DJ, Lots of stories of "major events" that would happen today...I will try to catch some "info"... Let me start with "fitting music" [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fAcYS-_8L2s[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fAcYS-_8L2s - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fAcYS-_8L2s "Killing in the name of" by the North Korean (Peoples ?) Military Chorus...rare footage..(also fake...) Yes, there is a "referendum" in 4 Ukraine regions on joining Russia, earlier Crimea followed that road...Military Summary (MS) [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VuO1QunA-5I[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VuO1QunA-5I - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VuO1QunA-5I speculates the recent prisoner exchange (with Türkiye, Saudi role ? Or was that a seperate exchange ?) also may have included some agreement on no major sgelling of the four regions during the "voting"...There are some claims Poland now is thinking of organizing a likewise referendum in western Ukraine to include some regions that were part of Poland till the end on World War Two. MS even has some hope the referenda, Russian military build up (with 900 Russian planes near Ukraine borders - also to secure the referenda) may see a start of Ukraine - Russian talks. DJ My impression is "the west" is running out of means of support other then training. Most of the "west" may not be willing to get more involved...but support countries (like Poland, Baltic states) if they would go further...There may be lots of western weapons that still could make a difference-but they need well trained staff...Poland, Baltics, may be willing to send in their own military for "certain specific" operations. NATO will be involved -mostly away from direct frontlines-with lots of intel. Intel-here means telling Ukraine HOW to use specific long range weapons, providing precize coordinates...so all Ukraine is doing is press the button/pull the trigger... In a further escalation those "NATO staffed" command centers in Ukraine will be atarget...(In Syria Russia did-several years ago- destroy such a NATO/IS command center killing western staff -telling the west to back off...). Basic story is the west hates what Russia is doing...but has to face the facts that stopping it would-most likely-result in global war...NATO/west may be "mixed" on that...some countries going their own way-with limited western support to avoid major escalation- could be a compromise... Another-possible more agressive-move could be including (all of) Ukraine in NATO, in reaction to the Russian referenda...it would open the door to NATO forces facing Russian forces... DJ-I think there most likely will be a lot of indirect diplomacy between NATO and Russia. Both "parties" expected that steps taken would result in the other limiting their action. So far it only did bring further escalation...The sanctions war resulted in Russia getting MORE income...(DJ [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/russias-oil-exports-are-set-plunge-next-year[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/russias-oil-exports-are-set-plunge-next-year - https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/russias-oil-exports-are-set-plunge-next-year YES western countries may stop buying Russian oil soon...but they still need oil...other countries can not replace that Russian oil...So most likely Russia will go from direct to indirect oil export to the west...via Türkiye may be most practical...Or will it be labelled as "Ukrainian oil" -the west further lying to itself...Diesel, Kerosine is hard to find out where it came from, oil can be identified. Russia increased its refinery capacity...So-NO-I think the ZH article is going for a western false claim/illusion...Russia-with OPEC+-is dominating the market...NOT the west...) -The USS Ronald Reagan carrier is in Busan-South Korea...[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/something-going-on-in-china-military-convoy-80km-long-headed-to-beijing[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/something-going-on-in-china-military-convoy-80km-long-headed-to-beijing - https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/something-going-on-in-china-military-convoy-80km-long-headed-to-beijing ; Something is happening in China; a convoy -- 80 kilometers long - of People's Liberation Army units, is headed toward Beijing. In addition to this military convoy, we also now know that Beijing Airport canceled more than 6,000 domestic flights and international flights. Also, all tickets sold by the high-speed rail are suspended, and the rail is completely stopped until further notice. There are now widespread and persistent RUMORS (totally unverified) claiming a "coup" against Xi Jinping, may be in progress. Other RUMORS claim President Xi is "under house arrest." But no one is confirming any of these rumors, so what we're left with is what can be proved: Giant military convoy heading to Beijing, and all air-rail travel stopped. Chinese netizens have stormed Social Media timelines with reports that Beijing is under military seizure. The world, though, has no idea of what’s happening because the city is eventually cut off from the world.
According to News Highland Vision, former Chinese President, Hu Jintao and former Chinese Premier, Wen Jiabao had persuaded Song Ping, the former member of the Standing Committee and retaken control of the Central Guard Bureau (CGB). If the Chinese coup rumors are true, then the expectation is that the REAL hardliners take control. If true, a full assault on Taiwan is soon to follow. DJ...speculation...No idea how unusual such Chinese military movements are...I do not think a "coup" story is very likely. Bejing is several hundred kilometers of the Korean border...Taiwan is further away from Bejing... Maybe the military would be used for some goals in and around Bejing ? Several sources have much more worries about the East Asia conflicts...Eventhough Ukraine is the worst war in Europe since 1945. [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yugoslav_Wars[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yugoslav_Wars - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yugoslav_Wars may have seen up to 140,000 people killed...It is very likely the Ukraine war(s) did see more people getting killed...(certainly if you see the start of the conflict in 2014. [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_War[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_War - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_War has so far a very low number of people being killed., "just" over 10,000. I think a more realistic number would be around 150,000.). A look at some conflicts in East Asia; -Korea, the NK planning another nuclear test ? On the other side NK would "love" to be accepted by Russia, China...Russia and China focus on "Korean unification" both Korea's claim it is their top-priority...Many see "EurAsia" as the main global economy...for that matter SK industry-with China (NOT the US or EU) as main consumer may push South Korea for "balancing". DJ-The main role the US has in the South is protect against the North...If there are other ways of security South Korea may try to go for "de-escalation" and put its own economy first... From that perspective another nuclear-or other-test by NK is "stupid"...no doubt "Kim" was told so by Russia, China.. -Taiwan, a full scale military invasion by China (even with Russian/other help) is a "worst case scenario" for both China's...Indirect military action-limiting the fighting (taking over island near China mainland now part of Taiwan, air/sea combat)-but blockading Taiwan till it accepts certain "security agreements (a bit the Russia-Ukraine scenario) I think are more likely. Taiwan may have to-as example-accept foreign policy and defense will be coming from Bejing...Another "one country-Two systems "win-win" claim (of course most of the "win" would be for Bejing in that scenario...). -Japan has border conflicts with Russia-still also buying Russian energy..China's, Korea's...Japan -because of war crimes in the past (Korea, Taiwan Japan colonies 1895-1945) has "no real friends" in Asia. Japan industry may try to keep Japan out of major conflict-the Asian market is simply to important for Japan... -South China Sea...lots of oil, gas, fish, strategic...China has a lot of "border issues" with countries in the region...however Philipines did NOT push for escalation...other countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam etc.) also may go for talks with China... -The US...in fact is in a problematic situation in the Pacific region. YES, The US has major military bases (Okinawa, Guam a.o.) however most East Asia countries NEED good relations with China, Russia (Indonesia, Malaysia-like Russia also major oil/gas producers)...In Europe European interests are NOT the same as US interests...(voters will deal with the present European political elite ignoring it...Italy may get a female fascist PM this weekend-with Berlusconi (friend of Putin..) links). In (East) Asia countries now go for their own national interests..even if that would mean conflicts with the US... The US may seek provocation (weapons to Taiwan, US navy in South China Sea) ...Asian countries do NOT welcome such actions...See it as a show of US/western weakness NOT strength... Still "the US-led west" is going for a "global NATO" confrontation agenda...DJ-My impression western "foreign policy disasters" are resulting in a "west-rest" growing gap...China's claim; "Make trade not war" is much more welcome-around the globe-then a "global NATO" is... For today...Russia, Iran, China are already de facto as good as in war with the west...They may go for limited military actions against US/western navy in the Pacific/Indian Ocean...telling the west they have had enough... DJ-I "am happy in Holland" ...would like NL to be neutral-as we were till may 1940...In my view NATO is "more of a problem" for global peace then a "solution"...Both NATO and EU need reforms...did grow much to fast...Global health and climate problems are urgent...we do not need more wars...
------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
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