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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Now tracking the new emerging South Africa Omicron Variant

scenario's

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 22 2021 at 10:05pm

DJ, 

[url]https://twitter.com/Ammer_B[/url] or https://twitter.com/Ammer_BYou know what keeps me awake at night? The worry that there’s plenty of evidence on what we need to do to end this pandemic but people in power (whether in science or politics) don’t value it.

-Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table ; Global new reported cases for friday october 22; 458,950 trend +3%, deaths 7,805 trend +1%.

Top 3 for cases;   1-US 82,483 trend -14%,

                            2-UK 49,298 trend +19%,

                            3-Russia 37,141 trend +17%,

Top 3 for deaths; 1-US 1,610 trend 0%,

                            2-Russia 1,064 trend +5%,

                            3-India   666 trend +8%,

DJ-What is happening in India cases -10%, delayed reporting ? Worldwide now 97 countries report increase of cases, 74 report increase of deaths (with at #111 the first country reporting decrease of cases so 37 countries at (around) 0%...US reported 10,301 deaths last week, 10,294 this week...).

Europe cases +22%, deaths +13%, South America cases +9%, deaths +2%...with Brazil cases up +10%, deaths +11%, Chile cases +46%. New Zealand cases +49%.

When I look at twitter/flutracker etc. main reasons for again increasing numbers are lack of restrictions...Another factor may be 20-25% of hospital cases may be vaccinated. Some countries follow Israel in booster vaccinations (Israel cases -33%, deaths -3%). 

Yes it would be welcome if we did do much more for countries we keep poor. If the WHO is trying to "break" the Moderna vaccine in Africa so they can produce their own vaccines more then welcome ! It is beyond shocking that patents, profit, are more important then saving lives, trying to get out of this pandemic !!!

Yesterday I did write 1 million deaths per month could be on its way...that would mean 33,333 deaths per day...On january 20 this year we had a peak of 17,579 deaths on one day being reported. The Delta-India outbreak proberbly killed between 3 and 5 million people in India...it just was not reported...

The WHO came with an estimate so far this pandemic may have killed between 80,000 and 180,000 health care workers (HCW), in many countries these essential workers often try to get safer jobs, better pay, better hours, less risk...

"Saving the economy" is keeping us now in a pandemic for almost 2 years. And it would be very optimistic to believe we can get out of it in 2022...How ???

[url]https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2021/10/21/2059475/-The-U-K-may-be-seeing-a-new-variant-that-is-more-contagious-than-delta[/url] or https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2021/10/21/2059475/-The-U-K-may-be-seeing-a-new-variant-that-is-more-contagious-than-delta (Link from HoneyBee08-good info !) It is unclear what role the Delta-subvariant AY.4.2 is playing...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#%22Delta_plus%22_variant[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#%22Delta_plus%22_variant

 It has been suggested that AY.4.2 might be 10-15% more transmissible than the original Delta variant, but this would not lead to a large increase in cases.[51] In the UK it was reclassified as a "variant under investigation" (but not "of concern") in late October 2021.[52]

DJ, AY.4.2 proberbly is widespread around the globe...but limited testing/sequencing may mean it is not getting detected...Increasing vaccinations and boosters may help to limit the rise in cases however more restrictions-from travel to masks etc. are needed. 

The US is preparing vaccinations for children, booster vaccinations in the US also have started. If that is enough to stop rising cases future will tell. Also lots of other countries went for vaccinations 5y/o+ and boosters...but in the UK they did not start in time to stop the rise...And again R0 of Delta could be between 5 and 8-another 10/15% increase on top of an allready high R0 is bad news !

If the R0 of Delta is 2x that of Alfa/UK and that one was 2x the "original early 2020 version" Alfa R0 between 2 and 4 ? 2019-early version R0 between 1 and 2 ? So-just thinking-15% extra on top of an R0 of 8 would be a jump of 1,2...maybe less then the other "jumps" but still high ! 

Delta is creating a much larger viral load, it can be AY.4.2 is pushing that viral load even further ??? [url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator




If reports out of Russia are accurate and AY.4.2 is truly 10% more infectious than Delta, this demonstrates a scary trend. Small mutation with significant consequences.

DJ Here in NL "Delta is 100% of cases"...with limited info on subvariant AY.4.2 ....[url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.4.2&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.4.2&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected has 28 countries reporting AY.4.2. Romania did detect 31 of this subvariant-out of 4,131 samples. The UK did so far detect 4,344 out of 1,045,504 samples...Slovakia, Russia, Finland, South Africa, Lithuania, Brazil, India, Germany, Sweden all so far detected just 1...Israel is not on the list-in news thet did find 6 cases and detect 10 others in people arriving from the US (Dr.J.C. in his video on this variant). The US detected 28 cases out of 1,352,476 samples.

Global cases going up again-mixed with unclear reports on AY.4.2 should be alarming us !

-Flutrackers etc. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america-aa/south-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926096-gamma-the-most-dominant-covid-19-variant-in-st-vincent-most-deaths-are-women-photo-id-vaccination-card-being-implemented[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america-aa/south-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926096-gamma-the-most-dominant-covid-19-variant-in-st-vincent-most-deaths-are-women-photo-id-vaccination-card-being-implementedOctober 19, 2021
The Gamma variant of the coronavirus is now the most dominant in St Vincent and the Grenadines. In samples sent for testing by SVG, 24 have been identified as Gamma, 15 have been identified as Mu and six as the Delta variant.

Minister of Health St Clair Jimmy Prince says there has been an escalation on all fronts with more cases being identified, increased hospitalisations and more deaths.

St Vincent and the Grenadines currently has 1,643 active COVID-19 cases and has recorded 54 deaths.
...
As the health minister urged Vincentians to get vaccinated, he also stated: “Soon those of us who are vaccinated will have a photo ID vaccination card. It is in the making we are doing work on that and will soon have it on hand.”

...

The majority of active COVID-19 cases are in the Kingstown, Calliaqua, Pembroke and Northern Grenadines health districts. The majority of cases are being reported in the younger age group 45 years and under, however, in general, all age groups are affected at this time.

In terms of deaths, Bobb says the current spike began in September and the majority of persons who have died are women....

DJ Indicating some regions still do not have Delta as dominant variant.  With very limited testing and sequencing we may be as good as blind.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918022-uk-covid-19-variant-delta-trend-us-issues-level-4-travel-advisory-do-not-travel-until-november?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918022-uk-covid-19-variant-delta-trend-us-issues-level-4-travel-advisory-do-not-travel-until-november?view=stream ; UK trends cases +18,1% at 50,861...deaths +15,8% at 129, hospital cases +19,1% at 1,051 in just one day...testing 91,403 +1,4% (if over 50,000 new cases are reported out of the 90,000+ tests positivity rate is alarming !!!).

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream

Today, CDC Director Rochelle P. Walensky, M.D., M.P.H., endorsed the CDC Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices’ (ACIP) recommendation for a booster shot of COVID-19 vaccines in certain populations. The Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA) authorizationexternal icon and CDC’s recommendation for use are important steps forward as we work to stay ahead of the virus and keep Americans safe.

For individuals who received a Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna COVID-19 vaccine, the following groups are eligible for a booster shot at 6 months or more after their initial series:

For the nearly 15 million people who got the Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine, booster shots are also recommended for those who are 18 and older and who were vaccinated two or more months ago.

There are now booster recommendations for all three available COVID-19 vaccines in the United States. Eligible individuals may choose which vaccine they receive as a booster dose. Some people may have a preference for the vaccine type that they originally received and others, may prefer to get a different booster. CDC’s recommendations now allow for this type of mix and match dosing for booster shots.

Millions of people are newly eligible to receive a booster shot and will benefit from additional protection. However, today’s action should not distract from the critical work of ensuring that unvaccinated people take the first step and get an initial COVID-19 vaccine. More than 65 million Americans remain unvaccinated, leaving themselves – and their children, families, loved ones, and communities– vulnerable.

Available data right now show that all three of the COVID-19 vaccines approved or authorized in the United States continue to be highly effective in reducing risk of severe disease, hospitalization, and death, even against the widely circulating Delta variant. Vaccination remains the best way to protect yourself and reduce the spread of the virus and help prevent new variants from emerging.

DJ Belgium will be offering boosters [url]https://www.brusselstimes.com/belgium/190285/belgian-health-minister-wants-pharmacists-to-administer-vaccines/[/url] or https://www.brusselstimes.com/belgium/190285/belgian-health-minister-wants-pharmacists-to-administer-vaccines/ for "all that want one..."

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/926070-nat-comp-sci-climatic-signatures-in-the-different-covid-19-pandemic-waves-across-both-hemispheres[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/926070-nat-comp-sci-climatic-signatures-in-the-different-covid-19-pandemic-waves-across-both-hemispheres

Although COVID first came to light during the winter months of 2019-2020, and reached its first peak almost a year later (Dec 2021), its intensity plunged in January of this year, only to reach new heights in the spring. After another lull, the summer of 2021 saw a rise nearly equal to last winter (see epi chart above).


Pandemic viruses - particularly during their first year or two, when community immunity to a novel virus is low or non-existent - can pose an all-season threat.

Four years ago, in PLoS Comp. Bio.: Spring & Early Summer Most Likely Time For A Pandemic, we looked at evidence that most flu pandemics have emerged when influenza prevalence is low, even though they just about always become seasonal viruses themselves.


While I think there's been a general expectation that COVID would become a seasonal virus - much like influenza - one that is most prevalent during colder/dryer winter seasons, its behavior until now has raised questions.

Yesterday researchers from Barcelona's Institute for Global Health published a paper in Nature Computational Science that finds `robust' statistical evidence for COVID being a seasonal virus, and provides further evidence of its `airborne' nature.


All of which has implications - not only for this winter - but potentially for winters to come.

DJ I think comparing CoViD with flu-even in statistics can get misleading. We could learn from CoViD outbreaks in farm animals. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/926066-3-lions-at-indianapolis-zoo-test-positive-for-delta-variant[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/926066-3-lions-at-indianapolis-zoo-test-positive-for-delta-variant ; Three African lions at the Indianapolis Zoo have tested positive for the Delta variant of COVID-19 and have been taken off exhibit, officials said Thursday.

The lions — females Zuri and Sukari, and male Enzi — tested positive on Oct. 14 after the females showed respiratory and digestive symptoms, officials said. The two young lions are doing well. The older female, Zuri, continues to be treated for respiratory symptoms, officials said...

DJ Yet another outbreak in lions...does Delta (or subvariants of it) spread more easy in non-human hosts ? 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america-aa/south-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926065-increasing-number-of-covid-19-infections-trigger-alarms-in-chile[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america-aa/south-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926065-increasing-number-of-covid-19-infections-trigger-alarms-in-chile ; Chile's Health Ministry (Minsal) Thursday reported 1,842 new cases of COVID-19, the highest number recorded in the last three months, marking a 53% rise compared to last week and 68% against the last two weeks.

With the 1,842 infections in the last 24 hours, the total number infected people amounted to more than 1.67 million since the beginning of the pandemic, while deaths have reached 37,640 after 12 new fatalities.

Thursday's figures were also the highest since the 1,859 cases reported Jul. 22.

The positivity rate of PCR tests nationwide currently stands at 2.7%. In the Santiago Metropolitan Region it is 4%, while other 10 regions have yielded results below or around 2%.

According to El Mercurio and despite Chile's advanced vaccination plan, the country has the highest number of active cases per million inhabitants in South America, with a rate of 67 new daily positives per million inhabitants.

Brazil comes second with 50 new cases a day, Uruguay 46 and Bolivia 31...

DJ More info on (sub)variants would be welcome ! [url]https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemia_de_COVID-19_en_Chile[/url] or https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemia_de_COVID-19_en_Chile also not offering info on variants...Outbreak only 1 AY.4.2 case in Brazil for all of South America.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/925920-ukraine-coronavirus-deaths-highest-daily-toll-since-beginning-of-pandemic[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/925920-ukraine-coronavirus-deaths-highest-daily-toll-since-beginning-of-pandemic ; The Ministry of Health in Ukraine, the country with the lowest rate of coronavirus vaccination in Europe, reported on Tuesday that 538 people had died of Covid-19 in the country over the previous 24 hours. It was the highest daily death toll since the beginning of the pandemic.

The country’s health officials are struggling with two interconnected and vexing problems: widespread vaccine skepticism, and illegal schemes selling fake Covid credentials that people use to get around restrictions intended to slow the virus’ spread, like a new rule taking effect Thursday that requires a vaccination certificate or negative test to board a train.

DJ [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Ukraine[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Ukraine or that site in Russian offers no info on variants...

[url]https://twitter.com/chrischirp[/url] or https://twitter.com/chrischirp ; Paramedics say they are now regularly holding 300 calls at a time when no ambulances are available

and Though the latest phase of the pandemic in England has been driven by (unvaccinated) children, the virus has spread to older age groups, where immunity is waning. 3/4 of the places in this plot are in the SW, which was victim to the unaccredited lab scam. Corruption costs lives.

DJ No need to fear the UK may see a healthcrisis on its way...it is allready there !

-Dr. John Campbell on "Mix and match vaccines" [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gz0I_v-ihsE[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gz0I_v-ihsE ; Sajid Javid, cases could rise to 100,000 per day this winter Sage October report https://assets.publishing.service.gov...

Risk posed by further viral evolution, that becomes dominant globally is a very real possibility Therefore need for: Capacity to monitor for variants Conduct predictive vaccinology 

Winter and into 2022 Hospital admissions above the level seen in January 2021 are increasingly unlikely 

Uncertainties, behaviour change and waning immunity Co-circulation and co-infection of SARS-CoV-2 with Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) and influenza 

DJ I think Dr.J.C. again being "over optimistic". My perspective for this pandemic is that is getting worse by the day...with to little steps (NPI) to stop it...again I hope I am wrong !

-Music; Bee Gees - 1968 - Ie Gotta Get A Mesage To You [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KYkrW7YpRpg[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KYkrW7YpRpg 

My message would be-get vaccinated/booster if you can but act like it offers only very limited protection...There are more then just CoViD-virusses out there ! Stay safe !


                            


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 23 2021 at 11:40pm

Internet problems....

Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table and [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.4.2&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.4.2&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected seem to indicate a link between the AY.4.2 variant and strong increase in cases. 

The link is very clear for Europe (cases +23%), however much less clear for South America (cases +13%)...Another remark; South America is moving into summer...

The AY.4.2 sub variant of Delta also has been detected in Malawi-Africa, cases +13% there-while most of Africa see cases decreasing. In Brazil cases-again-+19% with also limited detection of AY.4.2 ....

Global numbers cases 374,274, deaths 5,735...UK had 44,985 cases (weekly trend +16%), Russia reported 1,075 deaths (+5%).

Some European trends; Czechia cases +118%, Poland +92%, Hungary +88%, Belgium +73%, Croatia +70%, Austria +53%, Denmark +49%, NL +43% indicating a very serious increase of cases. 

In South America cases +138 in Paraguay, +37% in Chile, +16% in Argentina and in Brazil-where a few AY4.2 variants have been detected +19%.

The AY4.2 variant may be underestimated...

-Flutrackers etc.

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GodsuSLuy5w[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GodsuSLuy5w China Global TV Network (CGTN) in september 2019 Italy may have had CoViD 19 circulating...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america-aa/south-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926096-gamma-the-most-dominant-covid-19-variant-in-st-vincent-most-deaths-are-women-photo-id-vaccination-card-being-implemented[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america-aa/south-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926096-gamma-the-most-dominant-covid-19-variant-in-st-vincent-most-deaths-are-women-photo-id-vaccination-card-being-implemented latest; October 23, 2021
...
In view of the confirmed presence of the Delta, Mu and Gamma variants in the community and the significant increase in the number of new infections, transmission, severe COVID-19 disease and deaths, strict enforcement and compliance with all protocols and recommendations by
everyone is strongly recommended...

DJ So Mu and Gamma still active in some places.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/emerging-diseases-other-health-threats-alphabetical-i-thru-z/other-aa/926113-%E2%80%98flesh-eating%E2%80%99-std-that-causes-%E2%80%98beefy-red%E2%80%99-sores-is-spreading-in-uk[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/emerging-diseases-other-health-threats-alphabetical-i-thru-z/other-aa/926113-%E2%80%98flesh-eating%E2%80%99-std-that-causes-%E2%80%98beefy-red%E2%80%99-sores-is-spreading-in-ukA once-rare flesh-eating sexually transmitted disease that causes “beefy red” ulcers is spreading across the UK, according to a report Friday.

Cases of donovanosis — which causes thick sores that damage genital tissue — have been steadily growing in the region since 2016, and cases are expected to rise, according to data and experts cited by Birmingham Live.

“Figures suggest that donovanosis — which was previously thought to be restricted to places including India, Brazil and New Guinea — is becoming more common on these shores,” Dr. Datta, of MyHealthCare Clinic in London, told the outlet.

Health officials reported 30 cases of the STD in the UK in 2019, but more infections in the past two years could pose a public-health risk, she warned...

DJ Enough other healthrisks..some of them may increase because of this pandemic. 

Limited news...

-Music; [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9IWxocGm21U[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9IWxocGm21U Bread - Aubrey ...enjoy !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 24 2021 at 3:03am

Regarding donovanosis : symptoms can appear 12 weeks after infection.   One report said it was mostly spread by unprotected sex.  

If people won't wear masks I doubt they would start using protection during sex, or the other alternative of sticking to only one partner.


more details at https://www.menshealth.com/uk/health/sexual-health/a38011607/donovanosis-symptoms-treatment-prognosis/






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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 25 2021 at 9:59pm

Sticking to one partner may be the healthy choice for many reasons....That does not mean sticking to a damaging relationship...As a society we maybe would need more ways to intervene in unhealthy relations...simply because some people for some reason can not take enough care themselves. 

DJ [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/political/striking-workers-decry-suicide-shifts-pandemic-burnout-takes-toll[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/political/striking-workers-decry-suicide-shifts-pandemic-burnout-takes-toll In most of Europe a 40 hour working week is seen as healthy...Broken shifts-working 2x 4 hours in care, education etc. do mean less people want that kind of jobs...

A bad relationship=or no relation at all, a bad job do increase stress and with that the health risks...

-Numbers; 335,244 new cases, 5,292 new deaths reported monday reflecting (most) low US testing sunday. The sunday numbers reflecting saterday; 355,450 cases, 5,066 deaths being reported. Last trend cases +3%, deaths +0,6%. Low weekend numbers underline statistics at best can give an indication...

Some remarks on those numbers ; What is happening with India deaths going up 75% ? 

Another idea on realistic total number of deaths. In such a list India would be at #1 with very likely several million CoViD deaths-not the 455,000+ in the present statistics. India claiming 326 deaths per million is unrealistic...If you would make that 3,260 dpm -go for 4,550,000 deaths that may be more realistic...

Brazil reported 605,884 deaths - 2,824 deaths per million. Peru has at present 5,959 deaths per million-would Brazil be doing that much better then Peru ? If you double the dpm/deaths you end up at 5,648 dpm -1,2 million+ deaths...proberbly also closer to a real number...

Russia most likely is also underreporting. With 1,587 deaths per million for Russia, dpm for France at 1,795, Italy at 2,185 and Spain 1,864 and media claims of 600,000 excess deaths+. The official number stands at 231,669 Russian deaths (dying within 4 weeks after a positive test...also the UK is using that bizarre criteria).  So maybe Russian deaths per million 3,000+ ? The outcome of both limited vaccinations and restrictions...not taking CoViD serious...

So in a top 3 I think India would be at #1, Brazil at #2 the US would still end up at #3 with limited vaccinations and restrictions-not doing that much better then Russia...

Russia still would be #4, Mexico #5 with very likely over 300,000 CoViD deaths...

The global dpm stands at 637,6...when 10,000 is 1% of 1 million that would mean 0,06376% of the global population so far died in this pandemic...official number getting close to 5 million...Maybe five times that number would be more realistic...

-Flutrackers (yesterday 14 posts-no real news, with also these weekend numbers I ran out of what to write...)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/926198-why-was-it-so-hard-to-raise-the-alarm-on-the-coronavirus[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/926198-why-was-it-so-hard-to-raise-the-alarm-on-the-coronavirusA bit before midnight on January 20, a Harvard epidemiologist named Eric Feigl-Ding posted a long, terrifying Twitter thread mostly summarizing, and in a few places contextualizing, a new, pre-publication paper on the infectiousness of the novel coronavirus that had, at the time, forced Wuhan into a total lockdown but had not yet been detected outside of China. The context he added was, mostly, alarmism.

“Holy mother of god,” the thread began, “the new coronavirus is a 3.8!!!” That figure referred to what’s called the reproduction number, or “R0,” of a disease: how many people would be infected by a single sick person. “I really hate to be the epidemiologist who has to admit this, but we are potentially faced with … possibly an unchecked pandemic that the world has not seen since the 1918 Spanish Influenza. Let’s hope it doesn’t reach that level but we now live in the modern world 🌎 with faster ✈️+ 🚞 than 1918. @WHO and @CDCgovneeds to declare public health emergency ASAP!”

The thread has since been deleted, though you can still read a preserved version of it here. It was, for many Americans, if not the first time they had heard of coronavirus, perhaps the first time they had seen a global alarm raised over it. And in doing so, it produced what is by now a sort of predictable backlash: other scientists and science journalists taking issue with it, en masse, pointing out that the paper had not yet been published; that Feigl-Ding’s comparison to the infection rate of SARS was inaccurate; that most estimates of the R0 number were now lower than 3.8. Feigl-Ding’s tweets got more readers than those of his critics’. But those credentialed in epidemiology and public health were much more likely to see the criticism as sober and responsible, Feigl-Ding himself as an irresponsible alarmist, and the impulse to raise alarm a deeply reckless one. An Atlantic story about it was headlined “How to Misinform Yourself About the Coronavirus.”

Two months later, we are, inarguably, in the midst of a global pandemic. ...

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020...ronavirus.html

__________________________________________________ ________________________________

Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing

Epidemiologist & health economist.
Senior Fellow, @FAScientists.
Former 16 yrs @Harvard. Environment, health & social justice.
COVID updates since Jan 2020.

Jan. 25, 2020 3 min read

HOLY MOTHER OF GOD- the new coronavirus is a 3.8!!! How bad is that reproductive R0 value? It is thermonuclear pandemic level bad - never seen an actual virality coefficient outside of Twitter in my entire career. I’m not exaggerating... #WuhanCoronovirus #CoronavirusOutbreak

2/ “We estimate the basic reproduction number of the infection (R_0) to be 3.8 (95% confidence interval, 3.6-4.0), indicating that 72-75% of transmissions must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop increasing...

3/ ... We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8-5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified, and by 21 January a total of 11,341 people (prediction interval, 9,217-14,245) had been infected in Wuhan since the start of the year. Should the epidemic continue unabated in Wuhan....

4/ we predict the epidemic in Wuhan will be ...

https://threader.app/thread/1220919589623803905

DJ Just like in climate collapse "shoot the messenger"  we do not want to hear the real story...And we still do not want to hear it...that is why we are in a worsening pandemic now...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/926197-molnupiravir-%E2%80%93-the-new-covid-antiviral-named-after-thor%E2%80%99s-hammer[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/926197-molnupiravir-%E2%80%93-the-new-covid-antiviral-named-after-thor%E2%80%99s-hammer ; On October 1st, Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics announced that molnupiravir (MK-4482, EIDD-2801), an investigational oral antiviral medicine, significantly reduced the risk of hospitalization or death at a planned interim analysis of the Phase 3 trial in at risk, non-hospitalized adult patients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19. They report at the interim analysis that “molnupiravir reduced the risk of hospitalization or death by approximately 50%; 7.3% of patients who received molnupiravir were either hospitalized or died through Day 29 following randomization (28/385), compared with 14.1% of placebo-treated patients (53/377); p=0.0012.” Formal publication of the data is pending.

Molnupiravir was named by Kaleio in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. The primary mechanism of action of molnupiravir is induction of lethal mutagenesis by incorporation of the 5’-monophosphate metabolite into the viral RNA genome. Because molnupiravir is resistant to the proofreading exoribonuclease encoded by coronaviruses, it is able to prevent viral propagation via viral error catastrophe, for which no defined nomenclature exists in the INN/USAN system.

https://www.idstewardship.com/molnup...-thors-hammer/

DJ When you look at the HIV/AIDS pandemic one may see a lot of similarities. Big Pharma not willing to give up copy rights-poor countries that suffer the most (for greed-profit) find ways around the Big Pharma power block...Many smaller countries are also working on own vaccines, medications etc...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/926196-new-hhs-actions-add-to-biden-administration-efforts-to-increase-access-to-easy-to-use-over-the-counter-covid-19-tests[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/926196-new-hhs-actions-add-to-biden-administration-efforts-to-increase-access-to-easy-to-use-over-the-counter-covid-19-tests ; FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
October 25, 2021


NIH to Invest $70 Million from American Rescue Plan to Accelerate Test Developers Progress Through Regulatory Authorization Process

FDA Updates Regulatory Path Which Could Lower Costs, Make Tests More Available

FDA Authorizes Additional Over-the-Counter COVID-19 Test

https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2021/...-19-tests.html

DJ Covid-tests are easy to get, cheap (2,5 US $ per test ? If you buy 5 in a box it may be 9 US$) in NL...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/viral-mechanism/926193-untimely-tgf%CE%B2-responses-in-covid-19-limit-antiviral-functions-of-nk-cells[/url] orhttps://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/viral-mechanism/926193-untimely-tgf%CE%B2-responses-in-covid-19-limit-antiviral-functions-of-nk-cells; We are providing an unedited version of this manuscript to give early access to its findings. Before final publication, the manuscript will undergo further editing. Please note there may be errors present which affect the content, and all legal disclaimers apply.

Accepted14 October 2021
Published: 25 October 2021

DOI https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-04142-6

Witkowski, M., Tizian, C., Ferreira-Gomes, M. et al.

Abstract

SARS-CoV-2 is a single-stranded RNA virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Given its acute and often self-limiting course, components of the innate immune system are likely central in controlling virus replication thereby determining clinical outcome. 

Natural killer (NK) cells are innate lymphocytes with notable activity against a broad range of viruses, including RNA viruses1,2. NK cell function may be altered during COVID-19 despite increased representation of NK cells with an activated and ‘adaptive’ phenotype3,4

Here we show that viral load decline in COVID-19 correlates with NK cell status and that NK cells can control SARS-CoV-2 replication by recognizing infected target cells. 

In severe COVID-19, NK cells show remarkable defects in virus control, cytokine production and cell-mediated cytotoxicity despite high expression of cytotoxic effector molecules. 

Single-cell RNA-sequencing (scRNA-seq) of NK cells along the time course of the entire COVID-19 disease spectrum reveals a unique gene expression signature. 

Transcriptional networks of interferon-driven NK cell activation are superimposed by a dominant TGFβ response signature with reduced expression of genes related to cell-cell adhesion, granule exocytosis and cell-mediated cytotoxicity. 

In severe COVID-19, serum levels of TGFβ peak during the first 2 weeks of infection, and serum obtained from these patients profoundly inhibits NK cell function in a TGFβ-dependent manner. 

Our data reveal that untimely production of TGFβ is a hallmark of severe COVID-19 and may inhibit NK cell function and early virus control.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s415..._reference.pdf

DJ In severe CoViD the immune system itself is "ill" and not able to defend enough.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/926192-us-unveils-new-coronavirus-rules-for-international-travel[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/926192-us-unveils-new-coronavirus-rules-for-international-travel ; The vast majority of adult travelers who want to visit the US will need to be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 starting November 8.

All visitors older than two years, regardless of vaccination status, will also need to present a negative coronavirus test taken within three days of travel, according to an order signed by US President Joe Biden on Monday.

Airlines will have to collect contact information on passengers to help with contact tracing and store it for 30 days.

Children and teenagers under 18 will be exempt from vaccination travel rules.

... “It is in the interests of the United States to move away from the country-by-country restrictions previously applied during the COVID-19 pandemic and to adopt an air travel policy that relies primarily on vaccination to advance the safe resumption of international air travel to the United States,” said Biden’s order.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/...s-travel-rules

DJ Here in NL during a choir concert 20 of the 150 people-all fully vaccinated-did get CoViD (with mild symptoms-the real number may be even higher). Israel has a rule vaccination not older then 180 days-makes at least some more sense...but do we need international air travel now ? Can we not limit that for essential family visits or so ? 

Virus/variants travel for free-still will do so in vaccinated people !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926190-china-to-start-vaccinating-children-to-age-3-as-cases-spread[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926190-china-to-start-vaccinating-children-to-age-3-as-cases-spread ; Children as young as 3 will start receiving COVID-19 vaccines in China, where 76% of the population has been fully vaccinated and authorities are maintaining a zero-tolerance policy toward outbreaks.

China becomes one of the very few countries in the world to start vaccinating children that young against the virus. Cuba, for one, has begun a vaccine drive for children as young as 2. The U.S. and many European countries allow COVID-19 shots down to age 12, though the U.S. is moving quickly toward opening vaccinations to 5- to 11-year-olds.

Local city and provincial level governments in at least five Chinese provinces issued notices in recent days announcing that children ages 3 to 11 will be required to get their vaccinations.

The expansion of the vaccination campaign comes as parts of China take new clampdown measures to try to stamp out small outbreaks.

https://apnews.com/article/coronavir...c6f99745b3664b

DJ; We do vaccinate young children for lots of diseases. Babies born today most often will have their mothers vaccinated-proberbly may get some protection that way. But again STOP THE SPREAD !!!

Here in NL we have seen "beer-fests" with massive number of people getting infected-often with vaccinations...Vaccinations still help-in most cases-against severe disease-but it may not do enough against getting infected ! (And there is discussion on the viral load from a vaccinated asymptomatic spreader compared to unvaccinated ones...maybe the difference is very small...)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926189-namibia-to-suspend-use-of-russian-sputnik-v-covid-19-vaccine-%E2%80%93-ministry[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926189-namibia-to-suspend-use-of-russian-sputnik-v-covid-19-vaccine-%E2%80%93-ministry ; Namibia will suspend its rollout of Russia’s Sputnik V COVID-19 vaccine, its health ministry said on Saturday, days after the drugs regulator in neighbouring South Africa flagged concerns about its safety for people at risk of HIV.

The Gamaleya Research Institute, which developed Sputnik V, said Namibia’s decision was not based on any scientific evidence or research.

The South African Health Products Regulatory Authority (SAHPRA) decided not to approve an emergency use application for Sputnik V for now because, it said, some studies suggested that administration of vaccines using the Adenovirus Type 5 vector – which Sputnik V does – was associated with higher susceptibility to HIV in men.

Namibia’s health ministry said in a statement that the decision to discontinue use of the Russian vaccine was “out of (an) abundance of caution that men (who) received Sputnik V may be at higher risk of contracting HIV,” adding that it had taken SAHPRA’s decision into account.

Sputnik V remains one of the safest and most efficient vaccines against COVID-19 in use globally, the Gamaleya institute told Reuters. It said more than 250 clinical trials and 75 international publications confirmed the safety of vaccines and medicines based on human adenovirus vectors...

DJ You do NOT get HIV via Sputnik-V !!! HIV goes via other ways-if Sputnik vaccines would limit protection against other infections it may be related to the body building up immunity-but you would find it also in other vaccines...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/926177-cidrap-us-hospitals-took-huge-unequal-financial-hit-during-covid-studies-show[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/926177-cidrap-us-hospitals-took-huge-unequal-financial-hit-during-covid-studies-show ; Three new studies describe how the COVID-19 pandemic cratered the finances of many US hospitals, one finding that most federal relief funds went to the already best-resourced facilities and the other two showing the devastating monetary effects of delaying or canceling surgeries.

DJ Who pays for healthcare ? At the end we do ! Either via tax-state run, via insurance or direct from your own wallet...In my idea the benefit of state run healthcare could be getting the best care for the money...But where there is money there always will be people trying to misuse the system...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream latest; 
Well, Publix gave me the booster shot! lol

I felt nothing. So far no reaction at all. It is the 1/2 dose of Moderna.

I really had no choice. I am high risk. I think the best strategy for me is to layer protections.

THE VACCINE BOOSTER IS NOT GOING TO SAVE ME. It is only ONE TOOL.

As I said before, I use maskslimit my inside exposures, and generally use social distancing as a rule. I also, carry hand sanitizer, and gargle with a mouthwash after outside exposure to people if they come into my comfort sphere. If I need to visit a doctor's office, I have a jazzy pair of goggles I wear. I really don't care how dumb I look to others. In fact, one doctor thanked me.

I also listen to my instincts. I was going to shop at the busy grocery store but getting the shot took so long that I felt I had been in the store long enough. About 1/2 of the shoppers did not have any mask on. No one was wearing an N95. I had been in there about 45 minutes so I said - screw it, and left. Nothing solid. Just a feeling.

The problem we now have is that all of the millions of people who got the vaccines earlier this year have waning antibodies of some degree. They don't know if they are protected anymore, or not. It remains to be seen what length and strength of immunity COVID survivors have. Do mild cases have any antibodies?

In the end, you need to evaluate your personal risk and act on it. People have different ideas of what to do and I respect that.

DJ Even with vaccinations as long as the virus is out there it would be wise to wear a mask, limit risks etc. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/926168-doctors-are-often-unaware-of-the-only-treatment-for-early-covid-19[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/926168-doctors-are-often-unaware-of-the-only-treatment-for-early-covid-19There is a treatment for early-stage Covid-19.

By this point, Arana was so weak she couldn't walk on her own. Her husband, a school bus driver and custodian, got her out of bed and drove her to UCSF Fresno, where she received four shots of the treatment, called monoclonal antibodies.

"The next day I could feel a difference. Two days later I could get out of bed and clean the house and feed my children," Arana said. "I really do think the antibodies saved my life."

An investigation by CNN shows Arana is not alone in her challenge to find monoclonal antibodies. Many patients who qualify for the drugs say their doctors never mentioned them, even though it has been nearly a year since antibodies were first authorized by the US Food and Drug Administration, they're the only treatment for early Covid, and studies have shown they can dramatically reduce the risk of hospitalization and death.

The federal government has made efforts to educate doctors, including a presentation by Dr. Anthony Fauci at a White House briefing in August, but still problems have persisted...

DJ Good communications are essential in any crisis !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926124-netherlands-covid-hospital-total-passes-700-to-tie-11-week-high-another-5-700-infections[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926124-netherlands-covid-hospital-total-passes-700-to-tie-11-week-high-another-5-700-infections latest; The Dutch government may impose new coronavirus restrictions to reduce pressure on hospitals struggling to deal with a swelling number of COVID-19 patients, Health Minister Hugo de Jonge said on Monday.

Coronavirus infections in the Netherlands have been rising for a month and reached their highest level since July in recent days, after most social distancing measures were dropped in late September...

DJ Dropping social distancing measures went against any medical advice...now this "government" may be thinking of more restrictions for the unvaccinated...We have 81%+ of 12 y/o+ vaccinated...but a lot of spread came from under 12 y/o at schools...not being vaccinated...There are problems with infections in poor urban area's more or less at the same level as in christian orthodox area's "bible belt"...Booster vaccines were planned for spring 2022...

Maybe vaccinating (offering it) to 5y/o+ , boosters for all six months after last vaccination, more ad random testing may help...And bring back social distancing, face masks etc ! See also [url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/10/25/dutch-government-considering-new-coronavirus-restrictions[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/10/25/dutch-government-considering-new-coronavirus-restrictions 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/new-zealand-ad/922030-new-zealand-battling-delta-variant?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/new-zealand-ad/922030-new-zealand-battling-delta-variant?view=stream DJ Very sad to see New Zealand reporting another 111 new cases, trends +75% (I would not be surprised if AY.4.2 is also spreading in NZ...)

A look at twitter [url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculatorLoss of cells lining the walls of capillaries in the brain makes them unable to cary blood—harming the brain. What is left are called "string vessels" and are found in increased numbers in Alzheimer's and Parkinson's 3/ https://content.iospress.com/articles/journal-of-alzheimers-disease/jad00332 https://content.iospress.com/articles/journal-of-parkinsons-disease/jpd140454

DJ Long CoViD with damage all over the body may see healthissues getting worse later on...A 20 y/o that by the time he/she is 40 may have the body of a 60 y/o...

[url]https://twitter.com/drericding[/url] or https://twitter.com/drericdingKids 5-18 currently have the highest rates of COVID in Rhode Island. While many adults are staying safe with remote work options, students are eating in crowded cafeterias in groups of hundreds at a time. 

DJ Young age groups believe they face less risks-but because the older age groups did get vaccinated statistics point in another direction...more and more young people face serious health issues !

#LongCovid is also wrecking our doctors and nurses. Listen to this doctor who got infected in April 2020 and been hospitalized multiple times and now debilitated. This is the price of endemic mass infection COVID.

DJ We may be running out of healthcare workers ! Due to burn-out, disease, better paid-lower risk other jobs...

-Dr. John Campbell-two video's [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RerKFYCVFVY[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RerKFYCVFVY on declining vaccine efficacy (=waning immunity...)

Asking for aspirating is seen as strange...even when for asking things go wrong...first injecting then taking back the plunger is not the job...it is a training issue ! 

Vaccine protection declined by mid-August 2021 Decreasing from 91.9% in March Down to 53.9%

Declines were greatest for the Janssen vaccine followed by Pfizer–BioNTech and Moderna. 

Specifically, for protection against infection

Janssen March, 92% August, 3%  !!!!!!

Moderna March, 91% August, 64% 

Pfizer March, 95% August, 50% 

Delta variant as the primary determinant of infection It is not yet clear whether reductions in vaccine protection against infection will translate into similar reductions in protection against hospitalization and death. 

Vaccines remain the most important tool to prevent infection, severe illness, and death, but vaccines should be accompanied by additional measures, including masking, hand washing, physical distancing, and other public health interventions 

DJ Booster vaccines are needed but ALSO NPI/restrictions (and yes this may increasingly mean lockdowns !!! The less we act now the worse the problem is getting !!! AY.4.2 may be a far bigger problem-maybe also for the vaccinated !!!

Another video [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YkmXrHNEn5g[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YkmXrHNEn5g "Endemic equilibrium cometh"; Somehow Dr.J.C. claims UK cases did go down...I did not see that in Worldometer statistics [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/ 

Some sort of "balance" "endemic" "live with it" nonsense I think is NOT science ! We need to prevent CoViD cases as much as we can to avoid newer variants that evade immunity even better then AY4.2 may allready be doing...

Music; The Bee Gees - I Started A Joke - 1968 [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jrg1UAixGaM[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jrg1UAixGaM good clip !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 26 2021 at 12:53am

Good point about not forcing people to stay in abusive relationships.  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cn65 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 26 2021 at 1:11am

The problem you have is the the world was "sold" on the vax's being the answer.

If we now find that actually they are not, and from what I hear is seems that they are not 'Vax's' according to the pre 2021 definition of a vax they are more a theraputic treatment, then the world has two problems

1. any further claim that 'something' is now the answer is going to be ignored

2. What else "IS" the answer?


If the answer is that the we must maintain social distancing and mask wearing for the rest of time let alone ban foreign travel then you can forget it - it is simply not going to happen.   That in turn means that, just like in ancient pandemics where there were no medical facilities yet invented where the weak, the vulnerable, the old, and the genetically suspecptible die from the virus and the rest who can fight it off continue that is exactly what is going to happen now.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 26 2021 at 5:18am

I don't know what bill of sale you were sold in your neck of the woods, cn65, but the one I bought was that the vaccine would save lives.  It has, except if one has refused to be vaccinated.

The last statistics I saw were along the lines of 97% of Covid deaths, 95% of hospitalizations and 94% of the overall cases in the last four or five months were among the unvaccinated.  That means 3%, 5% and 6%, respectively, were vaccinated.

I don't know what answer you were looking for, but the promise I was given delivered.

But, see for yourself - https://www.medpagetoday.com/special-reports/exclusives/95119

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DJ,

If vaccine protection [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RerKFYCVFVY&t=477s[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RerKFYCVFVY&t=477s Dr. John Campbell ; Specifically, for protection against infection Janssen March, 92% August, 3% Moderna March, 91% August, 64% Pfizer March, 95% August, 50% Delta variant as the primary determinant of infection

then there is a problem ! 

[url]https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.13.21264966v1[/url] or https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.13.21264966v1

   Abstract

National data on COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough infections is inadequate but urgently needed to determine U.S. policy during the emergence of the Delta variant. We address this gap by comparing SARS CoV-2 infection by vaccination status from February 1, 2021 to August 13, 2021 in the Veterans Health Administration, covering 2.7% of the U.S. population. Vaccine protection declined by mid-August 2021, decreasing from 91.9% in March to 53.9% (p<0.01, n=619,755). Declines were greatest for the Janssen vaccine followed by Pfizer–BioNTech and Moderna. Patterns of breakthrough infection over time were consistent by age, despite rolling vaccine eligibility, implicating the Delta variant as the primary determinant of infection. Findings support continued efforts to increase vaccination and an immediate, national return to additional layers of protection against infection.

DJ There have been warnings over and over you can NOT get out of this pandemic with only vaccines-yet that turned out to be the choice lots of governments de facto did. 

The out come a.o. is the AY.4.2 Delta sub-variant....[url]https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ/status/1452900753035698176/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ/status/1452900753035698176/photo/1 showing mortality with VUI-21oct-1 is 0,72% other Delta 0,54% with limited numbers 62 VUI-21oct-1/AY.4.2 and 3,813 Delta patients. 

Yes vaccines make a difference in severe illness but vaccines did NOT stop this pandemic...and by that we may see immunity evading new variants (AY.4.2 could be a forewarning ). 

The answer will be better vaccines if possible....otherwise "people have to get a lot less social" ....In the short term the virus is getting more mean it looks like not milder ! 

In the best scenario's-with massive vaccinations & boosters we only can buy time before the virus will get problematic again....

Just my opinion...I am not an expert (or neutral, objective etc...) 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 26 2021 at 3:47pm

The thing is  vaccine will protect from this variant,and maybe a few mutations on,

However booster shots every year will become part of life as is the flu vaccine which we all take for granted......

Vaccines for those countries that can afford it , are the way out of the pandemic,

Unfortunately many countries cannot possibly vaccinated all their citizens, therefore mutations/variants will never end ,the only hope is a mutation that is relatively harmless comes forth,

Can't see that happening though.....

Partially vaccinated people are the  danger here ,as the virus will become more resistant......

Not rocket science......

Just virology......

Take care all 😷😉💉

P.S.DJ,you are correct the vaccine didn't stop the pandemic,it was well on its way before we got a vaccine off the drawing board.

galls me to say , thankfully warp speed promoted by trump ,got the vaccine we have now...

Which his supporters are refusing to take 🤔🤔🤔


Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 26 2021 at 10:01pm

DJ, What I like from a title as "scenario's" it is very elastic-you can discuss a lot of things...relate them to this pandemic to get a different view from another corner...

Relations do matter in times of crises. It is also a testcase for relations. I do not agree with the idea that "a good relation is the outcome of hard work (some even include "sacrifice" in it)". A relation "works" or it does not ! If it is a "hard job" maybe it is not such a good relation....

People-like most other animals-like company within certain limits. In this pandemic a partner, children/pets can continu some sort of social life when the "outdoor activity" is ending up in a parking space....

People in a relation are believed-studies indicate-to have less stress, live healthier and longer...A good relation can prevent some unwise actions in a good scenario...But some people may be happier with a cat or dog then with another fellow human...

Since people get older relations have to last longer. If people die at age 80+ it may take a strong relation that can deal with 60 years sharing eachothers live...But I think live is about sharing, caring...maybe that gives some meaning to our presence on this globe...

 Another item on this forum-also in scenario's is vaccines, politics, US.....how Americans mix up vaccines, masks with politics to again fight eachother....I believe Trump is double vaccinated, he paid for vaccine development (without limiting profits-cheaper vaccines, non-profit, would reach more people-a very welcome effect during a pandemic !) yet still a lot of his followers are anti CoViD vaccines while vaccinations are not new...quite old ! Masks became political statements in the US....

Portugal managed to keep politics out of vaccinations...and has one of the highest levels 90%+ 12y/o+ and yes it matters ! But cases go up 17% in Portugal-just a reality check....Since 90% vaccination giving 80% protection (at best) on a population of about 10 million ends up (80% of 9 million=) 7,2 million being protected still 2,8 million not getting enough protection...

So maybe science can help....

Big Pharma never claimed vaccines protected 100% against infections. With variants having a R0 of 5 to 8+ you would need "perfect matching vaccines"...well, the vaccines being developed where made to match the early variant of CoViD....not the new variants...

With in most countries (even the US !!!) in the "rich West" having 50%+ of the adults vaccinated-YES-a certain percentage of people testing positive, getting ill, on ICU or even dying from CoViD will be in the vaccinated group...it is statistics...

Certainly in older age groups immunity does not do such a great job, lots of people do not have such a good immunity to begin with...Vaccine immunity is getting weaker in months not years...Natural immunity turned out not to survive variants...lots of people (Brazil, Iran studies) did get infected more then once...So the hope-like with SARS-1-of long lasting "natural" immunity also has gone... 

So what is waiting ? 

[url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.4.2&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.4.2&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected , [url]https://cov-lineages.org/lineage.html?lineage=AY.4.2[/url] or https://cov-lineages.org/lineage.html?lineage=AY.4.2 Delta+ AY.4.2 is waiting...DJ-I see correlations between AY.4.2 detections and explosive increase of cases in the weekly trends...

[url]https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/news-events/early-influenza-cases-indicate-possibility-severe-upcoming-season-elderly[/url] or https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/news-events/early-influenza-cases-indicate-possibility-severe-upcoming-season-elderly A-H3N2 (good in ignoring flu-vaccines) is "happy to join the party"....

So it may be hard to distinguish between flu-deaths and CoViD deaths...lots of people may have both....

On top of that I notice an increase of news on CoViD in (Zoo)animals...giving an increase of new variants...

Healthcare-still ignored and mistreated by politics-(they do not sponsor politicians) is at breaking point. To put it in hard, but clear words...over 1% of global healthcare workers proberbly allready did die in this pandemic !!! A lot of experienced doctors, nurses are dead !!! It will take more then 20 years experience to replace them...

Public jobs did become high risk low pay jobs...underlining this pandemic is part of a far bigger problem !!!

What kind of civilization, what sort of society do we want if we do not want to pay a decent income for public duties, public jobs ? Are we that blind ????

Do we no longer need healthcare, education, police ? For that matter is every supermarket worker "replaceable" ? Are we-as civilization-not getting "very much out of balance " ????

There is a lot of similarity between this pandemic and climate "change" (lets call a house fire a "changing proces" ) with the UNEP indicating the present plans to keep global (IPEC numbers, allready unrealistic) temperature rise below 1,5C would indicate a temperature rise of 2,7c...

Humans may have to redefine themselves !!!

I am a human...more then I am Dutch, a gender, a skincolour, a political choice...If we want to survive better start thinking !!

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 26 2021 at 10:57pm

DJ, 

-Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ; During the weekend numbers stayed below the 400,000 mark-mainly because of a lack of testing in several countries. 

The numbers for monday-showing up in tuesday results (october 26) show 427,713 new cases, trend +3% (worldwide that is !). Reported deaths 7,552 trend +0,7%...for both numbers we may see ourselve as very lucky if the real number is "only" twice as high...

Massive, ad random testing is proberbly only done in China. Putting a city of 4 million in lockdown when they detect 6 new cases...Why do we keep failing to test ? We proberbly miss as good as all asymptomatic and most mild cases...here in NL less then 50% of the population would go for a (public) test when they have a cold...

If you do not test you do not find cases. If you have no case you have no samples. If you have no samples you do not have any idea on the variants. And that by choice after allmost 2 years in this pandemic....

Top 3 for cases; US 69,634 (-14%), UK 40,954 (0%), Russia 36,446 (+12%) all with at best limited testing...

Top 3 for deaths; US still at #1 with 1,451 people dying from CoVid trend -19%. Russia is getting ready to become number one with 1,106 deaths reported, trend +7%. Ukraine at #3 with 734 deaths-trend +56%...

A note India trend for deaths is +105%, "only" reporting 584 deaths yesterday...NL reporting deaths trend is +60%...but in real numbers I hope "we" can stay out of a global top ten...

Still looking at "developing countries" - the countries we keep poor (like underpaying public work etc..it is by choice !) in statistics seem to do a decent job...Of course if you do net test you will not find cases, if you do not sequence you will not find variants...

Africa cases keep going down -24%, deaths -3%...South Africa cases -34%, however deaths +28%...Egypt cases +1%, deaths allready +8%. Nigeria cases +28%, deaths -44%, Kenya cases -26%, deaths -21%...

What part of these number paint a realistic picture and what part is useless ? If the trends would at least offer some indications it would be more then welcome !

South America cases +9%, deaths -7%. Chile cases +29%, Colombia +15%, Ecuador +14%, Brazil +12%, Argentina, Bolivia +11%...with limited sequencing most likely Delta (and Delta+/AY.4.2) is spreading ? 

Asia cases -8%, deaths +9% (most the outcome of India +105% increase in deaths). China cases increase with 98%...but in real numbers 269 this week, last week 136 cases an average western town is doing worse....

Maldives +46%, Afghanistan +34% (how much testing is left there ? I hope there is still some basic healthcare for the people !),  Armenia +33%, Qatar +33%, Nepal +28%, Jordan, Laos +13%, Taiwan +9%, Vietnam +8%...

Indonesia -26%, Philippines -30%, Bangladesh also -30%, Pakistan -31%, Israel -38%, Japan-42%...

On vaccinations many countries following Israeli ideas of vaccinating younger age groups and booster vaccines...But it is getting pointless if that does not used to drive the R0 close to 0,1....

So the choice we now face "living with the virus" (as if there are no variants...and living is a choice...) wich in fact means letting this pandemic getting worse or-finally-deal with it ! 

We can NOT survive "climate change" , neither can we survive "living with this mutating virus"...We give people who stand in the way of solving problems much better pay then those in public jobs...

-Flutrackers etc. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/926419-virology-dynamics-of-sars-cov-2-variants-of-concern-voc-in-bangladesh-during-the-first-half-of-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/926419-virology-dynamics-of-sars-cov-2-variants-of-concern-voc-in-bangladesh-during-the-first-half-of-2021 ; Abstract

Bangladesh is the second-worst-affected country in South Asia by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The aim of this study is to examine genome sequences from Bangladesh from January 2021 to June 2021 in order to monitor the SARS-CoV-2 VOC and the clades or lineages that are prevalent in the country. 

Within the study timeframe, at least eight Nextstrain clades were found: 20A, 20B, 20C, 20H (Beta, V2), 20I (Alpha, V1), 20 J (Gamma, V3), 21A (Delta), 21D (Eta), and six GISAID clades: four main (G, GH, GR, GRY) and two minors (GV, O) with an introduction of VOC B.1.1.7/Alpha, B.1.351/Beta and B.1.617.2/Delta. 

The introduction and recent occurrence of VOCs with substantial alterations in the receptor binding site of spike protein (K417 N, K417T, L452R, T478K, E484K, S494P, N501Y) are of particular importance. 

Specifically, VOC B.1.617.2/Delta has surpassed all prior VOCs in Bangladesh, posing a challenge to the existing disease management.

DJ Outbreak has 6 AY.4.2 cases in Bangladesh...it is not "just one virus" but  a "fast growing family of virusses"!

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926364-russia-many-people-who-became-infected-after-vaccination-with-sputnik-v-actually-bought-a-qr-code-%E2%80%93-rossiyskaya-gazeta[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926364-russia-many-people-who-became-infected-after-vaccination-with-sputnik-v-actually-bought-a-qr-code-%E2%80%93-rossiyskaya-gazetaOctober 25, 2021
Many seriously ill COVID-19, who say that they became infected, despite being vaccinated with Sputnik V, actually bought a certificate, said the head of the Gamaleya Research Center for Electrochemistry, Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences Alexander Gintsburg. The scientist even named the proportion of such patients – 80%, and explained that it is not difficult to identify the falsely vaccinated, since it is possible to conduct an analysis for the presence of drug markers in them.

“If the allegedly vaccinated Sputnik V gets seriously ill, as the data shows, these are people who, unfortunately, took advantage of the fake certificates they bought. We see that people are missing markers [к вакцине] in 80% of cases, “the scientist told reporters...

DJ In some countries the "vaccine passport" is a QR-code (on a phone or in paper) without proper ID check this simply does not work...(you can download QR codes from the internet...)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926363-israeli-physicians-scientists-advise-fda-of-%E2%80%98severe-concerns%E2%80%99-regarding-reliability-and-legality-of-official-israeli-covid-vaccine-data[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926363-israeli-physicians-scientists-advise-fda-of-%E2%80%98severe-concerns%E2%80%99-regarding-reliability-and-legality-of-official-israeli-covid-vaccine-dataAn independent Israeli group of physicians, lawyers, scientists, and researchers called the Professional Ethics Front today advised the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) regarding the upcoming FDA discussion on administering COVID-19 vaccines to children aged 5-11, expressing “severe concerns” regarding the reliability and legality of official Israeli COVID vaccine data.

The letter is signed by Dr. Sorin Schapira, MBA, Eitan Marchand, Dr. Moran Kronenberg, Dr. Sergei Bianover, Ph.D, Prof. Alon Warburg, Dr. Boaz Ilan, Prof. Eti Einhorn, Dr. Daniel Mishori, Adv. Orly Yaron, Prof. Natti Ronel, Dr. Ety Elisha, Adv. Dana Kovalskiy, Adv. Galit Polatchek, Adv. Yoram Morim, Dr. Yaffa Shir-Raz, Adv. Yossi Bitton, Adv. Valentina Nelin, Dr. Ilan Makover, MD, Osnat Navon, Dr. Itsik Vorgaft, and Dr. Yael Stein, MD.

“We are aware that the state of Israel is perceived as ‘the world laboratory’ regarding the safety and efficacy of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine, as reflected by statements made by Dr. Albert Bourla, Dr. Anthony Fauci, and other senior figures in leading health authorities throughout the world,” the letter reads. “It is therefore our understanding that the data and information coming from Israel play a crucial role in critical decision-making processes in regards to COVID-19 vaccination policies. We thus see it of utmost importance to convey a message of warning and raise our major concerns regarding potential flaws in the reliability of the Israeli data with respect to the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine, as well as many significant legal and ethical violations that accompany the data collection processes.”...

DJ; Israel may end up as testcase for strategies...if things do not work out Israel pays a price for being in the frontline.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/internet-communication-aa/926347-federal-gov-pays-university-750k-to-create-tool-that-warns-journalists-against-publishing-polarizing-content[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/internet-communication-aa/926347-federal-gov-pays-university-750k-to-create-tool-that-warns-journalists-against-publishing-polarizing-content ; The National Science Foundation (NSF) provided a $750,000 grant to Temple University researchers for developing a product that tracks local journalism cycles, which is part of their new "Trust & Authenticity in Communication Systems" initiative.

The “America's Fourth Estate at Risk: A System for Mapping the (Local) Journalism Life Cycle to Rebuild the Nation's News Trust” project aims to create a data-based tool that informs journalists when publishing content might result in "negative unintended outcomes" like "the triggering of uncivil, polarizing discourse, audience misinterpretation, the production of misinformation, and the perpetuation of false narratives."

The researchers hope to help journalists measure the long-term communication impact of stories, extending beyond existing metrics such as initial reactions, likes, and shares.

In an interview with Campus Reform, grant principal investigator and Temple University professor Eduard Dragut said the team will “use natural language processing algorithms along with social networking tools to mine the communities where [misinformation] may happen.”

“You can imagine that each news article is usually, or actually almost all the time, accompanied by user comments and reactions on Twitter. One goal of the project is to retrieve those and then use natural language processing tools or algorithms to mine and recommend to some users [that] this space of talking, this set of tweets, which may lead to a set of people, like a sub-community, where this article is used for wrong reasons,” he said...

DJ Is this NOT media-control ? Do journalists not have a duty to "produce" news that has a link to reality ? 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/926345-cidrap-who-advisors-say-covid-19-pandemic-far-from-over[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/926345-cidrap-who-advisors-say-covid-19-pandemic-far-from-over ; After reviewing the latest COVID-19 developments last week, the World Health Organization (WHO) emergency committee said the pandemic is far from over, though countries are making progress in rolling out vaccines and treatments.
The group of outside advisors met on Oct 22 by video conference for the ninth time and unanimously agreed that the situation still warrants a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC), which was declared on Jan 30, 2020. The group typically meets every 3 months or more often as needed.

Concerns remain about Africa's access

In a statement released today on its deliberations, the group raised concerns about Africa's challenges in accessing enough vaccines, tests, and treatments and in monitoring COVID-19 spread, given that many countries have gaps in lab capacity and genomic sequencing.
The committee also said there's a critical need for all countries to use all tools at their disposal to ease the pandemic's many impacts.
Committee members modified and extended most of their temporary recommendations but added a new one that supports uptake of WHO-recommended treatments by addressing access and affordability.

DJ; Vaccines-at best-are part of the solution ! Why international airtravel did restart-spreading variants also via vaccinated people ? Why most countries test-at best-only those with symptoms while we know (since 2020-CDC) a major part of the spread (CDC 59%) goes without symptoms...Why did it take so long to start (thinking of) vaccinating children ? Boostershots ? International strategy ? 

If statistics give an indication the hardest hit countries may NOT be in Africa...India, Brazil, US, Russia, UK...In the list of deaths per million South Africa ends up at #52 as the first African country...Are the statistics/testing that bad ? Or does Africa show it is better in dealing with healthissues with limited means...since they have been doing so for decades ! 

Maybe we could learn something from Africa ? What is the real situation in Africa with CoViD ?

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/genetics-aa/926291-pathogens-emerging-mutations-in-nsp1-of-sars-cov-2-and-their-effect-on-the-structural-stability[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/genetics-aa/926291-pathogens-emerging-mutations-in-nsp1-of-sars-cov-2-and-their-effect-on-the-structural-stability ; Abstract

The genome of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) encodes 16 non-structural (Nsp) and 4 structural proteins. 

Among the Nsps, Nsp1 inhibits host gene expression and also evades the immune system. This protein has been proposed as a target for vaccine development and also for drug design. 

Owing to its important role, the current study aimed to identify mutations in Nsp1 and their effect on protein stability and flexibility. 

This is the first comprehensive study in which 295,000 complete genomes have been screened for mutations after alignment with the Wuhan-Hu-1 reference genome (Accession NC_045512), using the CoVsurver app. 

The sequences harbored 933 mutations in the entire coding region of Nsp1. The most frequently occurring mutation in the 180-amino-acid Nsp1 protein was R24C (n = 1122), followed by D75E (n = 890), D48G (n = 881), H110Y (n = 860), and D144A (n = 648). 

Among the 933 non-synonymous mutations, 529 exhibited a destabilizing effect. Similarly, a gain in flexibility was observed in 542 mutations. The majority of the most frequent mutations were detected in the loop regions. 

These findings imply that Nsp1 mutations might be useful to exploit SARS-CoV-2's pathogenicity. Genomic sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 on a regular basis will further assist in analyzing variations among the drug targets and to test the diagnostic accuracy. 

This wide range of mutations and their effect on Nsp1's stability may have some consequences for the host's innate immune response to SARS-CoV-2 infection and also for the vaccines' efficacy. 

Based on this mutational information, geographically strain-specific drugs, vaccines, and antibody combinations could be a useful strategy against SARS-CoV-2 infection.

DJ In "war terms" know your enemy...In pandemic terms know the virus...the weak spots where vaccines may have a function...We need much more research-much less risk denial !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/immunity-aa/926290-pathogens-persistence-of-antibody-responses-to-the-sars-cov-2-in-dialysis-patients-and-renal-transplant-recipients-recovered-from-covid-19[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/immunity-aa/926290-pathogens-persistence-of-antibody-responses-to-the-sars-cov-2-in-dialysis-patients-and-renal-transplant-recipients-recovered-from-covid-19 ; Abstract

Nephropathic subjects with impaired immune responses show dramatically high infection rates of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This work evaluated the ability to acquire and maintain protective antibodies over time in 26 hemodialysis patients and 21 kidney transplant recipients. The subjects were followed-up through quantitative determination of circulating SARS-CoV-2 S1/S2 IgG and neutralizing antibodies in the 6-month period after clinical and laboratory recovery. A group of 143 healthcare workers with no underlying chronic pathologies or renal diseases recovered from COVID was also evaluated. In both dialysis and transplanted patients, antibody titers reached a zenith around the 3rd month, and then a decline occurred on average between the 270th and 300th day. Immunocompromised patients who lost antibodies around the 6th month were more common than non-renal subjects, although the difference was not significant (38.5% vs. 26.6%). Considering the decay of antibody levels below the positivity threshold (15 AU/mL) as "failure", a progressive loss of immunisation was found in the overall population starting 6 months after recovery. A longer overall antibody persistence was observed in severe forms of COVID-19 (p = 0.0183), but within each group, given the small number of patients, the difference was not significant (dialysis: p = 0.0702; transplant: p = 0.1899). These data suggest that immunocompromised renal patients recovered from COVID-19 have weakened and heterogeneous humoral responses that tend to decay over time. 

Despite interindividual variability, an association emerged between antibody persistence and clinical severity, similar to the subjects with preserved immune function.

DJ It did take more time but this group of patients did manage to get rid of the virus within a year...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/926256-environ-res-the-global-transmission-of-new-coronavirus-variants[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/926256-environ-res-the-global-transmission-of-new-coronavirus-variants ; Abstract

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused tremendous losses to the world. This study addresses the impact and diffusion of the five major new coronavirus variants namely Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Eta, and Delta lineage. 

The results of this study indicate that Africa and Europe will be affected by new coronavirus variants the most compared with other continents. The comparative analysis indicates that vaccination can contain the spread of the virus in most of the continent, and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as restriction on gatherings and close public transport, will effectively curb the pandemic, especially in densely populated continents.

 According to our Global Prediction System of COVID-19 Pandemic, the diffusion of delta lineage in the US shows seasonal oscillation characteristics, and the first wave will occur in October 2021, with the record of 323,360, and followed by a small resurgence in April 2022, with the record of 184,196, while the second wave will reach to 232,622 cases in October 2022. 

Our study will raise the awareness of new coronavirus variants among the public, and will help the governments make appropriate directives to cope with the new coronavirus variants.

DJ (Article [url]https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0013935121015413?via%3Dihub[/url] or https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0013935121015413?via%3Dihub  Lets get real-it may be optimistic to think we will totally get rid of CoViD in 2022...It would be more then welcome if we can get better vaccines, treatments...but so far the progress there was undone by "reopenings to save the economy insanity"....

This pandemic is a political problem. Without major political changes we can NOT survive !!!

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/immunity-aa/926456-vaccines-basel-reinfections-in-covid-19-patients-impact-of-virus-genetic-variability-and-host-immunity[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/immunity-aa/926456-vaccines-basel-reinfections-in-covid-19-patients-impact-of-virus-genetic-variability-and-host-immunity ;

DJ Outdated article in my opinion....It would be welcome if natural immunity limited reinfections...but it does not ! Also some "reinfections" turned out to be the virus never left the body-became reactivated after some negative test in the upper airways...

Twitters [url]https://twitter.com/Ammer_B[/url] or https://twitter.com/Ammer_BSome scientists have played a questionable role during this pandemic. What worries me most is the clinging to seniority rather then sometimes having a content based discussion. Which if I can humbly remind ourselves is the fundament of science.

DJ Disagreeing with your boss has consequences-also in science jobs. (Certainly when you turn out to be right often and your boss is missing the point...)

[url]https://twitter.com/drericding[/url] or https://twitter.com/drericding ; So is this 110 million doses at most? Africa needs *at the very least* 1.6. billion doses of vaccines. Drops in a very large bucket. This is why countries have been pushing for access to vaccine recipes to produce their own, rather than rely on Big Pharma + western donation.

DJ What excuse the "rich countries"have to keep poor countries poor and starving ? "We" have better weapons ? (therefore more civilized ?). Like the west did help IS against Russia and China the west puts corrupt leaders in power in poor countries and then claim corruption is the reason for poverty...while western mines exploit natural resources..now facing China trying to do the same under Chinese terms...

[url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator..advanced age is associated with age-related degradation of the immune system (immunosenescence) & dysregulated inflammatory responses (inflammaging)... aged individuals are likely to be considerably less able than adult macaques to compensate for immune deficiencies...

DJ A younger population has better "natural" protection & defenses. 




Als antwoord op  en 
And the sad part is we have remnants of old solid & knowledgeable public-health institutions (created at the beginning of the 20th century & excelled post-WWII) that could have (once, a long time ago) implemented pandemic play-book procedures.

And The other deeply depressing part is the mindset of Western scientists Who cling to vaccination as the only solution because they cannot conceive of anything but a technological solution But mass testing is also a technological solution, yet it was never seriously considered...

DJ A conflict between vaccinated and unvaccinated does NOT help ! If you want-as a government-ALL people get vaccinated make a law to do so ! Otherwise come up with better plans to get the maximum protection ! Stop playing crazy games with millions of lives !

-Dr. John Campbell on"low vitamin D and increased mortality" [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HwNgKJ-7YWQ[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HwNgKJ-7YWQ ;

Vitamin D, lower levels, common in patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD) Study of patients with existing CVD 

N = 37,079 patients with CVD from the UK Biobank study 

Among 37,079 patients with CVD at baseline, 57.5% were vitamin D deficient Deficient, 25[OH]D less than 50 nmol/L (less than 20ng/ml)  

Median follow-up of 11.7 years Deaths that occurred =  6,319 total  

2,161 deaths from CVD 2,230 deaths from cancer 623 deaths from respiratory disease 1,305 other-cause deaths 

That is deaths went up as vitamin D levels went down (P-non-linearity less than 0.01) 

Among CVD patients with vitamin D deficiency For every 10 nmol/L increment in serum 25(OH)D concentrations, There was an associated 12% reduced risk for all-cause mortality There was an associated 9% reduced risk for CVD mortality. 

In patients with vitamin D deficiency Per 10 nmol/L increase in serum 25(OH)D levels, was associated with a lower risk of mortality from (aHR]; 95% CI) 

DJ You can get supplements to increase your health, decrease healthrisks...Of course good food, NOT driving a car (or going on a plane) does help not only you but all of us ! 

-Music ; I started with relations, may well end with it; Love Story - Andy Williams - 1970 [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lrZ2ibWOgkM[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lrZ2ibWOgkM 

"SHE FILLS MY HEART WITH VERY SPECIAL THINGS

 WITH ANGELS SONGS, WITH WILD IMAGININGS 

SHE FILLS MY SOUL WITH SO MUCH LOVE 

THAT ANYWHERE I GO, I'M NEVER LONELY 

WITH HER AROUND, WHO COULD BE LONELY 

I REACH FOR HER HAND IT'S ALWAYS THERE"


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 27 2021 at 9:59pm

DJ, 

-Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ show "we are not all in the same boat"....Global cases +3%, deaths +0,7%. But those numbers are influenced by a still strong increase of cases/deaths in Europe +20%/+14%, South America cases +9% and India deaths +105% are also major factors pushing numbers up...

One explanation could be "to little restrictions" and in part UK, NL, Belgium that may be part of the story. To little vaccinations is the case in Eastern Europe, Russia, Poland, Romania often also with hardly serious restrictions...A third factor is the AY.4.2 Delta sub-variant more infectious (=higher R0) and more deathly...A fourth factor may be waning immunity-lots of most vulnarables did get vaccinated early this year...Proberbly a not yet very clear fifth factor may be QR-codes to be used as "vaccine passports" to a certain % being false...It will be a small group but it allows the virus to spread.

US cases have been going down now for some time-even with limited restrictions/vaccinations. From "modern western countries" the US is now around the worst vaccinated country...also restrictions are-at best-limited. So why do cases in the US go down -14%, deaths -19% ? Is Europe earlier in the UK AY.4.2 variant ? Does the US in general-still have better restrictions then some parts of Europe ? 

What I read is in some parts of the US there is mask use in schools, shops...far from perfect but proberbly still better then in NL, Belgium where masks are supposed to be used in public transport...hospitals made their own mask rules...

South America is moving into summer ! Chile was one of the better vaccinated countries, in Brazil vaccinations are supposed to be increasing...South America cases +9%, deaths -7%....(indicating a new wave...AY.4.2 ???) Chile cases +29%, deaths +39% (deaths higher then cases could indicate there is still an old wave...

Then Asia...India cases -1% (and deaths +105% with a lot of under reporting...). Is AY.4.2 starting another wave in India after it just was in the last phase of "other Delta subvariants" (Delta started in India peak april this year proberbly allready killing millions...).

China is seeing cases +98% (last week 136, this week 269) but is managing-with massive testing, isolating, contact tracing, to keep numbers down...If I compare China's numbers with that of New Zealand (5 million people) cases +49%, last week 449, this week 669 I wonder "are we realy fighting this pandemic"? 

Here in NL (cases +51%, deaths +60%)-and in many other European countries, with both flu and winter on its way healthcare is "preparing for worst case scenario's". Allready discussion on keeping room-also on ICU-for non-CoViD care so other delayed care (hearth, cancer, transplants) can go on-to keep the damage there at least within limits...

The excess deaths numbers are going up in many places because a lot of people that would have had care if there was no pandemic end up having to wait to long. This pandemic is starting to result in increased non-CoViD deaths because ill people visit a doctor to late...get not the needed care...

DJ-My impression is;

1-AY.4.2 may be starting yet another wave-allready in Europe, India/parts of Asia, South America...proberbly allready in Oceania (Papua New Guinea has had high numbers may now be allready facing AY.4.2). Other parts of the globe will follow...

2-Season effect is very limited at best. South America may see cases explode again ! 

3-Natural immunity may protect against reinfection by the same variant. Brazil, Iran studies indicate it is NOT effective enough against new variants...so people may get CoViD over and over again allready (just like with cold-corona virus but far more destructive). Natural protection 6-8 months in the best scenario ? 

4-Vaccine protection needs boosters...maybe even more often then with the flu-vaccine. Older/vulnarable people may not build that good immunity protection. In some people with immunity problems (booster)vaccines may only offer "very limited extra protection"...(Maybe better then nothing-but there you have to balance the risks...living in a buble, restricting to save contacts, offers better protection.)

5-In the start politics went for "slow natural build up of herd immunity"-keep healthcare going-the risks of infection was underestimated. Since "natural immunity build-up" resulted in a healthcare crisis vaccines where welcome-with that vaccine passports, QR-codes...The main goal of politics was "keep the economy going"...but that strategy made the pandemic getting worse...

A major problem is now an "elite-bubble" of "experts&politics (some politicians see themselves as experts not even knowing the basics of biology, pandemics...)" has to accept they did get it wrong...Given the pride, arrogance, power that "elite"has a review of strategy may see "bodies piling up" (Allthough UK cases +0%, deaths +8% at 982 this week....getting close to 1,000 deaths per week in the UK). 

Here in NL a vaccine passport for hitler did not change politics idea of the (lack of) usefullness of vaccine QR-codes...Social distancing is better ! 

-Flutrackers etc.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926490-china-covid-19-prevention-and-control-procedures-have-closed-restricted-many-venues-throughout-the-country-october-28-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926490-china-covid-19-prevention-and-control-procedures-have-closed-restricted-many-venues-throughout-the-country-october-28-2021 ; October 28th 00:03
Original title: Scenic closures, concert postponed... Epidemic prevention and control in many places have been upgraded again!
Chinanews client, Beijing, October 28th (Reporter Ren Siyu) In the past few days, there have been multiple local epidemics in China, epidemic risks and prevention and control pressure continue to increase, and epidemic prevention and control measures in various places have been upgraded again. At present, many domestic scenic spots are temporarily closed, cultural venues such as theaters and theaters have restricted current flow, and many concerts and music festivals have once again been postponed 
DJ Yes there are (limited) cases but there-at least is also government action....See also [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926489-china-%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8Bruili-under-double-pressure-the-continuous-covid-19-epidemic-the-suspended-life-population-has-dropped-by-1-2-yunnan-province-october-28-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926489-china-%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8Bruili-under-double-pressure-the-continuous-covid-19-epidemic-the-suspended-life-population-has-dropped-by-1-2-yunnan-province-october-28-2021 ; On July 4, the situation of "no new local confirmed cases and asymptomatic infections" in Yunnan Province was broken again, with 3 new local confirmed cases. All three cases were found in the Jiegao Border Trade Zone in Ruili City.

The border line of Jiegao Guomen Community is 4.18 kilometers long, bordering Muji Town in Myanmar. There is no natural barrier on the border line. Most of them are bounded by the river and the ditch. Here, the importation of overseas epidemics is impossible to prevent. In this wave of epidemics, 74 cases have occurred in this area in a short period of time.

DJ China has-in some places-almost open borders with Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, also with Russia, Mongolia...(Chinese tourists visited North Korea till this pandemic showed up). There is not an "Iron Wall" surrounding China. Laos, Vietnam, North Korea also may go for "zero-CoViD". [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926488-china-border-between-china-and-mongolia-cited-as-possible-source-of-latest-covid-19-outbreak-october-28-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926488-china-border-between-china-and-mongolia-cited-as-possible-source-of-latest-covid-19-outbreak-october-28-2021 ; The Alxa League of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region reported on the details of 11 local confirmed cases on the 27th. Many people worked in the Ceke Port Economic Development Zone, including ambulance drivers, doctors, and nurses at the Mongolian Medical Hospital of Ceke Port Economic Development Zone.

DJ; Some mining-stations, "economic zones" are just as oilrigs very isolated-people living close to eachother...So if there is a disease you have a problem. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926471-denmark-health-min-says-lockdown-likely-if-people-don-t-get-vaccinated-as-covid-cases-rise[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926471-denmark-health-min-says-lockdown-likely-if-people-don-t-get-vaccinated-as-covid-cases-rise ;

Denmark has vaccinated 75 per cent of its entire population, and 85 per cent over the age of 12, as per Sputnik reports. However, it still has witnessed over 1,000 daily instances of COVID cases for the past week. Danish Health Minister Magnus Heunicke has warned to reimpose limitations in the wake of recent developments. Heunicke stated that Denmark might face a fresh lockdown if more people do not get vaccinated against the Coronavirus. The country lifted the restriction just a month ago.

The health minister stated that they need more people to receive the vaccine if they are going to keep Denmark open, according to TV2. More than 1,000 new cases were registered countrywide on Tuesday for the sixth day in succession, a level not seen in months. Professor emeritus of infectious diseases at Aarhus University, Eskild Petersen has speculated that the pandemic is moving in the wrong direction...
DJ; DK cases +75%, deaths -19% population 5,8 million-did see 1,871 new cases yesterday. DK is sequencing allmost all new cases, one of the best countries in healthcare, testing etc. (testing 14,6million per million)...Again 85% of 12y/o+ vaccinated still needs restrictions to keep this pandemic under control...that was known so why they (and we in NL etc) reopened ????

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/emerging-diseases-other-health-threats-ad/926470-ancient-permafrost-bacteria-can-be-resistant-to-modern-antibiotics[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/emerging-diseases-other-health-threats-ad/926470-ancient-permafrost-bacteria-can-be-resistant-to-modern-antibioticsThe resistance of pathogenic micro-organisms to antibiotics is our responsibility — starting from negligent farmers seeking how to save their crops and animals from the disease at all costs, to all those who are taking antibiotics without a doctor’s advice. As a result of such massive antibiotic “bombardment”, the most powerful bacteria and fungi survive, then transmitting antibiotic resistance genes to their descendants. It is difficult to keep up with this evolution: it may take years from the stage of synthesizing a new drug to putting it on the market.

“It is an interesting question — how can the resistance of micro-organisms to antibiotics be related to another contemporary problem — global warming? The answer is rather simple: the melting of the ice can release ancient micro-organisms that are causing diseases. Perhaps even much more deadly and contagious. Of course, one can hope that they will be sensitive to modern antibiotics, but our research says that it may not be so”, — says Andrey Rakitin, one of the authors of the scientific paper, PhD, Senior Researcher of Laboratory of Molecular Cloning Systems, Research Center of Biotechnology RAS.

It turned out that the bacteria Acinetobacter lwoffii, isolated from thousands or millions of years old permafrost, were resistant to antibiotics. This was discovered when the genomes of five strains extracted from the permafrost of Kolyma lowlands in Yakutia were sequenced. This research was made by biologists from both The Institute of Molecular Genetics of National Research Centre ‘Kurchatov Institute’ and the Research Center of Biotechnology. Acinetobacter lwoffii are widespread in a wide variety of habitats and are usually non-pathogenic, but their close relatives, other species of the genus Acinetobacter, can cause dangerous infectious diseases in humans and animals...

DJ source [url]https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/932720[/url] or https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/932720 

Notice; The above source is Russian, written by Russians...I also put links to Chinese sources, written by Chinese...If you think Russians, Chinese "can not think", are "bad by definition" please stop reading scenario's or visiting this forum....In these crises people have to unite...If you think an article written by a woman, or a person with a non-white skin is "lesser science" then YOU are the problem !!!!

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-h5n1-h5n8-h5n6-h5n3-h5n2-h10n8-outbreak-tracking/926460-chp-closely-monitors-human-case-of-avian-influenza-a-h5n6-in-mainland-66-yr-old-male-in-yongzhou-hunan-province[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-h5n1-h5n8-h5n6-h5n3-h5n2-h10n8-outbreak-tracking/926460-chp-closely-monitors-human-case-of-avian-influenza-a-h5n6-in-mainland-66-yr-old-male-in-yongzhou-hunan-province DJ Another case of H5N6 in China. Do they find more cases because of more testing-pandemic related ? A full lust of H5N6 cases at [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-h5n1-h5n8-h5n6-h5n3-h5n2-h10n8-outbreak-tracking/723926-flutrackers-h5n6-cumulative-case-list[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-h5n1-h5n8-h5n6-h5n3-h5n2-h10n8-outbreak-tracking/723926-flutrackers-h5n6-cumulative-case-list 

Related [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/surveillance-and-epidemic-control/926372-j-wildl-dis-isolation-and-identification-of-a-highly-pathogenic-avian-influenza-h5n6-virus-from-migratory-waterfowl-in-western-mongolia[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/surveillance-and-epidemic-control/926372-j-wildl-dis-isolation-and-identification-of-a-highly-pathogenic-avian-influenza-h5n6-virus-from-migratory-waterfowl-in-western-mongolia ; Abstract

In April 2020, two Whooper Swans (Cygnus cygnus) and one Swan Goose (Anser cygnoides) were found dead at three different locations in western Mongolia. Virus isolation from organs taken from the carcasses and full genome sequencing revealed that all three birds were positive for highly pathogenic H5N6 avian influenza virus (HPAIV) belonging to subclade 2.3.4.4h. Confirming similar reports from central Mongolia and western China, these findings have important implications for the monitoring, control, and management of HPAIVs in wild bird and commercial poultry populations in Mongolia.

DJ Some birds travel from Asia to Europe and back...So H5N6 may not stay an East-Asia problem...(And yes we have the "usual outbreaks" of bird flu in Europe). Also;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/genetics/926407-emerg-microbes-infect-a-single-amino-acid-mutation-at-position-225-in-hemagglutinin-attenuates-h5n6-influenza-virus-in-mice[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/genetics/926407-emerg-microbes-infect-a-single-amino-acid-mutation-at-position-225-in-hemagglutinin-attenuates-h5n6-influenza-virus-in-mice ; Abstract

The highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N6 viruses are widely circulating in poultry and wild birds, and have caused 38 human infections including 21 deaths; however, the key genetic determinants of the pathogenicity of these viruses have yet to be fully investigated. Here, we characterized two H5N6 avian influenza viruses--A/duck/Guangdong/S1330/2016 (GD/330) and A/environment/Fujian/S1160/2016 (FJ/160)--that have similar viral genomes but differ markedly in their lethality in mice. GD/330 is highly pathogenic with a 50% mouse lethal dose (MLD50) of 2.5 log10 50% egg infectious doses (EID50), whereas FJ/160 exhibits low pathogenicity with an MLD50 of 7.4 log10 EID50

We explored the molecular basis for the difference in virulence between these two viruses. By using reverse genetics, we created a series of reassortants and mutants in the GD/330 background and assessed their virulence in mice. We found that the HA gene of FJ/160 substantially attenuated the virulence of GD/330 and that the mutation of glycine (G) to tryptophan (W) at position 225 (H3 numbering) in HA played a key role in this function. We further found that the amino acid mutation G225W in HA decreased the acid and thermal stability and increased the pH of HA activation, thereby attenuating the H5N6 virus in mice. 

Our study thus identifies a novel molecular determinant in the HA protein and provides a new target for the development of live attenuated vaccines and antiviral drugs against H5 influenza viruses.

DJ Yes I think this was a "gain of function" study...It also shows why this kind of studies are needed, to get vaccines, early warning...And yes they are not "free of risks" but nothing in life is...

H5N6 could become a major problem if Chinese mostly cases keep going up. But cases may also go up because there is a lot more testing and study...For now H3N2 is the major Flu-season problem combining with CoViD (a.o.)

Some twitters;

[url]https://twitter.com/Ammer_B[/url] or https://twitter.com/Ammer_B

"The lack of global equity is due in part to the fundamental misunderstanding of global solidarity as being founded on generosity, not justice. It is also caused by longstanding systemic inequities in the broader international system" 

DJ One of the reasons for "never ending poverty" for some is racism, also sexism is stopping progress. Both have very old roots in "religion" (or what some would name as that). Maybe things are simple ? You-as a person-can be wrong. You have a "right to be wrong"...we all can get it wrong...but that should not limit vaccines, should not limit girls going to school, should not limit the right of a worker in Africa or South Americ, Asia of a decent income, healthcare, education, housing !

Inequality is one of the factors helping to create pandemics. The big motor is climate change. And most of both problems are caused by an elite making money by creating problems "we want"...(cars, airtravel etc. but the price is to high-we only have one planet.)

[url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator

Adult hockey league outbreak in Canada. 15 sick, one dead. All fully vaccinated. Some spouses and entire families also got sick. 

 explained back in August why ice hockey rinks are particularly dangerous. https://yorkregion.com/news-story/10505636-covid-19-sweeps-through-newmarket-men-s-hockey-league/

DJ The ice can limit ventilation so you get Inversion In the picture, ice-cooled air & the warmer air above create a thermal inversion which inhibits air flow allowing the smoke to stagnate. What happens for smoke happens for exhaled aerosols.   https://ysph.yale.edu/community-education-covid-19/reopening-information/resuming-sports/risks-associated-with-indoor-ice-rinks/

Proberbly could also happen outside...Inversion, one layer of air stopping another layer of air [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inversion_(meteorology)[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inversion_(meteorology)  may limit ventilation outside in urban area's...Also;

The rate of confirmed #SARSCoV2 infection showed a clear increase as a function of TIME from vaccination... A SIMILAR PATTERN was observed in the analysis of SEVERE #Covid19 in the group of persons 60 years of age or older."

DJ, several parts of this pandemic are that predictable I do not understand "experts" pretending not to understand them (lifting restrictions is pushing R0 up, waning vaccine & natural immunity...If I can understand it you can !)

Now that it's officially published in 

, can leading scientists & journalists please finally accept this data from Israel, stop playing dumb & do something in their own countries to decrease the spread & seriously promote boosters before it's too late?

DJ Science may be even more devided then the public is...Also; New paper on 10,024 breakthrough infections shows that vaccination does not prevent #LongCovidhttps://medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.26.21265508v1.full.pdf

So do not try to get "natural booster immunity" !

With NPIs to reduce transmission, keeping persistently high-level wouldn't be necessary. But, what happens if inoculum dose increases (during up-wave), a faster-replicating variant appears (#Delta's AYs) & time passes since vaccination/infection (waning); all at the same time?

It is not "rocketscience"! Stop the spread !!!! spread=mutations=new variants=pandemic getting worse !

Sleep studies done in a small series of 11 post-acute covid patients showed REM without atonia in 4/11. This is considered a harbinger of neurodegenerative disease, such as Parkinson's. We don't see this very often when we read sleep studies. Not good.

And long CoViD is a very serious problem !

"Reinfections are rare" 

* when we look only 3 to 9 months post-infection

 ** pre-Delta 

*** we missed most of the initial infections: most reinfections not detected 

**** initial infection in Sept-Oct 2020 lead to more "150 days" reinfections than earlier infections (Table 1)(why?)

DJ; another myth ! SARS-1 may offer long term immunity against SARS-1, that disease was under control within a few months !

Via a twitter-link [url]https://www.independentsciencenews.org/commentaries/phylogeographic-mapping-of-newly-discovered-coronaviruses-pinpoints-direct-progenitor-of-sars-cov-2-as-originating-from-mojiang/[/url] or https://www.independentsciencenews.org/commentaries/phylogeographic-mapping-of-newly-discovered-coronaviruses-pinpoints-direct-progenitor-of-sars-cov-2-as-originating-from-mojiang/ 

For the horror part [url]https://twitter.com/drericding[/url] or https://twitter.com/drericding ; Umm… this seems relevant. OMG. Ogen “More than 80 percent of people with Parkinson’s disease suffer from a reduced sense of smell, something that often occurs years before the onset of typical movement-related symptoms.”

DJ Do we have to expect an explosion of Parkinson, Alzheimer, linked to CoViD ????? [url]https://neurosciencenews.com/parkinsons-nose-19546/amp/[/url] or https://neurosciencenews.com/parkinsons-nose-19546/amp/ Does Parkinson start in the nose ? 

The CDC on Oct. 14 added “mental health conditions” to the list of #COVID19 risk factors—adding “mood disorders, including depression, and schizophrenia spectrum disorders” to get vaccinated—initial doses & boosters—& take preventive measures. Ogen

DJ But if patients are not informed....

-Dr.Been [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PAGGyxqv9Ss[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PAGGyxqv9Ss  ; Will Covid come back with deadly outcome ? 

Another of his video's [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rweY_RxJzak[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rweY_RxJzak ; Covid becoming endemic ? (DJ Or is it just a word game....

Do the video's overlap ????

-Music; Sending you Good Vibrations - Beach Boys -october 1966 [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B0yoiBYbT2I[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B0yoiBYbT2I ...55 years old allready !


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote HoneyBee08 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 28 2021 at 9:55am

We may very well expect a Covid-related rise in Alzheimer's, as I noted elsewhere on this forum https://www.brightfocus.org/alzheimers/article/infections-can-cause-dementia, many infections can lead to Alzheimer's, including Covid.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 28 2021 at 9:55pm

HoneyBee08,  I am afraid you are correct...but maybe the level of Parkinson/Alzheimer like healthissues in a younger age group-large numbers-is something we have to prepare for...And also STOP THE SPREAD !!! 

"Living with the virus" is insane when the virus can do so much damage !!!

Carbon 20 had a link [url]https://www.newsweek.com/rare-extinct-30-covid-variant-evade-vaccine-antibodies-heavily-mutated-worried-1643396[/url] or https://www.newsweek.com/rare-extinct-30-covid-variant-evade-vaccine-antibodies-heavily-mutated-worried-1643396 on Pfizer/AZ-O evading variant. Because only 5 cases have been detected (UK, Sweden, Angola 3x) and the latest on was from june some "experts" seem to claim "the risk may be gone". 

Testing/sequencing is poor-even in most western countries...It is much more likely A.30 is "under the radar". Even the fact that this A.30 variant "is there" should be very alarming. Evading Pfizer, Astra Zeneca (to a high level) is evading two of the most used vaccines worldwide...

But ignoring this news may be the easy way out...Just like ignoring false QR-codes-linked to vaccine passports for both EU and Russia...Countries reopening with QR-codes as "proof of vaccination" has two major errors;

1-Vaccination protects against severe disease NOT against infection/spread (enough).

2-Fraud has been seen to be widespread in using QR-codes..Certainly if there is not also control on ID (wich you should not want a restaurant, festival, cinema etc to do).

Going back to "social distancing" for ALL would be a much better, wiser alternative...But still we also started travel again, based on QR codes...spreading variants...Why do "we" not learn a thing ???

-Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ showing a global reported 476,724 new cases, trend +3%. Deaths 7,867 trend went up to +5% !!! The total number of deaths at worldometers is now (as I look) 4,996,480-so we will see the 5 million deaths today...

The reason-in statistics-deaths going up this fast is with India deaths going +237 % !!!! (Last week 1,229 - this week 4,145). Are they "correcting numbers" . India claiming still 327 deaths per million (dpm)-global average 640,9 and US has 2,290 dpm, Brazil 2,830...

India is believed to have had maybe up to 5 million people dying from the Delta explosion april this year and further...Still the official number of deaths for India is 457,221...proberbly 10% of any real number...

Global cases +3%, deaths +5% at this moment is "bad" !!! India, China, the EU, US, UK, but also Brazil, Chile have +50% of the adults vaccinated by now. In India over 100 million only took one vaccination...Over 30% of the global population may have had some form of vaccine...and then cases going up again...

Countries; 

1-US new cases going down to 78,460 (-8%)...booster vaccinations and also vaccinating 12-18 y/o may show to have some effects...Yet the 18+ group that did refuse vaccines still-for the most is NOT taking the vaccines...While the decrease of cases may be slowing down. Winter is on its way, proberbly with AY.4.2/Delta+. Coinfection with (H3N2) flu will increase the number of deaths. 

That number is still very high in the US-yesterday did see another 1,208 US deaths - trend -24% (but again from extremely high to still very high) on a weekly basis.

2-Russia reporting 40,096 cases, 1,159 deaths...Cases +10%, deaths +8%. Russia may take over the #1 position from the US. In fact in new deaths per million of the population it allready did...The Russian government is now getting more active...a week pause-wich some Russians seem to see as a chance to go on a trip, family visit...Allthough ICU/hospitals in crisis-news within family/friends of CoViD cases seem to speed up vaccinations (with 3 Russian vaccines..a lot of Russians would welcome more choices). 

3-The UK is #3 for new cases 39,842 trend -9%...Vaccines may go up, schoolholliday may help...UK politics still divided over plan "B" with more NPI...UK deaths 165 yesterday, #10 in the list of most deaths. UK trend there is +16%...

India reported 803 deaths, trend (again) +237% !!!! In new cases India is at #8 with 14,323 new cases being reported-just showing an almost lack of testing...population of India is 1,4 billion ! India cases weekly trend -3% (for what it is worth...)

In new cases Germany now #4-26,610 new cases, trend +33%...German deaths 122, trend -26%.

Ukraine #5 with 26,071 cases, +44%, deaths 576, +55%...

And then the winter still has to start..we are just on october 29...

-Flutrackers etc.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926588-looming-syringe-crisis-threatens-covid-19-vaccine-efforts-in-africa[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926588-looming-syringe-crisis-threatens-covid-19-vaccine-efforts-in-africa ; The World Health Organization has issued a warning over a looming syringe shortage that could threaten the already struggling efforts to vaccinate populations across the African continent for COVID-19.

... UNICEF estimates a shortfall of up to 2.2 billion auto-disable syringes, which automatically lock after use to prevent reuse, next year. This type of syringe is disproportionately used in low- and middle-income countries.

The shortage hasn’t yet hit countries in a severe way. Most countries have received syringes bundled with shipments of COVID-19 vaccines from COVAX and UNICEF. But this is only because the African continent has not received large amounts of vaccines. Less than 6% of the continent’s population is vaccinated.

https://www.devex.com/news/looming-s...-africa-101948

DJ, This shortage will also hamper other vaccination campains (polio, measles, etc). All of Africa yesterday reported 5,005 new cases, 199 deaths...Testing is a very major problem in Africa-we may only see a small % of any real(istic) numbers..

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/926586-how-worried-we-should-be-by-a-30-variant-that-can-evade-vaccines[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/926586-how-worried-we-should-be-by-a-30-variant-that-can-evade-vaccinesA team of scientists in Germany has warned that an old COVID variant called A.30 has resistance to the Pfizer and AstraZeneca COVID vaccines.

However, the variant has not been detected for months, with the last A.30 samples reported between May and June this year.

According to the COVID variant tracking network GISAID, only five cases of A.30 have been reported worldwide—three in Angola, one in Sweden, and one in the U.K.

... Regardless, the scientists in Germany said that a future potential spread of the variant "warrants close monitoring and rapid installment of countermeasures" in a study published in the journal Cellular & Molecular Immunology on October 25.

The study notes that A.30 has several mutations to its spike protein, which the virus uses to latch onto human cells, compared to the B.1 variant that circulated in the pandemic's early phase.

... Responding to assertions that A.30 has already gone extinct, he added: "Lack of proper surveillance capacities in many African countries may leave the chance that A.30 is spreading locally and only occasionally detected when infected travelers are tested in countries with sufficient testing capacities."

DJ As discussed above and in latest news...See also the info on Africa above this story...Africa is hardly doing any testing...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/china-2019-ncov/-2019-ncov-who-chp-wpro-ecdc-oie-fao-moa-reports-and-updates/926585-who-is-now-closely-tracking-a-delta-subvariant-found-in-42-countries-to-see-if-it%E2%80%99s-more-transmissible[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/china-2019-ncov/-2019-ncov-who-chp-wpro-ecdc-oie-fao-moa-reports-and-updates/926585-who-is-now-closely-tracking-a-delta-subvariant-found-in-42-countries-to-see-if-it%E2%80%99s-more-transmissibleThe World Health Organization is now closely tracking a subvariant of the delta variant of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 to evaluate whether it is more infectious than the original delta.

The agency is also seeking to determine whether the subvariant called AY.4.2 is more resistant to the human antibodies that fight the virus, according to its weekly epidemiological update.

“Epidemiological and laboratory studies are ongoing to assess if AY.4.2 confers any
additional phenotypic impacts (e.g. a change in transmissibility or a decrease in the ability of antibodies to block the virus),” said the update.

The AY.4.2 subvariant has been detected in 42 countries, with 93% reported from the U.K., where it accounted for about 6% of all delta cases recorded in the week starting Oct. 3. The WHO is currently tracking about 20 variations of the delta variant.
...
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wh...le-11635431688

DJ It is good to see main-street media end of october reacting to news from early this month...[url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.4.2&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.4.2&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected now has 43 countries (Israel now also reporting 1 case). Is AY.4.2 decreasing ???? Did it transform into another subvariant ? Lack of sequencing ???? Real numbers must be higher..I think...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/926584-coronavirus-traces-of-mu-variant-found-in-altamonte-springs-wastewater-florida[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/926584-coronavirus-traces-of-mu-variant-found-in-altamonte-springs-wastewater-floridaThe Mu Variant of the COVID-19 virus has been found in the wastewater in Altamonte Springs.

It’s the first time that particular variant has appeared in Central Florida’s wastewater since Altamonte Springs began testing for the presence of the coronavirus and its variants.

... “It’s the first time we detected it in any of the sewer service areas in North Orange County and Seminole County,” Altamonte Springs City Manager Frank Martz said. “The concern is obviously whenever you see something new that shows up, you worry about what that means for the community.”

https://www.wftv.com/news/local/coro...E65YHXVNUN4RU/

DJ; "Mu" in wastewater = "Mu" spreading. Sewage/waste water give early indications of what to see in PCR (etc) testing later on in hosts...Not good news ! [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Mu_variant[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Mu_variantThe WHO said the variant has mutations that indicate a risk of resistance to the current vaccines and stressed that further studies were needed to better understand it.[2][3] Outbreaks of the Mu variant were reported in South America and Europe.[4] The B.1.621 lineage has a sublineage, labeled B.1.621.1 under the PANGO nomenclature, which has already been detected in more than 20 countries worldwide.

DJ [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Mu_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Mu_variant#Statistics has "Mu" in 77 countries...US has 5,772 detections of this variant...If "Mu" is able to find a way to spread with Delta/Delta+ being dominant that should be very alarming ! 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/926583-cidrap-less-than-a-third-of-us-parents-eager-to-vaccinate-young-kids-against-covid-19[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/926583-cidrap-less-than-a-third-of-us-parents-eager-to-vaccinate-young-kids-against-covid-19Only 27% of parents in the latest poll from the Kaiser Family Foundation said they were eager to get their young children vaccinated against COVID-19 if the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) authorize the use of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine in children ages 5 to 11.
Thirty percent said they would definitely not get their child vaccinated, and 33% said they would take a wait-and-see approach.
Two thirds of poll respondents who said they would definitely not get their child vaccinated said they were concerned the vaccine may affect their child's future fertility. In general, most parental hesitation surrounding the vaccine concerned unknown long-term safety side effects.

DJ-So if there would be no major long term safety concern from this vaccine for children 5-11 y/o better communications do help. A lot of parents are willing to get their children/babies vaccinated for all kind of other diseases...Fear of vaccines may become a risk in itself...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/926579-cidrap-covid-19-scan-promising-new-covid-19-monoclonal-antibody-waning-covid-vaccine-protection-meatpackers-covid-19-cases-deaths[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/926579-cidrap-covid-19-scan-promising-new-covid-19-monoclonal-antibody-waning-covid-vaccine-protection-meatpackers-covid-19-cases-deaths ; The monoclonal antibody sotrovimab reduced the risk of hospitalization or death from COVID-19 by 85% compared with placebo, according to an interim analysis of a phase 3 clinical trial published yesterday in the New England Journal of Medicine.
In the double-blind, multicenter trial, non-hospitalized patients with symptomatic COVID-19 and at least one risk factor for disease progression were randomly assigned to receive either 500 milligrams of sotrovimab, a pan-sarbecovirus monoclonal antibody developed by GlaxoSmithKline and Vir Biotechnology, or placebo. 

Patients were recruited from Aug 27, 2020, and followed through Mar 4, 2021, and more than 60% were Hispanic or Latino—a population the investigators note has been underrepresented in COVID-19 clinical trials.

DJ; Very welcome news ! If we find better ways to limit damage after infection "living with the virus" may become a lesser disaster...Some anti depressive drug-wide used-also showed anti-inflamatory effects...Some still mention Ivermectin...If it works-great !!!

Also from the link ; In another study published yesterday in the New England Journal of Medicine, Israeli researchers reported further evidence of waning effectiveness of the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine against the more transmissible Delta (B1617.2) variant.
To estimate the role of waning immunity in breakthrough infections during Israel's summer wave of Delta variant infections, researchers collected data on confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections and severe disease reported from Jul 11 to 31 among all Israeli residents who had been vaccinated with the Pfizer vaccine prior to June. They then compared rates of infection and severe COVID-19 among people vaccinated during different periods, with stratification according to age-group and adjustment for possible confounding factors.

-

The rate of confirmed infection showed a clear increase as the time from vaccination increased for all age-groups.

 Among people age 60 and older, the rate of infection from Jul 11 to 31 was higher for those who were fully vaccinated in January 2021 than for those vaccinated in March 2021 (rate ratio, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.3 to 2.0). 

Among people ages 40 to 59, the rate of infection was 1.7 (95% CI, 1.4 to 2.1) times higher for those fully vaccinated in February compared with those fully vaccinated in April. 

For the age 16-to-39 group, the rate of infection was 1.6 (95% CI, 1.3 to 2.0) times higher for those fully vaccinated in March compared with those vaccinated in May.
The results were similar for severe COVID-19. 

Among fully vaccinated people ages 60 and older and 40 to 59, the rate ratios for severe disease were 1.8 (95% CI, 1.1 to 2.9) and 2.2 (95% CI, 0.6 to 7.7), respectively, for those fully vaccinated in January or February compared with those vaccinated in March. 

The rate ratio could not be calculated for those ages 16 to 39, given the small number of severe cases in this group.

DJ-That is why Israel went for booster vaccines resulting in cases -39%, deaths -33% (last week 64, this week 43). 

Also from the link; Committee: Meatpackers' COVID-19 cases much higher than reported

A congressional committee's examination of documents from five of the nation's biggest meatpacking companies found that at least 59,000 meatpacking workers contracted COVID-19 and 269 died in the first year of the pandemic, almost triple the 22,700 cases previously estimated for the five firms by the Food and Environment Reporting Network.
The report is based on documents from JBS, Tyson Foods, Smithfield Foods, Cargill, and National Beef. Together the companies control over 80% of the beef market and over 60% of the pork market.
The 59,000 cases may even be an undercount. "Because data for Smithfield, Tyson, and National Beef may exclude positive coronavirus tests from community testing centers or other health providers, it is likely that the actual rate of coronavirus infections among these companies' workers was even higher than these companies' data reflects," the report says.
Several of the documents shared with the committee offered new information on dangerous working conditions, including sweat-saturated masks and flimsy plastic partitions between workers.
The committee's report included several examples of hot spot meatpacking plants, including a Tyson plant in Amarillo, Texas, where 49.8% of workers contracted the virus, and five people died. Other hot spots included a JBS plant in Hyrum, Utah, where 54% of the workforce contracted the virus, and National Beef’s plant in Tama, Iowa, where 44% of employees got the virus.
Oct 27 committee report

It will not have been that different in most other countries...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/926593-public-trust-in-government-near-historic-lows[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/926593-public-trust-in-government-near-historic-lowsPublic trust in government remains low. Only about one-quarter of Americans say they can trust the government in Washington to do what is right “just about always” (2%) or “most of the time” (22%).

DJ-Not that much better in most other countries. Government dealing with crises resulting crises getting worse (and some politicians/sponsors getting rich) does not help...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/926571-cidrap-merck-to-allow-other-nations-to-produce-new-covid-19-antiviral[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/926571-cidrap-merck-to-allow-other-nations-to-produce-new-covid-19-antiviral ; Merck and the United Nations–based Medicines Patent Pool (MPP) today announced a licensing deal that will allow pharmaceutical companies in other countries to make molnupiravir—an investigational antiviral to treat COVID-19—a step that would ease access in low- and middle-income countries.

First agreement of its kind for the pandemic

Results from promising clinical trials suggest that the drug, the first oral treatment of its kind for COVID-19, could be an important tool for cutting hospitalizations and deaths. Fearing a repeat of the inequitable global rollout of COVID-19 vaccine, global health experts have worried that molnupiravir would be inaccessible and expensive for lower-income countries.
Under the agreement terms, Merck (or MSD, of Kenilworth, New Jersey), Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, and Emory University will not receive sales royalties for molnupiravir as long as COVID-19 is considered a public health emergency of international concern by the World Health Organization (WHO).
In a statement, Charles Gore, MPP's executive director, said "This transparent, public health-driven agreement is MPP's first voluntary license for a COVID-19 medical technology, and we hope that MSD's agreement with MPP will be a strong encouragement to others."
Earlier this month, Merck submitted an application to the US Food and Drug Administration for the drug to be used under emergency use authorization for mild-to-moderate COVID-19, and European regulators this week announced they are speeding its review.

-

MSF says agreement too limiting

Doctors Without Borders (MSF) today said though the agreement is the first of its kind, it doesn't go far enough.
In a statement, Yuanqiong Hu, JD, senior legal and policy advisor for MSF's Access Campaign, said the agreement is a welcome step forward, but it's disappointing that it excludes key upper-income countries such as Brazil and China, both of which have manufacturing capacity and have been hit hard by the pandemic.
Hu also said the license contains an unacceptable clause, put in place by original patent-holder Emory University, that limits the right to challenge molnupiravir patents. She said the clause could stifle production and supply of generics and is problematic, because molnupiravir's development was heavily funded by the US government.

Global cases, deaths tick upward

Global COVID-19 cases and deaths rose slightly last week, partly led by rises in the European region, though some countries in other parts of the world are experiencing new spikes in activity, the WHO said yesterday in its weekly update on the pandemic. Cases and deaths had been on the decline for several weeks but recently showed signs of leveling off.
Regions reporting the highest weekly case incidences were Europe and the Americas, and the five countries reporting the most cases were the United States, the United Kingdom, Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine.
Africa's cases continue to drop steadily, but the WHO said some countries reported sharp rises, including Reunion, Botswana, and Gambia. In another example, some Americas countries also reported sharp spikes, including Dominica, Cayman Islands, and Paraguay.

DJ-It sounds like "welcome good news" but if in practice only countries that do not have pharma capacity are allowed to produce Molnupiravir then it may be "empty words" again...Still it is good some treatments can limit damage ! Related;  [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/926569-cidrap-antidepressant-cuts-covid-19-hospital-cases-30-to-65[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/926569-cidrap-antidepressant-cuts-covid-19-hospital-cases-30-to-65 ; The inexpensive antidepressant fluvoxamine reduced the need for a long emergency department (ED) observation or a hospital stay among high-risk, symptomatic COVID-19 outpatients treated within 7 days of symptom onset as much as 30% to 65%, finds a Brazilian platform clinical trial yesterday in The Lancet Global Health.
In the largest such trial to date, a team led by researchers in Brazil, the United States, and Canada randomly assigned 1,497 adult COVID-19 patients, most of them unvaccinated, in 11 cities to either 100 milligrams of fluvoxamine twice daily for 10 days or a placebo from Jan 20 to Aug 5, 2021.
Average patient age was 50 years, 58% were female, 95% were of mixed race, and all had at least one predisposing medical condition. Patients were followed for 28 days.

The study was part of the ongoing TOGETHER trial, which has evaluated eight possible COVID-19 treatments (eg, lopinavir-ritonavir, metformin). The fluvoxamine arm was stopped early because preliminary results showed that it was more effective than placebo.

-

Patients who took all doses saw a 65% lower risk

Of the 741 patients receiving fluvoxamine, 79 (11%) were observed for more than 6 hours in an ED or transferred to a tertiary care hospital, compared with 119 of 756 (16%) in the placebo group (relative risk [RR], 0.68). Of both possible outcomes, 87% were hospitalizations. An intention-to-treat analysis showed a similar outcome (RR, 0.69), and a per-protocol analysis found a larger treatment effect (RR, 0.34).
The probability of superiority of fluvoxamine relative to placebo was 99.8%, surpassing the study's superiority threshold of 97.6% (risk difference, 5.0%).
In the intention-to-treat analysis, 17 patients in the fluvoxamine group and 25 in the placebo group died (odds ratio [OR], 0.68). In the per-protocol analysis, 1 patient died in the fluvoxamine group, as did 12 in the placebo group (OR, 0.09), and there was a significant treatment effect among patients who reported higher than 80% treatment adherence (RR, 0.34 for hospitalization; OR, 0.09).

-

In a news release from McMaster University in Ontario, senior author Edward Mills, PhD, a McMaster researcher, said of the drug, "It could be one of our most powerful weapons against the virus, and its effectiveness is one of the most important discoveries we have made since the pandemic began." He called it a "massive boon to public health."

Potential impact on treatment guidelines

The study authors noted the dearth of effective COVID-19 treatments, which is particularly problematic in regions of the world with low access to coronavirus vaccines.
"Identifying inexpensive, widely available, and effective therapies against COVID-19 is, therefore, of great importance," they wrote. "Given fluvoxamine's safety, tolerability, ease of use, low cost, and widespread availability, these findings might influence national and international guidelines on the clinical management of COVID-19."

-

In a commentary in the same journal, Otavio Berwanger, MD, PhD, of Hospital Israelita Albert Einstein in Sao Paolo, said that questions remain as to the effectiveness and safety of fluvoxamine in terms of death and hospitalization rates and whether it has an additive effect on other COVID-19 therapies, such as monoclonal antibodies.
"Finally, it is still unclear whether the results from the TOGETHER trial extend to other outpatient populations with COVID-19, including those without risk factors for disease progression, those who are fully vaccinated, and those infected with the delta variant or other variants," he wrote.

DJ; There are several of these kinds of studies (Israel also had one resulting in 8 medications that may "show limiting effects").  Using allready existing medication in treatment of CoViD-patients and getting good results is very welcome ! These kind of findings may (maybe) offer some hope for Long CoViD cases as well ????

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/926553-denmark-ssi-covid-cases-jump-73-in-epi-week-42[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/926553-denmark-ssi-covid-cases-jump-73-in-epi-week-42 ; Joining these growing ranks, Denmark's SSI (Staten Serum Institut) today announced a 73% jump in COVID cases over the past week. Denmark - much like Singapore - has a high vaccination rate.

The increase over the autumn holidays means that the incidence has increased to 148 covid-19 cases per 100,000 Danes. At the same time, the proportion of positive tests has grown from 1.6% to 2.2%, despite the fact that test activity has increased.

"The epidemic is currently growing rapidly across the country. This is most pronounced in the Capital Region, where the positive percentage is also significantly higher than in the other regions, ”says ward doctor Rebecca Legarth from SSI.

She continues:

At the same time, the number of newly admitted covid-19 patients in hospitals is increasing. However, it is important to note that the number of new admissions per 100,000 is significantly higher among unvaccinated than among vaccinated, where the numbers in week 42 were 7 and 3 hospitalized per. 100,000. ”
Multiple breakthrough infections

In total, the number of new admissions with covid-19 increased to 246 in week 42 against 163 the week before.

Among the inpatients is also a large proportion of the so-called breakthrough infections. That is, people who have been diagnosed with covid-19, even though they are fully vaccinated.

For the 20-59-year-olds, the proportion of inpatients with breakthrough infection increased from 21% in week 40 to 29% in week 42. For the 60+ -year-olds, the corresponding proportion in week 42 was up to 84%.

Although there has been some media speculation that a new variant (possibly AY.4.2) may be behind these recent surges, I haven't seen any solid evidence to that effect. Hopefully we'll get better data soon.

Breakthrough infections - particularly among the elderly - are cited as a major factor in Denmark's surge, and that may simply come down to the vaccine's waning effectiveness over time (see Denmark SSI: Increased Breakthrough Infections With Delta Variant).

Whatever the root cause, the abandonment of NPIs (face masks, social distancing, etc.) by many over the summer has certainly exacerbated the situation. Denmark, Singapore, and the UK all decided to rollback most COVID restrictions over the summer, and all three are now seeing large increases in cases.

DJ Again, Denmark, Germany are in the list of good healthcare, lots of testing, vaccines countries. Lifting NPI may be a factor-starting to late with boosters another...Chile has also a lot of vaccines...now moving into summer but cases +23%, deaths +39% is very alarming !!!

DJ-Vaccines are NOT perfect-they never were...but without vaccines our situation would be far worse...not only for CoViD but in general !

Some twitter; [url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ; If we have a National test policy that differs by vaccination status - such that the CDC put out stating to not test once vaccinated, then regardless of the biology, policy will drive detected cases down among vaccinated, regardless of whether they are truly lower.

DJ If you do never test vaccinated you get 100% succes.... (tech-problem-everything below this is gone...  So a few major points 




We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 29 2021 at 10:39pm

DJ, 

Twitter has a lot of very good info...but its links may ruin the lay-out of the page...Have to find something for that when providing links/sharing info...

One of the shifts I notice following this pandemic since it started is that info is "moving away" from the "official news media". Just like with climate collapse there is a "political story" and reality...Even prof. Tim Spector/ZOE-UK notices the gap between UK government story on numbers, symptoms and his group at ZOE-app resulting in other symptoms, much higher numbers...

Also as a background [url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/10/29/dutch-tax-authorities-seriously-violated-gdpr-privacy-law-blacklist-data-protection[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/10/29/dutch-tax-authorities-seriously-violated-gdpr-privacy-law-blacklist-data-protection ;

DJ Here in NL over 270,000 people were treated like they did fraud with finances-often based on nothing more then info from neighbours, ex-partners etc... Since they were on the Tax-office list they sometimes even had problems in getting a phone...

This scandal comes on top of other scandals...Again with Dutch government being responsible the lives of (tens of) thousends of people...Not knowing how to deal with a pandemic, climate collapse is just part of failing politics. Making complex rules is not wise...keep it simple...limit the rules to those you can control.

-Numbers; 

(In the UK both ZOE and ONS numbers are going up-93,000 cases per day...Also for other countries statistics may show lots of differences...I use worldometer that is using most government numbers...but there is a growing gap in numbers...see also Dr. J.C. at the end of this update). 

With [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ as a basis I try to keep an eye on global developments. Global cases yesterday 469,842, deaths 7,613, trends for cases +3%, deaths +4%.

Cases top 3; #1=US with 80,469 (-6%), #2=UK 43,467 (-12%), #3=Russia 39,849 (+9%)...

DJ US may soon see increase of cases again; limited vaccinations, restrictions are a major problem in many countries. The UK did start vaccinating younger age groups and boosters for the elderly. The US is also-with limits-starting to do so. But the US problem is there is a high % that may not get vaccinated for lots of reasons...From distrust in government based on a dark racist past in blacks/hispanics, "God will decide"-religious groups to anti-vaccines...

In Western Europe these groups may be smaller then in the US-resulting in a higher level of vaccinations. But if vaccinating 90% of ALL of the population is seen as a safety limit we will not get there here in Europe as well. In Russia trust in government and vaccines is (also) low...Maybe in Russia more people will get vaccinated due to the health care again collapsing...

At present Europe is the only region with cases increasing (+14%). South America trend now -0,7% for cases. North America -8%, Asia -7%, Africa -6%, Oceania -11% for cases...Still the +14% in Europe is large enough to translate to 3%+ worldwide global cases increase.

The number of deaths went over 5 million in the statistics...We may even see 6 million before january 2022. 

September 10-2020 we did reach 1 million deaths, january 6 2021 it went to 2 million, april 6 did see 3 million, july 3 bring 4 million, october 29 5 million...About 118 days for 2 million, 90 days to 3 millions,88 days to get to 4 million and the step to 5 million did take (about) 118 days...so vaccines and (northern) summer did slow down that number...

The AY.4.2 Delta subvariant is getting less detected [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.4.2&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.4.2&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected wich only means other (sub)variants are increasing...no doubt better in evading immunity (since immunity increased selection for mutations that evade such immunity (vaccine/natural) results in more immunity evading (sub) variants...On twitter I did see a post on some agencies trying to follow over 30 (sub) variants...

My goal with scenario's is to see where this pandemic is going. Vaccines AND restrictions may have stopped it for some time...Going for restrictions again after ignoring warnings that only vaccines can not stop Delta is "pushing the brakes after the crash"...

Yes booster vaccines, more vaccines for younger age-groups AND much more restrictions do help...but this pandemic is an ongoing proces. Mutations did not stop...We are still sinking deeper in the mud...

"Living with the virus", herd-immunity, ignores the virus is keeping mutating high speed. "It will get milder" is wishfull thinking...why should it ? As long as the virus can find hosts to reproduce itself in the virus will not stop...

STOP THE SPREAD !!! So virus has less chance to find new hosts...But "that is damaging the economy"...the present worsening pandemic is a better alternative ? 

It is "only killing those people that are a burden to society"...dead wood...So that is okay ? Old people, people with chronic health issues have to die ? I believe the nazi's lost power in may 1945...but I may be wrong here...Besides that it is also incorrect. Delta is a growing risk for all age groups. 

So far no major non-human CoViD pandemic yet...but following the news on cat-like zoo animals, apes, we may be moving in that direction...The species-barrier is broken many times...

As long as politics/media and due to that the main public do not take risks serious risks increase...

-Flutrackers

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/926656-biden-delays-the-release-of-remaining-jfk-assassination-records-citing-the-pandemic[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/926656-biden-delays-the-release-of-remaining-jfk-assassination-records-citing-the-pandemic  and 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/926654-people-injured-by-many-vaccines-are-covered-by-a-generous-government-program-but-covid-19-injuries-fall-under-a-different-stingier-program[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/926654-people-injured-by-many-vaccines-are-covered-by-a-generous-government-program-but-covid-19-injuries-fall-under-a-different-stingier-program 

DJ-How can the public trust a government that keeps hiding documents on a President being murdered over 50 years ago...A government that claim CoViD vaccines "are safe" but still you can not get compensation when things go wrong...(Political crisis)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/926647-cidrap-covid-19-vaccine-gives-5-times-the-protection-of-natural-immunity-data-show[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/926647-cidrap-covid-19-vaccine-gives-5-times-the-protection-of-natural-immunity-data-show ; US adults who previously had COVID-19 contracted the disease at more than five times the rate of those who were fully vaccinated, according to data published today in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR).

Daily cases near 100,000

In what could be an anomaly, the United States reported 99,384 new cases yesterday and 1,776 deaths, according to the Johns Hopkins COVID-19 tracker. The day before officials noted 76,957 new COVID-19 cases and 2,141 deaths. All told, the country now has had 45,892,544 COVID cases and 744,955 deaths.
The 7-day average of new daily COVID-19 cases is 72,569, with 1,381 daily deaths, according to the New York Times tracker.
And the CDC COVID Data Tracker shows that 57.8% of Americans are now fully vaccinated against COVID-19, 66.5% have received at least one dose of vaccine, and 8.7% of fully vaccinated people have received a booster dose.

Pandemic economic impact

Hamstrung by COVID-19 and supply shortages, the US economy slowed sharply to a 2% annual growth rate in July through September, the lowest quarterly growth since the recovery from the pandemic recession began last year, the Associated Press reported.

DJ Immunity is complex...age is a factor, but also new variants can undo immunity against older variants...

(Are John Hopkins numbers that different from worldometers ???)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/926643-cidrap-covid-vaccines-protect-against-delta-but-don-t-fully-stop-disease-spread[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/926643-cidrap-covid-vaccines-protect-against-delta-but-don-t-fully-stop-disease-spread ; While COVID-19 vaccines lower the likelihood of infection with the highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 Delta (B1617.2) variant, the virus can still be transmitted within households—but less so than among unvaccinated people—a study today in The Lancet Infectious Diseases finds.
Led by Imperial College London researchers, the study evaluated community COVID-19 transmission and viral loads among 602 vaccinated and unvaccinated contacts of 471 mildly ill coronavirus outpatients ages 5 years and older from Sep 13, 2020, to Sep 15, 2021. For up to 20 days, 133 participants contributed 8,145 upper respiratory tract samples, regardless of whether they had symptoms.
Of 205 household contacts of COVID-19 patients infected with Delta, 62% had received two vaccine doses, 19% had received one dose, and 19% were unvaccinated.

-

Average viral load also declined faster in fully vaccinated participants infected with the Delta variant than among unvaccinated participants infected with pre-Alpha (B117), Alpha, or Delta variants.
Median time between receipt of a second vaccine dose and study recruitment in fully vaccinated contacts was longer for infected versus uninfected participants (101 vs 64 days), which the study authors said could be attributed to waning vaccine-induced immunity.

Mitigation steps still needed post-vaccine

Co-senior author Ajit Lalvani, MD, of Imperial College London, said in a Lancet news release that the findings demonstrate that vaccine alone is not enough to prevent infection with and transmission of the Delta variant.

DJ, Vaccines limit risks for severe disease but also for infection/spreading the virus. On e problem with these kind of retrospective studies is how to translate them for the short term future with virusses mutating high speed....I think-as an opinion-that there is a tendency towards more immunity evasion...Again underlining ; STOP THE SPREAD !!!

Why mega (sports) events, international (air)travel etc. are that urgent ? 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/926601-j-clin-invest-the-intersection-of-covid-19-and-autoimmunity[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/926601-j-clin-invest-the-intersection-of-covid-19-and-autoimmunity  DJ People with auto-immune disease can get more severe healthissues after catching CoViD...But also CoViD can result in all kind of auto-immune diseases...

[url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator




Als antwoord op   en 
I’m all for optimism but optimism at the expense of facts is delusion. One also wonders how such public, loud optimism may have influenced people’s risk tolerance and spurred the very behaviors that resulted in that prediction being wrong.

DJ I try to get a realistic view here in scenario's...Of course I would love it when this pandemic would be history by now...but it is not...also for several reasons. 

-Dr. John Campbell with an overview. [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Hfq9gBkwBE[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Hfq9gBkwBE  Good info/links...I do not always share his views...but I do not have to do so...(Info under the video)

Lots of info/questions also in yesterdays ZOE/prof. Tim Spector video...

Music; Linda Ronstadt - Desperado - 1977 [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MeQyoTIQOOM[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MeQyoTIQOOM 



We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 31 2021 at 12:42am

DJ, 

I still get this story in phone-format....Do not know if that is a problem ? 

-A look at numbers/trends [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ showing global cases +1%, deaths +4% ....UK cases would be going down -14% while UK-ONS (Office of National Statistics) and ZOE-tracker app both report increase of cases...to over 90,000 per day...Worldometer using government numbers...With UK "bojo" living in "his own reality" claiming as good as the pandemic is over...lets put more tax money into the economy...

US cases -12% while (a.o. Dr. J.C.) other sources then worldometers report US cases starting to increase...Weekend testing may not give the right info...weekly numbers may take more time...

Russia has cases still going up at an allready high level +8%. Gemany cases +65% !!!! Belgium +49%, NL +48%...there is a new wave starting but statistics may not always get the right numbers yet...

Just like in the "climate discussion" word games become dominant. Redefining "cases" as only symptomatic cases, while also decreasing testing will reduce finding of cases so "this pandemic comes endemic"...and "we have to live with over 10,000 deaths per day as "a new normal"...

Europe again the only "region" in wich both cases +12% and deaths +15% go up. South America had increase of cases now at -2% (deaths at -7%). North America cases -13%, deaths -20%. It would be good news if it is real news...

Israel cases -35% show booster vaccines do help to reduce cases. Vaccinating younger age groups and boosters for more vulnarable groups also help. But without further restrictions it may turn out-again-to be just buying time...

For that matter it is still "a race" between vaccines and variants....Vaccines could be helped with restrictions, masks etc. 

Total reported cases worldwide at 383,922, deaths at 5,973...UK reporting 41,278 new cases (166 deaths) at #1, Russia at #2 with 40,251 new reported cases...Russian deaths at #1 with 1,160. I have very serious questions with numbers from India, Pakistan, Brazil, Africa...Again-statistics do not give much more then a hint...

-Flutrackers etc. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/926731-why-walmart%E2%80%99s-low-price-insulin-is-a-major-milestone[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/926731-why-walmart%E2%80%99s-low-price-insulin-is-a-major-milestone

This new price point may be as lifesaving for diabetes patients as the drug itself

By Aspen Pflughoeft@AspenPflughoeft Jun 29, 2021, 12:27pm MDT

Walmart’s “everyday low price” has made groceries affordable and — as of Tuesday — has now made insulin more affordable. The nation’s largest grocer announced Tuesday that it would begin selling a private brand of insulin at a significantly lower cost than competing brands, reports CNBC.

  • Insulin is a lifesaving and necessary drug for those diagnosed with diabetes and has been used for nearly 100 years, reports CBS News.
  • Walmart’s low-cost insulin will be available for adults and children with prescriptions at Walmart pharmacies starting this week and Sam’s Club pharmacies starting next month, says USA Today.

In recent years, a growing number of Americans have been diagnosed with diabetes. Demand for insulin has increased while prices have skyrocketed, says CNBC.

  • More than 34 million people in the U.S. have been diagnosed with diabetes — or 11% of the population, says CNBC...

DJ, Yes cheaper medication does save lives ! But prevention may save even more lives ! We have to change the way we live ! Prevent getting ill in the first place-by cleaner air, less cars, less meat (with antibiotics), less micro-plastics in drinking water...

Maybe less Walmart would be better for public health !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-melissa-hein-forum-for-psychological-research-and-development/926710-needle-points-why-so-many-are-hesitant-to-get-the-covid-vaccine-and-what-we-can-do-about-it[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-melissa-hein-forum-for-psychological-research-and-development/926710-needle-points-why-so-many-are-hesitant-to-get-the-covid-vaccine-and-what-we-can-do-about-it ; Since my days in medical school, I have had a fascination with the kernel insight behind vaccination: that one could successfully expose a person to an attenuated version of a microbe that would prepare and protect them for a potentially lethal encounter with the actual microbe. I marveled at how it tutors an immune system that, like the brain, has memory and a kind of intelligence, and even something akin to “foresight.” But I loved it for a broader reason too. At times modern science and modern medicine seem based on a fantasy that imagines the role of medicine is to conquer nature, as though we can wage a war against all microbes with “antimicrobials” to create a world where we will no longer suffer from infectious disease. Vaccination is not based on that sterile vision but its opposite; it works with our educable immune system, which evolved millions of years ago to deal with the fact that we must always coexist with microbes; it helps us to use our own resources to protect ourselves. Doing so is in accord with the essential insight of Hippocrates, who understood that the major part of healing comes from within, that it is best to work with nature and not against it.

And yet, ever since they were made available, vaccines have been controversial, and it has almost always been difficult to have a nonemotionally charged discussion about them. One reason is that in humans (and other animals), any infection can trigger an archaic brain circuit in most of us called the behavioral immune system (BIS). It’s a circuit that is triggered when we sense we may be near a potential carrier of disease, causing disgust, fear, and avoidance. It is involuntary, and not easy to shut off once it’s been turned on...

DJ; Vaccination by a lump of suger+vaccine, a pill, nasal spray "dressed as medication" would maybe be more acceptable for some. Some religious group claim disease "is the work of divine power"...but are willing to use medication...For others needles (fear for it) may be the problem...For the short term vaccinations will have to do a main job in "living with the virus"...even when it is only buying time...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/other-diseases-ac/926721-netherlands-avian-influenza-detected-on-a-poultry-farm-in-grouchermer[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/other-diseases-ac/926721-netherlands-avian-influenza-detected-on-a-poultry-farm-in-grouchermerIn Grouchermer (Alkmaar municipality, North Holland province) avian influenza (H5) was diagnosed on a poultry farm with broilers. It is likely to be a highly contagious type of bird flu. To prevent the spread of the virus, the company is being excluded. This concerns about 107,000 animals. The certification is carried out by the Dutch Consumer Product and Food Safety Authority (NVWA).

Another poultry farm is located within a radius of one kilometer around the company. This company has been banned and is extensively monitored and investigated for bird flu. Since there was no other commercial poultry farm in the 10 km area around the affected farm (and the adjacent farm) in Grouchermer, it was decided not to preemptive evacuation, but to prevent and monitor this farm.

DJ-Not unusual news this time of year...Still a few remarks;

1-If keeping animals on a large scale has high pandemic risks should we not be doing more to reduce "animal-farms"? 

2-One way of "government action" could be increasing tax on meat. Part of that tax could be used for farmers to move to other kinds of plant-based food production...like we also see in energy. 

3-Anti-biotics in meat create multi-resistent bacteria. If you still want some meat production then try to go for "high quality-good lives for animals" kind of production...We can not replace eggs in food production in just a few years...(just like we may not be able to totally ban fossil energy in just a few years). But we at least could make a start, plans...

twitter; [url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ; And here's the current situation by continents. Europe still surging out of control, while North America slowing the decrease. These two continents rarely had a #SARS2 divergence this big. And it lasted two months already.

DJ, There may be less travel, checking during travel may stop variants (like AY.4.2...still a lot of ? on this Delta sub-variant). Also a mention of China cases going up...trends +71% with 213 cases reported last week 365 this week-and China definition of cases=with symptoms. 




If airborne was acknowledged as a key pathway leading to the spread of this virus from the beginning, and indoor air was filtered and masks were used, I believe we could have averted this global pandemic. The ones continuing to fight the facts are the ones keeping it going. (2/2)

DJ, All of this pandemic could have been prevented..it should not be this way...That is what I hate most..."leaders" not able to learn anything "saving the economy"...

U.S. COVID update: Early signs that daily cases are no longer declining - New cases: 33,284 - Average: 72,353 (+282) - In hospital: 48,096 (-471) - In ICU: 13,108 (-189) - New deaths: 350 - Average: 1,376 (-13) More data: https://newsnodes.com/us

DJ, I would "love it" (almost) if only European cases would go up but I do not believe that is the real picture....also; 




Asia & South America are bottoming. Last year around this time, they made their temporary lows in cases & deaths. Whatever happens next (some countries like Vietnam & Chile already started a new wave), their progress during last several months was unexpectedly impressive.

DJ, most health agencies did expect numbers to go up during autumn/fall and winter...But cases going up from an allready high level...also in countries with over 80% of all the population vaccinated (Portugal cases +3%, deaths -34%, Denmark cases +60%, deaths -6%) is bad news...we have still several months till spring...and numbers are very bad allready ! Global cases are above the global low numbers from march and june this year...

[url]https://twitter.com/drericding[/url] or https://twitter.com/drericding ; BoJo tricked people thinking the pandemic is over with his freedom day propaganda. Now people are dying because of it.

DJ; the mix of government/politics and some "experts" like we also see in the climate collapse story is resulting in "fake science" used by criminal politicians "saving the economy"...

-Dr. John Campbell on anti-depressant (cheap medication 4 US$) reducing infection-risks [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qrYj5VJKLIs[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qrYj5VJKLIs 

Good news ; The absolute number of serious adverse events associated with fluvoxamine was lower than for placebo this might reflect the modulatory effect of fluvoxamine on systemic inflammation Mechanism? Anti-inflammatory Preventing cytokine storm Antiplatelet activity Increasing plasma levels of melatonin It is now crucial to establish whether a class effect exists? Interactions with vaccines, improved effect?

DJ Cheap, safe, easy to produce medication could save millions of lives !!!

-Music; There Is A Ghost In My House - R. Dean Taylor [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3HstnfzyN8E[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3HstnfzyN8E 

Happy Haloween ! 



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 31 2021 at 3:52am

Worldometer's 7-day moving average shows a small bounce up in both numbers of cases and deaths.  It looks like the improvement from the last wave (Delta) has stopped, but it is too early to call a new wave or if this is just random movement,

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 31 2021 at 10:48pm

DJ, 

The numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ would now indicate global cases going down a little...weekly trend -0,4%. Deaths still +2%.. In official UK numbers UK cases going down -13%...[url]https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map[/url] or https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map earlier did report 93,000+ new cases...also there UK cases going down somewhat (but more like -2% then 13%).

Still global cases at 327,243 and 4,595 deaths being reported. A top 3 for cases;

1, Russia reporting 40,993 cases (+9%), deaths 1,158 ( also weekly trend +9%)

2, UK 38,009 (-13%), deaths 74 (+16%)

3, Turkey 23,948 (-8%), deaths 201 (+1%)

Russia would also be #1 for reported deaths, Romania #2 at 394 (+5% still) and Ukraine #3 with 336 (+19%) reported. 

So what to think of numbers ?


Europe is the only region in wich both cases (+10%) and deaths (+14%) are going up. 

Some countries in other regions new cases also going up fast; Paraguay +64%, Uruguay +59%, Bolivia +20%, Chile, Colombia +19% in South America. 

In Asia China cases also up 67% (from 236 to 393 still very low numbers..). South Korea +35%, Vietnam, Laos both +29%, Qatar +24%. 

In Oceania New Zealand cases +22%, Australia -23%, Papua New Guinea -25%..

US cases -15%, India cases -11%, Brazil -5%..

Are we moving into yet another global pandemic wave or not ? DJ-I think we are...booster vaccines, increasing vaccinating younger age groups may slow the proces down. Also a level of some form of natural immunity-for the short term-may make some difference. Several countries are going back to new restrictions-often within a month after "reopening"("freedom-blagh blagh")...

Of course I would love this pandemic to be over ! But the WHO, ECDC, lots of experts did warn we needed BOTH vaccines AND restrictions...only to be ignored by politics and embedded experts/media...

On the other hand both better experts and media start to speak up...this pandemic was avoidable, other choices should have been made...Saving the economy did harm the economy...

Last week 47,685 global CoViD deaths were reported, this week it was 48,560 trend +2%...the real numbers must be much higher...But 8,000 per day is still 0,8 million after 100 days....Not a number one "should live with" in my opinion !

-Flutrackers etc. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/925006-us-cdc-covid-data-tracker-weekly-review-2021-2022-season-for-trend-analysis-only?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/925006-us-cdc-covid-data-tracker-weekly-review-2021-2022-season-for-trend-analysis-only?view=stream latest  DJ US CDC numbers cases -7,4%, deaths -9,4% on a weekly basis from october 27...Worldometers has different numbers but also includes Guam, US Samoa etc...still it does not fully explain the differences...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states/seasonal-flu-2009-2014-including-h1n1-pandemic-2009-aj/925260-us-fluview-weekly-surveillance-flu-report-2021-2022-season-for-trend-analysis?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states/seasonal-flu-2009-2014-including-h1n1-pandemic-2009-aj/925260-us-fluview-weekly-surveillance-flu-report-2021-2022-season-for-trend-analysis?view=stream latest, DJ Also in the US flu numbers are still low...A-H3N2 may be the variant to watch...Combination of CoViD with Flu will bring more severe disease...(Europe will also have a similar report). 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926123-germany-records-highest-daily-covid-19-infections-since-mid-may[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926123-germany-records-highest-daily-covid-19-infections-since-mid-mayGermany recorded the highest incidence of coronavirus infections since mid-May on Saturday, reaching the threshold of 100 cases per 100,000 in the past seven days that used to be the yardstick for imposing a strict lockdown.

However, Health Minister Jens Spahn noted that Germany could cope much better now due to vaccination, although he said restrictions like mask wearing and limits on indoor activity for unvaccinated people would stay until next spring.

The seven-day incidence rate of cases – which until August was used to decide whether to impose more stringent COVID-19 curbs – rose to 100 on Saturday from 95 on Friday, the Robert Koch Institute responsible for disease control said.

DJ Vaccines are supposed to make the major difference...and it does for severe/hospital/ICU cases ! But not enough for stopping the spread...

twitter; [url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculatorThis is a comforting notion that #Delta can be defeated & controlled. South Africa & several other countries returned it to baseline like previous variants. Although, it's definitely stickier & more prolonged, as witnessed by that smaller secondary wave bump.

DJ If countries we keep poor did find other ways to keep numbers down they may show more wisdom then many western "leaders"....

From [url]https://twitter.com/drericding[/url]  Wow- 1 in 4 infected with COVID do NOT develop antibodies! There goes natural immunity strategy — it’s not reliable! Hence get #vaccinated!

DJ, There are major differences in how immunity works out...No or mild symptoms, older age, may provide less natural immunity...But also in the vaccinated there may be big differences...

Related countries differ on how old vaccination can be to allow entry; Israel does not consider someone vaccinated if the last vaccination was over 180 days ago. Some European countries go for 270 or 360 days...So boosters will become a new normal...

-Dr. John Campbell also on people getting ill/die AFTER (fully) vaccination [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOyB2PyRf-k[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOyB2PyRf-k ;

54 were fully vaccinated Among the 54 25 (46%) patients were asymptomatic 4 (7%) had mild disease 11 (20%) had moderate disease 14 (26%) had severe or critical illness 4 (7%) required ICU 1 required ventilation 3 died 

Among those with severe or critical illness Median age 80·5 years Pre-existing comorbidities in the 14 patients with severe or critical illness Body–mass index more than 25 kg/m² (n=9) Cardiovascular disease (n=12) Lung disease (n=7) Malignancy (n=4) Type 2 diabetes (n=7) Immunosuppressive agent (n=4) 

Difference between vaccines 13 of 14 patients had received BNT162b2, Pfizer 1 of the 14 had received mRNA-1273, Moderna 0 of the 14 had received Ad.26. COV2.S, J and J  

Patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection Yale New Haven Health System, Connecticut Between March 23 and July 1, 2021

DJ The impact of Delta, Delta+ (AY.4.2) is not included in these numbers...So in my opinion this retrospective study should not be translated to what to expect in the coming months...Yes-in general vaccines still do a very good job against severe disease...but (again) not against infection/spread of the virus...

Pfizer/Moderna may offer reasonable protection against severe disease for 6/8 months...depending a.o. on age, health, but also on the level of vaccinations in "your area"...If a lot of people did get vaccinated recently you will have much better protection then when most of the people did get vaccinated over half a year ago (certainly if they had J&J/Janssen). 

So I think Dr.J.C. did show "facts" but the interpretation of these findings is open for debate !

-Music; The 13 minutes+ of Thriller - Michael Jackson [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sOnqjkJTMaA[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sOnqjkJTMaA ...halloween afterparty   E N J O Y........


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 01 2021 at 10:33pm

DJ, 

Let me start by some twitter from [url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ;

In London, AY.43 increased slightly faster than AY.4.2, AY.46.5 at about the same as AY.4.2. Possibly because London  is an international travel hub. One would estimate several dozens of new cases from these two lineages. AY.4.2 grew at a slightly lower rate than elsewhere.

and Also, at the grand scheme of things, changes on the scale of 1-3% growth per day have been common over the past year. These are much unlike the jumps by Alpha (9%) and Delta (11% over Alpha), which dramatically altered the course of the pandemic. ///

and For the right context, let's take a look at the spread of all AY lineages. The fastest growing lineage continues to be AY.4.2, which is 3% [2-5%] faster per day than AY.4 (which was perhaps 3% faster than initial Delta). Note I'm using daily growth rates r here, R0 is over ~5d.

DJ...We are at over 50 Delta sub-variants by now...Even the best testing/sequencing may have a problem with that. And we are not doing enough testing...most (mild/asymptomatic) cases will be missed while spreading a mutating virus...

A look at [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ numbers underlines the difficulty in keeping an eye on developments; global cases and deaths now both at +2%. The decrease in cases may have been related more to (not) reporting cases, not testing (school holiday) etc...

US cases now only -4% may be one of the reasons statistics could provide an incorrect picture...Germany cases +73% may be a more realistic number for this month...Even with restrictions/vaccinations cases still going up....

Total reported number of cases 344,132, deaths 5,009 

Top 3 cases;

#1, US with 48,839 cases, 550 deaths, 

#2, Russia 40,402 cases, 1,155 deaths,

#3, UK  40,077 cases, 40 deaths

Romania reporting 311 deaths, Bulgaria 310, Ukraine 298 make the "deaths top 5"...India only reporting 202 new cases, no deaths puts a big ? on the global statistics...but it is all we have...

-Flutrackers etc. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/926813-colorado-hits-80-vaccine-rate-with-hospitals-in-covid-19-crisis[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/926813-colorado-hits-80-vaccine-rate-with-hospitals-in-covid-19-crisisEighty percent of Colorado residents have received at least one Covid-19 vaccination, Governor Jared Polis announced Monday, while warning surging infections among the unvaccinated are bringing the state closer to rationing hospital care “in the next few days.”..

...Colorado has one of the highest vaccination rates in the U.S. though hospital bed occupancy in both intensive care units and medical-surgical units has been averaging about 90% in recent weeks, officials have warned. Nearby Idaho, a state with one of the lowest vaccination rates in the U.S., is actively rationing hospital care. ..

DJ Inside many countries very major regional differences...on top of that most of this pandemic there was a relation with US numbers and Europe/UK numbers...somehow that link is missing...Do travelrestrictions have enough effect in spreading variants ? Does the US has its own variants stopping those from Europe, UK etc? 

Also the global healthcare situation keeps getting worse. Proberbly over 1% of HCW-ers in the world may have died (WHO numbers between 80,000 and 180,000...). A lot of HCW-ers did not have that much trouble to find 9-to-5 jobs with better pay outside healthcare-much lower risk...Again underlining the political disaster...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/926732-fluvoxamine-an-effective-treatment-for-covid-19-a-collection-of-studies-and-news?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/926732-fluvoxamine-an-effective-treatment-for-covid-19-a-collection-of-studies-and-news?view=stream DJ-Discussion on anti-depressive drugs and the use in limiting CoViD. 

Also a lot of bird flu spread around Europe, Asia...but we may see that as "normal" by now...

More from [url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ; Minnesota had 787k cases (13.9% of the 5.6m population), so 8184 reinfections would make a little above 1%. That aligns with several other surveys also reporting circa 1%. It may seem little but if extrapolated to the whole US, it would imply 487k reinfections by now already.

DJ, Here in NL "government" will increase vaccine passports, masks...because after end of september-as expected-cases went out of control...(they never learn). Vaccines do NOT offer enough protection against infection, spreading the virus...certainly when a "supposed to be government" sticks to the idea of boosters in spring 2022...

Also; 




It has been growing in Vlag van DenemarkenVlag van FrankrijkVlag van BelgiëVlag van Duitsland, which could be biological advantage, or just the fact that those countries are just being hit with Delta case growth, and that's what's there? Doesn't have any spike mutations beyond Delta, and just N:Q9L that looks at all unusual.

DJ; I do not fully understand this...One single mutation in Delta causing an explosion of cases the last two weeks ? 

[url]https://twitter.com/drericding[/url] or https://twitter.com/drericding ; the pandemic’s true death toll is **not** merely the official 5 million #COVID19 deaths, but likely ~16 million, according to the Economist. Many deaths in India and Brazil where there isn’t enough testing. But even in developed countries too. https://economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates

DJ-To be honest, I think 16 million deaths is still low...Several countries in "official numbers" allready over 3,000 deaths per million of population...=0,3%. If you take 0,3% of the global 8 billion population (3x8 million) I end up at 24 million...India still claiming 'only" 328 deaths per million...The US has over 2,300 ! Brazil may be in the "same group"as India and has 2,833 deaths per million...

India's total numbers matters. But looking at NL with 18,423 deaths...The real number most likely is double..The official number did not include deaths in care centers..."they died from old age"....

Also deaths from Covid does not include all those who died from other healthissues but did not get the care needed in time because of CoViD...So "pandemic deaths" is higher then "CoViD deaths"...Since we did see less flu, also a decrease in some regions in traffic accidents (and in some countries the most vulnarables died in 2020 !) excess deaths may be-for some countries-LOWER then normal...statistics !

In countries "we keep poor" you are old when you reach 60...Most CoViD deaths are in the 60+ age groups-poor countries do not have that many "older people"...

-I did not see a new video from Dr. John Campbell (and this site is "slow" to day...) so music :

Roxy Music - 1975 - Love Is The Drug [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0n3OepDn5GU[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0n3OepDn5GU 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 02 2021 at 10:59pm

DJ, 

Yesterday our so called PM and healthminister had another pressmeeting on new restrictions in NL. In stead of taking responsibility for opening up to much to soon end of september they tend to blame the unvaccinated...We have a 85%+ level of vaccinations in NL...The problem is politics again and again ignoring science, "saving the economy", right wing populism...[url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/11/02/cabinet-expands-covid-pass-system-even-wider-expected-face-mask-rules-explained[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/11/02/cabinet-expands-covid-pass-system-even-wider-expected-face-mask-rules-explained 

This problem is in many countries...How can you expect the public to follow any rules if politics keeps failing like this...

One of the basics in many countries will be QR-code-vaccination passports. The weak spot is these QR codes are shared and sold  on the internet, it is not safe. But politics want to live in illusions...

Friday next week there will be another pressmeeting...with more restrictions because the "new old rules" presented yesterday will have little effect. It is all a sad show...

Numbers ;

[url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ; I'll rephrase this for an additional effect. Israel boosted with a 3rd dose 44% (!) of the total population, the UK 12%, and the US 6%. Other European countries are even more behind. What have we been doing for the past three months since Israel started its booster campaign?

-

Belgium has not reported any COVID-19 data for 4 days in a row

DJ, to little to late.... strange Belgium stopped reporting ? Also; Growth advantage and extrapolation of AY.4.2 based on Sanger Institute data in the UK (multilevel multinomial model). Based on this data AY.4.2 seems to have a ~20% growth advantage/week over AY.4 and will become dominant in the UK in December.

DJ, There are allready over 60 sub-variants of Delta based on very limited testing & sequencing...Again it is out of control !

It is very likely some of these subvariants of Delta may be "getting better" in evading immunity. Certainly with booster vaccinations much to slow, a lack of other restrictions, these variants will keep increasing & mutating. 

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ global cases reported = 384,184 +0,4%, deaths as far as reported 6,867 +0,8%

For cases #1-US 59,413 -7%, #2-Russia 39,008 +9%, #3 UK 33,865 -10% make the top 3. Turkey, Ukraine at 4 and 5.

Deaths Russia at #1 with 1,178 deaths +9%, US at #2 with 1,059 deaths -19%, Ukraine at #3 with 700 reported deaths +6%.Romania and India at 4 and 5...

A few other countries to watch; 

Israel cases +11% (5,836 last week-6,456 this week-proberbly both more restrictions and vaccinations are needed. Israel has a young population, also some groups are hard to reach...). Israel deaths last week 40, this week 43 +8%...not good ! It is very likely some Delta+ variants are spreading in Israel...

China cases +76% (last week 269, this week 474-with China only counting symptomatic cases as a case). Still sticking to no new deaths...Massive testing, vaccinations, restrictions...In that way an example for the rest of the world...

Let me be very clear !!!!! Even if it would take mandatory vaccinations-by force-this crisis is getting that bad I may have to support such drastic draconian step...(just an opinion by a non-expert). 

India cases -14%, deaths +17%...3,000 deaths last week, 3,519 this week...328 deaths per million...I do not believe India statistics...

[url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.4.2&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.4.2&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected  giving an indication on spread of AY.4.2 last weeks of october...

[url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports has 151 Delta sub-variants....[url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.43&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.43&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected is at 108 countries and exploding....

So, with winter and flu on its way, healthcare as good as broken, politics in the hand of lunatics....better find a safe place. This is beyond "booster vaccines"....

-Flutrackers etc. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/920558-us-surveillance-data-shows-white-tailed-deer-e