There are a number of different ways the pandemic can be measured.  The one I am looking at most often is deaths / million population, as this means that one can compare counties with different sized populations.    The below figures are for the deaths/million recorded in July 2021.  [Data taken from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ - https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ , but any transcribing errors are my own]

July 2021

    British Virgin Islands + 985

    Saint Martin              + 565

    Namibia                    + 587

    Ecuador                   + 560  includes (major, ie 40%, revision announced earlier in the month)

    Tunisia                     + 394

    Paraguay                 + 287

    Colombia                 + 274

    Seychelles              + 262

    Argentina                + 248

    Fiji                           + 240

   Suriname                  + 214

   South Africa              + 188

   Brazil                        + 177

   Botswana                + 164

   Russia                     + 160

   Trinidad and Tobago     + 159

High number of cases can lead to political unrest, such as in Tunisia where this month the President dismissed the Government over the handling of the corona crisis in the country.

Indonesia with the second highest numbers of deaths in the month, after Brazil, does not make the above list due to its large population making the ratio of deaths to population 'only' 125 / million.

One thing that saddens me this month is that I am seeing a number of countries that kept their rates low for a year suddenly see things explode.  They are small states but the British Virgin Islands, Saint Martin and Fiji are in this category.   

Although, as Josh pointed out in Scenarios, the world averages are going down, there is a depressingly large number of countries where Covid-19 is raging.   Many of those making this month's list are small island nations that would not have widespread health facilities.   For many of them the managed the first year and a half of this pandemic with very low numbers then BAM !

August 2021 Countries with over 150 deaths / million in the month

                               deaths/ million

    Martinique               + 883

    Guadeloupe            + 742

    French Polynesia    + 701

    Guadeloupe            + 492

    Georgia                   + 402

    Martinique              + 352

    Sint Maarten           + 391

    Aruba                     + 336

    Tunisia                    + 314

    Fiji                           + 303

    Botswana                + 287

    Eswanti                   + 267

    Malaysia                 + 232

    Cuba                      + 225

    Sri Lanka                + 221

    North Macedonia    + 213

    Iran                         + 201

    British Virgin Islands + 197

    Saint Martin            + 184

    Kazakhstan             + 181

    Montenegro            + 178

    South Africa           + 170

    Bahamas                + 170

    Russia                    + 169

   Trinidad & Tobago   + 157

When one looks at how 'bad' this virus is, one should take into account the countries that are showing the worst effects, and this give some idea of how good medical intervention can help.

ps. I lost my data base in the middle of the month and had to recreate it so there might be small errors in the monthly increases as I had to use the population data of the time of recreation and not as it was at the end of the month.  One day I will learn the lesson of making regular back ups of my data!

Need to skip Caribbean holidays for a while.

Although the over all numbers are falling, there is still a depressing large number of countries that have seem over 150 deaths / million population in the last month.

Mostly small island states, or Eastern Europe.  But there are 4 larger states in the list:- Cuba, Malaysia, Russia and USA.

September 2021   + Number of deaths/million in September

    Grenada                 + 1,210    [only one death recorded before this month]

    French Polynesia    +   653

    Bermuda                 +   613

    St.Lucia                  +   525

    Martinique              +   443

    Bahamas                +   442

    Guadeloupe           +   422

    New Caledonia       +    412    [their first recorded death occurred this month]

    Georgia                   +   384

    Antigua & Barbuda  +    353

    North Macedonia     +    351

    Sint Maarten           +    344

    Saint Martin            +    328

    Montenegro            +   316

    Malaysia                +   294

    Bulgaria                 +   290

    Suriname               +   279

    Bosnia & Herzegovina  +    248

    Guyana                +   209

    Cuba                    +   188

    Aruba                   +   186

    USA                      +   176

    Costa Rica           +   171

    Russia                 +   164

    Lithuania             +   164

    Armenia               +   160

    French Guiana    +    154

Has Delta hit there yet ??

Need to skip Caribbean and Eastern Europe holidays for a while.

The world average has increased by 28.0 to 643.3 deaths / million. Last month's increase was 33.8, so an overall slowing down, but still there are a large number of countries currently with a very high death rate (which I classify as over 150 deaths/million).

October 2021

    Romania              + 562

    Grenada               + 521

    New Caledonia      + 504

    Bermuda               + 469

    Bulgaria                + 455

    St.Vincent Grenadines  + 421   

    Suriname               + 350

    Armenia                 + 339

    Lithuania               + 331 

    St.Lucia                 + 292

    Latvia                    + 289   {new to list}

    Montenegro          + 282

    Bahamas              + 281

    Georgia               + 277

    Bosnia & Herzegovina      + 275

    Ukraine                 + 265   {new to list}

    Moldova                + 252   {new to list}

    Antigua & Barbuda   + 232

    North Macedonia     + 222

    Russia                    + 215

    Sint Maarten          + 205  

    Serbia                   + 199   {new to list}

    Belize                   + 188   {new to list}

    Martinique            + 165

    Guyana                + 160

    Trinidad & Tobago   + 152   {new to list}

Most of the countries that have seen over 150 deaths / million population in the last month, also had high figures for last month, meaning a long drawn out peak once Covid-19 is spreading fast in the country.

I find it concerning that so many Eastern European countries are showing high death rates, as most of them were showing natural population declines before Corvid-19 hit. So their rate of de-population would be increasing.  

With the world opening up ,I wonder what new variants will spring up ,or the ones already out there now  will have a few million more people to infect ,

It will be interesting !!!!!!

Could be a tusunami....

Not a wave!!!!!

Take care all 😷😉💉

I have concern about things happening in China.  We all know they lie to us about severity and we all know that they forced vaccinations on everyone.  So the fact that they are closing down and recommending people stock up for winter is VERY concerning.  Also, on top of that, I wonder what is happening down in africa in the remote villages we haven't heard about yet.  Way too many places that really bad stuff could happen and we won't know until its too late!

Worldwide, November's death rate was lowish at 28 deaths / million (close to what it was in October)

The Caribbean is still showing up in the list of countries with high death rates, but over all it seems to be declining there.  But Eastern Europe is an on going DISASTER, with too many countries having very high death rates for two or more months.

November 2021  -   Countries with more than 150 deaths / million in the month

    Bulgaria                      + 650

    Georgia                      + 505 

    Latvia                         + 501

    Romania                    + 462

    Ukraine                      + 422

    Armenia                     + 417

    Croatia                      + 414   {new to list}

    Hungary                     + 394   {new to list}

    Bosnia & Herzegovina   + 337

    Moldova                    + 331

    Trinidad & Tobago     + 328

    Lithuania                    + 327

    Montenegro               + 325

    Barbados                   + 263   {new to list}

    Slovakia                     + 253   {new to list}

    Russia                       + 251

    Slovenia                    + 230   {new to list}

    North Macedonia      + 216 

    Czechia                    + 215   {new to list}

    Greece                     + 215   {new to list}

    Belize                       + 211

    Serbia                      + 200

    Estonia                    + 196   {new to list}

    Poland                     + 175   {new to list}

    Antigua & Barbuda   + 151

DJ-Good info...December will be worse !

Dutch Josh wrote: DJ-Good info...December will be worse !

Love your realism DJ ,

I really don't see an end too this pandemic its going to be wave after wave,

Covid has a great source/host  for mutations.....

The human population on the move 24/7 round and round the world....it will be forever mutating.......

Never before in history has the human race faced a pandemic with a  jet propelled virus,the fastest thing in 1918 was Steam engine....

And the population didn't travel much outside their country,

Now take a look at how we  travel  around,

I know people here who travel over seas 5/6 times a year......

There was a South African  women on tv the other day saying how many times she had travelled to and fro from the Netherlands...... madness in a pandemic.........

Slow burn,no end......

Take care all 😷😉💉