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Now tracking the new emerging South Africa Omicron Variant


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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 31 2022 at 10:24pm

roni3470, here in NL we also had the flu showing up recently...if people catch both flu and CoViD they are more likely to end up in hospital (or die)...

[url][/url] or Tim Spector/ZOE;

1 in 15 people has COVID in new record highs

In the data this week, Tim shares how COVID symptoms have changed over time and some advice and reassurance on how to prepare for the lack for free testing in the UK. He also shares interesting research on gut disease and how eating a lot of plants has an impact on gut and digestive problems.

A look at [url][/url] or 4,5 million people in the UK now have CoViD symptoms (runny nose, pain in the throat, fatigue, headache...also fever, and (limited) loss of smell). Government in the UK comes up with under 2 million active cases...

DJ-both numbers are very high....

Here in NL (also) [url][/url] or ..Latest statistics from NL [url][/url] or (in Dutch=machine translation may do a good job) .

In 2021 11% of all NL deaths were from corona (or testing positive for it ???), That were 19,379 deaths, 61% of them 80 y/o+, combined with the 2020 CBS (Central Bureau of Statistics) they see 39,552 NL corona deaths...The RIVM/NL-CDC reported 21,049 CoViD deaths.

The CBS numbers come from death certificates, NL doctors/GP's do not have to report CoViD deaths to the RIVM/NL-CDC...So the NL-CBS numbers should have more value...

However in the media-since 61% is 80+, they are presented as dying from old age...may not even get tested; "pneumonia" maybe reason of death...

DJ-Since the [url][/url] or depend on reporting from countries; NL deaths 21,987=NL/CDC number a low estimate for global CoViD deaths would be twice the official 6 million...

A look at Dr. John Campbell-getting maybe more realistic [url][/url] or (lots of info under his video).

South Korea reporting 320,675 new cases,-12% and 375 deaths -4%...most likely BA.2.2

Germany, France at #2 and #3...Vietnam at #4...UK and US at #8 and #9...but I do not trust their statistics...India at #50 with reporting 1,335 new cases and 52 deaths..

A look at China; cases would go down...-36%, less then 10,000 cases in the last 7 days...that is why 50 million Chinese are now in a lockdown...Further disrupting global trade...I find it very hard to believe that number...[url][/url] or ;

The Chinese mainland recorded 1,827 new confirmed COVID-19 cases on Thursday with 1,787 linked to local transmissions and 40 from overseas, according to data from the National Health Commission on Friday.

A total of 5,559 new asymptomatic cases were also recorded on Thursday, and 59,056 asymptomatic patients remain under medical observation.

Confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland now total 151,103, with the death toll at 4,638.

The latest tally of confirmed cases in the Hong Kong and Macao special administrative regions and Taiwan region is as follows:

Hong Kong: 286,313 (47,181 recoveries, 7,825 deaths)

Macao: 82 (81 recoveries)

Taiwan: 23,394 (13,742 recoveries, 853 deaths)

Worldometers has 1,839 new Chinese cases...DJ-China may claim massive testing, massive isolating cases may result in such low numbers...Indeed those "low" numbers are (close to) the highest China did see all of this pandemic...

Robot roaming the streets making health announcements in #Shanghai during lockdown.

A dog-like robot...DJ-making my mind up-I decide for now I am willing to believe China very strict try for Zero CoViD strategy may be better then "let the virus run free" most of the west is doing...

COVID is a preventable disease. #ResistMassInfection

So-YES let us all try to prevent it as best we ?

-INFORM !!!! Governments/mass media fail to bring relevant news often; so inform yourself to inform others !

Maybe the basic message is that CoViD/the pandemic is NOT over...maybe now-for this time-it may be-in some area's be less deathly then the flu...but it is also different from the flu...soon may be a mass killer...But if we stop it we will not know if we prevented a tragedy...

-MASK !!!!! If you were a mask in a public space it makes it easier for others to do so...If I go to a supermarket I go there early-quiet-morning...still using a mask !

-VACCINATE !!!! Yes there are risks, it is far from perfect, but it may help to limit spread, infection, long part of a strategy it may be better then do nothing...

-Take it SERIOUS, a pandemic from whatever virus is NEVER !!! a joke...It means the virus was able to do harm in several global regions...By now CoViD may have killed between 20 and 50 million people worldwide...most of them most likely never even did get tested ! CoViD must be widespread in non-human hosts, animals...and that will bring further problems !

-A last point...[url][/url] or still NOT mentioning the many subvariants of BA.2...BA,2 itself should not be named "Omicron"-it is a new Variant Of Concern (VOC) but [url][/url] or is coming up with all kinds of sub-variants of BA.2,  [url][/url] or ;

Proposal for new sub-lineage of BA.2.3 with C23591G (S: Q677E) in Japan #495

Somehow NOT ending up in a global databank...all is "BA.2"...while people get infected from one form of BA.2 with another in a short time...

GGGGGGGGGGGGGGRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR I am getting very angry !!! Time for coffee-end of part 1 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 31 2022 at 11:33pm

I calmed down a bit...looking at the "winter-wonder-land..snow...April 1-we had some summer days allready....

Coffee-part 2;

[url][/url] or but also ZOE/Tim Spector mentioning good food can help prevent often major problems...may help limit damage...(but you also need to be lucky)...

“We evaluated the antiviral activity of sulforaphane (SFN), the principal biologically active phytochemical derived from glucoraphanin, the naturally occurring precursor present in high concentrations in cruciferous vegetables. SFN inhibited in vitro replication of six strains of SARS-CoV-2, including Delta and Omicron, as well as that of the seasonal coronavirus HCoV-OC43.”

Research: Sulforaphane exhibits antiviral activity against pandemic SARS-CoV-2 and seasonal HCoV-OC43 coronaviruses in vitro and in mice


Cruciferous vegetables are part of the Brassica genus of plants. They include the following vegetables, among others:

  • Arugula 
  • Bok choy  
  • Broccoli 
  • Brussels sprouts
  • Cabbage 
  • Cauliflower 
  • Collard greens
  • Horseradish
  • Kale  
  • Radishes
  • Rutabaga
  • Turnips
  • Watercress
  • Wasabi

National Cancer Institute article

DJ, One can end up in discussions on "did people do enough not to get sick"....I hate that kind of discussion; it can easily become "blame the victim" ...Again getting good info out is one part...Here in NL there is also a discussion on Added Value Tax (BTW) on sorts of food; from extra tax on sugar, meat to dropping tax on fruits, vegetables...But it is a very complicated can make all kind of unhealthy snacks (meat replacements)  ending up not being taxed...cheaper "Frech Fries" made of potato-so no meat or sugar-is not helping...

For that matter better education may offer more perspective...Increasing tax on smoking did not end smoking...Limiting shops offering sigarettes may even work better then increasing the price...

With all of this pandemic-what role do governments have to play...I think they should be very active...most of the voters obesity is increasing and obese people get blamed making matters worse...

-[url][/url] or

A recombinant SARS-CoV-2 variant originally sequenced in the Netherlandshas been designated XM. It’s a combination of the Omicron BA1.1 and BA.2 subvariants.

From Gisaid:

Recombinant between: BA.1.1 & BA.2
Earliest sequence: 2022/2/21 (NL-NH)
Most recent sequence: 2022/3/04 (NL-NH)
Countries circulating: Netherlands (NH)
Likely breakpoint: between 17410 and 19995 (NSP13 or NSP14 or NSP15, ORF1b).
Cov-spectrum query: C15240T, C2470T, A18163G, C19955T, A20055G

hCoV-19/Netherlands/NH_AUMC-004734/2022 EPI_ISL_10925473 2022-03-04
hCoV-19/Netherlands/NH_AUMC-004178/2022 EPI_ISL_10925492 2022-02-21

DJ, "M" is the 13th letter in the by now 13 BA.1/BA.2 recombinations did get names...At least 7 BA.2 sub-variants (with also suggestion of sub-sub variants like Japan BA.2.3.1 ?) is getting complex...Statistics could give info on risks of new recombinations or subvariants...The Hong Kong BA.2.2 is high risk...

[url][/url] or

According to the report, about 15 per cent of hospitalised youngsters who had contracted the sub-variant developed neurological complications and more than 6 per cent had respiratory complications, with 21 children being sent to paediatric intensive care.

“We have seen seizures that lasted up to 30 minutes, swollen vocal cords, changes in consciousness and acute brain inflammation. All these are unique to this Omicron sub-variant,” he said. “It is particularly worrying because seizures lasting that long might lead to brain hypoxia.”

Kwan said that researchers were particularly worried about children contracting the sub-variant, with the strain capable of causing “severe damage to their central nervous system and respiratory system”.

SCMP report

Interpretation: The intrinsic severity of Omicron BA.2 is not mild as evident by the fatality and severe complications of the uninfected and unvaccinated children.

Lancet preprint: Intrinsic Severity of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2 in Uninfected, Unvaccinated Children: A Population-Based, Case-Control Study on Hospital Complications

But you need good testing and sequencing....and even then put it into perspective...Are they talking about 4 people dying ? The sub-group is a-hospital BA.2.2 case and b-under it still may show a higher risk but still for a limited group ending bad ? 

[url][/url] or ; DJ Pregnant women are also a "limited subgroup" at higher risk...

Another point is "viral shedding" -so being able to spread disease, infect others -in my opinion- deserves testing. If you test negative twice via a lateral flow/at home test...within 10-14 days after testing positive (say test 1 on day 7, test 2 on day 10-both being negative) you may have "a basis" to "believe" risks of infecting others could be "limited"...

DJ-As far as I did follow the info...most of the people should not spread the virus 2 to 3 weeks after testing positive...However-frustratingly-some may be spreading the virus longer...

And this is only talking about upper respitory viral spread...The virus may still be in the body...can show up later on via such a LF/at home test...

[url][/url] or ;

685,858 possible cases of reinfection identified between March 2, 2021 and March 20, 2022, of which 95.2% since December 6, 2021 (start of distribution of the Omicron variant in France). 50% of possible cases of reinfection were between 18 and 40 years old.

88% of possible cases of reinfection for which a screening result was available and interpretable for the reinfection episode had a result suggestive of Omicron.





Proportion of cases that are infections:

DJ-So I question if all those cases are re-infection or the virus was allready in the body-reached upper respitory spots-showing up again in LF/PCR testing...

So newer variants;

-itself may be able better to evade immunity...reinfecting but also evading vaccine immunity

-They may also be better to hide in the body-showing up later on-even after several negative tests...

One may only come to such a conclusion if a person did live in total isolation...

DJ-I think it is high time for better testing methods;

-Can the LF-test stick-now only used for nasal swabs in most countries-give good info used for oral/throat swabs as well (some countries use it for oral swabs...the US-CDC still against it...the test was not made for oral swabs...) 

DJ-If using the LF-at home test-has a high chance giving false negatives when it is used in oral swabs (or even worse-you may spread the virus from your nose to your throat !) there may be good reasons to be very carefull using those LF-at home tests this way !!! (DJ-The US-CDC may have a point here ! in the UK those at home tests were for free till april 1, so you could use two seperate sticks...Here in NL these tests are not for free (we did get a few for free by the government...but not enough to use two test-sticks for most people)...

DJ-I (still) wonder if using the LF-at home test-stick in "stool" would detect viral parts ? Maybe in people testing positive by PCR using LF-test for their "stool" could be an easy way for DIY testing to find out if there are still virusses in your body ? (But such tests used that way need studies...would they also detect dead viral parts ? What does a "positive test" mean here ?)

Of course there is also blood testing...maybe we have to increase that...

Air/sewage samples can also inform on viral parts in the air (public building...maybe also at home ?) or in sewage...

DJ-The basics-in my opinion-is that "if we have to live with the virus" we then at least should try to control that virus...Otherwise we end up like "living with climate collapse, fiat-currencies" ...we did build mega-cities on melting ice...

End of part 2

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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roni3470 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roni3470 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 01 2022 at 9:38am

Thanks Dutch!  I appreciate all your hard work and posts!  You are a rockstar!

NOW is the Season to Know

that Everything you Do

is Sacred
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 01 2022 at 12:15pm

roni3470, thank you....

I try to share my thoughts (and the links I get the info from) on this forum...Hope to "limit non-sense"...

[url][/url] or’s over.

Any control over Covid we had is over.

Duty doctor today. I’ve lost count of the number of patients I’ve seen with classic Covid symptoms

NOT A SINGLE PERSON has isolated or done a PCR test. Everyone’s mixing & infecting each other. There is no control. It’s over.

DJ from [url][/url] or 

[url][/url] or ;

In the WHO’s base case planning scenario, which serves as the WHO’s working model, the virus continues to evolve, but causes less severe outbreaks due to sustained and sufficient immunity against severe disease and death. There will likely be periodic spikes in transmission as immunity wanes. Booster shots might be needed periodically for those most at risk. The virus would likely fall into a seasonal pattern, with peaks in colder months—similar to influenza.

The WHO’s best case scenario envisions future variants as being “significantly less severe,” while protection from severe disease would be maintained without the need for periodic boosting or significant changes to current vaccines.

The worst case scenario sees the emergence of a more virulent and highly transmissible variant against which vaccines are less effective, and/or immunity against severe disease and death wanes rapidly, particularly in the most vulnerable groups. This would require significant changes to current vaccines and full redeployment and/or broader boosting for those most at risk.

To help end the emergency phase of the pandemic, WHO called on countries to continue or increase their virus surveillance capabilities to allow for early warning signs of significant changes in the virus. It also called for improved detection of long COVID, to track and reduce long-term disability after the pandemic has ended.

Countries also must continue to do diagnostic testing for the novel coronavirus, which helps identify leading strains causing infections and guide community-level decision making. Countries also must track virus evolution within animal populations, according to the WHO.

“We have global systems to better understand the virus as it changes, and we have the vaccines, diagnostic tools, treatments, and other public health and social measures to end the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic,” the director-general said.

“Focus, vigilance, and commitment now will end the emergency of the pandemic and lay the foundations for a more effective response to the future threats that will undoubtedly emerge. But the pandemic remains far from over,” he added.

DJ Looking at how this pandemic did develop so far the only realistic scenario-in my opinion-is the "worst case" one...we are allready in it with BA.2 subvariants showing up all over the globe and most governments simply in denial...

The WHO (like IPCC in climate "change"...) is a political organization in need of funding from member states...NOT in a position to state member states are doing a bad job...

[url][/url] or

 28 pages of finger-crossing, hand-wringing, wishful thinking dross. An epic black hole riddled with buzz phrases, key words, bullet points, legal clauses, minute fonts and pointless diagrams. Ugh.

“Strategic Preparedness, Readiness and Response Plan to end the global Covid-19 emergency in 2022”.  And that’s just the title.


Incredibly, this single sentence is all the report has to say about Long Covid:

“Improved detection of the Post-COVID-19 Condition (Long COVID) will be necessary to reduce long-term morbidity
even after the pandemic has ended.”

DJ, The Zero Hedge article may be better then the report itself.....

Supposedly the 1st registered intranasal Covid19 vaccine. Haven't seen the data, so not sure how trustworthy this is, but would wish their development could be sped up. If these could be self-administered & would block transmission better they could be a game changer.

DJ, only one is Russian...

Sputnik V

BREAKING: Russian Health Ministry registers the nasal version of Sputnik V, the world's first nasal vaccine against COVID-19

So "we" may have to wait still for a western alternative...[url][/url] or ;

Russian Health Ministry registers world’s first nasal spray coronavirus vaccine

The vaccine consists of two components based on the type 16 and type 5 adenovirus vectors

MOSCOW, April 1. /TASS/. The world’s first nasal spray coronavirus vaccine has been registered in Russia, the Health Ministry said in a statement on Friday.

"The Russian Health Ministry has registered the nasal spray form of the Gam-COVID-Vac (Sputnik V) coronavirus vaccine developed by the Health Ministry’s Gamaleya Research Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology," the statement reads.

According to the ministry, the vaccine consists of two components based on the type 16 and type 5 adenovirus vectors. The two doses will be administered with an interval of three weeks.

This kind of vaccination creates mucosal immunity against the coronavirus within the respiratory tract. "The use of a nasal spray induces a humoral immune response (boosting IgA antibody titers in the blood and nasal secretions and virus-neutralizing IgG antibody titers in the blood) and a cellular immune response to the infection caused by SARS-CoV-2," the statement added.

At this point, the vaccine is intended for the immunization of individuals over the age of 18.

Russian Health Minister Mikhail Murashko said earlier that the use of the nasal spray coronavirus vaccine would be included in recommendations for booster shots.

DJ, I do not know why it is taking so long to develop nasal vaccine-sprays...expected to give better immunity protection. Lots of countries did work on nasal vaccine sprays...

Living with the virus may only be able with massive and repeated mass vaccinations...[url][/url] or ;

The Gamaleya National Center of Epidemiology and Microbiology is the world’s leading research institution. The center was founded in 1891 as a private laboratory. Since 1949 it bears the name of Nikolai Gamaleya, a pioneer in Russian microbiology studies.

Gamaleya studied at the laboratory of French biologist Louis Pasteur in Paris and opened the world’s second vaccination station for rabies in Russia in 1886. In the 20th century, Gamaleya as one of the heads of the center fought epidemics of cholera, diphtheria and typhus and organized mass vaccination campaigns in the Soviet Union.

The center runs one of the unique “virus libraries” in the world and has its own vaccine production facility. Since the 1980s, the specialists of the Gamaleya Center led the effort to develop a technological platform using adenoviruses, initially extracted from human adenoids.

The Gamaleya Center successfully developed and registered in 2015 two vector-based vaccines against Ebola fever using the adenovirus vector platform. Another Ebola fever vaccine was registered in 2020. The vaccines have been officially approved for use by the Russian Health Ministry. About 2,000 people in Guinea received injections of Ebola vaccine in 2017-18 as part of Phase 3 clinical trial. Gamaleya Research Center received an international patent for Ebola vaccine.

Gamaleya Research Center used adenoviral vectors to develop vaccines against influenza and against Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS). Both vaccines are currently in advanced stages of clinical trials.

Since 1997 Alexander Gintsburg, a member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, heads the Gamaleya Center.

May bring more info on results....[url][/url] or ;

The RDIF finances the production of Sputnik V in Russia using the manufacturing capacity of its portfolio companies, R-Pharm and Binnopharm (part of the Alium Group), and actively cooperates with more than 14 countries producing our vaccine abroad, including India, China, Brazil, Mexico, Egypt, Iran, Italy, South Korea, Argentina, Kazakhstan, the Republic of Belarus, Serbia, Turkey, Vietnam, etc.

The RDIF is successfully conducting Phase 3 clinical trials in 4 countries: Belarus, the UAE, India and Venezuela. Sputnik V has been approved for use in 71 countries with a total population of 4 billion people.

Vaccination with Sputnik V is underway in more than 50 countries on 4 continents, including Argentina, Hungary, Bolivia, Algeria, Montenegro, Paraguay, etc.

Mass production and easy storage, transport, use, low cost, are essential...DJ new vaccines, way of vaccination may offer some perspective... 

[url][/url] or has 14 new "issues"  from around the globe...

DJ-Nasal vaccines are welcome news, also [url][/url] or

SEOUL, April 1 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's new daily COVID-19 cases dipped below 300,000 on Friday as the omicron wave that gripped the country for months appears to be topping out with 1 in every 4 people having had the virus.

The country reported 280,273 new COVID-19 infections, including 48 cases from overseas, bringing the total caseload to 13,375,818, the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA) said.

South Korea has seen a downward trend in daily COVID-19 infections for the first time in about three months, recording a nearly one-month low of 187,182 on Monday, in sharp contrast to the all-time high of over 620,000 on March 17.

DJ, the BA.2 (? was it BA.2.2 from Hong Kong ????) variant finally slowing down in South Korea...bad news of course is it is increasing (again) in lots of other places...US cases now at -0,8%...deaths -18%...

Iran cases +61%...[url][/url] or I hoped to find more info on the sub-variant spreading in Iran....[url][/url] or info is from march 1...BA.2 at 14% of all 60 day sequences...Maybe India-sources could give more info...Worldometers gets its info from [url][/url] or

End of this part...tomorrow morning I try to get more...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 01 2022 at 10:15pm



U.S. COVID update: Cases rise for 4th day this week - New cases: 33,403 - Average: 27,071 (+111) - States reporting: 41/50 - In hospital: 14,528 (-130) - In ICU: 2,322 (-58) - New deaths: 642 - Average: 667 (-33) More data:


Shanghai reports 6,311 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase on record

but also [url][/url] or looking at 4 week trends...

DJ-[url][/url] or  like all other statistics need cases to get tested and reported...If countries for whatever reason fail to test and report you simply may not be able to get usefull statistics...

Looking at "highest new cases" South Korea, Germany and France still (all above 100,000 cases) make up the top 3...There is no "new cases per million of population"; otherwise that could be used to see how-relatively-countries are doing...

When you go for "active cases" US has over 15 million, Germany over 4,5 million, France 2,3 million, Vietnam 2 million...the UK in this worldometer-info at #5 with 1,975 million active cases...however [url][/url] or puts that number-based on selfreporting of symptoms-at 5 million...

So "pick your number"....NL CoViD deaths; NL CDC just over 20,000, NL-statistics office 40,000 (based on death certificates)....

[url][/url] or also has some-limited-use to get the bigger picture...Global cases being reported now at -13%, deaths -19%...

Papua New Guinea cases +67,000%...0 case last week, 670 last 7 days...maybe the news is did P.N.G. not have tests last week, enough tests the last 7 days ??? [url][/url] or 100% BA.2 last 60 days sequences...last info from march 4...Somehow Outbreak sticking to "just BA.2" while there most likely are lots of subvariants of BA.2 (BA.2.1 UK, BA.2.2 Hong least to BA.2.7  and then there are sub-sub-lineages...BA.2.2.1 .....not to be mixed up with recombinations now going to XM (NL link).....

So numbers....but you need-certainly this far in this pandemic-need context to see what the numbers reported cases over 1,3 million-till december 2021-start of Omicron-the number was under a million per day for new cases....Reported deaths 3,747....a low number-when you look at the number of reported deaths per day during this pandemic...

But these are "easy numbers"; a case is a person testing positive-at least in most countries-often linked tp PCR-testing...Also "death" is quite clear defined...but complications start with did a person die "with" or "from" CoViD...given a lot of those who die from it also are 70+, 80+...older people...

Another much less defined point is "Long CoViD"...for (I believe the CDC a.o.) some +6 weeks of healt issues is "Long CoViD others may put a limit at 6 months or a year...

Linking that "Long CoViD" to chronic Q-fever, Lyme-disease, ME-CFS/post-viral syndrome may make clear the socio-economic consequences; people unable to do a/their job long time...but also brings in denial;

-Long CoViD patients themselve may find it very hard to accept "their live has changed"...still some recover...not allways clear how that proces goes...

-Politics/economy has to provide some basic income&care for a large group of people

-Long CoViD will hit hard in "social jobs"; health care, education, security....

So-even if governments/healthcare was willing/able to give good numbers you still end up with a lot of questions....

[url][/url] or ;

While Ioannidis recognizes that there are no quantitative definitions for the end of a pandemic like COVID-19, he contends that the amount of immunity now present worldwide exceeds the threshold needed to declare SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, endemic – constantly present but not a public health emergency.

"By end 2021, probably 73-81% of the global population had been vaccinated, infected or both," he says. Pockets of low immunity, such as in places that pursued zero-COVID policies and/or with limited access to effective vaccines, may persist, causing regional outbreaks, but we will likely never see COVID-19 again trigger a global emergency.

Declaring the pandemic phase of COVID-19 to be concluded means understanding and accepting a new "normal".


Declaring the pandemic phase of COVID-19 to be concluded means understanding and accepting a new "normal".

"A decrease of COVID-19 deaths back to typical seasonal influenza levels may not necessarily happen in 2022 or even beyond," Ioannidis cautions. "With an increasingly aging global population, "normal" may still correspond to higher death counts... This should not be mistaken as a continued pandemic phase."

Easing out of the pandemic requires a widespread mental shift, as well. This means focusing more on indicators like hospital intensive care admissions to guide policy rather than just infections.


Exiting the pandemic also means reducing fearmongering coverage of COVID-19 in the popular media, the propagation of which undoubtedly contributed to the public's warped perception of COVID's risks throughout the pandemic. On average, Americans believed in early 2021 that 8% of deaths had occurred in people under the age of 24. The actual percentage as of today is 0.3%. Moreover, a third of the population has consistently believed that COVID leads to hospitalization in over half of infections. During the most recent Omicron wave, the proportion was 3% or lower.

Declaring an end to the pandemic phase of COVID-19 has benefits, Ioannidis says. For example, it could allow public health organizations to refocus their time and money on more pressing global health issues, like poor nutrition and hunger, which collectively claim the lives of 9 million people each year, including 3.1 million children. For comparison, at least 6.2 million people have died from COVID-19 over the past two years, the vast majority over age 65. Accepting endemicity and reducing societal restrictions and disruptions would also permit economies to stabilize more rapidly, alleviating hardship, easing inflation, and reducing global inequality. Lastly, moving on from the pandemic could ease some of the political divisions that have fractured societies across the globe.

DJ, I agree that it is time to 'put this pandemic in perspective"...

But to put it in perspective you have to be realistic on what this pandemic did and still is doing.....

-A low estimate for people dying from (not with !) CoViD may be around 20 million (maybe the real deathtoll for India may be above 6 million !)

-Long CoViD health issues may affect maybe over 100 million people ? 

-Worldometer puts active global cases at above 59 million

-There are lots of new sub-variants/recombinations

So-by putting this pandemic in a realistic perspective one could end up giving this pandemic MORE priority, not less ! This CoViD-pandemic can worsen other diseases, from TB, flu to HIV....and yes-good public healthcare does cost money ....

Almost 75,000 NEW Covid cases yesterday And from today the government are ENDING universally free Covid testing Ha, the irony of doing this on April Fool’s day. That’s exactly what they take us for.


Telling comment from a banker here in Zurich. I asked him, "What does the UK sell next" He didn't even hesitate. "O that's easy, every investment house knows that - the NHS,  worth a fortune.  We all want a piece of that deal"

there is a reason why this virus could become a pandemic...seeing everything as a profit-oppertunity, "the best government is no government"pseudo-liberalism....causing disaster (climate collapse) after disaster (endless wars-for profit) to this pandemic.....

The main reason why "pseudo liberalism-for profit" can be this dominant is because there is no well organized opposition against it...Even labour, "Green" do not want to stop "privatizing everything".....humans are self-destructive...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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[url],-13,146-new-covid-19-infections-in-last-24-hours-despite-stringent-lockdowns-and-measures[/url] or,-13,146-new-covid-19-infections-in-last-24-hours-despite-stringent-lockdowns-and-measures 

China has "no chance" against BA.2 subvariants with the present strategy. The article mentions 13,146 new cases in China-Shanghai would see 8,226 new cases...somehow Worldometers only mentions 2,129 new Chines cases...trend would be -17% (last 7 days 11,246 new cases, week before 13,524...I think the TMN numbers are far more realistic...China is facing an explosion of BA.2 etc. that will see global economic consequences...). 

Shanghai reports 8,226 new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase on record

DJ, [url][/url] or

Shanghai has begun of a two-phase snap lockdown due to an increase of COVID-19 cases amid China’s zero-tolerance policy.  

Mass, staggered, nucleic acid testing is underway for the city’s 26 million people. 

China’s financial hub on Sunday reported a record 3,450 asymptomatic COVID-19 cases, accounting for nearly 70 percent of the nationwide total, along with 50 symptomatic cases. 

From Monday to Friday the Pudong financial district and nearby areas will be locked down, and the second phase, to begin Friday, will see a five day lockdown of the downtown area west of the Huangpu River.  

Residents are required to stay home and receive deliveries at designated checkpoints.

A look at the [url][/url] or

Researchers in several countries have identified hybrid variants of the Delta and Omicron strains of the coronavirus.

They have also found one recombinant variant of sublineages of Omicron, which has shown early signs of being even more transmissible than the parent variants.

(DJ-There could be reasons why the SCMP starts talking about recombinants...[url][/url] or  march 18...there now is also a NL [url][/url] or XM-variant...)

The article names BA.2.2 (Hong Kong) as dominant but several other (recombinant) variants are also spreading high speed...the real number of cases allready-DJ-in the millions ????

A latest number has over 50 million Chinese in lock would have to go for a "national lockdown" to get some sort of control...

[url][/url] or global cases would be only just over 1 million, trend -15%, 2,735 deaths -18%...

India only would have 1,096 new cases and 81 deaths (weekly trend -25% and -34%...)....If that would be a realistic number India would not have a pandemic....[url][/url] or

hCoV-19/India/KA-CBR-1402CTD094/2022 EPI_ISL_10306555 2022-02-11

Potentially worth keeping an eye on

From Cornelius Roemer at Gisaid – issue #484


Meanwhile, BA.2 activity is off the charts:

New #PANGO designations - BA.2.* 
BA.2.4Alias of B.1.1.529.2.4, #Singapore 
lineage BA.2.5Alias of B.1.1.529.2.5, 
lineage in #Portugal and other countries 
BA.2.6Alias of B.1.1.529.2.6, lineage in #France and other countries 
BA.2.7Alias of B.1.1.529.2.7, #USA lineage

DJ [url][/url] or is 9 days fact [url][/url] or is full of recombinations/mutations...with limited testing/sequencing that is VERY !!! alarming !

Somehow BA.2.1 to BA.2.7 and further NOT showing up in [url][/url] or only mentiong "BA.2" and BA.3" (so also missing a possible BA.4 from South Africa...)...

So "living with the virus", "it is mild", "endemic NOT pandemic"...[url][/url] or UK over 4,5 million active cases....most likely highest number in this pandemic...

The fact that it may not get you in hospital or worse in the short term does not mean we should not check for longer term effects...

Raj Rajnarayanan
Assistant Dean of Research and Associate Professor, NYITCOM at Arkansas State University | My Tweets are my own

he is coming up with the BA.2.1 to 7 subvariants...may have Asian roots but working from the how can it be those BA.2 subvariants are ignored ????

#COVID19 #VariantDashboard - #UnitedStates  TOP lineages (15-DAY TRENDS): 60.38% BA.2*, <--   32.70% BA.1.1*, 6.04% BA.1* & 0.78%  None     *#Omicron  Tracker (by State, by Variant): Updated 04/02/22

link; [url][/url] or still only showing "BA.2"...not much more detailed...

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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part 2, 

Scotland may see 50% more deaths in second Omicron wave, says expert ⁦⁩ called it

DJ link [url][/url] or

It comes as the number of people reported in hospital with Covid returned to the highest on record on Friday, while the infection rate dipped slightly to the second-highest ever.

Covid infections have hit a record high across the UK, as free lateral flow testing came to an end in England on Friday. The same measure will be taken at the end of April in Scotland, with asymptomatic testing ending on April 18.


James Naismith, professor of structural biology at Oxford University, said Scotland was “living with the virus by being infected with it”. The number of people reported in hospital with Covid rose again on Friday to 2,383, matching the previous record set on Tuesday.

The number of Covid-related deaths at the peak of the second Omicron wave is set to be 50 per cent higher than during the first wave, according to estimates from Professor Sheila Bird, a senior visiting fellow at the Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit at Cambridge University and Honorary Professor of Edinburgh University’s College of Medicine.

Some 280 deaths were recorded with Covid-19 mentioned on the death certificate across the two-week peak of the Omicron subvariant BA.1 between January 10 and 23. 

But according to Prof Bird, the same figure over the current BA.2 peak between March 14 and 27 could reach 435 – an increase of 55 per cent.

This figure is based on estimates, due to delays in the registering and recording of deaths by National Records of Scotland.

Prof Bird said this figure assumes the past two weeks were the peak of the second wave of deaths. If not, the figures could become even worse.


Prof James Naismith said the current Omicron wave in Scotland had most likely peaked, at one in 12 people infected.

"No part of the UK has currently implemented effective control measures, the limit on prevalence of the virus is simply the proportion of susceptible people,” he said.

“This is literally living with the virus by being infected with it.”

Prof Naismith added that BA.2 still kills vulnerable people who are unvaccinated, and by risking such high levels of infection the UK has “decided to run a Long Covid experiment”.

Scotland is hit hard by BA.2.1 ...Most countries go for "ecomy/short term" first only to find out public health on the longer term is essential for the economy...but that "will be after next elections" "the show/lies must go on"....

Maybe-as a reminder [url][/url] or ByEric Feigl-Ding


I believe China is now teetering at the edge between barely containing BA2 wave of COVID-19 and completely losing control like it has in Hong Kong—which we know could spell horrible conditions outcomes and huge economic difficulties and disruption to the most critical manufacturing and export centers of the world. Thus, this bodes extremely poorly for the rest of the global supply chain crisis and economic stability. And it could even spillover into the Russian-Ukraine driven inflation crisis. What happens in China over the coming weeks will affect the world. COVID is not over — with the world acting slowly only further endangering the world.

God help us.

DJ [url][/url] or  BA.2 variants are now becoming dominant in the US...

Maybe-indeed-India would now have low numbers of CoViD after a high BA.2 cases wave...the "bad news" is it is more then likely new forms of CoViD may start spreading there as well...worldometer trends also indicating cases going up in Southern Africa a.o. 

Again "western media" doing a terrible job by ignoring risks...they spread disinformation to "serve their owners and advertisers" NOT the general public that would LOVE to believe the pandemic is over (climate change not being real, "we are winning the biden-war" etc...). 

The main reason why history can repeat itself-maybe in a somewhat different way-is that we do not want to know history, deny mistakes instead of learn from them...

We all are humans-far from perfect...making a mistake is NOT "a sin"....Maybe "religion" sometimes demands us to be "perfect" but we never will be perfect... 

[url][/url] or

“Here, we show neuroinflammation, microhemorrhages, brain hypoxia, and neuropathology that is consistent with hypoxic-ischemic injury in SARS-CoV-2 infected non-human primates (NHPs), including evidence of neuron degeneration and apoptosis.

Importantly, this is seen among infected animals that do not develop severe respiratory disease, which may provide insight into neurological symptoms associated with “long COVID”. Sparse virus is detected in brain endothelial cells but does not associate with the severity of central nervous system (CNS) injury.”

Preprint: Neuropathology and virus in brain of SARS-CoV-2 infected non-human primates

DJ-Long CoViD in (non-human) animals (I think...) 

A few other links;

[url][/url] or 


[url][/url] or 

DJ-Long term health effects of CoViD may be harder to follow...but most likely will be there...But even in the short term China, US, other countries will be hit hard by BA.2 etc...

Josette Schoenmakers

Replying to @JosetteSchoenma @ARGOSamsterdam and 3 others
So, you check for a Spike:S371L mutation to find a BA.1, right? Which is caused by the T22673C mutation. Usually in BA.1/BA.2 recombinants the spike is BA.2. I ran all Dutch 2022 samples through Scarf and found one BA.2 (green) sample with a C there (red).


[url][/url] or 

Lots of people doing the best they can may get defunded because "politics/economy" does not want to hear it...

End of part 2

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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DJ, Ido expect [url][/url] or in variants in the present pandemic...

[url][/url] or

  • The number of microorganisms in a culture will increase exponentially until an essential nutrient is exhausted, so there is no more of that nutrient for more organisms to grow. Typically the first organism splits into two daughter organisms, who then each split to form four, who split to form eight, and so on. Because exponential growth indicates constant growth rate, it is frequently assumed that exponentially growing cells are at a steady-state. However, cells can grow exponentially at a constant rate while remodeling their metabolism and gene expression.[3]
  • A virus (for example COVID-19, or smallpox) typically will spread exponentially at first, if no artificial immunization is available. Each infected person can infect multiple new people.

DJ, The hope was immunity (via vaccines-at least the idea was it would make a difference...or after infection) would "end" this pandemic...It does not...The virus is that widespread and that much able to mutate it is finding ways around (natural and/or vaccine) immunity....

So we may end up with lots of virusses-able to infect hosts;

-at the same time

-no (effective) immunity against (most) other variants...

-DJ-maybe even worse making the host more vulnerable for all kinds of other diseases...

-Increase of spread in non-human-hosts

-increase of interaction/spread in more species

Is that bad ? YES ! Only nuclear war-in my opinion-is now a larger risk...This healthcrisis now is even more major then climate collapse...

So-it should be top of the global agenda...instead we see yet another major war...propaganda and mass-murder...

What is providing hope ?

-Better vaccines against (more) corona-virus infections...nasal spray-vaccines are on their way..

-Lots of people showing they have more brains than their government...still limiting contacts, using masks...

-Slowly more room to work/study from home...

-Less travel (costs are going up high speed) so less variants flying around the globe...

[url][/url] or ;

“The Chinese mainland reported 13,146 local COVID-19 cases on Sunday, including 1,455 confirmed and 11,691 asymptomatic ones, the highest number of daily increase since the latest outbreak, which has already infected over 100,000 people.”

“The high transmission of the Omicron variant is another factor, he said, noting that it accounts for about 80 percent of the recent COVID-19 cases reported in China, with BA.2 and BA.1.1 subvariants being the most prevalent in the country.”

“Suzhou in East China’s Jiangsu Province, which borders Shanghai, discovered a confirmed coronavirus disease patient infected with a mutation VOC/Omicron variant BA.1.1, unidentified in previously found strains worldwide, posing new threats to the already dangerous situation in the region.”

Global Times reports


The new iteration of the virus, isolated from a mild Covid-19 patient in a city less than 70 kilometers (43 miles) from Shanghai, evolves from the BA.1.1 branch of the omicron variant, Global Times reported, citing sequencing data from local health authorities. The report said the subtype doesn’t match other coronavirus that’s causing Covid in China nor those submitted to GISAID, where scientists around the world share the coronavirus they sequenced as a way to monitor mutations.

Bloomberg news report

DJ, real number of China daily cases-a lot of them with no or only mild symptoms (and for that reason not "a case" in the Chinese definition...) may be in the hundreds of thousends if not millions...

I do NOT like the sarcasm; [url][/url] or but of course bojo simply claiming "there is no pandemic"  when BA.2.1 was hitting the UK is showing 'the leadership we do NOT need"...

This pandemic IS political because the choice to put "economy first" is political...and wrong ! You can not have a good economy without good public healthcare-ignoring a pandemic...Privatizing the NHS will only make matters worse...The UK still close to 1,000 CoViD deaths per week "we have to love with"...

Most of the serious cases and deaths are in the poor...not in government circles in most countries...

And then this [url][/url] or ..dr. John Campbell showing up on ...

Dr John Campbell on the recent release of documents relating to the Pfizer vaccine showing that there were 1,223 associated deaths in the first three months of use.

DJ march 9 video...

[url][/url] or again underlining the ammount of damage the virus can do all over the body....

[url][/url] or more subvariants, recombinations etc....

So [url][/url] or only 779,417 new cases being reported, weekly trend -17% and only 1,897 deaths, trend -20% should be very welcome...if they were realistic...And we all know testing is getting harder...reporting is "discouraged"....

[url][/url] or following BA.2 growth in the US...

In case u feel like looking at BA. 2 + Spike L452 mutation 👀 Look at its growth advantage 🔥

DJ, [url][/url] or showing some of the reactions on that....

Army logistics branch arrived in Shanghai to help implementing lockdowns at communities. This suggests 0COVID policy is here to stay, not only in SH but anywhere else in China. A large quarantine center w private rooms will come online in weeks for 500-700K patients o/s of SH.

DJ, China trying to stick to zero-CoViD even if it will be very hard....(I think there is no alternative..."freedom" simply did bring us out of control exponential growth of the will get very ugly...). 

⚠️WARNING⚠️ 🚨Herd immunity via kids in UK 🇬🇧!🚨 "If child have mild symptoms and they feel well enough, they can go to school" Please, stop mass infections in children!🙏 CC:      


Malgorzata (Gosia) Gasperowicz

Health Minister of Germany: "In a few years we will see full extent #LongCovid . Now everyone should try to avoid infection. Even if the course is mild, there is a risk that life will change. Nobody likes to hear it, but that's the way it is" #ResistInfection #ResistReinfection…

DJ.....So we are now in a phase in wich the virus has all chance to go wild and it did...

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Another climate report-with no new news...we need to do more...but "we" will not do more...The US war with Asia may further escalate...not only in (European) Ukraine stopping Russia as part of Eur-Asian integration, but also wars in Syria, political crisis in Pakistan...(DJ-I hope to find time to look into the Sri Lanka ? "Ceylon" till 1972 crisis). 

The pandemic-as far as not being ignored, censored etc...Most of "the west" now going for "living with it" like "living with climate change"...[url][/url] or weekend numbers but still-even then-unrealistic..Reported new cases (for sunday) 735,057 trend -18%, 2,453 deaths -18% as well...with lots of BA.2 subvariants increasing around the "stop testing" will bring "this pandemic under control"....

The weekly trends for new cases still may give some indication on the pandemic. Canada cases +33% (from close to 45,000 to close to 60,000 last 7 days) ...US cases would be -10% ????

Replying to 
BA.2.3.2 (aka B.1.1.529.2.3.2) | Prevalent in #Vietnam #Japan and other countries Key mutations: E:S55F COV-spectrum predicts a global growth advantage of 12% over BA.2 and 64% over BA.1.1 #PANGO designations:


BA.2.10.1 (aka B.1.1.529.2.10.1) | Prevalent in #Singapore and other countries Key mutations: S:G798D COV-spectrum predicts a growth advantage of 11% over BA.2 and 43% over BA.1.1 in Singapore #PANGO designations:

DJ Simply showing new subvariants (most of them from BA.2) are (re)infecting on a large scale...

Shanghai's caseload alone breaks the all-time high for all of mainland China (13,146 new cases on Sunday). The national update will be released soon.

Is China only reporting "symptomatic cases" a.o. to Worldometers (China cases -5%) ? If South Korea, Hing Kong earlier give some indication China may be seeing maybe 1 million + cases per day...[url][/url] or UK over 4,5 million "active symptomatic cases"...but increase may be going flat...(not -31% yet as trends is showing for the UK...). 

[url][/url] or ;

“This recombinant (XD) exhibits immune escape properties similar to Omicron, while its behavior in mice expressing the human ACE2 receptor is more similar to Delta.”

For XD cases: “The median age was 32.5 years (IQR 19.75-44.75), which was similar to Omicron cases (35 years), however, significantly more XD cases were below 20 years of age (25.7%) compared to Omicron cases (11.3%, p= 0.026, Extended Data Fig. 2b).

Only two XD cases reported a previous SARS-CoV-2 infection (5.6%, Table 1), fewer than for Omicron (14%). No XD case was over 70 years old, and no risk factor was reported. Only 6% of recombinant cases were unvaccinated (vs 27% for Omicron cases), and 30% had received three doses (vs 8%), but the overall vaccination coverage of the population was different between the XD and Omicron study periods.

All XD cases reported here from France were symptomatic and most reported symptoms were headache (61.1%), asthenia/fatigue (58.3%), cough (44.4%), fever (38.9%) and myalgia (33.3%, Extended Data Fig. 2b). The main differences compared to Omicron cases were the higher rates of ageusia (odds ratio OR 2.71 [1.064-6.514], p=0.024) and anosmia (OR 1.98 [0.66-5.251], p = 0.18). Two XD cases were hospitalized, one for unrelated causes, but for less than 24h and without intensive care admission.”

“With the XD virus, we did not observe weight loss (in mice) during the first 5 dpi, but all mice deteriorated rapidly between day 5 and 8 and died or had to be euthanized by day 9. Clinical scores followed the same progression and delayed onset in XD- compared with AY.4-infected mice”

Preprint: Rapid characterization of a Delta-Omicron SARS-CoV-2 recombinant detected in Europe


** Can we avoid downplaying this variant as “mild” until we have more evidence?  The 100% symptomatic infection rate could mean it is very far from mild despite the lack of hospitalizations and deaths reported in this preprint **

DJ, Most of this recombinant-story from France...

[url][/url] or ;

Thailand has reported its first cases of Omicron XE and XJ.  Both are recombinations of different versions of the Omicron variant. The finding of XE, a mutant hybrid of the BA.1 and BA.2 variants, was reported by the Center for Medical Genomics, Ramathibodi Hospital on Saturday March 2022.

The head of the Centre for Medical Genomics (CMG) at Ramathibodi Hospital, which diagnosed the patient found with the strain, said the individual had already made a full recovery.

Bangkok Times report


The Bangkok Times has also reported the first case of the XJ recombinant in the country. The recombinant was first reported in Finland.

Bangkok Times- Delivery man may be infected with new XJ Covid variant 

DJ, Variants now again enjoy more free global air travel....Thailand recombinant story (recombination of recombinations...)

[url][/url] or ; “We present evidence of spillover infection of wild mustelids by reporting the presence of SARS-CoV-2 in a Eurasian river otter found near a water reservoir in the Valencian Community, Spain.” Mutations in the sequencing point to human origin of the virus, although their specific combination was unique

Why not ? The virus jumped from humans into otters-resulting in a "unique sequence" (Otter variant...One only can hope it does not spread...). 

[url],-leading-to-more-genetic-variants[/url] or,-leading-to-more-genetic-variants 

DJ-a virus does not have a "will/brain" however its natural "drive" (as far as I get it) will be to create as many new virusses as it can...

Two major ways;

-Infect as many hosts as possible

-Create as high as possible numbers of virus in a host

The limit is that killing all the hosts at once is the end for the it will need to "balance"....It also needs to find ways around (natural/vaccine) immunity...Most mutations/recombinations (maybe to be seen as "mega-mutations") will result in a weaker virus...however giving the very high number of hosts and unlimited virus the virus will further develop, go exponential...

One theory I (not an expert at all !) can think of is the "virus developing away from humans"...If it is much easier for a virus to spread in (as example) mice maybe we could be lucky...We get out of the "frontline"...However as far as I get it the virus is "widening" potential hosts, not decreasing them...not specializing at a non-human alternative host...

📍Mass infection spillover—“Chaos” at . Hundreds of flights ✈️have been cancelled or delayed as airlines have been hit by staff absences due to #COVID19. 3 hour queues—some 🛬 flights delayed 24 hours. How is ‘let it rip’ good for economy?!

DJ, The economic "fall out" of this pandemic, limiting Chinese trade, global transport, education etc. will not be stopped by governments decreasing testing and claiming "we have to live with it"...[url][/url] or 

I think Long CoViD is already a major (but ignored) problem...People getting reinfected-or the virus remaining in the body doing more damage-may see their health only getting worse...

If "politics" answer is starting another global war that is unacceptable...

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Sometimes it may be good to look in the mirror and ask yourself if your vision of events-when it is that much different from the general view-is valid.  Since I base my view on sources maybe did I end up in a sort of tunnel vision? 

Three major concerns;

-Climate collapse; that is an easy one...All the world claims to want to stop climate "change"...The IPCC itself keeps repeating we are not doing enough...I do NOT claim to even understand most of the processes, feed backs etc...however lots of scientists go much further in their worries then the IPCC does...[url][/url] or , [url][/url] or 

Picture is quite depressing...

-Global peace [url][/url] or , [url][/url] or Alexander Mercouris...

We all would agree "there is a major crisis"....

-This pandemic; [url][/url] or, [url][/url] or 

[url][/url] or as an extra check ? Their latest "doomsday clock-adres" was from january 20...and it is "very US" no news on US bio-labs in Ukraine...even v.nuland admitting they were there...

So-for now-my conclusion is "I am not insane, the world is" [url][/url] or "The fool on the hill", very short version...

We are in a downward spiral, a downward vortex, a mega-mix with this pandemic being just one part...Did this pandemic start directly wars...not yet...However China with a locldown in Shanghai is "unwelcome" from an "economic-short term global point of view"...[url][/url] or 

That "economy first" view is dominating both in climate and pandemic discussions...Short term thinking-if there is any thinking at all...

Via [url][/url] or a link to "The Impossible Hamster" (and economic growth) [url][/url] or  everything has limits...even economies...

This brings me back to politics, "us" supposed to protect future lives, not destroy "our" (???) planet...The "only house" we have...

From a historic point of view we are now at the highest number of humans on this planet ever...almost 8 billion-most of them in Asia...Getting-at least untill recent-older then ever part that is a reason why there are so many people...Maybe if you look at the number of babies born we may have "peaked" allready somewhere between 1860 and 1960-2000 ? 

Relating that to the pandemic, most of the pandemic deaths were over 60...does that make this pandemic "less bad" ? "Those people would have died anyway" may be simply also incorrect...We all die one day but at 60 in most rich countries you may have 15-30 years of life in front of you...

If one would define the "seriousness" of a healthissue in "years of life lost" one could claim the present pandemic-so far-killed more people at an age most of the people in 1918-Spanish Flu-would never reach anyway...

Before mass vaccinations, good sewage systems, anti-biotics etc untill 1900 most people would be "old" at least that was life expectency..over centuries slowly climbing from 35 to 40...That did change in the 20th century..."Living with the virus" may bring back those days...although the high number of babies dying explained at least in part that low life expectency...

To put it simple-if in a group of 10 people 5 died before getting 1 year old the other 5 would have to get 160 to get the average life expectency at 80....

In history wars also were a "great way" to reduce lifespan...Often men between 18 and 40, sometimes even 10 y/o were "good enough"  did get the job of killing each other for some reason...A lot of those dying died from disease, exhaustion NOT from fighting...But with the men fighting harvest, production was a problem...they could not "combine those jobs" in most cases (The Romans may have been different in that view...)in the "war zone" often also a lot of the local population faced death...(refugees were not welcomed...a big war did mean economic crisis for a larger region=poverty, often starvation-no trade). 

In history wars and pandemics did mix "very good"...The Spanish Flu has to be related to World War 1...although there are different views on who had the first serious form of that flu (US soldiers arriving in France ? Or was there allready a "bad virus" spreading in Austria ?)

Maybe-to end this story-to answer my own question; Am I to pessimistic on the present global situation ? The future may give the real answer...Maybe over 20 years-2042-I would have to admit I am-for now-to pessimistic...It does not go that fast...some crisis stay limited...the virus did get mild...

I hope to find out in 2042 !

End of a reflective part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 06 2022 at 2:38am

part 2, 

From TMN the French PCR-test-evading recombination...[url][/url] or ;


Among the multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants identified since summer 2020, several have co-circulated, creating opportunities for coinfections and potentially genetic recombinations that are common in coronaviruses. 

Viral recombinants are indeed beginning to be reported more frequently. 

Here, we describe a new SARS-CoV-2 recombinant genome that is mostly that of a Omicron 21L/BA.2 variant but with a 3’ tip originating from a Omicron 21K/BA.1 variant. 

Two such genomes were obtained in our institute from adults sampled in February 2022 in university hospitals of Marseille, southern France, by next-generation sequencing carried out with the Illumina or Nanopore technologies. 

The recombination site was located between nucleotides 26,858-27,382. 

In the two genomic assemblies, mean sequencing depth at mutation-harboring positions was 271 and 1,362 reads and mean prevalence of the majoritary nucleotide was 99.3±2.2% and 98.8±1.6%, respectively. 

Phylogeny generated trees with slightly different topologies according to whether genomes were depleted or not of the 3’ tip. 

This 3’ terminal end brought in the Omicron 21L/BA.2 genome a short transposable element of 41 nucleotides named S2m that is present in most SARS-CoV-2 except a few variants among which the Omicron 21L/BA.2 variant and may be involved in virulence. 

Importantly, this recombinant is not detected by currently used qPCR that screen for variants in routine diagnosis. 

The present observation emphasizes the need to survey closely the genetic pathways of SARS-CoV-2 variability by whole genome sequencing, and it could contribute to gain a better understanding of factors that lead to observed differences between epidemic potentials of the different variants.

DJ-Decrease of testing "because it is mild" is stupidity...A variant that is evading the more easy way of testing is a disaster...So-after not looking for infections we soon may not be able to find them-even if we would like to increase testing...

[url][/url] or** So good to see the US setting an example for other nations to follow on this critical issue. **

DJ, Making this pandemic a priority by decreasing testing and reporting ? 


China reports 20,472 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase on record


Eric Feigl-Ding

I cry for England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿#BA2 hospitalizations have now exceeded old #Omicron’s peak—which were **merely 3 months ago**. So much for stupid mass infection natural herd strategy. This is @borisjohnson & @sajidjavid’s horrible British 🇬🇧 exceptionalism. HT @Antonio_Caramia #COVID19

-[url][/url] or now including more specific BA.2 subvariants...UK BA.2.1 only 2% of all sequences last 60 days ? BA.2.3 at 3%...most still named "BA.2" (59%) BA.1.1 (15%)...

7) Scotland 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳�£󠁴󠁿 #COVID19 hospitalizations not doing well either — it has exceeded all time pandemic high!!!


Maybe even worse ;

8) More CRIMINAL neglect by UK govt I’m not providing enough protection against airborne coronavirus, that then resulted in hospital worker deaths!!! Can’t make this up.


Dr Nafeez Ahmed FRSA

EXCLUSIVE: Government’s Health and Safety Executive refusing to investigate formal complaint from own advisor alleging 'criminal' healthcare worker deaths due to airborne transmission of COVID-19, documents seen exclusively by @BylineTimes reveal

I admire people still working in health care...caring for people while their government is having "bussiness parties to increase pandemic and war profits"....But "economy first" starts with destroying the public does not end there...A greed based global economy is a highway to selfdestruction !

China claims only 300 of 17,077 new cases are symptomatic— ➡️ supposedly 98% are asymptomatic!!! Either China is suppressing symptomatic numbers (which they report officially), or #BA2 is HOLY SHIT silently contagious. I don’t know which is worse. 🤔 #COVID19

DJ, China is planning to test ALL 26 million people in Shanghai before ending the lockdown there...but there are limits to even what a "very active" government can do...Given how many countries did see over 100,000 new cases per day  (South Korea, France, Germany still at those high numbers-with a much smaller population and less strict rules) I think China may be over the 100,000 new cases per day...Maybe even over 1 million new cases per day ???

End of part 2 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 06 2022 at 11:53pm


China is now facing the worst of the pandemic-when one looks at positive tests (most without symptoms yet) and "lockdown/economic consequences". 

Still [url][/url] or "only" reporting 1,2 million new cases, trend -22%. There are 3,598 deaths "linked to CoVid" (no doubt excess deaths may give another picture...). 

[url][/url] or DJ-hal turner often "makes his own conclusions" with wich I often do not agree. 

Quick investigation of the Preliminary USA mortality data for 2021 from the CDC reveals:

Total deaths - 3,447,405
Expected deaths - 2,948,273
Excess deaths - 499,132

0% increase = 1X, 100% increase = 2X, 200% increase = 3X, etc. 5000% increase = 51X.

499,132 X 51 = 25,455,732 excess deaths. That is what Attorney Todd Callendar indicates the USA could see ! ! !

Add to that the 2.95 million expected deaths, and the result is:

28,405,732 total deaths for 2022.

DJ, HT is linking increase of deaths with vaccines NOT with CoViD...[url][/url] or vaccines are not free of risks...however the picture I get is in most cases they do offer (at least) some protection against severe disease, long CoViD and even-limited-to spreading "the"virus...

DJ-HT his numbers of 25,4 million extra US deaths are NOT science...There is good monitoring of excess deaths and in most countries those numbers do indicate higher then "normal" number of people dying...Part of it may be (long) CoViD related...The US so far (worldometers) did see over 1 million "CoViD deaths" a lot of long term damage however is it is not that easy to claim "it is mild"....

But there is no discussion on a need for better vaccines ! As far as I see a lot of agreement on that ! [url][/url] or Sputnik in Russia hopes to be using nasal vaccines soon...

Most of the world did NOT use (US) mRNA vaccines (simply to expensive for them). And Russian, Chines, Cuba-Iran vaccines are more "traditional" (adeno-virus, dead viral parts). The US "sanction war against the world" most likely will further decrease the role of (US) mRNA vaccines....(however the mRNA technique will get further development). 

China now at #47 for new cases reporting 1,415 "new cases" -but China only reporting symptomatic cases as a case...(there is no international agreement on "what a case is" you go for PCR-tests ? What kind of PCR-tests ? If you include at home testing "lateral flow" -based on what instructions ? Only nasal swab-or also oral swab...Omicron very likely will be missed by nasal swabs often...).

[url][/url] or ; The Cabinet of the Netherlands revealed details of its long-term strategy for dealing with the coronavirus. Business sectors are being asked to develop plans for dealing with future outbreaks of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus in four different scenarios, from mild to severe. At the same time, it will no longer be considered essential that people with symptoms of Covid-19 visit a GGD center to get tested. Moving forward, healthy lifestyles, fitness, and exercise will be encouraged more frequently, NOS reported.


The GGD will continue to offer PCR testing for coronavirus infections, which can be useful for those who need official proof of recovery from the coronavirus infection. The health services will also continue to test people who are more vulnerable members of society, and those unable to use a self-test kit, NOS reported. PCR testing will be scaled up quickly, if an outbreak occurs in the future.


The cost of self-tests will not be reimbursed by the Dutch government, NOS reported. The government will issue new advice about what to do when a self-test indicates someone is positive for the coronavirus infection. The Cabinet wants people to continue to follow basic pieces of advice, like remaining home if symptomatic, washing hands frequently, and coughing or sneezing into an elbow

DJ, NL-like many other countries-reducing "offical testing/reporting".  From a "pandemic view" other methods may be more effective. 

-Ad random testing-even people without symptoms-may give more insight in asymptomatic spread

-blood donors see their blood being examed for the virus (very high percentage has antibodies-96% in NL I believe-most because of vaccines)

-Sewage control also may tell more-in an early stage

So there may be even better alternatives to "massive testing" big question is will that be used ? Or does "living with the virus" translate to ignoring it ? 

South Korea still reporting 286,243 new cases -24%, 371 deaths -10%

Germany 204,930 new cases -22%, 333 deaths +15%

France 161,950 new cases -1%, 128 deaths -5%

end of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 07 2022 at 1:52am


I am NOT a medical expert at all-trying to find out what the (health)risks are...So far statistics gave an "easy indication". [url][/url] or was far from perfect but at least some help....

With less testing, reporting and more variants evading tests (we did see one over a year ago in Finland, now another one showing up in France [url][/url] or ) "statistics" even further decrease in use...lots of spread already was without (much) symptoms...

So-I would like to know how "mild" this pandemic is getting...I think there is no easy answer to that question...Case Fatality Ratio (CFR) for Omicron now to be under the CFR of flu...however we may simply miss a lot from the (longer term) story...Long CoViD in itself also is a major problem ! 

[url][/url] or ;

Here, we developed an L452R mutated Omicron variant (Omicron-L452R) and found that the Omicron-L452R variant rescued fusogenicity and strengthened the high infectivity by enhancing the cleavage of the spike protein. Notably, Omicron-L452R greatly enhanced the ability of Omicron to infect lung tissues of humanized ACE2 mice.

Furthermore, the Omicron-L452R variant dramatically enhanced glycolysis in host cells. Our data suggest that the decreased fusogenicity of the Omicron variant is due to a lack of the L452R mutation present in the Delta variant.

Preprint: SARS-CoV-2 spike L452R mutation increases Omicron variant fusogenicity and infectivity as well as host glycolysis



#OmicronUpdates #NewLineageAlerts  BA.4  alias of BA.1.1.529.4 BA.5  alias of BA.1.1.529.5 BA.2.11 alias of BA.1.1.529.2.11 BA.2.12 alias of BA.1.1.529.2.12 BA.2.12.1 alias of BA.1.1.529.2.12.1 #Pango #Designations

Is this a problem ? Well in combination with this;

Oh wow. Rapid tests only 37% sensitive for Omicron?  Unprecedented evolution.  Was this in the textbook you were citing?

Quote Tweet


Unpublished data by #Ontario science table: Sensitivity of #rapidtests to #Omicron is 37%, vs 81% for Delta. In other words, LOTS of false negatives. If you have symptoms, assume it's COVID and isolate anyway.

It may be even "more then a problem"...we may be without effective testing....

[url][/url] or


DJ Both and [url][/url] or will see updates soon...

Tracking the rise of BA.2 + S:L452Q in #NewYork  BA.2.3 in #NewYork has picked up S:L452Q mutation (has significant growth advantage over BA.2.3) - 27 sequences BA.2.12 (Spike S704L) has picked up S:L452Q (B.12.1) in #NewYork - 319 sequences 


BA.2.12.1 (aka B.1.1.529.2.12.1) | Prevalent in #UnitedStates  Key mutations: Spike S704L, L452Q COV-spectrum predicts a global growth advantage of 32% over BA.2 and 105% over BA.1.1   Mutation spotted by  and others #PANGO issue: #499

So newer variants may spread faster...soon learn if it brings more severe disease (US cases -1%, deaths still -27%)

End of part 2

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 07 2022 at 2:46am

part 3, 

[url][/url] or

“The results indicated that around 90 percent of viral transmission was cell-to-cell, possibly via fusion between neighboring infected and uninfected cells, Liu says. Further in vitro experiments that paired authentic SARS-CoV-2 with either the antiviral medication remdesivir or serum samples from people who received mRNA vaccines hinted that cell-to-cell transmission helped the virus avoid being neutralized by drugs or antibodies. This ability to spread without exiting the intracellular environment could help “lead to persistent or prolonged infection.” article: SARS-CoV-2 Can Spread Via Cell-to-Cell Transmission

DJ Do vaccines/immunity offer protection ? If 90% of the spread in a host you may need a very limited viral load to end up with serious (longer term) disease...At least that is how I read the above...[url][/url] or has lots more...

It's gaining pace. Hospitalizations bottoming now; the positivity rate 4.5% today. The problem with fudging the numbers is it works only in the beginning; once adjustments are baked in, the relative increase is visible again, though from a lower baseline.

BNO Newsroom

U.S. COVID update: Daily cases rise 7 days in a row, up 8% from last week - New cases: 40,573 - Average: 28,067 (+402) - States reporting: 42/50 - In hospital: 13,663 (+17) - In ICU: 2,043 (-84) - New deaths: 1,065 - Average: 582 (-12) More data:

DJ, So for the US worldometers weekly trend still -1% for new cases, BNO already at +8% ? 

Well, recombination could be a mix of both, and coronaviruses are fond of that. The recombinant result could be something that feels "almost" new in effect.