Kilt-Agreed! We have been ready for a while now. Something is comming thats for sure. Best to you!

I also agree this is alarming. Recently in the section AFT Prepping several lists have been reprinted and other items added. Everyone be sure and review the lists, inventory your supplies, pay close attention to your prescription medicine stash rotation, over-the-counter-meds, and first-aid supplies. Replenish, increase stock, get organized. I believe we still have many months, but this is an alarming development.

I am sorry, not trying to rain on the parade here, but can someone please explain this to me?  if birds are developing resistence to this disease, then they are fighting it well and NOT getting sick.  isn't that GOOD?  Doesn't that also mean that humans could likely develop the same resistence to it and also not get sick?  What am I missing here?

Sure humans will eventually develop the immunity to the BF just like they have developed the immunity to all the viruses that have emerged from CHINA but to what cost to humanity?  A million, 10 million a billion death world wide that what you are missing. If BF hits the world with full force and we will continuing to be stupid like we are now fighting over money, religion, nationality, pride, land,  resources, global warming   the world population we be reduced to one or two billion people Maybe 
Humans will survive but were and how many we don’t know

roni3470 wrote: I appreciate that explanation and it somewhat makes sense.....so your saying virus has found a way to live inside chickens but not to kill them so it can survive. (I think) so my only question to that is that if it has turned itself into a less lethal form then isn't that still a good thing for us because if its no longer killing chickens wouldn't that mean it would no longer kill humans?

floriduhgirl wrote: So...the virus has changed, but it isn't dying. Suggesting‚ the change it has made will not make it go away. (IE. sometimes viruses mutate in ways that reduces their chance of survival) This is troublesome because we have a reduced ability to detect it (keep in mind this change has no effect on the rate of viral mutation, it just makes it harder for us to detect). It also means the virus has an ability to adapt...something we definitely don't want. So, no, in my estimation....this is not good.

When the chickens are not falling ill or dieing,
humans don't know the virus is in the area,
humans don't know to stay away,
humans don't know to take precautions,
humans die at an alarming rate
because many days went by contaminating humans
before humans started getting sick and dieing.   

I agree, this is not good.
    
    
    

My take on the situation is this:

When a NEW virus comes out of the guts of wild birds - it is new and there is no immunity to it so its very deadly to birds.

Umpteen millions of birds die in a big die off from the new virus but not all birds die - some can handle it and have some ability to fight the virus - perhaps 1 in 100 and 99 die off.

The one surviving duck then breeds with another survivor and their off spring also carries some genetic ability to fight off the virus so ducks for example breed fast and have little ducklings every spring - so theri numbers build up fast after a die off from the new virus.

These resistant survivor ducks carry the virus all around the world where the killing and surviving begins again.

Now it seems that Ducks carry the virus in Vietnam and Chickens carry the virus and they do not get the sickness - its no longer new to them.

This virus is still new to us and now its everywhere people in Asia will catch it more now because we cant see sick birds so its business as usual except that they carry a deadly virus in their guts so people catch it.

Now the more people that catch H5N1 the faster it mutates to people and when that happens, the virus becomes a human virus and because its new to humans we will get the mass deaths that has already happened with ducks and chooks.

The H5N1 is still new to us and is still deadly to us and its now an imminent danger to all humanity.

If it goes the way of former pandemics we could easily see 40% of the population get infected and most will die.

It has to be close now so watch the headlines.

When we see a person-to-person trasmission cluster of 100 people - SHUT THE GATES

If its in birds and no symptoms appear then we dont know where it is

   I agree with you we need to continue to prepare.
And be alert. CDC posted another death in Indonesia today. That is alarming to me. It just isn't slowing down there.


PrepGirl

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>



Please note that these diseases shown below were swirling around in great numbers during the 1918 Flu Pandemic.

We see these diseases much less frequently these days....

so....  they are not around to co-infect us along with the flu.

People who die/died of the flu may often have these other diseases as well.
Who dies?   mainly children of the ...childhood diseases ages....
teens also...ie. any school/college age children...crowded situations, military.

Most of the small number of deaths from H5N1 are from direct contact with birds.

These 2 pandemics shown below did not undo the world.

There are currently 4 pandemics going around our world...

We are not undone by these 4 pandemics.

Mosquitoes/ticks will continue to be a problem as disease carriers in warmer climates.
................................................





thanks to Wikipedia...

Asian flu (H2N2)
...........................

The "Asian Flu" was a category 2 flu pandemic outbreak of avian influenza that originated in China in early 1956 lasting until 1958. It originated from mutation in wild ducks combining with a pre-existing human strain.[3] The virus was first identified in Guizhou.[4] It spread to Singapore in February 1957, reached Hong Kong by April, and US by June. Death toll in the US was approximately 69,800.[3] Estimates of worldwide infection rate varies widely depending on source, ranging from 1 million to 4 million.


Hong Kong Flu  (H3N2)
......................

The Hong Kong Flu was a category 2 flu pandemic caused by a strain of H3N2 descended from H2N2 by antigenic shift, in which genes from multiple subtypes reassorted to form a new virus. The Hong Kong Flu pandemic of 1968 and 1969 infected an estimate 500,000 with a low death rate[2][3]. In the US, 50 million were infected with an estimated 33,000 deaths[4].


Russian flu   A/USSR/90/77 (H1N1)
..........................................................

The Russian flu was a 1977-1978 flu epidemic caused by strain Influenza A/USSR/90/77 (H1N1). It infected mostly children and young adults under 23 because a similar strain was prevalent in 1947-57, causing most adults to have substantial immunity. Some have called it a flu pandemic but because it only affected the young it is not considered a true pandemic. The virus was included in the 1978-1979 flu vaccine.[4][5][6][7]

...................................


Because of better healthcare, sanitation, living conditions and education...


And vaccines....

that were developed after 1918... (most were) see below>


A large problem of deaths due to flu are...  the complication of

co-infections.

If a person is ill or has been ill and the flu hits, it's not good news.

Think of all the germs going around in schools and job sites.

A double whammy is more likely.


Many who died of SARS had CO-INFECTIONS.


Flu Pandemics since 1918 have not been able to couple with many of the following
(mainly childhood) illnesses.

...............................


http://209.85.165.104/search?q=cache:7bXayS6RZCsJ:www.cispimmunize.org/fam/ImpactofVaccines.pdf+years+childhood+vaccines+developed&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=2&gl=us

.....

I
MPACT OF
V
ACCINES
O
VER
T
IME
– A
BRIEF OVERVIEW
Y
EAR
V
ACCINE
D
EVELOPED
&/
OR
L
ICENSED
D
ISEASE
/
V
ACCINE
D
ISEASE
I
MPACT
B
EFORE
I
NTRODUCTION OF
V
ACCINE
(U
NITED
S
TATES
)
I
MPACT OF
V
ACCINE
I
N
US


1796 (not widely used
before 1900)

Smallpox

In 1900, 21,064 smallpox cases
reported; 894 deaths
Smallpox Eradicated in 1977
1923


Diphtheria

In 1920, 147,991 diphtheria
cases reported; 13,170 deaths
1 case reported in 2002
1926


Pertussis

In 1922, 107,473 cases
reported; 5099 deaths
9,771 cases reported in 2002
1927



Tetanus

Between 1922-1926, an average
1,314 cases of tetanus per year
25 cases reported in US in
2002
1945 (not routinely
used until 2004)


Influenza
N/A
N/A
1955



Polio


Between 1951-1954, an average
16,316 paralytic polio cases
reported; 1,879 deaths
Polio caused by wild-type
viruses eliminated from the
Western Hemisphere in 1991
1963


Measles


Between 1958-1962, an average
503,282 measles cases reported;
432 deaths
44 cases reporting in 2002 1967


Mumps


In 1964, 212,000 mumps cases
reported.
270 cases reported in 2002
1969



Rubella


In 1964-1965, there was an
epidemic of rubella that resulted
in an average 20,000 infants
born with Congenital Rubella
Syndrome, with 2,100 neonatal
deaths and 11,250 miscarriages.
Rubella declared no longer
endemic in US in 2005
1977 (polysaccharide)
2000 (conjugate –
childhood vaccine)



Pneumococcal In 1998-1999, rate of invasive

pneumococcal disease in
children was 188 per 100,000
population
Disease rates have declined
70-80% among children
younger than 2 years of age,
compared to 1998-1999.
1982


Hepatitis B

22,177 cases reported in 1982
7,996 cases reported in 2002
1985

Haemophilus
influenzae type
b (Hib)
Before vaccine, an estimated
20,000 cases of Hib reported
each year; leading cause of
childhood bacterial meningitis
and postnatal mental retardation
34 cases of Hib disease
reported among children less
than 5 years in 2005
1995


Varicella
120,624 cases reported in 1995 22,841 cases reported in

.....................................



Annharra

source...

http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=de&u=http://www.aerztezeitung.de/docs/2006/01/13/005a0401.asp%3Fcat%3D/medizin/grippe/vogelgrippe&sa=X&oi=translate&resnum=8&ct=result&prev=/search%3Fq%3Dh7n7%2Bbremen%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DG

“H5N1 is not the only Pandemie candidate”

Virologe does not see dramatic development by bird flu in Turkey/H7N7-Viren likewise dangerously

ROTTERDAM (courage). Even if in Turkey in the meantime 17 humans are heavily with the bird flu virus H5N1 gotten sick, that does not increase the danger a flu Pandemie with humans dramatically. Whereupon the Virologe professor Albert Osterhaus refers to. But each illness with humans is for the H5N1-Viren a new chance to adapt to humans.

Danger of epidemics by chickens? Not necessarily - which virus releases the next flu Pandemie, nobody can know. Photo: strip packing

Osterhaus is one the world-wide most well-known virus hunter and flu expert. The Virologe from Rotterdam in the Netherlands had already warned of the danger of a Pandemie among humans by bird flu viruses, to hardly hear when of it in the media and it was to be read and it pointed out again and again that Europe is badly prepared for such Pandemie.

But at the latest after the outbreak of the bird flu with poultry in Turkey the Pandemie danger is a large medium topic, and Osterhaus tries now rather to calm down: Already 17 humans at bird flu are get sick, with altogether over 150 got sick world-wide are this however a limited rise, said Osterhaus in the discussion with the “physicians newspaper” in Turkey.

“The risk does not increase dramatically that it comes, said to people transmission of the virus” the Virologe. However each bird flu illness is with humans a new chance for the virus to adapt to humans and be transferred like a normal flu. “Each rise of the illness numbers with humans is therefore bad message”.

H5N1 had many chances to adapt to humans

But the bird flu virus H5N1 circulating at present is real the most probable candidate for a Pandemie virus? Finally the virus draws already for nine years by Asia, probably had several millions humans thereby contact without it came to an adjustment.

	“None knows, how long it lasts, until an animal virus adapts to humans”
	Professor Albert Osterhaus Virologe and Influenza expert

“So one can also argue. Actually the virus had many opportunities to adapt in such a way that it will transfer from humans to humans, which did not happen so far however. I therefore hold it for possible that completely different Influenza virus releases, said the next Pandemie” Osterhaus. “However we do not have notion, how long it lasts, until an animal influenza virus adapts to humans. Upon it can be speculated only with difficulty.”

If it applies that on a heavy bird flu illness by H5N1 with humans several hundred mild running illnesses come, like it a new study suggests (we reported), then is this likewise a reference on it that the Pandemie potential of H5N1 is perhaps nevertheless not so large, as before accepted, so Osterhaus, because then would have itself more humans than so far admits still much infected with the animal virus, without it came to an adjustment at humans.

The Virologe does not want to overestimate the study results however: In the work it was reported that during a bird flu outbreak in Viet Nam with humans with direct contact to chickens gotten sick increases flu symptoms arose. Since there were however no serologischen investigations, one could not say whether these humans were gotten sick with a mildly running bird flu actually.

Osterhaus does not want to wait however, until it actually comes to a Pandemie, it wants to decode already before, which animal influenza virus has the ability to adapt to humans. Like that attempts are planned to infect in the laboratory cells with human flu viruses and H5N1 at the same time in order to look whether from it new viruses dangerous for humans develop - exactly that is feared, if humans infect themselves at the same time with H5N1 and seasonal flu viruses. Osterhaus is missing in addition however still another high safety laboratory.

Also H7N7 is considered as a candidate to a flu Pandemie

In the meantime it researches at another bird flu virus: H7N7 released 2003 in the Netherlands an outbreak under poultry, with which also scarcely 90 humans infected themselves - usually they had only mild symptoms. But a veterinary surgeon died to it, and it obviously came also to a people to thrust bearing. The Virologe examined the virus, which one had isolated with the veterinary surgeon, and found some characteristics, which made it particularly aggressive. These realizations are to help to recognize potential Pandemie viruses in time.

TO THE PERSON Professor Albert Osterhaus is considered as one of the most successful virus hunters. The director/conductor of the Virologi institute of the Erasmus university in Rotterdam recognized in the 80's that the seal dying in the North Sea was caused by a Staupevirus. Its laboratory was 2004 involved in the identification of the Sars virus: Osterhaus proved that a certain Coronavirus is only in addition able to cause with apes Sars. Osterhaus was it also, the H5N1-Virus 1997 as a disease cause with humans identified, who died 1997 in Hong Kong with a bird flu outbreak. The 1948 in the Netherlands born animal physician and Virologe leads at the Erasmus university in the meantime 100 persons a strong team. He is a director of the Netherlands WHO Influenzazentrums as well as the global WHO maser Referenzlabors. The researcher possesses besides two biotechnology enterprises. (courage)

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when this thing first broke - in Honkers in 1996 - all birds were culled

Please disregard my question. If I had read the complete thread I would have understood. Thanks.