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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Now tracking the new emerging South Africa Omicron Variant

scenario's

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 18 2021 at 10:02pm

DJ,

In my non-expert assessment of where this pandemic is now all alarms are ringing !  Some numbers;

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table ;

New reported cases for november 18; 605.324 trend +7%, deaths 8,018 trend -0,8...

Europe cases 378.847 trend +13%.....deaths 4.132 trend +3%....most of healthcare allready at breakingpoint and we are just in the middle of november ! Vaccination level is high in several countries....but still increase is extreme...

Portugal cases +51%, Denmark +57%, NL +46%, Germany +35%, UK +15%....not vaccinating children, not in time with boosters are just one factor....

[url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.43&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.43&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected november 16 AY.43 detected in 232.162 samples....8% India, global 5%, UK 2%, US 1% of all samples...but at latest date over 30% of global cases allready were AY.43...

November 19 215.014 AY.43 detections...India 2%, world 4%, UK 2%, US 1% ?????? Did they split up AY.43 into several subvariants ? Do I get the statistics wrong ? 

[url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=DEU[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=DEU may answer that...I hope !

AY.43 =29% of German cases, other is 28% looks like increasing....B.1.617.2 (old Delta) = 15%, AY.4=9%, AY.102=6%, AY.46.6=5%, AY.121 and AY.98.1 both 3% and AY.42 =  2%....(9 "types")

Basic point I want to make that while there is a lot of discussion on how to increase vaccinations, what the different groups can or can not do more infectious variants of Delta may be exploding....

A look at [url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=NLD[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=NLD does not show that major differences with Germany (we do not have AY.102 in the numbers...12 sub variants even a bigger genetic mess....

Looking at several twitter accounts...[url]https://twitter.com/peacockflu[/url] or https://twitter.com/peacockflu

Flagging small observation (promoted by convo with 

). The rapidly growing AY.4.2.1 sublineage (ID'd by 

) has a further spike mutation (V36F) directly adjacent to A222V. Could this be further fine tuning of AY.4.2's superior transmissibility?

-

Never seen V36X coming up in any antigenic literature - however I had a quick map to structure and very interestingly V36 (red) lies right next to A222 (orange) (A222V is also found in AY.4.2) in the bottom of the Spike NTD could be working together/compensating for one another??

-




First sequence of B.1.640 found in Quebec, Canada (spotted by ). The Canadian seq appears most closely related to the Dutch, USA and Parisian sequences so pretty unclear where thats come from... Globally now at ~40 sequences total of B.1.640 

DJ-Problem is AY.4.2.1 is NOT a major variant in Germany or NL....

My impression is cases are exploding...totally out of control and maybe we simply have not yet a real idea of what variants/mutations are pushing that exponential growth...

Blaming unvaccinated is not realistic...it does not explain the growthrate also in highly vaccinated countries...We may get a touch of winter next week...maybe a combination of factors could explain some growth (to many not vaccinated yet, waning immunity, lack of restrictions)...but my idea is the main motor may be in the variants...still being ignored by many...

There are also some claims vaccination could have caused variant selection...but (as far as I can see) cases in vaccinated are going up in groups that should have had a chance to get a booster vaccine...Does a large number of children (not vaccinated) result in some new variants increasing ????

THIS IS A MAJOR CRISIS !!!! THIS EXPONENTIAL GROWTH IS GOING GLOBAL !!!!!

Eric Ding ;   Europe is now the epicenter of COVID in the world. What a failure of leadership.

DJ I hope it is "only bad politics" so "good politics" could make a change...Israel cases still -12% may indicate more (booster) vaccines do matter....

Germany now reporting over 60.000 cases per day, NL over 20.000 per day...my impression-again-is that there is much more then limited vaccine protection and lack of restrictions...I hope to find more info on twitter/flutracker....

NL deaths last week 5x higher then Dutch CDC numbers on CoViD indicated...in all age groups...Healthcare in many countries is close to collapse...lack of staff a major factor. Testing is at capacity limits...there are some indications real number of new cases may be 2x, 3x the official number in NL, Germany....[url]https://www.cbs.nl/nl-nl/nieuws/2021/46/in-week-45-overleden-bijna-850-mensen-meer-dan-verwacht[/url] or https://www.cbs.nl/nl-nl/nieuws/2021/46/in-week-45-overleden-bijna-850-mensen-meer-dan-verwacht (In Dutch-google translate !)

DJ The present crisis reminds me of being in a car driving high speed and someone in the back of the car has a steering wheel...not connected to the car...a nightmare...

Music - Take Good Care Of Yourselve - The Three Degrees [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wDOXxbhyFhc[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wDOXxbhyFhc  Live in Japan 1975....


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 19 2021 at 10:01pm

DJ, 

My goal in this scenario's as a non-expert is trying to make some sense on what is happening. This pandemic is getting worse fast...global cases up +9% from an allready high level....

I did take a look at a talk of Geert van den Bossche. One could see his view as "anti-vax", but his point is much more nuanced...[url]https://thehighwire.com/videos/vaccine-expert-warns-of-covid-vaccination-catastrophe/[/url]  or https://thehighwire.com/videos/vaccine-expert-warns-of-covid-vaccination-catastrophe/

If you go for mass-vaccination when you are allready in a pandemic and the vaccine "only" limits severe disease-hardly limits spread-you are going for vaccine selection in variants.....Virusses mutate...SARS-2 is very widespread so it will see even more mutations as a "species"...

The first variants in Brazil, South Africa (you could proberbly also include Peru, Philippines, Nigeria) had to do with virus-spread in a highly populated (poor) area...The virus did run wild-giving some mutations that turned out to be better in spreading then the 2019 variant...

If you then introduce widescale mass vaccination you may find out the vaccines offer good protection against the "older" variants...so they stop spreading...only to give way to more agressive variants...

If I get Geert van den Bossche correctly it may have been better to only vaccinate the groups most at risk...let the virus do its damage in the other groups...and yes that would be bad-but the alternative would be even worse. Resistent variants no longer stopped by any immunity at all....

So "damned if you do not vaccinate but even in a bigger problem if you go for mass vaccination"....The way I see it vaccines at best did buy us time....

Some experts claim you have to go for mass vaccination-to buy that time...we will create newer vaccines to deal with the newer variants that mass-vaccination selection pressure will create...So where are the better vaccines...because it looks like the "better/worse variants may be allready here".....

DJ-What I am missing in all of the strategies and discussions is a long term view...Wehave to go back to an old normal that did give us this pandemic...no room for questions...blame China, blame the unvaccinated..save the economy....show must go on...

We did know another pandemic would be just a matter of time...that was the basis for this forum ! But somehow the idea was that a sort of very basic monitoring would be enough...healthcare would be able to do miracles even with decreased budgets...I think healthcare did do miracles but duration is taking its toll....

We may now face CoViD-19 variants that are able to evade immunity on a large-global-scale....One of the aspects may be a higher viral load giving more severe disease...

So-yes you can increase vaccinations, booster vaccinations...they do still limit severe disease...but still you are only buying time again. 

Several countries in Europe-some with allready a high level of vaccinations-are discussing another lockdown. But that is-again-short term thinking...is there any long term strategy that may work ? 

With healthcare on its knees how are other diseases developing ? CoViD in animals seem to be increasing....This means CoViD-19 may include non-human hosts...billions of them-soon....Vaccines have their limits....

A major problem for most of us is understanding risks....we may see a high wave but miss the tsunami untill it is to late...In the video they compare it to kill killer whales and the weapon used is not working against the sharks that then show up....

Again-worst pandemics, disease outbreaks, do kill a high number of people...The Spanish Flu was relatively mild....

Time to wake up ! 

end of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 19 2021 at 10:06pm

part 2...A look at numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ; global reported cases friday november 19 599,002, deaths 7,771 trends cases +9%, deaths 0%...

For Europe cases 357,995 trend +15%, deaths 4,066 trend +4%...North America trend for cases +13%, deaths -5%, Asia has a mixed picture, so does South America and Africa (South Africa cases +47% !!!). The newest wave-with more infectious Delta+ variants is spreading around the globe but for now most of it is in Europe...but US cases also +15%, Canada, Mexico still in decrease of cases...

In Europe France cases +83%, Finland +66%, Spain +56%, Portugal +50%, NL +43%, Denmark +35%, Germany/Austria +33%, Italy +26%, UK +14%...

[url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.4.2&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.4.2&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected The AY.4.2 something of 12% in latest numbers worldwide ? [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.43&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.43&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected AY.43 around 13% ? [url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=DEU[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=DEU in Germany AY.43 29%, "other" 28%, B.1.617.2/old Delta 15%....

Maybe the problem is not (only) in the variants...Lack of restrictions, ignoring vaccines do not stop spread will be another factor....But I do not know if there are any good international statistics on cases in (fully) vaccinated...Here in NL the number of fully vaccinated ending up in hospital is increasing but mostly linked to a lack of boostervaccines...just started here...

-Twitter may have some info ? 

[url]https://sargasso.nl/de-komende-corona-crash/[/url] or https://sargasso.nl/de-komende-corona-crash/ An article in Dutch...(google translate) but the basic problem may be worldwide allmost...no long term strategy ! Zero-CoViD at least is a long term idea...but a lot of rich countries (from Russia, EU, US) go for saving the economy...resulting in a Corona-Crash (CC)....

And such a Corona Crash may be much worse then we have seen so far...why are governments, politics, not doing their jobs ? Do we have to go for 100,000 's of deaths per day ? When will they wake up ! 

We have to get cases down now ! Not talks on can unvaccinated go to a barbershop...insanity...

The house is on fire and the talk is on what shall we safe-while we are still in the burning house ! Crazy !!!

[url]https://twitter.com/Ammer_B[/url] or https://twitter.com/Ammer_BSo what now? Lockdowns may have to come - but they mark a failure. Mandatory vaccinations may have to come - but they mark a failure. Call it a lack of empathy, a lack of solidarity, a lack of intelligence. But we have failed to act as a society in our own best interest.

DJ....And maybe the worst news is we are now in a worse shape then early 2020 in many ways...healthcare is allready in crisis, public support for ANY policy may be gone....While we now have more agressive variants...20 months into this pandemic. 

Have you ever wondered what happened to all those 'vaccine escape' mutations like Beta we heard about, and why epidemiologists were more worried about transmissibility than immune evasion? Read this. New from us in @CellCellPress Rug van hand met omlaag wijzende wijsvinger  https://cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(21)01374-X

DJ [url]https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(21)01374-X[/url] or https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(21)01374-X ;

Summary

SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern exhibit varying degrees of transmissibility and, in some cases, escape from acquired immunity. 
Much effort has been devoted to measuring these phenotypes, but understanding their impact on the course of the pandemic – especially that of immune escape – has remained a challenge. 
Here, we use a mathematical model to simulate the dynamics of wildtype and variant strains of SARS-CoV-2 in the context of vaccine rollout and nonpharmaceutical interventions. 
We show that variants with enhanced transmissibility frequently increase epidemic severity, whereas those with partial immune escape either fail to spread widely, or primarily cause reinfections and breakthrough infections. 
However, when these phenotypes are combined, a variant can continue spreading even as immunity builds up in the population, limiting the impact of vaccination and exacerbating the epidemic. 
These findings help explain the trajectories of past and present SARS-CoV-2 variants and may inform variant assessment and response in the future.

Highlights

  • -
    Modeled impacts of different SARS-CoV-2 variants across range of scenarios
  • -
    Enhanced transmissibility leads to more infections and narrows margin for control
  • -
    Partial immune escape often remains rare and may not limit vaccination impact
  • -
    Impact of immune escape is much greater when paired with enhanced transmissibility

We may be in this phase right now...vaccines less effective with increased spread...




We have the knowledge. We have the vaccines. We have the money. Germany should not be in the situation it is in two years into this pandemic. What we lack is evidence-based politics. What we lack is social medicine. What we lack is empathy.

DJ history keeps repeating itself over and over again if we keep failing to learn the lessons ! Variants are getting worse, support, care collapsed...

[url]https://immunenetwork.org/DOIx.php?id=10.4110/in.2021.21.e32[/url] or https://immunenetwork.org/DOIx.php?id=10.4110/in.2021.21.e32 may help understanding the effect of mutations....

Flutrackers; 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/laboratory-and-imaging-features/928262-open-forum-infect-dis-the-longest-persistence-of-viable-sars-cov-2-with-recurrence-of-viremia-and-relapsing-symptomatic-covid-19-in-an-immunocompromised-patient-a-case-study[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/laboratory-and-imaging-features/928262-open-forum-infect-dis-the-longest-persistence-of-viable-sars-cov-2-with-recurrence-of-viremia-and-relapsing-symptomatic-covid-19-in-an-immunocompromised-patient-a-case-study ;

Abstract

Background: Immunocompromised patients show prolonged shedding of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in nasopharyngeal swabs. We report a case of prolonged persistence of viable SARS-CoV-2 associated with clinical relapses of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in a patient with mantle cell lymphoma who underwent treatment with rituximab, bendamustine, cytarabine with consequent lymphopenia and hypogammaglobulinemia.
Methods: Nasopharyngeal swabs and blood samples were tested for SARS-CoV-2 by real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). On 5 positive nasopharyngeal swabs, we performed viral culture and next-generation sequencing. We analyzed the patient's adaptive and innate immunity to characterize T- and NK-cell subsets.
Results: SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR on nasopharyngeal swabs samples remained positive for 268 days. All 5 performed viral cultures were positive, and genomic analysis confirmed a persistent infection with the same strain. Viremia resulted positive in 3 out of 4 COVID-19 clinical relapses and cleared each time after remdesivir treatment. The T- and NK-cell dynamic was different in aviremic and viremic samples, and no SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies were detected throughout the disease course.
Conclusions: In our patient, SARS-CoV-2 persisted with proven infectivity for >8 months. Viremia was associated with COVID-19 relapses, and remdesivir treatment was effective in viremia clearance and symptom remission, although it was unable to clear the virus from the upper respiratory airways. During the viremic phase, we observed a low frequency of terminal effector CD8+ T lymphocytes in peripheral blood; these are probably recruited in inflammatory tissue for viral eradication. In addition, we found a high level of NK-cell repertoire perturbation with relevant involvement during SARS-CoV-2 viremia.
DJ If a virus can stay in a person that long it may bring a lot of mutations....

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/treatments/928261-open-forum-infect-dis-meta-analysis-of-randomized-trials-of-ivermectin-to-treat-sars-cov-2-infection[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/treatments/928261-open-forum-infect-dis-meta-analysis-of-randomized-trials-of-ivermectin-to-treat-sars-cov-2-infectionAbstract

Ivermectin is an antiparasitic drug being investigated for repurposing against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Ivermectin showed in vitro activity against SARS-COV-2, but only at high concentrations. This meta-analysis investigated ivermectin in 23 randomized clinical trials (3349 patients) identified through systematic searches of PUBMED, EMBASE, MedRxiv, and trial registries. The primary meta-analysis was carried out by excluding studies at a high risk of bias. Ivermectin did not show a statistically significant effect on survival (risk ratio [RR], 0.90; 95% CI, 0.57 to 1.42; P = .66) or hospitalizations (RR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.36 to 1.11; P = .11). Ivermectin displayed a borderline significant effect on duration of hospitalization in comparison with standard of care (mean difference, -1.14 days; 95% CI, -2.27 to -0.00; P = .05). There was no significant effect of ivermectin on time to clinical recovery (mean difference, -0.57 days; 95% CI, -1.31 to 0.17; P = .13) or binary clinical recovery (RR, 1.19; 95% CI, 0.94 to 1.50; P = .15). Currently, the World Health Organization recommends the use of ivermectin only inside clinical trials. A network of large clinical trials is in progress to validate the results seen to date.

DJ If Ivermectin is that effective in some countries-a.o. India why are studies not showing such results ? I would love to believe Ivermectin making a difference at least somewhere somehow...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/laboratory-and-imaging-features/928259-open-forum-infect-dis-acceptability-usability-and-performance-of-lateral-flow-immunoassay-tests-for-severe-acute-respiratory-syndrome-coronavirus-2-antibodies-react-2-study-of-self-testing-in-nonhealthcare-key-workers[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/laboratory-and-imaging-features/928259-open-forum-infect-dis-acceptability-usability-and-performance-of-lateral-flow-immunoassay-tests-for-severe-acute-respiratory-syndrome-coronavirus-2-antibodies-react-2-study-of-self-testing-in-nonhealthcare-key-workersAbstract

Background: Seroprevalence studies are essential to understand the epidemiology of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Various technologies, including laboratory assays and point-of-care self-tests, are available for antibody testing. The interpretation of seroprevalence studies requires comparative data on the performance of antibody tests.
Methods: In June 2020, current and former members of the United Kingdom police forces and fire service performed a self-test lateral flow immunoassay (LFIA), had a nurse-performed LFIA, and provided a venous blood sample for enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). We present the prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 and the acceptability and usability of self-test LFIAs, and we determine the sensitivity and specificity of LFIAs compared with laboratory ELISA.
Results: In this cohort of 5189 current and former members of the police service and 263 members of the fire service, 7.4% (396 of 5348; 95% confidence interval [CI], 6.7-8.1) were antibody positive. Seroprevalence was 8.9% (95% CI, 6.9-11.4) in those under 40 years, 11.5% (95% CI, 8.8-15.0) in those of nonwhite ethnicity, and 7.8% (95% CI, 7.1-8.7) in those currently working. Self-test LFIA had an acceptability of 97.7% and a usability of 90.0%. There was substantial agreement between within-participant LFIA results (kappa 0.80; 95% CI, 0.77-0.83). The LFIAs had a similar performance: compared with ELISA, sensitivity was 82.1% (95% CI, 77.7-86.0) self-test and 76.4% (95% CI, 71.9-80.5) nurse-performed with specificity of 97.8% (95% CI, 97.3-98.2) and 98.5% (95% CI, 98.1-98.8), respectively.
Conclusions: A greater proportion of this nonhealthcare key worker cohort showed evidence of previous infection with SARS-CoV-2 than the general population at 6.0% (95% CI, 5.8-6.1) after the first wave in England. The high acceptability and usability reported by participants and similar performance of self-test and nurse-performed LFIAs indicate that the self-test LFIA is fit for purpose for home testing in occupational and community prevalence studies.

DJ Maybe good news...DIY-testing at home may help limiting burden on testing facilities...results are good enough...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/928055-nature-multiple-mechanisms-of-covid-brain-harm-etc?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/928055-nature-multiple-mechanisms-of-covid-brain-harm-etc?view=stream latests; 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41582-021-00593-7



Differences in the prevalence of the various neurological symptoms were observed between older (aged 60 years or more) and young (aged less than 18 years) subpopulations. Acute confusion or delirium, fatigue and myalgia tended to dominate in the older group. In patients aged under 18 years, the most common neurological symptoms were impairment of smell and/or taste and headache, and seizures were also noted in some individuals. Alarmingly, mortality in patients with COVID-19 who had one or more neurological manifestations was found to be 27% and was especially high in patients aged 60 years or more. The finding that the prevalence of stroke was 1.2% in people with COVID-19, compared with only 0.2% in those with influenza, is also concerning1.

Topical therapy with antiviral drugs and antibodies, administered via nebulizers and nasal sprays at the portal of entry of SARS-CoV-2, is expected to reduce viral loads and minimize the incidence of neurological complications10.

A global consensus is needed on diagnostic approaches, management modalities and follow-up to ensure the well-being of long-haulers in general, and to address the neurological features of COVID-19 in particular9. Topical therapy with antiviral drugs and antibodies, administered via nebulizers and nasal sprays at the portal of entry of SARS-CoV-2, is expected to reduce viral loads and minimize the incidence of neurological complications10.

DJ CoViD-19 does cause damage all over the body not "just" the respitory system....(Long CoViD therefore most often will be a real issue...not "mental" ...)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/928192-scientists-mystified-wary-as-africa-avoids-covid-disaster-not-so-much[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/928192-scientists-mystified-wary-as-africa-avoids-covid-disaster-not-so-much latests; 

Originally posted by sharon sanders View Post
No mystery. Grossly inaccurate reporting.

Apart from the spotty medical and news coverage, Africa may also be being helped by having a very young population, with a median age under 20, compared to around 40 for most of Europe..

The fatality rate of the virus is quite low for those under 40.

DJ...A young population may help....low testing resulting in low numbers.....However South Africa, Egypt a.o. may give some indications there is a major problem...Trends Africa cases -12%, deaths -18%...Egypt cases +1%, deaths +7%, South Africa cases +47%, deaths -47% (????) but it may be very hard to get a good overview...Africa did see variants in South Africa, Nigeria...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/928214-cidrap-full-icus-amid-covid-surges-could-lead-to-thousands-of-extra-deaths[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/928214-cidrap-full-icus-amid-covid-surges-could-lead-to-thousands-of-extra-deathsA modeling study today in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report estimates that 12,000 more people die 2 weeks after US hospitals reach 75% adult intensive care unit (ICU) occupancy amid COVID-19 pandemic surges, a figure that rises to 80,000 when ICUs are full—which is the case now in many hospitals in multiple US states.
Researchers from the US Department of Homeland Security's Cybersecurity & Infrastructure Security Agency COVID Task Force evaluated the relationship between overwhelmed hospitals and excess deaths from Jul 4, 2020, to Jul 10, 2021. The end of the study period included the emergence and eventual dominance of the more transmissible Delta (B1617.2) variant.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) provided data on excess all-cause deaths, and the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) provided hospitalization data. Excess deaths were estimated as the difference between observed and expected deaths over specific periods.

Effects felt up to 6 weeks later

Over the study period, excess deaths rose as ICU bed occupancy increased 2, 4, and 6 weeks after surges. A model based on data on all-cause excess deaths predicted that 75% ICU bed occupancy was tied to another 12,000 deaths (95% confidence interval [CI], 8,623 to 17,294) 2 weeks later, with more deaths at 4 and 6 weeks.

DJ All the more reason for early action !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/928205-us-hospitalizations-among-the-vaccinated-are-rising[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/928205-us-hospitalizations-among-the-vaccinated-are-rising“What we’re starting to see now is an uptick in hospitalizations among people who’ve been vaccinated but not boosted,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Disease, said Tuesday in an interview. “It’s a significant proportion, but not the majority by any means.”

On Wednesday, Dr. Rochelle Walensky, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, reported a decline in vaccine effectiveness among the elderly and residents of long-term care facilities, many of whom were the first to be eligible to be vaccinated last winter.

“Although the highest risk are those people who are unvaccinated, we are seeing an increase in emergency department visits among adults 65 and older, which are now again higher than they are for younger age groups,” Walensky said Wednesday at a White House Covid briefing.
...
The current seven-day rate of hospital admissions is about 5,300 per day, according to the CDC, and about 1,000 people in the U.S. are dying from Covid every day.

Still, it’s not clear how many breakthrough hospitalizations there are. Although the CDC has been tracking the rate of hospitalizations among fully vaccinated people, its website shows data only through Aug. 28. According to the latest data from the CDC, an unvaccinated person is at 11 times greater risk of dying from Covid than a vaccinated person.

The CDC didn’t respond to a request for new numbers.
...
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/healt...-says-rcna5907

DJ It is very likely new subvariants of Delta may be better in evading immunity...but if you do not keep statistics....

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa/seasonal-flu-2009-2014-including-h1n1-pandemic-2009-ag/south-africa-ab/928202-flu-is-spiking-in-south-africa-especially-over-the-past-2-weeks-nicd[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa/seasonal-flu-2009-2014-including-h1n1-pandemic-2009-ag/south-africa-ab/928202-flu-is-spiking-in-south-africa-especially-over-the-past-2-weeks-nicdInfluenza cases started rising at the end of August but have been spiking in the past two weeks
People at risk of getting severe Covid are also at risk of getting severe influenza

Influenza has been almost entirely absent from South Africa - and the world - ever since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Now, however, it’s making its comeback, boosted by the relaxation of measures to combat Covid-19, and by immune systems that have not seen flu in a long time... 

DJ South Africa is now in spring, moving towards summer next month !!!! Flutrackers also reporting high level of flu at US universities....

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/928213-cidrap-austria-moves-to-full-covid-19-lockdown-national-vaccine-mandate[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/928213-cidrap-austria-moves-to-full-covid-19-lockdown-national-vaccine-mandate ; Battling an unprecedented surge like some of its neighbors, Austria's government today announced a full lockdown, the first in Europe to take such dramatic steps amid the continent's fourth surge.

Europe's latest surge is its biggest, and last week, the World Health Organization's European region recorded its highest weekly total of the pandemic: nearly 2.19 million cases.

Meanwhile, in the United States ahead of the winter holidays, cases continue to spike in the Midwest, with numbers rising in the Northeast, as well.

High vaccination level not enough

Earlier this week, Austria ordered a lockdown for unvaccinated people, but Chancellor Alexander Schallenberg said the measure didn't boost vaccination levels enough, according to the Washington Post. About 64% of Austrians are fully vaccinated, about average for Europe, but a bit higher than the United States.

The nation's incidence rate nearly doubled over the past 2 weeks, and Austrian media reports have described bodies accumulating in the corridors of a hospital in Upper Austria state, one of the country's hardest-hit areas.

"Now we have to face reality," he said at a briefing. The lockdown begins on Nov 22 and will be reevaluated after 10 days. After 20 days, the measure could shift to just unvaccinated people.

DJ Lockdowns are needed-but only work if in place long enough...opening up for christmas-family get-togethers would undo the results of weeks of lockdowns (as we did see in several countries christmas 2020...). Also mandatory vaccinations....how do you make that work ? Vaccine passports ? 

It may be hard to get 100% of a population (from a certain age) vaccinated...and with vaccine protection being limited it may be wiser to put energy in vaccinating those that accept vaccines...with good communications that can be 90-95%...mixed with enough restrictions...

I am not against mandatory vaccines...but you can not pick unvaccinated people just from the street...to enforce vaccination...In the past there have been mandatory vaccinations and they worked in combination with good communications....

-Music...[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TzFnYcIqj6I[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TzFnYcIqj6I  "Here Comes The Rain Again"...Talk To Me - Like Lovers Do....Eurythmics...

Stay safe...end of part 2...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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DJ,

I started another item on this forum PT-H-IC...Positive Tests, Hospitals, Intensive Care...you could also include Available Capacity (AC with AC-H, AC-IC as sub groups), Duration...Available Staff, lets get real Sec. for security...because I am talking of what in NL is called the "black scenario"...I prefer Doom Scenario...demand for healthcare is (far) bigger then capacity...(Available Staff AS is another factor...going down...maybe 1% per week in a crisis ?)

We do have allready selection criteria for hospital/IC. Duration of needed care is a factor...the shorter the expected time one needs care the more chance one gets in. Years of life saved is next...a person of 20 may have more years left then a 60 y/o....Vaccination so far is NOT a criterium...in a worst-worst case scenario a (sort of) lottery/coin-flip may be decisive...in that stage I think vaccinated or not also may become a criterium...(but not official...just on the hospital floor). 

Some experts allready seeing police/military defending (major) hospitals...those that can get in may survive, those that not get in and are infected will die...We are allready very close to such a scenario in most of Europe...You can move patients to regions with some capacity...but they may get to their limits as well soon. 

So a step between "DH" Defended Hospitals and now may be Emergency Hospitals (EH)...triage may select for what patient can go where...but EH may be usefull at best for a few weeks...

The way to slow down a bit this disaster is lockdown now !!!! But still "politics" keep failing; "saving the economy" insanity...With variants traveling around the globe in vaccinated hosts...

In the [url]https://sargasso.nl/de-komende-corona-crash/[/url] or https://sargasso.nl/de-komende-corona-crash/ they work with numbers based on past experiences. In that "model" it takes 8 days between testing positive and 1,7% getting into hospital, 12 days between testing and 0,35% needing ICU...

New (sub) variants giving a higher viral load may see those % going up...worsening the crisis...other diseases-also expected to increase-will worsen the situation...

Of course if cases are exploding societies get more effected...If people would act wise...limit outdoor activity to the essential the doom-scenario may be only a matter of a few days, weeks...

Point is governments fail...running behind the facts, over-optimistic (head of NL-CDC was very excited about the new pills limiting disease..."this winterwave will be the last one"...I think that man is a major problem because he is not realistic on the risks...Dr.J.C. -no doubt about both his expertise, knowledge and his good intentions...but in a crisis you need crisis managers...If you go for "war on the virus" you may need military types...A more military style structure; emergency laws for the duration of the crisis but with a maximum of two years...). 

There are lots of protests around the globe-and in my opinion the basic point is real; We are taking away freedoms to deal with a crisis. You have to be very carefull with that, set clear goals, have good communications...and we are not doing most of that...no long term strategy or goals...just "saving the economy" and "vaccine religion" with even the vaccine producers themselves stating vaccines AND !!!!! restrictions are needed !

Political failure may be the main problem in this pandemic....and that is not getting any better....

Another reason why I want a lockdown for ALL ! is I am against "vaccination-apartheid". Limiting rights for the unvaccinated...

We need a united society not more division...we need bridges not wider gaps...communication not confrontation...

end of part 1 (another coffee...)


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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DJ, (part 2-numbers)

Delta did get some Asian countries allready in a doom-scenario...Brazil, other South American countries did see such a crisis...Early 2020 Italy, some Eastern European countries may have seen such a crisis on a regional level-getting repeated later on...Parts of the US also have seen this kind of disaster...

So numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ can give an indication also on what to expect...November 25 US Thanksgiving, december will see a lot of "family spread events"...

Reported cases worldwide november 20...487,756 trend +8%, deaths; 5,989 trend -0,6%. 

Europe cases november 20....334,891 trend +15%, deaths 3,491 trend +4%.

A top 3 for new cases #1 Germany 48,245 (+33% weekly trend) cases reported. #2 UK 40,941 (+11%) #3 Russia 37,120 (-5%)...

The US would be #4-36,633 less testing in the weekend-trend +5%, #5 Poland cases 23,414 trend +39%.

Proberbly the WHO, some other international organizations (Red Cross,  (E/A)CDC, etc) working on "models" on when healthcare will collapse (no longer "if" but "when"...)

Statistics may provide a false sense of safety...feeling of control...Here in NL proberbly only 1-in-5 CoViD deaths may have been reported...making it into the statistics...The 18,955 CoViD deaths in worldometers may be less than half the real number of 40,000+ ...

Testing capacity is overstretched...some German claims real number of positive testing may be 2 to 3 times the reported statistic...When you look at the UK ZOE tracker app has to be higher then the official numbers but if it is more then 2x the official number testing may simply not be good enough.

I believe WHO and ECDC use different percentages to see if testing is at a correct level...maximum of 3%-5% of testing should be positive...In NL 17%+ of allready overstretched testing is positive...

A look at global increases  of cases (with numbers that may have some meaning...) ; South Africa +82%, France +81%, Finland +66%, NL +48%, Portugal +45%, Poland +39%, Spain +34%, Germany, Denmark but also Peru +33%, Sri Lanka +32%, Austria +30%, Italy +27%, South Korea +26%, Algeria, DRC +22%, Panama, Mozambique +20%, New Zealand +18%, Vietnam +16%, Lebanon, Bangladesh +12%, UK, Laos, Bolivia +11%, Argentina +7%, US +5%, Malaysia, Qatar +4%....the list indicating spread/increase of cases no longer just a European story... 

Israel cases -0,2% meaning boosters did make a difference-but maybe time to increase restrictions ?

For now it is welcome to see cases going down in Greece -1%, Chile, Colombia -2%, Russia -5%, Canada -7%, Indonesia, Paraguay, Bahrain -8%, Thailand -10%, Australia, India, Kenya -11%, Brazil claiming cases -27%, Pakistan -30%....Philippines -35%, China-46% (last week 514, this week 276 cases...).

DJ-I am NOT an expert, neutral, objective...in my opinion however-with what was known from corona-virusses in animals-the ONLY realistic strategy is Zero-CoViD...Herd Immunity was bound to fail from the start-even with good vaccines giving false perspectives resulting in to little restrictions...

But for China-with a strong government, "state-controlled capitalism", a choice for zero-CoViD was much easier then for "liberal" market oriented countries...Even if "we" wanted to, Zero-CoViD would not "fit" in "our way of living"...Australia, New Zealand, Iceland, Israel being isolated did have a better perspective...

Deaths per million worldwide average statistic now at 662,4 , Australia dpm 75, New Zealand 8, Israel 874...learning the hard way...Iceland 99...China DPM =3, Laos 17, Taiwan 36, South Korea 63....Japan 146, Norway 182...Finland 225.

US DPM=2,378, UK 2,104...Peru still #1 in that list with 5,976 deaths per million=0,5976 in official statistics of Peruvians died from CoViD...Bulgaria at #2 with 3,953, Bosniaand Herzegovina at #3 with 3,757...

Brazil claiming 2,854 dpm, India 333 (!)  numbers are "unrealistic"...

end of part 2

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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part 3

DJ-Being the weekend twitter/Flutracker may be not offering most of the news..

[url]https://twitter.com/UseBy2022[/url] or https://twitter.com/UseBy2022 ;

just a reminder. It's not a "peak" until its gone back down.

-

Whispers... November isn't winter....

-

N:K374n -  might be one to watch in Germany 

-

ahhh wait, now I get it...


Afbeelding

5

4

35


DJ Cases flat-lined (in the UK BoJo&Co claim) while cases are going up 11% in (latest) weekly trend...Of course "politics" and embedded experts/press love terms like "exit wave"...Austria being "much less vaccinated" then the UK...in fact just 4% less...Most of western Europe is doing better then most of the US. Australia, New Zealand could be-by now-being better then both Europe and US-high number of vaccines with limited number of population (Australia & New Zealand together just under 26 million !

[url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ;

"Western World" charts are now going vertical in cases. Those billion most powerful & richest people on the planet are now the epicenter of #COVID. Europe as a whole & smaller Western European countries need y-axis adjustments, while the "big" West Europe is catching on fast.

-

ASTONISHING GRAPH—shows mitigations against #COVID19 are now absent among US states. Vaccines & boosters are good but not enough. The US will pay a heavy price this coming winter, if Europe is any clue to the future winter wave—& US has often followed Europe. #MaskUp #ventilate
Citeer Tweet

Very few social distancing mandates remain in effect in the US. Seven states have mask mandates, and five states have some form of gathering restrictions. Many other mandates are in place at the local level. 1/

-

Ok, so I've been doing pediatrics for 15 years but never before have I had a patient with 5 identifiable viruses. Vermoeid gezicht It's going to be a bad winter.


Afbeelding

DJ Five infections at once....with risks for further bad variants/recombinations...How bad can it get ? 




And yet ... where's the urgency? What am I missing?

Maybe the main point...the idea was governments govern....politics make rules...not endless bla-bla and blame-games...Some more (re)tweets;




Folks if you're qualified to get a COVID booster do so ASAP. If you're not vaxxed please do so ASAP. If you're not vaxxed against influenza do so ASAP. It's going to get apocalyptically bad ASAP in hospitals and healthcare systems.

-

This winter is gonna be such a shitshow. The west's monumental incompetence and premature declarations of victory, now being reneged on for the Nth time, have legitimized claims the pandemic is a hoax and lockdowns will never end 




I’ll add one line they forgot to include: Vaccines AND, not vaccines only. - ⁦⁩ Europe is learning a crucial lesson -- vaccines work, but they alone won't stop Covid now -

DJ But vaccines are still used as almost to only tool in both Europe and US....Have the decissionmakers gone blind ? 

[url]https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ[/url] or https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ blaming the unvaccinated may give the vaccinated the idea they can ignore risks...while they may be the biggest group spreading the virus...(besides schoolchildren still not able to get vaccinated...)

[url]https://twitter.com/CorneliusRoemer[/url] or https://twitter.com/CorneliusRoemer in German...Healthminister in Germany may decide boosters for older to get priority over vaccinations for children (DJ; background christian democrats in Europe hardly get any young votes...so political priority over a medical one...). 

Flutrackers;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream latests;

Hero surgeon killed by Covid was DOUBLE-JABBED
2 days agoLast Updated: November 19, 2021
Grieving widow Saila Halim said Dr Irfan Halim, 45, passed away at Royal Brompton Hospital in West London on November 14 following a nine-week battle with the virus.

The doctor, who had no known health conditions, received his second vaccine in January but was struck down by the disease on September 10, six days before Britain’s booster programme was given the green-light.

As a frontline NHS worker who was vaccinated nine months ago, he would have been at the front of the queue for the crucial third shot when they were rolled out on September 16.

Speaking exclusively to MailOnline, Mrs Halim said today: ‘My husband worked away from London and I’m not sure which vaccine he received but he was double vaccinated and always wore full PPE when he was on the wards.’ Fighting back the tears, she continued: ‘He never said anything about getting the booster and I don’t think he got one.

‘It makes you question the efficiency of the vaccine but now is not the time for me to think about these things because I’m so heartbroken. ‘It’s a double tragedy for the family and we are in too much pain to consider anything else.’..

DJ It may result in even more HCW-ers giving up the job; high risk not compensated by respect, pay, etc...with politics giving room for wave after wave...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/928313-mrna-covid-vaccines-dramatically-increase-endothelial-inflammatory-markers-and-acs-risk-as-measured-by-the-puls-cardiac-test-a-warning[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/928313-mrna-covid-vaccines-dramatically-increase-endothelial-inflammatory-markers-and-acs-risk-as-measured-by-the-puls-cardiac-test-a-warning ;

https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1....suppl_1.10712

Abstract 10712: Mrna COVID Vaccines Dramatically Increase Endothelial Inflammatory Markers and ACS Risk as Measured by the PULS Cardiac Test: a Warning
Steven R Gundry

Originally published 8 Nov 2021Circulation. 2021;144:A10712

Abstract

Our group has been using the PLUS Cardiac Test (GD Biosciences, Inc, Irvine, CA) a clinically validated measurement of multiple protein biomarkers which generates a score predicting the 5 yr risk (percentage chance) of a new Acute Coronary Syndrome (ACS). 

The score is based on changes from the norm of multiple protein biomarkers including IL-16, a proinflammatory cytokine, soluble Fas, an inducer of apoptosis, and Hepatocyte Growth Factor (HGF)which serves as a marker for chemotaxis of T-cells into epithelium and cardiac tissue, among other markers. 

Elevation above the norm increases the PULS score, while decreases below the norm lowers the PULS score.

The score has been measured every 3-6 months in our patient population for 8 years. 

Recently, with the advent of the mRNA COVID 19 vaccines (vac) by Moderna and Pfizer, dramatic changes in the PULS score became apparent in most patients.

This report summarizes those results. A total of 566 pts, aged 28 to 97, M:F ratio 1:1 seen in a preventive cardiology practice had a new PULS test drawn from 2 to 10 weeks following the 2nd COVID shot and was compared to the previous PULS score drawn 3 to 5 months previously pre- shot. 

Baseline IL-16 increased from 35=/-20 above the norm to 82 =/- 75 above the norm post-vac; sFas increased from 22+/- 15 above the norm to 46=/-24 above the norm post-vac; HGF increased from 42+/-12 above the norm to 86+/-31 above the norm post-vac. 

These changes resulted in an increase of the PULS score from 11% 5 yr ACS risk to 25% 5 yr ACS risk. At the time of this report, these changes persist for at least 2.5 months post second dose of vac.We conclude that the mRNA vacs dramatically increase inflammation on the endothelium and T cell infiltration of cardiac muscle and may account for the observations of increased thrombosis, cardiomyopathy, and other vascular events following vaccination.

Footnotes

Author Disclosures: For author disclosure information, please visit the AHA Scientific Sessions 2021 Online Program Planner and search for the abstract title.

DJ Some remarks; As Dr.J.C. keeps pointing out aspirating during vaccinating-to check if you are not hitting a bloodvessel-should have priority. Part of the problem could be in the way vaccinations are done (?). As far as I understand it the group followed allready had hearth-problems...still it is something to take very serious !
How are non-mRNA vaccines doing ? 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/928307-covid-19-stigmatising-the-unvaccinated-is-not-justified-correspondence-the-lancet-november-20-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/928307-covid-19-stigmatising-the-unvaccinated-is-not-justified-correspondence-the-lancet-november-20-2021

COVID-19: stigmatising the unvaccinated is not justified (Correspondence, The Lancet, November 20, 2021)


CORRESPONDENCE| VOLUME 398, ISSUE 10314, P1871, NOVEMBER 20, 2021

COVID-19: stigmatising the unvaccinated is not justified

Günter Kampf

Published:November 20, 2021DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)02243-1

In the USA and Germany, high-level officials have used the term pandemic of the unvaccinated, suggesting that people who have been vaccinated are not relevant in the epidemiology of COVID-19. Officials’ use of this phrase might have encouraged one scientist to claim that “the unvaccinated threaten the vaccinated for COVID-19”.1 But this view is far too simple.
There is increasing evidence that vaccinated individuals continue to have a relevant role in transmission. In Massachusetts, USA, a total of 469 new COVID-19 cases were detected during various events in July, 2021, and 346 (74%) of these cases were in people who were fully or partly vaccinated, 274 (79%) of whom were symptomatic. Cycle threshold values were similarly low between people who were fully vaccinated (median 22·8) and people who were unvaccinated, not fully vaccinated, or whose vaccination status was unknown (median 21·5), indicating a high viral load even among people who were fully vaccinated.2 In the USA, a total of 10 262 COVID-19 cases were reported in vaccinated people by April 30, 2021, of whom 2725 (26·6%) were asymptomatic, 995 (9·7%) were hospitalised, and 160 (1·6%) died.3 In Germany, 55·4% of symptomatic COVID-19 cases in patients aged 60 years or older were in fully vaccinated individuals,4 and this proportion is increasing each week. In Münster, Germany, new cases of COVID-19 occurred in at least 85 (22%) of 380 people who were fully vaccinated or who had recovered from COVID-19 and who attended a nightclub.5 People who are vaccinated have a lower risk of severe disease but are still a relevant part of the pandemic. It is therefore wrong and dangerous to speak of a pandemic of the unvaccinated. Historically, both the USA and Germany have engendered negative experiences by stigmatising parts of the population for their skin colour or religion. I call on high-level officials and scientists to stop the inappropriate stigmatisation of unvaccinated people, who include our patients, colleagues, and other fellow citizens, and to put extra effort into bringing society together.

...
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...243-1/fulltext

DJ Blame-games are used by failing politicians to hide their failing strategies....In fact blame-games WORSEN the pandemic ! We need unity not division !

"politics" saving the economy are destroying the economy ....but they also are destroying democracy !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states/seasonal-flu-2009-2014-including-h1n1-pandemic-2009-aj/new-york-ab/928077-ny-syracuse-universtiy-averages-40-to-50-cases-day-%E2%80%9Cyou%E2%80%99re-seeing-102-103-degree-fevers-you%E2%80%99re-seeing-a-lot-more-serious-symptoms-consistent-with-a-pretty-difficult-flu%E2%80%9D[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states/seasonal-flu-2009-2014-including-h1n1-pandemic-2009-aj/new-york-ab/928077-ny-syracuse-universtiy-averages-40-to-50-cases-day-%E2%80%9Cyou%E2%80%99re-seeing-102-103-degree-fevers-you%E2%80%99re-seeing-a-lot-more-serious-symptoms-consistent-with-a-pretty-difficult-flu%E2%80%9DSYRACUSE, N.Y. — Central New York is officially in the flu season as the colder temperatures approach. This year, influenza will compete with another virus: coronavirus.

"One thing that’s concerning is how much flu we're seeing already," Dr. Chris Morley with Upstate Medical University said. "We are entering some new territory. We have not co-managed a robust flu season and COVID-19 at once."...

DJ-Another reason for lockdown ! Health Care is running out of capacity !!!!

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/canada/canada-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/928220-canada-has-thrown-away-at-least-one-million-covid-19-vaccine-doses-informal-survey[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/canada/canada-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/928220-canada-has-thrown-away-at-least-one-million-covid-19-vaccine-doses-informal-survey ; An informal survey shows that at least one million doses of Canada's COVID-19 vaccine supply have gone to waste.

The Canadian Press asked health ministries across the country to provide the number of doses that had to be disposed of because they had expired or for other reasons.

Not all were able to reply by deadline. Some jurisdictions - including Yukon, Northwest Territories, and Prince Edward Island - only provided the number of expired doses. Ontario refused to provide any information.

The survey suggests at least 1,016,669 doses have been rejected since vaccines first arrived last December. That's about 2.6 per cent of the entire supply delivered to the provinces and territories that provided their numbers.

Unused doses vary wildly across Canada. Alberta reported disposing of 10 per cent of its doses; Nova Scotia 0.3 per cent.

Some waste is to be expected, but Canada should be striving for the lowest amount possible, said Dr. Ross Upshur of Toronto's Dalla Lana School of Public Health and co-chair of the World Health Organization's COVID-19 ethics working group.

It's difficult to know if Canada is meeting that goal because of poor data-sharing and a lack of transparency, said Upshur...

DJ-Beyond criminal ! You may not be able to avoid some vaccines ending up in garbage...but that number should be below 0,1% !!! Proberbly Canada could be doing even better then some other countries ! Exporting vaccines to countries we keep poor-for public relations reasons-without a good plan may see vaccines net getting away from (air)ports...

[url]https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2021/11/articles/animals/other-animals/more-about-sars-cov-2-in-deer/[/url] or https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2021/11/articles/animals/other-animals/more-about-sars-cov-2-in-deer/ ;DJ Good article; the basic message is we need more study...The conclusion-almost-of "low risk" for deer-to-human spread, and deer-variants of CoViD may be the sort of over-optimism we did see much to often in this global health worsening crisis....

I-as a non-expert-and as "an opinion" think CoViD may allready be spreading on a larger scale in non-human hosts...We do not test enough so we do not find it...But lack of testing and sequencing are constants in this pandemics...

Music; Love Of My Life - Queen - 1975 [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sUJkCXE4sAA[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sUJkCXE4sAA 

DJ Love makes live worth living....and there are so many things, creatures to love...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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DJ...limited time...

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/11/21/stricter-lockdown-last-winter-coronavirus-infections-dont-fall-security-council-leader[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/11/21/stricter-lockdown-last-winter-coronavirus-infections-dont-fall-security-council-leader Goal of a lockdown/NPI would have to be to STOP getting into a crisis...not a reaction ON a crisis...

We most likely will get in "Code Black" in NL this week...with hospitals running out of capacity...We are now allmost in a week  with over 20,000+ cases per day...It would be like the UK having 80-90,000 cases per day...UK has 4x NL population...). Unacceptable high numbers with political inaction...

Bad part of it is we see this kind of "surprise" in many European countries...It will be a very hard winter. The WHO warning of half a million deaths for Europe this winter (till march 1 2022 ?) may be even "optimistic"...

Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ;

Global cases for sunday november 21; 396,559 trend +7%, deaths 4,396 trend -2%

Europe cases sunday november 21 ; 262,752 trend +15%, deaths 2,488 trend +3%

Comparing US with Germany...cases 36,860 for Germany, trend +32% (on top of allready very high numbers !!!)  US sunday-limited testing-cases 27,484, trend -1%

German deaths 60 (=25%), US 96 (-9%)..in both countries regions with lower vaccinations see higher numbers-so very major regional differences...

Limited vaccinations are a factor-but getting ignored in most mass media is Delta+ variants being more infectious and getting better in evading immunity. Booster vaccines do matter but Europe is a bit slow on that...

NL cases +56%, deaths +34% indicating a high level of vaccinations without good monitoring of wise restrictions simply will not do the job...A short look at some other European countries for weekly trend in cases; France +81% (!!!!!), Finland +66%, Portugal +49%, Poland +40%, Denmark +29%, Italy +27%...these numbers are shocking this far into this pandemic...most of these countries have a higher level of vaccinations then most of the world...often also still lots of restrictions ! 

Growing unrest in many places [url]https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2021/11/21/anti-corona-measures-demo-in-brussels/[/url] or https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2021/11/21/anti-corona-measures-demo-in-brussels/ ...A main question is how do we get out of this crisis ? 

We may end up in phase two of a pandemic; lots of widespread social unrest...distrust of government...

A solution would be a government having clear goals...a clear strategy...And for most countries there is a major problem. Limiting restrictions for the vaccinated did result in this explosion of cases...since vaccines do not stop the spread and children often still can not get vaccinated-a lot of spread at schools... On top of that (most from US) flu may become a problem (US universities student spread...). 

-Some twitter etc. 

[url]https://twitter.com/UseBy2022[/url] or https://twitter.com/UseBy2022 ;

Don’t worry, they tell me permanent neurological damage leading to the loss of 2/5 of your senses is a mild symptom.

-

UK cases guess. Doubt we'll exceed 40k today shops very busy yesterday so people probably didnt test. Up about 5 or 6% on last Sun is my best guess. Could be as low as 38.5k but if its over 42k we are still in trouble.

DJ I did keep the less polite ones out...UK BoJo&Co simply sticking to "pandemic is over" trying to manipulate statistics...Here in NL "politics" is blaming the public for "not sticking to rules" after lifting those rules earlier since "we were moving out of this pandemic"...head of NL-CDC did not see a winterwave coming last month...this crisis was political and is getting even more political...

[url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator

Israel - third dose for kids 12-15 years  https://timesofisrael.com/health-ministry-covid-19-experts-advise-vaccine-booster-for-teens-12-15/ The 

  ministry of health recommends a third dose for all teenagers age 12-15 who received their second dose >5 months ago

DJ-In NL that age group can not even get a first vaccination still...Booster vaccines for the over 80's just started in NL...

We’ve discovered a large and persistent recombinant SARS-CoV-2 lineage in North & Central America. Hope to post a longer thread soon. Recombination as a source of new and viable virus genetic diversity needs to be taken seriously.

DJ Some "experts" claimed CoViD did run out of variants months ago...Delta+ is "very bad"...recombination may even bring much worse !!! Again STOP THE SPREAD !!!!! Emergence and widespread circulation of a recombinant SARS-CoV-2 lineage in North America  https://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2021.11.19.21266601v1 #medRxiv

link [url]https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.11.19.21266601v1#medRxiv[/url] or https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.11.19.21266601v1#medRxiv  (hope link works...)

other bad news; 




This is an article to take note of as it looks ahead to what can be expected if current transmission rates continue. New variants have not been factored into models informing policy and this could be costly

DJ [url]https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/21/is-delta-the-last-covid-super-variant[/url] or https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/21/is-delta-the-last-covid-super-variant ;

One possibility is that after the initial dramatic jumps in its genetic sequence, which gave rise to first Alpha, then Delta, Sars-CoV-2 will now mutate slowly and steadily, eventually moving beyond reach of the current vaccines, but only over the course of many years. While scientists are at pains to point out that their predictions are mostly informed speculation, some perceive this as the most likely outcome.

“I anticipate that the kind of evolution we will see is more what we call antigenic drift, where the virus gradually evolves to escape the immune system,” says Francois Balloux, director of the UCL Genetics Institute. “For influenza and other coronaviruses we know quite well, it takes about 10 years for the virus to accumulate enough changes not to be recognised by antibodies in the blood.”

-

But the alternative is the sudden appearance of a completely new strain, with game-changing transmissibility, virulence or immune-evasive properties. Ravi Gupta, professor of clinical microbiology at the University of Cambridge, refers to these strains as “super variants” and says he is 80% sure that another one will emerge. The question is when.

“We’ve got a Delta pandemic at the moment,” says Gupta. “This new Delta Plus variant is relatively wimpy compared to the kind of thing I’m talking about. It has two mutations from the Delta strain, I don’t think they are that worrisome and it hasn’t taken off in a big way in other countries. But it’s inevitable that there will be another significant variant in the next two years and it will compete with Delta and it may out-compete Delta.”

Will we see a super variant?

During the latter half of 2020, epidemiologists began to observe signs of a concerning phenomenon known as viral recombination, in which different versions of Sars-CoV-2 exchanged mutations and combined to form a totally new strain.

Thankfully, Gupta says recombination does not appear to be that common, but it remains one feasible source of a new super variant, particularly in parts of the world where sizable proportions of the population remain unvaccinated and viral strains can circulate freely. “Now that Delta is overwhelmingly the key virus, this has become less likely,” he says. “But there are large swaths of the planet that we’re not sampling and we don’t know what’s going on. So it is a very real possibility.”

The second is a series of major mutations, either resulting in a greatly enhanced version of Delta or something very different. It is thought there remains significant scope for this to happen. “While recent variants are versions of Delta, the virus has huge potential to evolve in the future,” says Gideon Schreiber, professor of biomolecular sciences at the Weizmann Institute of Science in Israel. “More complex mutations can evolve, with simultaneous mutations at more than one position, which may be more problematic.”

-

Gupta says that a greater problem, and one more likely to lead to a super variant, is the persistently high infection rate in countries such as the UK, due to the ability of Delta to transmit between vaccinated individuals. “The more infections there are per day, the more chance that there is someone out there, a patient X, who gets infected and their T-cells are not strong enough to clear the infection because they’re immune-suppressed,” he says. “So they end up having the infection over a number of days; they’ve got some antibodies knocking around because they’ve had a partial vaccine response and the virus learns to evade them and then that spills out.”

Earlier this year, Gupta published a paper that showed that this process could occur in severely ill patients who had been administered convalescent plasma laden with virus-killing antibodies. Because their immune system still couldn’t clear the virus, it learned to mutate around those antibodies. It has been speculated that the widespread use of convalescent plasma early in the pandemic was responsible for driving the emergence of variants.

-

Hanage explains that one of the reasons why the Delta variant had such an impact is because it grows extremely rapidly within human cells, before the immune system kicks into gear. As a result, people infected with Delta carry approximately 1,200 times more viral particles in their noses compared with the original Sars-CoV-2 strain and develop symptoms two to three days sooner.

Embedded press tend to underestimate risks...the article does not mention the spread of CoViD in non human hosts....

DJ-My goal with this scenario's is to inform, share thoughts...try to get some light on what to expect...NOT to push people into depression and fear !

But looking-with my very limited knowledge-on how this pandemic is going leaves little room for optimism...

Maybe one "spot of hope" could be in that we do NOT know most of this virus, variants...I want to keep some hope on we are getting out of this crisis....

Music; David Soul - Don't Give Up On Us...1976 (Starsky & Hutch) [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YY8APrYU2Gs[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YY8APrYU2Gs 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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DJ,

Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ are bad !

Reported cases november 22-reflecting SUNDAY-testing...supposed to be low ! 465,462 weekly trend +10% !

Europe cases 290,521, trend +17% ....Global 5,828 deaths reported, Europe had 3,427 of them trends +0,4/+3%...

In the top 10 for cases the only non-European country is the US still at #1 with 74,156 reported cases in this list. UK, Germany, Russia do not surprise...Hungary at #5 does surprise ! This country has less then 10 million in population...reporting 27,209 cases...NL -23,002 cases-is also making the top 10 at #7...(UK=4xNL population so NL numbers translated to UK would see 92,000 positive tests in just 1 day...).

The bad news is testing is overstretched...it may be even optimistic to think the real numbers are only 2x, 3x the reported numbers...

In many countries (central) politics fail. Governments refuse to go for lockdowns while at regional level, hospitals, all alarms have been going of for days...According to some experts on twitter UK government actively manipulating statistics to stick to "freedom"...still cases trend +9%...

Looking at most alarming trends for cases South Africa +105% (!!!) shows up ! France +82%, Spain +59%, NL +49%, Portugal +48% ....Papua New Guinea +33%, Peru +30% may indicate that what started in Europe now is going global...USA +11%, Israel +9% (!!!!), New Zealand +8%, Canada +0,5%, Australia +0,2% ...85 countries reporting an increase of cases...

Duration is becoming a very major burden on both population-less willing to follow unclear rules and healthcare-with more work for less HCW-ers...overstretched for 1,5 + year ...

So "how bad can it get" ( I did put this question elsewhere on this forum...CRS,DrPH confirmed my pretty grimm view)...without actions we may NOT survive...!

Since we are allmost 2 years in this crisis we may be able to get some idea of what works...combination of lots of "tools" can still limit some of the damage...but cases today may end up at ICU over 10 to 15 days...so the major crisis for most of Europe can not be avoided...

Lockdown-strict-no nonsense...will limit the spread, did a lot lost year in many places...

Masks/social distance as a rule till 2023 ? Duration matters !

Vaccination did limit severe cases...and it is very welcome to further increase vaccinations-but misusing vaccines to reopen may have been the main reason we are in this crisis...with virus mutating around all kind of defenses...There are lots of non mRNA vaccines also doing a good job ! We should not waste time and energy on this discussion now !

So we can get out of this crisis !!!

On an individual level we can limit social contacts, use masks, work/study from home...it may help ! But governments have to do their jobs !!!!

Only international action can get us out of this crisis and politics keeps coming up with empty words....

DJ-I am NOT an expert, NOT neutral or objective..."herd immunity strategy" may still be dominant in most countries...eventhough it is clear by now it does not work !!! Zero-CoViD did limit damage in countries that (had a chance to) use it...in my opinion the only strategy out of this crisis...but it will be a "long walk" ...

The alternative may be worse...as we soon may find out again...

end of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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part 2, twitter etc.

Some NL twitters [url]https://twitter.com/Ammer_B[/url] or https://twitter.com/Ammer_B and [url]https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ[/url] or https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ ...

DJ basic message is we are on our way to "Code Black" ...but politics just does not want to see it (and allready started blaming the population for not following unclear rules...one of the causes of increasing public unrest). The NL story-more or less-may be the same for most of Europe...Those that can slow down disaster fail to do so...

Let me be very clear about NL...political inaction now will result in thousends of deaths in NL till april 1 2022...We are talking about a very major-avoidable-disaster with those responsible in taking steps to avoid this disaster refusing to do their job. 

It is allready clear who will suffer most; the poor that allways have to pay the price for damage done by a rich elite...

In the mean time is the rich elite allready spreading the virus-again-around the globe...Virusses fly for free !

[url]https://twitter.com/peacockflu[/url] or https://twitter.com/peacockflu

Two quick hits from Monday genome update. 1st, thanks to another drop of 

 we can see AY.4.2.1 separately for the first time. A little Mannelijke magiër-level playing with the lineage filter tree lets us see it growing (erratically) as a proportion of AY.4.2 https://covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw?lineages=AY.4.2%2CAY.4.2.1&colours=2%2C3&lineage=AY.4.2.1&date=2021-11-13

DJ Also on NL twitter...testing is at capacity in most places...meaning we will miss a lot of infections and spread...certainly within the vaccinated less likely to get tested...So with even less testing it is even more likely we will miss new (sub)variants...

[url]https://twitter.com/UseBy2022[/url] or https://twitter.com/UseBy2022 ;

Bristol has pretty much been at or above 400 cases per 100k since fucking June. In fact the only time it dipped was when Immensa told them they were negative for a laugh. I mean come on. Bristol ! If you are what "Herd Immunity" looks like we are totally screw. The colour Purple

-

Am I really the only person wondering if it is now in the water supply in Austria..

-

44,917 UK Cases reported today - that is very high for a Monday (UP 12% on yesterday which is fairly high) So UK is UP 13% Week on Week. Most of this Growth is driven by England which at 36,478 cases is up 16%. Pushes the UK  Day Ave up towards 42k and is bad news.

DJ (Language !) "Living with the virus" is a political slogan not realism....It will keep mutating, getting worse..."Dying with the virus" may be more realistic ! 

One of the reasons why cases are exploding all over Europe may be "opening up for the vaccinated" is a very bad idea !!!! Vaccinated still spread the virus, still get ill....If you do not stop that (translated in a lockdown !) level of infections will remain high...Trust in any political action will drop even further...

AY46.6 with ORF1a:A3571V ? 

-

Couple of questions for anyone ? particularly 

 and 

  Looking at AY39 in Austria, Pango has it as B.1.617.2 Usher has it as AY.39 Most of the Samples are from the Institute of water quality. Do they take water samples & sequence from them in Austria ?

DJ Experts trying to find out what is happening...One of the reasons why there are so many Delta(+)sub-variants is that some variants withh a lot of similarity get different names in different countries...making it even more unclear what is going on (as far as I understand it all...)

AY43 Big chunk of Delta in many of the countries in Europe that are having huge second waves. Everyone seems to think its nothing special and its just a founder or reclassification thing. However its now at 5.1% in the UK and increasing at about (VERY roughly) 0.4% a week.

-

AY.4.2 up 2.2% on last week now at 16.4% darker colours on map indicate higher prevalence eg Torridge Link to Data is here https://covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw?lineage=AY.4.2

DJ Earlier new variants of concern were very clear to see in the statistics/samples...With Delta (global 99,5% of the cases=Delta) some sub-variants are increasing, others go down...

What I make of it was Delta had a R0 of between 5 and 8...new types of Delta are pushing that R0 up...and have been doing so for months (in fact april did see Delta explode in India, Delta+ soon after in Nepal...so Delta has had over half a year to "play around" and mutate...

Science is running behind facts...models try to make a realistic view...but so far tend to be much to optimistic...

We are not leading the way on vaccines any longer, in Europe we are mid-table at best.


Afbeelding

DJ Some realism on (booster)vaccines would be welcome...both experts and vaccine producers were clear you need BOTH vaccines AND restrictions...

[url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ;




"By the end of this winter pretty much everyone in Germany will have been vaccinated, recovered or died." But, what if the #SARS2 wave nevertheless reappears & by the end of the next winter also everyone's vaccinated, recovered or dead? And the next...

-

We will never be "through" with #SARS2 if NPIs are abolished, protection vs. infection wanes after 6 months & variants keep appearing. At best we can say we will attenuate outcomes with vaccinations. Though that ignores #LongCovid & accumulating damage from repeated reinfections. 

-




I believe Israel's freshly accumulated immunity & a renewed vaccination (5-11+boosting 12-15) can prevent a wave like last year's. But, soon, a decision awaits whether & when a new round of boosters is needed. The spring wave might prove crucial (in 2020 vaccinations crushed it).

-So, is there any new information Israel has to offer about the future? After falling precipitously for two months, infections lately stalled just below 2020's levels and are worryingly near the moment when Israel's last winter ..

DJ Israel may allready be seeing limits to what booster vaccines can do...underlining the need for Non Pharma Interventions...

[url]https://twitter.com/drericding[/url] or https://twitter.com/drericding




Almost all the northern states undergoing a resurgence. Part of the US is quickly following Europe’s surge like clockwork. Booster rollout and kids vaccination rollout must be faster—masks rules & ventilation guidelines must be added + mass testing. #COVID19 #MaskUp #ventilation

DJ Besides that-STOP THE SPREAD...why international air travel is on pre-pandemic level in some regions...CRAZY !

DJ I did read (most likely NL news) Saxony-Germany close to triage...unvaccinated may have less perspectives in treatment, may need more time in hospital/ICU so may become less likely to get hospital care in the coming "Code Black"...NL twitter suggesting we may allready be in "Code Black" (in some regions both of NL and Europe) but it may be "kept out of the news to avoid panic"....

One hospital also asking HCW-ers testing positive for CoViD to return to their workplace...indicating how overstretched healthcare has become....Increased violence in hospitals is also increasing HCW-ers with sickleave...hospitals are increasing investments in security...instead of in HCW-ers...

End of part 2....In part 3 I will see if FluTrackers has interesting items... 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Since we are in a very major global health crisis I take room to "get a view" on what is happening...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/901004-ivermectin-a-useful-treatment-for-covid-19-coronavirus-some-discussion-and-studies?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/901004-ivermectin-a-useful-treatment-for-covid-19-coronavirus-some-discussion-and-studies?view=stream latest; Dr.John Campbell did another video on Ivermectin;

New Pfizer antiviral and ivermectin, a pharmacodynamic analysis New Pfizer antiviral, PF-07321332, C₂₃H₃₂F₃N₅O₄ 

-

Dr. Campbell weighs in on this article. I agree 100% with his comment that he is greedy - he wants both effective vaccines and great treatment options. I do not know why the woke culture to trying to make us choose? Why can't we have both?

-

I am so "over it" with the US health departments. They all disagree with each other in varying degrees. The mask fiasco is one example. This is why this site recommendation is to consult with your medical practitioner.

As to the India situation - I really like John Campbell but these outbreaks run in waves and the India wave was hitting a downturn when the kits were distributed anyway. I am not sure there is any correlation between the wave downturn and some of the contents of the kits. Overall the kits are probably better than nothing since they include masks and an oximeter. Time will tell as the pandemic is not over.

I would personally love it if any of the known and inexpensive drugs already available were a safe and effective alternative to a vaccine. I am just not convinced. I have not asked for ivermectin or hydroxy. I know that pandemics take a few years to run the cycle. I am not comfortable with taking either long term at this point. I am also not thrilled with two vaccine shots a year - for how long? A couple more years?

If I sound frustrated it is because I am. Since I am high risk I have restricted my outings for more than a year. I was not happy to take the first rounds of vaccine and now I am trying to decide on the booster. Moderna is not approved yet for use as a booster so I have time to consider this. I am not happy about the available drugs either. Masks give some level of protection so I use them. I think as a high risk person I am fairly screwed for the next year at least. I just have to accept this - as irritating as it is.

I know many people are just living as usual. And that is their choice. It is not mine. I respect other people's choices and I hope people respect mine.

DJ The picture remains unclear...however Ivermectin most likely will be in use in lots of poor countries...may have some effect..."many shades of grey"...Maybe some elements of Ivermectin do show effect...offer some perspective...Maybe related [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/treatments/928413-jci-insight-sangivamycin-is-highly-effective-against-sars-cov-2-in-vitro-and-has-favorable-drug-properties[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/treatments/928413-jci-insight-sangivamycin-is-highly-effective-against-sars-cov-2-in-vitro-and-has-favorable-drug-properties ;
Abstract

Sangivamycin is a nucleoside analog that is well-tolerated by humans and broadly active against phylogenetically distinct viruses, including arenaviruses, filoviruses, and orthopoxviruses. 

Here, we show that sangivamycin is a potent antiviral against multiple variants of replicative severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) with half-maximal inhibitory concentration (IC50) in the nanomolar range in several cell types. 

Sangivamycin suppressed SARS-CoV-2 replication with greater efficacy than remdesivir (another broad-spectrum nucleoside analog). When we investigated sangivamycin's potential for clinical administration, pharmacokinetic, ADME (absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion), and toxicity properties were found to be favorable. 

When tested in combination with remdesivir, efficacy was additive rather than competitive against SARS-CoV-2. The proven safety in humans, long half-life, potent antiviral activity (compared to remdesivir), and combinatorial potential suggest that sangivamycin is likely to be efficacious alone or in combination therapy to suppress viremia in patients. 

Sangivamycin may also have the ability to help combat drug-resistant or vaccine-escaping SARS-CoV-2 variants since it is antivirally active against several tested variants. 

Our results support the pursuit of sangivamycin for further preclinical and clinical development as a potential coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) therapeutic.

DJ Any progres is welcome ! I think there is allready that much research/findings on all kind of medication limiting severity, risk of infection that-if we would be using it on a large scale-could limit pressure on (global) healthcare...But timing has been essential...vaccines much to slow to effect this pandemic enough...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/928407-experimental-chewing-gum-may-reduce-virus-spread[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/928407-experimental-chewing-gum-may-reduce-virus-spread ;

Experimental chewing gum reduces virus in saliva

An experimental chewing gum containing a protein that "traps" coronavirus particles could limit the amount of virus in saliva and help curb transmission when infected people are talking, breathing or coughing, researchers believe. The gum contains copies of the ACE2 protein found on cell surfaces, which the virus uses as a gateway to break into cells and infect them. In test-tube experiments using saliva and swab samples from infected individuals, virus particles attached themselves to the ACE2 "receptors" in the chewing gum. As a result, the viral load in the samples fell by more than 95%, the research team from the University of Pennsylvania reported in Molecular Therapy. The gum feels and tastes like conventional chewing gum, can be stored for years at normal temperatures, and chewing it does not damage the ACE2 protein molecules, the researchers said. Using gum to reduce viral loads in saliva , they suggest, would add to the benefit of vaccines and would be particularly useful in countries where vaccines are not yet available or affordable...

DJ Also welcome news...What happened to Brazil/Sao Paulo mouth wash against CoViD ?  Chewing gum as decoy...with virus particles allready in the mouth sticking to the chewing gum-at least some...may be simple, cheap, affordable.. !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/928399-cidrap-feds-tout-covid-19-vaccine-mandate-booster-doses[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/928399-cidrap-feds-tout-covid-19-vaccine-mandate-booster-doses ;

Though vaccine mandates remain a hot-button issue, they are helping boost coverage federal officials say, with the Biden administration announcing today that 95% of the federal workforce complied by today's deadline.
The announcement at a briefing today comes amid a steady rise in US COVID-19 activity and a strong push for booster doses, just days before Thanksgiving. Meanwhile, in Europe—well into a fifth surge—unrest flared in a handful of countries as some groups pushed back against stronger government measures to slow the surges that are poised to overrun health systems.

Cases rise heading into holidays

Though cases are well below September levels when the United States was coming out of its summer surge, more than 30 states are reporting sustained rises in new cases, according to the New York Times. For example, cases in New York are up 22% compared to the past week, with hospitalizations up 20%.
At a White House COVID-19 briefing today, Rochelle Walensky, MD, MPH, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), said the 7-day average of daily new cases is 92,800, which reflects an increase of 18% over last week's 7-day average. She added that the weekly average for hospitalizations is up 6%.
For deaths, the number of people who have died from their infections in 2021 has now passed the toll in 2020, the first year of the pandemic, according to data from the federal government and Johns Hopkins.
The number of Americans fully vaccinated against COVID-19 has risen to 59.2%, while 69.5% of eligible groups have received at least one dose, according to the CDC tracker.

Strong federal employee vaccine uptake

Following the CDC's recommendation last week that expanded booster eligibility to 35 million people, federal health officials today pleaded with Americans to shore up their protection ahead of winter and when people will be gathering for holidays.
Anthony Fauci, MD, White House chief medical adviser, detailed the impact of boosters shown by studies in several countries. "Boosters work even better than peak response after the second dose," he said.
Jeff Zients, White House COVID-19 coordinator, said that, over the weekend, 3 million people received their booster shots and that efforts to deliver extra protection are accelerating.
He also said the federal employee mandate is driving more people to get their primary vaccine series and that federal employees make up the nation's largest workforce.
"The goal is to protect workers, not punish them," he said, adding that the small percentage who didn't comply with the mandate will receive education and counseling.

Protests in Europe over COVID measures

As pandemic activity escalates again in Europe and more countries eye strong measures such as lockdowns and vaccine mandates, protests flared over the weekend in some countries' cities.
In Brussels yesterday, protests that drew an estimated 35,000 people started out peacefully but turned violent when some clashed with police, according to Reuters. Some protestors threw rocks and smoke bombs at police, who responded with water cannons and tear gas.
Belgium is averaging nearly 14,000 new cases a day, and last week the country imposed wider use of masks and telecommuting.

DJ It ain't what you say, itś the way that you say it....Mandatory vaccines NEED good communications ! Maybe in healthcare employers may be in a position to make vaccines mandatory....in other sectors employers are NOT in that position...government is.... Also how do you want to control mandatory vaccines ? Will you offer choices (mRNA and non-mRNA vaccines) ? What about boosters ? Under 18 y/o ? 

I am not against mandatory vaccines...we have had them in the past. Point is restrictions, non-pharma interventions do work better...Even vaccinations can not do without NPI/restrictions ! 

We are in this crisis because many governments opened up using vaccination-levels as an excuse to "save the economy"....dropping restrictions...

On that basis I am AGAINST mandatory vaccinations...in my opinion governments did misuse vaccines for political goals...Not to end the pandemic...more PR...

You can not DEMAND people to take vaccines/medication/medical intervention because you-as a government-did make a mess of it ! (But you may strongly advise people to accept both vaccines and restrictions as having the best chance to get out of this crisis...). 

This pandemic is more and more a political crisis...with in general politicians seen as liars...regaining respect may need new politicians...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/928415-infection-herpes-zoster-and-covid-19-infection-a-coincidence-or-a-causal-relationship[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/928415-infection-herpes-zoster-and-covid-19-infection-a-coincidence-or-a-causal-relationshipAbstract

The first cases of COVID-19 were reported in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. Skin manifestations of COVID-19 vary, among which herpes zoster has recently been found to be associated with the infection. We studied the available literature regarding COVID-19-associated herpes zoster (HZ). We searched the PubMed and Scopus databases for available literature till 20th of May 2021 using the following terms: 'Herpes zoster' or 'Varicella zoster virus' and "COVID-19" or "coronavirus disease" or "SARS-CoV-2". This search revealed 87 publications, of which 29 articles met the inclusion criteria. A total of 29 patients had HZ associated with COVID-19 infection. The patients' ages ranged from 7 to 82 years, averaging 56 years. Thirteen patients (45%) were men and 16 (55%) women. We summarized the demographic data, clinical data, comorbidities, treatment used, lymphocyte count, and distribution and timeline of HZ rash in COVID patients. Lymphopenia was prevalent in 86.6% of patients (where lymphocyte data were available). We discuss possible causes of HZ due to COVID-19. More and larger studies are needed to confirm any relationship between these two infections; however, this study may pave the way for similar studies on this topic.

Keywords: COVID-19; Herpes zoster; Lymphopenia; Varicilla zoster virus.

DJ-[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shingles[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ShinglesShingles and chickenpox are distinct human diseases but are closely related in their life cycles. Both originate from infection of an individual with the varicella zoster virus (VZV). Chickenpox, also called varicella, results from the initial infection with the virus, typically occurring during childhood or adolescence.[1] Once the chickenpox has resolved, the virus can remain inactive (dormant) in human nerve cells for years or decades,[1] after which it may reactivate. Shingles results when the dormant varicella virus is reactivated.[1] Then the virus travels along nerve bodies to nerve endings in the skin, producing blisters.[7] During an outbreak of shingles, exposure to the varicella virus found in shingles blisters can cause chickenpox in someone who has not yet had chickenpox; this initial infection will not trigger shingles, however.[10] How the virus remains dormant in the body or subsequently re-activates is not well understood.[1]

So the virus may be hidden in the body and get reactivited by a CoViD-19 infection...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zoster_vaccine[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zoster_vaccine  for some also here vaccination may limit risks...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/other-coronavirus/928422-eclinicalmedicine-mers-cov-confirmation-among-6-873-suspected-persons-and-relevant-epidemiologic-and-clinical-features-saudi-arabia-2014-to-2019[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/other-coronavirus/928422-eclinicalmedicine-mers-cov-confirmation-among-6-873-suspected-persons-and-relevant-epidemiologic-and-clinical-features-saudi-arabia-2014-to-2019 ; Background: Of the three lethal coronaviruses, in addition to the ongoing pandemic-causing SARS-CoV 2, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) remains in circulation. Information on MERS-CoV has relied on small sample of patients. We updated the epidemiology, laboratory and clinical characteristics, and survival patterns of MERS-CoV retrospectively with the largest sample of followed patients.
Methods: We conducted a retrospective review of line-listed records of non-random, continuously admitted patients who were suspected (6,873) or confirmed with MERS-CoV (501) admitted to one of the four MERS-CoV referral hospitals in Saudi Arabia, 2014-2019.

-

nterpretations: With two-thirds of the symptomatic persons developing multiorgan complications MERS-CoV remains the coronavirus with the highest severity (29%) and case fatality rate (21%) among the three lethal coronaviruses. Metabolic abnormalities appear to be an independent risk factor for sustained MERS-CoV transmission. The poorly understood transmission dynamics and non-specific clinical and laboratory features call for high index of suspicion among respiratory disease experts to help early detection of outbreaks. We reiterate the need for case control studies on transmission.

DJ MERS is NOT over yet...I think it may be realistic to expect some further "developments" as long as we are in this CoViD-19 pandemic...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/asia-ad/asia-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/928392-sri-lanka-covid-19-cases-of-unknown-origin-rising-hospitalisation-at-approx-50-pct[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/asia-ad/asia-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/928392-sri-lanka-covid-19-cases-of-unknown-origin-rising-hospitalisation-at-approx-50-pctCOVID-19 infections are on the rise again in Sri Lanka with authorities unable to trace the origin of a majority of daily cases, health officials said on Monday (22), with about 50 percent of active cases currently hospitalised according to government data.

However, the government information department confirmed 31 deaths for Sunday (21), an increase of 11 from the 19 confirmed for the previous day.

Health Services Deputy Director General Dr Hemantha Herath told reporters on Monday that the percentage of cases whose origin cannot be traced is increasing.

The daily caseload has been gradually increasing since Sri Lanka relaxed a lockdown and an inter-province travel ban at the end of October. The information department confirmed 735 new infections for Monday, an increase of 38 from Sunday’s 697.

“Even 700 cases a day is considered a critical situation,” said Dr Herath...

and [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/asia-ad/asia-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/928391-covid-19-situation-%E2%80%98very-dangerous-%E2%80%99-says-korea%E2%80%99s-disease-control-chief[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/asia-ad/asia-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/928391-covid-19-situation-%E2%80%98very-dangerous-%E2%80%99-says-korea%E2%80%99s-disease-control-chiefThe head of Korea’s disease control agency said Monday that the state of the COVID-19 outbreak here has gone from “low risk” to “high risk” over the last three weeks as the country began its phased return to normal.

Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency Commissioner Jeong Eun-kyeong told a televised briefing that “intensive care beds at Seoul hospitals were nearly full to the brink,” with other metrics worsening all across the country.

DJ The European healthcrisis is turning into a global health crisis high speed...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream latests...

What's behind the rapid disappearance of the delta variant in Japan? It could be self-extinction.

BY OSAMU TSUKIMORI
STAFF WRITER
Nov 18, 2021

Why did Japan’s fifth and biggest wave of the coronavirus pandemic, driven by the supercontagious delta variant, suddenly come to an abrupt end following a seemingly relentless rise in new infections? And what made Japan different from other developed countries that are now seeing a fresh surge in new cases?
...
Many scholars point to a variety of possibilities, which include one of the highest vaccination rates among advanced countries with 75.7% of residents fully vaccinated as of Wednesday. Other potential factors are the social distancing and mask-wearing measures that are now deeply embedded in Japanese society.

But the chief reason may be related to the genetic changes that the coronavirus undergoes during reproduction, at a pace of around two mutations per month. According to a potentially revolutionary theory proposed by Ituro Inoue, a professor at the National Institute of Genetics, the delta variant in Japan accumulated too many mutations to the virus’s error-correcting, non-structural protein called nsp14. As a result, the virus struggled to repair the errors in time, ultimately leading to “self-destruction.”

DJ I would love to believe CoViD-Delta getting self-destructive...(the link also has some discussion on it)....cases -22%, high level of vaccinations, older population...Maybe vaccines and NPI doing the job ? Wishfull thinking and over-optimism do NOT help !

-Music ; R.E.M. - End Of The World As We Know It...[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0GFRcFm-aY[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0GFRcFm-aY ...

DJ We can not return to an old normal...but "feel fine" new normal does not have to be worse !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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A bit quiet on this forum...no doubt related to US thanksgiving tomorrow...Just the start of a lot of family-get-together spread events in december...

Any serious government in Europe, America's would go for LOCKDOWNS NOW !!!! To avoid further disaster...most people on this forum are aware of the risks...but on an individual level we can NOT stop this pandemic...

DJ,

-numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ;

Global cases for november 23 ; 557,723 weekly trend +10%, global reported deaths 8,110 trend +2%

Europe cases 337,068 - trend +17%, deaths 4,349 - trend +3%...given the collapse of healthcare in most of Europe between 1 maybe even up to 10% of that number of people - on a daily basis - may be dead...For Europe we may be seeing daily deaths last week of december between 3,000 and 30,000..

The WHO raised its expectations from 500,000 deaths before spring to 700,000.....if you divide that over 100 days you end up with 7,000 deaths per day...the WHO-Europe region also includes some countries worldometers puts with Asia...The worldometers average for the last 10 days for a smaller region then the WHO-Europe region is allready around the 700,000...

So with the best kinds of optimism I can find the WHO estimate of 700,000 more deaths for Europe is underestimating the crisis allready...I think-only for Europe most likely we are talking about 3 to 4 million deaths till march 1 - 2022 if you also include hospital care in very major crisis...

-My goal with scenario's is trying to get a realistic view of "what is happening"...some of the problems;

.Vaccinated people were told "they were safe" while they are not safe...(In NL "dance with Janssen...young people were told-by our government-get a Janssen vaccine this afternoon, dance this evening....Our "minister of justice" himself breaking rules...did make a "song" about how we could stop wearing facemasks just a few months ago...("Zeg mondkapje waar ga je henen"). 

.Embedded experts did write over-optimistic scenario's that were overstretched to fit political wishfull thinking..."saving the economy"...Limit economic damage has been #1 all the time...control over this pandemic was a minor goal...

.Illusions of "herd immunity"...both "natural" and "vaccine" immunity (vaccines activate natural immunity) would stop this pandemic...some experts/politicians claimed...(In social media Dr. John Campbell was one of them...I do not doubt his expertise, but I very serious doubt his sense of realism...seeing a "silver lining" even in the worst of hurricane-clouds...Unrealistic over-optimistic...).

.Pandemic=endemic wordgames..."living with the virus" non-sense...also the product of an unhealthy mix of some "experts" and "the worst politics can bring you"....Science used for political goals can easily become science fiction !

.Since the virus was/is allowed to spread-also in vaccinated...is spreading for over a year in wildlife/non-human hosts...we now face a number of (sub)variants we have not seen before...

.Testing/contact tracing has run out of capacity in many places...Sequencing was a problem all the time-may be missing a lot of developments now...

In short; We are still driving in a car in a dead-end road but instead of decreasing speed we did increase speed...and the end of that road is getting closer. 

-What to do ?

STOP THE SPREAD !!!! DJ-The only realistic vision is Zero-CoViD !!!! China and a few other (SE Asian) countries are sticking to that idea...For some islands it may be achievable within a year...(New Zealand, Ireland, Iceland...Australia is the only continent (okay Antarctica...) with good perspectives...).

So a "mop-it-up" strategy may be needed...with very strict travel rules to stop spreading the virus around the globe !

Realism on vaccines is needed...They can NOT stop this pandemic, booster-vaccines may help limiting pressure on healthcare..buy time. But reopening because 90% of the population is vaccinated is crazy...has been crazy from the start ! Even 100% vaccination will NOT stop the spread !!!

The present vaccines do a good job limiting severe health issues NOT stopping the spread...why is that ignored ? 

Prepare for a "long road"...getting rid of this virus may take decades...Not getting rid of it may kill us all ! So there is no choice ! (Just like in climate collapse...there is no choice...you have to stop it to survive !). 

-I just watched NL 7 AM news...Is NL a part of the US ? Is NL news supposed to be "neutral" ? @#$#&%* !!! In many ways NL is as indipendent is the former GDR from the Soviet Union was....

Cold wars seem to be global priority; "supporting rebels in Myanmar fighting for democracy"...Syria # 3, or whatever....US trying to regime-change yet another country in its conflicts with Russia-Iran-China (etc). By the way-in some more respected lists of freedom of press the US is at #60 or so...not doing very well...NL, Scandinavia in general in the top 10...In most other lists on access to healthcare, education Scandinavia, NL, New Zealand, other European countries make the top 10...

We have been waiting for a next pandemic for several decades...but it looks like we did NOT prepare for one...."Just in time delivery of patients" was saving costs...with ICU-staff, specialists being very limited...HCW-ers often getting less pay then working in a supermarket can give....

This pandemic is just one of many crises-outcome of bad politics. Starting a war and then letting refugees drown or die in deserts is how "we" see basic human rights...Ping-pong with people at US-Mexico, Poland-Belarus, Greece-Turkey borders....till they are dead...

Rich countries creating lots of problems but putting the pain to the poor...denial as how to get votes populism...

The old normal was very sick....this pandemic is just a symptom...we can do better, we have to do better !


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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part 2,

Growing social unrest...evin in my town...[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eehledo3Hlk[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eehledo3Hlk

DJ-I do not agree with the protesters that there should be "no restrictions" but I share their frustration and anger on "politics" blaming the public for still being in this pandemic while politics made a complete mess of it....The NL situation may not be that different from many other (European) countries...Germany still has more restrictions...In the UK "BoJo&Co" claim there is no pandemic; manipulate statistics...Embedded press (bbc-the UK-RT....) again NOT doing a very good job. 

Riots do not help...but the present political elite is part of the problem...in many countries "saving the economy-blaming the public"...a total lack of self-reflection...( There are politicians doing a better job...as allways there are exceptions ! ). 

Many countries are on the eve of months of strict lockdowns...the main reason is failing bla-bla politics and embedded experts....

Yes-I am very angry ! And I do expect much more social unrest...Police already claiming they do not have the capacity to maintain a lot of the restrictions. 

Even wider-maybe even worse-"our" healthminister wants to increase ICU-capacity...hospitals again tell him there is no staff for ICU...Politics disconnected with reality...

I am in a very "good position"...groceries can be delivered, I have a social bubble, a private garden...For me it is a different story then for people living with an extended family in an old appartment...Working/school from home is not the same for all...

Some more on the present numbers...[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table ;

Highest increases of cases in some major countries top 10 (sort of);

#1 South Africa +131%  last week 2,031 this week 4,694 deaths +12% this week 113...summer on its way...

#2  France +78% last week 78,507...this week 140,027 France still has some restrictions...vaccinations may be limited in some (urban) area's...deaths +54% this week 382.

#3 Papua New Guinea +76% part of Oceania we often forget cases last week 881, this week 1,551 deaths +309% last week 23, this week 94.

#4 Spain +62% for cases, deaths -25%

#5 Belgium cases +51%, deaths +31%

#6 Portugal +49%, deaths +39% over 90% of population fully vaccinated....

#7 NL +39%, deaths +52% also high level of vaccinations...

#8 Poland +39%, deaths +75% lower level of vaccinations proberbly one reason for more deaths...

#9 South Korea +32%, deaths +37%

#10 Germany +31%, deaths +15% maybe a bit less vaccinations in some regions-but compensated with more-longer lasting restrictions, more ICU...

Some other countries to watch;

Peru, cases +24%, deaths +22%,

Vietnam, cases +16%, deaths +45%,

USA, cases +6%, deaths +1%,

UK, cases +9%, deaths -6% (excess deaths may be high "of other causes"...false statistics...)

Israel, cases -6%, deaths +107% (last week 14, this week 29) booster-effect

Japan, cases -20%, deaths +57% dr.j.c. video "miracle in Japan" pseudo-science [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1GF0H9V_1g[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1GF0H9V_1g on "self-destructing Delta variant"...more likely vaccinations and restrictions showing effect...

India, cases -13%, deaths +5% (numbers at best may give some indications)

Still 85 countries reporting increases. A mix of restrictions AND vaccinations may help. There is NO self-destructive Delta variant ! Not in Japan or elsewhere...this is pseudo science/wishfull thinking..."silver lining in hurricane clouds" non-sense !

Self-destructing virusses claims stop countries from taking action ! 

In my opinion societies are splitting up in 3 groups;

-1. No restrictions/no vaccines (with lots of sub-groups, based on religion, some also climate change deniers etc.)

-2. "Main stream" more or less still accepting present politics/strategies

-3. More radical groups...often relating this pandemic with climate change etc...

Since group 1 and 3 are growing...and both are fed up with present politics there is "a lot of pressure" growing. I think it would be wise if governments would reform to get more public support, increase international cooperation....(or face the consequences...). 

end of part 2

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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part 3...twitter/flutrackers

DJ We may end up these months with the pandemic getting a bit more similarity with the Spanish Flu...still it is NOT a flu ! (One could wish it was "just a flu"). Maybe "we" are learning a lesson the hard way ? 

[url]https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ[/url] or https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ (part re-tweets) ;

Dutch hospitals prepare for Code Black. Priority will be given to younger patients, health care workers & those who are likely to have a short stay in the ICU.

Such a terrible and entirely preventable tragedy. The 'luck of the draw to decide' who lives and who dies because healthcare is overwhelmed in NL. All because of lack of basic public health measure and a policy of mass infection. Will the architects of this be held accountable?

DJ The present NL government did make such a mess in many ways...and still get away with it...




Vanaf nu iedere dag tot er echte maatregelen komen. De komende corona crash uitgelegd: https://sargasso.nl/de-komende-corona-crash/ Vandaag 23.000 nieuwe gevallen betekent: - Over 8 dagen 400 ziekenhuisopnames, per dag - Over 12 dagen 80 IC opnames, per dag - Over 16 dagen 70 sterfgevallen, per dag.

DJ The numbers are clear and well known; 23,000 cases today= 400 hospitalcases after 6 days, 80ICU cases in 12 days, 70 deaths in 16 days...Only factor changing is there may no be hospital capacity left...Of course politics could decide to further limit testing..."so cases will go down"....

Also on this NL twitter; "lockdown is bad for mental health" excuse/nonsense...not locking down when needed is far worse ! 

Head of NL-CDC on october 20: we will not see a lockdown this winter....This "expert" also claims medication will save us from now on...Pre-caution seems to be unknown with this "group"....

In NL we have "safety regions" on lower levels. Mayors, hospitals see the crash coming and most likely are allready in "Code Black" modus (hospitals out of capacity to deal with influx). Hospitals drilling for triage...Germany still accepting NL patients as long as they can...

In Eastern Europe situation is far worse...lack of vaccines however does mean "people do not stay that long in ICU-beds" (because they are dead often within hours...).  Vaccination-status itself may not be a criterium for "the last bed", not being vaccinated may mean chances of recovery are that bad you simply will not get in....(a.o. in Saxony-Germany reality...Ukraine, Poland far worse...)

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/11/24/hard-choices-needed-prevent-months-long-lockdown-outbreak-expert[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/11/24/hard-choices-needed-prevent-months-long-lockdown-outbreak-expert

It is "incredibly important" that the Cabinet dares to make hard choices if the Netherlands is going to get through this winter without a months-long hard lockdown, medical microbiologist and outbreak team member Marc Bonten said to Nieuwsuur. He echoed the urgency of his colleague Diederik Gommers, ICU expert and OMT member.

Earlier on Tuesday, Gommers urged the Cabinet to stop arguing about the 2G access policy and start looking at a hard lockdown because hospitals are fast approaching "code black." Then there are not enough hospital beds available for everyone who needs treatment, and doctors have to choose between patients. 


"Look at what it is like in hospitals. Look at today's figures. Look at the figures of recent weeks. Look at the support for the current measures and how they are being implemented. Something has to be done, and politicians have to take responsibility for this. Both the Cabinet and the parliamentary factions," Bonten said to Nieuwsuur on Tuesday evening. 

According to Bonten, politicians are currently trying to prevent code black while not taking harsh measures and not coercing anyone to get vaccinated. And that is a combination that will not work. 

DJ Since we did see over 20,000 cases per day for more then a week, increasing ICU (and hospital) staff may be at its limits de facto we are allready in "Code Black" with spreading patients all over the country, sending other patients home (where there may be no further support because care is overstretched there as well...) filling up the last beds...

Staff is a growing, very serious, problem. We may have the beds, the technical stuff, but nobody to work with it left...Most of cases in NL are linked with schools. Unvaccinated children infecting their parents...spreading it further...But also by now a record number of allmost 900 care centers reporting cases the last 4 weeks...These deaths are seen as deaths of old age...not showing up in NL CoViD statistics...So the official number is still below 20,000  while a more realistic number may be around 40,000+ ....

[url]https://twitter.com/Ammer_B[/url] or https://twitter.com/Ammer_B ; "Follow the rules" while by now no one any longer has any idea on those rules....We again have to keep 1,5 meter distance now "as a rule-not an advice" ...If there was police capacity you could get a fine for breaking that rule...

Government going for "2G" so vaccinated/recovered (but not those who tested negative = 3G) still can go to cinema's, restaurants etc...without the social distance rule (because immunity...)....Government totally disconnected with reality....

[url]https://twitter.com/UseBy2022[/url] or https://twitter.com/UseBy2022 on the UK; Morning Twitter. Today is the day the UK should report 50k+ cases just from the simple math that Wednesdays number is usually 20% above Tuesday. They probably won't of course. The new Loughborough Immensa lab failure and the optics of spreading that number will prevent it. 

Are you guys seeing this cluster in Czech 

 

 

 

 

 

  Delta with S: T19R, V70I  T95I, A123-  T124-  G142D, E156-, F157-, R158G, Q183E  L452R, T478K, D614G, P681R, D950N V70i A123 del T124 del Q183E 

Thank you for speaking out @GuptaR_lab I used to be a trusting follower of @BBCNews but their reporting of the pandemic in UK has destroyed my trust. Grateful for the scientists who post on Twitter. In the past I’d never have imagined Twitter would be more reliable than @BBCNews

DJ Total system failure/collapse....[url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator

Yep, it's getting tense again: Israel's R above 1, similar timing as in November 2020. But, a huge difference this time is that 60% of last week's cases are among 0-19 unvaccinated, while at the end of 2020, the 0-19 cohort made only a 1/3 of total weekly cases.
 

DJ More science to ignore...booster 1 may provide 50% of protection from initial vaccinations...booster 2 after 6 months may only provide 25%...This is NOT a flu-virus ! So it would be wise to act like it is a flu...CoViD-19 is far worse !!!

US pandemic response in a nutshell. -Cases & deaths going up -> direct attention to something else. -Also direct attention away from how we screwed up boosters (only 41% of seniors. <30% of >50). -80% of those who have been eligible for months is nothing to brag about.

DJ US may be in a worse shape then most of Western Europe ! 

[url]https://twitter.com/peacockflu[/url] or https://twitter.com/peacockflu




A final observation - this variant contains not one, but two furin cleavage site mutations - P681H (seen in Alpha, Mu, some Gamma, B.1.1.318) combined with N679K (seen in C.1.2 amongst others) - this is the first time I've seen two of these mutations in a single variant...

-




Just spotted: very small cluster of variant associated with Southern Africa with very long branch length and really awful Spike mutation profile including RBD - K417N, N440K, G446S, S477N, T478K, E484A, Q493K, G496S, Q498R, N501Y, Y505H

-



Full Spike profile: A67V, Δ69-70, T95I, G142D/Δ143-145, Δ211/L212I, ins214EPE, G339D, S371L, S373P, S375F, K417N, N440K, G446S, S477N, T478K, E484A, Q493K, G496S, Q498R, N501Y, Y505H, T547K, D614G, H655Y, N679K, P681H, N764K, D796Y, N856K, Q954H, N969K, L981F

 Another South African variant ? 

A short look at Flutrackers ; [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream  (Also some comments on NL police...I may not agree with those views...Though there have been incidents of police wrong doings...) ;  The funniest part is that, the Japanese prof who claimed Delta's over its error
> catastrophe threshold, was referring to a particular mutation: NSP14:A394V
> Which actually is one of defining mutations of all Deltas, has >92% prevalence
> now (100% in Japan), and still growingClown face

Music...[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aOx2I6DgqXY[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aOx2I6DgqXY ;

They Are Coming To Take Me Away...Napoleon XIV... crazy clip...watch at own risk...

Mus-

-

DJ

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 24 2021 at 11:09pm

DJ...looking at the end of yesterday-part 3 is a mess...sorry for that....Overload of info/limited time...

I hope US/Canada will have a SAFE thanksgiving !

Still my goal is to share links/toughts on this pandemic...

One of the main points maybe to discuss now is "herd immunity/vaccination strategy"....Did vaccines make this pandemic in fact WORSE ?  While on an individual level offering better protection ? Or would this corona-virus also get worse without vaccines being widespread (but very slow so the virus can mutate around it...). 

[url]https://www.geertvandenbossche.org/[/url] or https://www.geertvandenbossche.org/ has been warning for virus reacting on  vaccines, development towards worse variants...better in evading (vaccine created) natural immunity...Still the "hard side" of his story would be vaccines only for limited groups...accepting the virus doing lots of damage in many others...But avoiding-at least for the time being-virus being challenged by vaccines on a larger scale....(Maybe in other words; "doomed if you do, doomed if you don't"- [url]https://guymcpherson.com/[/url] or https://guymcpherson.com/ on climate collapse...In my words getting killed from a bullet or a bomb..."what is "better"...both bad choices...) 

Numbers to start with [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ 

Global cases 632,417 trend +11%, reported deaths 8,201 trend +2%...

Europe cases 403,517 trend +16%, deaths 4,284 +2%

US cases 104,819 trend +8%, deaths 1,594 +7%

Germany reporting 73,966 new cases 321 deaths...trend cases +28%, deaths +20%...

Vaccines do still offer good protection against severe disease for most...with many western countries high level of vaccinations in several countries up to 50%+ of hospital cases are also vaccinated. But a lot of them would have had better protection if they could get a booster vaccine in time...Without vaccines "the picture would be far worse" is ignoring the fact that Delta (mostly) did interact with vaccine immunity...

Proberbly even the best experts may find it hard to say how the picture would have been now if we did not find vaccines...Fact is most of Western Europe is moving towards another-longer-lockdown... 

Looking at high increase of cases [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table South Africa (+135%) is showing up...Madagascar extreme numbers-due to very poor testing capacity...news on a new SA variant [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/928700-new-covid-variant-with-spike-protein-mutations-found-in-south-africa-b-1-1-529[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/928700-new-covid-variant-with-spike-protein-mutations-found-in-south-africa-b-1-1-529

New covid variant with spike protein mutations found in South Africa B.1.1.529


https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...r-of-mutations


Scientists have said a new Covid variant that carries an “extremely high number” of mutations may drive further waves of disease by evading the body’s defences.

Only 10 cases in three countries have been confirmed by genomic sequencing, but the variant has sparked serious concern among some researchers because a number of the mutations may help the virus evade immunity.



The B.1.1.529 variant has 32 mutations in the spike protein, the part of the virus that most vaccines use to prime the immune system against Covid. Mutations in the spike protein can affect the virus’s ability to infect cells and spread, but also make it harder for immune cells to attack the pathogen.
...
Dr Tom Peacock, a virologist at Imperial College London, posted details of the new variant on a genome-sharing website, noting that the “incredibly high amount of spike mutations suggest this could be of real concern”.

In a series of tweets, Peacock said it “very, very much should be monitored due to that horrific spike profile”, but added that it may turn out to be an “odd cluster” that is not very transmissible. “I hope that’s the case,” he wrote.

DJ See also [url]https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10238113/New-Botswana-variant-32-horrific-mutations-evolved-Covid-strain-EVER.html[/url] or https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10238113/New-Botswana-variant-32-horrific-mutations-evolved-Covid-strain-EVER.html ...Yesterday I did put a link to [url]https://twitter.com/peacockflu[/url] or https://twitter.com/peacockflu ....




Small update: this lineage has now been assigned as B.1.1.529:

link at [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/343[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/343 ...Some other countries to watch DRC (former Zaïre...) cases +82%, Peru cases +24%, Laos cases +14%, Vietnam +15%...

By now we may be seeing new (sub)variants getting even more agresive in several area's...In Western Europe, Eastern Europe no doubt also increase of new sub-variants...looking at statistics...[url]https://outbreak.info/[/url] or https://outbreak.info/ may give some indications...

As a non-expert I hope to get somewhat of a "helicopterview" . In my idea NPI-(travel)restrictions, with (booster) vaccines now still may limit damage...but it will take months for that to work not weeks...Dealing with this pandemic should be the only global priority...and still it is not...

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 25 2021 at 12:06am

part 2 

DJ-There is a lot of discussion on mandatory vaccinations...problem with that now is it may take 2-3 weeks to show effect/protection while we are sinking into a very major crisis in many places NOW ! 

Lockdowns, masks, social distance, work/study from home will show effects faster...There are risks in vaccines...let us please stay realistic on that !!! Vaccination (some call mRNA vaccines medication...I see that as a wordgame-but do understand the point) in this crisis can limit burden on healthcare...but due to "to little to late" healthcare is collapsing allready in many places...right now !!!

Limits on ICU capacity, staff, care after hospital, is allready showing. 

Some twitter [url]https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ[/url] or https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ NL Government/Outbreak Management Team "experts" in panic, running for TV shows...Sick people being sent home...at best a care person gets a chance to drop by-leaving sick people behind...hating their job...

[url]https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/cognitieve-coronadissonantie-andrea-walraven-thissen[/url] or https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/cognitieve-coronadissonantie-andrea-walraven-thissen describing NL (and with that many other countries); over-organized with nobody taking the final responsability...meeting after meeting...words...no action....

[url]https://twitter.com/Ammer_B[/url] or https://twitter.com/Ammer_BClear that many people in key discision making/advising positions have never done any emergency/outbreak response. Otherwise they would not wait till the hospitals are overflowing.

DJ "Leaders" that talk till they drop....bla-bla-bla....

[url]https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1[/url] or https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1 describing the level of corruption-this in the UK-many other countries seeing the same problem...Privatize the NHS....testing order-worth millions-going to sponsors of the conservative party/BoJo&Co....

In general the western idea has become...if there is a problem-put in a lot of money the problem will go away...Only this time it does not...

Deepti also mentioning refugee ping-pong-also killing people in the channel between UK and France/Belgium...Children NOT getting vaccinated...

[url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator mentioning UK statistics fraud...UK cases have been going up in all kind of statistics...still UK "government" claiming AstraZenica and "natural immunity" is doing a better job the Pfizer in the EU...




Last month, I felt #SARS2 global records will be broken but now I'm wondering if we are going to reach a million cases per day. North America joined Europe plus Asia, South America & Africa have countries experiencing resurgences. The wave started slowly but is gaining momentum.

DJ We most likely will not see a million cases per day...testing will collapse before that...Allready overrun in many countries...lots of people can not get tested...If German estimates are correct-any real number could be 2x to 3x the "official one" we may allready be over the 1 million cases per day...

Testing in India, Latin America, South Asia in general, Africa has been poor from the start...




Als antwoord op  en 
C.1.2 is very bad, B.1.638 is worse in terms of escape (if it still exists), B.1.640 is even worse (and it's definitely alive and spreading). But B.1.1.529 is off the charts bad. Yes, all we have is sequence, but that sequence is what a restart of the pandemic would look like.

Can it get worse ? Yes it can ! Phantasy-lovers like Dr.J.C. see "Japan-miracles"...while vaccines/restrictions in Japan create-for now-lower cases...I would love to believe in "self destructing variants" but please ;wishfull thinking and over-optimism kills !

Experts claiming corona-virus "did run out of mutations/variants" are unrealistic dreamers...

Few realize that a 30 y.o. has ~ 1/750 chance of death per year. Covid multiplies that! 
If you look at it dynamically, pandemics affect life expectancy in a flat way across the board. Everyone's life expectancy is shortened in ~ the same manner.

DJ A pandemic is ALLWAYS !!!-a dynamic proces !!! Virusses mutate...the more widespread the more variants...We have run out of any realistic perspective on how widespread what variant is where -in what (non-human ?) host-some time ago...

[url]https://twitter.com/UseBy2022[/url] or https://twitter.com/UseBy2022Pro infection, GBD collaborator MP meets @nadhimzahawi seeking to increase infections in schools, relying on a disinformation paper that was thrown out of court in the US as misleading #r4today #edutwitter  https://twitter.com/karamballes/status/1463601767590027266?t=5fjiwfOvaolnK54wweOwfQ&s=19

DJ One of the most sad parts in this total insane disaster is "politicians" PUSHING for natural immunity....Totally unbelievable insanity...

Just spotted: very small cluster of variant associated with Southern Africa with very long branch length and really awful Spike mutation profile including RBD - K417N, N440K, G446S, S477N, T478K, E484A, Q493K, G496S, Q498R, N501Y, Y505H https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/343

-





This one is worrying and I’ve not said that since delta. Please get vaccinated and boosted and mask up in public as the mutations in this virus likely result in high level escape from neutralising antibodies 

As a reminder we have this new variant as a result of failure to control infections and it likely arose in a single individual. Please play your part in limiting transmission

DJ Panic is a very normal reaction in this phase....Still the tools to limit this pandemic did NOT change ! Like in all other pandemics in history it is very simple ! S T O P   T H E   S P R E A D   ! ! ! ! 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/north-america-ab/north-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/928702-emergence-and-widespread-circulation-of-a-recombinant-sars-cov-2-lineage-in-north-america[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/north-america-ab/north-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/928702-emergence-and-widespread-circulation-of-a-recombinant-sars-cov-2-lineage-in-north-america

Emergence and widespread circulation of a recombinant SARS-CoV-2 lineage in North America


https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....19.21266601v1


We therefore support the designation of the B.1.628 major cluster as recombinant lineage XB in the Pango nomenclature. The widespread circulation of lineage XB across multiple countries over a longer timespan than the previously designated recombinant XA lineage raises important questions regarding the role and potential effects of recombination on the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
link from https://twitter.com/medrxivpreprint/...75519388270597

DJ Most likely we may now face worse subvariants of Delta AND new variants increasing in several regions !

Stay safe & sane !



We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 25 2021 at 10:50pm

DJ, 

The "Botswana/new-SA variant" (most likely soon named "Nu" is making the news....If present vaccines still have some function against that variant we soon will find out...Not stopping international air travel will soon result in cases showing up all over the globe...We keep repeating history over and over...

Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ may give indications on other variants...

Global cases "only" going up +7%, deaths -2% due to limited testing/reporting from US/Canada thanksgiving....US cases -8% may be used by some reporters/politicians as "news/succes" etc...Just like Japan booster vaccines/restrictions got linked with (pretty insane) claims of a self-destructive Delta-variant....Lots of garbage in official news...Governments themselves main producers of fake-news !

So where are cases going up and why ? Trends; 

South Africa cases going up 188%...last week 2,537 cases, this week 7,299 cases...increase of testing will ALSO result in higher number of cases...SA also sequencing it [url]https://twitter.com/peacockflu[/url] or https://twitter.com/peacockflu reporting on it (and other news...). 




Here's how mutations in #SARSCoV2 Nu variant (B.1.1.529) will affect polyclonal and monoclonal antibodies targeting RBD. These assessments based on deep-mutational scanning experiments; underlying data can be explored interactively 

-

Took a look at the spike mutations in B.1.1.529 this evening, and colour coded them (details below)...there is...not much green

DJ "Nu" may take over "Delta" proberbly meaning Delta+ R0 could be 8+, Nu even higher...International as good as travel stop...worldwide lockdown...would be wise...but we just let it happen again ! 

Madagascar, Somalia  high increases ? , Ghana cases +147%, DRC +82%...Namibia +26%, however Zambia cases -8%, Angola -6%, Zimbabwe -31%, Botswana -38%....Very likely the "new SA/Nu variant" spreading in some Africa regions...but testing is very problematic...And this "Nu-variant" no doubt also mutating full speed...(and officially not even a Variant of Concern...named Nu...even that may take weeks...).

Hong Kong allready has one case, Israel 1, possibly 3 in vaccinated persons from Malawi travel...So the "Nu-variant" did see free air-travel to Asia...no doubt soon detected in Europe, America's..."Global virus-fly-for free programms need revision"...

Other regions with high increases, statistics as early warning for possible new variants (in Delta or just "new") ;

France cases going up 75%, Spain 51%, Belgium 45%, Portugal +44%, Poland +32%, Germany +26% (Germany #1 in reported new cases top 10; 76,132 new cases 315 deaths +21%), NL +23% most likely most related to Delta sub variants...

In South America Peru cases +23%, Paraguay +17%, Bolivia +10%...I have my doubts on what (sub)variant may be spreading there...

South East Asia Vietnam cases still +14%, Bangladesh +11%, Laos +9%...would that still be Delta ? 

A look at [url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=VNM[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=VNM  hints at Delta AY.57 99% cases (rest Alpha) but latest update oct.25....

[url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=PER[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=PER for Peru several Delta subvariants...AY.102 (24%), AY.39.2 (21%,) AY.122 (11%), "others" (9%)  main detections...latest update oct.29..."picture" showing rapid changes" growth of AY.102 and AY.39.2...but "old info"...

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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DJ, A non-expert look at twitter , etc (=not peer-reviewed science)....

Can we get this growing crisis under control ? YES !!! Stop free (air)travel for virusses, increase (ad random) testing also in vaccinated....international lockdown....It did take the new SA/"Nu" variant just TWO WEEKS to become the dominant sequence in South Africa...indicating high level of infectiousness/R0....Cases in Hong Kong, Israel....what are we waiting for ? 

[url]https://twitter.com/UseBy2022[/url] or https://twitter.com/UseBy2022 ; We have launched a tracker for confirmed and probable cases of B.1.1.529, the new coronavirus variant. It will be updated several times a day https://newsnodes.com/nu_tracker

DJ link [url]https://newsnodes.com/nu_tracker[/url] or https://newsnodes.com/nu_tracker  latest info 84 confirmed cases in 4 countries, 992 proberbly...2 countries (SA and Israel...Hong Kong, Botswana)...many countries will have labs doing extra time...Since "Nu" like Alfa has 69/70 deletad simple PCR testing will give easy indications on the spread...(if finding them is the goal...).

CODE RED ON B 1.1.529: MONITOR THIS https://youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ Fantastic video of 

 and team of scientists in SA and interaction with Government Brilliant work on B1.1.529 

 

 

DJ video starts at min. 3...

The new variant B.1.1.529 appears to replace Delta, as South Africa enters the 4th wave. The variant is concerning because it seems to be highly transmissable and can evade immunity, both.Rood gezicht The new variant will be reviewed, classified and named by the World Health Organization.

DJ It may be to early to see much about how good vaccines offer protection...Alfa (also del 69/70) started in october 2020...South Africa on its way to week longs of hollidays...parties etc...

[url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator also a lot about the SA variant; 

As 

 would say, the name of the game is (and has been) elimination: eliminate the virus or be eliminated (figuratively & literally) by it. It is irrelevant how you feel about this, nature sets the rules of the game and it is a zero sum one esp against the Nu(ke) variant

Time to take serious action ! And I am not seeing that yet...

I update a new Nu-line in latest news...twitter is almost only about the "Nu" variant....so end of part 2...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 26 2021 at 11:50pm

DJ, 

Most of the news these days will be on the "new pandemic" [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant  and for good reasons ! 

Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ has 578,229 cases (+5%), 6,852 reported deaths (-3%). With US very limited reporting/testing we may see record high numbers next week...

Europe cases +15%, deaths -0,6%...Africa cases +30%, deaths +6%...

Germany again reporting over 70,000 cases per day...trend +26%, 374 deaths +31%...Belgium so far the only country reporting Omicron case(s)...trend +39%, deaths +14%...

When you look at both the limited case/travel info and statistics Omicron must be widespread around the globe...It overtook Delta in South Africa in two weeks...it may be the global dominant VOC before christmas...

Maybe as a reminder-this is the end of november...winter still has to start ! (I can see melting snow from my window...). We do know how [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Alpha_variant[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Alpha_variant did go...since history keeps repeating-vaccines may have made matters worse-knowing recent history may help...

-[url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/11/26/unvaccinated-arent-blame-covid-lockdown-says-health-minister[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/11/26/unvaccinated-arent-blame-covid-lockdown-says-health-minister DJ Bad, failing politics...terrible communications, experts (Marianne Koopmans to name one) doing a very bad job over and over again...

Vaccines offer good protection against severe disease...but without very good restrictions they worsen the pandemic via vaccine-evasive variants..It is a dynamic proces...virusses mutate all the time...So increasing vaccines without stopping the spread will result in variants that evade vaccins....

Proberbly at least three ways;

-immuno compromised people that have active virus in (parts of) their body for months mutating, picking up variants..Omicron in part is a collection of Alfa/Alpha, Beta, Delta mutations...

-high number of infections in a short time. People living close together (Brazil, India, South Africa, Nigeria etc.) do see high level of spread bringing high level of mutations resulting in new variants (most of those variants do not last that long...but the few that do are "tested" for "survival" so by definition "bad"). 

-US deer, NL/DK minks, cat/dog-like (zoo)animals did see CoVid infections and mutations ([url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cluster_5[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cluster_5 was just one minor outbreak). It is very likely CoViD may be jumping over and over from human to non-human hosts v.v. From (SE Asia)  bats to the cat on your lap...

So we did allready have a lot of mutations before vaccines showed up...Allowing virus-spread during incomplete very slow global vaccination was inviting variants for a reaction....

And of course all the time we had free travel for virusses/variants...limiting travel only AFTER it was allready to late...over and over again...(Marianne Koopmans...one of the best virologists in the world was very wrong by claiming (february 2020 ?) "NL did not have direct flights from Wuhan so we would not get the virus in NL"...it is NOT the job of a virologist (but an epidemiologist) to tell where the virus is going...Virologists job is to say what the virus/mutations can do...(and no doubt she is very good in doing that-so stick to that job !!! With all respect !!! YES ! Experts did see years of study, experience...but "experts" often are "only" experts in their science ! )

I remember how Henry L Niman did get it wrong with his expectations on flu-outbreaks...he may have been top in virusses...but "not that good" in seeing what the virus would do in several regions...

-Another aspect that is growing in importance by the hour is how humans react. Here in NL most people were very willing to follow the rules in the early stages...but by now I do not have any idea what kind of rules the NL-CDC did think of this time...I go my own way, make my own plans...

Support for NL government strategy is decreasing...People are taking risks serious, however "rules did become a sad joke"...

In NL news "unvaccinated will get natural immunity protection"-non sense ! For the rest the "news" is about how further restrictions will effect shops, restaurants...protests....Proberbly good info on virusses, pandemics may be above the intelect of may "journalists"...However still a lot are trying to do a good job ! 

But "bad news" is "bad advertising"...so a lot of info going via "alternative media"....

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Part 2..

Some other aspects of the present global crisis;

-If the Omicron variant is NOT yet widespread in Europe/US (etc) we may be in a much worse situation then when it is allready widespread. European cases were quite low mid october...Germany less then 10,000 daily cases most of the time...Germany now is facing up to 70,000+ cases per day...Lots of other countries in the same scenario...If Delta-variants were the reason for this "explosion" of cases...and Omicron would be able to make matters even worse "we may need to make other plans"...

If Omicron would be airborne over tens of meters, ignoring vaccines, maybe to small to be stopped enough by a lot of masks the picture would get "very dark"...however that is not the picture I get from Southern Africa...it is bad but not that bad...

-Another point may be in some larger cities over 50% of households are single-households...The "City is the livingroom"-idea does not mix with this pandemic. 

If dealing with this pandemic is a years-long strategy we may have to rethink social contacts...Human relations matter a lot in this pandemic ! People looking for a safe bubble others trying to escape from an unsafe bubble...

Governments do have an active role in this ! Home-violence allready is a police matter. Public (mental) health for all age groups should also deal with this social aspect-trying to improve it to get pandemic-proof. 

-[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/11/the-new-virus-variant-has-lots-of-mutations-that-does-not-yet-mean-its-very-bad.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/11/the-new-virus-variant-has-lots-of-mutations-that-does-not-yet-mean-its-very-bad.html ;

Giving up Non-Pharma interventions was a very bad idea....How bad Omicron turns out to be we will have to find out...we do not yet have that many cases and with that answers...

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oxlYyZ08cEg[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oxlYyZ08cEg dr. John Campbell on Omicron...

DJ-Dr.J.C. has been mixing good info with bad perspectives/interpretations...He is good in communicating...but tends to be "unrealistic overoptimistic" often...If you do not see the risks as they are you may not be making the right preparations...

From close to "vaccinating us out of this pandemic" to "this pandemic is now endemic" maybe Dr.J.C. did more damage then "real fake news"....

We will learn in the coming days, weeks more on this VOC. Most of the info I expect to get from some twitter-accounts...NOT "news" or dr.j.c. 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 27 2021 at 10:42pm

DJ, 

I do not like high numbers of cases increasing in Laos/Vietnam...bats in that area do carry lots of coronavirusses that may jump to other hosts...Also in South America some countries keep reporting increase of cases for weeks...Peru did see an earlier variant...Cases going up in Brazil as well (and some other countries also.) What variants are spreading there ? 

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ may be getting more and more pointless...NL is at max-testcapacity for several days...a lot of other countries may have reached maximum test capacity as well. People at testing stations getting ill themselves is allready decreasing test capacity in NL...

An increase in NL cases mean more people test positive...but around 100,000/120,000 tests per day is maximum capacity for now.  Over 20% of the tests are positive in NL for days...(WHO rule <5%, ECDC rule <3% to claim you control an outbreak...)

Global cases "only going up 2%"...because the US (cases -31%, deaths -33%) is in an extended "thanksgiving weekend" with low (only hospital cases ?) reporting and testing...So "yes global deaths -4%"...is a reporting issue...coming week numbers will get "corrected"...

Since vaccinated were allowed to spread virus/variants around the globe Omicron most likely will be dominant worldwide before Christmas...It has to be much more infectious if it can "wipe away" Delta in South Africa only in 2 weeks...

Claims that Omicron is "milder" is panic control...We still have to find out how Omicron behaves in more vaccinated countries. Is (Western) Europe allready in a high % of Omicron ? Sequencing to little to late ? 

[url]https://twitter.com/florian_krammer[/url] or https://twitter.com/florian_krammer ;  However, the fact that European countries only detected it in travelers after South Africa and others warned about it, probably means that many cases so far went undetected. It also tells us a lot about genomic surveillance in some high income countries.

DJ Cases exploding to testing capacity levels in many countries may indicate Omicron is allready a major factor. (Closing airtravel with Southern Africa most for PR reasons...governments acting as if they care, do still have some sort of control...they completely messed it all up ! Allowing early 2020 Wuhan airtravel spread around the globe was stupid...Repeating that total incompetence TWICE in 2021..april-Delta flying for free from India, now Omicron flying in vaccinated...for that matter we have a different Omicron version in the rest of the world..its airtravel hosts were vaccinated ! is criminal ignorance...). 

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