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just some data

Printed From: Avian Flu Talk
Category: Main Forums
Forum Name: General Discussion
Forum Description: (General discussion regarding the next pandemic)
URL: http://www.avianflutalk.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=44684
Printed Date: April 20 2024 at 6:57am


Topic: just some data
Posted By: george99
Subject: just some data
Date Posted: February 02 2022 at 5:36am

just some interesting numbers


diamond princess cruise ship stats from start of epidemic one variant

no vaccine...no social distancing...no masks...older population...denser then nyc.recycled air

4000 on board....10 deaths...0.0025 death rate


usa 2 and a hlf years in...three or so variants

vacccines ... lockdowns...social distancing...masks

per 1m pop ... 2700 deaths..... 0.0027 death rate


Replies:
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: February 02 2022 at 5:53am

Worldometers has 712 cases on board of that ship, 13 deaths...but it is complicated...vaccines did not (get the chance to) do a good enough job...Non Pharma Interventions did slow down spread in 2020...Letting vaccinated spread the virus in 2021 was a major mistake...



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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein

Posted By: WitchMisspelled
Date Posted: February 02 2022 at 8:26am

DJ, I don't think George is using the formula to figure out CFR.  I believe he's just using the population against deaths ratio.  That's not accurate CFR, but I believe it convinces some of certain things.  No offense, my fellow NYer George, but cooking numbers well enough and you can make them say whatever you want them to say.  

Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: February 02 2022 at 1:33pm

On that basis, global population 8 billion...only 5 million deaths....what's the problem....WM By going for cases you may be creating the problem...."new politics" (sarcasm)



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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein

Posted By: george99
Date Posted: February 02 2022 at 3:39pm

the numbers are the numbers...death rate of a population then and now after several years..and i dont think anything i said was spun unlike a lot of posts here which blame the death rate on trump,climate change, the unvaccinated or the phases of the moon

Posted By: george99
Date Posted: February 02 2022 at 4:07pm

personally i dont follow cases but here are the numbers

diamond princess

raw test case with no mitigation

727 cases 4000 population 

.182 of the population caught covid

usa now after several years and massive efforts

76m total cases population 342m

.222 of the population caught covid

several variants but they did occur close together or overlapped

currently the usa is within 4% of the diamond princess test case with respect to number of cases after several years and four variants...diamond princess was a worse case scenario but the variants probably jacked up the actual later numbers...just an uneducated guess


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