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Forum Description: (General discussion regarding the next pandemic)
URL: http://www.avianflutalk.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=45140 Printed Date: April 26 2024 at 1:26am
Topic: march 2023 updatesPosted By: Dutch Josh
Subject: march 2023 updates
Date Posted: February 28 2023 at 10:51pm
After the Wall Street Journal launched its Sunday leak the New York Times and the Washington Post also jumped onto the train. The Times thankfully does better than the WSJ given the 'low confidence' expressed about the 'intelligence' a prominent position instead of hiding it deep down in its piece:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/26/us/politics/china-lab-leak-coronavirus-pandemic.html" style="color: rgb(153, 51, 0); text-decoration: underline; - Lab Leak Most Likely Caused Pandemic, Energy Dept. Says The conclusion, which was made with “low confidence,” came as America’s intelligence agencies remained divided over the origins of the coronavirus.
The Post is less cautious. It is putting the content into the context of some 'storied team known as Z-Division' without ever explaining what that entity is.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/02/27/little-known-scientific-team-behind-new-assessment-covid-19-origins/" style="color: rgb(153, 51, 0); text-decoration: underline; - Little-known scientific team behind new assessment on covid-19 origins Small shift in favor of ‘lab leak’ theory was prompted by new data and group of weapons-lab scientists
The stenographers of various main stream media outlets understood the propaganda hints given to them and were eager to offer their participation in it.
DJ..Lab-leak nonsense in a US anti-China propaganda war is telling a lot;
-War above public health...
-Main stream media "embedded" keep pushing non-sense
-More non-sense should be expected....
DJ-sad part is more wars and more diseases also on their way....Governments/politics simply "don't look up" ignoring problems they can not make profits from...
This pandemic is the outcome of an underlying very major political crisis...war is another "symptom" of a political disease...
Here we present functional data on the cluster-five variant, which contains a mutation resulting in a Y453F residue change in the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of the spike protein. Using an ELISA-based angiotensin-converting enzyme-2/RBD inhibition assay, we show that the Y453F variant does not decrease established humoral immunity from previously infected individuals or affect the neutralizing antibody response in a vaccine mouse model based on the original Wuhan strain RBD or spike as antigens. However, biolayer interferometry analysis demonstrates that it binds the human angiotensin-converting enzyme-2 receptor with a 4-fold higher affinity than the original strain, suggesting an enhanced transmission capacity and a possible challenge for viral control. These results also indicate that the rise in the frequency of the cluster-five variant in mink farms might be a result of the fitness advantage conferred by the receptor adaptation rather than evading immune responses.
More #H5N1 mammalian infections reported in the US The USDA has added 10 additional mammalian infections with H5N1, with the bulk of those coming from Colorado Species include bobcat, red fox, mountain lion, skunk and American Black bear.
With the dual caveats that many birds and mammals die in remote and difficult to access places, and are never discovered or tested - and some states appear to be more proactive in investigating outbreaks than others - we have the https://www.aphis.usda.gov/" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(63, 63, 127); - latest update from the USDA on https://www.aphis.usda.gov/animal_health/animal_diseases/avian/images/hpai-wild-birds-map.png" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(63, 63, 127); font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(235, 237, 236); - wild bird die offs from H5N1, and https://www.aphis.usda.gov/aphis/ourfocus/animalhealth/animal-disease-information/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-2022/2022-hpai-mammals" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(63, 63, 127); font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(235, 237, 236); - spillover into mammalian wildlife.
Since their last update 3 weeks ago, the USDA has added 10 additional mammalian infections with H5N1, with the bulk of those (n=7) coming from Colorado (note: only 9 shown in the list below). Species include bobcat (n=2), red fox (n=2 ), mountain lion (n=3 ), skunk (n=1) and American Black bear (n=2).
With the lone exception of a single infected Bottlenose Dolphin in Florida, all of the reports of mammalian infection have come from the northern tier of states.
-
So far, https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/02/pnas-white-tailed-deer-as-wildlife.html" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(63, 63, 127); - unlike with SARS-CoV-2 in deer , we haven't seen signs of H5N1 transmitting efficiently in mammalian wildlife (possible, but unproven exceptions are in https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/02/russian-seal-mass-mortality-event.html" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(63, 63, 127); - marine mammals ). But once again, surveillance is extremely limited.
DJ...again...you do NOT need human-to-human H5N1 spread to see H5N1 becoming a total disaster....
-If insects can infect mammals it may effect meat/egg/dairy production (Eggs is already a problem...)
-Insect may also spread H5N1 "more effective" than H2H (Human to Human) spread can....
-DJ, I expected this year 2023 to become a "year of choices". Making the wrong choices will make this year our last year...
Wars have now become a very high risk of ending life on this planet. We are in the middle of a very major climate- and health-crisis. Food production is at risk. Our financial system -debt based- is collapsing...The only "way out" is international cooperation to at least try to limit damage...
My view for now is; We will NOT survive 2023....It is welcome some of "politics" now see "limits in wars"....It is very welcome lots of scientists keep doing their job...even if "politics for sale" does not welcome/defund science...
We are in yet another global wave of CoViD. Long term damage is major-decrease of immune protection. Very likely worldwide over 100 million Long CoViD cases...and "politics stop testing"...
We are in a slow collapse....
------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
Replies: Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: March 03 2023 at 10:42pm
DJ,
Lots of news..."war news" in latest news; In my view situation worsened even further. This means inflation further will increase, healthcare will decrease...
Also lots of H5N1-news...DJ-My view; likely after record number of H5N1 in birds we now see an increase in all kinds of mammals...However;
-No real signals of spread M2M Mammal to Mammal
-So most mammal H5N1 cases likely due to contact via infected bird (droppings)
-Still we may see H5N1 becoming "easier to catch" for mammals-so also for humans...
-Cambodia cases, father& daughter may have gotten H5N1 via other human (or mammal ????) different clade then infected birds in same area.
-China, Indonesia also may have had some human H5N1 (isolated most ?) human H5N1 cases
In the past we did see a much higher number of H5/H7 human cases but NOT with a CoViD-pandemic/massive H5N1 bird spread background.
Omicron recombinant variant XBB.1.5 & its cousin XBB.1.9.1 have now taken over & together reached a >50% share in most parts of the world! Not too long ago many were sceptical this would happen, but if no new variants pop up selective sweeps can be pretty predictable...
Bolivia’s worst dengue fever crisis in 25 years Bolivia’s Ministry of Health has reported more than 11,000 cases of the disease, while 33 people have died, mostly children.
DJ CoViD damages immune protection...so other diseases may get more chances. On top of that lots of (bacterial) infections may no longer be stopped by (most) anti biotics...
My view; using masks, protective glasses, gloves should be more accepted at workplaces...Trying to stop infection reaching the host...Of course we should be minimizing international air travel....(but we do not..."Don't look up"...)
Long Covid is associated with significantly increased risk of death, heart and lung problems "The long Covid group experienced increased mortality, with 2.8% individuals with long Covid dying compared to 1.2% of those without long Covid."
"We have now isolated the first ACE2-independent sarbecovirus from bat fecal samples"
and
FunctionalViromics
@FViromics
·
New preprint! Most sarbecoviruses do not use ACE2 and have never been isolated. We have shown how some can infect human cells without ACE2. Using what we have learned, we have now isolated the first ACE2-independent sarbecovirus from bat fecal samples. https://tinyurl.com/ysjtyjwj
While the spike proteins from SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 bind to host ACE2 to infect cells, the majority of bat sarbecoviruses cannot use ACE2 from any species. Despite their discovery almost 20 years ago, ACE2-independent sarbecoviruses have never been isolated from field samples, leading to the assumption these viruses pose little risk to humans. We have previously shown how spike proteins from a small group of ACE2-independent bat sarbecoviruses may possess the ability to infect human cells in the presence of exogenous trypsin. Here, we adapted our earlier findings into a virus isolation protocol, and recovered two new ACE2-dependent viruses, RsYN2012 and RsYN2016, as well as an ACE2-independent virus, RsHuB2019. Although our stocks of RsHuB2019 rapidly acquired a tissue-culture adaption that rendered the spike protein resistant to trypsin, trypsin was still required for viral entry, suggesting limitations on the exogenous entry factors that support bat sarbecoviruses. Electron microscopy revealed ACE2-independent sarbecoviruses have a prominent spike corona and share similar morphology to other coronaviruses. Our findings demonstrate a broader zoonotic threat posed by sarbecoviruses and shed light onto the intricacies of coronavirus isolation and propagation in vitro.
absolutely love the result that L976 gives *increased cell entry* in the presence of trypsin yet *reduced viral fusion* compared to V976 -- impressively direct demonstration that fusion protein stability is favoured in harsh conditions like exogenous trypsin.
So getting into a cell does not mean "fusion" cell-to-cell spread in a host...
Hospital-Acquired COVID-19 in England, 2nd Mar 2023 In the last 28 days, of 23,592 patients in hospital with Covid-19, 8,235 probably or definitely caught it there (34.9%) Signs of a dip starting? We're no longer quite at "record high"
DJ claims "the pandemic is over" translated to less restrictions is more hospital spread...
Western denial of the pandemic because "fighting Russia-Iran-China" now a top priority for a western elite ? TMN warning for a mix of pandemics because of CovId destroying immunity...
A rather special surprise awaited the passengers from Amsterdam to Billund on Saturday morning.
They were met by health workers wearing masks and protective suits.
Over the loudspeakers it sounded that it could be a possible virus or disease that was on the flight from Amsterdam.
All the passengers were held back at the luggage belts for an hour and a half before they could be allowed out into the arrivals hall.
This is what 27-year-old Nanna Hougaard Hansen from Aalborg says, who was one of the passengers who had to wait more or less uncomprehendingly at the luggage belt at Billund Airport.
Got almost no information - We landed on the plane from Amsterdam at 9.40. We waited some time for our luggage, when we get it, someone is told that they have to come with it, and no one could get out of the arrivals hall, Nanna Hougaard Hansen tells Ekstra Bladet.
After that, the passengers were given very little information.
- They said very little over the loudspeaker, but that they were about to find out something. It could be a possible virus or disease.
Afterwards, someone from the police came and said that it was 'totally harmless', but they did not get any more information about what was going on.
- We asked several times what they suspected, it was a bit bad because you get nervous about what it could be, says Nanna Hougaard Hansen.
People were lifted by health personnel At the airport, there were health personnel wearing suits and masks.
Nanna Hougaard Hansen says that she saw two girls being taken away by the doctors.
And when they came out there were ambulances in front of the airport.
All passengers were also asked to provide their name and phone number, and then they will be called if anything happened.
Which Nanna Hougaard Hansen thought was very strange, as they did not know what they could be called about.
Confirms stay in operation Ekstra Bladet has been in contact with the PR Manager for Billund Airport, Mads Bisp, who could neither confirm nor deny the specific episode. But he could confirm that there had been a delay in operations.
Ekstra Bladet has also been in contact with the duty officer at South East Jutland Police, who was present.
They confirm that they were present and that there were emergency doctors, but they cannot go into what the doctors actually did or why they were there.
Both the Police and the PR Manager refer to the Danish Health Authority, but as they have closed the phones at the weekend, it has not been possible to get a comment.
Maybe more info later on...NO info on this in NL !
“Global life expectancy has dropped two years in a row for the first time since 1959, and if it drops again in 2022 this will be historically unprecedented in modern history.”
Not only because of CoViD...also climate change, wars etc....Aging will be a factor as well-older people are more vulnerable for climate/health problems...
Whatever the risk for humans, this H5N1 virus is not expected to go away any time soon and will likely continue to drive many endangered bird species to the https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/dec/23/deaths-thousands-wild-birds-avian-flu-new-silent-spring-aoe" style='box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-weight: bold; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 18px; line-height: inherit; font-family: firasans, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 62, 116); transition: color 0.2s ease 0s; text-decoration: none; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(251, 251, 251);'>edge of extinction . The longer the virus remains at high circulation the more ‘rolls of the dice’ it will have to gain the wrong combination of mutations in mammals – whether these be seals, farmed mink or humans. If anything has been learned from the COVID-19 pandemic, it’s that effective vaccines and antivirals can greatly blunt the brunt of an incoming virus. Therefore, it seems prudent to hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.
DJ...public health is NOT an elite priority....
------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: March 06 2023 at 2:47am
DJ,
-War, short (see latest news for longer) it looks like NATO might send in "trained"forces...dressed up in Ukraine uniforms...Ukraine may have "an airforce with F35's"...a "NATO-no fly zone"...US seeking further escalation. The rest of the world -with China in a leading position- working on "answers" to US led insanity...
Adenovirus causes mild cold and flu-like illness in people across all age groups, but children are highly vulnerable. Dr Amitava Nandy, virologist and professor at the Calcutta School of Tropical Medicine, said the intensity of the viral attack completely depended on the immune status of the individual. “Since it is an endemic virus, we should have developed herd immunity by now. But I suspect, Covid has wrecked our immune system; so what was a common cold and flu-causing virus is leading to complications and severity,” said Dr Nandy. “Even malaria and dengue attacks are becoming severe. High fever in chikungunya usually persists for four to five days. Now it can go on for weeks.”
Dr Nandy said that since the diagnosis has mainly been presumptive and symptomatic, it cannot be said with certainty that adenovirus was the only cause of outbreak in Kolkata. “It could be the influenza virus, parainfluenza virus, rhinovirus or even a variant of Covid. The government has given instructions for Covid RTPCR testing, which will at least ensure that Covid has not struck again,” he said.
DJ..."living with CoViD is dying from CoViD"...still a lot of countries go for that insanety...
With the strong caveat that the Indian press often leans towards the sensational when it comes to coverage of influenza, and other infectious diseases - and many past stories have turned out to be overblown (see https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2018/11/a-couple-of-curious-flu-reports-from.html" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(63, 63, 127); - here , https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2019/01/morer-curious-h2n3-flu-report-from-india.html" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(63, 63, 127); - here , and https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2022/05/kerala-reports-of-unidentified-viral.html" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(63, 63, 127); - here ) - there are persistent reports of a large surge in Adenovirus infections affecting several areas of India, but most severely in West Bengal.
Overnight, CNBC carried the headline (based on reporting from IANS):
https://www.cnbctv18.com/healthcare/adenovirus-alarm-36-children-die-in-past-9-days-in-bengal-16100521.htm" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(63, 63, 127); - Adenovirus alarm: 36 children die in past 9 days in Bengal
Other headlines from the Indian press suggest even higher numbers of pediatric fatalities, although local health departments have released far lower numbers.
DJ, CoViD doing a lot of damage both to immunity protection and all over the body...combining it with climate collapse and global war is a "perfect route for human self destruction"....
David Christopher
@MLS_Dave
·
"The Dept of Public Health confirmed that as of Friday there have been 74 recent resident COVID cases, 19 among staff members, & four residents who have died." But the pandemic's over right? If I see one more person saying "Let me see your smile!"....https://cbsnews.com/boston/news/4-residents-dead-new-covid19-outbreak-yarmouth-nursing-home/
Of course it is NOT over....again-Corona infections in animals are very hard to contain...The idea "it will be stopped by herd immunity" is anti-science !
Federico Gueli
@siamosolocani
·
Now from issue #1723 we got it designated XBB.1.16 .
great catch by @LongDesertTrain .
In my view it has all the numbers to become the next thing. ( or the first of the next things better saying) twitter.com/siamosolocani/…
Since both testing and sequencing got defunded ("political bla-bla; it's over") we hardly know what diseases are spreading...lots of respitory issues...but also measles in some countries...
Claims of Marburg (again) showing up in Europe (Spain, Denmark-in a flight from NL) are NOT confirmed...
Finally some acknowledgement that so many people are dropping dead of Covid related diseases, such as sudden CARDIAC DEATH, months/year after 'mild' or even 'asymptomatic' infection.
DJ, like in climate collapse, wars, I lost hope we will see an end to pandemics...
I need more then coffee...may take a break...
------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: March 06 2023 at 10:07pm
Hospitals in the Netherlands were treating more than 900 patients with Covid-19 for the first time in nearly six months. There were 907 people hospitalized with the disease on Monday afternoon. The total has nearly tripled in four weeks with a corresponding rise in new hospitalizations.
The total rose by 18 percent since Friday, equivalent to an increase of 139 patients, the LCPS said. From the early days of the coronavirus pandemic, the organization helped coordinate care between different regions, and set up a network to transfer patients from overcrowded hospitals to medical facilities in calmer areas.
The current hospital total includes 48 patients in intensive care units, four more than on Friday. The other 859 patients were in regular care wards, an increase of 135 after accounting for new admissions, discharges and deaths. Combined, the patient total was at its highest point since October 19, according to data from the LCPS.
Just four weeks ago, hospitals were treating 316 patients with the disease. On March 6, the LCPS said there were 17 patients in intensive care, and 299 in regular care. At that time, the hospitals were admitting an average of 58 new Covid-19 patients per day, with three sent directly to intensive care.
Over the past week, hospitals admitted an average of 160 patients with Covid-19 each of the past seven days. Eleven of them were sent to an ICU each day on average.
The LCPS said on Monday afternoon that Dutch hospitals took on 191 new patients with the disease in the preceding 24 hour period. That was about 19 percent higher than average. However, nine of them were sent to intensive care, slightly below average.
Update van 6 maart: - virusniveau rioolwater 2.123 - 7-daags gemiddelde 2.004 - 182 nieuwe ziekenhuisopnames - 9 nieuwe IC-opnames Er liggen 1.065 mensen met COVID in het ziekenhuis, waarvan 52 op de IC.
A dozen people who were in direct contact with chickens infected with the H5N1 avian influenza virus were quarantined in the community of Cotagaitilla, Nor Chichas province of the Department of Potosí.
So far, no one has presented symptoms or been confirmed with a probable infection with the virus, said the head of epidemiology of the Departmental Health Service (Sedes), Huáscar Alarcón. -
The most susceptible to contagion is the person who transported the rooster on public transport, but his symptoms are closely followed. DJ, so for now no confirmed Bolivia human H5N1 cases...but I notice lots of countries are "nervous" about all kinds of high risk infectious diseases (Spain, Denmark recently had false alarms on Marburg-virus human cases).
Flutrackers also mentions measles showing up at several places...Adeno-virus getting children very ill in India...strepto-bacterial infections on the rise...
-Are we moving out of a CoViD-crisis but into a more general global serious health crisis ? Spending hundreds of billions on more war-resulting in even more refugees...NOT stopping/limiting international air travel (free for all kinds of diseases-spreading around the globe within 24 hrs...)...simply ignoring the very major risks...
DJ-I need a break...so I take a break...
------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: March 11 2023 at 9:04pm
One of my ideas was a possible co-infection of pigs, birds with a corona-virus; jumping from pigs to humans and later on from humans to birds...resulting in pigs getting AFS, birds H5N1...
However such corona co-infection is not detected....
Another idea could be "critical mass";
I try to make sense of the sequence of events; African Swine Fever, CoViD, H5N1 in birds-slowly spreading in other species...
So if for CoViD an indirect bat-human link (Wuhan market as the most likely starting point for spread ?) may make most sense...
Could "critical mass" explain the three events (AFS, CoViD, H5N1) ?
In a triangle disease - transport - host there might be too many hosts, often in combination with too much (air)transport not to end up in these kinds of crises ?
I try to look at this all from a history perspective; the Spanish Flu may have been much more an isolated global health event then CoViD is now ?
If "critical mass" (too much hosts, transport) makes any sense could we expect more health crises to follow-we crossed a threshold so the health crises are the logical outcome ?
Maybe related; hosts get infected all the time in many ways...most of the "interactions" do not get us ill..Sometimes a combination of infections could trigger disease ?
So when two hosts are in the same environment, one gets ill the other does not -an explanation could be in having different infectious backgrounds ? (We seem to be seeing this with CoViD).
DJ, Again -I am NOT a scientist, just try to make some sense...
If CoViD decreases immune protection and we keep hosts and transport above a "critical mass treshold" then the global healthcrises only will get worse...
Anti-biotics facing multi resistant diseases, climate collapse are other factors on top of a "mega-mix"...but in this theory reducing farm animals and transport would be tools to limit these crises...
We also demonstrated that rats are susceptible to additional variants (i.e., Alpha, Delta, and Omicron) that have been predominant in humans and that susceptibility to infection varies by variant. Our findings highlight the reverse zoonosis of SARS-CoV-2 to urban rats and the need for further monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 in rat populations for potential secondary zoonotic transmission to humans.
DJ, both spread of CoViD variants in non-human hosts and H5N1 spread in mammals are alarming...TMN claims there is work towards a new H5N1-vaccine...(there is already a vaccine based on a 2004 Vietnam H5N1 variant).
Maybe another note; We should keep our eyes wide open for other risks then CoViD and H5N1...less immunity could give lots of diseases more room...
Stay safe and sane !
------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: March 14 2023 at 12:10am
DJ, march 14...
The US may have worsened the $-crisis to save US banks and stocks...Without a functioning economy you can not have public healthcare...
. Iets minder XBB.1.9.x dan vorige week, maar schommelingen hou je altijd bij rond de 100 samples per week. Nog geen XBB.1.16, die snel lijkt te groeien in India. Wel een BA.5.12/XBK recombinant en een EL.1.
DJ, XBB.1.16 on the rise in India...XBB.1.9, all kinds of other recombinations showing up....Both CoViD and H5N1 by now could be widespread in mammals....
India: Seasonal viruses now attacking in packs. Doctors in Kolkata have come across several cases of multiple viral infections recently, including that of a 65-year-old woman who was struck simultaneously by four different viruses.
Another corner; US/western global dominance collapse...The "west" did "rule the world" something like the last 500 years...Asia has replaced that "west".... One can (still) deny it...fight it with endless wars only weakening the west...If the US "goes nuclear" indeed it will "stop Asian global dominance" but also end life on this planet...The wiser choice would be accepting changes...
The wiser choices in global healthcrises, climate disasters is to acknowledge them...face the facts...you do not have to like them...
Life on Earth needs certain conditions...there may only be very small margins....I also believe "nature has ways to rebalance"....
The problem may not be 8 billion humans on this planet...much more the way only a small group is able to do a lot of damage....
When you feel the heat of a fire it is wise to step back....Humans may be able to survive the unfolding collapse by going for damage control;
-stop flying diseases around the globe....
-reduce car use, meat production....
-Educate girls...it may be the best way of "family planning" ...(of course boys also need education...)
-No more investments in weapons...we are destroying ourselves already high speed in many other ways...
DJ-Denial is dominant....stupidity rules....Stepping back is not getting a lot of votes....so "we will burn" because of standing to close to the fire...
------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: March 15 2023 at 12:16am
My view-non expert-more H5N1 infected birds means H5N1 will end up in mammals eating infected birds (or their droppings etc.). So far spread between mammals has been limited...
Some variants of "Omicron" may be as different from other "Omicron" variants as Alpha was from Delta...still all named "Omicron" because "Omicron" would be the variant ending the pandemic...
Calling the present pandemic "endemic phase" is just another "wordgame" politics choose to go for....Insane non-sense to claim "they have it under control" while they totally lost control of virus spread...The only thing "under control" is the lies they tell you...
At least 65 million people are estimated to struggle with long COVID worldwide. Most cases occur in patients with mild acute illness.
link [url]https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(23)00493-2/fulltext[/url] or https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(23)00493-2/fulltext
March 11 marks 3 years since WHO declared COVID-19 to be a pandemic. While the world is determined to move on from the acute phase, at least 65 million people are estimated to struggle with long COVID, a debilitating post-infection multisystem condition with common symptoms of fatigue, shortness of breath, and cognitive dysfunction, impairing their ability to perform daily activities for several months or years.
Although the majority of patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 recover within a few weeks, long COVID is estimated to occur in 10–20% of cases and affects people of all ages, including children, with most cases occurring in patients with mild acute illness.
The consequence is widespread global harm to people's health, wellbeing, and livelihoods—an estimated one in ten people who develop long COVID stop working, resulting in extensive economic losses. In 2021, we called for a coordinated research and health-care agenda to tackle this new medical challenge. However, progress has been excruciatingly slow due to lack of attention and resources.
DJ...there is not a clear definition of "long CoViD"....If people test positive for the virus over and over again for months they do not fall into "Long CoViD" -still in an acute phase...maybe for months...Health issues longer then 4 weeks after a positive test by now may be not that "abnormal" ...so maybe health issues 6 months after a positive test ?
On the other hand, if you simply stop testing, most cases could be mild or even without symptoms at the start...may develop later on into long term issues...
DJ-Some indications the virus often remains in organs in an infected host...still able to do a lot of damage...An infection is NOT a joke ! From scar-tissue in lungs, blood vessels to damage in liver, kidneys etc, increase of diabetes...on the long run long CoViD shortens lives...
From the perspective of the virus NOT killing the host but using that host for further viral growth/mutations only worsening the pandemic...
Immune defense often is found damaged in (long) CoViD cases...opening the door to all kinds of other diseases...Adeno-cold-virus often seen as mild may become problematic with less immunity...
Study of Metformin as treatment for Long COVID: "A 42% relative decrease and 4.3% absolute decrease in the Long COVID incidence occurred in participants who received early outpatient COVID-19 treatment with metformin compared to exact-matching placebo." https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4375620
In vitro (with blood from Covid patients taken 5 days after their positive test), but still very interesting. "Vitamin B12 favorably modulated critical inflammatory mediators"
DJ, in itself welcome news...but we need to bring down CoViD spread-and we are NOT doing that...
Healthcare is under pressure in many countries; sick leave could be 5-10%...instead of decent pay some "politicians" rather import HCW-ers....Inflation means health care can do less with the same amount of money...
DJ-Like with climate collapse "politics" de facto is in denial of the growing health crises...making the outlook BAD !!!!
------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: March 16 2023 at 2:48am
Like many other "governments" the NL one simply ignored (inter)national laws and agreements when it did not fit their (sponsor) plans...Also in NL some "freedom parties" may try to send refugees to Rwanda...like the UK is trying to do...Start a war and refuse the refugees you cause...
Potential recombination between SARS-CoV-2 and MERS-CoV: calls for the development of Pan-CoV vaccines "Coinfection of SARS-CoV-2 and MERS-CoV may result in the emergence of recombined β-CoV, SARS-CoV-3, or MERS-CoV-2" https://nature.com/articles/s41392-023-01396-6
In a recent study published in Nature, Yan and colleagues demonstrated that NeoCoV, a potential MERS-CoV ancestor in bats, can use bat ACE2 as its entry receptor and that NeoCoV S pseudotyped virus, which contains a T510F mutation in the receptor-binding domain (RBD), enters cells expressing human ACE2 (hACE2).1 The findings reveal a potential zoonotic threat that MERS-CoV could, during its evolution, be gaining the ability to use hACE2 as an entry receptor and, thus, could also coinfect ACE2-expressing cells with SARS-CoV-2.
Brunei has a decent amount of XBB.1.16 as well. It does not seem to grow as fast there as in Maharashtra and Gujarat. I think because the competition is stronger. Not so much XBB.1.5, but more XBB.1.9.1/2. The 3 of them together seem to have a similarly steep curve though. 1/2
and
The 3 bring XBB.1.11(.1) down. The graph is based on 64 to 91 samples per week, which might explain the non smooth curves. A good country to keep an eye on, to see which one of the 3 turns out to be the fastest. 2/2
DJ...to expect corona-virusses to simply stop spreading is like expecting gravity not to be working when you fall....crazy !
Overnight the World Health Organization published their latest novel flu summary, which covers the period from late January to early March. Officially6 new cases were reported (3 H5N1, 1 H5N6, 2 H9N2) under the IHR regulations, while another 4 (2 H9N2, and 2 H1N1v) from China were apparently relayed by `unofficial' channels.
A recurring theme in these reports are reminders to all member nations of their obligation to report, in a timely fashion, all human infections with novel flu viruses (I've highlighted some of those passages below in red).
As we've seen all too frequently over the years, that doesn't always happen. Reports are often delayed by weeks or even months . . . assuming we get them at all.
Six of the 10 new cases mentioned in today's report were already publicly reported (see https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/03/cdc-update-on-cambodian-h5n1-cluster.html" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(63, 63, 127); - here , https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/03/hong-kong-chp-acknowledges-jiangsu-h5n1.html" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(63, 63, 127); - here , https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/03/chp-monitoring-h5n6-case-in-guangdong.html" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(63, 63, 127); - here , and https://www.chp.gov.hk/files/pdf/2023_avian_influenza_report_vol19_wk10.pdf" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(63, 63, 127); - here ), while details on the other 4 remain murky. This update also confirms that both the Ecuadorian H5 case in January and Vietnam's case from last November were both H5N1, although the clade of Vietnam's case has not been determined.
-
Over the past 3 years the COVID pandemic seems to have become an excuse for many nations not to report on novel outbreaks. The WHO often describes this diplomatically, as in their recent https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2022-DON422" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(63, 63, 127); - DON on MERS-CoV .
The number of MERS-CoV cases reported to WHO has substantially declined since the beginning of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. This is likely the result of epidemiological surveillance activities for COVID-19 being prioritized, resulting in reduced testing and detection of MERS-CoV cases.
Regardless of the reasons, without vastly improved surveillance and prompt reporting of emerging threats,we remain incredibly vulnerable to being blindsided by the next pandemic virus.
The US cases now just over 80,000 reported last 7 days, 847 CoViD deaths reported...again...if you do NOT test, NOT sequence...just look the other way problems only get worse...
Both CoViD and H5N1 may be "out of control" in mammals....of course we will see very major problems within months....
Stupid rules !
------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: March 17 2023 at 4:15am
DJ, March 17,
If provoking the Ukraine war was meant -by biden- to distract from his failing CoViD-policies as expected it only made matters worse...
The US tax payer had to pay for vaccines twice...first the research-then billions of profits...The US did send over 100 billion worth of "help" to Ukraine...replacing that would cost another 300 billion....
The (US) financial crisis has some structural elements...lots of banks hold US bonds at low interest rates...To deal with that further increasing US debts that are already record high...
So will "biden" go for global nuclear war as "distraction" ?
Maybe my (non expert) view on the -growing- health crisis;
COVID hospital admissions continue to rise with the daily average now nudged back over 1,000, more akin to recent peaks than the intervening troughs, even though the rise has been slower than previous waves.
Potential recombination between SARS-CoV-2 and MERS-CoV: calls for the development of Pan-CoV vaccines "Coinfection of SARS-CoV-2 and MERS-CoV may result in the emergence of recombined β-CoV, SARS-CoV-3, or MERS-CoV-2" https://nature.com/articles/s41392-023-01396-6
DJ the ongoing financial crisis/collapse, climate disasters and "don't look up politics" only get me more pessimistic...
You have to put any crisis into its context -look at its background...
Too many people trying to keep too many animals in combination with too many international travel during climate "change" what can you expect...?
Denial as a strategy - don't look up- like in the movie can get us all killed....
I fear the most likely response by the west/NATO on a financial collapse may be starting World War Three...Once the risks of wars may have been limited-people may have been able to find shelter elsewhere...in the nuclear age that perspective is gone...
------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: March 17 2023 at 4:58am
As individuals, we can protect ourselves by taking simple measures: vaccinate, mask, ventilate, clean hands, stay home if unwell, test and seek treatment, share good information, help others, etc…
and because we still have approx 10,000 deaths a week. Deaths reached 40,000 a week a few weeks ago. This is 10,000-40,000 too many when we can prevent them…
This is big. Spain's central bank warned yesterday that the Spanish population is sicker than ever with record hours of work lost and they say it is "in line with the predictions about covid sequalae." This comes a few weeks after Spain dropped its remaining mask mandates
DJ...just ignore all warnings, stop testing, defund sequencing...
------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: March 18 2023 at 1:49am
China CDC calls for more surveillance and genetic sequencing esp. in immune compromised patients. First case of coinfection and genetic recombination of SARS-Cov-2 Omicron variants BA.5.2.48 and BF.7.14 https://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/doi/10.46234/ccdcw2023.046
"Phylogenetic analysis (maximum likelihood method) revealed that these two samples formed a separate branch distinct from Omicron subvariants BA.5.2.48 and BF.7.14"
DJ, When you inform yourself on how hard it is to get corona in farm animals under control the insanity of how we deal with SARS-2 may become clear...
I think we may see exponential growth already in the number of (sub)variants, recombinations...a lot of CoViD spread may have reached lots of animals-with MERS/SARS-2 mix just another high risk, but also...what we see now could be defined as "SARS-3, SARS-4 etc"....it has gotten far away from CoViD-19...
McKinsey: One billion days lost to Covid "We estimate that each case of COVID-19 - including both those diagnosed and those that do not make it into official statistics - leads to 1.0 to 1.5 days of productive work lost"
Lots of economic studies indicate "saving the econonomy" (from NPI rules) may also bring very high costs...
Breaking: Village in Russia quarantined due to cases of Anthrax infection. This is after 2 cases were confirmed in the village. More than 130 people had contact with the sick, all of which are at home under the constant supervision of healthcare workers.
New faster variants, one after the other. That's what's going on. Just like in the rest of the world. (Plus waning vaccine effectivity probably, which many countries are (consciously) not fixing!) Purple: CH.1.1*, green: XBB.1.5, Orange: XBB.1.9* Graph: CovSpectrum.
------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: March 19 2023 at 12:14am
March 19,
The present healthcare crisis is the outcome of political failure. In 2003 SARS-1 was stopped in time...in 2020 global politics did not act in time...waiting for eachother to take first steps (for economic reasons) governments and WHO failed to take action in time...
Last night, The Atlantic - of course it was The Atlantic - had BREAKING NEWS!
And by BREAKING NEWS I mean yet another migraine-inducing story purporting to show that Sars-Cov-2 emerged naturally, rather than leaking from a lab.
DJ, "politics" in the US push for war with China...so-one way (lab leak) or the other (unreported animal spread) "blame China"...NOT the west also inactive most even during the Wuhan lockdown in january 2020....
It is "politics" now claiming CoViD is "endemic" and we "have to live with the virus"...it is the poor that pay the highest price, run most of the risk...
-We now face THOUSENDS !!!! of variants of CoViD !!!!!
-Over 40 million people -very likely much higher number- deal with long/post CoViD health issues...
-Immunity against other diseases is weakened by CoViD
-Big Pharma did make tens-of-billions in profit for products that -at the end- may have made the pandemic WORSE !!!! (More immune evasive, more variants)
DJ -my view- CoViD damage -put in money- may run into trillions...so "the west start another wat financed by money from thin air"....
I've tested positive for Covid a second time. My symptoms are much, much worse this time round. Also likely that my newborn has been infected. I've been vaccinated four times. Hybrid immunity is a bunch of BS.
DJ, I did take 5 vaccinations...last one over a year ago...limited contacts (was very lucky to be in that position) ...In most countries only some groups now are able to get a CoViD vaccine...Vaccine protection is waning fast...
Just a reminder to everybody that sales at the market of raccoon dogs were acknowledged in the terms of reference of the WHO mission back in Nov 2020. Everything you hear about Chinese authorities hiding it, and Western scientists proving it, is just BS.
and
Gilles Demaneuf
@gdemaneuf
·
When actually all that @MichaelWorobey had to do was to read the Terms of Reference of the WHO mission, published in Nov 2020, to see black-on-white that sales of raccoon dogs were acknowledged, as well as the exact number of stalls selling wild animals.
DJ, In a democracy people should be able to trust politics...Western democrazy is run by liars...
Just a friendly PSA: SARS-CoV-2 damages blood vessels and vital organs. Thus, #LongCovid (in at least some)=a syndrome of blood vessel & organ damage- along w/elevated cardiovascular risk. Familiarize yourself with the symptoms of heart attack & stroke, & listen to your body.
DJ-Lots of other diseases are becoming problematic on top/because of (Long) CoViD....Due to (hyper)inflation, destruction of anything "public" out of political neo-liberal stupidity out capacity to deal with the worsening healthcrisis is decreasing to "breaking point"....
Are we returning to pre 1900 conditions; rich live to over 80, poor hardly make it to 40 ? Based on greed and stupidity ?
------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: March 20 2023 at 5:48am
Binnenkort zullen we vnl. samples van patiënten zien. Dat heeft een aantal nadelen. Veel lagere aantallen. Een minder goede afspiegeling van de samenleving. Meer ouderen, terwijl nieuwe varianten zich vaak eerst onder jongeren verspreiden. Vertraging, want later getest.
Translation, Soon we only will get samples of (hospital) cases. A number of bad aspects. Much lower numbers. Less a reflection of society. More older patients, while new variants start their spread often in younger age groups. Delay-testing later...(DJ-Patients more ill...).
Watch how they rewrite history. Every single major study from 2020 showed that school closures had one the biggest impacts on reducing R compared to all other interventions (the exponential growth rate of the pandemic) - which likely saved hundreds of thousands of lives globally.
WTF no. It was the right thing bc we didn’t have vaccines, pol we’re dying + hospitals getting overwhelmed and schools drive infections. And they still do. Is this Stupid City?
In reaction to "news" like;
The Telegraph
@Telegraph
·
Closing down schools during the Covid pandemic may have been a mistake, Prof Jason Leitch has admitted. The dentist turned public health expert was once one of Scotland’s most high-profile advocates of lockdown
Somehow most people -worse, lots of "experts" - simply do not want to know/acknowledge how "bad it can get"....
The "west" for decades "solved" problems by creating more money-spend it in the private sector-hoping that-and time-will "do the job"...In fact the west created "money" to buy time...while lots of problems only did get worse...
Will the financial "crash" be worse than 2008 ? At that time Russia, China, Iran may stil have had some hope "working with the west" was in their best interest...That illusion is gone...BRICS+, SCO...OPEC+ are working on an alternative for the western financial system...So...could it get worse-for the west-then 1929 ?
DJ-More likely is Mpox simply no longer being reported...in most cases it does not kill or bring severe illness...It is stigmatized as sexual transmitted disease...So a lot of spread simply may go "under the radar"....
Nearly three years into the pandemic, it’s clear early expectations about the behaviour of the coronavirus and its toll on our bodies have proven overly optimistic.
Recall those early days when experts broadly assumed that once we’d withstood an infection our immune systems would adjust and fully resist another reinfection.
And then hopes rose that mass vaccination would provide the path out of the pandemic. Although vaccines did reduce deaths and hospitalizations, the effort failed to produce herd immunity.
But researchers saw further promise in what they called hybrid immunity: people who had been infected with COVID and then received mRNA vaccines would, it was assumed, develop a formidable protection through raised levels of antibodies (proteins made by the immune system to battle infection).
However variants emerged, capable of evading those antibodies. Many people who had been vaccinated or already had endured a bout of COVID were experiencing “breakthrough infections.” What could put the brakes on this ever-evolving virus, which can kill, damage organs and linger for months?
The answer from many scientists has been T cells — our bodies’ line of immune defence after antibodies. T cells can spot and attack viruses and even remember previous invaders. As virologist Vincent Racaniello https://www.virology.ws/2021/03/25/t-cells-will-save-us-from-covid-19/" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 13px; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(35, 121, 181); text-decoration: none; - titled one of his articles: “T cells will save us from COVID-19.”
But what if COVID wears down T cells in people who get it, and does so increasingly with each reinfection?
That concern lies at the heart of a rolling, rancorous scientific debate, a lot of it conducted on Twitter. A person at the centre of the storm, sounding alarms about T cell “dysregulation” since the early days of the pandemic, has been a U.S. immunologist named Anthony Leonardi.
By dysregulation Leonardi means three effects of COVID:
The hyperactivation of many T cells, which can prematurely age them
The exuberant function of those hyperactivated T cells, which can then cause organ damage
The exhaustion of those hyperactivated T cells, which implies they aren’t winning the battle against viral proteins they are supposed to defeat.
In other words, https://twitter.com/fitterhappierAJ/status/1297316663948382211" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 13px; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(35, 121, 181); text-decoration: none; - argues Leonardi, T cells are becoming hyperactivated by SARS-CoV-2 and are prematurely aging, harming organs, and becoming exhausted trying to rid the body of an immune-evasive virus.
If he is right, then no, we cannot assume that T cells will save us — not as thoroughly, at least, as we’ve been led to believe.
Which is why The Tyee decided Anthony Leonardi and his controversial assertions merit a deep dive.
Leonardi’s critics say he paints too dire a picture. Some prominent researchers have accused him of being misguided, their tweeted insults scathing.
Reached by The Tyee, Leonardi did not apologize for the pessimistic edge to his warnings. “Optimism sells and optimism around T-cell memory sold well too.” Rather than practice a “passive conventionalism” that pretends the pandemic is over, he said, public health officials “need to be candid with the public.”
“All I have done is warn people and people find the warnings unpalatable. Not only that, people have given opinions on the trajectory of the virus and the immunology and have been blatantly wrong and are seeking a pound of flesh out of anger.”
DJ, Is CoViD moving from an acute illness towards a long term immunity disease ? (Maybe a bit like HIV ?)
We have been talking about climate---talking does not stop climate collapse...Talking does not stop a pandemic...
Lots of viruses can set off autoimmune reactions in select populations, but Leonardi https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2021/11/10/leon-n10.html" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 13px; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(35, 121, 181); text-decoration: none; - thought COVID might have the potential to unsettle the general health of the globe, and even change life expectancy patterns.
Readings on the long-term health impact of the original SARS virus and its cousin MERS also https://www.nature.com/articles/nrmicro.2016.81" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 13px; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(35, 121, 181); text-decoration: none; - alarmed Leonardi.
These pathogens also disrupted the immune system. MERS, for example, not only infected and killed the cells lining blood walls but T cells as well. Both SARS and MERS could overcome the defences of the immune system, and result in prolonged chronic illness that lasted years.
To Leonardi the ramifications seemed highly significant. It meant that repeated waves of COVID infection might not leave durable or competent memory to fight reinfection or to clear the virus. Repeat infections could get worse over time resulting in more death, organ damage and long-term disability. He started writing letters to school boards and issuing warnings about his conclusions based on his extensive readings.
-
The uproar reached a fever peak this year when Leonardi speculated that repeated COVID infections could exhaust T cells in people 50 years or older leading to a blunted immune response. (Chronic infections such as https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC700385" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 13px; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(35, 121, 181); text-decoration: none; - HIV or Epstein-Barr virus typically exhaust T cells.)
DJ...So does (long)CoViD mean lots of other diseases out of control ? Flu-as an example-seems to be over...
Maybe some infections still create enough "group immunity" in combination with vaccinations, masks etc. to be limited...the worry should be in the long term trend...
CoViD may now be spreading in lots of animals...not vaccinated, easier target...but may return to humans...Also -lots of variants/recombinations-still spreading...But we stopped counting them...just like with "M-pox"...denial as a strategy...
-The "pandemic background", climate collapse, wars, economic crises is getting worse...making disease control harder...
Time will tell us much more on immunity problems due to CoViD-19...
------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: March 23 2023 at 4:15am
DJ, March 23,
On this -once- a forum I try to make up my mind...In "On Vaccines" here in general discussion I wrote my "view/idea"that Non pharma Interventions NPI may have (much) more use then vaccines in lots of healthcrisis...We have to STOP !!! spreading all kinds of diseases -via travel/transport- all over the planet...
Vaccines can result in "vaccine-immunity" evading variants...not only for CoViD, also -very likely- if H5N1 starts to get "very problematic"...The goal-in a global healthcrisis- should NOT be secure short term profits "economy" but to keep the planet liveable...
CoViD -in word game "lack of strategy" - is "endemic" not "pandemic" in lots of countries...however by definition "pandemics" are NOT limited to just a few countries...the WHO a.o. still goes for the "sticker" pandemic...
Dutch public health agency RIVM is preparing for a possible outbreak of the candida auris, a fungus classified by the agency's American counterparts at the CDC as presenting "a serious global health threat." The fungus can cause serious illness or even death in humans, and it can be difficult to treat as it is often resistant to multiple antifungal medications.
The fungus appears to be on the rise in the United States, and it is also on the rise in countries which border the Netherlands, according to the RIVM. The Dutch agency is working with the Radboud University Medical Center in Nijmegen on preparedness, a spokesperson for the institute confirmed after it was first reported by newspaper AD.
Eurostat: Excess mortality in the EU in December 2022 soared to +19% of the average number of deaths for the same period in 2016-2019..
DJ...I think there may be lots of reasons for the high excess deaths...Lots of "pandemic links"...most of them "we try to ignore or deny"....
Peter Collignon
@CollignonPeter
·
We find insufficient data to support a zoonosis hypothesis and instead conclude that the most likely scenario is that an infected person brought SARS-CoV-2 to the HSM, sparking a superspreader event. https://zenodo.org/record/7212687
DJ "blame China-lack of politics" pseudo science keeps pushing the "China did it" non-science...Ignoring lots of proof of CoViD-19 spread already much earlier-in many places-in 2019...But since that does not fit a western "economy/profits first-agenda" "science-for-sale" in fact is pushing non-sense worsening the global healthcrisis...
UK: 2.52 million people off work due to long-term sickness in the three months to January 2023, the highest since records began in 1993.
DJ...US population 335 million -so if 0,6% of ALL of the US population (not just the working population-often 50-60% of total) has Long CoViD worldwide 0,6% of 8 billion would be 48 million ? Just to make an estimate on Long CoViD damage...
6 new local ones from Singapore. Total going from 3 to 9. 4 new ones from Canada. Total going from 1 to 5. It is often a sign of fast growth if new uploads more then double the count of a certain variant. Let's wait and see. XBB.1.16
Also 1 in China-Guangdong...
DJ-Is there much point in posting on this once-a-forum ? Other then to make up my mind ? Ignoring all kinds of alarms, warnings..."humanity" is jumping into an abyss..."enjoying the sight"...
There is only a very limited "window of oppertunity" for (human) live on this planet and "we are destroying that" full speed...
The Holocene is the geological epoch that started approximately 11,650 years ago. The demarcation point between the Holocene and the preceding Pleistocene is the end of the last Glacial Period, in line with variations in the Earth's orbit.
Anthropocene
Instead of going down as would be in line with changes in the Earth's orbit, temperatures and greenhouse gas levels over the past few thousands of years have kept going up as a result of activities by people. In other words, changes in the Earth's orbit were no longer the dominant force causing changes in temperature and greenhouse gas levels, instead, human activities had become more dominant.
Start of the Anthropocene
It makes sense to name an epoch after the dominant force shaping its climate. An https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(153, 34, 17); - earlier analysis concludes that, from the year 3480 BC, emissions by people have been higher than the amount it takes to negate the natural trend for the temperature to fall. From 3480 BC, forcing due to activities by people was stronger than the natural fall in temperature that would have eventuated in the absence of such activities. This makes the year 3480 BC most significant as a climate marker, and it makes sense to regard this both as the base for the temperature rise from pre-industrial and as the start of the Anthropocene.
End of the Anthropocene
At the https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2015/12/paris-agreement.html" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(153, 34, 17); - Paris Agreement , adopted in 2015, nations pledged to limit the temperature rise to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, with efforts taken to limit it to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The image below illustrates that, despite these pledges, these thresholds may already have been crossed.
The https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(153, 34, 17); font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); - earlier analysis concludes that the rise from pre-industrial to 2020 could be as much as 2.29°C, which would mean that the thresholds set at the Paris Agreement have already been crossed and the rise from pre-industrial may well exceed 3°C soon, in turn effectively making 3°C the (new) threshold that should not be crossed, the more so since humans will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise.
On top of that, the outlook over the next few years is grim. Circumstances are making the situation even more dire, such as the emerging El Niño, a high peak in sunspots, the Tonga eruption that added a huge amount of water vapor to the atmosphere. Climate models often average out such circumstances, but over the next few years the peaks just seem to be piling up, while the world keeps expanding fossil fuel use and associated infrastructure that increases the Urban Heat Island Effect.
As a final straw breaking the camel's back, the world keeps appointing omnicidal maniacs who act in conflict with best-available scientific analysis including warnings that humans will likely go fully extinct with a 3°C rise.
DJ...do we select "leaders" to lead us into selfdestruction...Do we realy need "leaders" for that ???? We are killing ourselves via pandemics, climate collapse/destruction, wars...At the end we are not only "naked apes" but also "crazy apes"....
------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: March 24 2023 at 3:09am
DJ, March 24...(my non expert view)
Vaccines may -on the long term- and depending on the disease- not do the job needed. This could be a lesson from the (ongoing) CoViD pandemic;
-Pharma lied on the long term safety of the (mRNA) vaccines...Maybe at first vaccine-producers underestimated risk of complications because of the "high speed" production procedures...but later on much higher risks became clear.
-Vaccines can result in mutation selection towards evading vaccine-immunity...
Flu vaccines, lots of other vaccines no doubt still will do a great job...but in a major pandemic outbreak Non Pharma Interventions (I think) will have to do most of the job...Vaccines only can be of limited-short term-use...
Weekly update for COVID-19 in the UK: Cases are rising, up to 4,300 a day. (PCR & LFT) Admissions are stabilising at 1,000 a day. Deaths are rising to 120 a day. (28 day count)
People who survived the first 30 days of COVID-19 exhibited increased risk of gastroesophageal reflux disease, peptic ulcer disease, acute pancreatitis, functional dyspepsia, acute gastritis, IBS and cholangitis.
38% of women in California are suffering from Long Covid. If this is not a wake up call, then I don’t know what is. We are disabling the population. This won’t end well.
"a new normal"...Politics for sale go for "economy"=profits even if they have to give up public health...
DJ A link to nature...Of course climate change spreading diseases once tropical to the north and south of the tropics is just one of the many ways "we keep destroying ourselves"....
Enough-coffee !
------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: March 25 2023 at 12:33am
LIVE: Join us for a discussion on Long Covid, with a special pre-recorded segment with Dr Eric Topol & Julia Moore Vogel, guest Dr Luke Munford, hosted by Dr Binita Kane & Prof Trish Greenhalgh, chaired by Dr Stephen Griffin, Dr Duncan Robertson on numbers
One in 50 people in Scotland had long Covid. This was likely a "significant underestimate" because the study did not include people who did not visit their doctor or were not formally diagnosed.
DJ...If 2% of the global population would have (had) Long coViD that would be 160 million people...
Covid-19 vaccines affecting the gut microbiome - bifidobacteria wiped out. One of the most alarming things we have heard during the entire pandemic.
DJ...you may have to accept lots of risks in a direct crisis...But all the time a long term strategy to stop/limit pandemics simply is missing...not a priority...
AMA President
@amapresident
·
Health care facilities have an absolute obligation to protect staff, patients, and visitors from avoidable harm. Whether it's COVID infection, injury, violence, bullying - the lot. If you’re not protecting them, you're part of the problem. Now isn't the time to just give up.
A healthcare company has been held responsible in court for the financial impact suffered by a worker who developed Long Covid, in the first case of its kind in the Netherlands. The 28-year-old nurse, who worked at a nursing home in Zuid Holland, won her case last December but the verdict only became definitive this week, health news website Zorgvisie reported.
The woman was able to show that she picked up coronavirus at work at the beginning of the pandemic in March 2020. She went on to develop post-Covid complaints which are still having an impact. She is unable to work properly and faces extra costs for domestic help.
The woman’s lawyer is now looking at the size of the claim which will be submitted, which experts suggest could be several hundred thousand euros, Zorgvisie said. The woman worked with people with dementia and was not always able to keep to 1.5 metres distance. In addition, the nursing home’s doctor did not give staff permission to wear face masks because this might frighten patients, and because of the shortage of PPE.
The court ruling clears the way for other healthcare workers who picked up Covid at work to make a similar claim.
DJ, Since public healthcare in NL is "close to bankrupt" I expect further legal steps against the government...Lots of governments will "blame" the care facilities to avoid governments having to pay "trillions" to compensate tens-of-millions (?) HCW-ers, teachers etc. now dealing with Long CoViD...
Escalating risk—“Risk of international spread has not been ruled out”—The ongoing #Marburg outbreak in Equatorial Guinea is significantly larger than has previously been acknowledged, according to new information released by
of course lots of other health issues increasing...Some/a lot may have links with immunity-CoViD-decrease..
DJ-Corona virus outbreaks at farms are well known for decades...Often the only way to control the outbreak is killing all the farm animals...Somehow "experts" expected CoViD to act differently in humans...Simply ignoring science...
WHY ??? would CoViD become "mild" over a longer time ? Vaccine/group immunity has limited/no effect...on the longer term only resulting in more immune evasion and more mutations...
DJ-I would love to believe "it is getting milder" -spread in animals should be another warning sign...via sewage/waste water CoViD is now widespread in a.o. rats...
The way we "deal" with major crises is denial...that will kill us...
------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: March 26 2023 at 12:10am
(see also Code Black-latest news...dumping the "share in debt" -negative value US$ is a very complex operation...)
NOT stopping CoViD19 is NOT part of western discussion-but "blame China" is pushed...Putting first billions into research on CoViD vaccines at "warp speed" then billions more in Big Pharma profits is "normal"...If HCW-ers want decent pay "we import HCW-ers"....
Of course going for PR wordgames "endemic not pandemic" ...Not due to CoViD in hospital but "just with CoViD"....and now simply stop testing/sequencing...
Reminds me of stupid bla-bla in a burning house-lets go to rooms already burned down because we will be safe there...
Lots of other diseases now increase because we are running out of immunity defense...CoViD, H5N1 spread in many species...
DJ-Like out of control climate collapse the way "our leaders" did deal with CoViD made it the pandemic...so lets start another war...
------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: March 28 2023 at 12:13am
DJ, March 28...it is supposed to be spring here in NW Europe...but we have a mix of cold days-even (melting) snow-mixed with warmer-windy-days...from time to time lots of rain..
1,800 Covid Infections In India In 24 Hours. This marks the first time in 134 days that the number of active cases has surpassed 10,000. The daily positivity rate is currently at 3.19%, with a weekly positivity rate of 1.39%.
DJ, More from Asia-with over 50% of the global population;
India: 427 H1N1 infections and 309 H3N2 infections in humans. Three suspected deaths are reported due to H1N1 infection, whilst one H3N2 suspected death is also reported.
H3N8 - Another human bird flu infection found in China.
DJ, It is "in fashion" NOT to link decrease of immunity from CoViD to an increase of all kinds of other infectious diseases..."CoViD is history-so 2022"-kind of general stupidity...
.
Judging by the Usher tree, I expect it to belong to a person with a chronic infection of more than a year now and that the virus has acquired almost 50 mutations in that time!"
DJ...the reason we do not learn from history is we do NOT want to learn from history...
Also lots of claims of "vaccine-long term-damage"....I see it as complex; If there was a 1 in 800 chance of complications then every vaccine did bring a 0,125% chance of complication...I did get vaccinated 5 times...I would welcome honest studies on vaccines...but like "how the pandemic started" it "got political"...so not fact based...
Politics as a destructive power...sad humans...
------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: March 28 2023 at 11:40pm
DJ, March 29...
-We may see a US/UK/Poland-NATO escalation in Ukraine..."the west" will push its insane ideas to a bitter end...
Another insane idea is calling an ongoing pandemic "endemic"....
Lots of questions on vaccines...I think the basic question is did vaccines get us -one way or the other- out of the pandemic ? The answer is "No"....indie_SAGE has the view "vaccines PLUS !!!" -my view by now is Non Pharma Interventions would have had to do the main job...But it did not fit a "political story"...
SARS-CoV-2 is presently circulating in the U.S. at higher rates than this time in 2021 & 2022 combined. Biobot has several elegant graphs of #COVID wastewater data. Here is their year-over-year figure. https://biobot.io/data/
DJ, besides that CoViD now is widespread in all kinds of animals bringing even more mutations, recombinations...
Getting COVID-19 Could Weaken Your Immune System Even relatively easy bouts with COVID-19 can still take a toll on the immune system, according to a paper published Mar. 15 in the journal Immunity—particularly on T-cells
We also found that prior SARS-CoV-2 infection resulted in decreased CD8+ T cell activation and expansion, suggesting that prior infection can influence the T cell response to vaccination.
I'm so tired of people telling me masking is optional. I DONT WANT YOUR FUCKING GERMS, JANET! You've had COVID 4 times and can barely breathe going upstairs and your cousin and dad just died of strokes caused by COVID but you want me to unmask? Bitch, no.
DJ...We did see (till reporting stopped) lots of other diseases getting out of control-immunity linked...
A person might not see the harm that Covid is causing immediately because one infection may not be severe, but they shouldn't press their luck -- the next one might be, and organ damage and immune system dysfunction are hidden until they aren't.
-
Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing
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SCOOP—Dr Fauci admits key mistakes:
1) #COVID19 variants really bad—evades immunity, drugs, and vaccines 2) Asymptomatic transmission 3) Virus is airborne I recall rude people once mocked me about “fear-mongering” about “scariants”, on asymptomatic, on #COVIDisAirborne
So ...NO infection is not a good way to get "immunity" for two reasons;
-It does a lot of damage
-It does not provide long term immunity
Still "boosting natural immunity" seems to be the "new religion"....
Time & time again, the "fear mongers" were proven to be RIGHT ALL ALONG! And the minimizers have been DEAD WRONG. It's time for the media to STOP platforming the minimizers & start speaking only to people like
This is quite extraordinary. We had another Delta/Omicron recombinant XAY.2 approaching 6% in Denmark recently, but 30% and rising! I thought it might be a reflection of XBC putting more people in hospital and testing/sequencing going down, except in hospitalised, but ... 1/2 twitter.com/siamosolocani/…
if that were the case, I would expect the percentage of samples from men being sequenced to be higher in XBC. This is not the case.
So XBC.1.6 seems faster than XBB.1.5, IF numbers are representative, but maybe slower than XBB.1.9.1 and XBB.1.16 (we'll see next week).
DJ, most samples being sequenced by now could be from hospital (more severe, older) patients...Since we gave up on public testing we simply miss lots of info...
The sick person corresponds to a 53-year-old man affected by a severe influenza case. The patient is stable within his gravity. The health protocols established for the management of this disease were activated and the corresponding tests were taken for analysis by the Institute of Public Health (ISP), which confirmed that it is avian influenza. The source of contact is investigated and whether there is a history of others affected in the patient's environment.
"We have detected it since the day before yesterday and 700 birds have been slaughtered"
Approximately 30 people are being monitored by the health secretary for being in contact with birds and being the ones at risk of contagion.
“There is always the possibility of having a problem with humans, for that reason as soon as an alarm is triggered by Senasica we also go, the risk is low, the jump that occurs from birds to humans is very low, but there is always that possibility".
Ten South American bush dogs (Speothos venaticus venaticus) have tested positive for highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) in March 2023.
These animals were part of a captive breeding programme at a zoological premises in England. They were tested as part of a routine investigation into an unusual mammal die-off in November 2022. Ten animals died or were euthanised in a group of 15 bush dogs, over a 9 day period.
The bush dogs had minimal clinical signs before death, and APHAcannot definitively state whether or not H5N1 caused the clinical signs. Influenza of avian origin was not suspected at the time; the virus has since been detected in postmortem samples.
There is no clear evidence suggesting mammal to mammal transmission. It is very likely all animals were exposed to the same source of infected wild birds.
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 13px; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(35, 121, 181); text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(235, 244, 249); - COVID-19 The United States has had substantially higher death rates than similar high-income countries in Europe in all but the oldest age groups, but the gap widened even more during the COVID-19 pandemic, a new study revealed today.
Earlier studies had documented a widening mortality gap between the United States and five European countries between 2000 and 2017. The five countries include England and Wales, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain. A comparison of the latest excess death trends between the two regions from 2017 through 2021 appears today in https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0283153" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 13px; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(35, 121, 181); text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(235, 244, 249); - .
Multiple causes, deaths in younger adults influenced US trends
Covering a period that includes the first years of the COVID-19 pandemic, Patrick Heuveline, PhD, professor of sociology at the University of California, Los Angeles, calculated excess death rates for the United States and the same five countries, finding that that gap widened between 2017 and 2021 and that COVID-19 contributed to the increase.
Between 2019 and 2021, excess deaths in the United States nearly doubled, but 45% of the rise was from causes other than COVID-19. Looking just at 2021, 25% of all excess deaths were linked to COVID-19, which accounted for 223,266 of 892,491 excess deaths from any cause.
Heuveline said the increased deaths from other causes during the study period could reflect a higher degree of COVID-19 deaths being attributed to other causes. Also, rates of unintentional injuries in the United States, such as those involving opioids and alcohol, are also rising.
And though the contribution of COVID-19 deaths should tilt toward older age groups, in the United States, deaths in adults ages 15 to 64 continue to make up slightly more than half of excess deaths in recent years.
Vaccination gaps, health disparities among possible reasons
In a PLOS https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/983586" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 13px; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(35, 121, 181); text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(235, 244, 249); - press release , Heuveline said more research is needed to tease out how the pandemic widened the excess mortality gap between the US and some of its European peers. He said, for example, that studies could examine if vaccination rates or social conditions that put a disproportionate burden on minority populations may have played a role.
"The mortality gap widened during the pandemic, but not just due to the US handling of the crisis mortality from Covid-19," he said. "The chronic toll of excess deaths due to causes other than Covid-19 continued to increase as well, further demonstrating the US health policy failure to integrate the social, psychological and economic dimensions of health, from a weak social security net and lack of health care access for all to poor health behaviors."
DJ, Both the US and UK could be seen as "poor countries with a rich elite"...extreme income inequality. Could it be US citizens are "old" healthwise at a younger age then EU citizens ? (Obesity, general condition of US citizens worse ?)
From clapping nurses to ridiculing children in just two short years. Where has our compassion gone? 14-year-old Kent boy left bedridden from Long Covid told to 'stop making it up' by doctors.
DJ, Long coViD may be a problem for over 100 million people so "blame the victim" because failing politics can not pay the costs for the disaster they created....
Marburg, fungal infections etc also make the news...flu in India out of control...."But everything is under control"....
------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: March 30 2023 at 11:48pm
DJ The "suggestion" the Russian Flu of 1890 could have been CoViD may be wishfull thinking-giving an idea the present CoViD pandemic will become a sort of cold-virus. But we may be wrong....
-Less immunity opens doors for all kinds of other infectious diseases
-CoViD itself keeps coming up with all kinds of variants
We end up fighting a losing battle ....In combination with both wars and climate collapse out of control we-as humans- may not survive...Only drastic actions-"safety bubbles"-may give "us" as a species-some chances...
Hope to be very wrong...
------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein