Click to Translate to English Click to Translate to French  Click to Translate to Spanish  Click to Translate to German  Click to Translate to Italian  Click to Translate to Japanese  Click to Translate to Chinese Simplified  Click to Translate to Korean  Click to Translate to Arabic  Click to Translate to Russian  Click to Translate to Portuguese  Click to Translate to Myanmar (Burmese)

Forum Home Forum Home > Main Forums > General Discussion
  New Posts New Posts RSS Feed - scenario's
  FAQ FAQ  Forum Search   Events   Register Register  Login Login

Now tracking the new emerging South Africa Omicron Variant


 Post Reply Post Reply Page  <1 2728293031>
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group

Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 60152
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 29 2021 at 9:20pm

HoneyBee08-thanks for your good information. Individual health background has to be a major factor in this pandemic as well. There are statistics on diabetes, obesity, mental problems. Linking those statistics to CoViD-19 is not always simple. 

We did have a major Q-fever outbreak in the south of NL over 10 years ago. It first looked like chronic Q-fever patients did see more, more severe CoViD...Now the idea is the Q-fever factor may have been biased, getting overrepresented...So chronic Q-fever does NOT give more chance for (severe) CoViD...[url][/url] or

"We had a very large outbreak in the Netherlands where the epicenter was close to Nijmegen, in Herpen. So we saw a lot of patients. Logical clinical research questions followed: how do you recognize the infection, which patients get complications, how do you treat the patients and what are the possible long-term consequences for patients?"

"We also do immunological research: why become some people very sick, and others not? Some Q fever patients get chronic Q fever, where the bacteria just won't leave the body, and some get Q fever fatigue syndrome. The infection is gone, but people continue to have symptoms, such as fatigue and difficulty concentrating, for a long time. We are conducting research into the possible cause of these long-term symptoms, and looking for an effective treatment."

DJ There are lots of similarities between Q-fever and CoViD-19. Proberbly suggesting a lot of the disease is related to (over)reaction of the immune system. What may help in chronic Q-fever (wich has a bacterial infection at the start) and "long-CoViD" could therefore be a same sort of treatment, trying to get the immunesystem back in the rails...

[url][/url] or (MK-4482/EIDD-2801) is an investigational, orally administered form of a potent ribonucleoside analog that inhibits the replication of multiple RNA viruses including SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of COVID-19. Molnupiravir has been shown to be active in several preclinical models of SARS-CoV-2, including for prophylaxis, treatment, and prevention of transmission, as well as SARS-CoV-1 and MERS. Molnupiravir was invented at Drug Innovations at Emory (DRIVE), LLC, a not-for-profit biotechnology company wholly owned by Emory University.

"Limited news" ; "Molnupiravir" will be one of many drugs now in development. Another factor has to be the costs...expensive (for profit) pharma-products are a major problem when you are dealing with a pandemic. There seems to be no political will to "nationalize" vaccine etc. production in western countries. The political degeneration seems to think pandemic-profits are okay....

Here in Europe we had elections a.o. in Germany. In Berlin there is now a plan to "nationalize" housing to keep housing Graz-Austria communists won the election...(In Russia the communist party is second, Putins party is more nationalistic with links to the orthodox church...quite conservative...).

-Numbers [url][/url] or ; New reported cases 488,480, new reported deaths 8,807...trends cases -10%, deaths -7% still looking at 2020 lows a year ago 322,166 new cases were reported-a relative high-most of the summer months did see cases below 300,000 per day ! That day 5,659 deaths were reported...most days in those summer months did see below 6,000 deaths per day. Proberbly with more testing/reporting and without any vaccines !

Some countries (with reasonable testing and reporting-DRC may be doing its very best but increase of 183% in cases from 141 to 399 this week-on a population of almost 93 million indicates very limited testing -3,296 per million-in the Democratic Republic of Congo);

-Laos +73% for cases, Angola +61%, Romania +58%, Chile +46%, South Korea +37%, Ukraine +33%, Belize +33%, Poland +28%, Denmark +27%, Cambodia +25%, Bulgaria +20%, Venezuela +20%, Finland +19%, Uganda +16%, Papua New Guinea +13%, UK +12%, Russia +11%, Mexico +6%, Egypt +6%, Australia (!!!) +4%, Taiwan +2%, Canada +1%, Iceland +1%-I also mention Norway-reopening with cases -18%, Portugal cases -20%, one of the highest level of vaccinations-also reopening.

There are 73 countries reporting an increase of cases. Quite often it may be related with Delta(+) variants increasing-often after lifting of restrictions. However some of the increases may be related to new variants (or new Delta+ variants). 

DJ-Again I would love to believe we are moving out of this pandemic. Israel -cases -41% deaths 140 last and this week=still high-Cuba cases -17%, deaths -12% (last week 455, this week 400 on a population of 11,3 million=high) show vaccines work. Israel going full scale on booster vaccines, Cuba vaccinations in 2 y/o+ very young children....schools still closed. 

The statistics on vaccinations are "mixed up" often it is not clear if they are mentioning "adults only" (18 y/o+) or all of the population...(so new borns to 120 y/o+). A lot of countries reporting increases have low vaccinations...Denmark, Finland have high vaccinations but opening of schoolyear/lifting (to much ?) restrictions is pushing up statistics there...

A "case" is still someone testing positive for a CoronaViral Infection...even without symptoms. If you want to have working statistics redefining "a case" may destroy that tool. Most countries also have statistics on hospital cases-instead of "redefinition" one could choose to use hospital cases as a criteria. 

Still-even with high global number of cases-vaccination will result in even higher asymptomatic cases that do not see testing...We most likely will be drifting into a next wave due to a lack of ad random testing in the vaccinated without symptoms...

Coronavirusses are very stubborn, in animals a crisis is "solved" most by killing all the animals in an area..."We" keep underestimating this virus for political/economic reasons. Science is ignored ! Yes, scientists may not agree on all aspects, it is not their job to do so ! Science NEEDS discussion, questions-that is how we learn !

Politics should learn from science-try to get some main points-but keeps denying there is a major crisis-just like in the climate collapse...We have "good weather leaders" totally lossed in a storm...

-Flutrackers latest posts;

[url][/url] or ; Nothing lasts forever, including the effect of chemicals aimed to control pests in food production. As old pesticides have been compromised by emerging resistance, new ones have been introduced and turned the odds back in our favour. With time, however, some pests have developed multi-pesticide resistance, challenging our ability to control them.

DJ If you look at a timescale of the last 500 years progres in science has been explosive-still it will not solve all problems. We are "time-travellers", passengers on planet Earth only "on board" for a short while..guests-that need to learn how to behave !

[url][/url] or ; Russia has recorded its highest single-day coronavirus death toll during a surge in infections fuelled by the highly infectious Delta variant and a stuttering mass vaccination drive.

On Tuesday, authorities reported 852 deaths in the preceding 24 hours. The previous record figure for a single day was 828 deaths, registered on September 24.

Overall, Russia has recorded more than 205,000 COVID-19 deaths since the pandemic began, according to official figures.

The tally represents the highest death toll in Europe and fifth-highest globally.

There are now mounting concerns a fourth wave of infections is under way, weeks after millions of Russian students returned to schools and colleges.


Despite the rising caseload, few nationwide public restrictions have been put in place. Russia had one, six-week lockdown early this year...


It is disconcerting that the death toll in Russia has remained essentially flat at around 800/day since July. Afaik, that is unlike any other country, where the deaths have risen and fallen in waves.

DJ Low vaccinations, very limited restrictions=high number of cases/deaths = increased risks of new variants. Spread to (fur)animals in Russia is quite large...(Badger did link some of the mutations in variants to spread of CoViD in animals...very limited links/studies...economy first...)

[url][/url] or one of the latest;  just see the mortality estimates for India.
4 Million deaths , 0.28% of its population.
median age=28y , 6%>65 , 3.4%>70

DJ Are these numbers correct ? 

[url][/url] or ; The Canadian Medical Association is calling for lockdowns in Alberta and Saskatchewan to protect their "crumbling" health-care systems.

Both western provinces are setting hospitalization records for COVID-19, with intensive care capacity running slim.

Dr. Katharine Smart, president of the national association, is urging the federal and provincial governments to take immediate action.

The association is calling for short, controlled lockdowns, often called "firebreakers" or "circuit-breakers," which would close schools and non-essential businesses...

DJ Hospitalcare capacity may become a growing critical factor. A lot of HCW-ers are exhausted, went for other jobs with less risk, better hours...Putting economy first did put a long term extreme burden on healthcare. "Politics" is destroying public healthcare...

[url][/url] or a promising development, cases dropped across all WHO regions, with deaths falling in all parts of the world except for Africa, she said. However, Van Kerkhove said a big concern is that intense hot spots remain across all of the world's regions. "Delta circulates efficiently amongst unvaccinated populations where public health measures are not in place."

According to the WHO update, the steepest drops occurred in the Middle East, followed by the Western Pacific and the Americas. Few countries expect for Singapore and Laos reported sharp increases, though some European countries—such as the Russia, Turkey, and the United Kingdom—reported modest rises.

DJ When you look at numbers from september 2020 both cases and deaths in 2021-with massive vaccinations-are a lot higher ! From the same link; 

More global headlines

  • Africa will fall short of the WHO target of vaccinating 40% of country populations by the end of the year, as the region faces a 500 million-dose shortage, the WHO's African regional office said yesterday in its weekly outbreaks and health emergencies report. The shortage is related to a projected cutback in COVAX doses for the rest of the year. Currently, about 4.02% of the population is fully vaccinated, according to Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC).

  • The WHO's Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) said today that it has entered an agreement with Sinovac and is in advanced talks with other companies to buy additional COVID-19 vaccine, with the goal of bolstering supplies though bilateral deals and doses from COVAX. Ten countries in the region have vaccinated 70% of their populations, but 10 countries and territories reaching only 20%, with only 1% protected in Haiti so far.

  • New Zealand reported a jump in cases today, with 45 new infections reported, following a string of single-digit daily case totals, according to Reuters. All occurred in Auckland, and most were linked to known clusters. Officials said they expect occasional upticks in cases.

  • Though many countries are rethinking the goal of returning to zero COVID-19 cases, especially with the highly transmissible Delta variant, China is doubling down on keeping cases as low and possible and opened a 5,000-room quarantine center in Guangdong province for foreign travelers, according to CNN. Other Chinese business hubs are building or planning to build similar facilities.

  • The global total today topped 233 million, rising to 233,088,494 cases, along with 4,770,309 deaths, according to the Johns Hopkins online dashboard.

DJ In my-non expert, non-neutral, non-objective opinion the only realistic strategy is Zero-Covid...Only a few counties (China, Vietnam a.o.) are going for that goal.

[url][/url] or ; Between 11th–25th June 2021 (7-8 weeks after the second dose), 69 staff tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. 62 participated in the study. 

Most were asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic and all recovered. Twenty-two complete-genome sequences were obtained; all were Delta variant and were phylogenetically distinct from contemporary viruses obtained from the community or from hospital patients admitted prior to the outbreak. Viral loads inferred from Ct values were 251 times higher than in cases infected with the original strain in March/April 2020. 

Median time from diagnosis to negative PCR was 21 days (range 8–33). 

Neutralizing antibodies (expressed as percentage of inhibition) measured after the second vaccine dose, or at diagnosis, were lower in cases than in uninfected, fully vaccinated controls (median (IQR): 69.4 (50.7-89.1) vs. 91.3 (79.6-94.9), p=0.005 and 59.4 (32.5-73.1) vs. 91.1 (77.3-94.2), p=0.002). 

There was no correlation between vaccine-induced neutralizing antibody levels and peak viral loads or the development of symptoms.

Breakthrough Delta variant infections following Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccination may cause asymptomatic or mild disease, but are associated with high viral loads, prolonged PCR positivity and low levels of vaccine-induced neutralizing antibodies. Epidemiological and sequence data suggested ongoing transmission had occurred between fully vaccinated individuals.

DJ Do we see a trend of higher viral load in vaccinated (AZ-O) and genetic differences catching Delta ? In that case this news should be alarming ! The (AZ-O) vaccine does not stop the spread enough in those vaccinated-resulting in a worse Delta-variant spreading...

We do need to increase ad random testing of vaccinated people without symptoms to detect/monitor spread of these new Delta "variations"!

[url][/url] or Health Ministry announced on Sunday that from next week recovered COVID-19 patients will be required to get a single coronavirus vaccine shot in order to be eligible to receive a Green Pass. Under the current Green Pass rules, entry to certain businesses and events is limited to those with proof of vaccination, recovery from COVID-19, or a negative test result. The new rule is set to take effect October 3....

DJ [url][/url] or’s debate whether the higher reinfection breakthrough rate it’s because natural immunity wanes & a lot of time has passed since many infected last year. Possibly—but isn’t that a strong argument to get a vaccine add-on and not play it risky with just natural immunity?

There is a lot of discussion on natural immunity. My (very limited) impression is that it could offer protection on the short term-often. On the longer term one has to have questions...People that once had SARS-1, MERS seem to be protected against SARS-2 even after years...but in a.o. Manaus-Brazil supposed massive natural protection was not enough to stop a second wave several months later...

[url][/url] or ; Seafarers, truck drivers and airline workers have endured quarantines, travel restrictions and complex Covid-19 vaccination and testing requirements to keep stretched supply chains moving during the pandemic.

But many are now reaching their breaking point, posing yet another threat to the badly tangled network of ports, container vessels and trucking companies that moves goods around the world.

In an open letter Wednesday to heads of state attending the United Nations General Assembly, the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) and other industry groups warned of a "global transport system collapse" if governments do not restore freedom of movement to transport workers and give them priority to receive vaccines recognized by the World Health Organization.


One world vaccine government.

Inconsistent requirements mean that some seafarers have been vaccinated multiple times because some countries have approved only certain vaccines, according to Platten.

He knows of at least one seafarer who has received six vaccine doses, or three two-dose regimens. "It's an absolute nightmare. I can't understand why we don't have some sort of global standard,"

DJ It would be more then welcome if some-basic most used vaccines-would give entry for transport workers worldwide...Why we still do not have such a system is beyond me...

[url][/url] or ; As of early September, there have been 14,506 deaths reported to VAERS for COVID-19 vaccines, compared to 8,673 for the preceding 30 years for all other vaccines. That is already more than 50 times the annual average — and we still have four months left to go until the end of the year.

It is hard to imagine how anyone can look at these numbers and not be at least a little bit concerned. Yet many people are dismissive, saying the unprecedented number of reports is due to the unprecedented number of vaccinations being administered.

I crunched the numbers, and even after taking into account the total number of vaccinations, the number of reports for COVID vaccines still towers over previous years.


the number of deaths reported per million vaccine doses from 2010-2020 and for COVID-19 vaccines. That’s nearly 40 deaths reported per million COVID vaccines versus an average of 1.6 for all other vaccines from the previous 10 years.


The first thing to notice is that for every type of adverse event for every age group, there were more reports per million doses of COVID-19 vaccines than for flu vaccines. If you look at the bottom row for all age groups (12 and older), you see that for every million vaccine doses administered, there were 19 times more reports to VAERS for COVID-19 vaccines than for flu vaccines, 28 times more serious events, 91 times more deaths, 3 times more reports of Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS), 276 times more reports of coagulopathy; 126 times as many reports of myocardial infarction; and 136 times more reports of myopericarditis.

Also notable is the variation across age groups. For example, death and coagulopathy were more preponderant for older age groups, whereas GBS and myopericarditis were more frequent for younger age groups.

The ratios for myopericarditis put the full significance of these results into perspective, since it is an officially recognized side effect of COVID-19 vaccines, especially among men under age 50. 


While the COVID-to-flu ratio for myopericarditis among 12- to 17-year-olds in Table 1 is in a league of its own at 1251-to-1, the ratio for the 18- to 49-year-olds is 81-to-1, which is well within the range of many of the other ratios in the table — and even smaller than many of them.

Because the CDC has acknowledged that mRNA COVID-19 vaccines can cause myocarditis in this age group, a reporting ratio of at least 81 is like an alarm bell going off to warn us of a potential safety problem. And the much larger ratios for coagulopathy and myocardial infarctions are like a 4-alarm fire.

So why does the CDC seem to be unconcerned about these safety signals? Is it possible they haven’t picked up on them?


Postscript: Since completing this article, I and others submitted comments to the meeting of FDA’s Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) on Sept. 17, which voted 16 to 2 to not approve a booster dose for people under 65 years old, citing a lack of sufficient safety and efficacy data. However the FDA overruled its advisory committee, as did the CDC after its vaccine safety committee recommended against authorizing a third Pfizer dose for anyone other than people 65 and older, long-term care facility residents and certain people with underlying conditions.

DJ In a crisis you may take more risks. But both Vietnam HCW-ers still getting Delta after AZ-O vaccines, and the above story puts major questionmarks on the vaccine-strategy. When you also look at the present-still high-numbers (cases, hospitalcases, deaths) compared to pre-vaccination statistics we HAVE to review vaccination strategy !!!

Most likely some groups do see more risks for complcations after vaccinations !!!

The least one should expect is being honest with the risks...but questions keep being "bulldozered over"...Bad policies giving fuel to questions/hesitancy ! The above story seems to come from; The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of Children's Health Defense.
Republishing Guidelines

© 9/29/21 Children’s Health Defense, Inc. This work is reproduced and distributed with the permission of Children’s Health Defense, Inc. Want to learn more from Children’s Health Defense? Sign up for free news and updates from Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and the Children’s Health Defense. Your donation will help to support us in our efforts.

DJ Some of the oppositiongroups seem to be non-science, denialism...also not helping !

[url][/url] or ; There has been a lot of focus on COVID-19 vaccine inequalities between high-income and low- and middle-income countries. For instance, it is estimated that up to 70% of all vaccines to be produced in 2021 were pre-booked by a handful of countries.

This has caused severe bottlenecks in vaccine supply to low- and middle-income countries, leading to huge differences in vaccination rates. On average, out of 100 people in a high-income country, 61 have received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine. In the 29 low-income countries, only 3 out of 100 people have received one dose of the vaccine. ...

Vaccines & Vaccinations in Africa

Select a country from the list below to see details

DJ If most of severe/deathly cases-also in a lot of poor countries-are in older age groups, people with certain health conditions it may be wise to see wich groups in countries we keep poor may benefit most from vaccines. Often testing is also hardly sequencing...we need to improve that as well ! 

Could we not get a realistic global vaccination plan-including risk factors for vaccinations-to increase vaccine production and get vaccines there where they can help to control the crisis ? 

If we are going for "booster vaccines" to get out of this pandemic we may need new, better boosters...

[url][/url] or ; Findings: When animals were treated with a combination of suboptimal doses of Molnupiravir and Favipiravir at the time of infection, a marked combined potency at endpoint is observed. 

Infectious virus titers in the lungs of animals treated with the combination are reduced by ∼5 log10 and infectious virus are no longer detected in the lungs of >60% of treated animals. 

When start of treatment was delayed with one day a reduction of titers in the lungs of 2.4 log10 was achieved. 

Moreover, treatment of infected animals nearly completely prevented transmission to co-housed untreated sentinels. 

Both drugs result in an increased mutation frequency of the remaining viral RNA recovered from the lungs of treated animals. 

In the combo-treated hamsters, an increased frequency of C-to-T mutations in the viral RNA is observed as compared to the single treatment groups which may explain the pronounced antiviral potency of the combination.

Interpretation: Our findings may lay the basis for the design of clinical studies to test the efficacy of the combination of Molnupiravir/Favipiravir in the treatment of COVID-19.

DJ Merck-Molupiravir also mentioned on top of todays scenario's...Maybe a next step in dealing with this ongoing pandemic may not be in (more/booster) vaccines but better treatment ? 

-No new video from Dr.John Campbell...(I hope he is well !) ZOE [url][/url] or on UK numbers; 

UK cases up, hospital cases going down...

UK R0 now at 1.1

25% of positive testing cases in vaccinated (DJ-most vaccinated that do get infected do not get symptoms, or only mild do not get tested...)

Most new cases are 0-19 y/o due to school reopenings, other age groups under 50 also going up...Part of them will be the parents of those children. A repeat of last year...

With universities restarting we may see an increase in 18-21 y/o age groups

If you do get cold-like symptoms get tested !

DJ-Weatherwise some storms may be on their way to the UK/Ireland...Autumn/fall has started ! Also people going to work with (often overcrowded) public transport will not help...

A legal right to work/study from home with conservative pseudo liberals does not mix...(BoJo "piling up bodies"...)

-Conclusions; DJ If you live in a country/area where cases now are limited; enjoy the moment ! Due to a-proberbly global-lack of testing and sequencing in vaccinated we may soon seen cases going up again...

The southern part of the globe is moving into spring, towards summer...this will decrease spread somewhat-but new variants may undo that effect high speed. "Delta" did allready show that ! "Warm weather countries" Brazil, India, Pakistan, Iran, Egypt, Thailand all indicate "summer" does not stop this pandemic !

The northern part of the globe may be moving into winter-weather (with some parts of the US still seeing very high temperatures for now-some of those area's could be in winter next week...).

Yesterday I did put a link to an instruction film from 1943 telling US military what NOT to do...We do not pick the time we live in...I am very glad I did not have to see the horrors of a major war in my country...I was very lucky so far !

This pandemic is NOT over ! The duration in itself is a burden for all of us ! Some of us are in better positions then others...healthwise, housing, income, insurance..."count your blessings" !

-Music; A 800 year old way of (Irish) singing ;Sean Nós...[url][/url] or ; To many listeners, sean-nós singing sounds "foreign" or more specifically Arabic.[5][6] Similarities can also be heard with the sacred music of the Orthodox Churches of Ethiopia and Eritrea. Sean-nós singers have noticed similarities with their style and the styles of Bedouin music and Spanish cante jondo.[7]

The ethnomusicologist Joan Rimmer suggested that the music of the Arab worldSouthern Europe and Ireland are all linked.[7] The famous folklorist Alan Lomax said:

[I] have long considered Ireland to be part of the Old Southern Mediterranean-Middle Eastern family of style that I call bardic – highly ornamentedfree rhythmed, solo, or solo and string accompanied singing that support sophisticated and elaborate forms.[7]

The writer Máirtín Ó Cadhain compared the singing style and dark physical appearance of Seosamh Ó hÉanaí to that of the Gitanos of Granada.[7] The "black Irish" appearance is often attributed to Spanish Armada shipwrecks[8] or ancient trade routes with Berbers.[9] Film-maker Bob Quinn, in his Atlantean series of films, suggests a North African cultural connection, explaining the long physical distances between the cultures with the seafaring nature of the Connemara people.[7] The musical connection has been tenuously connected to the fact that the people of Connacht have a significant amount of ancient Berber or Tuareg DNA.

DJ A "sort of singing"may have been used for thousends of years to keep some stories alive...

[url][/url] or 

Stay safe !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group

Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 60152
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 30 2021 at 10:44pm


October 1...last three months, 92 days of 2021...

-Numbers [url][/url] or global cases -9%, global deaths -8%....To try to be somewhat realistic on the numbers;

cases going down because a lot of spread (now 80% ?) is without, or only mild, symptoms...

deaths going down because a lot of the most vulnarable may have allready died....

So-NO-it is not a nice picture ! Vaccines do NOT do the miracle they were expected to do by some...

Looking at real numbers; last week did see 3,45 million new cases, this week 3,15 million cases...Last week did see 56,538 deaths, this week it dropped to 52,138 deaths being (under) reported worldwide...

We can NOT reopen because of vaccine protection ! Delta R0 of between 5 and 8 needed BOTH vaccines AND restrictions/NPI.  The "good" statistics are hiding the asymptomatic spread. And as long it remains asymptomatic in most cases it may not be problematic...

Point is immunity (both natural and vaccine) may not be good enough long enough to deal with Delta and other variants on the longer term bringing more severe illness...Mutations in these variants may see a higher viral load-confronted with less protection-with winter on its way-I am not very hopefull. 

Of course I am NOT an expert, it is just my opinion...

There are several area's/countries where cases do increase..I did put up a list yesterday I will not repeat such a list...but it should remind us this pandemic is far from over !

And also-again-vaccines did buy us time but we did not use that time very well. The price for buying time may be a virus creating a higher viral load. Resulting in an increase of more severe cases. With healthcare being in crisis for over a year this will mean more deaths...

-Flutrackers latests posts;

[url][/url] or ; Rural Americans are currently twice as likely to die from COVID-19 infections compared with their urban peers, according to Kaiser Health News and data from the Rural Policy Research Institute (RPRI) at the University of Iowa.
Since March 2020, 1 in 434 rural Americans have died from COVID-19, compared with roughly 1 in 513 urban Americans. 

And unlike deaths in urban areas, the vaccine rollout has not slowed COVID-19 fatalities in rural parts of the country due to low uptake. 

Short-staffed hospitals and limited access to healthcare are also contributing factors, the researchers say.
Current 7-day average fatality rates are twice as high in rural regions, at more than 0.8 deaths per 100,000 population, compared with 0.4 per 100,000 in urban areas, according to RPRI data.
Virus incidence rates in September were roughly 54% higher in rural areas than elsewhere, and in 39 states, rural counties had higher rates of COVID than urban counties.
In related news, health officials in Idaho, a predominately rural state with some of the lowest vaccination rates in the country, said more kids and babies are being hospitalized with COVID-related complications. 

As of this week, 1,700 new COVID-19 cases were reported in children in Idaho, according to the Associated Press.

DJ Since most people live in cities, urban area's healthcare may be better, easier to get, maybe at least part of urban population also has had better education, more chances to get tested...Still most serious cases, deaths will be in cities due to the high number of people living there, faster spread of the virus, peak of cases resulting to healthcare running out of capacity for a short time. Of course this may be the global picture...Also from the link;

Global headlines

  • The risk of a COVID surge in Europe over the next 2 months is very high, due to high virus circulation from the Delta (B1617.2) variant and breakthrough cases in vulnerable people, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) said in its latest risk assessment It also predicted greater proportions of cases in children. So far, only 61% of the European region's population are fully vaccinated, and levels vary widely by country. Health officials urged countries to step up their vaccination efforts and take other COVID-19 measures, depending on the local epidemiologic situation.
  • In Australia today, Victoria state reported 1,438 new cases—a 50% jump—partly fueled by people breaking distancing rules to gather to watch the country's football final, according to Reuters. Half the state's population 16 or over have received a vaccine dose, a level below the country average of 53%.
  • Vietnam's main COVID-19 hot spot Ho Chi Minh City began loosening restrictions today after 4 months of mitigation measures. Illness levels have declined, and the country hopes to restart the economy and learn to balance case prevention and regular activities.

[url][/url] or ; Critically ill COVID-19 patients who received extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) at the end of 2020 had a higher mortality rate than those who received it in the first half of the year, according to a study published yesterday in The Lancet.- "ECMO cannot be blamed for the increased mortality; it is merely a tool and clinicians still need to understand when to use it for the greatest benefit," Vuylsteke concludes.


Less than 0.05% of Scottish people at least partially vaccinated against COVID-19 were hospitalized or died from the virus, according to a large, population-based study looking at data from Dec 8, 2020, to Apr 18, 2021.- Higher risk was associated with being 80 years or older versus being 18 to 64 (adjusted risk ratio [aRR], 4.75), having five or more comorbidities (aRR, 4.24), being hospitalized in the previous 4 weeks (aRR, 3.00), or being employed in a high-risk occupation (aRR, 2.14). Those who were residents in a care home (aRR, 1.63), socioeconomically deprived (most deprived quintile vs least, aRR, 1.57), male (aRR, 1.27), or an ex-smoker versus a non-smoker (aRR, 1.18) also had higher risks.

On the other hand, the researchers note, having COVID-19 prior to vaccination was protective (aRR, 0.40). Those who had a longer interval between the two doses also appeared to have a lower risk (the United Kingdom extended the vaccine dose intervals to 8- to 12-weeks to maximize supply).
"Restricting booster doses to populations at the highest risk for severe disease will allow maximisation of booster dose benefits, with a minimised effect on global vaccine distribution," write Eyal Lehsem, MD, and others in a related commentary.


A wearable biosensor can predict when a person is infected with common viruses, including a cold or influenza, even before the person experiences symptoms, according to a study yesterday in JAMA Network Open.
The challenge study collected data from of 31 participants inoculated with H1N1 flu and 18 participants inoculated with rhinovirus. A wearable device, called the E4 wristband made by Empatica, Inc, measured heart rate, skin temperature, electrodermal activity, and movement. It accurately picked up 92% of the H1N1 infections and 88% of the rhinovirus infections.
The sensors were able to detect infection 24 hours before symptom onset 90% of the time for H1N1 and 89% of the time for rhinovirus.


The H5N6 avian flu virus sickened two more people in China, one fatally, part of the country's steady uptick in cases this year, Hong Kong's Centre for Health Protection (CHP) said today.

DJ High tech can be a great help but still can not prevent all of the problems. It also raises other questions; do we want "smart camera's surveilance" in public spaces ? How to organize public healthcare ? Who decides on what ? Is ECMO "privatizable" best care for a rich elite ? How can we stop a billionaire from buying up technology and experts-should we stop that ? Sewage-control on a household level can detect a lot of healthissues in a very early stage. But if you combine that with DNA-diagnostics and for profit healthinsurance you may end up destroying society...

[url][/url] or ; A nosocomial outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant infected 42 patients, staff and family members; 39 were fully vaccinated. The attack rate was 10.6% (16/151) among exposed staff and reached 23.7% (23/97) among exposed patients in a highly vaccinated population, 16–26 weeks after vaccination (median: 25 weeks). All cases were linked and traced to one patient. Several transmissions occurred between individuals wearing face masks. Fourteen of 23 patients became severely sick or died, raising a question about possible waning immunity.

full article

DJ Vaccines have a peak in protection lasting a few months at best...offering "good" protection against severe disease. AstraZeneca and J&J/Janssen maybe 60%+, Pfizer and Moderna seem to do better...90%? but also age matters...The older the person the less immunity protection after vaccination. The immunity system effectivity is age related.  

Yesterday I did put a link to a Vietnam/AstraZeneca HCW-ers outbreak...Delta(+?) and other variants may be getting more infectious-higher viral load-while most people may see less protection from vaccines or natural immunity...[url][/url] or while vaccine breakthroughs happen - they are more rare with Moderna or Pfizer than with J&J. That’s why J&J folks need a 2nd shot. As does natural infection folks - they likely need at least 1 shot according to many vaccine experts.

see also from same twitter account ; JUST ONE DAY AFTER OPENING—Sobering—The day after Disney’s Broadway spectacular Aladdin reopened, the show was canceled when several breakthrough cases of #COVID19 were detected among its unmasked cast members after performing. We need indoor disinfection.

[url][/url] or ; Routine genomic surveillance on samples from COVID-19 patients collected in Poland during summer 2021 revealed the emergence of a SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant with a large 872 nt deletion. This change, confirmed by Sanger and deep sequencing, causes complete loss of ORF7a, ORF7b, and ORF8 genes. The index case carrying the deletion is unknown. The standard pipeline for sequencing may mask this deletion with a long stretch of N’s. Effects of this deletion on phenotype or immune evasion needs further study.

full article

DJ Poland, most of eastern Europe, has been seeing an increase of cases with often very limited vaccine/natural immunity. High number of cases=high number of mutations=increase risk for variants...

I can think of three possible (all bad) scenario's;

1-Delta will stay dominant most of this pandemic-Delta+ (and Delta++, +++, ++++) will keep spreading developing further towards immune resitance

2-Even with Delta R0 of between 5 and 8 another variant will show up with a R0 10+ overtaking Delta...worsening most likely this pandemic...

3-(An)other(s) SARS-variant(s) show up...there are many COrona VIral Diseases (COVID) in animals-lots of coronavirusses out there...

We may even see a mix of these three...Delta getting worse, still room for another variant, then SARS-3 (4, 5) shows up...

Just like in climate collapse "we seem to have to learn it the hard way"...

[url][/url] or vaccine effectiveness by product (two doses Comirnaty, Spikevax or Vaxzevria and one of Janssen), against infection ranged from 50% (95% CI: 42 to 57) for Janssen to 86% (70 to 93) for Vaxzevria-Comirnaty combination; among ≥ 60 year-olds, from 17% (−26 to 45) for Janssen to 68% (48 to 80) for Spikevax; and against hospitalisation from 74% (43 to 88) for Janssen to > 90% for other products. Two doses of vaccine were highly effective against hospitalisation, but suboptimal for infection control.

full article

DJ "Suboptimal" means not doing enough to stop the spread...resulting in mutations, worse variants (inside Delta most). 

[url][/url] or[Vienna, September 28, 2021] In a crisis, women make significantly longer phone calls and adhere more closely to governmental measures than men; men are less likely to have their mobility restricted and return to normal more quickly than women. Researchers at the Complexity Science Hub Vienna (CSH) found cliché-sounding behavioral patterns like these in data from the first Corona lockdown in spring 2020...

DJ People are stupid, (some) men are more stupid then women ????

[url][/url] or ; Regeneron's combination of two monoclonal antibodies lowered the risk of COVID-19–associated hospitalization and death from any cause by 71% and resolved symptoms and reduced SARS-CoV-2 viral load faster than a placebo, a phase 3 clinical trial finds.
In the study, published yesterday in the New England Journal of Medicine, a team led by Regeneron researchers randomly assigned 2,696 adult COVID-19 outpatients at high risk for severe illness to receive either intravenous REGEN-COV or a placebo from Sep 24, 2020, to Jan 17, 2021.
REGEN-COV is a 1:1 combination of the monoclonal antibodies casirivimab and imdevimab.


Symptoms in the REGEN-COV group resolved a median of 4 days faster than in the placebo group, regardless of dose (10 vs 14 days). Both doses of REGEN-COV also lowered viral load faster than placebo.

DJ Better treatments may limit pressure on healthcare-still STOP THE SPREAD ! On the longer term both vaccines and treatments may not be able to undo the damage of CoViD's spreading...The less (asymptomatic) cases the lower the spread and risk of further mutations. This virus is a moving, dynamic, target. Strategies that once worked may not be enough further down the road !

Instead of vaccines will we soon see wide spread medication being forced upon us "to keep the economy going" ? 

[url][/url] or’s Covid-19 cases surged to record levels on Thursday with officials blaming illegal home gatherings to watch a key sporting event for the spike.
Officials admitted Thursday’s numbers, a 50% jump to Wednesday’s 950 cases, is a “major setback” in managing the flare-up, as they race to vaccinate the state’s 5.5 million adult population.
Half of the state’s population above 16 have received their first dose, below the national average of 53%.

DJ Australia cases up 10%; 11,777 last week-12,944 this week. Deaths +40%, last week 68, this week 95. Australia population 25,86 million-cases per million this week 500, deaths per million this week 4. 

New Zealand cases +1% from 136 to 138 this week-0 deaths...population of NZ=5 million, this week did see 28 cases per million in NZ (AU had 500 p/m !). 

[url][/url] or (google translated) ; In August 2019, a case of rabies probably transmitted by a bat caused the death of a patient in Nouvelle-Aquitaine. This exceptional case was confirmed by the National Reference Center (CNR) for rabies at the Institut Pasteur in 2020, then in a study published in May 2021 in the journal Clinical infectious diseases . This is the first time that a patient has been infected with the EBLV-1 lyssavirus in mainland France, and it is the first case of rabies contracted in mainland France since 1924! The cases of transmission by a bat in humans remain exceptional as it is only the fourth confirmed occurrence in Europe.

DJ-With cities getting larger bats and humans may mix more-increasing the risks for bats spreading diseases in humans...

[url][/url] or ; Yale Health sees “unprecedented” number of visits and calls this fall
As an unidentified virus circulates among the student population, students are running into issues with missing classes with no uniform absence policy in place.
Isabelle Qian & Isaac Yu 11:24 pm, Sep 29, 2021
Staff Reporters

Dubbed the “Yale Plague,” a non-COVID-19 sickness has spread throughout the student body. Yalies infected with the illness have struggled to make up content for missed classes.

A large number of students have reported experiencing flu symptoms in recent weeks — with triage calls to Yale Student Health this month up 40 percent from Sept. 2019, according to Chief of Student Health Christine Chen. Per the University’s COVID-19 guidelines, students with flu-like symptoms are advised to stay in their room and self-isolate until they receive a negative COVID-19 test. When students fall ill, they are therefore forced to miss class for at least a day, if not more.

“We are experiencing an unprecedented number of visits, calls, and communications via [MyChart] this fall,” Chen wrote in an email to the News. “Though we continue to see COVID-19 cases, the virus that has been circulating among students appears to be something else.”


Chen suggested that part of the increase in demand for clinic services can be attributed to an increased student population for this academic year. Still, she asked students to protect themselves from the circulating sickness with now-familiar pandemic precautions, like mask-wearing and social distancing. She also urged all students to sign up for mandatory flu vaccines as soon as possible, calling the approaching influenza season a “great concern.”

DJ If the students test negative for CoVid AND for flu, lots of other virusses I (as a non-expert) would believe some Delta-variants (?) may escape testing ? Time will tell by the symptoms if students "just" get a severe cold, more of a flu, or see a pattern of symptoms that look like more severe CoVid...or maybe something new ? 

[url][/url] or ; The pandemic has introduced a lot of people to the idea of rapid antigen tests, which can quickly and conveniently reveal the presence of an infection. But in many parts of the world, rapid tests are a central feature of health care. If you don't have easy access to a testing lab infrastructure—and many in the developing world don't—rapid tests can provide a quick way of screening for common problems. In a number of countries, rapid test results are what determine whether people are given anti-malaria treatments or not.

But that may be causing a unique problem. A new paper suggests that the malarial parasite may be evolving so that it can't be recognized by the most commonly used rapid tests...

DJ Also testing is-never-100%. We live in an imperfect world !

[url][/url] or ; Ethnic inequalities in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) hospitalizations and mortality have been widely reported but there is scant understanding of how they are embodied. 

The UK Biobank prospective cohort study comprises around half a million people who were aged 40-69 years at study induction between 2006 and 2010 when information on ethnic background and potential explanatory factors was captured.

 Study members were prospectively linked to a national mortality registry. 

In an analytical sample of 448,664 individuals (248,820 women), 705 deaths were ascribed to COVID-19 between 5th March, 2020 and 24th January, 2021. In age- and sex-adjusted analyses, relative to White participants, Black study members experienced around five times the risk of COVID-19 mortality (odds ratio; 95% confidence interval: 4.81; 3.28, 7.05), while there was a doubling in the South Asian group (2.05; 1.30, 3.25). 

Controlling for baseline comorbidities, social factors (including socioeconomic circumstances), and lifestyle indices attenuated this risk differential by 34% in Black study members (2.84; 1.91, 4.23) and 37% in South Asian individuals (1.57; 0.97, 2.55). 

The residual risk of COVID-19 deaths in ethnic minority groups may be ascribed to a range of unmeasured characteristics and requires further exploration.

DJ A combination of factors most likely can give some explanations; Higher risk jobs-both for catching a disease as to what the job does to the body. More risks in means of (public) transport. Worse housing conditions. Less education-so not recognizing some risks. More smoking/alcohol/drugs...Less access to good healthcare. 

We know these factors-we know they in part are the outcome of income inequality. By keeping the rich rich, even getting richer, making the poor even more poor we are taking away years of life expectincy for the poor. Bad politics...

-Good to see Dr. John Campbell is back ! "Out of town for a few days" [url][/url] or ; "Aspiration, more information"...;

"It is not necessary to draw back on the syringe plunger before injecting a vaccine.14 However, if you have done this and a flash of blood appears in the needle hub, withdraw the needle and select a new site for injection."

So the technique I was taught decades ago and which you have taught since has been quietly retired. I'll check the science behind this curious decision. Keep up the good work. 

Mom This doesn’t explain why it’s mostly only happening to adolescent and young males. Matter of fact, that narrow demographic almost excludes your reasoning here unless you’re saying only males are getting accidental IV vaccines. 

Aspiration before injection of vaccines or toxoids (i.e., pulling back on the syringe plunger after needle insertion but before injection) is not necessary because no large blood vessels are present at the recommended injection sites, and a process that includes aspiration might be more painful for infants 

Vaccines should not be given intravenously.  

Nurses in UK don't aspirate inspite of requests which is scary.. Young adults have more chance of myocardits ,they have turgid blood vessels 

Abnormal radial artery is known. Pulse is felt on lateral side and not at usual site. So even inside body abnormaly positioned blood vessels or extra vessels are possible. 

Although rare it can be fatal as well.  

I inject myself with anabolic steroids and have done for the past 20 years, my preferred injection site is the deltoids, its a deep intramuscular injection, I aspirate and on many occasions I have drawn blood, I would say around 1 out of 30.

Hi John, when I get my booster, can I ask who ever is administering it to aspirate, before they give it??? 

Jerome (cancer and reconstructive surgeon) I have never understood why present day training seems to advise against aspiration prior to intramuscular injection in both medical and nursing courses. 

DJ Not aspirating-checking if they hit a bloodvessel-is the new training guideline in many places. Proberbly "saving time" and less pain, stress, may be the reasons for it-the price may be more risks for complications...Most likely NOT only in younger males but-less clear-in other groups as well...

-Music; Memory-Cats [url][/url] or "even calming down trump"....[url][/url] or 

work in progres

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
KiwiMum View Drop Down

Joined: May 29 2013
Status: Offline
Points: 23130
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 30 2021 at 11:11pm

On the same page of a UK newspaper this morning were two articles next to each other. The first said Covid numbers had gone up. The second said Covid numbers had fallen. It's madness. 

I heard today about the son of a friend of mine in Europe who two weeks ago went on a three hour car ride with 3 other students. Unbeknowingly, one of them had Covid. The other two students have since tested positive to it, but the son is still returning a negative result. He doesn't think he has had it before nor has he been vaccinated. Go figure! Perhaps some people, for whatever reason, have a natural immunity to it. Fyi they kept the car windows closed for the whole ride.

"Once you've decided that something's absolutely true, you've closed your mind on it, and a closed mind doesn't go anywhere. Question everything. That's what education's all about." ~ David Eddings
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group

Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 60152
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 01 2021 at 9:32pm

KiwiMum-The UK has several (informal in part; press) groups keeping numbers, the health ministery, Office of National Statistics...Then there isalso ZOE-tracker app in use by a few million people in the UK putting in info on symptoms, (self)testing some early hints...

On top of that you have "model-makers"; most likely with october on the calander, autumn/fall (in Dutch "herfst", German "herbst" related to "harvest" in English...) will see a further increase of cases. 

Why some people do NOT get a disease/infection sometimes remain a mystery. There was a story on prostitutes in Kenya somehow not catching HIV/AIDS...


A lot of countries now tend to act like the pandemic is over-often with still high numbers comparing them to earlier "lows" (summer 2020 most often). I would love to believe it is over...However;

.We have seen this pandemic with its waves for over 20 from a precaution point of view most likely there will be some sort of a next wave-also most "experts" (virologists, epidemiologists, some "maths"/statistics-science).

.Lots of other countries still have high numbers of new cases. (EdwinSM in latest news keep deaths per million per month statistics...those numbers still are bad. Last month both US and Russia did see over 150 dpm increase !)

.We also by now know more on the Corona-virus, its link to Laos-bats and the chances of new kinds of SARS from there...

Wishfull thinking is NOT science ! We may still have the worst to come-vaccines do NOT do the miracle job of ending this pandemic. However they do a great job-at limited risk (partly related to how vaccinations are done- no aspiration) in keeping numbers down. 

-The numbers [url][/url] or ;

The US and the UK still show themselves to be "worldleaders"in this pandemic; US reporting 120,876 cases, UK 35,577 new cases out of an october 1 total of global 472,256 cases being reported...about 1-in-3 global cases are from the US/UK ! Reported deaths worldwide was 7,369-US had 1,821 UK had 127...(about 1 in 3,5 of the deaths...). 

When I look at test per million of people the UK ends up at #11, US at #32...

In the US the relatively low number of vaccinations (most in poor, black/hispanic and proberbly orthodox religious groups..."Republicans" if I am correct-may still often accept vaccination, maybe somewhat less then "Democrats" but making vaccines "political" is crazy !).

In the UK a lot of cases are related to schools-children getting infected, spreading the virus most to their parents. Same mix of people not being vaccinated; poor, people "of colour", orthodox religious groups and a very limited group of ant-vaccines...

On the other hand lots of countries see over 90% of 12 y/o+ willing to accept a vaccine. Availability is still a major problem for countries we keep poor. Not providing them with vaccines is "just" another crime...Both "the West" and "the East" (RIC=Russia-Iran-China mainly) are not doing enough...

Energy prices going record-high do not help in the logistics of getting vaccines, PPE, oxygen etc. at the right places in time...

Global trends also may point in the wrong direction; cases -8%, deaths -9% with 73 countries reporting increase of cases-lots of other countries still in very high numbers. Yes-numbers do go down but it matters if you see 10,000 cases per million of population or "just" 100...Earlier global lows did see around 400,000 cases per day in february, 300,000 in june...we are still very close to 500,000 cases per day as a "low"...

Healthcare still doing a very good job is almost a miracle ! Politics rather spent money on wars, getting rich people even more rich then on public interests...and a lot of us keep voting for these kind of "leaders"...

We proberbly will see the next wave this month ! Israel may be interesting to follow-booster vaccines did show cases going down...but waning immunity was just one of the problems. A lack of restrictions, to many groups even breaking those limited restrictions, may undo the "booster-effect". 

There have allready been several outbreaks reported in vaccinated groups (Vietnam hospital, Munster-Germany disco, US...). Vaccine passports create a false sense of security !

Here in NL we switched from "keeping social distance" to "vaccine passports" last week. We do have a high number of vaccinated people but NOT spread equal. Cases -5%, deaths -28% in NL is slowly moving towards an increase of cases/UK scenario...

Just like in the US and UK the same groups did see lower vaccinations. I have to look at the exact numbers I believe NL over 80% vaccinated by now but Amsterdam hardly makes it to 45%...The most vulnarables did get vaccinated over 6 months ago...

In NL traffic jams are over 2019/prepandemic levels; public transport is at 70-85% of 2019 level...

-Flutrackers latest posts;

[url][/url] or ; Question What are the long-term health outcomes associated with COVID-19 infection 1 year after hospital discharge?

Findings In this cohort study of 2433 patients who had been hospitalized with COVID-19, the most common symptoms at 1 year after discharge were fatigue, sweating, chest tightness, anxiety, and myalgia. Patients with severe disease had more postinfection symptoms and higher chronic obstructive pulmonary disease assessment test scores.

Meaning This study reported prolonged symptoms of COVID-19 and found that severe disease during hospitalization was a risk factor for more symptoms and higher chronic obstructive pulmonary disease assessment test scores.

DJ; Some claim "it would be wise to get natural infection" often they mean OTHERS should get "natural immunity" (school children or vaccinated people getting natural boosters...) I do like to respect peoples opinion, keep it polite....So "NO !!! I do not think it is a good idea ! ¨"A bit less polite would be to tell those people to watch the video's of hospitals full of patients/ICU overcrowded...most of them will die...You should avoid such risks the best you can !

So YES I would welcome much more restrictions ! YES I think "living with the virus"is a stupid idea promoted by people that do not care !

[url][/url] or ; Abstract

Distinct SARS-CoV-2 lineages, discovered through various genomic surveillance initiatives, have emerged during the pandemic following unprecedented reductions in worldwide human mobility. 

We here describe a SARS-CoV-2 lineage - designated B.1.620 - discovered in Lithuania and carrying many mutations and deletions in the spike protein shared with widespread variants of concern (VOCs), including E484K, S477N and deletions HV69Δ, Y144Δ, and LLA241/243Δ. 

As well as documenting the suite of mutations this lineage carries, we also describe its potential to be resistant to neutralising antibodies, accompanying travel histories for a subset of European cases, evidence of local B.1.620 transmission in Europe with a focus on Lithuania, and significance of its prevalence in Central Africa owing to recent genome sequencing efforts there. 

We make a case for its likely Central African origin using advanced phylogeographic inference methodologies incorporating recorded travel histories of infected travellers.

Yesterday a Polish "Delta variant"  (B.1.617)was mentioned, now this B.1.620 showing up in the Baltics. since march..[url][/url] or ; Discovered in Lithuania in March 2021[184] also known as the 'Lithuanian strain'. It was found in Central Africa as well as North America.[185] Apart from Lithuania, other European countries including France and Belgium have also found presence of this variant.[184] This lineage has 23 mutations and deletions compared to the reference strain, some of which are unique mutations. The lineage contains an E484K mutation.[185][186] D614G, a mutation present in most circulating strain, is also found in this variant.[187] Other notable mutations include P681H and S477N.[185]

DJ-I hate this !!!! B.1.620 was first detected in november last year....If this "Central African/Lithuanian" variant would show to be increasing against Delta-dominance "that is bad news"...Not (yet) in [url][/url] or ...

[url][/url] or investigational antiviral pill reduced the chances that patients newly diagnosed with Covid-19 would be hospitalized by about 50%, a finding that could give doctors a desperately needed new way to treat the sick, the drug maker Merck announced Friday.

A five-day course of molnupiravir, developed by Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, reduced both hospitalization and death compared to a placebo. In the placebo group, 53 patients, or 14.1%, were hospitalized or died. For those who received the drug, 28, or 7.3%, were hospitalized or died.

A simple oral medication to help treat Covid-19 has been an elusive goal since the start of the pandemic. Other drugs, including Gilead’s remdesivir, have also been shown to reduce hospitalizations if given early in the course of disease, but must be given intravenously.

DJ We may see better medication (possibly causing less need for vaccinations) to limit infections...It is far easier to get everyone "a pill" then to get everyone vaccinated...You have anti-malaria medication (chloroquine...other discussion). 

[url][/url] or pair of new studies highlights the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on adults, one showing the fallout of unstable housing on Americans' mental and physical health and the other describing how UK residents who were depressed or anxious before the pandemic experienced more disruptions to their jobs and access to healthcare after it began.

DJ The duration of this pandemic is becoming a growing factor. How to "trust leaders" that do not "lead us out of this crisis" ? 

[url][/url] or 7-day average of new COVID-19 cases dropped in the United States by 15% this week, to 106,400 cases per day, according to Rochelle Walensky, MD, MPH, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
Walensky, during a White House press briefing, said hospitalizations also dropped to 8,300 per day (also a 15% decrease), and deaths remained at 1,476 per day, on average. Yesterday, according to the Johns Hopkins University tracker, the country confirmed 110,060 cases, including 2,718 deaths.
"Deaths remain substantially higher in states with low vaccination coverage," Walensky said, urging the 70 million Americans who have yet to get vaccinated against the novel coronavirus to do it as soon as possible.
The CDC COVID Data Tracker shows that 55.6% of Americans are fully vaccinated against COVID-19, 64.6% have received at least one dose of vaccine, and 2.2% of fully vaccinated Americans have received a booster dose.

Vaccine uptake slows

American officials have long said their goal was to vaccinate the country out of the pandemic, but vaccine uptake has slowed significantly in recent weeks.
USA Today analysis of CDC data shows that Americans are getting vaccinated at the lowest rate yet this year. The United States is giving first-dose vaccinations to fewer than 1.5 million people each week, down from nearly 14 million in mid-April.
And despite being authorized for use in children ages 12 and up, only 48% of parents of children ages 12 to 17 say their child has received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine, while 34% of parents of children ages 5 to 11 say they will vaccinate their child right away once a vaccine is authorized for that age group. Those responses come from the latest survey from the Kaiser Family Foundation.

DJ Looking at [url][/url] or the US "worst wave" was last winter; Over 100,000 cases per day from early november till mid february...On average US cases have been 100,000+ since early august. So Yes cases are coming down but still remain very high ! With winter on its way the outlook is NOT good ![/url] or ; China is asking city governments to create specialized quarantine facilities that can house thousands of overseas arrivals, as the country continues to take a zero-tolerance approach to keeping out Covid-19.

Local authorities have until the end of October to convert or build the hubs, National Health Commission official Cui Gang told a briefing this week, with the requirement for at least 20 rooms for every 10,000 residents. The goal is to prevent the country’s quarantine facilities from becoming “scattered” and “disorganized,” Cui said.

Cities will also need to provide a list of backup accommodation locations to ensure the effectiveness of their quarantine systems, Cui said...

DJ Australia stopped Australians from returning home, China is not closing its doors but improving protection. 

[url][/url] or ; Two JAMA Network Open studies yesterday that looked at COVID-19 vaccine acceptance in minority groups and opinions around less-preferred vaccines provide clues for how officials might better encourage immunization.
The first study, involving 13 focus groups, reaffirmed a lack of communication and trust among racially and ethnically diverse communities in the United States.
The second study examined the effect of emphasizing different data around the Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca/Oxford COVID-19 vaccines: People were more interested in uptake when they were presented with the vaccines' effectiveness against death versus their effectiveness against symptomatic infection.

The virtual focus groups involved 70 Los Angeles residents from Nov 16, 2020, to Jan 28, 2021. (Pfizer/BioNTech, the first emergency-use approved vaccine in the United States, received its emergency-use authorization in mid-December 2020.)
Most participants (71.4%) were female, and none were White (24.3% Black, 24.3% American Indian, 21.4% Latino, 15.7% Filipino, and 14.3% Pacific Islander). About 55.7% lived in a zip code area with high poverty, and 48.6% were essential workers.
Overall, 52.9% said they were likely to be vaccinated against COVID-19 when an option became available, and 77.1% said it was important for all people in the community to receive a COVID-19 vaccine. However, themes of medical mistrust, concern about inequitable access or differential treatment, fears around politicization or pharmaceutical influence, and uncertainty around COVID-19 vaccine information, cost, and scheduling contributed to vaccine hesitance.
For instance, participants brought up specific examples of unethical or exclusionary research as well as worries that they were being experimented on.

DJ Racism does do a lot of damage in society ! From pandemics to crime; racism is a (pro)motor !

[url][/url] or ; When President Joe Biden announced sweeping new vaccine mandates for 100 million Americans, he stated that these measures were necessary to “protect vaccinated workers from unvaccinated co-workers.” But isn’t the vaccine itself supposed to be what protects the vaccinated? Not well enough, apparently. So whose interests are served by mandating a leaky vaccine that prevents neither infection nor transmission of a disease that is chiefly dangerous to people over 75 or with serious preexisting medical conditions?

“The unvaccinated” is a group defined more by class than by any other characteristic (perhaps besides age). Although the Biden administration has invested $10 billion toward expanding access to vaccines and building “vaccine confidence” in low-income areas, staunch resistance remains in many working-class and minority communities. In New York City for example, only 28% of the city’s Black residents aged 18 to 44 were vaccinated as of August 2021, when the city began paying residents $100 each to receive the vaccine. When that didn’t work, the city embraced a vaccine passport system that would exclude the majority of young Black New Yorkers from most indoor and civic activities, amounting to a de facto form of segregation.

DJ Paying people to get a vaccine, punisheng those who do not get a vaccine is a "terrible way of communicating"! Why not accept you may never get 100% of people willing to take a vaccine ? Certainly if that vaccine at bests offers 90% protection...

In ALL countries some people do not want to get vaccinated for very different reasons. Fear of needles is different from fear of big pharma-experiments...There are alternatives for vaccinations ! Unvaccinated careworkers could accept being kept away from high risk groups...Communicate and avoid needles confrontations !

-Dr. John Campbell; Now and the next months; [url][/url] or Limited info under the video, some remarks;

Israel may be at a lower % then the UK of fully vaccinated population total. But 1/3 of its population is under 18/21...Young people are supposed to be more save for Covid (proberbly even for Delta allthough the differences are getting much less ! A higher viral load will do more harm-also in children !)

New Zealand/Australia cases going up high speed...DJ-restrictions are the other factor. Dr.J.C. is focussing to much on the vaccines in my opinion. 

Where does Dr.J.C. gets his statistics from-they are outdated ! US over 700,000 case at worldometers for days, UK, Canada cases going up-NOT "leveling off" !

UK depression 10% of adults in 2019-over 20% during the pandemic is important info ! You do not have to get infected to get effected !

The Dr.J.C. baseline remains "vaccines will save us" ...ignoring by now lots of cases of larger spread events in vaccinated groups. His conclusion "the west will see the last wave this autumn because of high level of natural/vaccine immunity" is "very optimistic" at best, "totally unrealistic-ignoring earlier waves" may be my view...

Dr.J.C. keeps ignoring facts that does not fit in his increase of cases in vaccinated-increasing (though still low numbers) also in more symptomatic cases. Again Delta R0 is between 5 and 8-you need both vaccines AND restrictions...and we are not doing that...(I hope I am wrong, I am NOT an expert ! I did get it wrong with expecting we would see major increases when schools far...but it may be a slower increase...) . 

DJ-Dr.J.C. is an expert with decades of experience in training (he is NOT a virologist/epidemiologist !) and-just like me-trying to make some sense...[url][/url] or ; And while $700 for a course of molnupiravir pills isn’t exactly cheap—a transfusion alone can cost $1,000, & that’s on top of the cost of drugs delivered intravenously. A course of monoclonal antibodies can cost $2,100, while remdesivir can cost $3,100


Fun fact— The name of the new drug molnupiravir is a reference to Thor’s hammer, Mjölnir!  (And a drug ending with -vir means it’s an antiviral drug).


Just how much more severe is #DeltaVariant in kids mortality? Data from Florida among kids <16 show that the case fatality ratio (CFR) in kids has now climbed 3.5x more than pre Delta! To now 1 death for every 10,000 infected. Ogen  

is one of many other experts trying to inform the public.

DJ-I think the best experts in the world most likely are very divided on what to expect. Most of them may agree on "some increase of cases" the coming months. Most proberbly worried on decreased vaccine protection...the very low rate of testing/sequencing. The lack of restrictions. 

In my opinion we have to get more aware of pandemic risks. By "managing the risks" we can keep a place ignoring the risks this place is getting more and more unsafe...

-Music [url][/url] or Visage-Fade to Grey 1981 rare video...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
KiwiMum View Drop Down

Joined: May 29 2013
Status: Offline
Points: 23130
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 02 2021 at 12:29pm

The prostitutes in Africa were found to have the CCR5 Delta 32 gene mutation - my favourite of all the gene mutations and something my children and I have studied repeatedly over the years - and this mutation, which is found in about 10% of Europeans, has a history of protecting the carriers from nasty diseases. From the descendants of the inhabitants of Eyam in the UK, they discovered that if you have 2 copies of this gene, one from each parent, then you never even succumbed to the Black Death and this would account for the people who were surrounded by it and still never became ill. If you have one copy (from one of your parents) you became ill with the disease but you recovered. There's a fascinating scientific study that was done on this. 

And so the prostitutes in Africa who, despite having sex with multiple HIV positive men and using no protection, still don't have HIV themselves and they were found to have the double mutation. 

There's just been a report in the Czech republic that has concluded that people with this mutation are far more likely to have an asymptomatic case of Covid and are far less likely to have a symptomatic case of Covid, and therefore they have concluded that the gene may be able to be used as an indicator in the potential severity of Covid. 

But having this gene isn't 100% a great thing, as research has also shown that the carriers of it have a slightly shortened lifespan, by between 2 and 4 years. 

Personally I'd love to know if we have it in our family. Given the opportunity I'd have my full genome mapped. It would be so interesting.

"Once you've decided that something's absolutely true, you've closed your mind on it, and a closed mind doesn't go anywhere. Question everything. That's what education's all about." ~ David Eddings
Back to Top
carbon20 View Drop Down

Joined: April 08 2006
Location: West Australia
Status: Offline
Points: 64106
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 02 2021 at 2:56pm

I wondered if people have  had a bad reaction to the vaccine , would be the ones that got really sick if the contracted it.......

I know in my family we all heal from wounds very quickly,My Mom has just had another major  operation(broken femur again!!!) that's  5 over 7 years and at 86 ,she's up and about after a week.......

my uncle by marriage has some sort of super anti bodies,not sure exactly I'll have to ask him,

We humans have evolved to survive.....

take care all πŸ˜·πŸ˜‰πŸ’‰

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.πŸ––

Marcus Aurelius
Back to Top
KiwiMum View Drop Down

Joined: May 29 2013
Status: Offline
Points: 23130
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 02 2021 at 4:11pm

Originally posted by carbon20 carbon20 wrote:

I wondered if people have  had a bad reaction to the vaccine , would be the ones that got really sick if the contracted it.......

......and conversely if the people who had no reaction to the jabs would have had a very mild Covid infection. 

They suspect there are a couple of asymptomatic people in Auckland who are spreading it and have no idea they are infected.

"Once you've decided that something's absolutely true, you've closed your mind on it, and a closed mind doesn't go anywhere. Question everything. That's what education's all about." ~ David Eddings
Back to Top
carbon20 View Drop Down

Joined: April 08 2006
Location: West Australia
Status: Offline
Points: 64106
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 02 2021 at 4:18pm

Originally posted by KiwiMum KiwiMum wrote:

Originally posted by carbon20 carbon20 wrote:

I wondered if people have  had a bad reaction to the vaccine , would be the ones that got really sick if the contracted it.......

......and conversely if the people who had no reaction to the jabs would have had a very mild Covid infection. 

Yep ...πŸ˜‰

The problem being how do you know !!??

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.πŸ––

Marcus Aurelius
Back to Top
KiwiMum View Drop Down

Joined: May 29 2013
Status: Offline
Points: 23130
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 02 2021 at 4:27pm

Well there is no way of knowing.

"Once you've decided that something's absolutely true, you've closed your mind on it, and a closed mind doesn't go anywhere. Question everything. That's what education's all about." ~ David Eddings
Back to Top
carbon20 View Drop Down

Joined: April 08 2006
Location: West Australia
Status: Offline
Points: 64106
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 02 2021 at 7:39pm

Genetic testing at birth and a QR code tattooed on you bum.....lmao

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.πŸ––

Marcus Aurelius
Back to Top
KiwiMum View Drop Down

Joined: May 29 2013
Status: Offline
Points: 23130
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 02 2021 at 8:12pm

Oh you're talking about the CCR5 Delta 32 mutation. I thought you were speculating about who would have what reaction to a disease or a vaccine.   

The mutation can be easily tested for. There are a number of labs that offer the test for that particular gene. It's a very popular test within the male homosexual community as 2 copies of the gene make you immune to HIV, so unprotected sex is not so risky. Google it. You'll see. 

Personally I'd love to know if my family have it, and if so, how many copies. It's on my list of things to spend money on but it keeps getting pushed down the list as my children get older and more expensive to raise.  

"Once you've decided that something's absolutely true, you've closed your mind on it, and a closed mind doesn't go anywhere. Question everything. That's what education's all about." ~ David Eddings
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group

Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 60152
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 02 2021 at 11:15pm


Of course we are all "equal but different". That is why pandemics are even more unpredictable. If a disease in humans isrelated to eating pork countries that do not eat pork are better of...We all have lots of genetic differences-so in a chain reaction-infection-host-spread of disease the hosts do matter...This pandemic wll give lots of info for antropologists...why some groups were hit much harder then others in the same socio-economic situation...

Do people with "red hair" get more or less severe CoViD statistics...shorter or taller people ? From biology short people may be catching more viral load ? 

-Other news [url][/url] or and [url][/url] or , [url][/url] or Some very bizarre very deep major earthquakes the last few days...A M5,9 in Brazil at 589,4 km depth, before that a M7,3 (!!!!) Vanuatu depth 535,8 km depth ! 

I even did take a look at Dutchsinse...[url][/url] or but his stories do not make enough sense for me. BPEarthwatch may have a better-sun related/solar wind-story [url][/url] or BPEarthwatch (BPE) may be a tiny bit underestimating La Palma collapse risks, Hal Turner is over estimating/exploitating risk/ my opinion...

BPEarthwatch has some points linking geological events with famines, (and you may also find some-maybe indirect-links with pandemics). The "year without a summer" 1816 was linked to the Tambora volcanic eruption of 1815. It was one of the reasons for a foodcrisis...and hungry people protesting may spread disease...

[url][/url] or Two "small" quakes within 24 hrs in San Francisco area...M3,4 and 3,0...BPE did mention 27 volcanic eruptions with several more in "orange"...He is linking an increase of quakes with solar flare energy hitting the Earth...

Maybe from statistics he may have a "better story"? 

[url][/url] or Taiwan has "several air defense zones". The largest of these self-made zones may be close to yes it is very likely Chinese planes get into that zone...If the UK would go for a 100 mile zone around the British Isle they could make claims France and Belgium getting into such a zone...with French and Belgian planes still within their own borders...

Israel did attack an Iran nuclear facility near Tehran-from an Azarbaijan airbase...Both Russia, Iran and China "will not be happy with it"...

-Back to the pandemic; numbers [url][/url] or Cases -9%, deaths -10% Eastern Europe seeing high level of increases due to limited vaccinations (and some mutated variants ???). Finland, Denmark see cases going up high speed due to lifting of restrictions...NL cases now only -1%...we are seeing lifting of restrictions and bad weather...

-Flutrackers latest posts;

[url][/url] or (WCCO) – Minnesota health officials reported 3,714 new COVID-19 cases and 17 deaths Friday, following a report that over 230 grade schools have had five or more virus cases since the start of the school year.

DJ Spread via schools becoming a major-tested-factor. Asymptomatic spread will be the major untested factor...

[url][/url] or

COVID-19 deaths hit 5 million as world battles variants

It took just over a year after disease emerged to reach toll of 2.5 million, but next 2.5 million deaths occurred in under 8 months, according to Reuters analysis...

DJ Worldometers still at 4,8 million reported deaths-real number between 15 and 20 million ? [url][/url] or

On a per capita basis, the country that recorded the most new cases this week was Serbia with 681 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, ahead of Mongolia with 511 and Lithuania 450

The US also recorded the biggest number of deaths with 1,924 per day followed by Russia with 830 — striking a record for the fourth day in a row on Friday at 887 — and Brazil with 541.

On Friday, the US neared 700,000 deaths overall since the pandemic began.


Dr. Anthony Fauci, the government’s top infectious disease specialist, warned on Friday that some may see the encouraging trends as a reason to remain unvaccinated.

“It’s good news we’re starting to see the curves” coming down, he said. “That is not an excuse to walk away from the issue of needing to get vaccinated.”

DJ Sorry to say it but tendencies are turning, cases will soon go up again.Decrease of vaccine protection in those vaccinated several months ago, winter on itsway, less restrictions, bad communications, new variants/mutations...Of course if you do not test you do not detect spread in vaccinated people...Wishfull thinking has been the main idea behind "strategies"...

[url][/url] or ;

... Minors can only play online games between 8-9pm on Fridays, weekends and national festivals and holidays. ...

New rules in China mean that under 18s are only allowed to play three hours of online games per week, at those time specified.

Even for a communist state that regulates its citizens lives far more than the West, it is a new extension of control. And that control is now being applied to different parts of society and culture, in a new crackdown.

... The rules have been introduced to curb video gaming addiction.

DJ You can discuss what role governments have to play. In former East-Germany the SED-dictatorship meant no drug problems (just alcohol problems, human trafficking etc.), as good as full employment, low prices for housing, education, health/childcare...In "liberalized economies" costs/profits make those basics very expensive. We need to find a new balance...

[url][/url] or’s Ministry of Health and Population on Thursday reported 741 new coronavirus cases, 37 deaths, and 419 recoveries.

A total of 304,524 cases have been disclosed in Egypt, alongside 17,331 deaths and 256,886 recoveries.

The country’s fourth wave of the virus is in full force, with daily case figures ten times higher than what was recorded at the end of July.

Moreover, the Health Ministry has stated that official figures likely only represent 10 percent of actual cases.

DJ Given the housing situation in Cairo, Alexandria etc. there will be new variants showing up...

[url][/url] or surge in COVID-19 cases is continuing in Atlantic Canada, led by an outbreak in New Brunswick where health officials reported 85 new infections and one virus-related death Friday.

Officials confirmed that a person aged over 90 had died in the Moncton area, bringing the total number of deaths in the province due to novel coronavirus to 60 since the beginning of the pandemic...

...In Nova Scotia, officials reported 77 new cases of COVID-19 since the province's last update on Wednesday...

...Newfoundland and Labrador reported 41 new cases and two more deaths attributed to the novel coronavirus since the province's last update on Wednesday...

...The province [PEI] reported three new COVID-19 cases Friday involving one person in their 20s, one in their 60s and one in their 70s. All three had recently travelled outside of P.E.I. The province has 11 active cases of COVID-19 and has had 302 positive cases since the pandemic began...

DJ Proberbly winter could be a factor in Canada...

Other sources;

[url][/url] or

In later stages of a pandemic, the researchers conclude that use of the effective R rate which takes these factors into account is also not the best route: the focus should be not on contagiousness, but rather on the growth rate of new cases and deaths, examined alongside their predicted time path so a trajectory can be forecasted.

“These are the numbers that really help guide policymakers in making the crucial decisions that will hopefully save lives and prevent overcrowded hospitals as a pandemic plays out – which, as we have seen with COVID-19, can occur over months and even years,” said Kattuman. “The data generated through this time-series model has already proved accurate and effective in countries around the world.”

DJ R0 is presenting a situation that is 2-3 weeks old...

[url][/url] or

According to the survey, commissioned by the European Parliament as part of the State of the Union speech, 87 percent of Portuguese agree and tend to agree that the benefits of the vaccine outweigh its risks, the highest value of the 27 Member States and 15 points above the EU average (72 percent).

Of respondents in Portugal 54 percent agree or tend to agree (32 percent) that being vaccinated against Covid-19 is “a civic duty”, also the highest number of positive responses among Member States.

DJ "Keeping politics out of it" , vaccination as a medical intervention (not a political action). 

[url][/url] or you’re dealing with people in their 30s and 40s and 50s. These are people who, without the pandemic, they would almost certainly be alive and live full lives. It’s so much worse now than it was when the pandemic first happened. #DeltaVariant is tremendously worse.”

DJ In my opinion main problem; politics still not taking this pandemic serious (or even darker agenda's; "cost reductions" this pandemic supposed to kill "people with costs"). There has been no evaluation on how first the pandemic could spread out of China after the january 2020 Wuhan-lockdown...The risks should be clear ! But in april this year "Delta" had "free global travel" out of India...

And again "we did almost beat the virus" / "pandemic allmost over" nonsense...we have heard/seen it before ! 

-Dr.John Campbell [url][/url] or ; natural versus vaccine on some studies under the video.

DJ What I do miss in this story is the [url][/url] or ; 

After initially containing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), many European and Asian countries had a resurgence of COVID-19 consistent with a large proportion of the population remaining susceptible to the virus after the first epidemic wave. By contrast, in Manaus, Brazil, a study of blood donors indicated that 76% (95% CI 67–98) of the population had been infected with SARS-CoV-2 by October, 2020. High attack rates of SARS-CoV-2 were also estimated in population-based samples from other locations in the Amazon Basin—eg, Iquitos, Peru 70% (67–73). The estimated SARS-CoV-2 attack rate in Manaus would be above the theoretical herd immunity threshold (67%), given a basic case reproduction number (R0) of 3.
In this context, the abrupt increase in the number of COVID-19 hospital admissions in Manaus during January, 2021 (3431 in Jan 1–19, 2021, vs 552 in Dec 1–19, 2020) is unexpected and of concern (figure).      After a large epidemic that peaked in late April, 2020, COVID-19 hospitalisations in Manaus remained stable and fairly low for 7 months from May to November, despite the relaxation of COVID-19 control measures during that period

DJ Four factors;

1 Over estimate herd indications for that, even if it was a bit lower it could not explain the explosion of cases later on.

2 High level of immunity started waning-most likely there is a decrease of protection after 6 months-but after 8 months there still should be a high level of protection.

3 New variants (in Manaus-Brazil, P1, Alfa-UK) did evade natural immunity.

4 New variants also had higher transmissibility (higher R0) so infecting more people in a shorter time span. 

See also [url][/url] or variants of the coronavirus have been in the news ever since scientists raised the alarm over B.1.1.7, a SARS-CoV-2 variant that first caught scientists' attention in England in December and that is more transmissible than previously circulating viruses. But now, they're also focusing on a potential new threat: variants that could do an end run around the human immune response. Such "immune escapes" could mean more people who have had COVID-19 remain susceptible to reinfection, and that proven vaccines may, at some point, need an update.

DJ It is not "if" more infectious variants (inside Delta(+) or outside) will show up these months but "where" and "when"...Not testing/sequencing most of the spread without (severe) symptoms is just as stupid as letting the virus/variants spread from China, Brazil, India, South Africa...

"Politics" does not want to learn anything-suggesting there is some "evil agenda" strategy...

-Music; I was hoping to find a mix of "ticket to ride" mixing Beatles and Carpenters clips...but sorry...However this is also nice-I think-[url][/url] or ; Exclusive live performance by The Carpenters (Richard & Karen Carpenter) and band at the 'Grand Gala du Disque', 15 February 1974 in the RAI Congres Building, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. This show was live broadcast by AVRO Television in the Netherlands 

Medley:  - 'Little Honda’ (Brian Wilson and Mike Love)  - ‘The End of the World’ (Sylvia Dee, Arthur Kent),  -  ‘Runaway’, (Del Shannon and Max Crook)  - 'Da Doo Ron Ron’, (Jeff Barry, Elly Greenwich, Phil Spector)  - 'Johnny B. Goode’ (Chuck Berry)

Broadcast date: 15-02-1974 

DJ TV in NL started october 1 1951-so now celebrating 70 years of Dutch TV...TopPop remains special [url][/url] or was the first regular dedicated pop music television series in the Dutch language area. The Netherlands broadcaster AVRO aired the programme weekly, from September 22, 1970, to June 27, 1988

DJ [url][/url] or 

[url][/url] or TopPop YouTube channel...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group

Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 60152
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 03 2021 at 9:42pm


From [url][/url] or

Japan's PM is apparently set to resign over his poor handling of Covid: 141 deaths per million population in a crowded island and high proportion of older people. Our Covid deaths are 2004 per million with an ongoing death toll of 1000 per week.



This is the state of daily hospital admissions with COVID-19 in England- ~40 children admitted to hospital each day. From a preventable illness. Risk of admission is highest in adolescents & under 5s. What is our govt doing to protect them ?

This is the state of daily hospital admissions with COVID-19 in England- ~40 children admitted to hospital each day. From a preventable illness. Risk of admission is highest in adolescents & under 5s. What is our govt doing to protect them?

DJ (A bit of a tech problem...

One of the reasons Portugal has a high level of vaccinations is "politics" stayed out of the discussion on a medical intervention...The UK now seeing over 40 children per day going into hospital while BoJo claims his party is supporting NHS...(by defunding it ?)

-Numbers [url][/url] or ;

When I look at my country-The Netherlands=NL cases -0,5%, deaths -11%...we may be going the "UK-road" where a criminal government is claiming less then a 1,000 deaths per week is "no problem"...

UK cases still +1% , deaths -19% last week 965, this week 785...with hardly any new vaccinations and waning immunity the level of vaccine/natural protection for the UK is decreasing. With winter coming, an energy crisis, outlook not good. 

US cases -23%, deaths -20%; 12,509 last week, this week 9,956 the US may be moving to a bit less high levels-still much to high...

Global trends cases -11%, deaths -10%. We did see 3 million cases this week, down from 3,3 million. Deaths worldwide last week was 54,623 as far as reported, this week 48,957...Worldometers total deaths from Covid at 4,816,000+ others allready over the 5 million...

Sunday-oct-3 total number of 303,127 reported cases worldwide, 4,625 is "unusualy low". The 7 day moving average is 420,000 cases per day, almost 7,000 deaths. 

As reported also on other posts here on this forum-also young healthy people catch the virus, children also at risk. In the UK 1-in-5 schoolchildren by now "getting natural immunity" because the government is not providing vaccine protection. This means 40 children per day getting into UK hospitals, number will go up...

Vaccines have limited risks, not aspirating while vaccinating can end up the vaccine getting into a bloodvessel instead of the muscle...That can cause all kinds of extra problems...But statistics make VERY, VERY clear !!!! Vaccines are reducing risks in a major way ! So get vaccinated if you did not yet get "the shot"...If there is fear for needles, side effects-talk about it ! Maybe in Black, Hispanic (etc) communities Black, Hispanic HCW-ers may see more people getting vaccine protection. Booster vaccines also do work Israel is showing us. 

By getting vaccinated you can help society. Healthcare may get a little more room for non-CoViD care..also much needed ! 

And since I am not neutral, hate to be "objective"...(I do not believe anyone can be "objective" !) next time you vote get a politician who works for the people not "big money" if you can make such a choise...(lots of politics for now have gone "rotten"...)

-Flutrackers latest posts;

[url][/url] or latest; 

  • I do not know who the CDC Health Alert Network are but I do not think they have anything to do with 'The CDC', they seem to be a pro-Ivermectin lobby.
    [EDIT] I dug a little deeper and the CDC Health Alert Network is part of the CDC but I can not see how it can be referenced as pro Ivermectin given the text says
    "Ivermectin is not authorized or approved by FDA for prevention or treatment of COVID-19. The National Institutes of Health’s (NIH) COVID-19 Treatment Guidelines Panel has also determined that there are currently insufficient data to recommend ivermectin for treatment of COVID-19."

    The Indian COVID kit is unfortunate as Ivermectin has yet to be shown to be effective and Doxycycline is an antibiotic which will not impact the virus but may well lead to resistance.
    Last edited by JJackson; Today, 04:53 PM.


I am so "over it" with the US health departments. They all disagree with each other in varying degrees. The mask fiasco is one example. This is why this site recommendation is to consult with your medical practitioner.

As to the India situation - I really like John Campbell but these outbreaks run in waves and the India wave was hitting a downturn when the kits were distributed anyway. I am not sure there is any correlation between the wave downturn and some of the contents of the kits. Overall the kits are probably better than nothing since they include masks and an oximeter. Time will tell as the pandemic is not over.

DJ The picture I have on Ivermectin in short. Get a vaccine-limited risks, very good protection. Ivermectin may be coming in short supply if people that can get a vaccine refuse to take that offer. Ivermectin could be usefull in treating allready infected persons...but it still is an unclear story...

It is NOT the alternative for vaccination !!! As far as I did see in some cases it may prevent infection, in other cases people using Ivermectin still did get infected-some died...(May be related to dosages, viral loads etc. )

[url][/url] or latest; Oct 1 (Reuters) - The European Union's drug regulator on Friday identified a possible link between rare cases of blood clotting in deep veins with Johnson & Johnson's (JNJ.N) COVID-19 vaccine and recommended the condition be listed as a side-effect of the shot.

The European Medicines Agency also recommended that immune thrombocytopenia (ITP), a bleeding disorder caused by the body mistakenly attacking platelets, be added as an adverse reaction with an unknown frequency to the J&J vaccine product information and to AstraZeneca's (AZN.L) vaccine.

J&J said while the chances of experiencing these conditions were very low,β€―the product information would be updated accordingly as it continues to work closely with authorities including EMA...

DJ Yes-vaccinations = medical intervention = not risk free. Not taking a vaccine is also a choice...may have (much) more risks...Like the Ivermectin story a long term discussion. We do not live in a perfect world !

[url][/url] or ; What some are calling the worst U.S. health-care labor crisis in memory is sharpening concerns about attrition from resistance to vaccine mandates -- even in the medical mecca of Massachusetts, where Covid cases remain well within hospital capacity. About 16% of American hospitals had critical staffing shortages as of Oct. 1, according to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

The uptick initially coincided with a surge in Covid-19 hospitalizations, but shortages have persisted even as the virus ebbs, suggesting other factors.

“We don’t have a single position we can afford to lose right now,” Eric Dickson, president of UMass Memorial Health, told Bloomberg Radio last month. “I have areas that have a 50% vacancy rate. And God forbid we lose any more.”

In recent weeks, worker shortages have prompted extreme measures, even in regions that aren’t Covid hot spots. In Virginia, five state psychiatric hospitals had to stop accepting patients. A lack of nurses forced Rhode Island Hospital to close part of its emergency department. And a major Michigan hospital chain says 5% of its beds can’t be filled for lack of staff...

DJ We need communication not confrontation !!! Treating some people in some (public) jobs as garbage, expendable, NOT willing to give public jobs, the public sector a decent income is "bad politics"...The "bussiness/market sector" dominating all insane sort of tunnelvision...

[url][/url] or ;DJ The link does not open in the EU....But the point is vaccines do NOT offer 100 % protection...As far as I know most vaccines are seen as very good if they offer 90% protection against an illness or infection...

Delta-and Delta+ variants are "exploding"still. Since we do not test ad random large scale in the vaccinated we do not have any idea of the a/pre-symptomatic spread. Contact tracing gets as good as impossible that way ! If 80% is asymptomatic spread there are 5 steps between one detected infected person and the next-on average. Lot of spread is in/via unvaccinated children...

Some variants/mutations (Delta/Delta+ is the main global variant for months now !) will even evade testing...

Some experts claim Delta R0=between 5 and 8 so uou need BOTH !!! vaccines AND restrictions...get the level of cases under 35 per 100,000 (that kind of numbers per day/week ? ) and we are not doing that !

So YES it will get worse ! We did see four global waves (more or less) and very limited vaccine/natural protection is NOT enough to stop the next wave in the coming months ! 

In october 2020 "Alfa-UK" variant started spreading in Kent-the UK...Why not something similar will happen this year  in some country ? Conditions did not change that much...even less restrictions in most places...

[url][/url] or ; Unsustainable natural gas prices spiking in Europe… it’s not even winter yet. Leaders are expressing real angst over the ability to adequately heat homes soon. Fertilizers next year, meat processing, and carbonated soft drinks also affected. Green alternatives?

DJ Lets go political ! You can claim there is a health-crisis, a housing-crisis, an education crisis, an energy crisis...Basically there is a political crisis ! You can not consume two Earths when there is only one planet Earth ! Politics need to get realistic-do more with less ! 

This pandemic in part became worldwide due to (unlimited) international airtravel...We still not see any discussion on that ! Airpolution, traffic accidents killing millions each year is "normal" ???? The "old normal" was sick ! Destroying the planet ! 

Yet politics still stick to the "old normal" is "our goal"! (Very unnice words here....) We need other politicians, other goals ! Public interest should be #1 and #2 and #3 !!!! Not big bussinesses !!!

-Dr. John Campbell [url][/url] or "Antiviral gamechanger"...on the Merck oral antiviral under the video...

One of the reasons I did/do put a link to Dr.J.C. is that I more and more disagree with him...I find twitters often more informative. Dr.J.C. main goal is "to calm people down"...His claim that "natural infection" on top of vaccinations is "boosting immunity" I find disgusting...

I often wonder what Dr.J.C.'s links are with the UK conservative (BoJo) party/UK government...does he get paid by them for his video's ? 

I also totally disagree with [url][/url] or  his political views. But his views are often based on emotions I can get...He is not claiming to be "neutral" or "objective"....

Hal Turner did claim "people in Australia (a.o.) were picked up by police and forced to get a vaccine...That kind of insanity...Point is a lot of people take that for "real news"...The US for news/public information is at around #60 worldwide, even doing worse then Poland...

One of the major disasters in this pandemic is in communications..."(anti)social media" (again) being a major factor-in part because "other media" make a mess of it...are to closely linked with "politics/industry"....Here in NL most of the misinformation came from the government..."our" healthminister claiming it was OK to hug-but not to shake hands...The Dutch CDC/NIH becoming a political tool...

This pandemic is caused by bad politics and is only getting worse due bad politics...It IS a political crisis in every way you can think of !

Music ; Eloise - Barry Ryan [url][/url] or hysterical rock...[url][/url] or ; Barry Ryan (born Barry Sapherson; 24 October 1948 – 28 September 2021) was a British pop singer and photographer. He achieved his initial success in the mid 1960s in a duo with his twin brother Paul. After Paul ceased performing to concentrate solely on songwriting, Barry became a solo artist. His most successful hit, "Eloise", reached number 2 on the UK Singles Chart in 1968.

DJ He would be in my Top Ten...with a lot of other songs...OK-top 100 or so...enjoy !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group

Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 60152
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 04 2021 at 9:00pm


A look at numbers [url][/url] or ; New Zealand trends cases +68%...last week 112 this week 188 cases...Delta may be "out of control"; impossible to get back to "zero-CoViD" in a short time even if you try so hard...Asymptomatic spread may be a major factor...

Worldometers has the global reported number of deaths on 4,822,761 at this moment. Proberbly a bit higher when you look at that number-but far from the 5 million some other statistics show. A gap of 3% in the numbers indicating these numbers are only indications...

Another notion on "numbers" in NL news [url][/url] or and [url][/url] or some reports come up with NL cases on a weekly basis now +2%...[url][/url] or Worldometers has cases at +1%.

Global cases -8%, deaths -10% but in Europe cases are +8%, deaths +5%, Oceania (Australia, New Zealand etc. cases/deaths +13%). 

We may be getting to another turning point soon with cases going up again in many places-driven by Delta variants. The real number of cases most likely is much higher-but most stay "under the radar" do give no/mild far. A lot of spread will be in children/young people that do have better immunity. 

With decreasing vaccine protection-allready limited against infection, so far doing much better in keeping hospital cases down, the news is not good. 

By now 77 countries reporting increases of cases, 65 countries see increase of deaths. 

-Flutrackers latest news;

[url][/url] or ; Model predicts natural COVID-19 immunity wanes fast, re-infection likely

Reinfection from SARS-CoV-2 under endemic conditions will most likely occur at a median of 16 months, according to a modeling study published late last week in The Lancet Microbe.
The researchers looked at the human-infecting coronaviruses SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, HCoV-229E, HCoV-OC43, and HCoV-NL63 from Feb 12 to Jun 15, 2020, analyzing about 58 alphacoronavirus, 105 betacoronavirus, 11 deltacoronavirus, and 3 gammacoronavirus genome sequences. 

They compared peak-infection and reinfection data in endemic scenarios. The method also used antibody optical density data spanning 128 days to 28 years post-infection from 1984 to 2020.
According to the model they derived from the data, reinfection by SARS-CoV-2 under endemic conditions would likely occur from 3 months and 5.1 years after peak antibody response, with a median of 16 months. 

This is less than half the time for other endemic human-infecting coronaviruses (e.g., HCoV-OC43 was associated with 15 months to 10 years). Even for SARS-CoV, the virus that causes SARS and is closest in time range, the model projected a range of 4 months to 6 years.
"Reinfection can reasonably happen in three months or less," said lead author Jeffrey Townsend, PhD, in a University of North Carolina (UNC) at Charlotte press release. "Therefore, those who have been naturally infected should get vaccinated. Previous infection alone can offer very little long-term protection against subsequent infections."
The study author conclude, "Our results caution that reinfection will become increasingly common as pandemic disease transitions into endemic disease."

DJ Of course waning natural immunity can give some info on waning vaccine immunity. There is discussion on "booster vaccines" wich groups would need them. Also governments are making plans on what kind of level of vaccinations may be needed next year. Here in NL the government did reserve money for two extra vaccinations in 2022. 

[url][/url] or 

DJ plague-vaccines ! Better detection tools...welcome developments !

[url][/url] or ; Israel restricted its COVID Green Pass on Sunday to allow only those who have received a vaccine booster dose or recently recuperated from coronavirus to enter indoor venues. The new criteria mean that nearly 2 million people will lose their vaccination passport in the coming days.

Israel is the first country to make a booster shot a requirement for its digital vaccination passport. The move is widely seen as a step to encourage booster vaccination among those who have yet to receive a third dose.

Under the new guidelines, people must have received a booster shot to be eligible for a green pass. Those who have received two vaccine doses, and those who have recovered from coronavirus, will be issued passes valid for six months after the date of their vaccination or recovery.

DJ Israel cases trends -34%, deathsstill high +37% last week 116 deaths, thisweek 159 deaths=17 deaths per million !

[url][/url] or latest ; Fact Check-Data from Public Health England does not undermine role of COVID-19 vaccines

By Reuters Fact Check
On page 20, this figure of 2,542 is broken down by vaccination status. Among the fully vaccinated (more than 14 days after a second dose) there were 1,613 deaths (63.4% of the total). Among the unvaccinated there were 722 deaths (28.4% of the total). The remaining deaths were among the partially vaccinated.
Reuters Fact Check has previously addressed social media posts questioning why more cases and deaths might be reported amongst a vaccinated population than an unvaccinated one.

“The data should be interpreted taking into consideration the context of very high vaccine coverage in the UK population. Even with a highly effective vaccine, it is expected that a large proportion of cases would occur in vaccinated individuals, simply because a larger proportion of the population are vaccinated than unvaccinated,” a spokesperson for PHE previously told Reuters via email (here).

Dr Muge Cevik, a clinical lecturer in infectious diseases and medical virology at the University of St Andrews, also told Reuters that when much of a population has been vaccinated, “most infections and deaths are expected to be among those vaccinated”.

DJ This story is "not good enough" can make more calculations on how good vaccines offer protection for what age groups/gender...also looking at when people did get vaccinated...What is the "best" time for a booster vaccine resulting in lowest number of vaccinated still getting infected and more severe illness. What is the eason effect" in this...will it get worse with winter coming ? 

[url][/url] or ; A previously unknown virus that can infect humans and cause disease has been identified by scientists in Japan. The novel infectious virus, named Yezo virus and transmitted by tick bites, causes a disease characterized by fever and a reduction in blood platelets and leucocytes. The discovery was made by researchers at Hokkaido University and colleagues, and the results have been published in the journal Nature Communications.

Keita Matsuno, a virologist at Hokkaido University’s International Institute for Zoonosis Control, said: “At least seven people have been infected with this new virus in Japan since 2014, but, so far, no deaths have been confirmed.”

The Yezo virus was discovered after a 41-year-old man was admitted to the hospital in 2019 with fever and leg pain after being bitten by an arthropod believed to be a tick while he was walking in a local forest in Hokkaido. He was treated and discharged after two weeks, but tests showed he had not been infected with any known viruses carried by ticks in the region. A second patient showed up with similar symptoms after a tick bite the following year.

DJ No "Human-to-human/H2H" spread, still nasty because ticks seem to be causing a lot of health issues (a.o. Lyme-disease).

[url][/url] or latest; 

New Zealand admits it can no longer get rid of coronavirus

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced a cautious plan to ease lockdown restrictions in Auckland, despite an outbreak there that continues to simmer.

Since early in the pandemic, New Zealand had pursued an unusual zero-tolerance approach to the virus through strict lockdowns and aggressive contact tracing.
The outbreak has grown to more than 1,300 cases, with 29 more detected on Monday. A few cases have been found outside of Auckland.
But Ardern said that most measures would remain in place to keep the outbreak under control, including exhaustive contact tracing and isolating those who got infected.

DJ As far as I did follow it, most cases are in Auckland...just like in Australia some regions may see no/limited cases and will not "be happy" with more lifting of restrictions. 

[url][/url] or ; According to CCTV News Client, on October 3, during a routine nucleic acid test in Khorgos City, Ili Prefecture, Xinjiang, two people were found to have positive nucleic acid test results. They were all asymptomatic patients with new coronary pneumonia after being diagnosed by experts. . On October 4th, the National Health Commission dispatched a working group to Yili to guide the handling of the epidemic. At 16:30 on the 4th, the Press Office of the People's Government of Horgos City held a press conference and announced that the city's first round of nucleic acid testing results were all negative. At present, the city's second round of nucleic acid testing has been carried out.

DJ China trends; 0 deaths for weeks, cases -33%, last week 312, this week 208. Winter will make the "Zero-CoViD strategy" harder.[/url] or ; Sooner or later, we’re all going to get COVID-19, many experts say.

Even if we’re fully vaccinated.
“The idea that we’re going to live our lives without ever getting it is a fantasy — and a dangerous one,” said Andrew Noymer, an epidemiologist and demographer at UC Irvine. “A lot of people just don’t understand that. We’re all going to get it.”

While many experts agree, this idea — like most everything in science-as-it-unfolds-before-your-very-eyes — is not universally embraced...

DJ The hope is CoViD will develop towards a cold-virus. The facts however may hint in the opposite direction-higher viral loads, more disease...So a need to avoid "we are all getting the virus" ! Or at least try to spread the disease burden over a longer time. It would be welcome if more investments in healthcare would be made !

[url][/url] or ; Hospitalizations in vaccinated breakthroughs 21% vs 32% rate pre-vaccine. (I wonder if this is from increasing monoclonal antibody intervention or other early treatment or human decisions about relative risks?)
Hospital cases ending up in ICU were 31% vs 32%.
Deaths were 4% vs 12%. (This was a dramatic reduction, but how much of the improvement was from better treatments developed later in the pandemic? Also was the later cohort more heavily weighted with under 75 yrs of age?)

The last slide (17) has the hospitalization risks they found per condition if you are interested.

DJ I have to read further to understand it.....21% of cases now in vaccinated ? 32% "pre-vaccine"=reinfection rate ? 

[url][/url] or ; Abstract: Patients with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) may be particularly prone to develop COVID-19. An unusual extended course of COVID-19 disease illness has been reported in one ASD patient and a group of patients have COVID-19 disease in a neurodevelopmental facility. 

It has been widely reported that many of those with ASD have substantial sleep disorders with low levels of melatonin and various genetic alterations related to melatonin production have been found. 

Several lines of evidence point to a substantial role of melatonin in the body’s innate defense system including acting as a scavenger, an antioxidant and modulating the immune system. 

We therefore hypothesize that melatonin deficiency may predispose those ASD patients who have low melatonin output to COVID-19 disease. Potential implications for treatment are discussed.

DJ Maybe Melatonin could be included in "boosting immunity" list of supplements (also vitamin D, C, zinc etc.) to become "best prepared" even after vaccination if we can not stop the virus. (Also Melatonin usuable for better diagnoses/treatment of autism/ASD ?)

[url][/url] or are also considering shelving the Green Pass regime in favor of the more lenient “purple badge” mandate for outdoor restaurant spaces, gyms, outdoor events, swimming pools, museums and libraries.

Purple badge restrictions mean anyone can access the locations, provided that social distancing rules are enforced and overcrowding is avoided.

Meanwhile, some Israelis were red with anger at the imposition of the Green Pass, which requires vaccination and testing to enter public venues.

DJ Colourfull story...I rather see social distance, no vaccine passports then vaccine passports and no social distance. Since giving up social distance in NL casesare going up...

-Other news;

[url][/url] or 

[url][/url] or 

DJ-Russia-Iran-China is THE power in Asia...Turkey may be trying to get more influence in Asia (is also in competition with Saudi Arabia as "best protector of Islam"...) Erdogan may be overplaying...soon will be in conflict with both the west (for fighting Kurds in Syria, Iraq a.o.) and the east (supporting Azerbaijan against RIC interests). 

China and India both will try all they can to avoid a major conflict. China would like to have "more control" over Taiwan-but most likely via a "Hong Kong scenario" ; control over the Taiwan government..The US seems to be "rethinking" its "one China policy". For Bejing/RIC US (UK, Australia, NATO) dealing with Taiwan as "another China" is unacceptable. US weapons/military in Taiwan may be a red line. 

However "asymetric actions" could see RIC supporting (or organizing) "independent movements" in Hawaii, Alaska, Texas, California...Economic warfare is allready a fact-with RIC going for an alternative SWIFT international banking system, dumping the US$, bonds etc. 

If there is an escalation it may be false flag-like. Israel/US attacking air bases in Azerbeijan to blame Russia/Iran...Israel did attack Iran tankers in open waters, claiming Iran agression when Iran reacts...

Pakistan is in China-Pakistan Economic Corridor...(like India and Iran also member of Shanghai Cooperation Organization...). Pakistan was also involved on the Azeri side in the short war with Armenia...Turkey-Iran-Pakistan (TIP) is getting frustrated by Turkey/Erdogan...Maybe resulting in PRIC ? (Pakistan-Russia-Iran-China cooperation). Russia has major influence in India...(and Israel). 

Playing with fire can however start a fire...

Cyber warfare [url][/url]or in my opinion has a lot of similarity with "real wars". From "info gathering" and spying-without being detected to (try to ) take over of "controls"...Israel/US did attack the Iran nuclear program [url][/url] or .

A very likely scenario is "outsourcing" of some of the warfare to "criminal organizations" (a.o. [url][/url] or ) so countries can deny their own role in it. (Just like international crime may have a lot of "intel links"-partly funding operations to fight crime...). 

[url][/url] or BP Earth Watch on the La Palma volcanic eruption. Can lava-flows decrease tsunami risks ? DJ-If there is a "very major" volcanic explosion there may still be some risks...

Bio-warfare, some claim China "started" this pandemic, may be a growing risk. The more infectious diseases the more there is a risk of "groups" sending/using an infected person/hosts to spread disease...Not providing vaccines can get close to bio-warfare...

-Music; The Vaccines - I Want You To Want Me, I Need You To Need Me (this is a Cheap Trick) [url][/url] or 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
KiwiMum View Drop Down

Joined: May 29 2013
Status: Offline
Points: 23130
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 05 2021 at 2:28pm

I haven't heard of anyone in NZ being angry that restrictions are going to be eased. Everyone seems to be delighted and certainly in our national newspapers various groups have been calling for a relaxation of restrictions for weeks now. There are a lot of small businesses that are really struggling under the restrictions that really don't make sense. 

To give you an example. There's a cafe in my local town that does great coffee. Under level 3 restrictions you can call them and order a coffee and then wait in the street until they indicate that your coffee is ready and then they have to put it on a table outside and you can come and pick it up. But if you're walking down the street and think I'd like a coffee, you can't stop at the door and order one because you're not allowed to speak to them, so you have to call them. But you can't stand at the door and call them, you have to walk down the street and call them. The cafe owner told me that she's lost a lot of business over this and it got to the point where she actually shut the cafe because she was losing money being open, but if she had been allowed to take coffee orders from the door she'd have been ok. 

Some of the rules have just been plain stupid. For example in the supermarket there are marks on the floor to stand on so you are two meters from the person in front, but yesterday I was on my mark and so was the lady at the next checkout queue to me and we were standing less than a meter apart but in different queues. Obviously, in a supermarket setting, the virus can't move sideways!!!!!!! 

"Once you've decided that something's absolutely true, you've closed your mind on it, and a closed mind doesn't go anywhere. Question everything. That's what education's all about." ~ David Eddings
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group

Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 60152
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 05 2021 at 9:59pm

KiwiMum, New Zealand was/is very ambitious in its CoViD-strategy...And yes-we had supermarket-lines where you keep good distance from the one in front of you, but next to you it may be just 1 meter, coffee/cookies take away...New Zealand is moving into summer now...

[url][/url] or is from New Zealand NZ will also see vaccine passports, masks etc. trying to keep CoViD community spread at 0 the best one can. 

[url][/url] or

“Elimination has protected thousands of lives in Aotearoa. We have to stay the course to keep everyone safe. Now is not the right time to change our approach, particularly when so many of our vulnerable communities are still at risk,” says Green Co-leader Marama Davidson.

“We need a clear coordinated approach which prioritises our most vulnerable right now. We have seen the tragic consequences overseas when restrictions are eased too early.

DJ I am NOT neutral, not an "expert", not "objective"....but I rather can not get coffee walking down the street than see several people per day die from an avoidable disease. Maybe the level of vaccine protection in NZ still is not good enough. Certainly the Maori, other vulnarable groups may face more risks...

On the long run I do not see an alternative for Zero-Covid..."living with the virus=living with a worsening pandemic"...

Numbers [url][/url] or tend upward though worldwide still -7% for cases, -10% for deaths, 72 countries reporting increases...October 5 did see 411,101 cases, 7,487 deaths being reported. We are stll close to 50,000 deaths per week being reported. 

US cases/deaths -12%, UK cases -2%, deaths -16%, NL cases +2%, deaths -15%, Israel cases -32, deaths +42% (most of them before booster vaccines started). Waning immunity in combination with limited vaccination levels and worsening weather do mean increase of cases. 

October 2020 did see the UK detecting first cases of what would become the Alfa/UK variant. There is to limited vaccine protection-in general-to NOT expect some new variant taking its chance this autumn...

Again-as a non-expert-I think there is no alternative for a "zero-covid strategy". Corona-virusses are NOT flu-like...We may be not that far away from two major developments;

1 Immunity evading variants infecting people over and over again

2 Covid-19 spread on a major scale in non-human hosts

On the long run CoViD-19 may become somewhat milder...but "a cold is still a cold", "flu is still flu" and CoViD-19 may stay more nasty then both of them...SARS-1, MERS are even give an indication in wich direction CoViD-19/SARS-2 may develop if we do not STOP THE SPREAD !!!

In absolute numbers this pandemic is allready the worst in recent history...worser then the Spanish Flu. In relative numbers something like 20%-30% of the impact of the Spanish general. 

A combination of high energy prices and a new pandemic wave may increase social unrest. 

-Flutrackers latest posts;

[url][/url] or ; At least 24 children in the northern Indian state of Haryana have died from a mysterious fever. Eight children reportedly died hours after being infected by the fever, local reports claimed.


The Haryana Health Department has, however, failed to identify the mysterious disease or its cause. The authorities have collected blood samples of the deceased kids to identify the illness...


There's bad smoke pollution in the area currently. That will make respiratory diseases worse for children.

DJ There have been outbreaks of H5N1 bird flu in India in recent months...could it be a "high speed Delta+" variant ? 

[url][/url] or

By late 2020, with the emergence of several COVID variants (Alpha, Beta, P.1., etc.) we began to see unexpected surges of the pandemic virus - even among populations with a presumed high degree of acquired immunity (see The Lancet: Resurgence of COVID-19 in Manaus, Brazil, Despite High Seroprevalence).

Hopes gradually shifted from naturally acquired immunity, to vaccination. But as we now know - while they offer good initial protection - their protective effect appears to wane over 6 to 8 months, requiring booster shots.

While appealing, the notion that COVID-19 would be a `one-and-done' infection (like measles or chickenpox) - and `the pandemic would quickly burn itself out' - was a bit naive, and probably based more on hope than on science. The same could be said for the durability of the vaccine.


Unless some new scientific breakthrough changes the equation - or the SARS-CoV-2 virus mutates into a much less `biologically fit' pathogen - COVID appear to be here to stay.

For those who eschew the vaccine because they've `had COVID', and therefore believe themselves to be now and forever immune, this study should raise some red flags.

While contracting the virus every 6 to 18 months is arguably the most `natural' way to gain temporary immunity, there are some decided downsides (death, hospitalization, disability, etc.) to consider.

Vaccines (including boosters) can provide similar - or likely even better - protection, with far less risk.

Neither option is ideal, but those - for now, at least - are the two we have to choose from. At least for those of us who are lucky enough to live in a country where the vaccines are readily available.

DJ There is discussion on "natural immunity" being better/lasting longer...My major worry is CoViD-19 is a "moving target" that keeps mutating, creating new ways to spread more-often with higher viral loads...Even if you vaccinate 100% of the population from 0 to 120 y/o-the vaccine offering 90% protection still this virus may find ways to spread...Asymptomatic spread in itself may not be a burden to healthcare...problem is as long as it is spreading it will keep variants may bring that burden later on...

In the 19th century better healthcare/hygiene, sewage, better ventilation/housing did see a serious decrease of infectious disease. Life expectency has been 40 years-at best-for most. The 20th century did see life expectency almost double ! Anti-biotics, better health care did limit a lot of infectious disease...Flu became much less deadly-both by massive vaccinations and-because of that-better healthcare (available) for those who did get the flu...

We now face a global healthcare crisis that may last decades (If climate collapse gives us that much time) with life expectency decreasing, more chronic disease, more problems containing other diseases..."Living with the virus" means millions of people will die extra each year...

[url][/url] or broke its daily coronavirus deaths record again on Tuesday as the rising toll and the spike in new cases prompt regional response centers to reimpose restrictions that have been absent since the start of the year.

The government tally reported 895 Covid-19 deaths across Russia in the past 24 hours, bringing the official death toll based on daily figures to 211,696 — the highest in Europe.

Russia has now reported all-time high numbers of one-day Covid deaths for six out of the last eight days.

Russia’s Covid information center also reported 25,110 new infections, figures not seen since the height of the last wave of the outbreak in January. Russia is the world’s fifth most affected country by the pandemic with 7.6 million total coronavirus cases.

DJ In most of eastern Europe cases go up high speed. From Finland cases +32%, Poland cases +47%, Romania cases +51%, Ukraine also cases +47%...are there some new variations of Delta spreading ? 

[url][/url] or linking to [url][/url] or ; Avian H10N3 influenza virus has been circulated in waterfowl and territory poultry for several decades in eastern and southern Asia (1,2). So far, there has been no reported outbreak of H10N3 avian influenza virus in poultry farm or wild field. However, the virus spillover from the natural reservoir into human is still a concern for public health. Hereby, we report the first case of human infection with avian H10N3 influenza virus


There have been reports of human infections with a number of avian influenza virus, such as H5N1, H7N9, H10N8 and H7N4 influenza viruses (2-5). To our knowledge, this is the first avian influenza in human caused by H10N3 influenza virus. Similar to the reported human infections by H5N1, H7N9 and H10N8 influenza viruses, H10N3 influenza virus could also cause severe pneumonia (6-9). This patient presented with upper respiratory tract symptoms in the early stage of the disease, but in the course of anti-infection treatment, the disease developed into respiratory distress syndrome within days of admission.

The CT findings of H10H3 avian influenza virus pneumonia in our case included consolidation and multi-segmental ground glass opacities. In parts of consolidation, air bronchogram sign was seen. The CT findings of pneumonia by H10N3 influenza virus is similar to in other genotypes of avian influenza reported previously (6). As no other cases have been identified thus far, the human-to-human transmission of H10N3 may not be a public concern. It is possible that the underlying diseases (hypertension and diabetes) make the patient susceptible to H10N3 infection.

DJ How vulnarable are long-CoViD patients for all kinds of bird-flu ? Infections that may stay unnoticed in healthy people may show up with symptomps in the more vulnarable population. See also [url][/url] or ; One new case of human infection with avian influenza A(H9N2) was reported from National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China to WHO on 14 September 2021.

DJ [url][/url] or has a list of most known H-N combinations (from H1N1 to H15N9).

[url][/url] or ; As investigators begin to identify early markers of disease, identification of common threads with other pathologies may provide some clues. 

Interestingly, years of research in the field of radiation biology documents the complex multi-organ nature of another disease state that occurs after exposure to high doses of radiation: the acute radiation syndrome (ARS). 

Inflammation is a key common player in COVID-19 and ARS, and drives the multi-system damage that dramatically alters biological homeostasis. 

Both conditions initiate a cytokine storm, with similar pro-inflammatory molecules increased and other anti-inflammatory molecules decreased. 

These changes manifest in a variety of ways, with a demonstrably higher health impact in patients having underlying medical conditions. 

The potentially dramatic human impact of ARS has guided the science that has identified many biomarkers of radiation exposure, established medical management strategies for ARS, and led to the development of medical countermeasures for use in the event of a radiation public health emergency. 

These efforts can now be leveraged to help elucidate mechanisms of action of COVID-19 injuries. Furthermore, this intersection between COVID-19 and ARS may point to approaches that could accelerate the discovery of treatments for both.

DJ New findings can be usefull in a much wider field...

[url][/url] or ; Abstract: Objective
To discuss the use of melatonin as an early treatment option on the first day of diagnosis for COVID-19.
Medical Subject Headings terms “COVID-19” and “viral diseases” were manually searched on PubMed, and relevant articles were included.
The results showed that melatonin acts to reduce reactive oxygen species–mediated damage, cytokine-induced inflammation, and lymphopenia in viral diseases similar to COVID-19.
These conclusions provide evidence for potential benefits in melatonin use for COVID-19 treatment as early as the day of diagnosis.

DJ Some people may produce less melatonin (link with Autism-was an item yesterday..) using melatonin (in a wise way !) also helps getting a better sleep, boosting immunity. 

[url][/url] or ; We estimated the distributions of duration of SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid shedding and time to reinfection among 137 persons with at least two positive nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT) results from March to September 2020. 

We analyzed gaps of varying length between subsequent positive and negative NAAT results and estimated a mean duration of nucleic acid shedding of 30.1 (95% CI 26.3, 34.5) days. 

The mean time to reinfection was 89.1 (95% CI 75.3, 103.5) days. Together, these indicate that a 90-day period between positive NAAT results can reliably define reinfection in immunocompetent persons although reinfection can occur at shorter intervals.

DJ It may be sometimes hard to see if someone did get reinfected or still is in the initial infection...It may also be of interest to see what persons do see several (re)infections and why. Is the body having a problem in getting rid of the virus-so it can become active more then once ? May start inflamations in some parts of the body while other parts have gotten rid of the virus ? 

Or could immunity be less ? Being evaded more often in some hosts ? We need much better monitoring and sequencing, testing !

[url][/url] or ; TOKYO -- Purchases of PCR tests in China's Hubei Province surged months before the first official reports of a novel coronavirus case there, according to a report by Australia-based cybersecurity company Internet 2.0.

About 67.4 million yuan ($10.5 million at current rates) was spent on PCR tests in Hubei during 2019, nearly double the 2018 total, with the upswing starting in May, according to the report.

Internet 2.0 collected and analyzed data from a website that aggregates information on public procurement bids in China. The analysis team consists of former officials from intelligence agencies in the U.S., the U.K., Australia, and other countries.

DJ There may be good reasons for China using more PCR-tests in 2019-does not have to be related with an earlier start of SARS-2 in China. [url][/url] or

An Australia-based firm wants the Five Eyes to look into its suspicions that a surge in the procurement of PCR testing equipment in Wuhan, China means the Covid-19 pandemic started earlier than officially reported.

The claim was made by an analytics company called Internet 2.0, which counts the Australian government among its clients, based on open-source data detailing Chinese government contracts. In 2019, there was an unusual surge in purchases of lab equipment for polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing in the Hubei province, the report said.


Internet 2.0’s own analysis shows that purchases of PCR testing equipment have been steadily rising in China, and particularly in the Hubei province, over the years. It highlighted three particular contracts as going “out of trend” in Hubei – made in May, September, and November 2019. They supposedly indicate that China was dealing with the novel coronavirus months before the outbreak in Wuhan was officially detected in December 2019.

Skeptics have come up with alternative explanations. The surge in the acquisition of PCR testing equipment “correlates with the 2017 start of China’s Global Virome Project,” a US government source told The Australian. They were referring to the US-initiated international project to identify and study diseases threatening to jump from animal to humans, of which China became a strong supporter.

“The increase in orders correlates with the time period in which the US CDC and NIH were helping China expand its infectious disease/influenza surveillance capacity,” the source said. “The increase in orders also occurs during the time when EcoHealth Alliance and PREDICT was increasing China’s laboratory capacity.”

The US/UK is out for another confrontation...Reminds me of the "Weapons of Mass Destruction" Iraq would have in 2003. Iraq did work on WMD...during the war with Iran with Saudi/western that time an ally of "the West"...

[url][/url] or ; COVID-19 variants of concern (VOCs), especially the Delta (B1617.2) variant, are more virulent than the wild type, according to an Ontario-based study published in CMAJ yesterday. The cohort included 212,326 cases of non-VOCs (22.4%) and VOCs with the N501Y mutation (76.7%), such as Alpha (B117), Beta (B1351), Gamma (P1), and Delta.
The researchers found that the VOCs had a 52% increased risk of hospitalization (95% confidence interval [CI], 42% to 63%), 89% increased risk of intensive care unit (ICU) admission (95% CI, 67% to 117%), and a 51% increased risk of death (95% CI, 30% to 78%).
The Delta variant, although only 2.8% of the sample size, was associated with a 108% increased risk of infection (95% CI, 78% to 140%), a 235% increased risk of ICU admission (95% CI, 160% to 331%), and a 133% higher risk of death (95% CI, 54% to 231%).
Data also indicated that those infected by VOCs were significantly younger and less likely to have comorbidities compared with those infected with the wild-type virus.


The study included COVID-19 tests that took place Feb 7 to June 26. During that time, Delta was first detected in Canada in April, and by July, it was the predominant strain.

DJ The MSM/politics would like to present Delta risks as not being that much worse...We may be in a significant higher number of cases/deaths since Delta started in India in april-6 months ago !

From the same link; Convalescent plasma didn't help critical COVID-19 patients

"We speculate that [the futility] could be a combination of too few high-quality antibodies in the plasma and these patients being too far along in their illness with a run-away inflammatory immune response for those antibodies to turn the tide," said co-senior author Derek Angus, MD, MPH, in a University of Pittsburgh press release. "It is still possible that convalescent plasma helps people in earlier stages of illness, though it is likely not efficient to use given that monoclonal antibodies … are such an effective treatment for early COVID-19."
While the study was stopped Jan 15 for futility, the researchers noted that convalescent plasma appeared to help the 126 immunocompromised patients (posterior probability of superiority, 89.8%), unless it was given more than 7 days into their hospitalization (posterior probability of harm, 90.3%). However, the sample size was too small to draw any conclusions.


Excess pandemic deaths in the United States were disproportionately higher in Black, American Indian/Alaska Native, and Latino people than in White and Asian people, according to a study today in the Annals of Internal Medicine.
The researchers used Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and US Census Bureau data to compare mortality per 100,000 people from March to December 2020 with the corresponding months in 2019. Excess deaths by racial population size were calculated under the assumption that the 2019 population sizes still held true.

DJ One of the red lines during the pandemic is that the elite that is causing climate change, pandemics, is hurt the least of all groups...It is the poor that suffer the most.

[url][/url] or ; A new study using Canadian data suggests the delta variant of the COVID-19 virus causes more serious disease and is associated with an increased risk of death compared to previous strains — dangers that are drastically reduced with vaccination.

The study, conducted by researchers at the University of Toronto and published Tuesday in the Canadian Medical Association Journal, analyzed more than 212,000 cases of COVID-19 reported in Ontario between Feb. 7 and June 27.

They found that those infected with the alpha variant, which drove the province's third wave in the early spring, or the beta or gamma variants were 52 per cent more likely to be hospitalized, 89 per cent more likely to need intensive care and 51 per cent more likely to die of the infection than those who caught the early 2020 version of the virus.

Among delta cases, they found a 108 per cent increased risk for hospitalization, 235 per cent increased risk for ICU admission and 133 per cent increased risk for death compared to the original virus strain.

Some of the findings echo results from previous research papers published across the globe, but co-author David Fisman believes the study is the first large-scale analysis to include Canadian data.

The University of Toronto epidemiology professor said that could be an important factor for some to more strongly consider the risk that delta carries and get vaccinated...

DJ (Also discussed above) There is an exponential trend-so far- in how bad variants are getting...To get dominant they have to be able to spread faster, produce higher viral load...there may be limits to how bad variants of Covid-19 can get...but we are not there yet ! See also [url][/url] or  and [url][/url] or 

DJ One should-by now-discuss Delta as being [url][/url] or a "Variant of High Consequences"; 

A variant of high consequence has clear evidence that prevention measures or medical countermeasures (MCMs) have significantly reduced effectiveness relative to previously circulating variants. 

Possible attributes of a variant of high consequence: 

In addition to the possible attributes of a variant of concern

  • Impact on Medical Countermeasures (MCM)
    • Demonstrated failure of diagnostic test targets
    • Evidence to suggest a significant reduction in vaccine effectiveness, a disproportionately high number of infections in vaccinated persons, or very low vaccine-induced protection against severe disease
    • Significantly reduced susceptibility to multiple Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) or approved therapeutics
    • More severe clinical disease and increased hospitalizations

A variant of high consequence would require notification to WHO under the International Health Regulations, reporting to CDC, an announcement of strategies to prevent or contain transmission, and recommendations to update treatments and vaccines. 

DJ [url][/url] or

As of August 2021, Delta have been subdivided in the Pango lineage designation system into variants from AY.1 to AY.28. However, there are no information on whether such classification correlate with biological characteristic changes of the virus.[42] It is said that, as of August 2021, AY.4 to AY.11 are predominant in the UK, AY.12 in Israel, AY.2, AY.3, AY.13, AY.14, AY.25 in the US, AY.20 in the US and Mexico, AY.15 in Canada, AY.16 in Kenya, AY.17 in Ireland and Northern Ireland, AY.19 in South Africa, AY.21 in Italy and Switzerland, AY.22 in Portugal, AY.24 in Indonesia, and AY.23 in Indonesia, Singapore, Japan, and South Korea.[43]

As of 30 August 2021, the AY.4 variant accounted for approximately 59% of cases in the United States.[44]

"Delta plus" variant

Delta with K417N corresponds to lineages AY.1 and AY.2[45] and has been nicknamed "Delta plus" or "Nepal variant".[46] It has the K417N mutation[47] which is also present in the Beta variant.[48] The exchange at position 417 is a lysine-to-asparagine substitution.[49]

As of late July 2021, the AY.3 variant accounted for approximately 15% of cases in the United States

Delta itself may have overtaken this pandemic. Some experts claim Delta may stay dominant for a longer time-with a R0 of between 5 and 8 it may becoming harder to get a variant-outside Delta-getting an even higher R0...Delta variants R0 may be getting higher during the proces...However another real risk is SARS-3 etc. like since bats in the Laos-China border area seem to have a lot of high risk coronavirusses that may jump to other hosts...

[url][/url] or ; A novel SARS-CoV-2 strain, the Delta variant (B.1.617.2), is spreading worldwide. The Delta variant has reportedly high infectivity and immune evasion potency. In June 2021, the World Health Organization categorized it as a variant of concern (VOC). 

Therefore, it is vital to develop tests that can exclusively identify the Delta variant. Here, we developed a rapid screening assay to detect characteristic mutations observed in the Delta variant using high-resolution melting (HRM) analysis. In this assay, we determined L452R and T478K, among which T478K is an identifier of the Delta variant since L452R is seen in other strains (Kappa and Epsilon variants). Additionally, nested PCR-based HRM analysis, which involved RT-PCR (1st PCR) and HRM analysis (2nd PCR), was developed to improve the specificity and sensitivity. 

Our method discriminated between the L452R mutant and wild-type L452. In addition, HRM analysis distinguished the T478K mutant from the wild-type T478. Seven clinical samples containing the Delta variant were successfully identified as L452R/T478K mutants. 

These results indicate that this HRM-based genotyping method can identify the Delta variant. This simple method should contribute to rapid identification of the Delta variant and the prevention of infection spread.

DJ If you can combine (fast) testing with screening to see what variant (variant in that variant) is infecting it may be a step forward. 

[url][/url] or ; Non-traditional methods of surveillance such as genomic epidemiology and wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) have also been leveraged during this pandemic. Genomic epidemiology uses high-throughput sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 genomes to inform local and international transmission events, as well as the diversity of circulating variants. WBE uses wastewater to analyse community spread, as it is known that SARS-CoV-2 is shed through bodily excretions. 

Since both symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals contribute to wastewater inputs, we hypothesized that the resultant pooled sample of population-wide excreta can provide a more comprehensive picture of SARS-CoV-2 genomic diversity circulating in a community than clinical testing and sequencing alone.


The wastewater-derived SARS-CoV-2 sequence data indicates there were more lineages circulating across the sampled communities than represented in the clinical-derived data. Principal coordinate analyses identified patterns in population structure based on genetic variation within the sequenced samples, with clear trends associated with increased diversity likely due to a higher number of infected individuals relative to the sampling dates.

 We demonstrate that genetic correlation analysis combined with SNVs analysis using wastewater sampling can provide a comprehensive snapshot of the SARS-CoV-2 genetic population structure circulating within a community, which might not be observed if relying solely on clinical cases.

DJ Waste water detection may be used both for asymptomatic spread monitoring and finding-very early-what variants are spreading. (In present day in most countries what variants of Delta are spreading...)

-Dr John Campbell [url][/url] or ; Drugs Shown to Inhibit SARS-CoV-2 in COVID-19 Disease: Comparative Basic and Clinical Pharmacology of Molnupiravir and Ivermectin 

There are still many nations where vaccines are not yet widely available, There is a gradual shift in focus, to antiviral drugs, 

Active treatment of new SARS-CoV-2 infections Post -vaccination breakthrough COVID-19 cases 

The two ways to get new drugs ;

1. Develop novel antiviral drugs for SARS-CoV-2  

2. Repurpose existing FDA -approved drugs to treat COVID-19 

Ivermectin is the most studied “repurposed” medication globally, in randomized clinical trials, retrospective studies and meta- analyses. 

Molnupiravir and Ivermectin Anti-SARS- CoV-2 Mechanisms, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics  ;

Molnupiravir is a broad spectrum antiviral agent against SARS- CoV-2, SARS-CoV, seasonal or pandemic influenza and MERS corona virus 

Ivermectin is an FDA-approved, WHO essential drug used as broad spectrum antiparasitic, antibiotic and which has demonstrated broad spectrum antiviral activity against RNA viruses, including HIV, Zika, MERS corona virus 

The FDA-approved drug ivermectin inhibits the replication of SARS-CoV-2 in vitro 

Ivermectin has the ability to accumulate in the lungs The anti-SARS-CoV-2 actions, both of molnupiravir and ivermectin, are dose and concentration dependent 

The cost for a package of 100 tablets of 3 mg ivermectin is $2.96. 

DJ If countries can not get vaccines, or vaccines turn out not to give the expected protection it is good there are medications available. But medications should always be used under medical supervision ! The problems with Ivermectin making headlines are caused by using the wrong dosages (or maybe fake-Ivermectin...criminals making money on internet sales ?).

-On population [url][/url] or DJ We did go from 1 billion to 2 billion people in 123 years 1804-1927. It did take us 33 years-1927 to 1960 to get to 3 billion. In 1974 we made it to 4 billion, 1987 5 billion, 1999 6 billion, 2011 7 billion and in 2023 we could go over 8 billion humans...

However most of human history there were les then 1 billion people. Life expectency did increase from 35 to 40 from pre-Roma times till 1900 is the general idea...

We now live in VERY ABNORMAL TIMES !!!! More then 8 times the number of humans we did see most of human history getting twice as old ! 

Climate collapse [url][/url] or like this pandemic is not seeing serious actions being taken to stop it. Multi resistent bacterial diseases, other kind of diseases may be just around the corner...

The idea we may see 10 billion people in the 2050's may be getting more and more unrealistic. Both diseases and climate collapse may see 1 billion people in the 2050's becoming more realistic. 

Exponential climate change will turn Earth into a Venus-like planet in some scenario's-maybe even before the 2050's...Again-those that did the least to cause the problem suffer the most while a rich elite-that did cause the problem-may get away with it, even make money out of it..."green deals" etc. 

In out of control capitalism scarcity means higher prices. So from a food crisis, a health crisis, a housing crisis, a water crisis, a sand (for building) crisis, an energy crisis is "making money"...We need governments to work for "average Joe", the public interests ! 

Otherwise only the elite will survive !

This is a political crisis !

-Music; California Dreaming - The Seekers (version) 1966 [url][/url] or 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Pixie View Drop Down
Admin Group
Admin Group

Joined: June 05 2006
Location: United States
Status: Offline
Points: 19248
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pixie Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 06 2021 at 2:56pm

Mystery fever in India identified as 2 separate pathogens as death toll tops 100

New Delhi — India's health authorities have solved the mystery of an illness that has infected thousands and left more than 100 people dead in the northern state of Uttar Pradesh. The fever that confounded experts for two weeks has been identified as two separate diseases, one caused by a bacteria and the other a virus. 

Scrub yphus is a bacterial fever spread through bites from chiggers, or larval mites, found in bushes. Symptoms include fever, headache and body aches, which later progress to rashes and inflammation of the nervous system which can cause confusion and even coma.

Dengue is a viral infection that spreads through the bites of infected mosquitoes. Patients often suffer from fever, muscle and joint pain. In severe cases, as has been seen in recent outbreaks in India, the blood platelet count of the patient drops significantly, leading to internal bleeding and possible death.

Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group

Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 60152
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 06 2021 at 10:14pm

Pixie, thanks for the info. A lot of diseases look like Covid-but are not Covid...better treatable with some luck...


Vaccines are a major difference ! Without vaccines Delta would have been killing maybe allready tens of millions...

[url][/url] or not a very good article but also linking Delta with the Variant of High Consequence...VOHC.

[url][/url] or variant of high consequence has clear evidence that prevention measures or medical countermeasures (MCMs) have significantly reduced effectiveness relative to previously circulating variants. 

DJ I think Delta is on its way to become a VOHC - We can not get it under control...

-Numbers [url][/url] or ;

Some trends; For cases US-11%, UK-2%, NL+5%, Israel -32% When I look at some regions; Russia cases +14%, Poland cases +52%, Germany cases -3%...Romania +48%, Ukraine +44%, Lithuania +28%, Finland +15%, Denmark +12%...

a may 11 article [url][/url] or ; A new preprint research paper posted to the medRxiv* server describes a new variant B.1.620, which appeared in Lithuania, and is now prevalent in several countries in Europe, as well as in central Africa.


Many Cameroon genomes uploaded to the GISAID (Global Initiative for Sharing All Influenza Data) database show surprising diversity. A few share mutations with B.1.620, with the earliest to appear being, possibly, synonymous mutations at 15324 and the spike mutation T1027I. These are also present in B.1.619.


The B.1.620 lineage also has several mutations in the N-terminal domain (NTD) of the spike protein, among which some remain of unknown impact. Of the rest, all partially resist neutralization by convalescent serum and NTD-targeting monoclonal antibodies. This may point to the origin of these mutations as immune-evading viral adaptations.

The S477N and E484K mutations in the RBD are found in other VOCs, but the B.1.620 does not carry either the N501Y or K417 mutations. Both the former mutations facilitate broad evasion of antibody-mediated neutralization. They also promote high-affinity binding of the RBD to its receptor, the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2).

Both are on the same peripheral loop at the binding interface of these two proteins, and their presence in combination improves the energetic profile favorably relative to the reference genome.

DJ Maybe a main factor in B.1.620 is its ability to mutate faster ? I am not an expert, just trying to "follow the story"...

A february 2021article [url][/url] or concern about the latest Finnish variant is that changes in the viral nucleoprotein may make this latest variant more difficult to detect with some PCR tests. As with each of the previous variants, TAC is actively investigating the impact of this latest variant on our testing regimen. Our medical/scientific advisory team are doing this in conjunction with the manufacturers and will report back at the earliest opportunity. In the meantime, there are two important points that this new variant highlights or reinforces. 

DJ Also in the Finnish news [url][/url] or

Last month the World Health Organization (WHO) designated Mu a "variant of interest." Now the strain has been detected in some 40 countries, including Finland.

DJ [url][/url] or ; a.o. ; 

  • The patient is a Taiwanese woman in her 60s who returned from the United States and already had 2 doses of the Pfizer vaccine. She had received the first dose of the Pfizer vaccine in the United States on July 5 and the second on July 26. When she returned to Taiwan on August 3, she did not report any symptoms, but a test administered at the airport revealed that she was positive for COVID-19.[15]
  • Guatemala reported its first two cases of the Mu variant in two female patients, aged 19 and 25. Both patients had no travel and vaccination history. The patients reside in the central department of Guatemala, where the capital, Guatemala City, is located.[16]
  • -
  • Two of the patients – a 19-year-old man and a 22-year-old woman had flown in from Colombia and were confirmed to have the Mu variant in early June, while the other, a 26-year-old woman, arrived from the United States. She was confirmed infected on July 24. Hong Kong also reported four new imported COVID-19 cases, all involving domestic workers who arrived from the Philippines.

See also [url][/url] or ; Some 55 countries reporting the Mu variant...Close to 10,000 cases detected-5,000 of them in the US. 

DJ So what is the point I am trying to make ? Finland had a test evading variant, Lithuania a B.1.620 variant possibly with increase of immunity evasion...Mu/B.1.621 is getting widespread...Denmark 7, Poland 6, Finland 3, Romania 1 case detected...

The general idea is that Delta/B.1.617 (possibly with [url][/url] or ) is the dominant global variant. Denmark is very good in sequencing, Finland does 10-15% of cases getting screened/sequenced...I doubt if Russia, Romania, Ukraine see much testing/sequencing...

Is there allready some other variant showing up ? Europe cases +8%, deaths +9%. Worldwide cases -7%, deaths -10%...

In Asia Turkey cases +5% may be linked to Eastern European cases going up...Some other countries in that region also see increases-Asia cases -13%, deaths -19%...

There is a problem in Europe....(and I have my doubts if it is Delta or a new variant...)

Worldometer deaths are at 4,840,904 - so still 160,000 under the 5 million some other sources claimed days ago...

-Flutrackers latest posts;

[url][/url] or Macau Coordination Center for Coordination of New Coronavirus Infections announced on October 5 that, in accordance with the Chief Executive's order No. 143/2021, in order to prevent the risk of the spread of the new crown virus in Macau, some entertainment venues in Macau will be closed from 0:00 on the 6th.

DJ China cases -20%, last week 255, this week 204...Allthough I do have some doubts on the Chinese claim of no CoViD deaths, asymptomatic cases under the China definition are "not cases"...I do think China also testing on a major scale for a/pre symptomatic spread, massive vaccinations, contact tracing...may be able to go for "Zero-CoViD"...

[url][/url] or as immune function—and its associated protection against severe COVID—tends to wane across our life span, it also varies along a continuum from person to person as a product of genetics. One evidently healthy 30-year-old, for example, could be more predisposed to getting very sick with COVID than another, even if they had the same set of medical conditions as listed on the CDC website. Scientists have been working out the details of these individual differences in immune function, but their findings haven’t yet been brought to bear on the pandemic in any widespread way, let alone considered guidance for the use of booster shots. Instead, as we struggle to set up rival groups of high- versus low-risk people, or immunocompromised versus immunocompetent, we tend to ignore all the gradations of vulnerability that might lie in between. Those who don’t clearly fit into the CDC’s official categories are left to guess at their personal levels of risk, counting their COVID antibodies “like calories” or grabbing booster shots of their own accord.

DJ Immune response has some basic genetics...part of it may be in the DNA...In general I think it is a very bad idea to "get the virus after vaccination as a booster for immunity"....

[url][/url] or has developed a clinical case definition of post COVID-19 condition by Delphi methodology that includes 12 domains, available for use in all settings. This first version was developed by patients, researchers and others, representing all WHO regions, with the understanding that the definition may change as new evidence emerges and our understanding of the consequences of COVID-19 continues to evolve.

Post COVID-19 condition occurs in individuals with a history of probable or confirmed SARS CoV-2 infection, usually 3 months from the onset of COVID-19 with symptoms and that last for at least 2 months and cannot be explained by an alternative diagnosis. Common symptoms include fatigue, shortness of breath, cognitive dysfunction but also others and generally have an impact on everyday functioning. Symptoms may be new onset following initial recovery from an acute COVID-19 episode or persist from the initial illness. Symptoms may also fluctuate or relapse over time.

(download option, 89l.3 kB)

DJ It is good to have some definitions...

[url][/url] or is set to vaccinate fur production animals against Covid. The Finnish Breeders' Association (FIFUR) will be vaccinating minks against coronavirus in the coming weeks, after being granted a conditional license by the Finnish Food Authority.

The vaccine covered by the license was developed by a research team at the University of Helsinki. In addition to the university's laboratories, the vaccine has been tested at a fur farm in Kannus, Central Ostrobothnia.

DJ Why run the risk ? Stop fur-farming now !!!

[url][/url] or Sells Federally Financed Covid Pill to U.S. for 40 Times What It Costs to Make
The Covid-19 treatment molnupiravir was developed using funding from the National Institutes of Health and the Department of Defense.
Sharon Lerner

October 5 2021, 4:22 p.m.

A five-day course of molnupiravir, the new medicine being hailed as a “huge advance” in the treatment of Covid-19, costs $17.74 to produce, according to a report issued last week by drug pricing experts at the Harvard School of Public Health and King’s College Hospital in London. Merck is charging the U.S. government $712 for the same amount of medicine, or 40 times the price.

DJ Totally unacceptable ! "Politics" is dealing with this pandemic as a bussiness/profit oppertunity NOT as a major healthcrisis...To many crazy people in politics ! To many doctors going for the money...

[url][/url] or Colorado-based health system says it is denying organ transplants to patients not vaccinated against the coronavirus in “almost all situations,” citing studies that show these patients are much more likely to die if they get covid-19.

The policy illustrates the growing costs of being unvaccinated and wades into deeply controversial territory — the use of immunization status to decide who gets limited medical care. The mere idea of prioritizing the vaccinated for rationed health resources has drawn intense backlash, as overwhelmingly unvaccinated covid-19 patients push some hospitals to adopt “crisis standards of care,” in which health systems can prioritize patients for scarce resources based largely on their likelihood of survival...

DJ There can be medical reasons for such a decision. 

[url][/url] or US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) analysis of Medicare data and county vaccination rates indicates that COVID-19 vaccinations administered from January until May 2021 were estimated to reduce COVID-19 infections by 265,000 and deaths by 39,000 among Medicare beneficiaries.

DJ January-may US 39,000 less people dying from Covid ...If you translate that statistic to a global one, worldwide, also taking Delta in the "model" vaccinations saved over 1 million lives ? 

Same link; COVID-19 incidence may be higher in irritable bowel disease patients

COVID-19 incidence was 4.7 per 1,000 person-years among irritable bowel disease (IBD) patients compared with 2.8 in the general population, according to a population-based study published in PLOS One yesterday.
The researchers looked at COVID-19 patients admitted to the only two hospitals covering the South-Limburg region in the Netherlands from Feb 27, 2020, to Jan 4, 2021. The total population was 597,184 people, and 4,980 were estimated to have IBD. Twenty IBD patients (0.4%) and 1,425 of the general population (0.24%) were hospitalized due to COVID-19, leading to an incidence rate ratio of 1.68 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.08 to 2.62, p = 0.019).
COVID-19 patients with IBD were more likely to be younger (median age, 63.0 years vs 72.0) and have a higher body mass index (BMI) (average, 24.4 vs 24.1 kg/m2), but both groups had similar rates of intensive care unit (ICU) admission (12.5% vs 15.7%, P = 1.00), mechanical ventilation (6.3% vs 11.2%, P = 1.00), and death (6.3% vs 21.8%, P = 0.22).
A post-hoc analysis found that BMI among ICU patients was significantly higher compared with non-ICU patients in both groups (mean, 25.8 vs 23.9), which the researchers say confirms that BMI as a risk factor for severe COVID-19.

DJ One could argue that IBD may be higher in the group of people with a higher BMI. Food digestion may be a problem resulting both in higher BMI and IBD...

[url][/url] or

Continuing a trend that began in August, global COVID-19 cases and deaths declined again last week, with activity decreasing in most regions except Europe, where infection levels stayed the same, the World Health Organization (WHO) said yesterday in its latest weekly snapshot of the pandemic.

Maria Van Kerkhove, PhD, the WHO's technical lead for COVID-19, said on Twitter that hard work is paying off, and vaccinations are significantly cutting hospitalizations and deaths. She added, however, that vaccine equity is desperately needed, and the world is not out of the woods yet.

"Keeping up with measures that suppress transmission are hard but even more critical now," she said, urging people to stay vigilant and not let their guard down.

Delta variant now in 192 countries

The biggest declines in cases last came from Africa, followed by the Middle East and Southeast Asia, the WHO said.

Regions reporting the highest incidence for both infections and deaths were the Americas and Europe. And the countries that reported the most cases last week were the United States, the United Kingdom, Turkey, Russia, and India.

Seven more countries reported their first Delta (B1617.2) cases, lifting the total to 192.

A mixed picture in the Americas

Regarding activity in the Americas, national data don't show the whole story, with spikes in local activity remaining worrisome, Carissa Etienne, MBBS, who leads the WHO's Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), said at a briefing today. She spotlighted southwestern Canada's peak hospitalization and intensive care unit (ICU) levels and overwhelmed hospitals in the US state of Alaska.

Etienne also said hospitalizations have jumped sharply in Belize, with Chile experiencing activity rises in urban centers that include Santiago and the port cities of Coquimbo and Antofagasta.

She urged countries to focus on closing vaccination gaps as quickly as possible, emphasizing that though seven countries and territories in the Americas have vaccinated more than 70% of their populations, many have yet to immunize 20%. "Jamaica, Nicaragua, and Haiti have yet to reach even 10% coverage," Etienne said.

More global headlines

  • Romania's government said yesterday that the country has no ICU beds left amid a surge in COVID-19 activity that resulted in more than 15,000 new cases yesterday, according to Reuters. Officials have suspended nonemergency surgery for a month and redeployed health workers to help manage rising hospitalizations. Romania has one of Europe's lowest vaccination levels.
  • Spanish officials yesterday approved third doses of the two mRNA vaccines for people ages 70 and older, according to Reuters. The boosters are authorized from 6 months after people receive their second shot, and the country will start administering them in late October.
  • The global total today topped 236 million cases, rising to 236,096,822 infections, according to the Johns Hopkins online dashboard. So far 4,822,055 people have died from COVID-19.

DJ Europe seeing an increase of cases while some other countries are doing much worse on both vaccinations and testing...There may be a "Delta-tunnelvision"...We need to increase testing and sequencing-I think we may be missing major developments again...The UK variant started in october 2020 but it did take to long before actions slowed down the spread. 

[url][/url] or ; MERS in Riyadh city: 58-year-old male in Riyadh city, Riyadh
Contact with camels: Yes
Case classification: Primary
Healthcare worker: No
Current status: Active
Date: September 19, 2021
Event#: 21-2055

DJ MERS is worse then SARS-2-both COrona VIral Diseases (CoViD). Not very likely to mix...would be a nightmare if it did...

[url][/url] or Canada has 148 reported Mu cases...???

[url][/url] or World Health Organization (WHO) says increased surveillance is urgently required to better understand what’s behind a recent spike in human cases of H5N6 bird flu in mainland China.

Only 48 people have been infected with H5N6 bird flu since the first confirmed case in 2014, but a third of those were reported in mainland China during the past 3 months alone. Half of all cases were reported during the past 12 months.

“Wider geographical surveillance in the China affected areas and nearby areas is urgently required to better understand the risk and the recent increase of spill over to humans,” a WHO spokesperson told BNO News...

...“Currently available epidemiologic and virologic evidence suggest that A(H5N6) influenza viruses have not acquired the ability of sustained transmission among humans, thus the likelihood of human-to-human spread is low,” WHO said.

The spokesperson added: “Due to the constantly evolving nature of influenza viruses, WHO continues to stress the importance of global surveillance to detect virological, epidemiological and clinical changes associated with circulating influenza viruses that may affect human (or animal) health and timely virus and information sharing for risk assessment.”

A study published by China’s Center for Disease Control in September reported several mutations in two cases of H5N6 and described the spread of the virus as a “serious threat” to the poultry industry and human health...

DJ One case so far in Laos...H5N6 is supposed to spread from birds into humans...not H2H human to human (yet). 

[url][/url] or

Background: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV2) has high mortality due to the widespread infection and the strong immune system reaction. Interleukins (ILs) are among the main immune factors contributing to the deterioration of the immune response and the formation of cytokine storms in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infections.
Introduction: This review article investigated the relationship between virus structure, risk factors, and patient plasma interleukin levels in infections caused by the coronavirus family.
Method: The keywords "interleukin," "coronavirus structure," "plasma," and "risk factors" were the main words searched to find a relationship among different interleukins, coronavirus structures, and risk factors in ISI, PUBMED, SCOPUS, and Google Scholar databases.
Result: Patients with high-risk conditions with independent panels of immune system markers are more susceptible to death caused by SARS-CoV2. IL-4, IL-10, and IL-15 are probably secreted at different levels in patients with coronavirus infections despite the similarity of inflammatory markers during coronavirus infections. SARS-CoV2 and SARS-CoV increase the secretion of IL-4 in the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infection, while it remains unchanged in MERS-CoV infection. MERS-CoV infection demonstrates increased IL-10 levels. However, IL-10 levels increase during SARS-CoV infection, and different levels are recorded in SARS-CoV2. MERS-CoV increases IL-15 secretion while its levels remain unchanged in SARS-CoV2.
Conclusion: In conclusion, the different structures of SARS-CoV2, such as length of spike or nonstructural proteins (NSPs), and susceptibility of patients based on their risk factors may lead to differences in immune marker secretion and pathogenicity. Therefore, identifying and controlling interleukin levels can play a significant role in controlling the symptoms and the development of individual-specific treatments.

DJ Comparing SARS-1, SARS-2, MERS (all Corona Viral Diseases) may learn us much on how the infection goes. By understanding that we may end up with better interventions. 

[url][/url] or latest ; The neutralizing antibody response to seasonal
(“cold”) coronaviruses is of transient duration, allowing the
occurrence of reinfections.[33] In contrast, the protective
antibody responses to SARS-CoV-1 and MERS lasted a
minimum of 2−3 years after recovery.

...half-life of anti-RBD antibody decline to be ∼36 days;135

...people with milder infections generate lower antibody titers
that decline more rapidly.[138]

... 8 months {followup study}.139

{ neutralizing IgG antibody titers against the
spike protein and RBD remained relatively stable, with only a