radio program @noon pst re: mutation

Bird Flu
From Asia to Africa and now Europe, bird flu is on the move--with 200 million birds in 30 countries killed by disease or destroyed by officials. Wednesday, on To the Point, what's the likelihood of mutation that could lead to a human pandemic? Is the world ready?

Will air Wednesday, February 22, 2006 from 12:00 - 1:00 pst

You can listen to this online at: http://www.kcrw.org

Just click on '(simulcast)' in the upper left hand corner of the home page.

Here's what stood out to me from the radio cast.

WHO interview:

WHO cannot predict a pandemic.  Some have predicted that the virus is only a couple of mutations away but that statement was made where there are clusters of human cases.

Most likely the virus is being spread to humans from plucking of feathers that creates dust and infects humans.

2nd interview:

Pandemic depends on stopping the spread of the virus in animals.

200,000,000 poultry and ducks have been culled.

Financial resources are most important to provide resources and support to stop bird flu from spreading. $2 billion in dollars and in-kind donations have been made.

There is a vaccination for animals but not humans.

Author interview, Laurie Garrett: "The Coming Plague"

We are still in a race to catch up with the virus. We are not in a state of prepardness therefore there is not safety zone.

Virus is following a very predictive course. We can predict where the virus is going to show up next and predicts that we will be able to predict when it will show up in the U.S. 

China was slow to respond with a huge bird dieoff. Moved from China to Siberia with a huge range of bird species dieing off while the living were carriers of the virus. Flyways predicted movement from asia to africa to now europe. 3 flyways are now contaminated. As northern hemi warms, another cycle predicted in Siberia and Europe and then reaching N. America - across Siberia over northern straight into Alaska or route of entry east atlantic flyway - iceland, greenland then northern Canada.

Canadian and US gov't should be working together to set up surveillance of bird populations in N. America to report who to report to, what to watch for etc....

Globalized threat of microorganism's is really quite intresting. Can we globalize economics, culture, human movement, prepardness, health safety, risk assessment. We have to go beyond what we do now. This threat is a different type of threat than terrorism.

Doctor Micheal Austihaul??

Birds are coming back to N. America but we need to worry about the human pandemic.

When BF finally arrives in U.S. we should not panic but be concerned. Our poultry industry is very different and we won't see as bad of impact as Asia is seeing.

H5N1 is a kissing cousin to the 1918 pandemic. Genetic studies show that mutations do occur in this virus. Protein tag is similar in 1918 and H5N1 virus and both are lethal. Those similarities is what is concerning to make scientists keep eye on the ball.

Even a mild pandemic will be kill millions of people world-wide.

Dr. Seagall

Similarities between 1918 and H5N1 virus don't mean there will be a pandemic but that the virus is a killer. Try to control in the bird population. Don't minimize human risk but don't write off H5N1 as next pandemic virus.

Either way the world is not ready for another pandemic. Pandemics happen and we are unprepared.

Hospitals, food, medicine etc.

Fear has to be considered and how fear will affect the U.S. when BF does hit.

Global economy will crash. When that happens products and services will be very limited. It is imperative to look at how to protect the world and not be so focused on America.

Vaccine is several years away. It is a shame it is that far away. Vaccine companies are scared away due to the swine vaccine back in the 1970's.

Worst case scenerio is that virus will mutate over the next year or two but if a pandemic where to happen today then it would be very different. Some things would be worse than 1918 and some things would be better.

Laurie Garrett, who wrote: The Coming Plague, which I read some years ago while sick with the flu, said that we can predict where and when bird flu will turn up next. In the next 2 months, as the northern hemisphere warms, there will be one of two routes through which migrating birds with bird flu will arrive in North America. The first and primary route will be the one across Siberia to Alaska.  This route connects to every bird flyaway. At the same time or before, birds could arrive through the East Atlantic flyaway, coming from Africa to England to Iceland and Greenland, to Canada, down through the eastern seaboard and toward Brazil. She said we need a better way to survey migrating boards, and need to activate dedicated bird watchers.

you can listen to the show anytime (on demand). just go here:

http://www.kcrw.com/archive.html

the show is called: Bird Flu, the Next World Pandemic?
on To the Point. 2/22/06

the show starts in at around 7:30 minutes so fast forward.