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Commentary

Bird Flu in Wild Birds in North America in 2005

Recombinomics Commentary
May 11, 2006

Recent reports of failures to detect H5N1 bird flu in Britain and Africa have raised serious concerns about collection and testing methodologies. In each report, about 7500 birds were tested and from the 15,000 birds, a single H5N1 positive was detected in Scotland. The DEFRA screening in Britain listed the date and number of birds tested. Only two birds were positive for low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) and attempts to isolate virus failed from those two birds failed. These data raised concerns about storage methodologies, which allow the swabs to dry out, reducing the likelihood of detection or isolation of HPAI or LPAI. The report from Africa does not mention LPAI detection, creating significant credibility issues.

Failure to detect or isolate LPAI is of concern because avian influenza (bird flu) is common in wild birds. LPAI H5 was readily detected throughout southern Canada when August, 2005 collections from young mallards were tested.

Listed below are a number of LPAI isolates from North America collected between August and December 2005 that are being submitted by Ohio State for whole genome sequencing at The Institute for Genome Research as part of the NIAID flu blueprint project.. Although it remains unclear why H5 was not identified in the United States, because many of the H5 positive birds in Canada would have been expected to migrate into the United States, the listing below does highlight the fact that LPAI in wild birds in 2005 is common.

A listing of LPAI detected in the 7500 wild birds in Africa would be useful.


A/pintail/Alaska/20/2005(H12N5)

A/pintail/Alaska/49/2005(H3N8)

A/pintail/Alaska/53/2005(H3N6)

A/pintail/Alaska/99/2005(H4N6)

A/pintail/Alaska/102/2005(H12N5)

A/pintail/Alaska/211/2005(H3N8)

A/pintail/Alaska/246/2005(H8N4)

A/mallard/Alaska/256/2005(H3N8)

A/pintail/Alaska/279/2005(H3N8)

A/pintail/Alaska/310/2005(H4N6)

A/mallard/Alaska/312/2005(H12N5)

A/pintail/Alaska/314/2005(H8N4)

A/pintail/Alaska/315/2005(H3N8)

A/mallard/Alaska/708/2005(H8N4)

A/mallard/Alaska/715/2005(H3N8)

A/pintail/Alaska/779/2005(H3N8)

A/longtail duck/Maryland/295/2005(N8)

A/common scoter/Maryland/297/2005(H3N8)

A/white winged scoter/Maryland/301/2005(H11N9)

A/environment/Ohio/1007/2005(H9N2)

A/mallard/Delaware/418/2005(H7N3)

A/longtail duck/Maryland/291/2005(H3N8)

A/snow goose/Maryland/353/2005(H6N1)

A/snow goose/Maryland/364/2005(H6N1)

A/snow goose/Maryland/410/2005(H6N1)





Commentary

Widespread H5N1 Bird Flu Migration in Western Europe

Recombinomics Commentary
May 11, 2006

Letschin / Maerkisch-Oderland / BB* / White Stork / 3 May 2006
Harburg / Danube-Ries / Bavaria / Swan / 2 May 2006
Molfsee / Rendsburg-Eckernfoerde / SH** / Crested Grebe / 2 May 2006
Denklingen / Landsberg on the Lech / Bavaria / Merganser / 28 Apr 2006
Parkstetten / Straubing (town) / Bavaria / Mute Swan / 28 Apr 2006
Kirchroth-Nierachdorf / Straubing (town) / Bavaria / Mute Swan / 26 Apr 2006
Kirchroth-Muenster / Town of Straubing / Bavaria / Mute Swan / 26 Apr 2006
Letschin / Maerkisch-Oderland / BB / White Stork / 26 Apr 2006
Bautzen (Neumalsitz) / Bautzen / Saxony / Wild Duck / 26 Apr 2006


The above list of wild birds in Germany recently testing positive for H5N1 bird flu provides additional positive data that H5N1 is widespread throughout Europe.

The list of H5N1 positive birds in Denmark, between March 14 and May 2

26 Tufted ducks (_Aythya fuligula_)
6 Common buzzards (_Buteo buteo_)
4 Mute swans (_Cygnus olor_)
3 Whooper swans (_Cygnus cygnus_)
1 Peregrine falcon (_Falco peregrinus_)
1 Rough-legged buzzard (_Buteo lagopus_)
1 Greylag goose (_Anser anser_)
1 Great crested goose (_Podiceps cristatus_)

provides more evidence of H5N1 migrating through Europe, and is in marked contrast to the negative data announced by the Wetlands International, who collected 7500 samples in Africa and failed to find one H5N1 positive bird. There was no mention of the detection of 100’s or 1000’s of low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI), which would have been expected from testing 7500 wild bird samples.

The results in Africa were similar to the DEFRA results in Britain where a similar number of birds were tested and a single H5N1 positive was found. Genetic information for two LPAI was found, but no virus was isolated. The failure to detect or isolate LPAI in 7500 collections over multiple months indicates the collection and/or testing of the samples was fatally flawed, generating many more false negatives than true positives.

Avian influenza is common in wild birds. Studies in Canada found H5 in 24% of healthy young mallards collected in British Columbia in August, 2005. Low path H5 (H5N1, H5N2, H5N3, H5N9) was also found in other Candian provinces tested. There are 16 H serotypes and 9 N serotypes, creating 144 possible serotypes. All known serotypes have been isolated from wild birds, which generally have an LPAI positive rate of 1-10%. 2005 LPAI from wild birds in Alaska have also been collected. Negative data on H5N1 from thousands of wild bird samples are meaningless without the detection of 100’s or 1000’s of LPAI to validate the collection / screening process.

The positive data above from Germany and Denmark, as well as additional countries in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, leaves little doubt that wild birds in all areas were H5N1 positive in the winter, and wild birds are transporting and transmitting H5N1 in the spring. Recent outbreaks of H5N1 in three regions in Russia and two counties in Qinghai Province in China provide additional positive data for H5N1 migration through several continents.

The negative data cited by wildlife conservation groups assisting FAO remains highly suspect, and these groups have been citing their negative data on H5N1 since they conducted tests in Mongolia last August, where H5N1 was also confirmed. Thus, in 12 months of generating thousands of negative data points, they have yet to publish the 100’s or 1000;s of LPAI that would have been detected if appropriate collection and testing methods were used. The publication of the negative data, without appropriate controls, by the New York Times / International Herald Tribune and National Geographic remains highly misleading to an uneducated and misinformed readership.




Commentary

H5N1 Bird Flu in Poultry in Novosibirsk Russia

Recombinomics Commentary
May 10, 2006

Bird flu has been registered in the Kochkovo district, the Novosibirsk region, Siberia, the head of the Russian agriculture watchdog, Sergei Dankvert, told.

"H5N1 virus has been found in non-vaccinated poultry in private households of the Reshety village," he said.

So far the flu has killed 64 birds. The village has 35,000 poultry, Dankvert said.

The detection of H5N1 in domestic poultry in Novosibirsk suggests the H5N1 outbreaks in Russia will be more severe this year than last year's outbreaks in Novosibirsk were reported in July, following the massive outbreak at Qinghai Lake in May. The H5N1 in southern Siberia lasted throughout the summer and declined when the wild waterfowl began to fly south.

This year, in addition to H5N1 in domestic poultry described above, there have been reports of wild waterfowl with H5 antibodies in Altai as well as northwestern Russia. H5N1 has also been reported rfecently in two counties in Qinghai Province.

As H5N1 migrates back to Russia from Africa, Europe, the Middle East, India, and China, more H5N1 infections are expected.




Commentary

Suspect Sumatra H5N1 Cluster Raises Pandemic Concerns

Recombinomics Commentary
May 10, 2006

Last casualties who died were Ana Br Ginting, the woman was 29 years old, the citizen Street Veteran, Kabanjahe, the capital of the Karo Regency. He died around struck 05.00 WIB, during in the maintenance in the central Public Hospital (RSUP) Adam the Owner, Street Bungalow Medan.

Two casualties beforehand that died was Roy Karo-Karo, 19 years. He
Died on May 9 2006, now his mother Praise Br Ginting died last May 4. Both of them were expected strong terjangkit the bird flu virus.

Now casualties that still was treated at this time, numbering five people. Four people that was treated in isolation space of RSUP Adam the Owner, respectively Jones Ginting (25), Bonny Karo-karo (18) and Renaita Tarigan (1.8 years), as well as Obviously Ulina Ginting (8).

While Rafael Ginting, 8 years, was treated in RS Elisabeth, Street Imam Breakingprep Bonjol Medan.

The above detail on the suspected H5N1 bird flu fatalities raises additional pandmeic concerns. The mother died on May 4 followed the death of her son on May 9 and another family member on May 10. The delay of 5-10 days between the index case and family members is the hallmark of person-to-person transmission of H5N1. In Indonesia, as many as 2/3 of cases are linked to family clusters and the vast majority of the clusters have the 5-10 day gap.

However, in the past familial clusters were smaller, generally invoving 2 or 3 people. This cluster has 8 family members who have died or are hospitalized with bird flu symptoms, signaling a more efficient transmission of H5N1.

H5N1 has been present in Indonesia since 2003, but the first reported human cases were reported last year. If the current cluster is positive for H5N1, they will be the largest cluster in Indonesia and the largest confirmed cluster if all test positive.

In any event, the large number of family members, ranging in age from 40 to 1.5 and the differences in onset dates suggests this cluster is cause for concern.




Commentary

Suspect H5N1 Bird Flu Cluster in North Sumatra Indonesia

Recombinomics Commentary
May 10, 2006

Roy Karokaro, 19 years, died to struck 11 days on last Tuesday (9/5).
Roy was treated in RSU Adam the Owner since last Monday night.
While Anta Beru Ginting, 29 years, died on Wednesday (10/5) at dawn earlier.

Roy Karokaro, Anta Beru Ginting as well as his five relatives was the reconciliation patient from RSU Kabanjahe, the Karo Land Regency.
Five relatives at this time still were treated intensive in the same hospital, namely Jones Ginting, Boni Karokaro and a pre-schooler be aged one half of the year, Renaita Beru Tarigan.

Whereas two last patients who were treated were Rafael Ginting and Obviously Beru Ginting.

All this patient had the family's direct relations and lived in the close house.

The above description of a large familial cluster in North Sumatra, Indonesia is cause for concern. Other reports indicated the mother has also died at an earlier date. The relatives have H5N1 bird flu symptoms and the extended time period for symptoms and admissions is cause for concern.

The number of fatalities has now grown to three and the condition of additional family members continues to deteriorate.

Familial clusters of H5N1 in Indonesia have been noted previously, but this is the largest suspected cluster reported to date.

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Commentary

H5N1 Bird Flu Confirmed in Patient and Poultry in Djibouti

Recombinomics Commentary
May 11, 2006

The health ministry said that virology tests from samples of an infected person taken last month were positive for the virulent strain of the flu virus, which had also affected three domestic fowl.

"Tests from a person suffering from flu-like symptoms on April 27 were positive for the disease," it said. "Three domestic hens were also affected by the virus."

The ministry said the tests were carried out with the collaboration of the World Health Organisation at a laboratory in Cairo.

The above confirmation of H5N1 bird flu in a patient in Djibouti raise additional concerns about the spread of H5N1 in people and poultry, and the failure to detect H5N1 in adjacent countries. Wild bird die-offs in adjacent southwest Yemen have been reported many times as have outbreaks in Ethiopia, Somalia, and Kenya. H5N1 has been repeatedly denied, but H5N1 confirmation in Sudan, Egypt, Jordan, Israel, Iraq, and Iran raises significant credibility issues.

Similar credibility issues have become obvious due to reports from wildlife and wetland conservation groups as well as DEFRA. The groups, like countries adjacent to Djibouti have repeated cited negative bird flu data with no positive LPAI results to validate the collection and testing methodologies employed.

These groups then use te false negatives to deny the transmission and transport of H5N1 by wild birds, although dozens of countries in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa have reported H5N1 for the first time. Included in the list of countries in Africa that confirmed H5N1 are Egypt, Sudan, Nigeria, Niger, Cameroon, Burkina Faso, and Ivory Coast.

Commentary

Bird Flu in Wild Birds in Canada

Recombinomics Commentary
May 12, 2006

Specialists from Wetlands International, who were deputized by the Food and Agriculture Organization, sampled 7,500 African wild birds last winter in their search for the disease. They found no H5N1, Mr. Hagemeijer said.

The above comments and similar remarks by various wildlife and wetlands conservation groups has been widely quoted as evidence that wild waterfowl play a minor role in the spread of H5N1. H5N1 bird flu was largely limited to China and countries in east and southeast Asia prior to the massive outbreak at Qinghai Lake last May.

After May, 2005 the Qinghai strain of H5N1 spread to Russia, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, and a number of countries in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. The spread followed migratory bird flyways, but comments by bird conservation groups for the past 12 months have minimized the role of migratory birds.

The chief arguments have been tightly linked to negative data generated by these groups or other government surveillance groups like DEFRA. These groups claim to have screened thousands or tens of thousands of wild birds and H5N1 is reported as non-existent or minimal.

Negative data however, provides little useful information unless it is accompanied by positive data demonstrating that the collection and testing procedures are valid. The positive control for such data is low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI), which is common in wild waterfowl. The data from DEFRA indicated that only two birds were positive for LPAI, and virus was not isolated from either. These data cast significant doubt on the DEFRA claim that only one bird of 7500 tested was positive for H5N1.

Canada has an ongoing avian influenza surveillance program and results are publicly available. The data for H5, H7, and avian influenza of all serotypes is available by location or species, and the data clearly show why the negative data by DEFRA, government agencies, and bird conservation groups are highly suspect.

In the Canadian study, bird flu was found in 1605 of the 4673 wild birds tested. This is in marked contrast to 3 positives in 7500 birds tested by DEFRA. The wildlife groups have not reported any LPAI detection in their testing. In the Canadian study, LPAI was detected in all species in which 25 or more were tested as indicated below.

These data raise serious questions about the credibility of the negative data on H5N1 in wild birds.

Below are number of birds positive for bird flu over number of birds tested (species with >25 birds tested)

American Black Duck    98/297

American Crow               4/51

American Wigeon          33/101

Blue-winged Teal          107/437

Gadwell                             1/36

Green-winged Teal        51/225

Hooded Merganser            7/26

Mallard                          1149/2612

Northern Pintail               26/135

Redhead                            19/225

Ring-necked Duck              8/51

Rock Dove                           2/33

Wood Duck                      66/104

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05..._Medan_12.html
Commentary
Twelve Suspect H5N1 Patients Hospitalized in Medan Indonesia

Recombinomics Commentary
May 12, 2006

While 12 assumption patients of other bird flu were still being treated intensive in RSUP Adam the Owner.

Worry with the spreading of this deadly virus, the Government of the North Sumatran Province instructed the Health Service of the Karo Land to sterilise the area that it was suspected became the source of the spread.
The sterilisation was carried out in a radius of one kilometre.
Officially North Sumatran Livestock Breeding carried out the vaccination and spraying in the house environment of the casualties.

The above translation indicates 12 more suspected cases of H5N1 bird flu are being treated in intensive care at RSUP Adam, where five family members have already died. This may be why the two other hospitalized family members left the public hospital and are now in a private hospital, RS Elizabeth.

12 additional suspect cases are cause for concern. The first fatality was on May 4, followed by deaths on May 9, 10 and two deaths on May 12.

More information on the 12 hospitalized patients would be useful.

cottonwood, at the end of every Recombinomics Commentary is a Media Link. I'm sorry I haven't included them in my posts. I will do so from now on. The site is: http://www.recombinomics.com/whats_new.html.
You can scroll to the bottom of each commentary and hit Media Link, then scroll down to the bottom and he will have his source link. Once again, sorry! Thanks for pointing it out.

http://www.recombinomics.com/whats_new.html
Commentary

H5N1 Confirmed in Indonesian Sumatra Cluster

Recombinomics Commentary
May 12, 2006

the Department of the decisive Health of four citizens of the Subdistrict of three bows, the Karo Regency, North Sumatra, was infected by bird flu.That was justified by Pengendalian Breakingprep Penyakit Director General and Department of Health environmental Sanitation, I Nyoman Kandun in Jakarta, on Friday (12/5).Kandun said the Department of Health Body of Health Research And Development checked five from from eight cases

The above report confirms H5N1 in the Karo cluster. Since there are already five fatalities, this cluster accounts for the largest number of H5N1 fatalities and is cause for concern

At least 2 additional family members are hospitalized as are 12 other suspect cases.

Media Link

Map

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05130601/H5N1_Ukraine_Return.html
Commentary

H5N1 Bird Flu Returns to Ukraine

Recombinomics Commentary
May 13, 2006

In the cormorants, that perished near Sivasha (Genicheskiy region of Kherson region), was discovered the virus of the bird influenza of sub-type H5.

Approximately 50 dead birds were discovered in that region at the end of April, reported on 12 May at the session of extraordinary anti-epizootic commission with oblgosadministratsii the chief for the administration for veterinary medicine in the region Sergey Kolomiyets.


The above comments describe the return of H5N1 to the Ukraine. Ukraine was another European country reporting H5N1 in 2005 as wild birds brought H5N1 into the area. As H5N1 migrates back toward the north H5N1 was reintroduced into the Ukraine. The same re-introduction has been noted for Romania, Russia, and China.


Media Link

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In the WHO's update in March, wasn't 20 the magic number?  Something about it could be still contained up to 20.  So let's see first 8, now an additional 12.  This doesn't sound good.

If they only have 21 days to contain the pandemic and it takes almost two weeks to confirm bird flu, that doesn't give anyone alot of time to react.

pugmom wrote: yeah, and another "magic" number coming out of computer simulations is 21--that is, they will only have 21 days to contain any pandemic.  (I think I remembered that number right.)

Thanks Commonground for the exceptional coverage, we look forward to your next post.

Yes, Thank you Commonground for putting all of these together in one place.

Nice test, but maybe Too Late!  With the budget cuts for the CDC here in the USA, and general funding problems for the international efforts, labs may not even have been able to prepare orders to get this test yet.

Hi there Ruth!!  Your post that 21 days doesn't leave very much time to contain pandemic after the week or so it takes to check specimens, is exactly what the experts said in the article I read.  Especially since most of the patients have been ill for up to a week before seeking treatment.  Then, extra time needed if you want positive confirmation by a WHO lab, then time to fly everyone in and start people on Tamiflu, etc, etc.  Plus, they have to do their epidemiological interviews and find out all the contacts.  Just too much!  Catcha again when PM's are up.   pugmom

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05140602/H5N1_Sumatra_Fatal_6.html


Commentary

Fatal H5N1 Cases in North Sumatra Increase to Six

Recombinomics Commentary
May 14, 2006

An Indonesian toddler who had tested positive for bird flu according to local tests died on Sunday, a senior health ministry official said.

The 18-month boy's blood sample has been sent to a World Health Organisation-affiliated laboratory in Hong Kong for confirmation.

The above comments indicate the sixth family member has died. Local reports had reported the death on Friday, but reports had been conflicting. The above new report confirms that the patient has died and has tested positive for H5N1. The six deaths from one family is the most H5N1 deaths reported for a familial cluster.

Currently two other family members with symptoms are still alive. One, Jonnes Ginting, is hospitalized, while another, Obvious Ulina Ginting, is being treated at home in Karo.

Media Link

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Commonground,

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05140604/H5N1_Jakarta_Pandemic.html
Commentary

Suspect H5N1 Patients in Jakarta Increase Pandemic Concerns

Recombinomics Commentary
May 14, 2006

Three patients were treated in intensive maintenance space (ICU), one him again in the Intensive Cempaka Maintenance. The patient beinisial "B", was four years old, was treated in ICU since May 11. "B" became the patient with suspect bird flu because of having his family's member with initials "M." (43 years) beforehand has suffered avian influenza. "M." became the patient suspect bird flu/because of having his property poultry that died. "M. was" treated" in ICU RSPI Sulianti Saroso since last May 8. Moreover, the patient with initials "Mr" (12 years) also was treated in ICU. "Mr" it was suspected suffered bird flu because his neighbour maintained the poultry. Now the newest patient, the man had the initials "H" (27 years), was treated in Intensive Cempaka Maintenance space. "H" it was suspected suffered bird flu because of maintaining the poultry.

The above translation describes additional suspect H5N1 bird flu cases in Jakarta. Included is yet another familial cluster (between "B" and "M"). These are in addition to the family of eight in North Sumatra where six have died, and five are H5N1 positive.

There is also a health care worker with symptoms as well as 12 additional suspect cases who are hospitalized in Medan.

These additional cases increase pandemic concerns,

Media Link

If I've said it once, I've said it a hundred times...

God help us all!
Peggy

WHO Confirms H5N1 Cluster In Indonesia Recombinomics Commentary May 17, 2006 "There are six confirmations. One from Surabaya and five from Medan. One from Medan is still alive," said Sari Setiogi, the WHO's Indonesia spokeswoman. An outbreak of H5N1 bird flu involving up to eight members of a family at Medan in North Sumatra province has worried health agencies around the world but a Health Ministry official said on Wednesday it was not a case of human-to-human transmission. The WHO confirmation of 5 Medan cases is not a surprise.  Virtually all cases that test positive in Indonesia are confirmed by the WHO associated  lab in Hong Kong.  There are eight members in the cluster and six have died.  In local testing, it appears that only one of the eight has tested negative, although false negatives are common.  Since one of the surviving members of the clusters has tested positive, the size of the cluster is at least seven members, including six fatalities. The disease onset date of the index case is April 27, indicating that this cluster, like the majority of H5N1 clusters is another example of human-to-human transmission.  Local media has mentioned a family gathering, but this is yet another mechanism for the creation of familial clusters.  This is similar to the large cluster in Turkey, which was precede by a family gathering between cousins.  The index case had developed symptoms prior to the gathering, and many family members developed symptoms after the gathering. Although these large clusters have not generated a pandemic thus far, the large clusters have demonstrated a more efficient transmission to humans, and the presence of an index case with symptoms strongly implicates human-to-human transmission. The first H5N1 confirmed case in Indonesia was also a cluster.  The sequence of the HA from the father in that cluster has been made public, and it has a novel cleavage site (RESRRKKR).  Although these have now been many sequences from bird isolates released, none have had this cleavage site, nor have any other HA sequences at GenBank.  The failure to release additional human sequences raises concerns that these sequences do not support a poultry origin, but such data is being withheld. WHO maintains a large private database and those sequences should be released immediately. Media Link Map http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05170601/H5N1_Indonesia_WHO.html

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05170603/H5N1_Bekasi_Grow.html

Commentary

Bekasi H5N1 Cluster Continues to Grow

Recombinomics Commentary
May 17, 2006

A 12-year-old Indonesian boy died of bird flu four days ago in Jakarta's eastern suburb of Bekasi, a health ministry official said on Wednesday, citing the results of local tests.

Blood samples have been sent to a World Health Organisation-affiliated laboratory in Hong Kong for confirmation, spokeswoman Lily Sulistyowati said.

The confirmation of H5N1 bird flu in another Bekasi resident is cause for concern. Almost all cases that are H5N1 positive in Jakarta are confirmed by Hong Kong. Recently four suspect cases in Jakarta were described. However, the cluster of cases in Bekasi has been noted recently as well as last year (see October map).

This geographical cluster is cause for concern. The Medan cluster indicates H5N1 in Indonesia is becoming more efficient at infecting humans, and the continuing confirmation of Bekasi fatalities suggest transmission in the Jakarta area is also becoming more efficient.

Media Link

Map

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05170605/H5N1_Indonesia_Novel.html

Commentary

Novel Human H5N1in Indonesia Raises Pandemic Concerns

Recombinomics Commentary
May 17, 2006

The recent large cluster in Indonesia has refocused attention on human-to-human transmission and the novel cleavage site in human HA H5N1. Although cleavage sites can change, there has been no evidence for a species specific change.

The first H5N1 isolated in Asia in 1996 in the Guangdong goose had the highly pathogenic sequences of RERRRKKR. That sequence has found in the human cases in 1997 as well as most human and animal isolates in Asia. In 2005 milder cases in northern Vietnam had been noted and those cases had lost an R in the cleavage site, which was then RERRKKR. Recently, China released human sequence data and those sequences were closely related to a Fujian strain, which was missing a K, giving the sequence RERRRKR. However, that cleavage site had been found in a duck in Fujian province and had been in bird H5N1 sequences dating back to 2003. The Qinghai strain of H5N1 has a unique sequence of GERRRKKR, which is found in virtually all of the Qinghai isolates, including human isolates from Iraq and Egypt.

Thus, although the cleavage can change, the change is typically found in both mammals and birds. The bird H5N1 sequences from Indonesia have the common sequence of RERRRKKR and the recent sequences from Indonesia span isolates from 2003 to 2005. However, the human isolate from 2005 has the novel sequence RESRRKKR. This sequence is not found in any of the avian H5N1 Indonesian sequences or any other H5N1 sequence at GenBank. However, the one sequence is not definitive because there are some novel sequences that have not become widespread and may lack significance.

However, a report that a cat sequence from Indonesia has the same change is cause for concern, as is the comment that many additional human sequences from Indonesia also have the same change. A large number of human isolates with RESRRKKR, in the absence of any avian sequences with RESRRKKR, would indicate that birds were not a source of the human H5N1 infections.

These data raise concerns that the human sequences are due to infection by H5N1 from other humans or other mammals. Since there have been over 30 confirmed cases of human H5N1 in Indonesia, the WHO private database would have the answer to the frequency of human H5N1 with the novel cleavage site.

If that data validates the comment that several human and cats sequences have the novel site, then the claims that the human cases were due to poultry infections would be suspect and the limited testing, which requires association with dying poultry should be expanded to those who have bird flu symptoms, but lack a poultry connection.

Media Link

Map

PonyGirl - my guess as to the motive for secrecy would be money.

As horrible as the prospect of a pandemic is, there is a lot of money in it for whoever develops the vaccine first.

Just my opinion but greed usually wins over concern for others.

oknut & fiddlerdave2 are right, it's about patents.