Putin mobilizes 300k civilians as his active army suffers devastating losses. Allies starting to distance themselves as his demise grows nearer.

Vladimir Putin must return the Black Sea peninsula, including Crimea, to its “rightful owners,” Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said. His remarks come after the leaders of India and China also dealt Putin a rhetorical blow in recent days. https://bit.ly/3LzBJgM

Macron calls Russia’s sham ‘referendums’ in occupied Ukrainian areas cynicism and provocation.  French President Emmanuel Macron condemned Russia’s plans to hold pseudo-referendums on Sept. 23-27 to annex occupied Ukrainian territories.

US-India in talks to reduce country's dependence on

 Russian arms, energy

Russia is "no longer a reliable weapons supplier", and Indians are "coming to understand" that they could benefit from finding other suppliers, an official of the US State Department said

In a bid to isolate  https://www.business-standard.com/topic/russia" rel="noopener" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(37, 145, 220); text-decoration: none; outline: 0px !important; - Russia further from the international stage, the United States (US) is in talks with India over its reliance on Russian arms and energy.  https://www.business-standard.com/topic/russia" rel="noopener" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(37, 145, 220); text-decoration: none; outline: 0px !important; - Russia is "no longer a reliable weapons supplier", and Indians are "coming to understand" that they could benefit from finding other suppliers, a CNN report quoted a US State Department official as saying.

"We have been in deep conversation with India about the fact that we want to help them have options to diversify here," the official said. They added that India has been "heavily dependent" on  https://www.business-standard.com/topic/russia" rel="noopener" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(37, 145, 220); text-decoration: none; outline: 0px !important; - Russia for arms and energy.

The announcement came just hours after Russian president  https://www.business-standard.com/about/who-is-vladimir-putin" rel="noopener" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(37, 145, 220); text-decoration: none; outline: 0px !important; - Vladimir Putin announced a partial mobilisation of Russian citizens, escalating the offensive in Ukraine.

"I consider it necessary to support the proposal of the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff to conduct partial mobilisation in the Russian Federation," Putin said.

Mobilisation means the Russian citizens who are in reserve and have some military experience will be made ready for the battle. Putin added that the West was trying to "weaken, divide and ultimately destroy" Russia.

Russia is India's largest arms supplier. Russia is also supplying oil at subsidised rates to India. According to an announcement by Yury Ushakov, an aide to Putin, India-Russia's overall trade has jumped 120 per cent in 2022.

India has so far taken a middle path between Russia and the West. It has not condemned Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.

However, at the recently concluded summit of the  https://www.business-standard.com/topic/shanghai-cooperation-organisation" rel="noopener" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(37, 145, 220); text-decoration: none; outline: 0px !important; - Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, Prime Minister Narendra Modi told Putin that it was not a time for war.

"I know that today's era is not of war and we have talked to you many times over the phone on the subject that democracy and diplomacy and dialogue are all these things that touch the world," Modi said.

India's trade with the US has also improved. According to the CNN report, the India-US trade is more than $110 billion. Lately, India has become a major buyer of US military equipment.

Nukes or no nukes?

This escalation is more than just bizarre. It’s suicidal. If the nuclear arsenal is in the same abysmal condition as the rest of the Russian military, who knows what might happen?

What might happen is this:

• Instant coalescence of the Western military to a war footing. Military production goes to war levels.
• NATO enters Ukraine. A real war means the gloves come off.
• Belarus falls over because Russia can’t support it militarily.
• Republics cut links with Moscow to avoid becoming nuclear targets and for aesthetic reasons.
• China can absolve itself of any responsibility for support to Russia with ease. (Xi Jinping wasn’t exactly effervescent with praise in the recent meeting with Putin.)
• Russian troops mutiny all over Russia. (As it is, a lot of them have refused to fight in Ukraine. This may well be the last straw.) There aren’t enough FSB, Chechens, or Wagner Group to fight them.

As for “ continuing nuclear blackmail” as described by Putin and nobody else – Why bother? Russia’s military is collapsing quite well already. No need to even mention the subject on the Western side and nobody has.

Nuclear war

Russia  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction#Post-Soviet_era" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style='box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(13, 116, 207); text-decoration: none; font-family: "Yahoo Sans", "Helvetica Neue", arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;'>supposedly has 5000+ nukes . There is a new post-Soviet generation of nukes, but it’s unclear how many of these are operational. The older nukes may not be functional, simply because they’re so old and maintenance is so expensive… Or should I say lucrative? Like the tanks and everything else that fell to bits in days? Russia also hasn’t had much time to build many, if any, of the newer weapons.

If you assume 20 to 50% of these nukes are deliverable, the threat is much reduced, but still likely to cause a global catastrophe. That’s one of the reasons China may also not be too keen on Russia starting a nuclear war.

The nuclear card is the only playable card for Russia, but it’s a weak, one-time-only card. Russia could be decimated by the UK and France alone, never mind the US arsenal.

The logic is seriously flawed. Any nuclear action will bring an immediate response. The relatively small highly populated areas of western Russia could be annihilated easily.

Putin has said he’s not bluffing. Let’s be clear about this. Nor is anyone else. There can be only one response to any use of nuclear weapons. The Russian people know that, too.

This is a desperate move by someone playing a losing game. As I’ve mentioned before, don’t be too surprised if at least one of those Russian nukes is aimed straight at the Kremlin.

It can happen.

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