virus.”


    DJ - One "variant" UK-like, the Columbus strain more new. 

    [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/895273-us-at-least-15-000-mink-dead-as-coronavirus-spreads-among-fur-farms-in-utah-wisconsin-michigan-oregon-at-least-12-mink-farms-infected-some-staff-infected-in-oregon-wild-mink-in-utah[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/895273-us-at-least-15-000-mink-dead-as-coronavirus-spreads-among-fur-farms-in-utah-wisconsin-michigan-oregon-at-least-12-mink-farms-infected-some-staff-infected-in-oregon-wild-mink-in-utah - https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/895273-us-at-least-15-000-mink-dead-as-coronavirus-spreads-among-fur-farms-in-utah-wisconsin-michigan-oregon-at-least-12-mink-farms-infected-some-staff-infected-in-oregon-wild-mink-in-utah  

    Maybe related ? 

    [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2 updated with Malaysia-variant (Sabah A701B)...

    (I would like to have more info on South American variants-both the ones from Brazil and Argentina and spread of SA and UK variant...)

    In NL there will be three large scale testing operations a.o. to seek for the spread of the UK variant-in two of these testing programs over 60,000 people will get tested. 



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    We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
    ~Albert Einstein


    Posted By: KiwiMum
    Date Posted: January 13 2021 at 12:37pm

    I'm interested in the Brazilian variant but haven't been able to find out much info on it yet.



    -------------
    Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.


    Posted By: ksc
    Date Posted: January 13 2021 at 12:49pm

    Originally posted by KiwiMum KiwiMum wrote:

    I'm interested in the Brazilian variant but haven't been able to find out much info on it yet.

    It's called the Japanese variant, I guess because they "discovered" it....

    https://search.yahoo.com/search?fr=mcafee&type=C211US1264D20151222&p=japanese+variant - https://search.yahoo.com/search?fr=mcafee&type=C211US1264D20151222&p=japanese+variant



    Posted By: Dutch Josh
    Date Posted: January 14 2021 at 11:17pm

    [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brazilian_variant[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brazilian_variant - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brazilian_variant (Brazilian variant or B.1.1.248 lineage) ; This variant of of SARS-CoV-2 has 12 mutations in its spike protein, including N501Y and E484K


    [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant (SA variant or 20C/501Y.V2B.1.351 lineage https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant#cite_note-1" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none; - [ ); Two mutations found in 501.V2, E484K and K417N, are not found in  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variant_of_Concern_202012/01" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;" title="Variant of Concern 202012/01 - Variant of Concern 202012/01 . Also, 501.V2 does not have the 69-70del mutation found in the other variant. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant#cite_note-hancock-15" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none; - [15] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant#cite_note-caprisa-8" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none; - [8]

    DJ-Also a look at UK variant (or lineage B.1.1.7 or 20B/501Y.V1) [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variant_of_Concern_202012/01[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variant_of_Concern_202012/01 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variant_of_Concern_202012/01 ; The VOC-202012/01 variant is defined by 23 mutations: 13 non-synonymous mutations, 4 deletions, and 6  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synonymous_substitution" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;" title="Synonymous substitution - synonymous mutations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variant_of_Concern_202012/01#cite_note-FOOTNOTEChand_et_al.5-20" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none; - [18]  (i.e., there are 17 mutations that change proteins and six that do not https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variant_of_Concern_202012/01#cite_note-peacock-2" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none; - [2] ).

    -

    It is correlated with a significant increase in the rate of COVID-19 infections in the United Kingdom; this increase is thought to be at least partly because of change  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asparagine" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;" title="Asparagine - N 501 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyrosine" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;" title="Tyrosine - Y  (see  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutation#Nomenclature" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;" title="Mutation - nomenclature for mutations ) inside the  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peplomer" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;" title="Peplomer - spike glycoprotein 's  https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Receptor-binding_domain&action=edit&redlink=1" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(165, 88, 88); background: none rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;" title="Receptor-binding domain (page does not exist) - receptor-binding domain , which binds  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angiotensin-converting_enzyme_2" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;" title="Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 - ACE2  in human cells. The variant is also notable for the higher number of mutations it contains compared to the recorded trend to date. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variant_of_Concern_202012/01#cite_note-peacock-2" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none; - [2]


    -All three variants have a change at position 501 (N to Y). The Brazil and SA variant share also the change at position 484 (E to K). The SA variant also has a change at position 417 (K to N) . Problem with these changes is that it is at places that connects the virus to human (ACE-2-all over the body) receptors. The more changes there the more infectious the virus seems to be getting (in these variants-most mutations make the virus weaker, changes are at random, mistakes in reproduction).

    [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutation#Nomenclature[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutation#Nomenclature - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutation#Nomenclature  

    -There are several other variants (Nigeria, Argentina, US (2x), Malaysia but they may not be spreading this fast-yet. [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2  




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    We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
    ~Albert Einstein


    Posted By: AndyPOW
    Date Posted: January 16 2021 at 1:47pm

    This seemed noteworthy. Does anybody besides me find it "interesting" that the "experts" said the rate of mutation was slow, yet we have many variants with the same mutation arising at the same time around the world in all kinds of climates.? This is easy to ascertain by looking at daily case rates for different countries on Worldometer. What are the odds of of this? 


    New coronavirus variants could cause more reinfections, require updated vaccines


    Source:  https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/new-coronavirus-variants-could-cause-more-reinfections-require-updated-vaccines" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 13px; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(35, 121, 181); text-decoration: none; - https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021...dated-vaccines


    New coronavirus variants could cause more reinfections, require updated vaccines
    By Kai KupferschmidtJan. 15, 2021 , 4:55 PM

    Science’s COVID-19 reporting is supported by the Pulitzer Center and the Heising-Simons Foundation.

    When the number of COVID-19 cases began to rise again in Manaus, Brazil, in December 2020, Nuno Faria was stunned. The virologist at Imperial College London and associate professor at the University of Oxford had just co-authored a paper in Science estimating that three-quarters of the city’s inhabitants had already been infected with SARS-CoV-2, the pandemic coronavirus—more than enough, it seemed, for herd immunity to develop. The virus should be done with Manaus. Yet hospitals were filling up again. “It was hard to reconcile these two things,” Faria says. He started to hunt for samples he could sequence to find out whether changes in the virus could explain the resurgence.

    On 12 January, Faria and his colleagues posted their initial conclusions on the website virological.org. Thirteen of 31 samples collected in mid-December in Manaus turned out to be part of a new viral lineage they called P.1. Much more research is needed, but they say one possibility is that in some people, P.1 eludes the human immune response triggered by the lineage that ravaged the city earlier in 2020...


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    "Every thing looks great, until you think." Dr. Al Bartlett


    Posted By: KiwiMum
    Date Posted: January 16 2021 at 2:24pm

    Originally posted by AndyPOW AndyPOW wrote:

    This seemed noteworthy. Does anybody besides me find it "interesting" that the "experts" said the rate of mutation was slow, yet we have many variants with the same mutation arising at the same time around the world in all kinds of climates.? This is easy to ascertain by looking at daily case rates for different countries on Worldometer. What are the odds of of this? 


    New coronavirus variants could cause more reinfections, require updated vaccines


    Source: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/new-coronavirus-variants-could-cause-more-reinfections-require-updated-vaccines" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 13px; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(35, 121, 181); text-decoration: none; - https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021...dated-vaccines


    New coronavirus variants could cause more reinfections, require updated vaccines
    By Kai KupferschmidtJan. 15, 2021 , 4:55 PM

    Science’s COVID-19 reporting is supported by the Pulitzer Center and the Heising-Simons Foundation.

    When the number of COVID-19 cases began to rise again in Manaus, Brazil, in December 2020, Nuno Faria was stunned. The virologist at Imperial College London and associate professor at the University of Oxford had just co-authored a paper in Science estimating that three-quarters of the city’s inhabitants had already been infected with SARS-CoV-2, the pandemic coronavirus—more than enough, it seemed, for herd immunity to develop. The virus should be done with Manaus. Yet hospitals were filling up again. “It was hard to reconcile these two things,” Faria says. He started to hunt for samples he could sequence to find out whether changes in the virus could explain the resurgence.

    On 12 January, Faria and his colleagues posted their initial conclusions on the website virological.org. Thirteen of 31 samples collected in mid-December in Manaus turned out to be part of a new viral lineage they called P.1. Much more research is needed, but they say one possibility is that in some people, P.1 eludes the human immune response triggered by the lineage that ravaged the city earlier in 2020...


    I don't know much about how or why viruses mutate but looking at the probability of it all it makes sense. If you think of each person with Covid as being a petri dish in a lab, then with 80 million petri dishes then mutations are far more likely than with 1 million. As far as the mutations all being similiar but occurring sponateously around the world, well perhaps that is also to be expected. Maybe the area of weakness in the virus is in the spike proteins (which is where all these mutations are happening) and this is the part that is most likely to mutate. 

    To put it in terms of human mutating to adapt to modern life, I would say it would be very unlikely that we would suddenly grow a second head but it would be more likely that we would grow a third arm (needed because we are all so busy multitasking) or additional fingers.

    As you can see, I'm not a scientist  



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    Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.


    Posted By: Technophobe
    Date Posted: January 16 2021 at 4:34pm

    Slightly overstated, KiwiMum........................................  but not wrong.



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    How do you tell if a politician is lying?
    His lips or pen are moving.


    Posted By: KiwiMum
    Date Posted: January 16 2021 at 10:00pm

    Originally posted by Technophobe Technophobe wrote:

    Slightly overstated, KiwiMum........................................  but not wrong.

    Well as I said, I'm no scientist.      



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    Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.


    Posted By: Dutch Josh
    Date Posted: January 16 2021 at 10:38pm

    If there has been a robbery it is more likely the robber will change his coat then plastic surgery or paint his hair...In a virus some mutations may be much easier (the 501 segment, not having segment 69/70) then others...

    [url]http://www.recombinomics.com/viral_evolution.html[/url] or http://www.recombinomics.com/viral_evolution.html - http://www.recombinomics.com/viral_evolution.html is also "interesting" two "viral strings"mix and the outcome can be a third string from two parts of the older string. Also an existing virus can "link" part of an other viral "string"...and by accident even survive, become a major risk...

    As KiwiMum did say-there is a difference between 1 petri-dish and 80 million petri-dishes. Mutations happen when the virus reproduces itself (in a host cell-they need outside "help" that is why virusses are on the border of living things..) The more often it reproduces the more mutations are likely...

    With a "super computer" you can calculate the "risk for mutation" of every of the over 32,000 "segments" of the Covid19 (RNA) virus...In that way discover what kind of mutations are more likely. Of course this virus has had over 15,000 mutations so far already-in itself a data base for what to expect. 

    If you "confront"the findings of possible mutations with the "terrain" virus hosts-one can make models for how a pandemic spreads. A theoritical framework searching for the worst, best, most likely way a pandemic will develop. 

    This question is important. The theory is the more wider a virus get spread, the "older" the virus gets, the less virulent a virus becomes. This corona-virus so far ignores that idea...

    A "herd immunity strategy" may have been okay if the virus did evolve towards a cold-virus during 2020. But it did not do so...



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    We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
    ~Albert Einstein


    Posted By: carbon20
    Date Posted: January 17 2021 at 1:07am

    You just got to love the little beasties,so simple do deadly,

    You have to add international travel into the equation......

    That means mixing at airport hubs......

    Thoses Emirates hubs were a Petri dish before covid,I was so glad when the non-stop flights came in from here to UK,



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    Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

    Marcus Aurelius


    Posted By: KiwiMum
    Date Posted: January 17 2021 at 12:12pm

    Originally posted by carbon20 carbon20 wrote:

    You just got to love the little beasties,so simple do deadly,

    You have to add international travel into the equation......

    That means mixing at airport hubs......

    Thoses Emirates hubs were a Petri dish before covid,I was so glad when the non-stop flights came in from here to UK,

    But I always love being at Dubai airport. I like the fact that they clean the toilet straight after you've used it. My flight always lands at one terminal and the next one leaves at another gate at the far end of the airport. My last time through there it took me 45 minutes to walk to my new gate and I'm a fast walker and very fit. I must have walked past 10,000 people from all over the world - a perfect germ storm. Then I normally fly to Schipol in Amsterdam which is the largest airport in Europe and do the same thing - walk to the other end for my next regional flight.



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    Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.


    Posted By: carbon20
    Date Posted: January 17 2021 at 1:33pm

    I've had to get on train at Dubai(The world is in Dubai) to get my next flight( wait over 5 hours) ,to London,then on The tube to get train to Birmingham can you imagine  the people I contact with.....

    And they all in transit........

    millions of permutations.....

    for any virus........

    Remember......the bad one is yet to come or is it here now....only we in denial.....?





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    Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

    Marcus Aurelius


    Posted By: AI
    Date Posted: January 18 2021 at 7:29am

    20C-US



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    “Facts don't care about your feelings.”
    ― Ben Shapiro


    Posted By: Dutch Josh
    Date Posted: January 20 2021 at 3:55am

    China-Bejing two-UK variant cases; [url]https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202101/1213387.shtml[/url] or https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202101/1213387.shtml - https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202101/1213387.shtml ; The COVID-19 strain found in two cases from Beijing's Daxing district is the same as the variant initially found in the UK, suggesting it was imported from an overseas source: Beijing authorities

    DJ; Global Times is very close to CCP/China Government, the very short article does NOT mention a DIRECT travel link-so it is very likely the UK variant may be spreading in Bejing(area). See also [url]https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210120-partial-lockdown-in-beijing-as-uk-virus-variant-detected[/url] or https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210120-partial-lockdown-in-beijing-as-uk-virus-variant-detected - https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210120-partial-lockdown-in-beijing-as-uk-virus-variant-detected ; 1.6 million residents were banned from leaving Beijing on Wednesday as two Covid-19 cases linked to a new UK virus variant were found in the Chinese capital.

    -

    With the Lunar New Year Holiday looming, officials had been keen to avoid an outbreak in Beijing, the heart of political power. But a handful of cases have been detected in the capital in recent days, with six more reported Wednesday in southern Daxing district.

    -

    The cases had "no genetic correlation with previously reported local cases and imported cases in Beijing", the head of the Beijing health authority Pang Xinghuo told reporters, but are "considered to be variants of the new coronavirus discovered in the UK."

    All 1.6 million residents of Daxing are barred from leaving Beijing unless they have received special permission from the authorities and tested negative for Covid-19 in the past three days, the district said. Residents of five neighbourhoods, where the recent cases were detected, were ordered to remain indoors. Meetings of 50 or more people in the district have been banned, while "weddings should be postponed and funerals simplified," the Daxing government said. It also ordered all kindergarten, primary and secondary students in the district to study at home. Daxing includes one of the city's two international airports.

    -South Africa [url]https://www.nicd.ac.za/can-i-be-re-infected-with-the-new-variant-if-ive-had-covid-19/[/url] or https://www.nicd.ac.za/can-i-be-re-infected-with-the-new-variant-if-ive-had-covid-19/ - https://www.nicd.ac.za/can-i-be-re-infected-with-the-new-variant-if-ive-had-covid-19/ ; 

    People who have recovered from SARS-CoV-2 infection are usually protected from being infected a second time (called re-infection). This is because they develop neutralizing antibodies that remain in their blood for at least 5-6 months, maybe longer. These antibodies bind to specific parts of the spike protein that have mutated in the new variant (K417N and E484K). We now know that these mutations have allowed the virus to become resistant to antibody neutralization.

    The blood samples from half the people we tested showed that all neutralizing activity was lost. This suggests that they may no longer be protected from re-infection. In the other half, the levels of antibodies were reduced and so the risk of re-infection is not known. It is therefore important that people who have previously had COVID-19 continue to adhere to public health measures. Protecting ourselves through masks, regular washing or sanitising of hands, cleaning of surfaces, and social distancing remain the best defense against all SARS-CoV-2 viruses, including the new lineage.

    DJ-Yes-you can get reinfected from the SA variant after earlier "old variant" infection...it does not say vaccines become much less effective...still bad news...

    Israel UK variant [url]https://www.debka.com/as-covid-runs-out-of-control-israels-lockdown-prolonged-to-jan-31/[/url] or https://www.debka.com/as-covid-runs-out-of-control-israels-lockdown-prolonged-to-jan-31/ - https://www.debka.com/as-covid-runs-out-of-control-israels-lockdown-prolonged-to-jan-31/ ; 

    Concerns are now focusing on two large groups. The ultra-religious communities, which accounted for a disproportionate 40pc of the new cases recorded on Monday. Health officials report that the UK variant of the covid virus is already rife in most parts of the country, but especially among the ultra-religious groups. While many of them abide by health guidelines, some of their rabbis insist on uninterrupted Torah studies at their schools and seminaries. Police, who find closing down these schools an impossible task, forcibly broke up a crowded wedding party in Bnei Brak on Tuesday.

    The second group came into unexpected fore when 10 pregnant women contracted coronavirus and were admitted to hospital in serious condition. They were not vaccinated against the virus, because their youth placed them low on the priority chart. And the vaccine manufacturers had never included pregnant women in their trials. The Health Ministry reacted by urging all women who were pregnant or lactating to nonetheless get themselves immunized without delay, since the vaccine seemed to be comparatively harmless compared with the deadly virus.

    -DJ-Over 60 countries did report the UK variant, 27 countries reported the SA variant-most likely these and the B (Brazil) variant are much wider spread-not that easy to detect. On the German variant ; [url]https://www.euronews.com/2021/01/20/coronavirus-germany-tightens-restrictions-and-netherlands-mulls-curfew-over-variants-fears[/url] or https://www.euronews.com/2021/01/20/coronavirus-germany-tightens-restrictions-and-netherlands-mulls-curfew-over-variants-fears - https://www.euronews.com/2021/01/20/coronavirus-germany-tightens-restrictions-and-netherlands-mulls-curfew-over-variants-fears ("no news yet")

    It is very likely the B-variant is spreading in Portugal, SA variants are found often in Switzerland-the UK variant must be all over the globe. The US may also face a mix of variants [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2 has also the CAL-20C from the US CAL.20C https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#cite_note-:28-44" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none; - [42]  was first observed by researchers at  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cedars-Sinai_Medical_Center" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;" title="Cedars-Sinai Medical Center - Cedars-Sinai Medical Center  in July 2020 in one of 1,230 virus samples collected in Los Angeles County. The variant, which contains mutation L452R, was not detected again in Southern California until October 2020. In November 2020, the CAL.20C variant accounted for 36 percent of samples collected at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, and by January 2021, the CAL.20C variant accounted for 50 percent of samples. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#cite_note-New_York_Times-45" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none; - [43]

    DJ-there was mention of yet another US variant, besides that there is also believed A (Argentine) and N (Nigeria) variants...the explosion of cases is followed by an explosion of variants. Vaccination and mixing of variants will create new variants...NPI helps to keep down viral spread. Vaccines-after a few weeks-may offer some protection. But it is reasonable to expect vaccines will not protect against all the variants 95%...We have to stop viral spread by "freezing of mobility"...Ivermectin may be able to be usefull as treatment /prevention in many cases (it looks like that at least..)




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    We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
    ~Albert Einstein


    Posted By: cobber
    Date Posted: January 20 2021 at 6:36am

    I call BS. Till I see solid facts. This story came out of Brazil, literally a third world country.

    Viruses are more likely to evolve and become less virulent over time. (not always)


    Maybe they need to drum up vaccine sales?  


    I'll treat this with an ounce of skepticism.


    Thanks for posting.

     



    Posted By: Dutch Josh
    Date Posted: January 20 2021 at 7:35am

    cobber, you may have a point (eventhough some of the studies on limited effectivity are also "close to science"-reinfections being reported in South Africa/Suid Afrika and Brazil, would also explain high Israel numbers..) From Nature;

    [url]https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03207-w?utm_medium=affiliate&utm_source=commission_junction&utm_campaign=3_nsn6445_deeplink_PID7988268&utm_content=deeplink[/url],

    or https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03207-w?utm_medium=affiliate&utm_source=commission_junction&utm_campaign=3_nsn6445_deeplink_PID7988268&utm_content=deeplink - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03207-w?utm_medium=affiliate&utm_source=commission_junction&utm_campaign=3_nsn6445_deeplink_PID7988268&utm_content=deeplink ;Antibody levels decrease with time, but the nature and quality of the memory B cells that would be called upon to produce antibodies upon re-infection has not been examined. Here we report on the humoral memory response in a cohort of 87 individuals assessed at 1.3 and 6.2 months after infection. We find that IgM, and IgG anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike protein receptor binding domain (RBD) antibody titres decrease significantly with IgA being less affected. Concurrently, neutralizing activity in plasma decreases by fivefold in pseudotype virus assays. In contrast, the number of RBD-specific memory B cells is unchanged. Memory B cells display clonal turnover after 6.2 months, and the antibodies they express have greater somatic hypermutation, increased potency and resistance to RBD mutations, indicative of continued evolution of the humoral response. Analysis of intestinal biopsies obtained from asymptomatic individuals 4 months after the onset of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19), using immunofluorescence, or polymerase chain reaction, revealed persistence of SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acids and immunoreactivity in the small bowel of 7 out of 14 volunteers. We conclude that the memory B cell response to SARS-CoV-2 evolves between 1.3 and 6.2 months after infection in a manner that is consistent with antigen persistence.

    DJ-B cell immunity would still be there after 6 months-also against variants...they "adjust"to virus mutations this study finds...(So "re-infections" are not re-infections in the sense that a first infection did not start B-cell immunity ???)



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    We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
    ~Albert Einstein


    Posted By: Technophobe
    Date Posted: January 20 2021 at 7:37am

    Viruses are likely to evolve to be less deadly over time.  This is the standard path.  But it is not guaranteed and is accompanied by the words: "Viruses are likely to evolve to be more contagious over time."

    Epidemiologists will also tell you that to threaten the existance of a species, a disease has to be carried by another species.  To date mink and ferrets (musterlids) flying foxes (bats) cats, snow leopards, puma, lions and tigers (cats) domestic dogs (canines) hamsters (rodents) pangolin (manidae) and several other species of primates (like us) have all tested positive for the virus.  That is a huge number of species - the groups, which I listed in brackets, contain many species each (except manidae).



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    How do you tell if a politician is lying?
    His lips or pen are moving.


    Posted By: Dutch Josh
    Date Posted: January 23 2021 at 7:32am

    SA variant;

    [url]https://www.brusselstimes.com/news/belgium-all-news/150913/south-african-variant-belgiums-first-outbreak-in-ostend/[/url] or https://www.brusselstimes.com/news/belgium-all-news/150913/south-african-variant-belgiums-first-outbreak-in-ostend/ - https://www.brusselstimes.com/news/belgium-all-news/150913/south-african-variant-belgiums-first-outbreak-in-ostend/ ;

    Belgium has declared its first major outbreak of the South African variant of the virus that causes Covid-19, with the infection of 15 people in Ostend.

    One case of the variant was detected earlier in the week in the coast city. Today, another 14 were discovered in the geriatrics department of the Sint-Jan hospital. Another single sample was found in a care home.

    We really have to keep the South African variant out,” said virologist Marc Van Ranst earlier in the week. At the time, that seemed feasible: only eight samples had been found in the whole country.

    But the discovery of a larger outbreak raises new fears. Like its British counterpart, this variant is known to be more infectious that the ordinary virus, and so is more likely to spread quickly.

    DJ Also Switzerland reported SA variant cases-a few weeks ago [url]https://www.thelocal.ch/20210104/mutated-coronavirus-strain-found-in-several-regions-of-switzerland[/url] or https://www.thelocal.ch/20210104/mutated-coronavirus-strain-found-in-several-regions-of-switzerland - https://www.thelocal.ch/20210104/mutated-coronavirus-strain-found-in-several-regions-of-switzerland ; 

    The UK variant means closing of a Berlin hospital; [url]https://www.world-today-news.com/infection-with-b-1-1-7-cannot-be-explained-by-travel/[/url] or https://www.world-today-news.com/infection-with-b-1-1-7-cannot-be-explained-by-travel/ - https://www.world-today-news.com/infection-with-b-1-1-7-cannot-be-explained-by-travel/ ; The dreaded British corona mutation seems to be spreading in a Berlin hospital. On Wednesday, the clinic reported four infected patients and two nurses in whom the SARS-CoV2 variant of type B.1.1.7 was detected. On Thursday, the Vivantes Humboldt Clinic said that the mutation had been found in eleven people on one ward. In none of the cases could the infection be explained by a trip. According to the Robert Koch Institute, there is also further evidence outside of the clinic in Berlin. Has the mutation already spread there unnoticed?

    DJ-Yes it is spreading all over the globe-only limited reporting on the B (Brazil) variant in Europe.

    Cases of variant B.1.1.7 were also discovered in other federal states, as reported by the Robert Koch Institute. According to a spokeswoman, 28 cases were reported from seven federal states (as of January 21, 12 a.m.). Because the virus samples are now being examined more closely in many places, these numbers could also increase significantly in the near future.



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    We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
    ~Albert Einstein


    Posted By: Dutch Josh
    Date Posted: February 13 2021 at 7:43am

    [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/malaysia-2019-ncov/907056-reports-of-finding-sars-cov-2-variant-in-sarawak[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/malaysia-2019-ncov/907056-reports-of-finding-sars-cov-2-variant-in-sarawak - https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/malaysia-2019-ncov/907056-reports-of-finding-sars-cov-2-variant-in-sarawak ; From Facebook page of Datuk Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah is the Director General of Health Malaysia and Senior Consultant in Breast, Endocrine & General Surgery:

    Feedback from Virology Unit, Medical Research Institute, MOH
    Based on reports received from UNIMAS, there are two variants of SARS-CoV-2 detected which are B. 1.160.3 and B. 1.160.
    Here is additional information from the IMR regarding the report based on studies from GISAID data.
    1) Variant B. 1.160.3 has been rename to B. 1.470. This variant was dominated by variants from Indonesia since April 2020 with a prevalent of 67.6 % (76/108) which is from 108 numbers of full genome sequences this variant registered in GISAID, 76 is from Indonesia. Other countries who also reported this variant are Singapore (10.2 %; 11/108), Japan (12.0, 13/108) and minorities in Taiwan and Hong Kong. This variant has a D614G mutation which is now commonly found in nearly majority of the SARS-CoV-2. variants.
    2) Variant B. 1.160 was commonly found variants in Europah countries since July 2020 starting from France (11.2 %) and now dominated by Denmark (28.0 %), Switzerland (15.4 %). and UK (17.2 %). This variant has a mutation of D614G and S477N spikes.
    But the predominant variant in the UK at this time is B1. 1.7 variant where almost 89.9 % of the distribution of this variant in the world is restless in the UK.
    At the moment there is no evidence that shows that variant B. 1.160 / B. These 1.470 from Sarawak have higher levels of infection or virulence. From a genomic sequencing study on the Peninsula, similar strains are yet to be found.
    So far, still can't be assured of the origin of the SARS-CoV2 variant in Sarawak although it's likely to come from Indonesia that has registered 67.7 % similar strain since April last year.

     [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#Notable_mutations[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#Notable_mutations - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#Notable_mutations ; D614G is a mutation that affects the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2. The frequency of this mutation in the viral population has increased during the pandemic. G ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glycine" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;" title="Glycine - glycine ) has replaced D ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aspartic_acid" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;" title="Aspartic acid - aspartic acid ) in many countries, especially in Europe though more slowly in China and the rest of East Asia, supporting the hypothesis that G increases the transmission rate, which is consistent with higher viral titers and infectivity in vitro.

    The S477N mutation is in [url]https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202012.0710/v1[/url] or https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202012.0710/v1 - https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202012.0710/v1 ; The structural and stability implications of D614G, N501Y, and S477N mutations were evaluated. The binding affinity between mutated RBD and human ACE2 protein was also studied. The D614G mutation may have originated in Germany, Europe based on the date of the first sample collection report. It is now widely circulated all over the world with most occurrences in North America. The mutations N501Y and S477N may have originated from Oceania based on the date of the first sample collection report and also have the highest occurrences in Oceania. Based on the computational analysis of mutational effects, the D614G, N501Y, and S477N mutations decreased stability and were tolerated. For disease propensity prediction, N501Y was more prone to disease compared to D614G, while S477N was not prone to disease. The mutation of D to G at position 614 and S to N at position 477 for secondary structure prediction shows no changes in secondary structure while remaining in the coil region, whereas the mutation of N to Y at position 501 changes from coil structure to extended strand. N501Y mutation has a higher affinity to human ACE2 protein compared to D614G and S477N based on a docking study. D614G spike mutation was identified to exist between the two hosts based on a comparison of SARS-CoV-2 derived between the mink and human. Further research is needed on the link between the mink mutation N501T and the mutation N501Y in humans, which has evolved as a separate variant.

    DJ-This Indonesian variant may be less problematic then the SA variant with  three mutations in the  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2#Structural_biology" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;" title="Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 - receptor-binding domain  (RBD) in the  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peplomer" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;" title="Peplomer - spike glycoprotein  of the virus:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#N501Y" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; - N501Y , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#cite_note-nytimes-37" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none; - [34] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#cite_note-40" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none; - [37]  K417N, and  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#E484K" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; - E484K .    Still new variants are a main concern.



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    We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
    ~Albert Einstein


    Posted By: Dutch Josh
    Date Posted: February 16 2021 at 12:49pm

    Bad news; [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/907387-exclusive-two-variants-have-merged-into-heavily-mutated-coronavirus[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/907387-exclusive-two-variants-have-merged-into-heavily-mutated-coronavirus - https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/907387-exclusive-two-variants-have-merged-into-heavily-mutated-coronavirus ; Exclusive: Two variants have merged into heavily mutated coronavirus
    The UK and California variants of coronavirus appear to have combined into a heavily mutated hybrid, sparking concern that we may be entering a new phase of the covid-19 pandemic
    Health 16 February 2021
    By Graham Lawton

    Two variants of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus that causes covid-19 have combined their genomes to form a heavily mutated hybrid version of the virus. The “recombination” event was discovered in a virus sample in California, provoking warnings that we may be poised to enter a new phase of the pandemic.

    The hybrid virus is the result of recombination of the highly transmissible B.1.1.7 variant discovered in the UK and the B.1.429 variant that originated in California and which may be responsible for a recent wave of cases in Los Angeles because it carries a mutation making it resistant to some antibodies.

    The recombinant was discovered by Bette Korber at the Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico, who told a meeting organised by the New York Academy of Sciences on 2 February that she had seen “pretty clear” evidence of it in her database of US viral genomes.

    If confirmed, the recombinant would be the first to be detected in this pandemic. In December and January, two research groups independently reported that they hadn’t seen any evidence of recombination, even though it has long been expected as it is common in coronaviruses.

    Unlike regular mutation, where changes accumulate one at a time, which is how variants such as B.1.1.7 arose, recombination can bring together multiple mutations in one go. Most of the time, these don’t confer any advantage to the virus, but occasionally they do.

    Recombination can be of major evolutionary importance, according to François Balloux at University College London. It is considered by many to be how SARS-CoV-2 originated.

    Recombination could lead to the emergence of new and even more dangerous variants, although it isn’t yet clear how much of a threat this first recombination event might pose.

    Korber has only seen a single recombinant genome among thousands of sequences and it isn’t clear whether the virus is being transmitted from person to person or is just a one-off...

    DJ-Most recombinations produce-most likely-virusses with less chance of survival/becoming a major problem. But given the number of infections (hundreds of millions) the risks for "a monster mutation" do increase...

    -Another study [url]https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.14.422555v4.full.pdf[/url] or  https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.14.422555v4.full.pdf - https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.14.422555v4.full.pdf



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    We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
    ~Albert Einstein


    Posted By: roni3470
    Date Posted: February 16 2021 at 6:44pm

    Josh, this recombination doesn't necessarily mean more deadly though, correct?  Outside of this article, what are your thoughts on this??



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    NOW is the Season to Know

    that Everything you Do

    is Sacred


    Posted By: carbon20
    Date Posted: February 16 2021 at 8:52pm

    Originally posted by roni3470 roni3470 wrote:

    Josh, this recombination doesn't necessarily mean more deadly though, correct?  Outside of this article, what are your thoughts on this??

    you are correct,

    Recombination ,

    Means to me ,it can either recombine to be less deadly but more transmissible,or recombine to be harmless,

    Or it can go the other way and become more deadly and more transmissible.....

    With the amount of variants. Out there it's anyone's guess....

    Looking especially at the middle east , Indonesian,

     typically countries that have been slow to implement lockdowns etc,

    these places are a viruses playground

    Who knows what is around the corner of....

    Ebola,Covid reasortment.....now we are talking about slate wiper stuff,doubt if that could happen, never say never....

     there is a Airborne ebola virus that is not harmful as far as I'm aware....all that could change in a heartbeat.....

    Take care all 😷😉




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    Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

    Marcus Aurelius


    Posted By: carbon20
    Date Posted: February 16 2021 at 9:06pm

    The Conversation CA: How the coronavirus mutates and what this means for the future of COVID-19.

    https://theconversation.com/how-the-coronavirus-mutates-and-what-this-means-for-the-future-of-covid-19-154499 - https://theconversation.com/how-the-coronavirus-mutates-and-what-this-means-for-the-future-of-covid-19-154499



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    Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

    Marcus Aurelius


    Posted By: Dutch Josh
    Date Posted: February 16 2021 at 10:12pm

    roni3470 DJ-my thoughts on this recombination of corona variants is that the "room" for Covid19 "to do the extreme" is there.  An extra reason to increase surveilance, stop the spread (at almost all costs), increase testing/sequencing and increase the urgency with wich we increase all the earlier measures...(testing, sequencing etc).

    I notice a tendency to take this virus less serious in politics/"press"...at the same time more variants are developing. This recombination news may indicate we can expect much more variants...

    Just like with mutations recombinations most of the time make a virus weaker. Both mutations and recombinations are mistakes in reproduction-ad random. A virus has no "brain or plan" and is on the edge of life-needs a host for reproduction. 

    I do not know how real the risk is of covid RNA mixing up with Ebola RNA if a person gets infected with both virusses. And there most likely are other bad diseases able to do "bad things" possibly able to recombine with Covid19. 

    "An unfriendly guest is no longer taking over a room he is taking over the house"....



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    We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
    ~Albert Einstein


    Posted By: carbon20
    Date Posted: February 17 2021 at 4:04am

    ABC News: New COVID variant found in UK may reduce effectiveness of vaccines, government says.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-02-17/new-coronavirus-variant-found-in-the-united-kingdom/13162548 - https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-02-17/new-coronavirus-variant-found-in-the-united-kingdom/13162548



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    Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

    Marcus Aurelius


    Posted By: Dutch Josh
    Date Posted: February 17 2021 at 4:12am

    [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=501.V2_variant&action=history[/url] or  https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=501.V2_variant&action=history - https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=501.V2_variant&action=history DJ-The SA variant page on wikipedia keeps changing...it may be hard to get good SA variant numbers...From Dutch news WHO UK variant in 94 countries, SA variant in 46 countries and B variants (P1 and P2) in 21 countries...



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    We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
    ~Albert Einstein


    Posted By: carbon20
    Date Posted: February 17 2021 at 4:37am

    Sorry double post 

    Take care all 😷😉



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    Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

    Marcus Aurelius


    Posted By: ksc
    Date Posted: February 18 2021 at 2:33am

    New coronavirus variant discovered in Finland – media

    Read more on UNIAN:  https://www.unian.info/world/covid-19-new-coronavirus-variant-discovered-in-finland-11325803.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=twitter_site" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-color: rgb(235, 235, 235); color: rgb(31, 31, 38); text-decoration: none; cursor: pointer; border: none; outline: none; font-family: Lato; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; - https://www.unian.info/world/covid-19-new-coronavirus-variant-discovered-in-finland-11325803.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=twitter_site  

    Researchers in southern Finland have discovered a new, "unique" variant of the coronavirus.

    Helsinki-based Vita Laboratories said the variant, dubbed Fin-796H, displayed some mutations previously discovered in the British and South African variants of the virus but in a combination it called "unique,"  https://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/new_coronavirus_variant_discovered_in_finland/11796958" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(31, 31, 38); text-decoration: none; cursor: pointer; border: none; outline: none; - Yle reported .

    "The variant was discovered in a patient last week, so details about the infectivity and potential resistance of this strain to vaccines are not yet known," said Vita Laboratories' researcher Taru Meri.

    It is unlikely that the variant emerged in Finland due to relatively low rates of coronavirus infection in the country, Meri said.

    Read alsoNew COVID variant with potentially worrying mutations found in UK – media https://www.unian.info/world/covid-19-new-variant-with-potentially-worrying-mutations-found-in-uk-11322875.html?utm_source=unian&utm_medium=related_news&utm_campaign=related_news_in_post" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(31, 31, 38); text-decoration: none; cursor: pointer; border: none; outline: none;"> Ilkka Julkunen, Professor of Virology at the University of Turku, told Yle that based on the information available, the emergence of the variant was not a major concern.

    "I would not be hugely worried yet, because we do not have clear information that this new strain would be more easily transmitted or that it would affect the immune protection brought about by already having had the virus or having received a vaccination," he said.

    Petri Auvinen, research director of the University of Helsinki's Institute of Biotechnology, said finding new variants of the coronavirus was simply "a matter of time."

    "However, the newly-discovered variant differs from expectations in that it does not genetically resemble any other known variant," he said.

    Vita Laboratories considers the discovery of the new variant significant as it may not show up in PCR tests for coronavirus that search for particular genetic sequences in the virus' RNA.

    If the PCR test is only able to identify specific parts of that code, then a mutated virus may escape detection. Therefore, PCR tests often search for at least two different sections.

    "The tests' inability to recognise it, meaning those mutations have occurred in the section on which the PCR test is based, is the most important information about this variant at the moment," clinical researcher Taru Meri said.


    Read more on UNIAN:  https://www.unian.info/world/covid-19-new-coronavirus-variant-discovered-in-finland-11325803.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=twitter_site" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-color: rgb(235, 235, 235); color: rgb(31, 31, 38); text-decoration: none; cursor: pointer; border: none; outline: none; font-family: Lato; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; - https://www.unian.info/world/covid-19-new-coronavirus-variant-discovered-in-finland-11325803.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=twitter_site



    Posted By: EdwinSm,
    Date Posted: February 18 2021 at 3:24am

    That article seems to have been taken word for word from the Finnish state owned tv news channel https://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/new_coronavirus_variant_discovered_in_finland/11796958" rel="noopener noreferrer - https://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/new_coronavirus_variant_discovered_in_finland/11796958



    Posted By: Dutch Josh
    Date Posted: February 18 2021 at 3:33am

    [url]https://pledgetimes.com/coronavirus-a-new-variant-of-coronavirus-was-found-in-finland-which-is-less-visible-in-the-pcr-test-than-before/[/url] or https://pledgetimes.com/coronavirus-a-new-variant-of-coronavirus-was-found-in-finland-which-is-less-visible-in-the-pcr-test-than-before/ - https://pledgetimes.com/coronavirus-a-new-variant-of-coronavirus-was-found-in-finland-which-is-less-visible-in-the-pcr-test-than-before/ ; The variant is named Fin-796H and has features that have also been observed in viral variants in Britain and South Africa, Vita Laboratories said in a statement.

    -

    According to Vita laboratories, the new variant does not find, for example, the N501Y mutation, which combines variants from Britain, South Africa and Brazil, and which is associated with more sensitive infectivity.

    Next the variant is subjected to whole-genome sequencing, which allows analysis of the changes. The variant can then be compared to other known variant sequences.

    -[url]https://vita.fi/uutiset/suomesta-loytynyt-taysin-uusi-koronavirusvariantti-mahdollisesti-vaikea-havaita-testeilla/[/url] or https://vita.fi/uutiset/suomesta-loytynyt-taysin-uusi-koronavirusvariantti-mahdollisesti-vaikea-havaita-testeilla/ - https://vita.fi/uutiset/suomesta-loytynyt-taysin-uusi-koronavirusvariantti-mahdollisesti-vaikea-havaita-testeilla/ ; 

    One mutation in the variant prevents reliable detection of the virus by one of the methods recommended by the WHO last spring. This was observed when analyzing a sample from a patient with variant Covid-19 infection. Fortunately, Vita and probably also other laboratories performing coron diagnosis in Finland use methods that identify at least two gene regions of the virus. Thus, the infection will not go undetected anywhere in Finland. This may not be the case in other countries, so the finding may be of great international significance, says Sakari Jokiranta , Associate Professor of Clinical Microbiology at Vita Laboratories .

    It is not yet known whether the coronary heart disease caused by the variant is abnormal. Based on the mutations observed, the infectivity of the virus may be high, as in the British variant, and at the same time, vaccines may be ineffective against it, as in the South African variant. However, evidence of the properties of the variant will only be obtained when more information is available on its prevalence and infection chains.

    - It is still too early to say how widely the new Fin-796H variant has spread and where it originally developed. It is unlikely that such a different variant would have developed in Finland, as there is very little disease here. In southern Finland, however, the variant may have spread, because at least in the PCR screening test performed in the HUS region to detect the British variant, the new variant seems to be a conventional virus, not a variant, to our knowledge. Fortunately, however, the virus itself is detected in these tests as well. There is no reason to panic, although the rapid transformation of the virus is of concern both in terms of diagnostics and vaccination efficacy, Taru Meri, a docent in microbiological immunology responsible for corona diagnostics at Vita Laboratories, reassures.

    DJ-Bad news



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    We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
    ~Albert Einstein


    Posted By: ksc
    Date Posted: February 18 2021 at 3:34am

    This site is calling it a recombination.

    Fin-796H: A new recombination of British and South Africa Variant appears in Finland

    https://www.newsbreak.com/news/2165998509825/fin-796h-a-new-recombination-of-british-and-south-africa-variant-appears-in-finland - https://www.newsbreak.com/news/2165998509825/fin-796h-a-new-recombination-of-british-and-south-africa-variant-appears-in-finland




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