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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic since 2005; Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic Discussion Forum.

scenario's

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 02 2021 at 10:06pm

EdwinSM, staff most likely will become a major problem in this coming global third wave. With new variants spreading like wildfire and highly infectious getting HCW-ers NOT infected is getting harder...

DJ,

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U3otWaBrvEc[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U3otWaBrvEc Dr. John Campbell on "how well vaccines protect also against variants" as far as can be known...

Some problems; 

1-You need a good strategy. In Germany 65+ and HCW-ers can get vaccinated with AZ/O but only 10% of them turn up...In some area's they now allow other groups to get vaccinated as well so vaccinating-capacity will be used. (I live not that far from the German border-if I could now get an AZ/O vaccine in Germany I would be on my way...) 

2-Still not enough vaccines in many places-"next month will be better" the EMA will look at J&J march 11...With other Pharma companies increasing production of accepted vaccines (and stopping sometimes their own developing) there will be more vaccines soon. With this crisis worsening high speed the EU may "beg" for Russian and Chinese vaccins-even if they also offer limited protection after weeks against variants

3-Because all indications are that at least some variants (Cal20/SA/P1-Brazil) may evade vaccination on a major scale. Vaccinations may come to late to stop a third-far worser-wave-worldwide.

With many states in the US reopening, a very likely increase of international travel, growing pressure in many countries to lift NPI while all kinds of variants are spreading the outlook is bad !

-A look at [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ; Worldwide the numbers are not yet at record numbers-they soon will be. In highest cases list; Brazil #1 due to P1 variant "turning all of Brazil into a big Manaus" ICU-capacity running out...France at #3 with UK, SA variants spreading-even with strong NPI...Czechia a total disasterzone, at #18 Israel still 5260 new cases with a large part of the population supposed to be close to natural- or vaccine-immunity. 

Allthough yesterday I did put a lot of "new variants" news in latest news the problem with getting R0 numbers is that it takes weeks to calculate them. With SA, P1, Cal-20 etc variants in low numbers still the actuel R0-number now could be above 2 without showing up in statistics yet. They hit younger age groups and bring more severe disease-even when "evidence will come later"...it would be a good thing to prepare for the worst...

-Some (alarming) news from flutrackers;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america-aa/south-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/908714-brazil-media-7-day-moving-average-trend-of-covid-19-coronavirus-deaths-up-23-hospital-icu-occupancy-grows-across-the-country-march-2-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america-aa/south-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/908714-brazil-media-7-day-moving-average-trend-of-covid-19-coronavirus-deaths-up-23-hospital-icu-occupancy-grows-across-the-country-march-2-2021 ;Several doctors have reported a surge in younger patients in their Covid-19 wards, many in their 30s and 40s with no underlying health problems. In Peru, some doctors said patients are becoming seriously ill faster, just three or four days after the first symptoms emerged, compared with an average of nine to 14 days last year.

“The virus is behaving differently,” said Rosa Lopez, a doctor in the intensive-care unit at Lima’s Guillermo Almenara Irigoyen Hospital. “It’s really aggressive…the situation is very difficult, really terrible.”

DJ-Some regions have a very young population-statistics can give a false impression. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/national-international-government-ngo-preparation-response/cdc/us-cdc-ebola-information-and-guidances/908715-us-cdc-to-require-airlines-to-collect-contact-information-from-passengers-from-drc-and-guinea-beginning-march-4-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/national-international-government-ngo-preparation-response/cdc/us-cdc-ebola-information-and-guidances/908715-us-cdc-to-require-airlines-to-collect-contact-information-from-passengers-from-drc-and-guinea-beginning-march-4-2021 DJ-It is very likely limited coinfections with Covid-variants AND ebola in a very limited number of people did happen in Africa. If this somehow translates in "new variants" and if those variants are a bigger risk time will tell...You do not want ANY travel from those area's with Ebola-cases...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/908712-cidrap-who-sounds-alarm-over-covid-linked-oxygen-crisis[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/908712-cidrap-who-sounds-alarm-over-covid-linked-oxygen-crisis DJ-There are limits in oxygen-capacity...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/908526-us-california-what-is-going-on-there-is-the-20c-l452r-california-mutant-strain-more-lethal-than-regular-covid-19-february-27-2021?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/908526-us-california-what-is-going-on-there-is-the-20c-l452r-california-mutant-strain-more-lethal-than-regular-covid-19-february-27-2021?view=streamCDPH is also monitoring the variants of interest shown in the table below due to recent evidence that they might be more transmissible. Though they are known by two different lineage names, the B.1.427 and B.1.429 strains are closely related. Together, these two variants have been called the West Coast Strain. Because their clinical and epidemiologic significance is not yet known, CDC and CDPH do not consider them variants of concern at this time.

DJ-CDC not putting Cal-20 variants in their reporting (waiting for more "evidence"...). The SA  (Florida) and P1  (Oregon) variant slowly spreading in the US. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/908681-medrxiv-the-unexpected-dynamics-of-covid-19-in-manaus-brazil-herd-immunity-versus-interventions?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/908681-medrxiv-the-unexpected-dynamics-of-covid-19-in-manaus-brazil-herd-immunity-versus-interventions?view=stream DJ-A study to find out why natural immunity from the march 2020 outbreak seemed to have offered "very limited" protection in december...

[url]https://www.debka.com/mivzak/three-new-york-covid-variants-located-in-israel/[/url] or https://www.debka.com/mivzak/three-new-york-covid-variants-located-in-israel/

Although all three cases of the “New York” covid variant were discovered in a single family, its response to vaccinations is unknown and the frequency of Israeli travel to the US raises questions over the cabinet’s discussion on Tuesday.  They are discussing a proposal to open Ben Gurion airport wide for 3,000 Israelis to land per day from overseas “to exercise their right to vote” in the March 23 election. Public Health Director Dr. Sharon Alray-Preis found this proposal appalling and warned it could imperil all the achievements gained by the mass vaccination project.

She also revealed that the New York strain was not the only new menace around. A still unnamed variant had turned up in the UK, the US, Nigeria and Jordan.

The ministers are confronted with the problem of containing the import of coronavirus and its new strains, so long as most returning Israelis refuse to go into quarantine at the state-run hotels and promise to observe isolation at homed. From Monday, they are being fitted with electronic bracelets attached to a cellphone to monitor their movements.

DJ-The real number of variants/infections will be much higher then those reported. Testing may miss some variants. 

DJ-Is this "the new normal" ? Is this what we may expect for the future ? A never ending race between vaccines and variants, lots of NPI (unless there are elections)...It may be to early to tell. But it simply is not "looking good" at the moment...

Something else [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lKTbhC0s5xg[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lKTbhC0s5xg -history !

When Germany invaded Poland september 1 1939 they hardly had any forces on the "western front". French forces within a week moved into Germany...If they had "gone for a real invasion" history may have looked differently. 

(If in time French (and UK) forces would have moved to reoccupy the Rhineland zone they had under control after World War 1 the German army may have to send much forces from Poland to fight the French/UK. Poland had a better chance at slowing the Germans down-Stalin may have decided not to invade Poland from the east. Or even to offer "help" to Poland ? Most likely France and the UK did not see them ready for war-had false hopes by not invading on a large scale they could avoid a war. Germany was not ready for a two-front war in 1939. The relations with Italy were "not at their best" since Austria became part of Germany. Most likely Italy would try to stay out of a "German war". DJ-Possibly Germany would start talks to avoid a war on their soil-it may not prevent further wars-delayed them...still history would have been different. )

Music; Eddie Cochran-Somethin'Else -1959 [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pCDOHrjPkSQ[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pCDOHrjPkSQ 



We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 03 2021 at 12:59am

DJ,

Some more info,

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/908745-j-coll-physicians-surg-pak-association-of-blood-groups-with-the-severity-and-outcome-of-covid-19-infection-in-children[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/908745-j-coll-physicians-surg-pak-association-of-blood-groups-with-the-severity-and-outcome-of-covid-19-infection-in-children ;The objective of this study was to find out the association of ABO blood groups with the severity and outcome of corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in children. It included all laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 and post-COVID multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C)/ Kawasaki disease (KD) like illness, admitted from March to September, 2020 to The Children's Hospital, Lahore. Out of 66 children, 45 (68.2%) were COVID-19 and 21 (31.8%) MIS-C/KD temporally associated with SARS-C0V-2. The mean age was 7.9 ± 4.2 years. Majority of children had mild to moderate illness 38 (57.6%), while 23 (34.8%) had severe or critical disease. Among all patients, 24 (36.4%) had some underlying comorbidity. Blood group A was significantly associated with severe and critical disease (p=0.030). COVID-19 in children had generally a good outcome, but children with blood group A were more susceptible to severe/critical disease. Key Words: Coronavirus disease 2019, ABO blood groups, Children, Severity, Outcome.

DJ-Covid in children is not taken serious enough-reopening schools may top-priority for economic reasons (parents can go to their jobs).

-Also [url]https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2021/02/articles/miscellaneous/covid-as-a-wake-call/[/url] or https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2021/02/articles/miscellaneous/covid-as-a-wake-call/ and [url]https://humaneherald.org/2020/04/13/coronavirus-top-u-s-and-u-n-science-and-health-advisors-endorse-humane-party-position/[/url] or https://humaneherald.org/2020/04/13/coronavirus-top-u-s-and-u-n-science-and-health-advisors-endorse-humane-party-position/ ; We have to change the way we live-"economic growth is killing us"! Via climate collapse, pandemics, air polution etc. what is that "growth" if we end up in a planet were we can not survive ? 

[url]https://equnews.com/miscellaneous/dossier-rhino-we-must-prevent-this-virus-from-spreading-across-europe[/url] or https://equnews.com/miscellaneous/dossier-rhino-we-must-prevent-this-virus-from-spreading-across-europe see also [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rhinovirus[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rhinovirus DJ-So far rhinovirus in humans only give cold/mild symptoms..but it is one of many diseases that can go "off the road"...

-Some statistics [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant#Statistics ; The SA variant has UK 212, Switzerland 61, France 116, South Korea 4, Sweden 26, NL 87, Israel 444, Belgium 179, Germany 35, US 53, Austria 438, Italy 3, Phillippines 6 cases (as far as detected/reported) 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_P.1#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_P.1#Statistics ; The Brazil-P1 variant has UK 6, Switzerland 14, France 8, South Korea 1, Sweden 4, NL 5, Israel 0 (reported but they have lots of US variants), Belgium 20, Germany 4, US 10, Austria 0 (?), Italy 37, Phillippines 0 (?) reported cases. 

Both groups also will have lots of UK variants, most likely other variants spreading-every hour the risk of coinfection creating new variants is increasing. We may not have the capacity to detect it...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_diseases[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_diseases gives an overview of corona-virus related diseases in the last 100 years-and the animal link. 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus Provides an overview of the virus and its effects on animals (including humans).

DJ-Given the history of corona virus diseases in both humans and animals-the very wide spread of Covid19 and its variants, the exposure of other animals (then humans) to this virus-in combination with how often this virus can change the way it looks/infects species/mutates/recombines can we get out of this pandemic ? 

I think only long term changes to how we organize society may provide some hopefull perspectives. The UK did take two/three months to deal with the UK variant outbreak (about november 2020till february 2021 [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/ and [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_Kingdom#Winter_2020%E2%80%9321:_Immunisation,_new_variant_and_surge[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_Kingdom#Winter_2020%E2%80%9321:_Immunisation,_new_variant_and_surge .

Most of the world will soon be facing a number of variants pushing numbers up-with support for NPI/lockdowns very limited. There will be a far worse global third wave of this pandemic-most likely not only in humans but spreading to other species. This third wave will-just like earlier waves-create its own new variants. 

With the number of infections very likely to be in the billions (in humans and other animals) the basis for a fourth wave is already there. Only very drastic actions may be able to stop a downward spiral. With increasing pressure on healthcare other diseases will further escalate. 

Politics/mass media push the "vaccines will rescue us" story. I would love to believe that story. Also "spring/summer will save us" is a nice story. Even with vaccines production increasing-vaccination to make any difference comes to late. Vaccination itself may bring problems stopping the spread of the-milder-old variant giving room for more risky variants. 

Can we get out of this crisis ? 

1-I think we have to decrease the animal reservoir. Many countries did stop mink-farming (the UK did so in 2000 I believe, NL and DK stopped it in 2020). Given the risk we may have to rethink on how we deal with pigs, chicken etc. (A question is do you want to eat meat full of vaccines/anti-biotics etc. ?)

2-(Inter)national travel (by air, boat, train, car) has to get very limited. Long term travel limits to 100 miles (or so) to where you live could become a long term norm. 

3-Improving air-quality, public health has to make us less vulnarable. Obesity, diabetes etc. do increase risks. 

I think a "next pandemic" may come ON TOP of this pandemic...not after this one...Extreme weather events-and linked earthquakes (due to less ice on Greenland/Antarctica) also will make the situation "harder". 

-WAR seems to be top-priority still [url]https://southfront.org/rocket-salvo-hits-ain-al-asad-air-base-in-iraq-damage-and-casualties-reported/[/url] or https://southfront.org/rocket-salvo-hits-ain-al-asad-air-base-in-iraq-damage-and-casualties-reported/ and [url]https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/us-submarine-was-ready-to-sink-russian-warships-after-2018-strikes-fox-news/[/url] or https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/us-submarine-was-ready-to-sink-russian-warships-after-2018-strikes-fox-news/ 

DJ-If we do not fix stupid we are dead...

As always I hope I am completely wrong, writing non-sense etc...




We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 03 2021 at 9:32pm

DJ,

-A look at the numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for 3-3-2021. With over 440,000 new cases and over 10,000 deaths a clear indication the global third wave is increasing. DJ-I do expect a high number of people dying from these variants. The highest number of deaths so far has been between 17,000 and 18,000 a few times in january-with lots of UK (variant) deaths. 

Both the UK and other variants are getting widespread and will push healthcare over its limits. The duration of this crisis is making PPE, oxygen and other means of treatment becoming short. Staff is exhausted. Support in the public for lifting restrictions is growing while we may in the most dangerous phase of this pandemic so far. 

The claim of "vaccinating ourselves out of this third wave" is unrealistic. But support for NPI did decrease. With many variants spreading these variants (via co-infection in a host) will bring newer variants. 

Many reports of healthcare crises-from Oslo-Norway, Helsinki-Finland to Athens-Greece. All of Czechia in crisis, just like most of Brazil.

Some reports;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/908643-finland-new-coronavirus-variant-could-be-more-dangerous-for-young-people?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/908643-finland-new-coronavirus-variant-could-be-more-dangerous-for-young-people?view=streamA new cluster of COVID-19 cases has been traced to passengers on an inter-city bus that travelled from Helsinki to Savonlinna. The Savonlinna Central Hospital has confirmed that the infections were caused by the South African strain of the virus.

As of Wednesday morning, 64 people were confirmed to be infected with the new variant, which is thought to be more contagious than the original virus. The bus was carrying about a dozen passengers when it made the journey on 26 January.



Of those that were infected, one person has been hospitalised and the others have reported mild symptoms. All passengers and crew that were aboard the bus in question have been quarantined.

Representatives from the Savonlinna Central Hospital believe that the infection originated within the country.

DJ-Due to limited sequencing the spread of variants is mostly undetected. What we do find is often alarming because showing the variant(s) are allready spreading in an area/country. 

[url]https://www.debka.com/mivzak/kindergartens-shut-by-covid-infection-double-in-a-week-to-471/[/url] or https://www.debka.com/mivzak/kindergartens-shut-by-covid-infection-double-in-a-week-to-471/Coronavirus infection has begun sweeping the younger pre-school children and closed 471 kindergartens across the country. The pandemic’s focus is moving to children who are excluded from the national vaccination drive for adults, although trials on this age group are in progress by the manufacturers.  The R infection co-efficient has risen to 1 from 0.86 last week and still higher in the Arab community.

DJ-Excluding children from vaccinations may "move the virus" in their direction. They are working on vaccines in children. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/908793-poland-s-lake-district-sees-sudden-spike-in-covid-cases[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/908793-poland-s-lake-district-sees-sudden-spike-in-covid-cases COVID ward doctor Lukasz Grabarczyk fears his city of Olsztyn in Poland's north-eastern lake district is starting to experience its worst period of the pandemic, as it becomes the epicentre of the country's third wave.

Epidemiologists and doctors are trying to find out why the sparsely-populated region, which up until now had low infection rates, has seen such a sharp spike, especially of the variant first detected in Britain, and believe Poles returning from there may be behind it.

DJ-Travel of people/livestock=travel of the virus/variants. 

Flu-trackers also had a link to Vietnam-variant [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/genetics-aa/908773-emerg-infect-dis-novel-mutation-of-sars-cov-2-vietnam-july-2020[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/genetics-aa/908773-emerg-infect-dis-novel-mutation-of-sars-cov-2-vietnam-july-2020Abstract

A cluster of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infections in Danang, Vietnam, began July 25, 2020, and resulted in 551 confirmed cases and 35 deaths as of February 2021. We analyzed 26 sequences from this cluster and identified a novel shared mutation in nonstructural protein 9, suggesting a single introduction into Vietnam.

DJ-The DOI-link did not work. [url]https://www.businesstoday.in/current/world/vietnam-reports-new-variant-of-covid-19-more-contagious-than-uk-strain/story/430003.html[/url] or https://www.businesstoday.in/current/world/vietnam-reports-new-variant-of-covid-19-more-contagious-than-uk-strain/story/430003.html  is a bit older story.

Another update from Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KERAhqCD08E[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KERAhqCD08E ; some remarks

-The idea of starting vaccination children end of the year (in the US) is NOT realistic. Variants are infecting children-on the other hand we are reopening schools as fast as we can. Vaccines are there we may need to find out the right dosage.

-Since there is no evidence of variants spreading in the US-because of the limited capacity to find them in the US-Dr.J.C. "following the evidence" chooses to ignore variants spreading in the US. If this is "how science works" it is very clear why we are in this pandemic ! It would be wiser to look for evidence variants are NOT spreading in the US (or whatever country !!)

Dr.J.C. should be respected for over 40 years of medical experience. But his reasoning for me is unbelievable naive...Vaccine makers claim protection against variants, CDC does not find variants so "no evidence for coming disaster"...(Still for the US Dr.J.C. is already very alarmist..)

-Austria-Denmark-Israel may work together for second generation of vaccine-to deal with variants. Dr.J.C. these "variant vaccines may be used as 3rd booster vaccine end of 2021..." DJ-We are NOW in the phase that all kind of variants are causing problems-less then 5% of the global population had some form of vaccination...

-Eastern Europe (Hungary, Czechia, Slovakia, Poland) bying vaccines from Russia, China...Dr.J.C."EU is to slow" DJ-EMA approved Pfizer, Moderna, AZ/O and soon will approve J&J...I believe the UK or US is not doing that much faster...The EMA may even accept Russian, Chinese vaccins (proberbly also not good for Dr.J.C.....)

-Dr.J.C. is talking non-sense in claiming the US will emerge from this crisis earlier then the EU...Most of the EU have strict NPI, the US may be doing better in vaccines-so far. But vaccines offer limited protection after two/three weeks...and if there is no NPI you still will see a lot of cases...(DJ-It is okay if Dr.J.C. "hates" the EU-but do not claim to be "neutral"....!!)

-Many countries (in the EU) claim "AZ/O not effective in 55/65+ age group" Dr.J.C. lots of evidence from Scotland, Israel claim AZ/O IS effective ! (DJ-Dr.J.C. does not want to see for profit "competition" via misinformation-from "other for profit vaccine producers" making billions of US$ out of this pandemic...!)

It would be "more constructive" if Dr.J.C. made a point on limiting travel NOW but he gets angry about the (complete) faillure of the WHO january 30-2020 then claiming there was no need to stop transport and travel...We are much deeper in this crisis now-wasting energy over faillures from the past is not helping-we have to act NOW !!!

Because WAR; [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/base-hosting-u-s-troops-attacked-in-iraq[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/base-hosting-u-s-troops-attacked-in-iraq DJ-The US bombed parts of the Iraq-army a few days ago fighting IS in the Iraq-Syria border area. Of course there will be an Iraq-militia reaction-maybe using Iran weapons...[url]https://southfront.org/iraqi-sources-claim-iranian-made-rockets-were-used-in-recent-attack-on-ain-assad-base/[/url] or https://southfront.org/iraqi-sources-claim-iranian-made-rockets-were-used-in-recent-attack-on-ain-assad-base/  DJ-US is in Syria, Iraq against international law-both governments want US forces out...

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/03/by-following-trumps-policies-bidens-deterrence-predictably-fails.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/03/by-following-trumps-policies-bidens-deterrence-predictably-fails.html DJ-The biden presidency may bring more useless wars...

There are some claims the Arctic may have had its maximum ice already-would be the earliest ever recorded...We could be moving toward a "Blue Ocean Event=BOE" this summer-with much more methane-release speeding up climate "change"...[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4P4t0p3Yjfg[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4P4t0p3Yjfg Paul Beckwith-limiting his time to 15 minutes...then makes a lot of 15 minutes video's...

Music-The Seekers-We Shall Not Be Moved 1967...[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JfnygyqwxKA[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JfnygyqwxKA 


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 04 2021 at 9:55pm

DJ, 

A major earthquake-like yesterdays M8,1 north of New Zealand-with tsunami-risks-can worsen further this pandemic. 

A look at the numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ;

-Brazil highest number of new cases was january 7 with over 87,000 new cases in just one day. March 3  (2021) did see 1840 deaths. Both the number of new cases and deaths will go up fast. Variants are "out of control" in Brazil. ALL indications are up, positive testing, new cases, hospital cases, ICU's and deaths-this is a very major disaster !

The P1 and P2 variants are most spreading still inside Brazil-but it will soon spread outside Brazil when people try to get help in nearby countries. 

-Even with lots of restrictions cases go up in most of Europe. A mix of variants-with the UK variant getting dominant) is pushing up the numbers. In NL we also now have 10 Mexican variant cases-with some similarities to B/SA variants...But the mix of variants increasing in most of Europe has to result in coinfections and so new variants...

-Israel again almost 4000 new cases. [url]https://www.debka.com/mivzak/spike-in-child-coronavirus-infection/[/url] or https://www.debka.com/mivzak/spike-in-child-coronavirus-infection/ DJ-Children do not get vaccinated so they are a major factor in keeping this pandemic going. [url]https://www.debka.com/mivzak/austria-denmark-set-up-vaccine-alliance-with-israel/[/url] or https://www.debka.com/mivzak/austria-denmark-set-up-vaccine-alliance-with-israel/ -goal is development of new vaccines to deal with (upcoming) variants-for the coming years. 

From flutrackers;

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/908893-cidrap-brazilian-experts-warn-of-deepening-covid-crisis-european-cases-rise[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/908893-cidrap-brazilian-experts-warn-of-deepening-covid-crisis-european-cases-rise 

An important remark; 

  • The World Obesity Federation said in a new report today that the majority of COVID-19 deaths have occurred in countries with high obesity levels, including the United States, Britain, and Italy. They also said countries where less than half are overweight have one-tenth the deaths of those with overweight populations.

DJ-Can explain why Africa, South Asia, Latin America may have lower deaths.

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/908875-great-apes-at-san-diego-zoo-become-first-non-humans-to-receive-covid-19-vaccine[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/908875-great-apes-at-san-diego-zoo-become-first-non-humans-to-receive-covid-19-vaccine Most zoo's in the world are in crisis.No visitors mean less income. Keeping the animals healthy means keeping staff healthy (via testing, NPI). Some zoo's will go bankrupt. Zoo's play a role in protecting some endangered species that do not reproduce (enough) in the wild. 

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/908643-finland-new-coronavirus-variant-could-be-more-dangerous-for-young-people?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/908643-finland-new-coronavirus-variant-could-be-more-dangerous-for-young-people?view=stream ;The government is set to invoke emergency powers on Friday, which would allow non-urgent care to be delayed as the pandemic spreads. According to the current estimates, an infected person passes the virus on average to about 1.15 to 1.35 others, as the more infectious U.K. strain circulates.

DJ-Other countries in the area, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland also report increase of cases due to variants. 

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream ; Childhood virus

Five years from now, when childcare centres call parents to tell them that their child has a runny nose and a fever, the COVID-19 pandemic might seem a distant memory. But there’s a chance the virus that killed more than 1.5 million people in 2020 alone will be the culprit.

This is one scenario that scientists foresee for SARS-CoV-2. The virus sticks around, but once people develop some immunity to it — either through natural infection or vaccination — they won’t come down with severe symptoms. The virus would become a foe first encountered in early childhood, when it typically causes mild infection or none at all, says Jennie Lavine, an infectious-disease researcher at Emory University in Atlanta, Georgia.

Scientists consider this possible because that’s how the four endemic coronaviruses, called OC43, 229E, NL63 and HKU1, behave. At least three of these viruses have probably been circulating in human populations for hundreds of years; two of them are responsible for roughly 15% of respiratory infections. Using data from previous studies, Lavine and her colleagues developed a model that shows how most children first come down with these viruses before the age of 6 and develop immunity to them1. That defence wanes pretty quickly so it is not sufficient to block reinfection entirely, but it seems to protect adults from getting sick, says Lavine. Even in children, the first infection is relatively mild.
...
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00396-2

DJ-The problem with this idea is that coronavirus in animals does not develop that way. In pigs, chickens, bats corona-virusses keep causing serious problems ! Another "mis-take" is in the numbers-at present the Covid-virus/variants could be in tens of millions of hosts-it is far more widespread. Corona virusses in animals-with much smaller outbreaks-do mutate/recombine a lot. In the present global largest ever corona-outbreak it is very likely we will have "serious problems for a long time". Vaccine escape is found to happen often in animal corona-infections. In my idea (DJ) scientists do not yet realize how big this crisis is...

-DJ-Do we get to a million deaths per month from Covid19 variants ? Close to a million infections per day ? With increasing numbers how do we stop Covid19-variants in other non-human hosts ? A Brazil group warned yesterday to increase NPI-do the maximum-to stop virusspread. I (DJ) think that does not only go for Brazil but worldwide...

Before a tsunami strikes the water is pulled back into the ocean. We have "leaders" claiming "cases are going down" but again the worst part of the pandemic may still be in front of us...

The variants we already do know (SA, P1 etc) should warn us-other variants may be even worse. This pandemic may dwarf the Spanish Flu if we do not want to see the risks...

-Dr.J.C. with a vitamin story [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfZpLllgd5Q[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfZpLllgd5Q  no doubt usefull info...

Music [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UMPC8QJF6sI[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UMPC8QJF6sI Fade To Grey-Visage




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 05 2021 at 2:19am

DJ, 

-Two video's on exponential pandemic growth; [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg&t=308s[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg&t=308s A video (march 8-2020) on how exponential growth works-the exponential phase in reality is only for some time. 

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wKOslhIFt6U[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wKOslhIFt6U From february 2021 on why "models are far from perfect"-the human factor. 

What makes "model making" for the present pandemic a "very hard job" is A-The virus itself is changing-there may be even some exponential factor in the variants...

B-The hosts did change-not only the number of hosts is a problem-also what species that can get infected is a problem. If you have a more advanced statistical model you could include;

-S=Susceptable=not yet infected

-E=Exposed=infected but not yet spreading the virus

-I=Infectious=infected and spreading the virus

-R=Recovered/Removed=no longer spreading the virus

DJ-S if we only include humans with over 116 million people having tested positive since the start of this pandemic-and knowing variants may evade immunity in practice that number should include most of us. We may have vaccinated a few hundred million by now-most of them not fully protected yet-due to both time and variants...If we want some realism we have to include other species then humans. But with close to 8 billion humans we are already facing a big problem...

To have spread you need to have people being E=Exposed becoming I=Infectious...Via NPI you can try to get exposure down. But duration of the pandemic, economic pressure "gotta have food" the effect of NPI is "eroding" if it was of meaning anyhow...So with NPI going down I=Infectious go up...

Then there are some other considerations; unclear what role children play-how infection effects them. But even if a <10 y/o only has 50% of virusspread an adult has children do play a role. 

The big factor remains the variants. What will they do ? Will they become causing more cold-like illness-and when ? For now they are not doing so-they are often worse then the "variant zero" wich started this pandemic...

Learning from corona-virus-diseases in animals is limited. What we do know we know of contained groups of animals that we kill if there is a major outbreak. We did have vaccines offering limited protection in animals. But we DO know corona virusses are a long term problem in animals. And we do know variants-even within much smaller "populations" do happen all the time...

So to make a basic "model" on S.E.I.R idea has ;

Susceptable =proberbly still most of humans and very likely some other species-the number should be over 10 billion ????

Exposed=due to limited testing/sequencing both in humans and other species (minks, cats, pigs) may be in tens of millions 

Infectious=may be the same story

Removed are the "hosts" that did not survive...Over 2,5 million humans and millions of minks, very limited other species. 

With S being very big-E and I hard to control-but more then enough to do a lot of damage and R excluding recovered or vaccinated to a high percentage with newer variants "the outlook is not good". 

So what to do; 

-Yes-vaccination may help protecting-for now-for severe disease if vaccination had enough time and variants are at least a bit effected by vaccination. But the number of people that has to be (re)vaccinated in itself is a problem. And lets put another factor in this story-if vaccination would be 10 €/$ each and we need 8 billion of them-maybe several times. The costs per 8 billion people per "round" would be 80 billion....Other healthcare costs also will increase. Is there an "economic limit" to what we can do to deal with the present pandemic ? 

On a family scale "gotta have food" translates on a global scale to "who will pay for this pandemic-costs" ? 

With duration the economic factor may put limits...the "poor countries" can get vaccine overproduction". 

-The other alternative NPI would need a change of strategy. I think it is the only possible way out of this crisis but we should make long term plans (including the economy-"gotta have food"!).

Politics/experts may not be ready yet for switching strategies. But the longer we waint the deeper we sink in this swamp.  (Dealing with this pandemic may be dealing with climate change-the bigger problem and motor behind the sixth extinction.)

-[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LRp15GNJBF8[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LRp15GNJBF8 MedCram on some US variants...The California variants peaked in december-started to decline-more or less goes as well for NY variant. DJ-So it is complicated-variants can show up and turn out to be less of a risk.

Still what we should have learned is to be vigilant, stay on the safe side, pre-caution may be better then fighting another outbreak...


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 05 2021 at 10:03pm

DJ, 

Trying to make some sense of this pandemic. [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ; Yes Brazil is in a (P1-variant) very serious crisis. Also some other countries face variant linked problems. Yet worldwide-so far-cases do not (yet) explode. (Talking of explosions-at the end of this post some links to Russia attacking-again-oil stealing operations in Syria. If this pandemic is running out of control-why not start a war ?)

Yesterday I posted a link to MedCram about NY/Cal-US variants-they seem to have peaked and then decreased. Often it is not all that clear why virus/variants act the way they do. South Africa managed to "keep damage limited" from the SA variant; maybe people know the risks of getting infected and do take enough caution to not get infected ? 

In a video on "models of a pandemic"; this is harder then rocket science. A little bit more wind in an area can mean less cases-due to more ventilation=lower viral load. Some rain may mean virus "drop faster"...A bit less social mixing could mean a lot less new cases...

So-Is it safe now ? Is the pandemic gone ? I do not think that is the case-but I realize "scenario's of what to expect" at this moment is hard. 

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/909004-cidrap-americans-covid-19-optimism-grows-but-cdc-head-more-wary[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/909004-cidrap-americans-covid-19-optimism-grows-but-cdc-head-more-wary 

DJ-Less testing fits with Covid-fatigue. If people do more to decrease risks less testing-more reopenings-may not be the same problem it was some months ago. More planes flying does not mean more passengers on those planes...I would love to eat in my favourite restaurants-but even if they were open I can wait...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/908216-czech-republic-faces-hellish-days-february-24-czechs-ask-germany-poland-switzerland-for-help[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/908216-czech-republic-faces-hellish-days-february-24-czechs-ask-germany-poland-switzerland-for-help ;A number of hospitals have declared a “mass casualty event”, meaning not all patients may get the standard of care they would normally receive.

-

I hope there is some sequence analysis going on - it is an isolated hotspot in Europe, so we need to consider the possibility that the UK (or other) variant has taken hold, or its possible that there is a novel Czech variant in play.

DJ-Finding variants (in time) is still a major problem.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america-aa/south-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/908673-brazil-outbreak-is-worse-than-ever-as-covid-19-cases-balloon-people-are-actually-dying-waiting-for-icu-bed[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america-aa/south-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/908673-brazil-outbreak-is-worse-than-ever-as-covid-19-cases-balloon-people-are-actually-dying-waiting-for-icu-bedThe health-care system is about to collapse – even in Sao Paulo, Brazil's most populous city with the largest medical infrastructure in the country, Dr. Miguel Nicolelis, a Brazilian-born Duke University neuroscientist, told NPR's Mary Louise Kelly.

He describes a "horrible" situation with hospitals at full capacity, turning people away, with some left to die in ambulances or on the street. "They [hospitals] are refusing to take patients because they cannot find a bed in the ICU. So, let's say you have a heart attack or you have a stroke or you had a car accident ... people are actually dying, waiting for ICU bed."

DJ-And even if you know the variant(s) involved there are limits to capacity...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/908994-morocco-egyptair-announces-the-suspension-of-flights-starting-today-until-further-notice-to-morocco-to-stop-spread-of-covid-19-march-5-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/908994-morocco-egyptair-announces-the-suspension-of-flights-starting-today-until-further-notice-to-morocco-to-stop-spread-of-covid-19-march-5-2021 DJ-There is some discussion-can countries reopen more of their local economy if they do limit more long distance travel ? 

I (DJ) think we have to STOP 90% of international (air)travel. Not only for this pandemic-or to prevent the next one- but also for climate reasons. Still fossil fuel/airlines/aircraft industry is "a major power factor"(=has politics under control via financing). 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/908643-finland-new-coronavirus-variant-could-be-more-dangerous-for-young-people?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/908643-finland-new-coronavirus-variant-could-be-more-dangerous-for-young-people?view=stream DJ-Finland asking for negative tests before you can enter Finland while "the Finnish variant" escapes most PCR tests ????

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/908956-infect-dis-model-long-thin-transmission-chains-of-severe-acute-respiratory-syndrome-coronavirus-2-may-go-undetected-for-several-weeks-at-low-to-moderate-reproduction-numbers-implications-for-containment-and-elimination-strategy[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/908956-infect-dis-model-long-thin-transmission-chains-of-severe-acute-respiratory-syndrome-coronavirus-2-may-go-undetected-for-several-weeks-at-low-to-moderate-reproduction-numbers-implications-for-containment-and-elimination-strategySevere Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 1 (SARS-CoV-1) infections almost always caused overt symptoms, so effective case and contact management enabled its effective eradication within months. However, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) usually causes only mild symptoms, so transmission chains may grow to include several individuals before at least one index case becomes ill enough to self-report for diagnosis and care. Here, simple mathematical models were developed to evaluate the implications of delayed index case detection for retrospective contact tracing and management responses.

DJ-Without clear symptoms Covid19/SARS-2 can spread for weeks before a case is detected...so in a chain of infections most of the infections go undetected. CDC had 59% of infections a/pre-symptomatic. If variants more evade PCR testing, more cases in children, less testing to Covid-fatigue a new wave may go undetected for weeks...[url]https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042721000178?via%3Dihub[/url] or https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042721000178?via%3Dihub Trying to find ways of more early detection. 

DJ-"Good news" is A-I do not see reports on newer "new variants" so far. B-Also spread in animals seem to be limited/not detected (maybe because it is not there..) C-Flu cases minimum. In NL excess mortality is below average...DJ-In the news they link it to vaccinating the most vulnarable...I think that is "very optimistic" since we are still vaccinating them. More likely A-The most vulnarable already died and B new cases in other age groups. 

[url]https://www.rt.com/russia/517352-covid19-statistics-restrictions-dropped/[/url] or https://www.rt.com/russia/517352-covid19-statistics-restrictions-dropped/

Another grim milestone has been reached in Russia's fight against Covid-19, with Moscow officials confirming that more than 200,000 deaths linked to the virus have been recorded since the first fatality just under a year ago.

Rosstat, the country's statistical authority, announced on Friday that 37,107 people had died while infected with the coronavirus in January, putting the overall official number of dead at 200,432 and potentially giving the country the third-highest total death toll in the world after the US and Brazil. However, when measured on a per capita basis, the world's largest country has seen lower mortality rates than other European nations like the UK, Italy and France.

The data is broken down in terms of how clearly the fatalities can be attributed to the virus. For 21,511 people, Covid-19 was the main cause of death, while in another 2,388 it had a significant impact on the fatal complications of a separate condition. A further 8,427 people were said to have died while infected, but without the virus playing a significant role.

DJ-There is no clear international defenition of "covid death" (or even Covid-case-some countries only counting positive testing PLUS symptoms...) The real number of Covid deaths has to be related to excess deaths. People may die of other causes-never had Covid19/SARS-2-but if they would have survived if there was no pandemic they-in my opinion-would have to be counted as "pandemic death". 

-I try to get a realistic view of this pandemic. Communications are essential-and I still think main-stream-media do a very bad job in reporting. Can journalist think for themselves ? Or do they just copy press releases ? If I would call myself the "Non Scientific Board of Experts" and send press releases would that get in the media ? 

Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ffh593GHbLQ[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ffh593GHbLQ ;

-UK with over 6000 new cases per day pandemic far from over. In the over 80 y/o most-99%-did get vaccinated but 41% dit meet others outside their "care bubble" ...DJ-The big question is WHY ???? It is much to easy to claim they have to "follow the rules" but the idea of 80+ y/o more or less in isolation-not all of them have a "care bubble" could explain why they "do not follow the rules". We may have to look at those rules...

I (DJ) think it is totally unfair to blame over 80 y/o for "not sticking to the rules" when you fail to report on international air-travel. Blaming the victim is weak and not helping !

-UK variant 6% of cases in Germany four weeks ago, now over 40%....DJ-"Old news" and "incomplete news" -the problem in most of Europe is increase of a mix of variants-not only the UK variant...co-infections may create new variants...(Again Dr.J.C. is running behind the facts-not answering my questions...) On FluTrackers is the Czech-republic major outbreak most UK variant ? There is hardly any sequencing...

-More old info under his video...Dr.J.C. keeps running behind the facts. If that is "science" then "science is a problem not a solution"!

(Somehow a part of my writing went missing...) Global priority is WAR [url]https://www.debka.com/mivzak/gantz-military-strike-plans-for-irans-nuclear-sites-constantly-updated/[/url] or https://www.debka.com/mivzak/gantz-military-strike-plans-for-irans-nuclear-sites-constantly-updated/ and [url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/03/on-shia-backed-iran-backed-nonsense-and-other-warmongering-journalism.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/03/on-shia-backed-iran-backed-nonsense-and-other-warmongering-journalism.html 

Also-very serious [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/russia-syria-bomb-oil-storage-facilities-being-used-by-u-s-turkey-israel-inside-syria-giant-escalation-in-syria-could-lead-to-immediate-war[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/russia-syria-bomb-oil-storage-facilities-being-used-by-u-s-turkey-israel-inside-syria-giant-escalation-in-syria-could-lead-to-immediate-warThe Syrian Arab Army and Russian forces inside that country, fired Tochka Ballistic missiles at Oil Storage Tank Facilities being occupied by and used by the United States, Turkey and Israel, inside Syria.  Giant explosions levelled most of the storage tank farms, rendering it impossible for the US, Turkey or Israel to continue STEALING Syrian Oil; something that has been going on for years while the US was allegedly "fighting ISIS."

DJ-Biden has to show he is "doing better then trump" and has to end those endless wars...or face the consequences !

The missile debris in the second video above makes clear this was a RUSSIAN attack.   Initial intelligence estimates are saying Russia intentionally destroyed these Syrian oil storage facilities, likely with the permission of the Syrian government, to put an end to the rampant THEFT of Syrian oil by the United States, Turkey and most recently, Israel.

Conservative estimates reported that, during it's battle against ISIS, the USA stole $30 Million a month.   Later when Turkish troops entered Syria allegedly to contain the Kurds, Turkey began stealing the oil too, raising the amount stolen to about $60 Million a month.   Most recently, Israel allegedly joined the theft, and was allegedly stealing another 20-30 Million for themselves each month, causing Syria to lose upwards of $100 Million a month to this theft ring.

No one knows who is getting all the oil money.   Speculation exists that it is greasing the pockets of American military higher-ups, American politicians, and those of similar position in both Turkey and in Israel.  Russia just slapped all of them in the face and destroyed their money pipeline.  They can't steal the oil anymore because Russia just smashed the needed oil storage facilities from which the oil was being smuggled out of Syria.

With its free money pipeline cut off, the "Deep State" is likely to go berserk, and thus my former colleagues in the Intel Community tell me the push will be "on" in the Intel and military communities, to drive the US to direct war against Russia inside Syria.

My former colleagues also told me that the most immediate and likely retaliation will be a major escalation inside eastern Ukraine, as the US and the West strike back to cause big trouble for Russia.

The most staggering warning from my former colleagues is that "this situation could rapidly escalate to direct warfare, inside Syria, between the US and Russia, with a second front opened against Russia by Europe, with warfare in Ukraine on the continent of Europe."

DJ-Corruption is widespread in the west. CIA is paying lotst of IS support from stolen oil from Syria and Iraq. [url]https://southfront.org/hell-fire-large-scale-missile-strike-hits-oil-traffickers-market-crossing-equipment-in-northern-syria-videos/[/url] or https://southfront.org/hell-fire-large-scale-missile-strike-hits-oil-traffickers-market-crossing-equipment-in-northern-syria-videos/ 

DJ A Dutch MP warned in NL for mixing of government, representatives and press. Worldwide democracy is failing ! Representatives can forget about their political carreer if they ask to many questions, the "free press" is embedded.

"Our leaders" did not stop this pandemic but they rather blame China...


Music [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2lLJDKW4Vs[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2lLJDKW4Vs Rolling Stones-You can't always get what you want-in Havana-Cuba (love the chorus at the end-may not be the best video/clip though...)



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 06 2021 at 10:37pm

DJ, 

-Of course top priority is [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/emergency-action-message-by-us-military-b-52-s-airborne-toward-middle-east[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/emergency-action-message-by-us-military-b-52-s-airborne-toward-middle-east WAR....The US want to stop Russia from getting a link ro the Indian Ocean via Iran, China a link with Europe and Africa-via Iran. Every excuse is welcome...[url]https://southfront.org/oil-traffickers-in-northern-syria-suffered-catastrophic-losses-in-recent-missile-strike-photos/[/url] or https://southfront.org/oil-traffickers-in-northern-syria-suffered-catastrophic-losses-in-recent-missile-strike-photos/ 

-[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ DJ-When I look at the numbers cases are increasing (exploding) in some regions. Brazil, Czechia, a.o. are in crisis. Most of Europe is facing an increase of A-The UK variant, B-other variants;

So why are global numbers not going up very fast ? I guess there are several reasons;

-Testing fatigue in groups that should be testing. A lot of new cases in younger agegroups-and they may be the ones most "tired of it all". So total number of test can go up but if the groups that need testing the most are not tested you will miss a lot of cases...

-The Finland variant evades (some) PCR-testing. Some newer variants may not be picked up by the tests.

-Allthough most countries do increase testing capacity in many places not every one can get tested if they do not have symptoms or "positive contacts"..

-Some testing facilities itself may be of "increased risk" for getting the virus

DJ-Another factor may be "variants fighting eachother". The UK variant turns out to be slower in spreading in both Europe and US then expected. Other variants-in some regions-France, Austria-may become more dominant. Could co-infection delay positive testing ? (On longer term increase MIS ? Multi Inflamatory Syndrome ??? Show up in another way ?)

-Vaccinations/natural immunity only can have limited effects in some groups. In many countries the most vulnarable and HCW-ers now are in the proces of getting a (second) vaccination. Most people did not yet get infected with Covid19, earlier other corona-infections (cold) may only offer very limited protection. 

Flutracker; Limited news-claims Russia/China did break in western computers...point is that it is hard to prove. Any intel group can break in and make it look like another country did it....Russia and China are no saints but their vaccine strategy may have hardly any need for breaking in into western computers...[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escobar-shape-things-come-china[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escobar-shape-things-come-china ; A very good example is how China, in less than two decades, managed to extricate 800 million people out of poverty: an absolute first in History.

-

Brown re-examines 250 years of entrenched Western positions on China and remarks how is “more difficult than ever” to engage in a reasonable debate.

He identifies three major problems.

1. Throughout modern history, there’s no Western appreciation of China as a strong and powerful nation, and its restored historical importance. Western mindsets are not ready to deal with it.

2. The modern West never really thought of China as a global power; at best as a land power. China was never seen as a naval power, or capable of exercising power way beyond its borders.

3. Propelled by the iron certainty over its values – enter the very much debased concept of “true democracy” – the Atlanticist West has no idea what to make of Chinese values. Ultimately the West is not interested in understanding China. Confirmation bias reigns; the result is China as a “threat to the West”.

Brown points to the key predicament afflicting any scholar or analyst trying to explain China: how to convey China’s extremely complex worldview, how to capture the China story in a few words. Soundbites do not apply.

DJ-The basic point "the west" still is that racist and arrogant..believing all problems come from elsewere and all the solutions are western made...[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/03/is-china-hacking-random-servers-to-put-itself-into-a-bad-light.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/03/is-china-hacking-random-servers-to-put-itself-into-a-bad-light.html 

Dr.John Campbell did put out THREE video's yesterday-a long interesting one on Ivermectin, another one on Canada and this one with Lindsy from Canada-but when I read the comments I do not know if he is providing good new info...[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VS2-QxAM41Y[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VS2-QxAM41Y ;

-There are few allergies known that may stop you from getting vaccinated-but they are very rare (less then 1 in a 1000)

-Autoimmune reactions may mean the vaccine will oofer less protection

-If you did have a Covid-infection in the last 60/90 days it may be better to wait a few months

-Ivermectin is an old-1975-cheap rug used against parasites-most in animals. It can slow down viral reproduction, but the right dosage is essential. A low dosage will have no (measurable) effects. A high dosage can give serious healthproblems itself. In a Spanish study 24 patients did seem to benefit from Ivermectin-recover faster. But it is not yet clear how the Ivermectin worked...In PCR test the viral production ofter 4 and 7 days was the same as in non-ivermectin groups...

-DJ I start getting that YES-Ivermectin may have some effects-but it is pretty complicated to get the right dosage on the right moment and it may be high risk since Ivermectin also can do a lot of damage...

The 1 hour video [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vYF8bnmdQfY[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vYF8bnmdQfY  with Dr. Tess Lawrie did see an interesting comment; Ryan Cole; I’ve used it on 42 high risk very sick patients. All were better in 12-48 hours. Small case series, but I’m clinically very impressed. Mechanisms- 1. Inhibits binding at spike 2. Blocks alpha-beta importin subunit so the virus loses transport into the cell 3. Protease inhibitor effect inhibits viral unfolding  4. Inhibits rna dependent replicase replication site 5. Stimulates up regulation of natural interferon by the nucleus which stimulates and strengthens surrounding cells from infection and secondarily down regulates inflammatory cytokines. 6. Binds to cd147 on platelets and red cells which inhibits clotting (Covid is a clotting disease). 7. NF kappa beta modulation for a quicker T cell response.  These mechanisms make ivermectin effective both against virus as well as immune modulation, hence it has efficacy in prophylaxis, outpatient treatment, immune modulation in hospital and effect in post Covid syndrome (long haulers).  It works!! It should be standard of care.  (Mayo Clinic trained, board certified pathologist, 17 years in practice, 350,000 patients experience) thanks!

DJ-There is a lot of discussion on Ivermectin and what I do get is that yes-it works in some practices maybe able to give the right dosage at the right moment of infection...But if you give the wrong dosage (or a wrong timing) there may not be the effect you want. 

Maybe similar to vitamin D discussion in wich Dr. J.C. advises much higher dosages then people normaly take (but within the safety zone-no overdose). 

Another try on Music-Rolling Stones "You can't always get what you want" [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=krxU5Y9lCS8[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=krxU5Y9lCS8 with chorus..As an extra "Introducing the Netherlands" from 1955 [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rjl8AxF9mTU[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rjl8AxF9mTU we did our share in creating overpopulation and enviromental damage...!




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 07 2021 at 1:43pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 07 2021 at 9:39pm

DJ,

-The number of vaccinations per day going up to tens of millions worldwide-with US, India, China having most of the real number of vaccinations-is "good news". Vaccinations may not stop this pandemic but may do some "damage control" and with that buy us time. 

The [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for sunday march 7 gives an indication where the problems-most new cases-are. Brazil/Latin America and Europe. Since Africa has limited testing the real number of new cases very likely will be (much) higher..

Brazil-with over 80,000 new cases yesterday-is a disasterzone. The P1 variant did reach the largest city Sao Paulo and is "destroying" Brazil. 

The new variants-with the UK variant getting widespread-but vaccines still offering reasonable protection-are the big problem.

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/909100-denmark-detects-another-case-of-brazilian-virus-p-1[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/909100-denmark-detects-another-case-of-brazilian-virus-p-1 DJ-Good there is no minkfarming in DK-you do not want to mix the P1 variant with large scale mink infections.

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/909105-ohio-brazil-variant[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/909105-ohio-brazil-variantThe article does not mention whether this was a travel related case or not. It was identified in a 2 year old child at a children's hospital. I would like to know more about this case. Because if it is not connected to a travel related case then it means it is a community acquired case. And one in a child at a hospital. Hopefully we will know more soon.

DJ-Limited sequencing and testing is a major problem for containment of variants...[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/fed-up-burn-the-mask-protest-in-boise-idaho[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/fed-up-burn-the-mask-protest-in-boise-idaho Stupid does kill !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america-aa/south-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/908673-brazil-outbreak-is-worse-than-ever-as-covid-19-cases-balloon-people-are-actually-dying-waiting-for-icu-bed-younger-people?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america-aa/south-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/908673-brazil-outbreak-is-worse-than-ever-as-covid-19-cases-balloon-people-are-actually-dying-waiting-for-icu-bed-younger-people?view=stream DJ-The P1 variant looks like a bigger risk for young people.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/909099-fast-spreading-covid-19-variants-surge-through-europe-march-6-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/909099-fast-spreading-covid-19-variants-surge-through-europe-march-6-2021 ;Europe recorded 1 million new COVID-19 cases last week, an increase of 9% from the previous week and a reversal that ended a six-week decline, WHO said Thursday.

“The spread of the variants is driving the increase, but not only,’’ said Dr. Hans Kluge, WHO regional director for Europe, citing “also the opening of society, when it is not done in a safe and a controlled manner.”

The so-called U.K. variant is spreading significantly in 27 European countries monitored by WHO and is dominant in at least 10 by the agency's count: Britain, Denmark, Italy, Ireland, Germany, France, the Netherlands, Israel, Spain and Portugal.

It is up to 50% more transmissible than the virus that surged last spring and again in the fall, making it more adept at thwarting measures that were previously effective, WHO experts warned.

“That is why health systems are struggling more now,” Kluge said. “It really is at a tipping point. We have to hold the fort and be very vigilant.”

In Lombardy, which bore the brunt of Italy’s spring surge last year, intensive care wards are again filling up as more than two-thirds of new positive tests are of the UK variant, health officials said this week.

-

South Africa variant

While the U.K. variant is dominant in France, forcing lockdowns in the French Riviera city of Nice and the northern port of Dunkirk, the variant first detected in South Africa has emerged as the most prevalent in the Moselle region, which borders German and Luxembourg. It represents 55% of the virus circulating there.

The South Africa variant also is predominant in a district of Austria that extends from Italy to Germany, with Austrian officials announcing plans to vaccinate most of the 84,000 residents to curb its spread. Austria is also requiring motorists along the Brenner highway, a major north-south trucking route, to produce negative test results.

The South Africa variant, now present in 26 European countries, is a source of particular concern because of doubts over whether the current vaccines are fully effective against it. The Brazilian variant, which appears capable of reinfecting people, has been detected in 15 European countries.

DJ-It is very likely the P1-Brazil-variant is spreading in Africa. The SA variant must be spreading there as well. But limited testing, "politics" and hardly any good media may mean Africa has a major other problem nobody wants to know about...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/909068-biorxiv-zoonotic-spillover-of-sars-cov-2-mink-adapted-virus-in-humans-poland[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/909068-biorxiv-zoonotic-spillover-of-sars-cov-2-mink-adapted-virus-in-humans-poland Covid in minks in Poland, Canada, Greece. It is very likely Covid is in far more animals-with testing in humans often very limited. Infections in other then human hosts increase the risk for new variants/mutations. So far we do not have enough capacity (or the sense of urgency) to detect those animal related mutations. 

-Other sources. 

From this forum Gestalt#42-post in General discussion "the must get milder myth"..the virus want to reproduce-so if the infection has to become milder then there may be changes in the host. You could argue natural/vaccine immunity gives protection-and less severe outcome-for the "old variant"...and that may be correct. The problem is in the new variants-as FluTracker puts it; reporting on Brazil now is the way it was over a year ago in the first stages of the virus spreading outside China. Can the variants create "a pandemic on top of a pandemic"? 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant#Statistics The SA variant now (at least) in 54 countries with (over) 3668 cases. 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_P.1#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_P.1#Statistics  The P1 (Brazil) variant in-over-36 countries, over 558 cases

DJ-Both variants are spreading. Often mixed with a.o. the "old" and UK variant. Co-infections will bring newer variants. 

In general main-stream-media "have less interest" in this pandemic. Politics would "like to move on"....

-Dr. John Campbell made a shorter summary of his talk with Dr. Lawrie on Ivermectin. [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ix8i7dfsCJg[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ix8i7dfsCJg Under his video "indications look positive" (DJ)

Yesterday from Dr.J.C. talk with the Canada "Friendly Pharmacy" also questions on dosages to be effective. DJ-Some studies find no/not enough benefit from Ivermectin. (DJ-Since Ivermectin is cheap Big Pharma may go for profits and come up with fake-studies...in that way killing a lot of people as they have done before...)

DJ-What we should learn from this pandemic is to respect all live. Healthcare is a basic human right in a civilization-NOT for profit ! NOT just for the rich ! The "west" going in a cold war mode when Russia and China also export their vaccines should stop being arrogant. In a serious pandemic "we" have to work together !

Music [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uQ2WACBI1as[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uQ2WACBI1as People of the World unite-Charles Chaplin speech with music...from The great dictator (=greed) [url]https://www.charliechaplin.com/en/articles/29-the-final-speech-from-the-great-dictator-[/url] or https://www.charliechaplin.com/en/articles/29-the-final-speech-from-the-great-dictator- ;

Dictators free themselves but they enslave the people! Now let us fight to fulfil that promise! Let us fight to free the world - to do away with national barriers - to do away with greed, with hate and intolerance. Let us fight for a world of reason, a world where science and progress will lead to all men’s happiness. Soldiers! in the name of democracy, let us all unite!



We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tabitha111 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 08 2021 at 6:15am

This post falls at random, but once again I want to thank you Josh for your outstanding posts. I read them all.
Tabitha

'A man who does not think and plan long ahead will find trouble right at his door.'
--Confucius

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 08 2021 at 7:28am

I don't. 

I get quite fatigued with moderating - it's a thankless job.  Reading post after post because I have to.   But having someone like Josh posting, whom I completely trust not to post: utter-rubbish, racist-crap, misinformation  (deliberate or accidental), mysogeny driven agression, unexplained statistics and maps, graphs and diagrams without keys to their understanding,  spam, articles without links, or any trollish, troublemaking tripe is a joy I quite fail to express fully. I read his posts when I have time, but that is not always, and if time is short, it is wonderful to know I can trust him - even though that means I have more time to devote to the troublemakers - SIGH!

THANK YOU, THANK YOU, THANK YOU, JOSH!!!

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 08 2021 at 11:39am

Tabitha, Techno-thanks for the friendly words...

DJ-In a reaction a few GOOD news items;

-[url]https://www.debka.com/nearly-5-m-israelis-vaccinated-infection-drops-below-1pc-after-two-doses/[/url] or https://www.debka.com/nearly-5-m-israelis-vaccinated-infection-drops-below-1pc-after-two-doses/ ;The vaccination is amazingly effective, Israel’s health experts find, as nearly 5 million received their first anti-covid-19 jabs by Monday, March 7, and more than 3,5 million their second. The Health Ministry reported that in the past six weeks, infection among two-shot vaccination cases had dropped to less than 1pc, and their symptoms were mild enough to avoid hospital care. “This amazing success is not just visible in clinical trials, but in the real world,” said Prof. Gala Rahav, head of infectious disease at the Sheba Medical Center.

-

Coronavirus director Prof. Nahman Ash warned that a fourth lockdown could not yet be ruled out – even possibly in time to cast a pall over the March 23 election and the Passover festival five days later. It is up to every individua, he said, to take responsibility for obeying the health rules, now that schools, universities, restaurants, cafes, bars, shops, events halls, gyms, hotels, concert halls, sporting events, theaters and Ben Gurion airport are reopened – all under tight restrictions. “Red areas” were excluded.  At eateries, theaters and gyms, patrons have to show their Vaccination Certificates at the door or sit outside.

-

Brazilian Foreign Minister Ernesto Araujo and Eduardo Bolsonaro, son of the president, were welcomed in Israel on Sunday when they arrived on a visit to review a new covid treatment. The disease raging in Brazil has infected 11 million people and caused 260,000 deaths, partly due to two unknown covid variants. The new treatment developed at Ichilov hospital in Tel Aviv by Prof. Nadir Arber has cured 29 out of 30 coronavirus patients in serious or critical condition during the first phase of its clinal trial. The visitors said they were looking forward to building a partnership with Israel to face the coronavirus pandemic.

Last week the Austrian and Danish leaders visited Israel to review its advances in confronting the pandemic and agreed to set up an alliance for joint research and development for beating the virus in the long term., …

DJ-In Israel there is fear for the variants. With a lot of Orthodox Jews traveling to and from the US the NY variant did arrive in Israel. Also the SA and P1 variants (a.o.) still have to show how good the protection from vaccines works out. "Green-pass" to allow more "freedom" DJ-are a very serious risk. You have to keep most of the NPI if you want to get out of this pandemic !

-[url]https://innovationorigins.com/dutch-wageningen-university-uses-lasers-against-bird-flu/[/url] or https://innovationorigins.com/dutch-wageningen-university-uses-lasers-against-bird-flu/ ;

An outbreak of bird flu is one of every poultry farmer’s worst nightmares. Especially in the European winter months from October through March, farmers often anxiously look outside to see if there are any migratory birds around. The greatest danger comes from wild ducks and geese that can spread the virus through their droppings. That threat has also increased in recent years as many farmers have switched to free range farms for their chickens and turkeys.

This prompted Wageningen Bioveterinary Research center (WBVR, a division of Wageningen University and Research in Lelystad, the Netherlands) to start a test with lasers. Earlier research had already shown that lasers can help deter wild birds from airports and landfills. Why not from poultry farms?

Laser and eight cameras

This relatively simple procedure is proving to be quite effective. To conduct the study, WBVR installed a laser on a 6-foot-high mast in the hens’ laying area on a farm that has had to deal with several bird flu outbreaks during the 2019-2020 winter period.

During the evening and night, when the chickens were inside, just the 1.5-hectare run was lit up by lasers. Between the hours of 10 am and 5 pm, part of the surrounding fields were also lit up. The grounds were monitored with eight cameras. The study used the laser for one month, and deliberately did not use it for one more month.

-

Visits by wild ducks to the outdoor run were almost completely prevented (99.7%) when the laser was used. In addition, visits by other wild birds to the run between sunrise and 10 am dropped very sharply (> 96%) thanks to the the laser.

DJ-H5-bird flu types are not only a risk for poultry-also other animals (including humans) may get infected...

-[url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/03/08/acute-care-leader-race-time-3rd-coronavirus-wave-covid-hospital-total-stable[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/03/08/acute-care-leader-race-time-3rd-coronavirus-wave-covid-hospital-total-stable ;

Further increasing the rate of Covid-19 vaccinations in the Netherlands is urgently needed to prevent or at least minimize the impact of a third wave of the disease on the country's healthcare system, said Dutch acute care network leader Ernst Kuipers. "You can already see the effect of the vaccinations in nursing homes: there are fewer infections and mortality has fallen," he told regional broadcaster RTV Rijnmond.

The Netherlands has administered 1,620,090 vaccine doses since January 6, including about 24 thousand on Sunday, data from the RIVM showed. That brought the seven-day moving average down to 40,489, twelve percent lower than a week ago possibly due to a delay in AstraZeneca vaccine deliveries.


Kuipers wants to see that figure double within a month. "It's a bit of a race against time: are we going the fastest with vaccinations and keeping it under control for now? Or will the virus have the opportunity to re-emerge?"

DJ-Variants are increasing in NL. Reopening could give more room to SA/P1 variants-even with vaccination. The "good news" is we do not have a health crisis. I expected more and more severe cases from the UK variant in NL. Good to see I was wrong there...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 08 2021 at 10:29pm

DJ,

-Let me start with sharing a thought; "The tragedy of human progres is that it brought us to the edge of the clif-we have to rethink ourselves ".

-[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ The numbers (or lack of it) for monday march 8 reflecting the limited testing/reporting from sunday march 7. Reporting indicates countries like Brazil, Czechia are in a major crisis. Other countries do have serious problems-most related to variants-from Finland, France, Italy, to Greece hospitals face "challanges and limits of capacity". 

Both the SA and Brazil P1 variant may cause "a pandemic upon a pandemic". Vaccinations may not prevent the spread and infections of these-known-variants. Other variants may also be problematic. 

Still "politics" want reopenings, "back to the old (ab)normal". We shall find out that that is not possible. We have to "reorganize society" to survive. 

-[url]https://www.debka.com/mivzak/brazilian-fm-in-israel-to-investigate-new-covid-treatment/[/url] or https://www.debka.com/mivzak/brazilian-fm-in-israel-to-investigate-new-covid-treatment/ ; The Brazilian Foreign Minister said that both nations were building a partnership to face the coronavirus pandemic. FM Gabi Ashkenazi promised Israel’s help to overcome the pandemic. He thanked the visitors for their support of Israel on the international stage – especially their “steadfast position against the International Criminal Court’s decision to prosecute the Jewish state.”

DJ-Of course countries use vaccines, treatment etc. related to this pandemic for their own goals. "The West" does so-but think that is normal. Russia and China want to show themselves as capable of dealing with a pandemic. Israel is also trying to use medical developments for political goals. 

DJ-It is interesting to see Israel, but also Iran-Cuba finding their own strategy. There is "a lot of room" between "East and West". India is the largest vaccine producer in the world. The "pandemic cold war" may result in (groups of) countries finding their own way out. 

-Flutrackers;

Africa; [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa/gabon-covid-19/909235-gabon-covid-19-franceville-several-cases-including-20-health-workers-from-amissa-hospital-tested-positive[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa/gabon-covid-19/909235-gabon-covid-19-franceville-several-cases-including-20-health-workers-from-amissa-hospital-tested-positive I had to find Gabon myself on the map-north of Angola, south of Cameroon on the Atlantic African coast...Is it the SA variant spreading ???

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa/guinea-covid-19/909231-guinea-covid-19-high-rate-of-contamination-treatment-centers-at-maximum-capacity[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa/guinea-covid-19/909231-guinea-covid-19-high-rate-of-contamination-treatment-centers-at-maximum-capacity ;

Donka being closed by decision of the health authorities, the epidemiological treatment centers have reached their maximum capacity.

Worse, the viral load of this second wave is too high, epidemiologists testify. They fear the appearance of a new variant.

What can this variant be of? For the moment, no study has been initiated to tell the public whether it is one of the variants that exist around the world or it is a new Guinean type.

USA; [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/909264-in-oregon-scientists-find-a-virus-variant-with-a-worrying-mutation[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/909264-in-oregon-scientists-find-a-virus-variant-with-a-worrying-mutation ; Scientists in Oregon have spotted a homegrown version of a fast-spreading variant of the coronavirus that first surfaced in Britain — but now combined with a mutation that may make the variant less susceptible to vaccines.

The researchers have so far found just a single case of this formidable combination, but genetic analysis suggested that the variant had been acquired in the community and did not arise in the patient.

“We didn’t import this from elsewhere in the world — it occurred spontaneously,” said Brian O’Roak, a geneticist at Oregon Health and Science University who led the work.

...The new version that surfaced in Oregon has the same backbone, but also a mutation — E484K, or “Eek” — seen in variants of the virus circulating in South Africa, Brazil and New York City.

Lab studies and clinical trials in South Africa indicate that the Eek mutation renders the current vaccines less effective by blunting the body’s immune response. (The vaccines still work, but the findings are worrying enough that Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna have beguntesting new versions of their vaccines designed to defeat the variant found in South Africa.)

The B.1.1.7 variant with Eek also has emerged in Britain, designated as a “variant of concern” by scientists. But the virus identified in Oregon seems to have evolved independently, Dr. O’Roak said.

DJ-Some places in the RNA of this virus seem to change much easier. There is a tendency of some mutations showing up in several places-no travel needed but "a build in mutation that will show up" in the UK variant. With that UK variant becoming the dominant pandemic virus-and more of this E-to-K at 484 position mutation to be expected the pandemic is far from over. See also [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#Notable_missense_mutations[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#Notable_missense_mutations 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/united-states-2019-ncov/nevada-covid-19/909245-nevada-patients-revealed-prevalence-of-unique-sars-cov-2-variants-bearing-mutations-in-the-rdrp-gene-06mar2020-05jun2020[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/united-states-2019-ncov/nevada-covid-19/909245-nevada-patients-revealed-prevalence-of-unique-sars-cov-2-variants-bearing-mutations-in-the-rdrp-gene-06mar2020-05jun2020We report the occurrence of a novel mutation at 323aa (314aa of orf1b) of nsp12 (RNA dependent RNA Polymerase) changed to Phenylalanine (F) from Proline (P), in the first reported isolate of SARS-CoV-2, Wuhan-Hu-1. This 323F variant was present at a very high frequency in Northern Nevada. Structural modeling determined this mutation in the interface domain, which is important for the association of accessory proteins required for the polymerase. In conclusion, we report the introduction of specific SARS-CoV-2 variants at very high frequency in distinct geographic locations, which is important for understanding the evolution and circulation of SARS-CoV-2 variants of public health importance, while it circulates in humans...

DJ-These are OLD cases but Interestingly, analysis of the Northern Nevada and Southern Nevada specimen showed very different dominant variants. In Northern Nevada the F323 was more prevalent, while in Southern Nevada L323 was more prevalent. We used a subsampling of Nextstrain.org data to assess the frequency of P323L/F in the United States and globally during the same time period (March 6 to June 5). P323 was the predominant variant in Asia, while L323 was more prevalent in other areas of the world and F323 was only appreciably noted in North America...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/909263-sars-cov-2-501y-v2-b-1-351-elicits-cross-reactive-neutralizing-antibodies-preprint[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/909263-sars-cov-2-501y-v2-b-1-351-elicits-cross-reactive-neutralizing-antibodies-preprint DJ-In short (I think I understand;) dealing with one variant may be dealing with several variants-so you do not need a vaccine for "only"the P1 or SA variant-that vaccine may offer protection against several known newer variants.

DJ-However those "newer variants" are not the newest variants that must be starting their spread by now. The UK/SA/Brazil variants are wave 1 in variants. They have had enough time to spread and reproduce/mutate so we now have to get ready for wave 2. Knowing the "weak spots" in the RNA at least some of the mutations proberbly should not come as a surprise...But we need better sequencing, detection-and NPI to stop the spread !!!

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/909262-cidrap-mixed-global-pandemic-picture-surges-in-some-areas-eased-measures-in-others[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/909262-cidrap-mixed-global-pandemic-picture-surges-in-some-areas-eased-measures-in-others DJ-From the PAN-demic point of view "surges in some areas" means restrictions in ALL area's...We keep making the same mistake over and over by "saving the economy" we are destroying society. "We have to fix stupid or stupid will kill us"!

Good news from Finland !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/909239-finland-researchers-introduce-a-nasal-covid-vaccine[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/909239-finland-researchers-introduce-a-nasal-covid-vaccine ;Rokote Laboratories Finland Ltd., a newly-founded academic spin-out based in Finland is working to develop and introduce to the markets a nasal spray vaccine against COVID. The vaccine is based on research carried out at the University of Helsinki and the University of Eastern Finland.

The vaccine uses gene transfer technology developed at the University of Eastern Finland by Academy Professor Seppo Ylä-Herttuala's research group, and the technology has already been successfully used in several clinical trials using gene therapy to treat cardiovascular diseases and cancer. The vaccine uses a safe adenovirus carrier that contains a cloned DNA strand, which causes nasopharyngeal cells to produce the virus protein which, in turn, produces a response to the vaccine. There is no actual SARS-CoV-2 virus in the vaccine. Preliminary results show that the vaccine has performed well in animal studies, and clinical testing in humans will start within a few months.

Nasal delivery was chosen as the new vaccine's method of administration because the virus is also naturally transmitted through the airways. Indeed, nasal administration seems to induce a wider immune response than intramuscular administration.

"Vaccines injected intramuscularly produce IgG antibodies in the bloodstream, but nasal vaccines also produce an IgA response that protects mucous membranes. We assume that this can also prevent those who have received the vaccine from transmitting the virus," Academy Professor Seppo Ylä-Herttuala from the University of Eastern Finland says.

According to him, the currently ongoing vaccination programmes do not eliminate the need for new vaccines, as new variants are expected to cause new waves of infection.

"Even if we were able to vaccinate the entire population, at least people in medical risk groups will still need new vaccines against new variants in the upcoming years. The vaccines currently in use provide a clearly lower protection against the South African variant, which will likely be the dominant virus in the next wave. Our vaccine already takes into account the most important variants, i.e. the South African, Brazilian and the UK one. There will certainly be a demand for this type of vaccine," says Professor of Virology Kalle Saksela from the University of Helsinki.

The company will carry out the first clinical vaccine trials in Finland. In Kuopio, there is already the commercial technology needed to produce the vaccine.

DJ-A nasal spray is also much easier to do-of course it has to be done in the right way to be effective. But When it offers better protection then injecting a vaccine this is good news !

Other news; [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/report-congo-immigrant-vomiting-blood-on-pittsburgh-city-bus-may-be-ebola-virus[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/report-congo-immigrant-vomiting-blood-on-pittsburgh-city-bus-may-be-ebola-virus DJ-Ebola is again a serious problem both in West and Central Africa. With very limited care facilities it may/will spread. 

Since Ebola is also an RNA-virus some fear co-infection with Covid19 and Ebola could create a "monster virus". To compare it with "larger animals" a cat getting pregnant from an elephant is not very likely...Still we may not know enough of how RNA-virusses may recombine...

-Dr.John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e40EYxdIflk[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e40EYxdIflk (lots of info/links under his video). DJ-To be honest-Dr.J.C. is to much "good news" and to limited new info...(in my opinion-often).

It is unclear how the coming months will develop. Vaccines are increasing-but so are variants. Some opening may bring little harm-to much opening-and to much long distance travel-will bring a lot of harm. 

Yesterday Dr.J.C. had a good video on Ivermectin. That 1975 cheap medication has been used-in poorer countries-for over a year. It shows perspectives but not major profits...

I (DJ) did expect the UK variant hitting much harder in Europe by now-also I expected more other variant-cases. NPI did more then expected and I only can hope we are on "our way out"...

Music; [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jp3JZONOMHM[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jp3JZONOMHM Your Wonderfull Parade-Carpenters (lyrics/info under the-1969- video)







We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 08 2021 at 11:34pm

A key point in the discussion of variants/scariants that many people don’t discuss: SARS-CoV-2 only has so many tricks to pull, and it may have already used them up:

https://www.newyorker.com/science/medical-dispatch/what-the-coronavirus-variants-mean-for-the-end-of-the-pandemic?utm_source=twitter&utm_brand=tny&mbid=social_twitter&utm_social-type=owned&utm_medium=social

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 09 2021 at 3:01am

ksc, I would love to believe "limited options on mutations"for Covid19-but it is not what we did see in (other) animals. From chickens to cows, pigs coronavirus-infections are "very hard" to control and the virus finds new ways (via mutations/recombinations) all the time-evading often vaccination. 

Cattle, poultry etc are often limited in numbers in a contained enviroment. So those outbreaks should be easier to contain than the present-most in human-pandemic. Still it is hard to control...

Also looking at previous covid-infections in humans-now often only bringing the cold (so excluding SARS-1 and MERS) most likely did not get a chance to spread as fast as Covid19 can-and also in this number of (over)population. The number of infections and potential host due the virus/variants being so widespread is a problem in itself...

-[url]https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20210308-top-brazil-judge-annuls-lula-convictions-restores-political-rights[/url] or https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20210308-top-brazil-judge-annuls-lula-convictions-restores-political-rights DJ-For Brasil there is an alternative for bolsenaro. Since this person-calling himself a fascist-was brought to power by the US a change will bring unrest (US started civil war ? military (cia) coup ?). Everyone with some brains is fed up with the stupidity bolsenaro is spreading. 

The way out of this pandemic for Brazil is getting rid of [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jair_Bolsonaro[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jair_Bolsonaro No doubt Russia, China, Venezuela, Cuba, Iran will support this change-ready to provide help. [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream ;Faced with the relative apathy, China is trying to react: it hopes to have vaccinated 40% of its 1.4 billion inhabitants by the end of June, according to respiratory disease expert Zhong Nanshan, figure in the fight against Covid in the country.

“Emergency” vaccinations had already started last summer for exposed groups (caregivers, employees of state enterprises or students going abroad). Since December, cities, neighborhood committees and businesses have gradually offered 18-59 year olds to be vaccinated...

Beijing has so far approved four vaccines, all Chinese. However, two did not get the green light from the authorities until the end of February.

As a precaution, people 60 and over are almost excluded from vaccination, because manufacturers have not yet published precise data from clinical tests on seniors.

...
Millions of Chinese vaccines are going abroad, in the form of sales or donations, in order to "help the international community to overcome the epidemic", say the authorities.

According to state media accounts, orders and donations currently represent some 560 million doses. China says it offers free vaccines to 69 countries.
...
https://www.lalibre.be/international...ad5809d0bd2362

DJ-Of course this pandemic has political consequences !

[url]https://www.rt.com/op-ed/517522-covid-inequality-rebellions-authoritarian-backlash/[/url] or https://www.rt.com/op-ed/517522-covid-inequality-rebellions-authoritarian-backlash/ from Dr Lisa McKenzie is a working-class academic. She grew up in a coal-mining town in Nottinghamshire and became politicized through the 1984 miners’ strike with her family. At 31, she went to the University of Nottingham and did an undergraduate degree in sociology. Dr McKenzie lectures in sociology at the University of Durham and is the author of ‘Getting By: Estates, Class and Culture in Austerity Britain.’ She’s a political activist, writer and thinker. Follow her on Twitter @redrumlisa.;

But the rhetoric coming from the government that better times are on the way is just political BS. The hope of a brighter future is misplaced. There are some dark storm clouds of reality moving in at a fast pace that may well be more deadly that the virus: the spectres of growing global inequality, of widespread poverty and mass unemployment, and of the vast majority of us being under the control of an emboldened elite that through the pandemic has increased its wealth, power and political influence. 

Research shows that those who were already rich have increased that wealth exponentially, while those who were at the bottom have sunk even lower. An Oxfam report earlier this year showed not only that wealth inequality was deepening and becoming more entrenched, but also that policies enacted by governments around the world have resulted in giving even more billions to the super-rich while denuding the poorest. 

In Britain, we have a great deal of research and data on how the pandemic has affected different parts of the UK and different communities. The evidence is stark. It is beyond argument that by whatever measure you take – health, wealth, housing, employment, food, and so on – inequalities have worsened under the pandemic.  

But Covid-19 has simply, if sharply, exacerbated trends that were already in train. Over the last ten years, wages in real terms have been falling, especially in the public sector, where workers have endured pay freezes or below-inflation wage increases year on year, to the point where their pay has now stagnated. In the private sector, low pay and poor, unstable working conditions are now built into companies’ business plans without fear or shame. 

Our housing system is completely broken. The government’s preferred method of using the market to solve housing needs, either through private mortgages or through private landlords, has failed miserably. Buying a house is beyond the scope of most families on low to average incomes, and in the absence of good and affordable social housing, the private renting system has become a modern day evil – where renters are forced to pay as much as 60-70 per cent of their income on rent, when in a civilised world it should be more like 25%.  

Simultaneously, away from the cities and the large towns, there are large swathes of the country that have been forgotten and which are suffering great hardship, with few jobs on offer and no resilience to weather the austerity.  

DJ-Even Dr.J.C. in his last update expected UK now opening schools will mean increase of cases. DJ-Eventhough the UK had its UK variant-there are other variants out there. Vaccines will offer protection-but given how covid-(COrona VIrus Diseases) behaves in other animals there is only "limited room for hope". 

In his update Dr.J.V. mentions some countries in Europe going for Ivermectin as treatment for Covid. To many European countries are seeing lots of (often) UK variant cases-Ivermectin can now show how well it works out. 

-[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/mutant-covid-strains-florida-new-york-threaten-derail-us-recovery-bofa-warns[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/mutant-covid-strains-florida-new-york-threaten-derail-us-recovery-bofa-warns ;

The team of analysts at  BofA said these trends have raised concerns about Florida becoming a bellwether state for the spread of the new variants, which many fear could surge as states from Texas to Connecticut move to loosen at least some (or in Texas's case, practically all) virus-related restrictions. The fact that the state's positivity ratio has declined since the start of the year suggests that the virus truly is receding (in other words, the lower case numbers aren't due to solely to a pullback in testing).

Perhaps counterintuitively, the analysts at BofA are worried that the UK variant might not be as dominant in Florida as they believe. They also gamed out two additional scenarios that they said would lead to a greater outlook.

We see three possible explanations for Florida’s continued improvement. First, the spread of the new variant might not be as far along as estimated. So the old variant might still be contracting off a much larger base, while the new variant is growing off a small base. This would not be good news as it would suggest an imminent increase in cases as the new variant continues to spread.

Second, vaccines might be more effective at containing the virus than we thought, by making both vaccinated people and their close contacts less vulnerable. This would be good news because the cumulative effect of vaccines should increase quickly as the roll-out gains momentum. The third explanation, which is least likely in our view, is that the B.1.1.7 variant is significantly less contagious than widely estimated. This would probably be the best news of all.

But Florida isn't the only state struggling with COVID mutations: The B.1.526 variant that is believed to have originated in New York State is also raising concerns, according to BofA. New York cases have dropped more slowly than in the rest of the country, and have flat-lined in the last ten days. Hospitalizations are still falling, but, as the analysts remind us, they are a lagging indicator.

DJ-The most likely US scenario-with only very limited NPI/prevention and a lot of people still not (willing to get) vaccinated is another wave. Dr.J.C. had a look at the CDC-variant website and " it was not very up to date" to keep it polite...US may still have no idea how many and what kind of variants are spreading in the US. 

Given the international trend for "more reopening" we most likely still may face the worst part of the pandemic. But some area's may be lucky-escape from a crisis. Most likely due to a lot of people taking this virus serious NOT due to "politics"...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 09 2021 at 3:45am

Ditto!  RNA is as malleable as DNA.  Evolution is never a closed loop.

Believers don't need proof and sceptics won't accept proof.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 09 2021 at 4:06am

I always believed that RNA is more unstable  than DNA  because  RNA has only a single  strand where as DNA  with its double  helix can "patch in " missing or damaged  bits,so mutations  are rare

Where as RNA with its single strand  is more open to mutations and errors,that it can't fix....

Ergo it can go off in any direction.........

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 09 2021 at 11:04am

I am from Pittsburgh, and I can find nothing on the man vomiting blood on the PAT bus in the local media.  So either it's total BS, or it's being kept quiet to avoid a panic.

But I will tell "yinz" something.  Lately, I have felt a sense of impending doom, like the other shoe is getting ready to drop, and like what we've been through so far is nothing.  I've been trying to tell myself it's just some free-floating anxiety related to spending a year in limited contact with others, no job to bring a paycheck-world kind of stability to my life, and the fact that soon Covid may turn the corner, enabling us to get into the new normal post-acute-Covid world.  And me, a 55-year-old woman, having to get a new job.  I am trying to update my skills to get a better job so that I can enhance my retirement situation.  I'm feeling alot of stress, and I have been attributing my feeling of doom to that.  And that is what it probably is.

I hope...

I am the DZ Queen, and I approve this message.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 09 2021 at 9:50pm

ViQueen24-I (DJ) take Hal Turner with a grain of salt-allthough sometimes he has good info his "political (extreme right wing) agenda" dominates. Point is people still manage to travel from West and Central Africa and may spread with them a.o. ebola. 

I hope you can get a good job-not only in income but also in "feeling good", maybe in healthcare ? You are on this forum for a reason !

DJ

On "a sense of doom"; [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/covert-intel-march-15[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/covert-intel-march-15 and [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/israeli-military-goes-completely-dark[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/israeli-military-goes-completely-dark and [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/usa-and-eu-planning-ukraine-attack-on-russia-troops-tanks-artillery-moving[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/usa-and-eu-planning-ukraine-attack-on-russia-troops-tanks-artillery-moving ;

It is a big question what Israel-and some other countries-are planning to do against Iran. Russia kicking the US out of the Middle East must have a price. A few main reasons for "major conflict";

-Iran is a link for Russia to the Indian Ocean, for China to Europe/Africa

-The US$ is linked-so far-to global energy trade. Russia-Iran-China are just a few of many countries ending the "petro-dollar", and with that the US domination of the globe

-The pandemic is NOT under control, soon cases worldwide are expected to go up again-even with vaccinations...

In history there is a link between major pandemics and (major) war. I hope we can avoid such a global disaster this time...

Of course [url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/03/in-support-of-regime-change-the-new-york-times-continues-to-disform-its-readers.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/03/in-support-of-regime-change-the-new-york-times-continues-to-disform-its-readers.html The US did get the fascist bolsonaro in Brazil-president position, keeps supporting another right wing "opposition leader" in Venezuela...With Lula out of jail-much more popular with the common men in Brazil-and yet another victum of US "foreign policy insanity" the US is about to get kicked out of Latin America as well...

-The numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ; These numbers (from a different UTC time then some other global data-giving often different numbers..)may give global indications-Brazil, US, France top 3 in new cases, Brazil close to 2000 deaths in just one day-but they miss developments in smaller countries. Baltic States, Finland, Lebanon also in crisis. If countries are seeing limited numbers it often is related to NPI, only the UK, Israel, US should expect vaccines to have some effects. Certainly in older people it may take three weeks to get enough immunity after vaccinations-and most protection after two shots. 

UK variant cases-if CDC monitoring has any point-still has to get started in most of the US-with only Florida seeing a lot of UK variant cases so far...Other variants also expected to increase [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2 gets updated several times per day...

Here in NL the R0 for the UK and SA variant (we only have 5 Brazil P1 & P2 variant cases) is getting close to 1 due to NPI. Reopening to soon will create an increase of cases-the R0 has to get as close to 0 as possible...since we are already in a sort of lockdown lets use that momentum...if cases go up again it will take weeks to get to the point we are at now. 

There is NO room-NON at ALL !!!!!!-for international travel !!!! That at the moment is the biggest risk !!!! Travel agencies, "tourist countries" would love to have customers...politics is failing in "giving room to any idea we can go back to that kind of "normal"...If we want to stop this pandemic we have to stop virusses flying all over the globe for free !!!

If a "simple man" like me can understand that why are governments not doing that ? Fossil fuel/air industry lobby ? Greed ? Stupid ? 

-Flutrackers;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america-aa/south-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/908673-brazil-in-15-of-brazil-s-largest-cities-90-of-icu-beds-occupied-new-record-in-deaths-march-9-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america-aa/south-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/908673-brazil-in-15-of-brazil-s-largest-cities-90-of-icu-beds-occupied-new-record-in-deaths-march-9-2021 -redirects to [url]https://news.yahoo.com/brazil-posts-record-1-972-233807341.html[/url] or https://news.yahoo.com/brazil-posts-record-1-972-233807341.html

SAO PAULO (Reuters) - Brazil registered 1,972 new COVID-19 deaths in a single day on Tuesday, a record, according to the Health Ministry.

The country had 70,764 new cases of coronavirus, reaching a total of 11.12 million infections. Brazil had 168,370 coronavirus deaths.

Rio de Janeiro-based research institute Fiocruz said in a report on Tuesday that more than 80% of intensive care unit (ICU) beds are occupied in the capitals of 25 of Brazil's 27 states. In 15 of Brazil's largest cities, 90% of ICU beds occupied.

The institute said a growing number of cities risk a collapse of their health systems.

DJ-The P1 variant must be spreading slowly outside Brazil...neighbours like Peru, Colombia, but also smaller countries like Suriname will see more P1 cases

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/909303-jordan-suspends-live-attendance-at-all-schools-and-universities-from-tomorrow-until-further-notice-due-to-increased-covid-19-cases-march-10-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/909303-jordan-suspends-live-attendance-at-all-schools-and-universities-from-tomorrow-until-further-notice-due-to-increased-covid-19-cases-march-10-2021 ; DJ-Very likely also increase of UK variant

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/animal-diseases-of-concern-excludes-h5n1/909302-new-strain-of-deadly-hendra-virus-hev-discovered[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/animal-diseases-of-concern-excludes-h5n1/909302-new-strain-of-deadly-hendra-virus-hev-discoveredThe Australian veterinarian-led research project, ‘Horses as Sentinels,’ has identified a new strain of the deadly Hendra virus as the cause of a previously unexplained horse death in September 2015.

Hendra virus is highly lethal in both horses and humans, with mortality rates approximately 79% and 60% respectively. The originally recognised strain of Hendra virus has resulted in the deaths of four humans and over 100 horses in Australia, since 1994.

The newly recognised variant has not been detected previously by routine biosecurity testing in horses. In addition, the new strain has been detected in grey-headed flying fox samples from Adelaide in 2013 and it shares ~99% sequence identity with the 2015 horse case strain. Partial sequences of the variant have also been detected in flying foxes in other states.

DJ-Just as a reminder of an "unlimited number of diseases" that are waiting to jump on humans as a next host...we have been "lucky" with Covid-it will be much worse the next time...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/909293-cidrap-news-scan-covid-19-symptom-checkers-pollen-exposure-and-covid-19-carb-x-funds-for-s-aureus-vaccine[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/909293-cidrap-news-scan-covid-19-symptom-checkers-pollen-exposure-and-covid-19-carb-x-funds-for-s-aureus-vaccine DJ-The idea is that there is a co-relation between pollen in the air and number of Covid infections. Does hayfever make people more vulnarable ? 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/907813-treyfish-s-multiple-zoonotics-during-covid-19-pandemic-thread?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/907813-treyfish-s-multiple-zoonotics-during-covid-19-pandemic-thread?view=stream (latest activity); Experts told Sun Online how unknown viruses that are currently lurking unnoticed in animals could mutate and spread to humans.
As the world currently grapples with the Covid pandemic, scientists are in a race against time to find the potential source of the next one.
Animals and the viruses lurking in them are one of the prime suspects as expanding human populations come into contact with nature.
World Health Organization (WHO) officials have warned that the threat of zoonotic diseases - where infections pass from animals to humans - is an emerging danger.
WHO estimates that around one billion cases of disease and millions of deaths occur each year from zoonoses.

DJ-Not being in a pandemic may become the new ab-normal...

GOOD NEWS !!! [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/909265-pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine-neutralizes-brazil-variant-in-lab-study-astrazeneca-vaccine-also-appears-effective-against-brazil-covid-19-variant[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/909265-pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine-neutralizes-brazil-variant-in-lab-study-astrazeneca-vaccine-also-appears-effective-against-brazil-covid-19-variant ;RIO DE JANEIRO (Reuters) - Preliminary studies suggest the AstraZeneca vaccine will protect against the P1 variant of the coronavirus, Mauricio Zuma, the head of production at Brazil’s Fiocruz biomedical institute said on Monday, confirming a Reuters report on Friday.

DJ-How well it will protect and for how long is another question. We have to keep the spread to the minimum-not only to avoid new cases but also to avoid new variants !!!!

[url]https://www.debka.com/mivzak/vaccination-of-teens-in-early-summer-six-million-adults-by-april/[/url] or https://www.debka.com/mivzak/vaccination-of-teens-in-early-summer-six-million-adults-by-april/ DJ-To get as close to "herd immunity" (via vaccination) as possible one has to vaccinate children. 

-Dr.John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SV7ML38WfXk[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SV7ML38WfXk Yesterday (DJ) he surprised me by being more realistic-not "only dancing on the table because of vaccines"...

Maybe most interesting; Germany also using dogs for Covid-testing-other countries also working on that...

Other news;

-Italy will start producing the Sputnik-5 vaccine (so far only made in Russia) other (EU) countries (Germany, France-but non EU Turkey also had talks) may also "help increase production". DJ Production of vaccines-AZ/O, J&J is still problematic...Finland is working on a nasal-spray vaccine...Also new variants may finf new vaccines offering better protection. 

-Chile is now vaccinating faster even then Israel.  Chile manages  1,08 vaccines per 1000 per day, Israel does 1,03-per 1000 per day. US=#3 with 0,65 per 1000 per day, UK has 0,51 p1000/day, Serbia 0,49 p1000/day. (But not all vaccinations are in these statistics. Our World in data is not counting vaccinations in care centers...)

-Here in NL people ore booking hollidays for autumn, 2022-including cruises, air travel...DJ-Do we realy want the next pandemic ? 

Music-I "hated them" when I was young-Boney M (it was also not "cool" to like ABBA in those days...) Sunny [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yD8DcgpLp_w[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yD8DcgpLp_w 1976...




We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 10 2021 at 9:23am

You are correct about Hal Turner, Josh, as I have said before.  I do not know what the source of my possible presage is, but I am not in favor of the way some places are opening up wide again when we have all these variants circulating.  Also all kinds of social unrest is apt to be abounding with the Derek Chauvin case commencing.

Or it might just be my personal situation with the job, etc.  Thank you for your well wishes, Josh, your lips to God's ear!  On a personal note, we also have had a huge construction project going on in my yard and some adjacent ones.  They are replacing some drains, as we have had record rainfall in my area two of the last three years and have had historic flooding.  Of course the urgency in my neighborhood probably has more to do with the proximity to Oakmont Country Club/Golf Course, where the PGA has tournaments, including the 2016 US Open.  Anyway, all three of my yards are all torn up, and the last month have just been left abandoned, with pipes sticking up out of the ground, mounds of dirt heaped up, a muddy mess, etc.  And some cracks in my yard.  Lots of house-shaking, thumping, etc.  They are, as I write this, dumping a bunch of dirt in my driveway which I have to get out of in an hour or so to take my mother out to pick up some meds.  Unreal.

I am trying not to complain too much, though.  They have taken down two trees I didn't want anyway to place their drains, and supposedly they are going to compensate us, welcome at this point, for sure.

I am the DZ Queen, and I approve this message.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 10 2021 at 10:39pm

ViQueen24, Here in NL the Dutch CDC is-again warning-for a third wave. This time in April...I did believe we already were in a third wave...NPI limited the variants enough to get their R0 close to 1...They even mention "the black scenario" with ICU running out of capacity...Most likely their warnings are meant to "limit" political parties. Next week-march 17-we do have elections. Most parties try to get extra votes by making all kind of reopening promisses...If the polls are correct our "second chamber" of 150 seats may see (at least) 15 parties...(could be up to 18...) showing "political fragmentation"-I see that as part of a process for political renewal. 

Our "conservative liberal" government may win the elections-mostly due to a lack of real opposition. Also "media" in NL are "not the best" (embedded-to close to politics-not willing-often-to get critical. Why NL has to be a tax-haven ? What power does Royal Dutch Shell have ? Why some political parties do not want to show who is donating money ?)

Part of the problem in this pandemic is faillure of politics...They simply seem unable to (try to) understand (any) problems. The duration of this crisis is also a growing burden. Some countries, companies do profit from this crisis, others face bankruptcy...Some people lose their jobs-while others (from care to supermarkets, home-delivery) have to work over 60 hours a week...

DJ-A look at [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for march 10 numbers indicates there is a major problem;

-Worldwide we are moving into a "second wave" (the spring wave did see limited testing-so limited reporting...) a global number of 461,000+ cases is showing clearly increase of cases. 

-Brazil is just part of the problem. The US, many European countries also show alarming numbers. Brazil a record number of 2349 deaths in just one day. Czechia keeps an alarming high number of new cases and deaths...just as some other smaller countries. 

-Tanzania is NOT in the list of high numbers. Their (right wing christian) president is now in a Nairobi-Kenya hospital. Cardiac arrest after corona infection. Most likely the SA variant is widespread in the country. A "political elite" does see the virus as "the devil"-if you pray enough the virus will not harm you...An insane mix of politics and religion-widespread around the globe-from Brazil to Poland, but also some orthodox Jewish and Islamic groups refuse to accept (some) science...

-Israel still seeing over 3000 new cases in just one day. Even with most of the population at least getting one vaccination and still some NPI. 

From FluTrackers ;

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/909453-cidrap-death-rate-64-higher-with-b117-covid-variant-study-finds[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/909453-cidrap-death-rate-64-higher-with-b117-covid-variant-study-findsWhile the HR for death was not significantly higher in those infected with B117 up to 14 days after diagnosis, it rose to 2.40 (95% CI, 1.66 to 3.47) during days 15 to 28. Participants who died were older (mean age, 66.9 vs 46.3 years) than their peers, and more were men.

DJ-I think part of the story in this pandemic has been "crowd control"-to avoid panic. Of course panic does not help, but being honest may do better for "crowd control" then "unrealistic good news and false (vaccine) promisses". The picture I am getting is that vaccines often show better protection-also against variants-better then first expected. A third vaccination may even boost further immunity-and thus protection. Main problem is in the very high numbers of "hosts" needing protection. Also we have to limit international/longer distance travel if we want to stop viral spread. (See also [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/909430-nyc-uk-variants-account-for-51-of-new-covid-19-cases-in-city[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/909430-nyc-uk-variants-account-for-51-of-new-covid-19-cases-in-city )

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/909446-alaska-four-more-cases-of-more-contagious-coronavirus-strain-first-seen-in-brazil[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/909446-alaska-four-more-cases-of-more-contagious-coronavirus-strain-first-seen-in-brazil ; Health officials say they’ve discovered more Alaska cases of the P.1 variant of the coronavirus that’s devastated Brazil — suggesting that the mutant strain, which is likely more contagious and capable of reinfecting people previously sick with COVID-19, is getting a growing foothold in the state. State health officials announced the four new cases, two from Anchorage and two from Eagle River, during a public information session Wednesday. They’d previously detected just one case of the P.1 variant. But they said last month that more were likely given that the person found to have the strain had not recently traveled outside the state and did not have a clear source of infection, making it a case of community spread.

DJ-Vaccines do protect against variants but less well then against the "old" variant. The more infections/variants-the more newer variants will get "produced". At a certain point vaccines will get evaded-with a global "new wave" due to variants that point of "vaccine evading variants" may not be that far away. Also other diseases will get more chances to spread (a.o. via birds/bats). (See also [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/909422-illinois-feinberg-researchers-find-covid-19-strain-from-brazil-in-chicago[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/909422-illinois-feinberg-researchers-find-covid-19-strain-from-brazil-in-chicago )

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/909440-cidrap-global-covid-19-activity-shows-continued-variation[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/909440-cidrap-global-covid-19-activity-shows-continued-variationCases up in 3 WHO regions

Last week, the WHO said cases were on the rise again, up 7%, after falling for 6 consecutive weeks. Though cases were up again, the rise compared with the week before was smaller, at 2%.
Most of the rise was driven by activity in the WHO's Eastern Mediterranean and African regions, and to a smaller extent, the European region.
Deaths continued to decline, furthering a pattern seen since early February, and dropped another 6%. The five countries reporting the most cases were the United States, Brazil, France, Italy, and India.
Regarding variant activity, 5 more countries reported B117, raising the total to 111. Three more countries detected B1351, pushing the total to 58. And for P1, 3 more countries detected cases, making 32 so far.
In Brazil, hit hard with the P1 variant, large outbreaks in Manaus and elsewhere in Amazonas state are declining, but levels remain high or are on the rise in other parts of the country, where overall cases rose 11% last week. In a related development, the health ministry yesterday reported a record high daily death total of 1,972, according to CNN.
At a Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) briefing today, Director Carissa Etienne, MBBS, MSc, said officials are very concerned about the situation in Brazil, where cases are rising in nearly every state. She also said new illnesses are also rising in Paraguay, Uruguay, and Chile, and though cases are declining in Peru and Bolivia, levels are still very high.

DJ-Since cases are going down in some regions the global sense of urgency for action is decreasing. "Vaccines have to do the job" is the unrealistic view. 

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/909433-overview-of-variants-in-countries[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/909433-overview-of-variants-in-countries : DJ-When does a mutated form become a "variant"? 

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/909408-peerj-the-relationship-between-sub-tropical-climates-and-the-incidence-of-covid-19[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/909408-peerj-the-relationship-between-sub-tropical-climates-and-the-incidence-of-covid-19 DJ-It would be welcome if there were "clear links" between increased Covid-spread and weather (polle) conditions...You could make NPI "more fitting" more/specific restrictions if weather may bring an increase of virus-spread. Dry conditions could mean virus can spread further=more restrictions ? 

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/909378-chaos-solitons-fractals-mathematical-analysis-of-a-stochastic-model-for-spread-of-coronavirus[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/909378-chaos-solitons-fractals-mathematical-analysis-of-a-stochastic-model-for-spread-of-coronavirus ; DJ It may become even harder to get realistic models on how this pandemic will develop. Since the pandemic-data may get less clear economic data may become more dominating...Even if variants are increasing-the duration is getting an increasing problem. 

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/economics-at-flutrackers/909310-%E2%80%98i-hope-i-make-it%E2%80%99-7-year-old-alabama-girl-selling-lemonade-to-fund-her-own-brain-surgeries[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/economics-at-flutrackers/909310-%E2%80%98i-hope-i-make-it%E2%80%99-7-year-old-alabama-girl-selling-lemonade-to-fund-her-own-brain-surgeries ; DJ "We have to do better than this ! "

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/909321-vaccine-tablet-in-the-pipeline[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/909321-vaccine-tablet-in-the-pipelineAn interview this morning on BBC News indicated that it is likely that the booster vaccine required for the autumn in the UK to cover the variants circulating would be supplied by tablet "through the post".

DJ-Very good news-this can change the fight against the pandemic ! Injecting a vaccine in billions of people is an impossible-and very expensive-job. 

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/909367-one-health-the-contribution-of-veterinary-public-health-to-the-management-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-from-a-one-health-perspective[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/909367-one-health-the-contribution-of-veterinary-public-health-to-the-management-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-from-a-one-health-perspective ; DJ-Disease management has to stop making a difference between diseases in humans and in (other) animals. Diseases often jump species-better monitoring in birds, bats, etc. may prevent pandemics !

Dr. John Campbell with another update [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mnF2GRs2Llk[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mnF2GRs2Llk ;

DJ-Some main points;

-Reopening to soon may take weeks of extra NPI to bring down cases to the level one started with. DJ-We have to get the R0 as close to ZERO !!!! Not "just" under 1 to get out of this pandemic !

-Self medication with Ivermectin is NOT a good idea. Medical advice only can come from those with medical training ! (Do NOT even take advice from an internet doctor just like that-always think !)

WAR

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/happening-now-intense-signals-intelligence-aircraft-deployment-by-israel[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/happening-now-intense-signals-intelligence-aircraft-deployment-by-israel 

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/massive-cyber-attack-hits-russia-u-s-a-suspected[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/massive-cyber-attack-hits-russia-u-s-a-suspected 

DJ-I do not agree with HT political views (or that of Debka or many other sources) but at least they claim not to be "neutral", I know where they stand. It is very likely Israel is "not happy" with Russian limitations in Syria (and Lebanon) airspace. I do not think Israel will attack Russian air defense in Syria if that would kill Russians. Russia will not accept such an action and may react via Electronic Warfare limiting ALL Israeli movements-even in Israel itself...

Another serious point is that Israel, Saudi Arabia, Ukraine and several other countries did see "some integration with NATO". In many ways it is NATO fighting Russia, Iran, China already...often also via (paid) proxies/"rebels".

Weather [url]https://www.estofex.org/[/url] or https://www.estofex.org/ ;Given very strong vertical wind shear already at low levels, thermodynamic profiles indicate a typical high-shear, low-CAPE environment. Showers and thunderstorms will have the potential to produce severe wind gusts, especially along bowing segments. Additonally, low-topped mesocyclones may produce tornadoes.

DJ Another storm in NW Europe

Music; Elections-We Love You Rolling Stones [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PEB5P-4V81M[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PEB5P-4V81M  "We love your votes"...  Highly psychedelic video

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 11 2021 at 10:04pm

DJ, 

-[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Numbers are making clear that we are in another (second/third) wave. Allthough vaccines and NPI are keeping the increase limited-so far-we could use extra restrictions to keep virus/variants down. But there is more and more lifting of restrictions...vaccinations in many places is slow. 

FluTrackers;

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/preparedness-ab/909548-school-reopening-without-robust-covid-19-mitigation-risks-accelerating-the-pandemic-the-lancet[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/preparedness-ab/909548-school-reopening-without-robust-covid-19-mitigation-risks-accelerating-the-pandemic-the-lancet ;

DJ-Under 18 y/o often will get vaccinated last-maybe end of this year at best. While schools are reopening so chances for infection do increase...Even if (most) young people have "milder symptoms" they spread the infection further. 

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/vaccines-aa/909551-novavax-confirms-high-levels-of-efficacy-against-original-and-variant-covid-19-strains-in-united-kingdom-and-south-africa-trials[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/vaccines-aa/909551-novavax-confirms-high-levels-of-efficacy-against-original-and-variant-covid-19-strains-in-united-kingdom-and-south-africa-trials DJ-In the EU there are now 4 vaccines used; Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, AstraZeneca/Oxford and Janssen Pharma/J&J...Since the pandemic is worsening some other vaccines may be accepted here soon. Sputnik-5 could even see production in several EU countries (the vaccine does not have a nationality...)

There is growing pressure to lift patents so more vaccines worldwide can be produced in as many places possible. We need to increase production also to deal with variants (via booster vaccines/new vaccines).

WARNING :

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america-aa/south-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/908673-brazil-in-22-of-brazil-s-26-states-icu-occupancy-has-surpassed-80-new-record-in-deaths?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america-aa/south-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/908673-brazil-in-22-of-brazil-s-26-states-icu-occupancy-has-surpassed-80-new-record-in-deaths?view=stream Public health specialists lay part of the blame on the rapid spread of the P.1 strain from the Amazonian city of Manaus, which studies have shown to be more contagious and better able to reinfect people than previous versions of the disease. Deaths have also surged as Brazil’s health system has struggled to cope, meaning patients who could have been saved were left to die in chaotic hospital corridors or—in the worst cases—suffocated to death for lack of oxygen.

Brazil is now home to hundreds of new Covid-19 variants, researchers said, warning that other more dangerous versions could emerge the longer the disease is left to fester and mutate, threatening to undermine the progress of other countries against the pandemic.

... Like many doctors across the country, Mr. Parrini said he was seeing more younger patients—many in their 30s and 40s—than during Brazil’s first wave of cases in the middle of last year. Researchers are still trying to understand why.

DJ-Brazil now home to hundreds of new covid variants...Increase of infections + mixing of all kind of variants = new variants. The situation is getting worse ! What happens in Brazil is already spreading outside Brazil !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/canada/canada-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/909525-variants-of-concern-cause-more-than-40-of-new-covid-19-cases-in-ontario-experts-say[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/canada/canada-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/909525-variants-of-concern-cause-more-than-40-of-new-covid-19-cases-in-ontario-experts-say ;Critically, the reproduction value — an estimate of how many people each positive case will go on to infect — for VOCs is about 1.24, the table said. Any value above one suggests that the rate of new cases is growing.

Meanwhile, for the "old" variants — those that were present before the current VOCs were circulating — the reproduction value is 0.9.

So far in Ontario, labs have definitively linked 956 cases to the variant first found in the United Kingdom; 41 to the variant identified in South Africa and 28 to the variant found in Brazil.

But those figures are a drastic undercount of the real situation. Specific variants can only be confirmed once the samples have undergone whole genomic sequencing, an intensive process that can lead to reporting lags in the data of up to three weeks...

DJ-And the mixing of variants is a problem in itself...

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/novel-coronavirus-ncov-mers-2012-2014/saudi-arabia-coronavirus/909522-saudi-arabia-2021-mers-epiwk-10[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/novel-coronavirus-ncov-mers-2012-2014/saudi-arabia-coronavirus/909522-saudi-arabia-2021-mers-epiwk-10 DJ 57 y/o male and 56 y/o female infected with MERS another camel linked coronavirus. Can MERS somehow get mixed with Covid19-proberbly more likely then ebola (also an RNA virus) mixing up with Covid19...

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/909490-infect-dis-model-probability-of-a-zoonotic-spillover-with-seasonal-variation[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/909490-infect-dis-model-probability-of-a-zoonotic-spillover-with-seasonal-variation DJ-Preparing for the next pandemic-with H5N8, the plague (Madagascar, some other places) and Ebola (West and Central Africa) If we do NOT get Covid under control other diseases will also increase. 

-A study on the SA variant [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/909473-nature-emergence-of-a-sars-cov-2-variant-of-concern-with-mutations-in-spike-glycoprotein[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/909473-nature-emergence-of-a-sars-cov-2-variant-of-concern-with-mutations-in-spike-glycoprotein ; Continued uncontrolled transmission of the severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in many parts of the world is creating the conditions for significant virus evolution1,2. Here, we describe a new SARS-CoV-2 lineage (501Y.V2) characterised by eight lineage-defining mutations in the spike protein, including three at important residues in the receptor-binding domain (K417N, E484K and N501Y) that may have functional significance3-5. This lineage was identified in South Africa after the first epidemic wave in a severely affected metropolitan area, Nelson Mandela Bay, located on the coast of the Eastern Cape Province. This lineage spread rapidly, becoming dominant in the Eastern Cape, Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal Provinces within weeks. Whilst the full significance of the mutations is yet to be determined, the genomic data, showing the rapid expansion and displacement of other lineages in multiple regions, suggest that this lineage is associated with a selection advantage, most plausibly as a result of increased transmissibility or immune escape.

DJ If we know how the SA variant did get that dominant that fast we may learn from it. 

In general-vaccinations are increasing and those vaccines seem to limit both risk of infection and infection spread-three weeks AFTER vaccination ! Still other restrictions may be needed for MONTHS !!!! We do not want the R0 just under 1 but as close to 0 as we can !

But global priority is war [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/u-s-bases-in-dier-ezor-syria-being-sighted-in-for-launch-of-rockets-and-heavy-missiles-by-iranian-backed-militia-s[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/u-s-bases-in-dier-ezor-syria-being-sighted-in-for-launch-of-rockets-and-heavy-missiles-by-iranian-backed-militia-s 

[url]https://southfront.org/in-video-iraqi-resistance-group-blows-up-us-supply-convoy-near-fallujah/[/url] or https://southfront.org/in-video-iraqi-resistance-group-blows-up-us-supply-convoy-near-fallujah/ 

[url]https://southfront.org/iran-has-armed-its-forces-in-eastern-syria-with-russian-laser-guided-artillery-rounds-reports/[/url] or https://southfront.org/iran-has-armed-its-forces-in-eastern-syria-with-russian-laser-guided-artillery-rounds-reports/ 

[url]https://southfront.org/u-s-aircraft-carrier-deploys-in-mediterranean/[/url] or https://southfront.org/u-s-aircraft-carrier-deploys-in-mediterranean/ 

DJ-I understand the US economy is "based"on the US $ being linked to GLOBAL energy trade. But that base has to change. The US is unable to military occupy ALL oil producing countries (from Venezuela, Iraq, Iran, Russia, South China Sea...). We are in a global healthcrisis but most of the resources go to endless (US) wars...

Dr.John Campbell getting more realistic [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7rMvPe_FsDg[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7rMvPe_FsDgP.1 Could be up to twice as transmittable as the original virus Chance of reinfection, 25% to 60% Brazil, natural laboratory, when coronavirus goes relatively unchecked Breeding ground for new variants, several VOCs circulating Rapid vaccination and NPIs required Vaccines remains efficacious, but probably slight reductions

Music -Elections Dusty Springfield-If You Go Away [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wyCVxPEPx5Y[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wyCVxPEPx5Y 



We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 12 2021 at 10:35pm

DJ,

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/907813-treyfish-s-multiple-zoonotics-during-covid-19-pandemic-thread?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/907813-treyfish-s-multiple-zoonotics-during-covid-19-pandemic-thread?view=stream ;The virus causing the new outbreak barely differs from the strain seen 5 to 6 years ago, genomic analyses by three independent research groups have shown, suggesting the virus lay dormant in a survivor of the epidemic all that time. “This is pretty shocking,” says virologist Angela Rasmussen of Georgetown University. “Ebolaviruses aren’t herpesviruses”—which are known to cause long-lasting infections—“and generally RNA viruses don’t just hang around not replicating at all.”

Scientists knew the Ebola virus can persist for a long time in the human body; a resurgence in Guinea in 2016 originated from a survivor who shed the virus in his semen more than 500 days after his infection and infected a partner through sexual intercourse. “But to have a new outbreak start from latent infection 5 years after the end of an epidemic is scary and new,” .....

"long lasting problem"-the Guinea virus survived somehow for years...

MOSCOW, March 12. / TASS /. A new type of avian influenza A (H5N8) virus, which was identified in several Russians in February, is likely to mutate soon and be able to be transmitted from person to person, Anna Popova, head of Rospotrebnadzor, told TASS.

We were expecting a flu-pandemic. Maybe we did discover the virus in time to prevent this H5N8 pandemic ? 

DJ-The number of new cases [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ show an upward trend. Brazil-again-reporting high number of cases/deaths. Also high numbers from most of Europe. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/other-coronavirus/909590-bmc-res-notes-lack-of-detection-of-the-middle-east-respiratory-syndrome-coronavirus-mers-cov-nucleic-acids-in-some-hyalomma-dromedarii-infesting-some-camelu-dromedary-naturally-infected-with-mers-cov[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/other-coronavirus/909590-bmc-res-notes-lack-of-detection-of-the-middle-east-respiratory-syndrome-coronavirus-mers-cov-nucleic-acids-in-some-hyalomma-dromedarii-infesting-some-camelu-dromedary-naturally-infected-with-mers-cov  ;Our results showing the absence of any detectable MERS-CoV-RNAs in these arthropods despite these animals were actively shedding the virus in their nasal secretions. Our results are confirming for the first the failure of detection of the MERS-CoV in ticks infesting dromedary camels. Failure of the detection of MERS-CoV in ticks infesting positive naturally infected MERS-CoV camels is strongly suggesting that ticks do not play roles in the transmission of the virus among the animals and close contact humans. DJ-It is still not yet clear how the spread of MERS works. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/viral-mechanism/909585-j-virol-susceptibility-of-white-tailed-deer-odocoileus-virginianus-to-sars-cov-2[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/viral-mechanism/909585-j-virol-susceptibility-of-white-tailed-deer-odocoileus-virginianus-to-sars-cov-2 ;  Our data show that upon intranasal inoculation, white-tailed deer became subclinically infected and shed infectious SARS-CoV-2 in nasal secretions and feces. Importantly, indirect contact animals were infected and shed infectious virus, indicating efficient SARS-CoV-2 transmission from inoculated animals. These findings support the inclusion of wild cervid species in investigations conducted to assess potential reservoirs or sources of SARS-CoV-2 of infection.

DJ-It is very likely much more animals (then just humans) can get Covid19 and spread it-we need better monitoring ! We need better sequencing and we need more distance between animals and humans to have less infections ! See also [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/viral-mechanism/909584-j-virol-sars-cov-2-rapidly-adapts-in-aged-balb-c-mice-and-induces-typical-pneumonia[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/viral-mechanism/909584-j-virol-sars-cov-2-rapidly-adapts-in-aged-balb-c-mice-and-induces-typical-pneumonia  ....

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/genetics-aa/909575-j-travel-med-first-report-of-sars-cov-2-b-1-1-251-lineage-in-brazil[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/genetics-aa/909575-j-travel-med-first-report-of-sars-cov-2-b-1-1-251-lineage-in-brazil (DJ-Uncorrected manuscript-https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2 I (DJ) do not know 2B-1-1-251 but it is something they do not need !)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/909572-int-j-health-serv-why-asian-countries-are-controlling-the-pandemic-better-than-the-united-states-and-western-europe[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/909572-int-j-health-serv-why-asian-countries-are-controlling-the-pandemic-better-than-the-united-states-and-western-europe ;
The coronavirus pandemic has shed light on the detrimental impact of neoliberal policies on public health and well-being and as a result, there have been calls for increases in public spending to rectify the lack of public health services. However, neoliberal right-wing parties have dismissed such calls, pointing instead to Asian countries as examples in successfully controlling the pandemic without high public health spending, attributing this to the entrepreneurial orientation of their governments, as opposed to their public services. This article refutes this idea, instead charting the reasons that Asian countries have better controlled the pandemic including prior experience of pandemics, cultural factors, and various successful public health policies. The article concludes by looking at the example of Trump and demonstrating the inadequacies of the business model for dealing with the coronavirus pandemic.

DJ-We are sinking deeper and deeper into the swamp ! Since Covid19 is a relative "harmless" disease the reason for this pandemic may not be in the virus-but in how humans (not) deal with it...still. DJ-It can get a lot worse !!! If healthcare breakes you not only get chaos in the streets but also all kinds of other diseases will get out of control-in fact that already is a growing problem ! 

Neglecting global healthcare for many years has a price we will have to pay !

This post is long enough-the following one vaccines etc...



We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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[url]https://bigd.big.ac.cn/ncov/?lang=en[/url] or https://bigd.big.ac.cn/ncov/?lang=en DJ-An overview of Covid19 research with over 700,000 sequences...On the discussion on variants it is hard to have a 100% definition. Some mutations may be only small scale but with high risk potential. Other mutations may become widespread but give milder disease...Since research takes time new trends may show up after a few weeks. If their is a different kind of (severity of) symptoms often sequencing viral samples is done earlier-but there is still a limit in capacity...

Vaccines

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/immunity-aa/909586-j-virol-coronavirus-specific-antibody-cross-reactivity-in-rhesus-macaques-following-sars-cov-2-vaccination-and-infection[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/immunity-aa/909586-j-virol-coronavirus-specific-antibody-cross-reactivity-in-rhesus-macaques-following-sars-cov-2-vaccination-and-infection ;Reactivity was also measured to the distantly related common cold alpha-coronavirus, 229E and NL63, and beta-coronavirus, OC43 and HKU1, Spike proteins. Using SARS-COV-2 and SARS-CoV-1 lentivirus based pseudoviruses, we show that neutralizing antibody responses were predominantly SARS-CoV-2 specific. These data define patterns of cross-reactive binding and neutralizing serum responses induced by SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccination in rhesus macaques. Our observations have important implications for understanding polyclonal responses to SARS-CoV-2 Spike, which will facilitate future CoV vaccine assessment and development.ImportanceThe rapid development and deployment of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines has been unprecedented. In this study, we explore the cross-reactivity of SARS-CoV-2 specific antibody responses to other coronaviruses. By analyzing responses from NHPs both before and after immunization with DNA or Ad26 vectored vaccines, we find patterns of cross reactivity that mirror those induced by SARS-CoV-2 infection. These data highlight the similarities between infection and vaccine induced humoral immunity for SARS-CoV-2 and cross-reactivity of these responses to other CoVs.

DJ-Does vaccination against Covid19 offer protection against some other corona-virus infections ? (DJ-I am on the limit of "understanding" again I am not an expert-just trying to make some sense...)

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/inconvenient-fact-deadlier-covid-mutations-all-come-from-countries-where-astrazeneca-s-vaccine-trials-took-place[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/inconvenient-fact-deadlier-covid-mutations-all-come-from-countries-where-astrazeneca-s-vaccine-trials-took-place DJ-Hal Turner did publish a lot of non-sense...

Clear non-sense may be a lesser problem often. Claiming "people drop dead after vaccination" (as he did) is easy to prove "non-sense". It gets harder when there are some "sense" points....[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marek%27s_disease[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marek%27s_disease ;However, because vaccination does not prevent infection with the virus, Marek's is still transmissible from vaccinated flocks to other birds, including the wild bird population. The first Marek's disease vaccine was introduced in 1970. The disease would cause mild paralysis, with the only identifiable lesions being in neural tissue. Mortality of chickens infected with Marek's disease was quite low. Decades after the first vaccine was introduced, current strains of Marek Virus cause lymphoma formation on throughout the chicken's body and mortality rates have reached 100% in unvaccinated chickens. The Marek's disease vaccine is a leaky vaccine, which means that only the symptoms of the disease are prevented.[11] Infection of the host and the transmission of the virus are not inhibited by the vaccine.

DJ-A "leaky vaccine" deals with the symptoms but does not stop infection or spread of a virus....I think most of the Hal Turner post is non-sense. Yes there were trombosis cases after vaccination-but not more then one may expect. If you vaccinate millions of people some of them will be dead the next day-most likely has nothing to do with the vaccination. 

Why give attention to Hal Turner ? Because mis-information is widespread-often on purpose-with some political/economic goal ! And the mis-information may be winning for the moment. "Stupid will kill us"!

Vaccines are a medical intervention that has risks. Some people are afraid of needles and create all kinds of non-sense excuses...It is good a nasal spray (Finland) and a "pill"-vaccine (UK) is being developed. 

We can not keep vaccinating almost 8 billion people in the "old way". We most likely will need booster-vaccines, not only for Covid 19 but maybe also in an early stage of other pandemics-to avoid them becoming a pandemic !

It is essential to have good communications and a realistic story. Some vaccines are much to expensive for large scale use. If you also have to pay for profits most of the tax-money ends up at big pharma...providing testing, medication, vaccines-and making money out of it-dominating the science community. 

-[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rS_DGZC3NCw[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rS_DGZC3NCw ;

Virus mutations: past, present and future 

DJ-Since it has to be "science based" little room for speculation/scenario's...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2 can offer more info on "weak spots" in the Covid19-RNA that may see mutations...(becoming variants..)

Dr.John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w9OxwJMOagI[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w9OxwJMOagI DJ-May have some news-but most of it is "old news"....still good info !

WAR

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/03/oil-spill-caused-by-israeli-attacks-on-iranian-oil-bound-for-syria.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/03/oil-spill-caused-by-israeli-attacks-on-iranian-oil-bound-for-syria.html DJ-Israel has been attacking (Pro)Iran groups in Syria-but it also attacked Iran tankers transporting oil from Iran to Syria..."somehow western embedded "free" press" forget to mention...[url]https://www.debka.com/mivzak/explosion-on-iranian-vessel-opposite-haifa/[/url] or https://www.debka.com/mivzak/explosion-on-iranian-vessel-opposite-haifa/ and [url]https://www.debka.com/mivzak/israel-struck-12-iranian-ships-bound-for-syria-report/[/url] or https://www.debka.com/mivzak/israel-struck-12-iranian-ships-bound-for-syria-report/ 

[url]https://southfront.org/iranian-tankers-have-an-israeli-sabotage-problem/[/url] or https://southfront.org/iranian-tankers-have-an-israeli-sabotage-problem/

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/video-iran-tests-air-raid-sirens-nationwide-preparing-populace-for-large-conflict[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/video-iran-tests-air-raid-sirens-nationwide-preparing-populace-for-large-conflict (DJ-Or are they just testing the air-raid-sirens like we do every month in NL ???)

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/ukraine-massing-troops-on-border-of-russia-favoring-breakaway-provinces-diplomat-says-war[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/ukraine-massing-troops-on-border-of-russia-favoring-breakaway-provinces-diplomat-says-war 

DJ-US "republicans wanted war with China-US democrats want war with Russia"...The US does not want Iran to be a link for Russia with the Indian Ocean, China with Europe and Africa...

[url]https://southfront.org/is-the-ukraine-on-the-brink-of-war-again/[/url] or https://southfront.org/is-the-ukraine-on-the-brink-of-war-again/ 

DJ-The US is also agains Nordstream, Turkstream Russian energy exports to Europe. "We have to buy US LNG or else" Trump did destroy US-EU relations so far Biden is not making things better...

DJ-There are three major risks for humans; War, Climate collapse and Pandemics-and we are not doing enough to stop it ! 

Music-Elections Do You Love Me ? 1973 Sharif Dean [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fBaO3TL2dB0[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fBaO3TL2dB0 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 13 2021 at 10:02pm

DJ, 

The numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ are lower then I expected. Maybe end-of-the-week did see less testing worldwide ? Here in NL second day above 6000 cases-the last time we had that many cases was mid-january. Worldwide the UK variant must be getting the dominant virus-resulting in more cases, more severe disease-in those who did not get vaccinated (in time). Both the UK variant and the increase of cases increase pressure on health care. 

FluTrackers;

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/health-humanitarian-issues/909742-police-clash-with-mourners-at-sarah-everard-vigil-in-london-trampling-flowers-and-candles[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/health-humanitarian-issues/909742-police-clash-with-mourners-at-sarah-everard-vigil-in-london-trampling-flowers-and-candles A UK policeman murdering a young woman. Just like BLM there is a problem in how we interact. 

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/national-international-government-ngo-preparation-response/other-ngo-announcements-incl-red-cross-red-crescent/909741-fda-potential-for-false-results-with-roche-molecular-systems-inc-cobas-sars-cov-2-influenza-test-for-use-on-cobas-liat-system-letter-to-clinical-laboratory-staff-point-of-care-facility-staff-and-health-care-providers[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/national-international-government-ngo-preparation-response/other-ngo-announcements-incl-red-cross-red-crescent/909741-fda-potential-for-false-results-with-roche-molecular-systems-inc-cobas-sars-cov-2-influenza-test-for-use-on-cobas-liat-system-letter-to-clinical-laboratory-staff-point-of-care-facility-staff-and-health-care-providers ;

  • Roche identified that the assay tubes may sporadically leak, causing an obstructed optical path in the Liat analyzer, producing abnormal PCR growth curves. This could lead to invalid or erroneous positive results, particularly for the Flu B test. If a tube leak occurs, later testing runs may have an increased likelihood of false positive Flu B results.
  • Roche determined that abnormal PCR cycling in the reaction tubes may also produce abnormal PCR growth curves, leading to erroneous results. The issue is sporadic and may be caused by multiple factors happening at the same time, such as hardware positioning, volume movement, and curve interpretation. This issue may cause false positive results for multiple analytes (Influenza A, Influenza B and/or SARS-CoV-2) in a single testing run.

DJ-Nothing is 100% perfect-good they found and admitted the problem !

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/909733-three-people-in-norway-treated-for-unusual-symptoms-after-astrazeneca-covid-19-shots[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/909733-three-people-in-norway-treated-for-unusual-symptoms-after-astrazeneca-covid-19-shots ;Three health workers in Norway who had recently received the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine are being treated in hospital for bleeding, blood clots and a low count of blood platelets, Norwegian health authorities said on Saturday.-All three individuals were under the age of 50.

DJ Statistics alone may not provide enough safety. Maybe the vaccine is not safe for some ? 

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/909730-3-hawaii-residents-fully-vaccinated-against-covid-19-are-infected-with-the-coronavirus[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/909730-3-hawaii-residents-fully-vaccinated-against-covid-19-are-infected-with-the-coronavirus DJ-95% protection is NOT 100% protection. That leaves the question of how the "protection gap" between 50%-in this case 95%-and 100% will look like. Will it give room to more dangerous variants ? 

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/909727-poland-reports-21-049-daily-coronavirus-cases-most-since-november[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/909727-poland-reports-21-049-daily-coronavirus-cases-most-since-november DJ-In most of Eastern Europe the "third wave" did start-often with the UK variant.

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/909724-new-coronavirus-variant-found-in-the-philippines-p-3-variant[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/909724-new-coronavirus-variant-found-in-the-philippines-p-3-variantResearchers in the Philippines have discovered a new coronavirus variant which belongs to the same lineage as the Brazilian variant, officials say, but there’s currently not enough data to determine whether it poses a public health threat.

The health department said in a statement Saturday that the Philippine Genome Center had recently found a unique set of mutations, including both E484K and N501Y mutations, in 85 cases. The number of confirmed cases has since risen to 98.

“Upon verification with the Phylogenetic Assignment of Named Global Outbreak Lineages (PANGOLIN), the said samples with these mutations have been reassigned to the P.3 variant, belonging to the B.1.1.28 lineage, to which the P.1 variant also belongs,” the department said.

P.1 is what is commonly referred to as the Brazilian coronavirus variant. Both P.1 and the new P.3 variants have mutations in the spike protein, including E484K and N501Y mutations. This raises concern about the potential for increased transmissibility and immune escape.

...

On Friday, Japan’s health ministry said a traveler from the Philippines had been infected with a new coronavirus variant which poses a similar level of threat ...

DJ-When you look at Brazil you know this P3 may become a major problem soon !

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/909702-immunobiology-why-blood-group-a-individuals-are-at-risk-whereas-blood-group-o-individuals-are-protected-from-sars-cov-2-covid-19-infection-a-hypothesis-regarding-how-the-virus-invades-the-human-body-via-abo[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/909702-immunobiology-why-blood-group-a-individuals-are-at-risk-whereas-blood-group-o-individuals-are-protected-from-sars-cov-2-covid-19-infection-a-hypothesis-regarding-how-the-virus-invades-the-human-body-via-abo DJ-If blood group, age, gender are major factors in this pandemic it may effect the strategy in wich we deal with it. 

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/genetics-aa/909660-j-biosci-pattern-of-genomic-variation-in-sars-cov-2-covid-19-suggests-restricted-nonrandom-changes-analysis-using-shewhart-control-charts[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/genetics-aa/909660-j-biosci-pattern-of-genomic-variation-in-sars-cov-2-covid-19-suggests-restricted-nonrandom-changes-analysis-using-shewhart-control-charts and [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/viral-mechanism/909657-genet-mol-biol-sars-cov-2-and-covid-19-a-perspective-from-environmental-virology[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/viral-mechanism/909657-genet-mol-biol-sars-cov-2-and-covid-19-a-perspective-from-environmental-virology  DJ-There are spots in any virus that show lots of changes, other spots do not mutate at all-what to expect ? Also how does a virus interact with its enviroment ? 

Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EgysBU8Xt0I[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EgysBU8Xt0I on mental health and this pandemic. DJ-It will be different for the several groups. HCW-ers seeing lots of people die may suffer from PTSD, burn-out. But also people willing to do a job, full of energy-forced to sit at home may sink into depression. If you are single-living alone it is different story then when you have a partner to share your live with (at least when the relationship is safe and working). A larger house, parks/shops in the area-all make a difference. Some people like to be alone, others want 24/7 company. 

The duration of this crisis-far from over-and economic consequences also are a burden for mental health for most. One reason I do this "scenario's" for over a year is that I believe it is better "to observe the risk" "see the monster" from a safe place then to try and ignore it. But that may work for me...others may need to claim "the virus is just like the flu" or "if you pray/excersise/meditate you will be saved from infection". 

People have their own defense mechanisms. In communication you have to recognize that. False beliefs may be vital for some...if you are dealing with millions of people you have to go for the groups that are willing to accept cooperation. 

"Music"-Elections The Muppets [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jd8nfEdo59I[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jd8nfEdo59I DJ-I admit that I am not happy with how politicians act...Some may be better then others. Neo-Liberals made the choice to "save the economy" killing millions via a pandemic that should have been controlled. Here in NL "our" PM gets away with his "leadership" that did bring us into the pandemic...I find it hard to trust politicians but also the majority of people "tired of Covid19" that want to believe voting for neo-liberal lies can solve anything... 


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 14 2021 at 10:34pm

DJ,

A look at the weekend numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ . Less testing and reporting but still often-for a sunday-high numbers. Israel is showing a reduction in cases/deaths-so (so far) vaccines may offer a lot of protection. 

Worldwide we are moving towards another wave. Allthough the global number of vaccinations may be in the hundreds of millions most of the vaccinated may not yet have enough time to get immune protection. Several variants-UK variant most in Eastern Europe but also in parts of western Europe, SA variant in Africa, P1 in Brazil-slowly other parts of Latin America and P3 in Phillippines are pushing healthcare to the limits. 

DJ-The P1, P3, SA variants [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2 may evade vaccination/natural immunity to some level. It is very likely by now there must be more variants even further away from "variant zero" that started this pandemic-vaccines can handle. 

On top of that in many countries-now including NL the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccinations have been halted due to concerns over clothing-effects. In most of Europe vaccinations are "not at top speed". So more people remain vulnarable for even the UK variant becoming dominant in Europe. 

Of the SA variant ; [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant#Statistics  4417 cases in 61 countries march 13 is a severe underestimation-but due to lack of testing/sequencing at least gives an indication where to find a lot of them. And Europe has a lot of them (Austria, UK, Belgium ...)

The P1 [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_P.1#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_P.1#Statistics also lots of them in Belgium, UK...The US also has both the SA and P1 variant. 

Mixing of variants creates new variants...by now Covid19 variants very likely did spread into other species creating even more problems. DJ-In my (very limited) vision-again-the only way out may not be in vaccines but in NPI...but room for that may be gone...

The world has been putting trillions in vaccines, treatments, testing, care...but when the virus/variants are not stopped from spreading that money is wasted. Big Pharma did make a lot of money-countries close to bankruptcy so the way out is..

WAR 

DJ-I do not agree with his extreme right wing views [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/russian-tochka-missiles-in-the-air-oil-smugglers-and-depots-being-hit-again-in-syria[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/russian-tochka-missiles-in-the-air-oil-smugglers-and-depots-being-hit-again-in-syria and 

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/the-shooting-has-begun-pro-russian-forces-shoot-down-ukrainian-army-combat-drone[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/the-shooting-has-begun-pro-russian-forces-shoot-down-ukrainian-army-combat-drone 

[url]https://southfront.org/after-libya-and-azerbaijan-turkey-sends-loyal-syrian-militants-to-yemen/[/url] or https://southfront.org/after-libya-and-azerbaijan-turkey-sends-loyal-syrian-militants-to-yemen/ 

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/03/the-war-in-ukraine-may-soon-resume.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/03/the-war-in-ukraine-may-soon-resume.html 

In the Ukraine Turkey is trying to get more influence. In the Armenia war it was Turkey that was the main factor sending "Syrian rebels" (unprepared) to Azerbaijan. But also with drone-warfare killing hundreds of Armenian forces. The Turkish Erdogan-clan is making money out of wars in Syria, Iraq, Libya, Azerbaijan and now Ukraine-all oil related. 

While on the one hand Turkey is partner in the Astana talks with Russia and Iran, and Turkey and Iran may be on the same line regarding the Kurds, Turkey is buying Russian energy via Turkstream, Russian weapons...Turkey is also still in NATO. 

Ukraine is not an official NATO member even with US, UK forces in the frontlines. Ukraine may try to use relations with Iran to get more money (for corruption) from the West. Is TIP becoming UTIP ? Ukraine-Turkey-Iran-Pakistan ? Where is China in this ? It has close ties via the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. It is "a partner"with Iran...Ukraine has a problem with Russia but may want to do bussinesses with China...

The US is "running out of control" in most of the world. In this pandemic it is Russian and Chinese vaccines that are used in most of the world. Cuba and Iran also working together on that field. Since China is the largest energy consumer it can make demands since this pandemic is decrease of the economy in most of the western world. China is buying most of its energy from Russia and "Asian partners" Malaysia, Indonesia, Iran but also from Venezuela...Gulf States have to accept Chinese conditions-in Angola, Mozambique-Africa most of the oil exploration already is in Chinese (companies) hands...

The West can not afford an open war with Russia-Iran-China...it does not have a chance...but by selecting conflicts and partners (Israel, India) it is "slowing down" China. 

Music-elections-Promises-Baby it's You [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eqM3P7LziIc[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eqM3P7LziIc  DJ In Germany [url]https://www.dw.com/en/angela-merkels-cdu-takes-major-hit-in-regional-elections-early-results/a-56870876[/url] or https://www.dw.com/en/angela-merkels-cdu-takes-major-hit-in-regional-elections-early-results/a-56870876 at least the government has to pay for the mistakes they made in this pandemic. In NL [url]https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2021/03/the-2021-general-election-what-you-need-to-know/[/url] or https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2021/03/the-2021-general-election-what-you-need-to-know/ our government parties get away with making even much larger mistakes...very frustrating... (Like trump getting reelected for the way he did (not) deal with the pandemic in the US...)



We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 15 2021 at 1:23pm

DJ WAR

[url]https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/threads/ukraine-march-15.14740/[/url] or https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/threads/ukraine-march-15.14740/ 

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/ukraine-massing-troops-armor-closes-distance-to-400-yards-at-luhansk-donetsk-also-massing-at-crimea[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/ukraine-massing-troops-armor-closes-distance-to-400-yards-at-luhansk-donetsk-also-massing-at-crimea

[url]https://southfront.org/how-erdogan-set-up-network-of-paramilitary-armed-groups-to-promote-ankaras-interests/[/url] or https://southfront.org/how-erdogan-set-up-network-of-paramilitary-armed-groups-to-promote-ankaras-interests/ 

Like in the Armenia-Azarbaijan war Turkey may be the main player convincing Kiev an offensive can be succesfull. US and UK involved (with special forces in the front lines) is "not good"...

Discussion on vaccines;

[url]https://thebulletin.org/2021/03/can-vaccinated-people-transmit-covid-19-the-answer-will-be-key-to-ending-the-pandemic/?utm_source=Newsletter&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=MondayNewsletter03152021&utm_content=DisruptiveTechnology_VaccineCovid_03092021[/url] or https://thebulletin.org/2021/03/can-vaccinated-people-transmit-covid-19-the-answer-will-be-key-to-ending-the-pandemic/?utm_source=Newsletter&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=MondayNewsletter03152021&utm_content=DisruptiveTechnology_VaccineCovid_03092021 

and 

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/virologist-stop-all-covid-vaccines-right-now-covid-vaccine-will-result-in-deadlier-strains-kill-vax-recipents-faster[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/virologist-stop-all-covid-vaccines-right-now-covid-vaccine-will-result-in-deadlier-strains-kill-vax-recipents-faster Vaccines may buy us time-at best-but may not be the solution. We did not use the chances we had to get the virus under control-now it is out of control...(And it may take years to limit the damage..)

DJ-The war and pandemic story are mixed. Western economies may be getting near implosion with trillions going to big pharma NOT solving the problem...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 15 2021 at 1:58pm

https://vaxopedia.org/2021/03/14/who-is-geert-vanden-bossche/

Only Hal Turner would consult a vet for vaccine propaganda.

I am a virologist studying 

the endlessly fascinating struggle between host and pathogen. I use a combination of classical virological techniques and systems biology to study the host response to viral infection and how it causes disease.


B.A., Biological Sciences

Smith College

2000

M.A., Microbiology

Columbia University

2006

M.Phil, Microbiology

Columbia University

2006

Postdoctoral Fellowship

University of Washington

2009-2012

Research Asst. Professor

University of Washington

2014-2016

Affiliate

Georgetown University

Center for Global Health Science and Security

2020-present

Ph.D., Microbiology

Columbia University

2009

Senior Scientist

University of Washington

2012-2014

Assoc. Research Scientist

Columbia Mailman School of Public Health

2016-2020

Research Scientist 3 (Assoc. Prof.)

Vaccine and Infectious Disease Research Organization-

International Vaccine Centre (VIDO-InterVac)

2021-present

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 15 2021 at 11:08pm

ksc-with all respect, what matters for me is how vaccines may effect this pandemic. If a vet has a good story I'm willing to listen. But-again-I have NO medical knowledge, just know something of history-just trying to make some sense...

DJ-All the hope that I can offer is the hope that I am wrong ! "The car moves faster when the wheels do not touch the road" -our "leaders" may mistake "progress" with "collapse"...

In this pandemic the first idea was "herd immunity" just over a year ago. Then came NPI/lockdown-China did start that in Wuhan over a year ago-many countries followed around a year ago..Goal was to keep healthcare going mixed with "slow spread of the virus (R0 just under 1) to create natural herd immunity". The "step forward" is supposed to create "vaccine herd immunity on top of natural herd immunity"....And yes "warpspeed-trillions to big pharma" did produce effective vaccines in a very short time. 

The vaccines are effective against the "old variant", offer a lot of protection to other known variants. But do they stop people from getting infected ? Do they stop the (a-symptomatic) spread ? Or will vaccines deal with "milder variants of Covid19" just to "open the door"to new variants not stopped by vaccine- or natural-immunity ? 

Corona-virusses are known for over 90 years. In (other) animals vaccination has been "a limited succes". In controlled area's with a limited number of hosts vaccines "are effective till evaded". Covid19 is "all over this planet" and a risk not only for humans but also other animals. Billions of possible hosts...

The idea is that "we can vaccinate Covid19"out of this world-while experts claim Covid19 is endemic-will NOT go away..

For now Israel-best in vaccinations-is seeing a succes in bringing cases down. The major problem I (DJ) think is in the numbers...

Some facts (to the best of my knowledge);

-The cheapest vaccine now widely used is the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine-around 3$/€ per vaccination-and a per son needs two vaccines to start with...If you realy want to vaccinate 8 billion people the costs of only the vaccine would be 2x24 billion=48 billion..(With supposed herd immunity from 70% people having some form of immunity costs would be 70%...)

-But with new variants you will need new vaccines-so the costs will go up. As far as I know-please correct me-it is not yet clear how well vaccines can stop infections/spread-it does stop severe illness-for now-and that is good !

-All the known vaccines deal very well-often 90%+-against illness from infection of the old variant. With known new variants the protection is decreasing. So-we have to get new vaccines...(And I think we can decrease the costs of vaccines a lot-by putting the vaccine in a tablet/pill vaccination "can go by mail"-vaccination costs for now are not the major factor). 

-The problem is in the new variants. As long as it is impossible to vaccinate "hundreds of millions of people per day" the virus will find a way to infect, spread, mutate and create "new" variants. The variants that manage to evade/get around vaccine immunity then will become the major pandemic...

-The idea of "One Health" is that humans and (other) animals are not that different. Most diseases spread from other animals into humans. If you do not reduce the risks in/from other animals you keep getting diseases from them spreading in humans. [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zoonosis[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zoonosis 

-So far Covid19 did infect millions of minks. NL and DK stopped mink farming in 2020-killing millions of minks-other countries (UK) stopped mink-farming earlier. But corona-virusses are widespread in animals. MERS is linked with camels, but cows, cats, pigs, birds can get a corona-virus infection. Given the spread of Covid19 variants around the globe it is more then likely a Covid19 variant may be spreading outside humans and minks all ready...

-[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2 Since lack of testing/sequencing in most of the world the real number of variants/infections in Africa, Asia, Latin America must be in the hundreds of millions. 

-In countries we keep poor healthcare was allready far overstretched before the Covid19-pandemic. With this pandemic healthcare in those area's is unable not only to stop the spread of Covid19 but also to control other diseases (Ebola, the plague, African Swine Flu etc). On top of that H5N8 did spread into humans, Malaria is moving north...

DJ-My conclusion is that only much more drastic action can stop this-and other-pandemics. We have to minimize meat consumption-stop keeping animals as "a bio hazard". We have to stop moving all over this planet "just for fun"...We have to stop climate change as a motor for pandemics. But we are not doing any of this..only "vaccines will save us" as a credo...

So the outcome will be things will get worse before they get better-IF they get better...

Two realities; "You can not fix stupid" and "Stupid will kill us all". It is time to start learning !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 15 2021 at 11:50pm

DJ, 

FluTrackers;

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa/ebola-forums/909832-uganda-suspected-ebola-patient-dies-in-kanungu-health[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa/ebola-forums/909832-uganda-suspected-ebola-patient-dies-in-kanungu-health DJ-Ebola "out of control"???? in both Central and West-Africa ?????

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/909828-cidrap-b117-deadlier-than-other-covid-19-strains-more-data-affirm[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/909828-cidrap-b117-deadlier-than-other-covid-19-strains-more-data-affirm ;The B117 COVID-19 variant, which was first identified in the United Kingdom in October 2020, may pose a 61% higher risk of 28-day mortality, according to a study published today in NatureThe finding is in line with last week's BMJ study that reported B117 had a 64% higher 28-day risk of death among people older than 30, although both studies note absolute 28-day mortality risk remains low for most populations.

DJ-Vaccinations may not come in time in many places. The UK variant may be(come) the dominant variant in many western countries.

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/909825-cidrap-news-scan-mers-covid-19-coinfection-covid-adaptations-in-humans-h5n8-avian-flu-in-kuwait[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/909825-cidrap-news-scan-mers-covid-19-coinfection-covid-adaptations-in-humans-h5n8-avian-flu-in-kuwait ;

-Out of 67 intensive care unit (ICU) patients who underwent simultaneous SARS-CoV-2 and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) testing in Saudi Arabia, 8 (11.9%) had coinfections, according to a new Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease study.

-
SARS-CoV-2 has undergone few adaptations since it jumped from bats to humans, sparking the COVID-19 pandemic, a study published late last week in PLOS Biology shows.
UK, US, and Belgian researchers sequenced 133,741 human SARS-CoV-2 genomes from December 2019 to October 2020 and 69 coronavirus genomes from horseshoe bats to identify novel adaptions to the human host.
Lead author Oscar MacLean, PhD, of the University of Glasgow, said in a PLOS news release that the findings don't mean that there have been no changes, only that they have not been evolutionarily significant.
"This stasis can be attributed to the highly susceptible nature of the human population to this new pathogen, with limited pressure from population immunity, and lack of containment, leading to exponential growth making almost every virus a winner," MacLean said.(DJ-Problem is there are may other virusses "out there" with no immunity in humans, still "jumping up and down the planet")

-Animal health officials in Kuwait reported a highly pathogenic H5N8 avian flu outbreak in poultry, marking another recent appearance of the virus in the Middle East.(DJ-It did jump from birds to humans in Russia-very unlikely the Russian event will remain isolated..) See also [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/europe-h5n8-tracking/h5n8-tracking-uk/909824-uk-seal-and-fox-tested-positive-for-avian-origin-hp-h5n8-influenza-virus-oie-march-15-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/europe-h5n8-tracking/h5n8-tracking-uk/909824-uk-seal-and-fox-tested-positive-for-avian-origin-hp-h5n8-influenza-virus-oie-march-15-2021Following histopathological examination of tissues from the fox and seals identified lesions indicative of acute systemic viral infection further laboratory testing was performed at APHA. This testing resulted in the detection of H5N8 influenza virus infection. Gene Sequencing identified this H5N8 influenza virus to be [99.9%] identical to avian-origin H5N8 viruses detected from the Mute swans that had died and been tested from this wildlife rescue centre.

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/909812-california%E2%80%99s-first-case-of-brazilian-variant-p-1-detected-in-san-bernardino-county[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/909812-california%E2%80%99s-first-case-of-brazilian-variant-p-1-detected-in-san-bernardino-county DJ-With very limited testing/sequencing the real number of global variant infections must be in the millions...

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/national-international-government-ngo-preparation-response/who-oms/909803-better-covid-vaccines-are-coming-who%E2%80%99s-chief-scientist-says-march-15-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/national-international-government-ngo-preparation-response/who-oms/909803-better-covid-vaccines-are-coming-who%E2%80%99s-chief-scientist-says-march-15-2021 DJ-I would love to believe "we can vaccinate ourselves out of this pandemic"...but I do not believe so...

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/909796-u-s-air-travel-is-rising-fast-despite-c-d-c-warnings-march-14-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/909796-u-s-air-travel-is-rising-fast-despite-c-d-c-warnings-march-14-2021 DJ-To "save the economy" we need pandemics ????? Are we that stupid ????

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/909794-covid-19-cases-surge-in-europe-leading-to-new-restrictions-march-15-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/909794-covid-19-cases-surge-in-europe-leading-to-new-restrictions-march-15-2021 DJ-But we stop AZ/O vaccinations because of a very small risk that cases of trombosis could have anything to do with the AZ/O (not for profit) vaccine...

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/909763-sci-total-environ-the-presence-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-human-sewage-in-santa-catarina-brazil-november-2019[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/909763-sci-total-environ-the-presence-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-human-sewage-in-santa-catarina-brazil-november-2019 ;SARS-CoV-2 RNA was detected on 27th November 2019 (5.49 ± 0.02 log10 SARS-CoV-2 genome copies (GC) L-1), detection being confirmed by an independent laboratory and genome sequencing analysis. The samples in the subsequent three events were positive by all RT-qPCR assays; these positive results were also confirmed by an independent laboratory. The average load was 5.83 ± 0.12 log10 SARS-CoV-2 GC L-1, ranging from 5.49 ± 0.02 log10 GC L-1 (27th November 2019) to 6.68 ± 0.02 log10 GC L-1 (4th March 2020). Our findings demonstrate that SARS-CoV-2 was likely circulating undetected in the community in Brazil since November 2019, earlier than the first reported case in the Americas (21st January 2020).

DJ-Yet another "much to early" find of Covid19 outside China...

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/909756-influenza-other-respir-viruses-increased-risk-of-rhinovirus-infection-in-children-during-the-coronavirus-disease-19-pandemic[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/909756-influenza-other-respir-viruses-increased-risk-of-rhinovirus-infection-in-children-during-the-coronavirus-disease-19-pandemic ;Results: The frequency of influenza and other respiratory viruses (coxsackievirus A and B; echovirus; enterovirus; human coronavirus 229E, HKU1, NL63, and OC43; human metapneumovirus; human parainfluenza virus 1, 2, 3, and 4; human parechovirus; human respiratory syncytial virus; human adenovirus; human bocavirus; human parvovirus B19; herpes simplex virus type 1; and varicella-zoster virus) was appreciably reduced among all patients during the COVID-19 pandemic except for that of rhinovirus in children younger than 10 years, which was appreciably increased. COVID-19 has not spread among this age group, suggesting an increased risk of rhinovirus infection in children.
Conclusions: Rhinovirus infections should be continuously monitored to understand their increased risk during the COVID-19 pandemic and viral interference with SARS-CoV-2.

DJ-Covid19 did see rduced/no flu activity this flu season. It is unclear if this means we may face a very hard flu season once Covid19 is "under control". 

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/909791-j-pediatric-infect-dis-soc-multisystem-inflammatory-syndrome-associated-with-severe-acute-respiratory-syndrome-coronavirus-2-in-children-a-case-series-from-mayotte-island[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/909791-j-pediatric-infect-dis-soc-multisystem-inflammatory-syndrome-associated-with-severe-acute-respiratory-syndrome-coronavirus-2-in-children-a-case-series-from-mayotte-island ;During the COVID-19 outbreak in the French overseas department Mayotte, 11 children developed multisystem inflammatory syndrome (MIS-C). They all had a fever and gastrointestinal symptoms. Six patients were admitted to intensive care unit; management included intravenous immunoglobulin and corticosteroid. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 was documented in all patients. The risk of developing MIS-C was much higher than in all of France.

DJ-The SA variant is widespread in Mayotte (between Africa and Madagascar). 

-Dr. John Campbell with his view of the pandemic [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eScwlosfxSg[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eScwlosfxSg ; Infections ahead of injections DJ the short summery...

I (DJ) again want to underline that I am NOT an expert ! I do find the picture I am getting "very depressive"...for that reason wonder if I should go on with this...

WAR

-[url]https://southfront.org/one-more-rocket-attack-hits-us-forces-in-iraq-video/[/url] or https://southfront.org/one-more-rocket-attack-hits-us-forces-in-iraq-video/ 

-[url]https://southfront.org/who-is-behind-attacks-on-illegal-oil-smuggling-infrastructure-of-turkish-backed-militants/[/url] or https://southfront.org/who-is-behind-attacks-on-illegal-oil-smuggling-infrastructure-of-turkish-backed-militants/ 

DJ-Many countries are sinking in very deep problems due to this pandemic. A "short military victory" may be welcome for the morale...The short war Turkey did fight against Armenia (via Azarbaijan) may "demand more kicks"....Ukraine is a failed state kept alive by NATO against Russia. The duration of the pandemic-a possible other variant-wave in the US, UK showing the present "herd immunity via vaccination strategy" may not do the job will have global consequences. 

Music-elections Fleetwood Mac- Tell Me Lies [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uCGD9dT12C0[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uCGD9dT12C0 



We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 16 2021 at 10:49pm

DJ,

-A look at the numbers for tuesday march 16 [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ; Brazil reporting record numbers-over 84,000 new cases 2798 new deaths most if not all due to the P1 variant-as far as there is sequencing. Lack of health care capacity does mean other people can not get treatment they need so the real number of pandemic related deaths in a healthcare crisis country (HC3) is higher then the reported number. Peru has been reporting higher numbers for some time, but also Argentina is reporting over 8000 new cases. Vaccinations may limit-for now-the damage in Chile. No doubt the P1 variant now did spread outside Brazil in the region. 

The P3 variant is causing higher numbers in the Phillippines the last week. With limited testing/sequencing in the region the P3 variant may be spreading in nearby islands. Worldwide we are in a new variants-driven wave of the pandemic. 

The idea is that vaccines "will save us"-allthough they offer limited protection against new variants. It is very likely newer variants did get produced via both co-infection in hosts (human or non human) and infection of variants in non humans itself-other animals. 

-[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/03/us-and-its-five-eye-partners-use-persuasion-sabotage-and-disinformation-to-gain-vaccine-supremacy.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/03/us-and-its-five-eye-partners-use-persuasion-sabotage-and-disinformation-to-gain-vaccine-supremacy.html 

FluTrackers;

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/909938-cidrap-astrazeneca-vaccine-doesn-t-prevent-b1351-covid-in-early-trial[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/909938-cidrap-astrazeneca-vaccine-doesn-t-prevent-b1351-covid-in-early-trial ; Two doses of the AstraZeneca-Oxford University COVID-19 vaccine were ineffective against mild-to-moderate infections with the B1351 variant first identified in South Africa, according to a phase 1b-2 clinical trial published today in the New England Journal of Medicine.
The double-blind multicenter study, led by scientists at the South African Medical Research Council Vaccines and Infectious Diseases Analytics Research Unit, studied the safety and the efficacy of the AstraZeneca ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine in HIV-negative adults aged 18 to 64 who received either two standard doses of the vaccine or a placebo in a 1:1 ratio 21 to 35 days apart from Jun 24 to Nov 9, 2020. Median follow-up after the second dose was 121 days. 10.4% effectiveness against variant

DJ-As can be expected newer variants evade (some) vaccines. We may be going for "a race" between variants and vaccines (with variants winning-as long as they are widespread and keep infecting hosts-in that way creating even more variants. Yes-we also will be able to create vaccines against those variants very likely but that proces is much slower. At a certain moment vaccines can not do the job they are expected to do !)

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/907813-treyfish-s-multiple-zoonotics-during-covid-19-pandemic-thread?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/907813-treyfish-s-multiple-zoonotics-during-covid-19-pandemic-thread?view=stream ;Although many health experts around the world must stay focused on the ongoing viral pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2, similar viruses and microbial organisms such as bacteria could create the next global killer. Experts discuss the most likely culprits.

......

The unknown—in this case, novel and maybe even unimaginable diseases—creates the most fear for some people, but there are plenty of known types of diseases to worry about, and some experts see those as the most dangerous. For instance, Amesh Adalja, an expert in preparing for pandemics and a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, says, “The biggest threats are still going to come from ones that we’ve already characterized.” For a top global threat, Adalja picks influenza virus, noting that it “has proven time and time again that it’s capable of causing pandemics and based on its genetic structure it’s really only a matter of time before new strains emerge that have the capacity for efficient human-to-human transmission.”

DJ-Two main ways to slow down pandemic risks; 1-Less animals/cattle (close to humans-we may even have to rethink pets ?) and 2 Much less travel-spreading virusses. Birds/bats already fly enough-we do not have to join them...

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/909927-covid-19-new-philippines-linked-coronavirus-variant-investigated-in-england-after-two-cases-found[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/909927-covid-19-new-philippines-linked-coronavirus-variant-investigated-in-england-after-two-cases-found DJ-P3 in two UK cases is not good. When you look at statistics P3 can be related with more and more severe cases in the Phillippines. In the UK now a VUI Variant Under Investigation see also [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/909724-new-coronavirus-variant-found-in-the-philippines-p-3-variant?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/909724-new-coronavirus-variant-found-in-the-philippines-p-3-variant?view=stream 

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa/ebola-forums/909916-11-kentuckians-have-traveled-to-areas-with-ebola-outbreaks-but-risk-is-low-beshear-says[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa/ebola-forums/909916-11-kentuckians-have-traveled-to-areas-with-ebola-outbreaks-but-risk-is-low-beshear-says DJ-You have to have a very good reason to go to West or Central Africa now...You can spread variants from the US/EU (etc) or catch local diseases...(Ebola is also a RNA-virus disease-though the chances of mixing Covid19 and Ebola is almost 0.)

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/909918-gov-beshear-reports-covid-19-outbreak-in-eastern-ky-nursing-home-appears-to-be-new-variant[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/909918-gov-beshear-reports-covid-19-outbreak-in-eastern-ky-nursing-home-appears-to-be-new-variant ;The governor says a COVID-19 outbreak has been reported at a nursing home in eastern Kentucky. There are 41 cases reported, including five residents that have been hospitalized. Dr. Steven Stack says 30% of vaccinated individuals are symptomatic and 83% of the unvaccinated at the nursing home are showing symptoms. He says the vaccination has reduced symptomatic disease. One of the five residents in the hospital has been vaccinated.

They say it appears to be a different variant from the United Kingdom, Brazil, or South African strain. Dr. Stack says it is the same cluster that they are doing some research on. The name of the facility in eastern Kentucky where this new variant has been detected is not available at this time. The governor says they’re working to identify the facility and better hold of the situation.....

DJ Almost 100% certain the two Kentucky stories are not linked ! And Governers do not decide on new variants-allthough 30% of vaccinated showing symptoms is not good !

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/909905-french-moh-statement-on-new-covid-variant-under-investigation[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/909905-french-moh-statement-on-new-covid-variant-under-investigation ;Late yesterday the French Ministry of Health announced they were investigating a new variant, which - for reasons not fully explained - appears to elude some PCR tests. DJ-Some reports claim infection in the lower respitory system-so hardly finding virus parts in the upper respitory system. Looking at the wrong place...DJ-Lower respitory infection is a major risk-if this (Breton/French) variant is directly going to the lung area it could be alarming !

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/909886-soft-comput-the-prediction-of-the-lifetime-of-the-new-coronavirus-in-the-usa-using-mathematical-models[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/909886-soft-comput-the-prediction-of-the-lifetime-of-the-new-coronavirus-in-the-usa-using-mathematical-models ;The death counts of the USA from February 29 to April 22, 2020, are used in this article as a data set. The death counts of the USA are fitted by the solutions of three mathematical models and a solution to an international problem is achieved. Based on the death rate, the lifetime of the coronavirus COVID-19 is predicted as 1464.76 days from February 29, 2020. That is, after March 2024 there will be no death in the USA due to COVID-19 if everyone follows the guidelines of WHO and the advice of healthcare workers.

DJ-There was also a report on Infection Fatality Ratio...at best it can give some indications but we are still in the middle of one of the worst global health crisis ever...It is very likely to even get worse...We have to stop variants spreading...but we are reopening...

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/india/h5n1-tracking-ah/india-tracking-by-state-territory/jammu-and-kashmir/909833-india-dead-crows-fox-carcasses-trigger-panic-in-north-kashmir-s-lolab[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/india/h5n1-tracking-ah/india-tracking-by-state-territory/jammu-and-kashmir/909833-india-dead-crows-fox-carcasses-trigger-panic-in-north-kashmir-s-lolab ;Quoting locals, news agency GNS reported that dozens of crows were found dead in the Gundmacher area of Lolab early today morning. More than the birds, what puzzled the locals were carcasses of at least three foxes which were spotted in the vicinity.
...
The fresh sightings of the dead birds come nearly a month after the union ministry confirmed the presence of avian influenza or Bird Flu in 14 states and union territories, including Jammu and Kashmir.

DJ-Both H5N1 and H5N8 flu is increasing worldwide. So far mainly in birds-sometimes in other animals. But it is very likely getting closer to become another major health problem. 

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/vaccines-aa/909941-the-ema-covid-19-data-leak-and-what-it-tells-us-about-mrna-instability[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/vaccines-aa/909941-the-ema-covid-19-data-leak-and-what-it-tells-us-about-mrna-instability ;EMA scientists tasked with ensuring manufacturing quality—the chemistry, manufacturing, and control aspects of Pfizer’s submission to the EMA—worried about “truncated and modified mRNA species present in the finished product.” Among the many files leaked to The BMJ, an email dated 23 November by a high ranking EMA official outlined a raft of issues. In short, commercial manufacturing was not producing vaccines to the specifications expected, and regulators were unsure of the implications. EMA responded by filing two “major objections” with Pfizer, along with a host of other questions it wanted addressed....

DJ-Large scale production of vaccines may not (always) be of the best quality. The AZ/O vaccine was known to possibly give trombosis problems. In 0,0002% of cases problems showed up while it was expected to show up in 0,0009% of the cases..(Belgium Health Ministry). Still most of Europe stopped the AZ/O vaccination for several days...

-Dr John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cYdIik4z-h0[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cYdIik4z-h0 

Music No Fun Sex Pistols [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6RPvfJXh-n0[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6RPvfJXh-n0 

This pandemic is getting worse. Here in NL today our "disaster government" may get reelected..."No Fun"!!!

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 16 2021 at 11:42pm

The knock on effect can be bad...  Covid-19 disruptions killed 228,000 children in South Asia, says UN report https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-56425115

that is more than 186,000 Covid deaths so far reported from the region

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 17 2021 at 10:10pm

EdwinSm, To get a realistic view indeed you have to look at excess deaths during/around a pandemic. [url]https://www.euromomo.eu/bulletins/2021-09/[/url] or https://www.euromomo.eu/bulletins/2021-09/ gives the decreasing number of deaths till week 9...Looking forward more and more warnings show up about variants "out of control"...

DJ

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries Brazil reporting 90,830 new cases, 2736 deaths for march 17 statistics. Nearby countries also show increases...since testing is limited, hardly any sequencing the P1 variant most likely is seen as the main factor. However it is very likely the UK variant must be spreading in Latin America as well. The Brazil variants may have some links with African variants from early in this (worsening) pandemic-may go back almost a year. [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america-aa/south-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/910038-brazil-breaches-90-000-covid-cases-in-record-day[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america-aa/south-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/910038-brazil-breaches-90-000-covid-cases-in-record-day 

To stay hopefull a bit Israel numbers-with most of the adult population vaccinated-look good. Still 1475 new cases but only 9 deaths. [url]https://www.debka.com/mivzak/health-officials-slam-high-court-order-to-end-airport-restrictions/[/url] or https://www.debka.com/mivzak/health-officials-slam-high-court-order-to-end-airport-restrictions/ With 1/3 of the population-most children-NOT vaccinated and "opening its borders" (a.o. for tourism) Israel will undo its gains. [url]https://www.timesofisrael.com/government-said-examining-ways-to-curtail-air-travel-despite-court-ruling/[/url] or https://www.timesofisrael.com/government-said-examining-ways-to-curtail-air-travel-despite-court-ruling/ ;United Airlines said it will resume regular service with 13 flights a week from Newark and San Francisco to Tel Aviv. Israeli airlines Israir, Arkia and El Al were also expected to announce the return of multiple routes, Hebrew media reports said.

DJ-This pandemic-with Covid19 itself only being a limited risk-is manmade due to half choices, bad policies...

WARNING : THIS PANDEMIC IS WORSENING !!!!!

Some news from FluTrackers;

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/india/india-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/908521-covid-19-india-in-a-delicate-phase-of-its-coronavirus-battle-as-cases-surge[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/india/india-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/908521-covid-19-india-in-a-delicate-phase-of-its-coronavirus-battle-as-cases-surge ;India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi has warned "we will face trouble" if immediate action is not taken to prevent a new surge of coronavirus cases from getting out of control. Mr Modi has urged all chief ministers of the country's states to take quick and decisive steps to stop the second peak of COVID-19 as the number of nationwide infections reached 11.44 million. He said: "If we do not stop the pandemic right now, then there will be a nationwide break. We have to take immediate steps to stop the emerging second peak. Or else we will face trouble."......

DJ-India already will have a "mega-mix" of all kind of diseases. Overpopulation in mega cities, extreme poverty, animals mixed with humans if there are no "brakes" it can become a mega disaster...

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/910049-11-833-new-covid-19-cases-in-ukraine-in-24-hours[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/910049-11-833-new-covid-19-cases-in-ukraine-in-24-hours ; During the past 24 hours, on March 16, 11,833 people got infected with the coronavirus. Particularly, 609 children and 388 medics as Health Minister Maksym Stepanov reported on Facebook.

Besides, in 24 hours 4,887 people were hospitalized; 289 lethal cases reported; 5,467 people recovered; 121,144 tests were held.

DJ-Good time to restart all kind of wars...most likely UK variant becoming dominant, very likely other variants (and other diseases) increasing...

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/910043-structural-impact-on-sars-cov-2-spike-protein-by-d614g-substitution[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/910043-structural-impact-on-sars-cov-2-spike-protein-by-d614g-substitution ;Substitution for aspartic acid by glycine at position 614 in the spike (S) protein of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 appears to facilitate rapid viral spread. The G614 strain and its recent variants are now the dominant circulating forms.

DJ [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#D614G[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#D614G this mutation is the oldest mutation/variant widespread since the summer of 2020-now being replaced by even newer variants. 

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/910031-cidrap-global-covid-19-cases-rise-for-third-week-in-a-row[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/910031-cidrap-global-covid-19-cases-rise-for-third-week-in-a-row ;All of the WHO regions saw increases last week except for Africa, though 80% of the new cases and deaths were from the Americas and Europe, the group said in its weekly situation report. Though deaths continue to decline overall, they increased last week in two WHO regions: the Eastern Mediterranean and the Western Pacific.
Brazil reported the highest number of cases last week, followed by the United States, France, Italy, and India. Some countries reported notable jumps in cases, including Bangladesh with a 67% rise, Peru with a 58% increase, and the Philippines with a 51% increase. Several reported increases of 30% or more compared to the previous week, including Iran, Jordan, and India.

At a briefing today with officials from the WHO's Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), Carissa Etienne, MBBS, MSc, the group's director, said the number of cases is rising in many South American countries, including Uruguay, Ecuador, and Venezuela. "In the last week, Paraguay's health system issued an urgent warning as hospitals have filled with COVID patients," Dr. Etienne said. "Major cities like Lima and Rio de Janeiro have imposed curfews and lockdowns to control recent spikes."
Regarding Brazil, Sylvain Aldighieri, MD, the group's incident manager, said cases spiked 2 weeks after the Christmas holidays and appear to have spiked again 2 weeks after Carnival, which took place in the middle of February. He added that the implementation of health measures for COVID-19 is suboptimal in most areas and transmission is at very high levels across all regions of the country, a different pattern than the first wave, when only some parts of the country were hit hard.
Across all 27 federal units, which include states and federal districts, intensive care unit (ICU) occupancy has topped 75%, and for 20 of the units, ICU occupancy has exceeded 85%. "We are aware of many patients waiting for ICU beds," he said, adding that PAHO has urged all levels of government to implement strict public health measures guided by epidemiology and science.
Regarding SARS-CoV-2 variants, the WHO said that six more countries reported B117, raising the total to 118. For B1351, six more reported their first cases, pushing the total to 64. And for P1, six more countries reported detections, lifting the number to 38.

DJ-Some reminders; 1-There is hardly any testing in Africa (so no increase means nothing). 2-Most of the global population is not vaccinated or natural immune. 3-The increases of cases are related to variants (P1 and P3 main problem-but most likely the SA variant is "out of control" in (Southern ?) Africa-they are not testing-so no reporting...(The P3 variant is not yet in the WHO statistics ?)

GOOD NEWS !

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/909938-cidrap-astrazeneca-vaccine-doesn-t-prevent-b1351-covid-in-early-trial?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/909938-cidrap-astrazeneca-vaccine-doesn-t-prevent-b1351-covid-in-early-trial?view=stream ;Why is the Johnson & Johnson vaccine a good first choice for the National Vaccination Programme?

It was tested in a large trial of almost 44 000 people from four continents, of whom 7 000 participants came from South Africa.
The study also provided a good picture of how the vaccine works against the new 501Y.V2 variant, which is dominant in South Africa and currently responsible for around nine in 10 of all COVID-19 infections detected during the second wave.
The South African trial showed that while the Johnson & Johnson vaccine is not going to prevent mild symptoms, it provides 57% protection against moderate-severe disease, 85% protection against severe disease and 100% protection against death.
By way of comparison, the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine provided only 27% protection against mild to moderate COVID-19 caused by the new 501Y.V2 variant.

DJ-Some vaccines offering a lot of protection for the more dangerous variants in itself is good news. Still we have to bring infections down-we have to stop new variants...vaccination on itself will not be able to do so !

-Dr.John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ib51P_d8P3g[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ib51P_d8P3g no doubt good info...

DJ-Again I am NOT an expert ! I do NOT have any medical knowledge ! I am trying to make sense of this pandemic with limited history background. 

Several long term problems in this pandemic;

-1 Even "experts"keep underestimating what this virus can do (in variations, spread, number of cases/deaths)

-2 Politics keep making half choices putting economy opposite of healthcare-in that way keep worsening this pandemic

-3 The number of people/hosts infected-basicly billions of possible hosts both human and "non-human"

-4 More trust in Big Pharma then in basic, cheap, fast, reaching all NPI

-5 Unwilling to stop the two main factors behind pandemics enough-international travel and meat production

-6 Global healthcare was already in a crisis before the pandemic started due to lack of funding/priority

-7 The duration of this pandemic makes social rules harder (allthough pandemics normally take years-somehow that part keeps being ignored). 

-8 Arrogance, "in 2020 with all our knowledge we can beat the virus" is ignoring how little we really know

DJ-Based on what earlier pandemics did bring and a lack of political will to stop this pandemic in my view this pandemic has become part of the sixth mass extinction-now including us. It is very likely a next pandemic will not come AFTER but ON TOP of this Covid19 pandemic. With birds spreading H5N1/H5N8 as a major risk. NPI may limit spread of virus in humans/hosts when birds spread H5-flu's in poultry-and via poultry H5 ends up in other hosts it still may spread. 

Ebola, the plague, malaria, cholera etc. for now may stay more regional. But in a major global healthcrisis-and the resulting social collapse-those diseases also may spread via refugees. Also Covid19 itself may be able to create a (few) variant(s) that pose a (much) larger risk-new variants are being created with new record high numbers of infections to be expected the coming months. 

 DJ Music [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZNUIBmw-vI[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZNUIBmw-vI Cass Elliot-Dream a little dream of me...1970

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 18 2021 at 3:02am

DJ-Some other news;

-[url]https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210318-covid-reinfection-rare-more-common-over-65-study[/url] or https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210318-covid-reinfection-rare-more-common-over-65-study ;

The researchers were not able to estimate protection against reinfection with Covid-19 variants -- some of them more transmissible -- that did not emerge until after the period studied.

"Many will find the data... relatively alarming," Professors Rosemary J Boyton and Daniel M Altmann from Imperial College London said in a comment, also in The Lancet.

"Only 80 percent protection from reinfection in general, decreasing to 47 percent in people aged 65 years and older, are more concerning figures than offered by previous studies."

"These data are all confirmation, if it were needed, that for SARS-CoV-2 the hope of protective immunity through natural infections might not be within our reach and a global vaccination programme with high efficacy vaccines is the enduring solution," they wrote.

DJ-If natural infection only offers limited protection with an "explosion" of variants risks of re-infection increases (as most likely is happening in Brazil)

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/03/the-yellow-peril-cause-and-effect.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/03/the-yellow-peril-cause-and-effect.html 

DJ Blaming China for this pandemic does not help ending the pandemic. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/910069-open-letter-to-who-mass-infection-prevention-and-mass-vaccination-with-leaky-covid-19-vaccines-in-the-midst-of-the-pandemic-can-only-breed-highly-infectious-variants[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/910069-open-letter-to-who-mass-infection-prevention-and-mass-vaccination-with-leaky-covid-19-vaccines-in-the-midst-of-the-pandemic-can-only-breed-highly-infectious-variants redirecting to [url]https://www.geertvandenbossche.org/[/url] or https://www.geertvandenbossche.org/ ; Mass infection prevention and mass vaccination with leaky Covid-19 vaccines in the midst of the pandemic can only breed highly infectious variants. DJ-I do not know enough of vaccines, virusinfections but "my basic impression" is NPI-lockdown has to stop virus/variants spread. We can not win a race between variants and vaccines...the variants will win. Even if this Belgian vaccinologist is not 100% correct he may have a point in that vaccines only stop some variants-and in that way will give room for other-more infectious/dangerous variants...

DJ-Allthough widely used by groups against vaccines in general Geert van den Bossche in my opinion deserves attention-does he have a point ? 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 18 2021 at 3:50am

Addressing Geert Vanden Bossche’s Claims

Written By Edward Nirenberg

The short version: Geert Vanden Bossche has recently published a letter in which he argues that the vaccination campaign against COVID-19 is going to precipitate a public health disaster because the vaccines will select for viral variants that can escape their protection and drive them towards higher virulence. His claims are speculative, he offers no evidence to support his arguments, and makes several comments which are blatantly incorrect. The core of his argument relies on the assumption that COVID-19 vaccines do not have a significant effect on transmission. This has been repeatedly confirmed to be false in multiple studies. Furthermore, even if his assumptions about the effects of the vaccine on transmission are true, his conclusions are incorrect based on established precedent from Marek’s disease, a viral illness of birds with a vaccine that does not strongly affect transmission- but it still shows meaningful public health benefits in the populations of chickens where it is used. The vaccines will absolutely be critical to ending the pandemic, and fortunately the modular nature of the technology allows for rapid reformulation and adjustment as necessary (and thus far, though precautions are being taken with novel variants to produce vaccines specific to their set of problematic mutations, there isn’t significant enough evidence to suggest that total reformulation of the vaccines is needed), but no issues raised in this letter warrant a re-evaluation of our current COVID-19 vaccination policy.

https://www.deplatformdisease.com/blog/addressing-geert-vanden-bossches-claims

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 18 2021 at 11:17pm

ksc-Thank you for the info on Geert van den Bossche. (GvdB) I just do not know what to think of it. I do believe we need to get virus/variant spread down as a top 1 priority. Vaccines may help offering limited protection but the large numbers of hosts and virus/variants spread make vaccination having lots of limits. I Hope to see some discussion on FluTrackers on GvdB as well...

A major question remains on how well vaccines stop people getting infected/spreading the virus/variants-it is good that so far vaccines offer good protection against severe disease.[url]https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2021/02/articles/animals/other-animals/mink-vaccination-against-sars-cov-2-good-or-bad/[/url] or https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2021/02/articles/animals/other-animals/mink-vaccination-against-sars-cov-2-good-or-bad/ ;

Vaccines can be used for a number of reasons, but I’ll focus on two broad categories:

  • Reduce/eliminate disease
  • Reduce/eliminate infection

There are important differences between these purposes.  Ideally we want a “sterilizing” vaccine, which prevents infection altogether. That means when the virus encounters a vaccinated individual, it doesn’t do anything – it can’t replicate enough to establish an infection.

Unfortunately, most vaccines aren’t that good. Most vaccines can reduce the likelihood of disease or severity of disease, but the virus can still commonly infect vaccinated individuals to some degree.  That can still be useful, as the primary goal is usually to reduce illness.  However, if those infected but somewhat protected individuals can still transmit the virus to others, it’s not as good for disease control overall.

-

More risk of mutations?

Virus mutations are random events, but the more a virus spreads and replicates, the greater the risk that these random events can occur. If a mutation results in increased transmissibility, increased virulence or poorer vaccine effectiveness, and that strain spread back into people, that’s obviously bad.  If the virus is circulating silently on a farm, it is likely to do so for longer before it’s detected and brought under control, providing more opportunity for mutant strains to emerg.

Encouraging vaccine-resistant mutants

A vaccine that’s only marginally effective might actually help select for vaccine-resistant  mutants of the virus. The big concern with that is if those mink vaccine-resistant mutants are also resistant to human vaccines, and then they spread to people, then that strain could spread even within the vaccinated human population. We don’t know if this is an issue, but it’s been raised in the context of people with suboptimal immunity to SARS-CoV-2 after only receiving a single vaccine dose, while awaiting their second dose.

-

If it’s going to be done, we need to make sure it’s done right. Cheap, rushed, suboptimal vaccines (in humans or animals) might make things worse. There are enough examples of pretty useless vaccines for animals that are on the market, so it’s a realistic issue. Conditional licencing of animal vaccines usually doesn’t require much data beyond indicating it’s unlikely to be harmful in the individual, but doesn’t account for potential effects at the population level.

The best way to prevent issues in mink is to reduce circulation of the virus in people, so the mink don’t get exposed through infected people in the first place.  Keeping people away from mink and using better infection control practices are also important (or having fewer captive mink).

DJ

In latest news more on MERS/SARS-2 mix-risks. I think that if these two corona-virusses did not find a way to recombine yet maybe there could be some limiting factor ? It looks like we do not know enough of it. 

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries DJ-US and Brazil in the top for new cases but India and France show (strong) increase of cases (with France already being in lockdown). Also Eastern Europe Poland, Ukraine in serious (UK variant) problem-with very limited vaccine protection. Israel on #50 for 1384 new cases-with a population of 9,2 million why do cases not go down...still a lot of spread via children ? Or in the orthodox community ? Or both ? 

FluTrackers 

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/910165-cidrap-older-adults-more-apt-to-get-covid-19-reinfection-study-finds[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/910165-cidrap-older-adults-more-apt-to-get-covid-19-reinfection-study-finds ;Protection against reinfection was 80.5%.

DJ-One conclusion could be to rely more on vaccines-in my eyes it underlines the need for more NPI to keep viral spread down...

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/910142-eurosurv-case-fatality-risk-of-the-sars-cov-2-variant-of-concern-b-1-1-7-in-england-16-november-to-5-february[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/910142-eurosurv-case-fatality-risk-of-the-sars-cov-2-variant-of-concern-b-1-1-7-in-england-16-november-to-5-february ;The SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant of concern (VOC) is increasing in prevalence across Europe. Accurate estimation of disease severity associated with this VOC is critical for pandemic planning. We found increased risk of death for VOC compared with non-VOC cases in England (hazard ratio: 1.67; 95% confidence interval: 1.34–2.09; p?DJ-It would be wise to increase (=double) hospital/ICU capacity NOW !!!!

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/asia-ad/asia-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/910147-third-generation-covid-19-variant-described-in-the-philippines[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/asia-ad/asia-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/910147-third-generation-covid-19-variant-described-in-the-philippines ;  Their genome sequencing efforts and following report denote 13 lineage-defining mutations, which likely have serious biological significance. Among these mutations are several shared by B.1.1.248 and P.1. These variants could be a blueprint for the biological implications of the P.3 mutations.

DJ-We know what the P1 (Brazil) variant is/does but the B.1.1.248 ; [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_P.1[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_P.1 ;Initial reports claimed that both P.1 and P.2 were two separate and different descendants of the Brazilian B.1.1.248 variant.[15][16] However, B.1.1.248 later lost its status as a distinct variant and was reclassified to B.1.1.28.

DJ-(Re)Naming variants is making this story hard/impossible to follow. And that is bad since "main stream media" do-again-a very bad job/lost interest-"no advertising value" in one of the top 3 major risks for humanity...

If journalists get their "research" from sites like this it is okay-be open about it ! Ask questions-let "us"do the research !

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/910125-medicine-baltimore-co-infections-of-sars-cov-2-with-multiple-common-respiratory-pathogens-in-infected-children-a-retrospective-study[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/910125-medicine-baltimore-co-infections-of-sars-cov-2-with-multiple-common-respiratory-pathogens-in-infected-children-a-retrospective-study ;Co-infection was relatively common in children with COVID-19, almost 1/3 had co-infection, most commonly caused by MP. Co-infection did not cause a significant exacerbation in clinical manifestations.

DJ-It is good they are testing vaccines for younger age groups. Maybe children themselves may show less symptoms-co-infections in time will mean variants !

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/910116-microb-pathog-mutations-in-sars-cov-2-consequences-in-structure-function-and-pathogenicity-of-the-virus[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/910116-microb-pathog-mutations-in-sars-cov-2-consequences-in-structure-function-and-pathogenicity-of-the-virus ;Although the SARS-CoV-2 genome is more stable than SARS-CoV or MERS-CoV, it has a relatively high dynamic mutation rate with respect to other RNA viruses. It's noteworthy that, some mutations can be founder mutations and show specific geographic patterns. Undoubtedly, these mutations can drive viral genetic variability, and because of genotype-phenotype correlation, resulting in a virus with more/lower/no decrease in natural pathogenic fitness or on the other scenario, facilitating their rapid antigenic shifting to escape the host immunity and also inventing a drug resistance virus, so converting it to a more infectious or deadly virus. Overall, the detection of all mutations in SARS-CoV-2 and their relations with pathological changes is nearly impossible, mostly due to asymptomatic subjects. In this review paper, the reported mutations of the SARS-CoV-2 and related variations in virus structure and pathogenicity in different geographic areas and genotypes are widely investigated. Many studies need to be repeated in other regions/locations for other people to confirm the findings. Such studies could benefit patient-specific therapy, according to genotyping patterns of SARS-CoV-2 distribution.

DJ-Translation-due to the large numbers, possible hosts, it is almost impossible to follow developments of this virus mutations. Again-we need to bring virus spread down !

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/910099-cureus-stay-at-home-orders-are-associated-with-emergence-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variants[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/910099-cureus-stay-at-home-orders-are-associated-with-emergence-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variants ;While public health strategies to contain the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic are primarily focused on social distancing and isolation, emerging evidence suggest that in some regions social isolation failed to lead to further decrease in the number of COVID-19 deaths in the long run. This apparent paradox was particularly observed in the northern region of Brazil, in the state of Amazonas. We hypothesized that the emergence of new severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) mutations, leading to more transmissible and pathogenic variants, could explain the lack of further reductions in COVID-19 new cases and related deaths in some regions. Our objective is to determine if social isolation is associated with the emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants, particularly the P.1 lineage and E484K mutants, in Brazil and in the state of Amazonas.

-

Conclusion The results of this study indicate that SII above 40% is associated with the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 E484K variants and P.1 lineage in the state of Amazonas, which was not observed in overall Brazil.
Social Isolation Index (SII),

DJ-So social isolation would be a motor behind variants ????  How good was the isolation ? Or did the virus get the chance to spread in a smaller group and "collect mutations"? See also [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/910084-lancet-infect-dis-the-temporal-association-of-introducing-and-lifting-non-pharmaceutical-interventions-with-the-time-varying-reproduction-number-r-of-sars-cov-2-a-modelling-study-across-131-countries[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/910084-lancet-infect-dis-the-temporal-association-of-introducing-and-lifting-non-pharmaceutical-interventions-with-the-time-varying-reproduction-number-r-of-sars-cov-2-a-modelling-study-across-131-countries ;Interpretation: Individual NPIs, including school closure, workplace closure, public events ban, ban on gatherings of more than ten people, requirements to stay at home, and internal movement limits, are associated with reduced transmission of SARS-CoV-2, but the effect of introducing and lifting these NPIs is delayed by 1-3 weeks, with this delay being longer when lifting NPIs. These findings provide additional evidence that can inform policy-maker decisions on the timing of introducing and lifting different NPIs, although R should be interpreted in the context of its known limitations.

DJ-I think NPI/social distancing should be related to how large a household/group is. Two people living in NPI means R0 going down-a large family/student housing in isolation could see a lot of infections and mutations when the virus finds a way in...

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/910080-cell-evidence-of-escape-of-sars-cov-2-variant-b-1-351-from-natural-and-vaccine-induced-sera[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/910080-cell-evidence-of-escape-of-sars-cov-2-variant-b-1-351-from-natural-and-vaccine-induced-sera ;Here, we describe a structure-function analysis of B.1.351 using a large cohort of convalescent and vaccinee serum samples. The receptor-binding domain mutations provide tighter ACE2 binding and widespread escape from monoclonal antibody neutralization largely driven by E484K, although K417N and N501Y act together against some important antibody classes. In a number of cases, it would appear that convalescent and some vaccine serum offers limited protection against this variant.

DJ-Natural/vaccine immunity is "under variants pressure" with more variants on their way the need for new vaccines will increase. 

Yesterday I described my view of this pandemic as part of the sixth mass extinction. [url]https://earth.org/sixth-mass-extinction-of-wildlife-accelerating/[/url] or https://earth.org/sixth-mass-extinction-of-wildlife-accelerating/ In my-non scientific-view (again I am NOT an expert !!!) there is a very serious risk of Covid19 getting variants that can do much more damage. Dealing with this pandemic should be a global top priority ! But still it is not...(Maybe I am overdoing the risks-better safe then sorry...we have been underestimating this virus for much to long).

WAR

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/breaking-news-all-russia-nato-contacts-now-cut-off-fierce-military-clashes-begin-in-eastern-ukraine[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/breaking-news-all-russia-nato-contacts-now-cut-off-fierce-military-clashes-begin-in-eastern-ukraine 

US-China talks going wrong, US agression in the Middle East etc...Vaccine-war this is NOT the way to get out of a crisis !!!!

Music; Mozart for Dogs [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QQpH_FL93zE[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QQpH_FL93zE from the 1984 movie "Amadeus"..


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tabitha111 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 19 2021 at 8:35am

Of note:

Brian Levine, MD on Twitter: 

My 99-year-old home bound grandmother, 2 weeks shy of her 100th birthday, has tested positive for COVID. She was infected by my fully vaccinated mother who also tested positive. You can still contract and transmit COVID after vaccination. Be careful. Prayers appreciated.


comment: the grandmother was not vaccinated. the mother was fully vaccinated in Feb. The mother has mild cold symptoms that she thought was "only a cold" 

'A man who does not think and plan long ahead will find trouble right at his door.'
--Confucius

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 19 2021 at 10:20am

Tabitha111, suppose mass a-symptomatic spread via untested animals..."because they can not get Covid19"...

WAR

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/russia-deploying-s-500-prometheus-anti-aircraft-system-to-crimea-ukraine-operational-area-as-us-nato-vessels-enter-black-sea[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/russia-deploying-s-500-prometheus-anti-aircraft-system-to-crimea-ukraine-operational-area-as-us-nato-vessels-enter-black-sea 

[url]https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/threads/ukraine-march-15.14740/[/url] or https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/threads/ukraine-march-15.14740/ 

[url]https://southfront.org/dangerous-escalation-in-ukraine-russia-warns-of-total-war-threat/[/url] or https://southfront.org/dangerous-escalation-in-ukraine-russia-warns-of-total-war-threat/ 

NATO forces entering the Black Sea while Ukraine is preparing to attack Crimea...[url]https://www.rt.com/russia/518573-biden-putin-killer-comment-escalation/[/url] or https://www.rt.com/russia/518573-biden-putin-killer-comment-escalation/ 

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/03/us-aggressiveness-will-accelerate-its-demise.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/03/us-aggressiveness-will-accelerate-its-demise.html The US$ is linked to global energy trading since the early seventies. If countries did not want energy traded in US$ they could see a US/NATO invasion (Iraq, Libya).

The basis of US foreign policy is to control oil/gas/pipelines/logistics-because the US NEEDS to control the energy to avoid a collapse of the US$ and the US economy. But conflict now is "unwise". Even a war with Iran may be "more then the US can handle"...Both Russia and China will not accept a US/Israel attack on Iran. [url]https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2021/03/19/647644/New-drone-strike-targets-Aramco-facility-in-Riyadh[/url] or https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2021/03/19/647644/New-drone-strike-targets-Aramco-facility-in-Riyadh

All "things are moving" towards a confrontation between the US and Russia in the Ukraine. But when things "get out of hand there" it may open the door the US/Israel agression against Iran. 

DJ-NATO partners are "divided" on US foreign insanity-Germany wants NorthStream=Russian gas. Southern Europe expects energy via Turkstream-from Russia. France and Russia may have even better ties than France has with the US...

Of course war and pandemics in history go hand-in-hand...The Ukraine pandemic situation is a disaster on its own in a banktrupt corrupt country. The Kiev regime may need an escalation to stay in power...

Worldwide we are in another wave-proberbly more worse then earlier-with lots of Covid variants...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 19 2021 at 10:40pm

DJ

For me there are some major questions at this moment; 

1-On what scale can vaccinated people still get/spread the virus/variants without major warning/symptoms ? Are they isolated cases or widespread ?

2-The idea a virus has a limited flexability in mutations seems realistic-how much mutations/recombinations are possible for Covid19 ? Do they all follow a limited number of route's ? Some (partly known) weak spots in the RNA ? 

3-Can politics create a society that is more pandemic proof-why are they not doing so in many countries (I think China may be able to give info-lots of testing/sequencing will help..) What are the limits (smart camera's in city street detecting all with a higher temperature ? 

4-Why Covid19 is still not widespread in some other species ? It was/is widespread in minks but they get killed anyway...

5-When I call this pandemic part of a sixth mass extinction that is to discuss it...to take it serious and do the best to slow it down. Can we slow it down enough to find solutions ? We have to keep trying "till we drop"...

-The numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries ; Brazil keeps reporting alarming high numbers-but also countries in the region see high numbers-how widespread is the P1 variant ? How long can oxygen/medication (to deal with ICU patients) last in Brazil. Some reports they may run out in two weeks...Do Chile (Chinese) vaccinations protect against the P1 variant ? Israel may indicate vaccines make a major difference so far...But still many countries around the globe in crisis-even with NPI...

-FluTrackers; (Because FluTrackers often answer more of my questions then Dr. John Campbell does-he has good info-but often leaves many of my questions unanswered..)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america-aa/south-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/910285-chile-at-the-limit-of-its-hospital-capacity-after-rebound-in-cases[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america-aa/south-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/910285-chile-at-the-limit-of-its-hospital-capacity-after-rebound-in-cases ;The occupancy of beds in intensive care units (ICU) in Chile reached its highest level to date, close to 95 percent, due to the second wave of covid-19 that the country suffers, which this Friday reported 6,604 new infections , the third highest peak in the entire pandemic.

-

The southern summer holidays plunged Chile into a second wave of covid-19 that increased the weekly average of new infections per day to 5,075, according to the university report.

-

In parallel, Chile is continuing with a vaccination plan that so far is one of the fastest in the world and has already managed to inoculate more than 5 million people, a figure that encompasses the entire population at risk. The next goal set by the Government is to inoculate before June the rest of the target population (about 15 million people, out of a total population of 19 million

DJ-It may be to early to see how well vaccinations work out in Chile-the article does not mention variants-but it is likely UK/P1 variants are increasing in Chile...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america-aa/south-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/910284-in-brazil-covid-increasingly-hitting-the-young[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america-aa/south-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/910284-in-brazil-covid-increasingly-hitting-the-young ;Before the trend emerged last December, the 30- to 59-year-old age group represented 20 percent of Covid-19 deaths in Brazil. In about three months, that figure increased to 27 percent, according to health ministry data. Meanwhile, the share of the death toll for over-60s fell from 78 percent to 71 percent. "Half the (Covid-19) patients hospitalized in our nursing wards are under 60," said Luiz Carlos Pereira Junior, the director of Emilio Ribas. A year ago, at the start of the first wave in Brazil, that figure was 35 percent, he said...

DJ-Vaccinations hardly can be a factor in Brazil so most likely the P1 variant may be hitting younger age groups harder (like the SA variant)...it of course could be explained by older people being lesss social active...it does not have to be in the virus/variant RNA...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/910280-cidrap-cdc-updates-covid-school-guidance-oks-3-feet-distancing[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/910280-cidrap-cdc-updates-covid-school-guidance-oks-3-feet-distancing ;The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) today updated its guidance on school reopening and said that for most elementary and middle schools across the country, at least 3 feet of physical distancing is sufficient when masks are worn properly.

DJ-I think this is "unwise" we have to move towards a "pandemic-proof" society-and that means limiting social contacts. Of course people want to meet eachother-and you have to create safe conditions for that-but schools the "old way" are asking for health issues...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/910247-nature-five-reasons-why-covid-herd-immunity-is-probably-impossible-march-18-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/910247-nature-five-reasons-why-covid-herd-immunity-is-probably-impossible-march-18-2021 ; (redirection [url]https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00728-2?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_content=organic&utm_campaign=NGMT_USG_JC01_GL_Nature[/url] or https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00728-2?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_content=organic&utm_campaign=NGMT_USG_JC01_GL_Nature ) ;

Most estimates had placed the threshold at 60–70% of the population gaining immunity, either through vaccinations or past exposure to the virus. But as the pandemic enters its second year, the thinking has begun to shift

-

1 “Herd immunity is only relevant if we have a transmission-blocking vaccine. If we don’t, then the only way to get herd immunity in the population is to give everyone the vaccine,” 

2The speed and distribution of vaccine roll-outs matters for various reasons,

3Even as vaccine roll-out plans face distribution and allocation hurdles, new variants of SARS-CoV-2 are sprouting up that might be more transmissible and resistant to vaccines. “We’re in a race with the new variants,”

4it seems that infection-associated immunity wanes over time, so that needs to be factored in to calculations. “

5The problem is that, as more people are vaccinated, they will increase their interactions, and that changes the herd-immunity equation, which relies in part on how many people are being exposed to the virus. “The vaccine is not bulletproof,” he says. Imagine that a vaccine offers 90% protection: “If before the vaccine you met at most one person, and now with vaccines you meet ten people, you’re back to square one.”

DJ-On FluTrackers part of the discussion in French with an answer in German...I think languages are important-it would be good if there was some international website translating major news from/into Spanish, French, English, Russian, Chinese...we may be missing lots of info because of translation problems...On the Nature article-good info-but I have been warning for that since months ....! So please WHO, CDC give me a job because as a "non expert" I my have less of a tunnel vision ! Non-medical experts, data specialists, modelmakers seem to be able to get a better picture of what to expect...!

We can "vaccinate till we drop" but that will NOT stop this pandemic !!!! Still a mix of "experts" and "politics" lead us further into the pandemic swamp...good read-not that long-the Nature-article...!

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/910252-preprint-identification-of-novel-bat-coronaviruses-sheds-light-on-the-evolutionary-origins-of-sars-cov-2-and-related-viruses[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/910252-preprint-identification-of-novel-bat-coronaviruses-sheds-light-on-the-evolutionary-origins-of-sars-cov-2-and-related-viruses ;We describe a meta-transcriptomic study of 411 samples collected from 23 bat species in a small (~1100 hectare) region in Yunnan province, China, from May 2019 to November 2020. We identified coronavirus contigs in 40 of 100 sequencing libraries, including seven representing SARS-CoV-2-like contigs. From these data we obtained 24 full-length coronavirus genomes, including four novel SARS-CoV-2 related and three SARS-CoV related genomes... (DJ-Are there already other forms of COrona VIrus Diseases in bats-ready to jump to other species ? Answer is-Yes most likely we are "lucky" so far..)

and [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/910251-timing-the-sars-cov-2-index-case-in-hubei-province[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/910251-timing-the-sars-cov-2-index-case-in-hubei-province ;Our results define the period between mid-October and mid-November 2019 as the plausible interval when the first case of SARS-CoV-2 emerged in Hubei province. By characterizing the likely dynamics of the virus before it was discovered, we show that over two-thirds of SARS-CoV-2-like zoonotic events would be self-limited, dying out without igniting a pandemic...

DJ-SARS-2 virus parts showed up in sewage samples in 2019 in many parts of the world...Could it be from bats-droppings in sewage water ? If you want to "limit the risks of a next pandemic" you have to take a look at all possibilities. (Anti-China stupidity does NOT help !)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/canada/canada-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/910249-ontario-s-3rd-wave-of-covid-19-could-hit-younger-adults-harder-here-s-why[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/canada/canada-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/910249-ontario-s-3rd-wave-of-covid-19-could-hit-younger-adults-harder-here-s-why ;"We're at a real risk right now of the variants of concern taking off, and that prime age group of 40 to 75 being hit really hard by this wave, particularly with the variants being more likely to cause serious illness that requires more hospitalization,"

DJ-Comparing the Spanish Flu of 1918 to Covid19 is false-due to this corona-virus going for variants like it did in other species. But if this corona-virus disease developed in 1918 would it have killed most of humanity ? In 2019/20 it did spread faster but much better medical care and NPI so far managed to keep "cases somewhat under control"...We need to speed up vaccinations to save lives, but also we have to stick to NPI to keep virus/variants spread as limited as possible...(And work on a long term agenda to reduce meat production and reduce airtravel-also helping against climate collapse. Better communications also would help...) We may still have the worst part of this pandemic before us...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/910214-open-forum-infect-dis-sars-cov-2-infection-among-health-care-workers-despite-the-use-of-surgical-masks-and-physical-distancing-the-role-of-airborne-transmission[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/910214-open-forum-infect-dis-sars-cov-2-infection-among-health-care-workers-despite-the-use-of-surgical-masks-and-physical-distancing-the-role-of-airborne-transmission ; A key question in the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic is whether SARS-CoV-2 could be transmitted via the airborne route as well. We report for the first time SARS-CoV-2 nosocomial infections despite using surgical masks and physical distancing. This report may provide possible evidence for airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2.

DJ Like running out of oxygen, medications to "keep patients in their ICU-beds" we may be running out of HCW-ers...We did see discussion on airborne transmission on this forum earlier-there is not such a clear definition-but SARS-2 virus parts in dry air (so less moisture making them heavier) may be "airborne" and can stay in the air for up to 30 minutes...See also; [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/910231-virol-j-covid-19-infection-among-healthcare-workers-a-cross-sectional-study-in-southwest-iran[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/910231-virol-j-covid-19-infection-among-healthcare-workers-a-cross-sectional-study-in-southwest-iran ;Results: Our data demonstrated a rate of 5.62% (273 out of 4854 cases) infection among HCW, with a mean age of 35 years and a dominance of female cases (146 cases: 53.5%). The majority of infected cases were among nurses (51.3%), while the most case infection rate (CIR) was among physicians (27 positive cases out of 842 performed test (3.2%)). Also, the highest rate of infection was in the emergency rooms (30.6%). Also, 35.5% of the patients were asymptomatic and the most frequent clinical features among symptomatic patients were myalgia (46%) and cough (45.5%). Although 5.5% were admitted to hospitals, there were no reports of ICU admission. Furthermore, 10.3% of the cases reported transmitting the infection to family and friends. Regarding safety precautions, 1.6% didn't wear masks and 18.7% didn't use gloves in work environments.
Conclusion: HCWs are among the highest groups at risk of infection during the COVID-19 pandemic; therefore, evaluating infection rates and associated features is necessary to improve and adjust protective measures of these vulnerable, yet highly essential group.

DJ-A good study from Iran...Due to insanity the US/Israel/KSA are preparing to kill the writers of this study...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/910210-open-forum-infect-dis-bacterial-superinfections-among-persons-with-coronavirus-disease-2019-a-comprehensive-review-of-data-from-postmortem-studies[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/910210-open-forum-infect-dis-bacterial-superinfections-among-persons-with-coronavirus-disease-2019-a-comprehensive-review-of-data-from-postmortem-studies ;Conclusions: Potential bacterial lung superinfections were evident at postmortem examination in 32% of persons who died with COVID-19 (proven, 8%; possible, 24%), but they were uncommonly the cause of death.

DJ-People with severe disease are very likely to get other infections on top of what is making them ill, AND possibly spreading those diseases...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/910291-researchers-hunt-for-cause-of-rare-covid-19%E2%80%93linked-immune-disease-in-children[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/910291-researchers-hunt-for-cause-of-rare-covid-19%E2%80%93linked-immune-disease-in-children ;Both adults and children with acute COVID-19 had high levels of inflammation and immune activation, in which immune cells get revved up to target potential harms—but in MIS-C patients, the degree of activation sometimes exceeded that of the sickest adult patients, the researchers reported this month in Science Immunology. One subgroup of immune cells stood out: the so-called “vascular patrolling” T cells. Their high activation, suggesting they were targeting blood vessels, could explain the cardiac inflammation and aneurysms in some patients.

Vella and her colleagues also noted that despite the rampant inflammation in the MIS-C patients, it abated quickly with treatment. “They can turn this around with therapy,” Vella says, whereas people with COVID-19 experienced longer lasting inflammation.

...
Pascual is exploring whether SARS-CoV-2 causes a subtle immune system abnormality, perhaps in immune system precursor cells, and subsequent exposure to another virus—a “second hit”—sends the immune system into overdrive. The good news, Pascual says, is “all these hypotheses are testable.”...

DJ-Children are not enough part of how we deal with this pandemic.

ksc-this one for you [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/910069-open-letter-to-who-mass-infection-prevention-and-mass-vaccination-with-leaky-covid-19-vaccines-in-the-midst-of-the-pandemic-can-only-breed-highly-infectious-variants-or-not[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/910069-open-letter-to-who-mass-infection-prevention-and-mass-vaccination-with-leaky-covid-19-vaccines-in-the-midst-of-the-pandemic-can-only-breed-highly-infectious-variants-or-not ;Vanden Bossche’s idea is captured in his statement that “any intervention that increases the population’s immune pressure on the virus *without eradicating the virus* will inevitably lead to selective viral immune escape.”

So Vanden Bossche’s argument goes something like this: because mass vaccination increases “immunological pressure” on the virus it leads to selection of variants capable of evading the immune response. He tries to make an analogy to antibiotic resistant bacteria, which emerge because of the inappropriate overuse of antibiotics.

But these are straw-man arguments Vanden Bossche is making in order to ultimately drive the point that the world should abandon mass vaccinations in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

This is a profoundly dangerous public health argument, because a logical error sits at its core: That the immunological selective pressure introduced by vaccine immunity is the dominant source of mutant variants.

This assumption is simply false.

DJ [url]https://noorchashm.medium.com/vanden-bossches-dangerous-fallacy-en-mass-vaccination-not-natural-infection-as-the-source-of-bf60b6b8de73[/url] or https://noorchashm.medium.com/vanden-bossches-dangerous-fallacy-en-mass-vaccination-not-natural-infection-as-the-source-of-bf60b6b8de73 good info ! Related [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/906921-36-yr-old-memphis-surgeon-dies-of-multisystem-inflammatory-syndrome-weeks-after-receiving-second-covid-vaccine-antibodies-to-covid-virus-and-vaccine-found[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/906921-36-yr-old-memphis-surgeon-dies-of-multisystem-inflammatory-syndrome-weeks-after-receiving-second-covid-vaccine-antibodies-to-covid-virus-and-vaccine-found 

Other news [url]http://www.thebigwobble.org/2021/03/proliferation-of-animal-pests-rat.html[/url] or http://www.thebigwobble.org/2021/03/proliferation-of-animal-pests-rat.html DJ With offices, restaurants closed for months rats/mice move in-bringing further risks. 

DJ-In these "scenario"s" I take as much room as I think is needed to evaluate where we are-limited most often by time-not lack of news...

-Dr.John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9-tey8sfT6w[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9-tey8sfT6w Good info-not only on vaccines but also on third wave, Cuba vaccines experience. Europe willing to go for Sputnik-5 vaccine (DJ-The producers-from Moscow-did work with Oxford on the AZ/O vaccine-it would be welcome if the UK, Swedish and Russian experts could cooperate further-we NEED international cooperation to get out of this crisis. )

-France SA variant 5 to 10% of cases, with UK variant widespread (and Breton variant evading testing)

-Dr.J.C. keeps overestimating what vaccines can do. In total numbers the EU may not be that far behind the US. Some parts of the US had problems in vaccinations due to winterweather..

-Dr. J.C. Cuba has to work with Iran because (DJ) "some western countries have problems with Cuba" (US, UK mostly... rather support fascists and IS..). Untrue-most of Latin American countries DO work with Cuba. But Cuba has limited production capacity. 

-Indian production of AZ/O vaccine may be in problems due to US export-bans of essentials to India. India also producing vaccines for the UK (and EU).

-Papua New Guinea is in a major health crisis and needs vaccines from Australia. Due to a conflict with the EU AZ/O vaccines will not go from the EU to Australia (and thus PNG). India has "production problems" with their vaccines.

Climate collapse;

[url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/03/overshoot-or-omnicide.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/03/overshoot-or-omnicide.html (DJ-depressing...)

WAR

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/03/us-aggressiveness-follow-up.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/03/us-aggressiveness-follow-up.html  DJ-If US "foreign policy" means insulting everyone even the EU may have to choose other partners...DJ-I am "fed up" with US insanity ! If I had a say in it "we"(=the EU) would break with the US and find our own way-making the EU (and €)  stronger. The US should not "order" "us" where to get our energy, vaccines... 

[url]https://southfront.org/nato-in-panic-mode-after-losing-track-of-russian-submarine-in-eastern-mediterranean/[/url] or https://southfront.org/nato-in-panic-mode-after-losing-track-of-russian-submarine-in-eastern-mediterranean/ 

[url]https://southfront.org/turkey-refuses-to-give-up-on-its-syrian-interests/[/url] or https://southfront.org/turkey-refuses-to-give-up-on-its-syrian-interests/ 

DJ-The Erdogan-clan in Turkey is making millions by stealing oil/gas from Syria and Iraq-stealing oil in Libya is less succesfull but Turkish aid to Azarbaijan (against Armenia) and Qatar also will be paid in energy. 

What role (and at what price) Turkey will play in NATO (North American Thieves of Oil, North Atlantic Terrorist Organization) plans for Ukraine is not yet clear. A NATO invasion (dressed as a joint exercise with Ukraine) in Crimea (starting a war with Russia-but who cares..) will need Turkish support. Ankara and Kiev did increase cooperation. But Turkey needs Russia and Iran as well...

Again I am NOT neutral-in many ways nato is the continuation of nazi-ism...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Unthinkable[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Unthinkable in another form. The West likes to ignore the role they played in hitler getting into power...It is obvious that given a choice between hitler and stalin the West would support hitler...Hitler worked for UK/French intel after W.W.1, his party did get funds from a.o. US companies, European "royals"...seeking revenge for the murder of the czar-family. Of course most of the "European royals" are family members. Our "queen" wilhelmina invited her uncle-the German "Kaiser" in november 1918 to come to NL...Most royals have fascist family links till today. "Our" "queen" maxima is the daughter of a member of the Argentina fascist government from the 80's responsible for the murder of tens of thousend "activists"...The "West" still considers m.thatcher, r.reagan as "decent leaders" even when they where "good friends"with pinochet mass murdere in Chile..

Today NATO is working with Arab-Sunni Gulf States (and their dictators/royals) against Russia-Iran-China (also not with a democratic tradition-but most of their population are better of now then they were 20 years ago...) funding IS and transporting them all over the globe (Africa, Asia, but IS is also joining nazi's in the ukraine). 

Is the "elite" willing to kill tens of millions for their greed ? Yes-DJ-I think they did not change...still see most of "us" as "dispensable subhumans". The mentality of English "nobility" rather having sheep then Irish when England ruined/ruled Ireland has not changed...The idea that was the basis for slavetrade, colonialism is still there...When you wonder why we are not stopping this pandemic, climate change you have to consider "the dark side"...financial inbalance with 0,1% claiming-more or less-to own this planet is anti-democratic and the basic risk for humanity...

Music; [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jq5cAJuUjAE[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jq5cAJuUjAE Kondja Mia a modern translation of centuries old Sephardic Jewish music...

DJ-If you did read it to here-thanks for your patience !



We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 21 2021 at 10:14pm

DJ, 

-Yesterday I opened a story here in "General Discussion" on how Covid19 seems to have jumped to other species. We did know pets could get infected-but they were not supposed to spread the "old" variant. Also minks did get infected-spread the old variant between minks and re-infected humans. In Denmark "cluster 5" variant had a limited spread in humans autumn 2020. 

Since the new variants have more in common with corona virusses in some other animals these newer variants can spread better in other-then human-hosts. This means that the old variant only had 8 billion human hosts, with newer variants the number of hosts should already include mice, cats and most likely some other animals. The number of hosts for the new Covid variants has exploded to-potential-hundreds of billions....

These findings are based on some sort of laboratory experiment on mice. Recent findings in (UK) pets. Since we have a problem in testing all humans-we hardly test other animals. It is "more than likely" this pandemic is already spreading outside humans. 

More infections=more mutations=more variants. Since mutations are "ad random" mistakes over 99% of them make the virus weaker not stronger. Since the number of potential hosts has become-in time- "unlimited" still the number of variants in all kind of species will explode. We-as humans-may NOT survive that....

If "we" are very, very lucky we "may push" Covid19 towards non-human hosts via vaccines. But it will remain a major risk. 

-FluTrackers;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/910436-where%E2%80%99s-the-science-behind-cdc%E2%80%99s-6-foot-social-distance-decree[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/910436-where%E2%80%99s-the-science-behind-cdc%E2%80%99s-6-foot-social-distance-decree ; DJ-The larger the distance the lower the viral load should be the logic behind social distancing. But many other factors are also important. Outside the viral load gets spread much more widely then indoors. Also new variants are much more infectious. So is "the rule" of 6 feet, or 1,5 or 2 meters (still) based on any science ? Or just a usefull precaution-in combination with masks, hand washing etc ? 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/910430-michigan-covid-19-is-increasing-why-it-may-be-a-warning[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/910430-michigan-covid-19-is-increasing-why-it-may-be-a-warning ;
With the arrival of spring and after an exhausting year of COVID-19 restrictions, Americans are eager to return to some sense of normalcy.
However, many health experts are urging patience, warning a possible fourth surge may be on the horizon, with over a dozen states exhibiting early signs of increasing case numbers.

The Great Lake State currently has the country's fourth-highest average of new COVID-19 cases per capita, with New Jersey leading the country. For the past three weeks, the daily case average has doubled. In the last week alone, the state’s average has increased by 53%.

DJ-Some on this forum seem to believe the US will be excluded from another wave of Covid-variants. Even if ALL people were vaccinated and the vaccine would offer 95% protection still 5% of the people would be at risk. As far as I know the US did get 1/3 of its population vaccinated and protection against infection after vaccination is limited. New variants still may bring severe disease EVEN in vaccinated people. So NO the US will NOT be excluded ! We all would LOVE to be able to get "back to some form of normal". But the best we may be able to get is a "new form of normal"!

Governments have to change strategies. They had to do so from the start ! The "old normal" did bring us this pandemic ! The "new normal" should stop further pandemics-if possible-or at least limit damage...see also [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/909260-us-daily-covid-19-cases-deaths-numbers-using-jhu-data-38-037-added-cases-564-added-deaths%C2%A0for-march-21-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/909260-us-daily-covid-19-cases-deaths-numbers-using-jhu-data-38-037-added-cases-564-added-deaths%C2%A0for-march-21-2021 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/canada/canada-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/902890-ontario-2021-covid-cases?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/canada/canada-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/902890-ontario-2021-covid-cases?view=stream ;Ontario reported 1,791 new COVID-19 cases on Sunday along with 18 additional deaths, as the active caseload across the province rose to its highest point since Feb. 8.
The province reported 1,829 new cases on Saturday and 1,745 on Friday, the two highest standalone counts reported since Ontario’s stay at home order ended gradually from February to early March.
The seven-day rolling average of cases now stands at 1,538, up from 1,401 one week ago.

DJ The US-Canada border is not stopping increase of cases. (latest activity !!!)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/880873-us-children-covid-19?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/880873-us-children-covid-19?view=stream ;

Summary of Findings (data available as of 3/11/21) :


Cumulative Number of Child COVID-19 Cases*

  • 3,284,531 total child COVID-19 cases reported, and children represented 13.2% (3,284,531/24,806,402) of all cases
  • Overall rate: 4,364 cases per 100,000 children in the population

Change in Child COVID-19 Cases*

  • 52,695 new child COVID-19 cases were reported the past week from 3/4/21-3/11/21 (3,231,836 to 3,284,531)
  • Over two weeks, 2/25/21-3/11/21, there was a 4% increase in the cumulated number of child COVID-19 cases (116,257 new cases (3,168,274 to 3,284,531))

DJ-New(er) variants seem to do more harm in younger age groups. (Vaccination not a main factor).

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/910399-biorxiv-the-b1-351-and-p-1-variants-extend-sars-cov-2-host-range-to-mice-preprint[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/910399-biorxiv-the-b1-351-and-p-1-variants-extend-sars-cov-2-host-range-to-mice-preprint ;DJ-Covid19 jumping to much more hosts is a game changer ! This is very major ! 

-Other news

Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Xj-jC4Dh8Y[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Xj-jC4Dh8Y (DJ-Lots of info under the video)

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/03/the-moa-week-in-review-ot-2021-023.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/03/the-moa-week-in-review-ot-2021-023.html DJ a.o. "war on/in vaccines" India is seeing an increase of cases so exporting less AZ/O vaccines. Russia and China willing to fill that gap. 

WAR still top-priority 

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/bulletin-tanks-have-now-crossed-the-border[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/bulletin-tanks-have-now-crossed-the-border DJ-Even with HT not "the best source of info" other sources giving the same indications. 

[url]https://www.debka.com/china-ignores-us-embargo-buys-40pc-of-iranian-oil-alaska-encounter-ends-on-jarring-note/[/url] or https://www.debka.com/china-ignores-us-embargo-buys-40pc-of-iranian-oil-alaska-encounter-ends-on-jarring-note/ DJ-The idea the US can tell the EU, Russia, China where to buy energy, vaccines, electronics, weapons is absurd ! The longer the US sticks to that insanity the more the US will find itself isolated. [url]https://southfront.org/u-s-in-shock-as-beijing-mirrors-washingtons-rhetoric-in-diplomatic-negotiation/[/url] or https://southfront.org/u-s-in-shock-as-beijing-mirrors-washingtons-rhetoric-in-diplomatic-negotiation/ 

Music [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=__VQX2Xn7tI[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=__VQX2Xn7tI The Carpenters; We've Only Just Begun-DJ-We are just of the start of this pandemic. It is far from over ! The reason why I write "scenario's" is that we have to start facing our problems if we want to solve them ! We have been running away now for decades-while we knew the problems were there...The first step in solving problems is in accepting they are problems !


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 22 2021 at 10:38pm

DJ,

-[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries maybe most interesting is the 7 day trendline in new cases. The problem is a strong upward trend while the numbers did not decrease that much...We hardly were out of the "winterpeak" and now face another "springpeak"...In many hospitals they are already dealing with high numbers from that winterpeak-on top of that yet another peak is a major problem. Also logistics, PPE, oxygen may become a problem. 

-FluTrackers;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/907813-treyfish-s-multiple-zoonotics-during-covid-19-pandemic-thread?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/907813-treyfish-s-multiple-zoonotics-during-covid-19-pandemic-thread?view=stream good background info...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/910541-texas-a-m-research-uncovers-first-known-covid-19-uk-variant-in-animals[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/910541-texas-a-m-research-uncovers-first-known-covid-19-uk-variant-in-animals ;The United Kingdom variant (B.1.1.7) of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, has been detected for the first time in a dog and a cat from the same household in Brazos County, Texas, as part of a study led by researchers at Texas A&M University.

The first reported finding of the B.1.1.7 human variant virus in any animal worldwide, this detection of the UK variant in animals in a natural household setting reinforces the importance of having procedures in place to monitor the SARS-CoV-2 viral genome as it crosses species barriers, giving specialists both insight and time to study potential new variants before they spread through animal or human populations.

DJ-For science I think Covid19 is still a "human problem"-experiments with laboratory mice indicates mice can spread the virus. As long as there is NO evidence science most likely will go on seeing it as Covid19 does not (yet) spread in animals-but they are ringing the alarm bells...very to find out soon it is spreading via non-human hosts...in different species. (See also [url]https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2021/03/articles/animals/other-animals/the-easter-bunny-and-covid-19-risks/[/url] or https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2021/03/articles/animals/other-animals/the-easter-bunny-and-covid-19-risks/ )

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/910530-cidrap-global-covid-19-continues-climb-amid-widening-vaccine-gaps[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/910530-cidrap-global-covid-19-continues-climb-amid-widening-vaccine-gaps ;"The inequitable distribution of vaccines is not just a moral outrage. It's also economically and epidemiologically self-defeating," he said, adding that racing to vaccinate entire populations yields a false sense of security.
"The more transmission, the more variants. And the more variants that emerge, the more likely it is that they will evade vaccines," he said. "And as long as the virus continues to circulate anywhere, people will continue to die, trade and travel will continue to be disrupted, and the economic recovery will be further delayed."

On Brazil and other countries;Global cases climb; Brazil's surge worsens

WHO officials today said global cases are up 8% compared with the previous week, with a slight increase seen in the number of deaths, which had been dropping for several weeks.
The WHO said it is extremely concerned about Brazil's surge, and Tedros said that from February to March the country's deaths doubled, from about 7,000 per week to 15,000 per week.
Maria Van Kerkhove, PhD, the WHO's technical lead for COVID-19, said over the past 7 days, 25 of Brazil's 27 states have intensive care unit (ICU) occupancy of more than 80%. She added that the country is now averaging more than 70,000 cases and more than 2,000 deaths each day.
WHO officials said Brazil, where the more transmissible P1 SARS-CoV-2 variant is spreading, has lots of experience with infectious diseases but needs a whole-nation approach to battling COVID-19.
Elsewhere in South America, Chile's cases are surging, and on Mar 20, it reported a record daily number of cases, according to Reuters. The rise is stretching ICUs across the country, and officials say despite the rapid vaccine rollout, the country's second wave is being driven by the end-of-summer holidays, more transmissible variants, and relaxed COVID-19 measures.
Van Kerkhove said cases in Europe have increased by 12%, especially in the eastern part of the continent, driven by a combination of factors, including the more transmissible B117 variant, pressure to open societies up, and uneven vaccine distribution.
For example, Hungary is appealing to volunteers to help treat patients in hospitals in the northwest that are overwhelmed, and Greek officials are asking private doctors to help out in public hospitals, which are feeling pressure, especially in the Athens area.
In other hot spots, the Philippines today reported a single-day high of 8,019 cases, as officials tightened restrictions in the Manila area, where ICU capacity is reaching critical levels. Elsewhere, India is reporting its greatest daily cases in 4 months, and warned that a big Hindu pilgrimage festival held once every 12 years drawing 150 million to river-bank sites poses a risk of further spread.

DJ-Inequality is a motor behind pandemics. Global coordination would enable us to do much more with the same means...Lots of countries are now getting close to a healthcrisis the UK had a few months ago. Latin America is facing the spread of P1, SE Asia P3 variants.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/910511-us-florida-massive-spring-break-crowds-at-theme-parks-beaches-covid-19-super-spreader-events[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/910511-us-florida-massive-spring-break-crowds-at-theme-parks-beaches-covid-19-super-spreader-events DJ-Here in NL the idea is "we did vaccinate (some of) the most vulnarables so now we can reopen to save the economy". With a R0 of 1,13 and several (most UK) variants spreading such idea's-if becoming practice-would undo what vaccinations may give-group protection. 

DJ-Again (in my opinion) the pandemic situation is getting WORSE !!! Only limiting room for virusspread can get us out of this pandemic. If indeed Covid19 jumped to mice it will get in other animals-and "get out of control" mixing with all kind of corona virusses in (other) animals. Somehow the seriousness of the situation/crisis is missed by both "experts" and politics...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-h5n1-h5n8-h5n6-h5n3-h5n2-h10n8-outbreak-tracking/910505-chp-closely-monitors-human-case-of-avian-influenza-a-h5n6-in-guangxi[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-h5n1-h5n8-h5n6-h5n3-h5n2-h10n8-outbreak-tracking/910505-chp-closely-monitors-human-case-of-avian-influenza-a-h5n6-in-guangxi DJ-In the US/Ohio people with recent travel history to Ebola regions in Africa getting extra monitoring...enough other diseases out there waiting for a weak spot to show themselves.

-Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8AesHLNadxk[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8AesHLNadxk interview with Tim Spector

WAR

[url]https://southfront.org/ukraine-turkey-cooperation-and-offensive-preparations/[/url] or https://southfront.org/ukraine-turkey-cooperation-and-offensive-preparations/ 

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/03/syria-the-war-is-resuming-on-several-fronts.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/03/syria-the-war-is-resuming-on-several-fronts.html 

DJ We keep destroying ourselves...music ; Rolling Stones - It's All Over Now [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UVpFf2DmFSM[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UVpFf2DmFSM 1964

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 23 2021 at 2:49pm

DJ-Some thoughts...

-In an exponential model-doubling per step- the last steps go from 6,25 to 12,5 then 25, 50 and 100%. Variants may go exponential. 

-We will find more variants due both to more variants and more sequencing. 

-The next step in this pandemic is science finding spread in wild animals-most likely mice, rats, cat-likes

-In the genocide by pandemic idea-just like a N (neutron) bomb- people die, buildings survive...

-Due to increase of vaccination-production and Covid-medication-less other medications may become available....

The only way out is stop spreading variants..." Freeze" ... 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 23 2021 at 10:13pm

DJ,

The house is on fire and "our leaders" are "welcoming the warmth" after a cold winter...The only way out of a problem is realizing you are in a problem ! The way out of a horror scenario starts with recognizing it as a horrorscenario...

We have verry bussy leaders-since they have decided to "stop smoking next year" there is room for more packs of cigarets today...stopping next year is NOT stopping. Solving a problem next year is NOT solving a problem...

Big Pharma claims "vaccines can get us out of the crisis" and so "our leaders" spent zillions of €, $ etc on Big Pharma...even when this is not stopping the spread the virus further. If indeed the virus did find new ways to enlarge "the family of hosts" from 8 billion people to zillions of hosts vaccinations become useless...If spreading the virus is the problem you have to stop spreading the virus !

If there are now "zillions of hosts" in a "big corona hosting family" NOTHING is stopping exponential growth first in infections-then with enough numbers-in variants...Stopping the spread of a virus is stopping the pandemic...

-The numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries ; Brazil almost 85,000 new cases and over 3000 deaths. Turkey, Ukraine with alarming high new cases...enough to start a war ! In the US New York, Texas show again high numbers. The UK variant must be spreading in/from Florida...if people in the US had any illusions of NOT getting into a third wave...STOP spreading the virus !!!!!

-FluTrackers;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/909260-us-daily-covid-19-cases-deaths-numbers-using-jhu-data-69-257-added-cases-1-091-added-deaths%C2%A0for-march-23-2021?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/909260-us-daily-covid-19-cases-deaths-numbers-using-jhu-data-69-257-added-cases-1-091-added-deaths%C2%A0for-march-23-2021?view=stream ;On March 7th the Atlantic made their last post. They showed a 7 day moving average of 43,845 cases and 1,722 deaths link It appears daily cases are up about 25% in the last 3 weeks. Very rough math...Daily deaths are down about 70%. Again...rough math...

DJ Getting a realistic picture is getting more difficult. Variants behave different then the "old" virus..

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america-aa/south-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/910648-msf-steps-up-covid-19-response-in-northern-brazil-as-covid-19-epidemic-is-%E2%80%98out-of-control%E2%80%99-march-22-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america-aa/south-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/910648-msf-steps-up-covid-19-response-in-northern-brazil-as-covid-19-epidemic-is-%E2%80%98out-of-control%E2%80%99-march-22-2021 ;As the number of cases and deaths from COVID-19 in Brazil is increasing, Doctors Without Borders/Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) is mobilizing additional emergency teams to help fight the disease. “The challenge Brazil faces today is simply unprecedented,” says Ana de Lemos, executive director for MSF Brazil. “We are facing an epidemic that is out of control, with health systems in most Brazilian states on the verge of collapse or already lying in ruin.”

DJ-We should learn from history on what pandemics can do...again we have to STOP spreading the virus !!!! And we are not doing that ! The main stupid reason why we are not doing that cheap old method is Big Pharma making zillions with vaccines that do NOT stop spreading the virus...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/910639-germany-enters-lockdown-again-and-france-warns-of-an-explosion-in-hospital-admissions[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/910639-germany-enters-lockdown-again-and-france-warns-of-an-explosion-in-hospital-admissions DJ-STOP spreading the virus !!!!!

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america-aa/south-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/910285-chile-at-the-limit-of-its-hospital-capacity-after-rebound-in-cases[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america-aa/south-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/910285-chile-at-the-limit-of-its-hospital-capacity-after-rebound-in-cases ;The surge of infections and deaths has left hospitals across the country on the verge of collapse, with less than 200 intensive care units (ICUs) now available nationwide. Why It Matters: There is currently no definitive cause for why Chile, which has been a global frontrunner in vaccine distribution, is experiencing such a spike. But there are fears it may signal that immunity to the original COVID19 strain (whether from a vaccine or past infection) may not be as effective in protecting against the new variant from neighboring Brazil. Increased spread of the so-called P1 variant could also indicate that other countries in the region with slower vaccination campaigns may soon experience a similar surge — prolonging both the health and economic impacts of the pandemic in South America. Background: While little is known about Brazil’s P1 variant, some studies have indicated that it is twice as infectious as the original COVID19 strain and has the potential to evade immunity elicited by previous infection.

DJ-STOP spreading the virus !!!!!

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/910541-texas-a-m-research-uncovers-first-known-covid-19-uk-variant-in-animals?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/910541-texas-a-m-research-uncovers-first-known-covid-19-uk-variant-in-animals?view=stream ;this detection of the UK variant in animals in a natural household setting reinforces the importance of having procedures in place to monitor the SARS-CoV-2 viral genome as it crosses species barriers,

DJ-STOP spreading the virus !!!!! 

If I had a hat I would eat it...that is how angry I am ....Can we make it even worse ? YES we can !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa/ebola-forums/910546-44-ohioans-being-monitored-for-potential-ebola-exposure?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa/ebola-forums/910546-44-ohioans-being-monitored-for-potential-ebola-exposure?view=stream ;For example, DeWine pointed to the part of the bill that says the state health department can't force someone to quarantine unless they've been "medically diagnosed" with an illness or have come into contact with someone who has.

The utter stupidity of this "leader" is shocking...Do we want the blind to lead us near a cliff ? How can it be we have such insane "leaders"? 

DJ-I rather NOT believe in "genocide by pandemic" but if we simply are NOT stopping virus spread how are we stopping the pandemic ? 

Of course there is climate "change"/collapse [url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/03/overshoot-or-omnicide.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/03/overshoot-or-omnicide.html ...DJ-Why not use the 2000 global temperature and promis we will not increase 1,5C above that ? Or the 2020 temperatures....? Insanity rules !

WAR

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/03/afghanistan-more-dead-end-proposals-seek-time-to-allow-us-face-saving-exit.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/03/afghanistan-more-dead-end-proposals-seek-time-to-allow-us-face-saving-exit.html DJ NATO is in Afghanistan to stop Russia from getting a link to the Indian Ocean, China a link to the EU/Africa...

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/u-s-general-says-west-should-use-all-tools-to-assist-ukraine[url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/u-s-general-says-west-should-use-all-tools-to-assist-ukraine and [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/russian-tank-divisions-on-the-move-city-streets-toward-poland-lithuania-borders[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/russian-tank-divisions-on-the-move-city-streets-toward-poland-lithuania-borders 

[url]https://southfront.org/rockets-pound-us-military-base-near-conico-oil-field-in-syria/[/url] or https://southfront.org/rockets-pound-us-military-base-near-conico-oil-field-in-syria/ 

DJ-If you want to "increase excess deaths" war has proven to be very effective...

Music-[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sWLdZFCMx8Y[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sWLdZFCMx8Y ; Fun Boy Three - The Lunatics Have Taken Over The Asylum ;

See a clinic full of cynics Who want to twist the peoples' wrist 

They're watching every move we make 

We're all included on the list 

The lunatics have taken over the asylum 

The lunatics have taken over the asylum

 No nuclear the cowboy told us

 And who am I to disagree

 'Cause when the madman flips the switch 

The nuclear will go for me 

The lunatics have taken over the asylum 

The lunatics have taken over the asylum

 I've seen the faces of starvation 

But I just can not see the points '

Cause there's so much food here today 

That no one wants to take away 

The lunatics have taken over the asylum 


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 24 2021 at 10:37pm

DJ

-[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries With over 583,000 new global cases we are clearly into a third wave. A look at the top 5 for new cases can link this wave to variants. #1 Brazil with over 90,000 cases 2244 deaths-P1 variant (and no doubt limited other/new variants), #2 US-UK variant but what role do US variants play ? How widespread are other/new variants over 66,000 new cases, 1405 deaths is not good. #3 India with over 53,000 new cases-in part linked to the UK variant but India/Maharashtra has its own virus-India is the world largest vaccine producer...they may need most of those vaccines now in India.... #4 France and #5 Poland both around 30,000 new cases-most linked to the UK variant-but no doubt other variants wide spread. 

The top 5 countries make around 275,000 cases-almost half of all the new (tested/reported) cases. 

-FluTrackers (latest activity)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/904748-india-astrazeneca-vaccine-adverse-reports[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/904748-india-astrazeneca-vaccine-adverse-reports DJ-In a perfect world every one would stay in perfect health for over a year after getting a vaccine...in this inperfect world people can "drop dead" from hearth failure when they walk out the vaccination room...India had a very ambitious goal-vaccinating 300 million in 3 months. Since they had experience it was a possible job. But variants do evade more the vaccine-and 300 million on a population of 1,3 billion is "far from herd immunity"...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/910785-cidrap-global-covid-19-cases-rise-for-4th-straight-week[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/910785-cidrap-global-covid-19-cases-rise-for-4th-straight-week lots of info-but Africa and other countries we keep poor do not test/report cases...The maybe even worst part of the story is cases going up in countries WITH NPI/lockdowns, even Chile-with already a lot of people vaccinated seeing P1 variant cases going up...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/910784-cidrap-michigan-minnesota-see-covid-19-variant-increases[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/910784-cidrap-michigan-minnesota-see-covid-19-variant-increases  ; Across the United States, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has tracked 7,501 B117 cases in 51 jurisdictions; that number is likely a gross underestimate, as it's based only on a samples selected for genomic surveillance. There is not any reason to believe the US would be excluded...vaccines only can offer limited protection that can be undone by people ignoring social distance etc...variants will do the rest.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/vaccines-aa/910774-nejm-sars-cov-2-infection-after-vaccination-in-health-care-workers-in-california[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/vaccines-aa/910774-nejm-sars-cov-2-infection-after-vaccination-in-health-care-workers-in-california DJ-Even with vaccine offering over 90% protection it is not 100% protection against getting infection (or spreading the virus). Even with millions of vaccinations per day - it is very likely already more people getting vaccinated then infected worldwide - the big problem is in the numbers...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/india/india-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/910754-india-moh-statement-on-new-covid-variant-detected-in-15-20-of-samples-from-maharashtra[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/india/india-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/910754-india-moh-statement-on-new-covid-variant-detected-in-15-20-of-samples-from-maharashtra“Though VOCs and a new double mutant variant have been found in India, these have not been detected in numbers sufficient to either establish a direct relationship or explain the rapid increase in cases in some states. .....

DJ-See latest news-again since India is the world largest vaccine producer more of those vaccines will stay in India-less will be exported. So vaccination campains will see further delays. [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/india/india-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/910756-india-media-india-delays-big-exports-of-astrazeneca-shot-as-infections-surge-sources-say-march-24-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/india/india-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/910756-india-media-india-delays-big-exports-of-astrazeneca-shot-as-infections-surge-sources-say-march-24-2021 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/europe-h5n8-tracking/h5n8-tracking-netherlands/910757-netherlands-1-new-outbreak-of-highly-pathogenic-influenza-h5n4-in-eurasian-curlew-found-dead-in-a-wetland-area-harlingen-oie-march-19-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/europe-h5n8-tracking/h5n8-tracking-netherlands/910757-netherlands-1-new-outbreak-of-highly-pathogenic-influenza-h5n4-in-eurasian-curlew-found-dead-in-a-wetland-area-harlingen-oie-march-19-2021 DJ I did see cases of H5N1, H5N6 and H5N8-now a H5N4 ? Of course other diseases (Ebola, MERS) did not stop-coinfections may create even more (insane) variants (in maybe non-human hosts...)

WAR 

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/bulletin-ukraine-president-signs-order-to-re-capture-crimea-from-russia-kerch-bridge-now-a-target[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/bulletin-ukraine-president-signs-order-to-re-capture-crimea-from-russia-kerch-bridge-now-a-target 

[url]https://southfront.org/ukraine-prepares-for-attack-on-crimea/[/url] or https://southfront.org/ukraine-prepares-for-attack-on-crimea/ 

DJ-Was Turkey "testing strategies" in the Armenia-Azarbaijan war to use them in Ukraine ? May NATO face TWO problems in the Ukraine-not only keeping Russia out but also keeping Turkey out ? 

[url]https://www.debka.com/mivzak/giant-container-ship-blocks-suez-canal/[/url] or https://www.debka.com/mivzak/giant-container-ship-blocks-suez-canal/  DJ A Dutch company has been asked for help. To get the ship out it has to get rid of all of its cargo, oil, water etc...and even then dredging may be needed...it could take weeks. 

You can not start a major war with the Suez canal being blocked...Netanyahu in Israel, Erdogan in Turkey, Putin in Russia mix talks with bombs but will try to avoid a major war. Erdogan/Putin talks on Ukraine may have an outcome Kiev (or NATO) will not like...

DJ-Is it good there is massive vaccinations ? YES !!!! If you can get vaccinated !!!! Does it offer 100% protection-No but they do not make that claim-but I would love to at least even have some improved protection after vaccination...

There is a global "third wave" on top of the relative recent second wave. This means hospitals/ICU may be out of capacity within a few weeks. Variants are the motor behind this third wave-in combination with less strict NPI/ "reopenings"...but those "reopenings" will stop when hospitals are out of capacity. 

Another problem may be lack of supplies, from oxygen to PPE to sedation drugs for patients on ICU. A "dark scenario" could be storage spaces as "hospitals" where people are brought to die-due to lack of HCW (and maybe even lack of beds...)

As long as we do not stop spreading virus/variants we are creating newer variants...When non-human and human Covid cases start mixing it may be "the end of the story..."

Again at a certain level of Covid infections in humans we did see variants show up-with cluster 5 in Denmark due to a mink/human mix. With further increase of cases enough "mistakes in reproduction=mutations" did show up to increase the number of variants. Limited sequencing further worsens the outlook. Some variants may have even started in a much earlier stage-but were not detected. 

Hosts getting several infections cause variants. Also [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immunosuppression[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immunosuppression may see a lot of mutations of the virus in one person. Newer variants can be "further away"from the virus that started this pandemic-and the vaccines/natural immunity increasing risk of new infections. Virusses are "flexible" and find ways to evade immunity to "survive"-virusses need to reproduce in a host...

Even the-in my opinion-over optimistic Dr. John Campbell claims dealing with this pandemic will take "more seasons"(=years) and after vaccination still stick to NPI/social distancing; you are protected against disease but still may catch/spread the virus !

In my DJ opinion two things are needed;

1-Stop spreading the virus-social distancing, travel bans etc...for as long as is needed. Biggest problem is the economic costs..but NOT stopping the virus is a far bigger price to pay...

2-LONG TERM PLANS !!!! Stop acting like this pandemic will be over tomorrow or next week !!!! Even if you increase vaccination it will not be over this year !!! Get real-there is no other choice !

Music [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qyclqo_AV2M[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qyclqo_AV2M We Can Work It Out !!!! Beatles 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Tabitha111 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tabitha111 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 25 2021 at 10:17am

Unfortunatly, people are pretty over it. I also noticed here that now we have recieved our 2nd Moderna vaccine in our retirement community- even though it has not been a week yet- folks here are pretty much abandoning their masks (not like they were very compliant before) but now there are more of them.

I am sure that it is the same out in the community at large.

'A man who does not think and plan long ahead will find trouble right at his door.'
--Confucius

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