DJ, When one compares two major pandemics there are lots of things to say. When the first pandemic was over a 100 years ago and the second pandemic is ungoing there are lots of unknown factors. Still the Spanish Flu did kill between 20 and 100 million people in a timespan some historians start in 1917-may have ended in 1923 (and the H1N1 becoming a "more normal" flu). On a global population of around two billion between 1 and 5% of that population died in that pandemic. To look a bit further in 2000 years of history-the Spanish Flu was "mild" a lot of other pandemics did kill much more people. It is very likely that allthough the area was restricted-therefor it was maybe not a "worldwide" pandemic both in later Roman times and 14th century Plague between 33 and 50% of the population died. Conquest of the America's may have killed up to 90% of the native nations in these continents. They died from European imported illnesses. Those diseases also were a major cause of death and suffering in most of Europe at the time. Mixing with wars did not improve the situation. So-Yes the Spanish Flu may have been the worst pandemic in recent history-on a longer time line it was a "mild pandemic". The last 2000 years may have had much more of these "mild pandemics" noticed only in chronicles as "a bad year". There was till 1750/1800 no "global view"on events-so the idea of increased mortality often was seen as a local event. People did not link these local events to realize it may have been "many local events forming a pandemic". Is this historical review important ? YES ! We may think of the Spanish Flu as a "worst case" while history may be "full"of much worse pandemics !!!! We may think we are "safe", better of with improved knowledge on treatments, medication, care...better surveilance also. But it can become arrogant self delusion ! - We discovered the basis for the Spanish Flu being the A-H1N1 variant in the 60's. The "Flu" before that-the 1890 Russian Flu may not have been a flu at all ! It may have been another Covid-Corona Viral Disease ! We do not realy know ! And basicly-most of science did not realy care...Pandemics as a major factor in history at best were something for a few historians...A Roman expedition maybe importing ebola into the Roman Empire from deep in Africa were "good stories" not a warning sign ! It would have been wise to have better pandemic surveilance for all kinds of virusses, diseases...because if we did learn something of history we should have known pandemics were a real risk ! It is often claimed massive troop movements did start and spread the Spanish Flu in 1917 or 1918. The general idea is that US soldiers did bring the virus from the US to France. Allthough there are also stories on a very similar flu showing up in Austria around that time-so it may have been a flu-virus was developing in the same direction at more locations. I believe the idea a virus developing in more or less the same direction in more locations now has been widely accepted. It may also explain why Covid-19 virus parts showed up in Europe before the major january 2020 Wuhan outbreak. The virus was "on its way" in more places.. The latter part of World War 1 did see a lot of mobilty in Europe-eventhough the frontline itself got stuck in the mud. But also in the Middle East where the Ottoman Empire was collapsing and Arab nations did fight for their own destiny (and were helped by the British with an eye on Arab oil and strategic position between the UK and British India). In the US military parades for war-bonds- did spread the virus. All in all a major war means a major challenge for production and logistics.. But the mobility in 2020 puts the mobility in 1917/1918 far far behind. Maybe we "spent less time together"today in airplanes then in those days in ships but we fly all over the planet-at least the 10% "better off" of the global population does. Virusses fly for free. The idea of "Freedom" did lose its connection with the sense of responsibility... In my idea responsibility is the other side of the freedom-coin. I do not realy know why such a large group of people do not see the relation between "freedom and responsibility", is it commercialized culture to sell products even when production is "eating up the planet"at the cost of next generations, other species ? In 2019, 2020 the idea of "freedom"was linked to an idea of unlimited mobility if you had the money to "jump around the planet". But also over shorter distances mobility did increase since 1918. A lot of people living most in urban area's going often daily tens of kilometres to and from job, school, entertainment... Of course a global population of 7,5 billion-over 4 billion in Asia-most in mega cities/urban area's with a population of over 1 million is a different picture from the 2 billion people in 1918-much more rural, self supporting, live-where-you-work situation.. - At this moment the Covid19 pandemic in official numbers claimed over 2 million deaths...excess deaths may add another 2 million worldwide-but with a high degree of uncertainty. Due to a lack of testing and reporting in many places the real impact of Covid19-for now is unclear. And to be realistic-with variants just starting to spread-we may be moving towards what was called "the second wave in the Spanish Flu". An increase of non-Covid deaths is in the excess deaths numbers; people who died from other illnesses that would have survived if this pandemic did not take all the care away from non-Covid patients. It is quite likely the Spanish Flu had 20 million deaths with "diagnosed Spanish Flu"-the excess number-worldwide-may have been closer to the 100 million. Most people were not "citizens" but "subjects" -did not have the nationality of their colonizer-just had to work for the "motherland". Apartheid was the rule allthough formal slavery did end in the latter 19th century... Inequality had a different face back then. There were more rich people but not a 0,1% claiming to "own half the planet". Healthcare was very basic. Access to that healthcare limited. Hospitals only had very limited means for diagnostics and treatment. Logistics were poor-some ambulances were cargo-bikes, most horses were "in the war" (and dying by the millions..). Even the rich had limited benefits from healthcare-simply because doctors could not do much-most of the deaths were in a few months with hospitals unable to deal with the number of cases.. Some people may have had some immunity from earlier flu-infections-flu was not new. Every year people did catch a flu virus, dead was part of life. Till 1900 life expectency for most "better of countries"was around 40. Lots of young children died from all kinds of illnesses. Due to the war there were food problems in many countries. Food production was needed for the military-the men in the war could not work on the land.. In 2020 obesity is a bigger problem-still-then starvation. The problem with this corona-virus is the at best-limited-immunity. Corona virusses do cause colds in humans-some of these corona-cold infections may provide a very limited protection against the SARS-2 Covid19 corona virus. Maybe it is telling we do not (even) know that part of the story.. Another issue is communications and restrictions. Today a lot of governments themselves give the impression they do not see this pandemic as a serious matter. Mass media do reach almost all the people, "social"media developed into a digital sewage system...with "freedom of expression" not in balance with any kind of sense of responsibility... The global population of 2020 is the best educated population we have had in history...still education is a tool easy to misuse... "Experts" often without basic education manage to catch massive following-while real experts hardly make the news. An anti intelectualism is making good communications as good as impossible...Like in climate collapse-both the message and the messager are unwelcome...There is a widespread sense of insane expectation "if we ignore the facts the facts will go away"-even to the highest (White House) level... In 1918 war-like conditions around the globe did not leave much room for "jokes or jokers". Government communications during the pandemic improved. At first in war-torn countries news on the Spanish Flu was suppressed by censorship. Therefore the flu became Spanish not American-Flu...Later on communications-at local levels-did make a difference. Mask wearing was not a (political) point of discussion-you did what was needed...A much less educated population made wiser decissions based on live experience...illness was something to fear...people you knew died...it was "next door"... Since most people did not travel much, were part of smaller community news of people dying did translate to faces of known people-not "just statistics on the unknown" . There was hardly any need for travel restrictions-most people did not travel much anyway... Also a need for social distancing was different from 2020. Of the two billion people in 1918's world most lived in smaller villages. Some more remote area's only did get infections in 1920 or later on...some more remote places even did not see a case of that flu... When you compare that part of the story with 2020 the SARS-2 virus did manage to reach almost all parts of the globe within months...Most of the cases and deaths so far are in urban area's and in age groups that were very exceptional during 1918. Back then you were "old"at 55, 60...now that is considered as "middle aged"... - Is there a point in making comparisons with the Spanish Flu and Covid 19 ? YES ! Both the Spanish Flu and Covid 19 are spread over several years. In many ways these "modern times" pandemics still share other factors. They both managed to get "all over the globe"-earlier pandemics were more regional or did see peaks in different years. The Spanish Flu had a global peak in 1918. SARS-2/Covid 19 most likely will peak in 2021. Both the Spanish Flu and SARS-2 will see a lot of deaths due to hospitals/healthcare being overrun... Since the present SARS-2/Covid19 pandemic is still ongoing we have to learn from the Spanish Flu-and the differences between 1918 and 2020/2021...NPI/social distancing, masks worked back then and will be effective now. The flu in 1918 did develop to a much milder flu-that is also expected from the Covid19-virus...but not yet there.. Vaccination in 1918 was very limited-the flu virus not understood. Today-even with much better knowledge there are still lots of questions and discussions. What is the role of small parts/is the virus "airborne"? Do young children spread (much) of the virus ? Even the kind of infections is not fully understood-often lungs get infected but since ACE-2 receptors are all over the body inflamation can also be "all over the body". Multi Inflamatory Syndrome, chronic Covid are not fully understood aspects... - A new pandemic was expected in many area's. Virologists did warn for (H5) flu types, historians did mention pandemics as part of history, terrorism experts warned for bio-warfare... This pandemic should not have been a surprise. The 1918 flu also was expected back then. If there was no World War 1 it would very likely not have become a pandemic . Both the Spanish Flu and SARS-2 are "man-made". In 1918 for military reasons news was censored, ill soldiers transported spreading the virus. In 2020 a lot of "leaders" simply were not able to realize a new pandemic did start. It did not fit in their scenario's and plans...adjusting to that new reality took to much time. Even experts failed to recognize the dangers and risks in time. "If there are no direct flights from Wuhan the virus will not reach us" ...more based on hope then science... Wishfull thinking, hoping summer will change events-still is a main risk. With variants spreading and the UK showing even strict rules may not be as effective in a short time still many countries fail to take the right-very strict-steps.. Even China is facing an increase of cases. With new rules on massive testing (cities with population<5 million able to test ALL in TWO days !!! Larger cities like Bejing, Shanghai in FIVE days-all of the population !!) China may be an example of how to deal with this pandemic. We may not like a "police state" but we may not have that much alternatives left...
------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
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