Click to Translate to English Click to Translate to French  Click to Translate to Spanish  Click to Translate to German  Click to Translate to Italian  Click to Translate to Japanese  Click to Translate to Chinese Simplified  Click to Translate to Korean  Click to Translate to Arabic  Click to Translate to Russian  Click to Translate to Portuguese  Click to Translate to Myanmar (Burmese)

PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
123456
Forum Home Forum Home > Main Forums > General Discussion
  New Posts New Posts RSS Feed - scenario's
  FAQ FAQ  Forum Search   Events   Register Register  Login Login

Now tracking the new emerging South Africa Omicron Variant

scenario's

 Post Reply Post Reply Page  <1 394041
Author
Message
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 68892
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 19 2022 at 10:35pm

DJ,

The story is getting complicated-enough CoViD-news...but Hong Kong did see a BA.2.2, South Korea BA.2.3, US now could see major BA.2.12/BA.2.12.1 peaks...so lots of variants each bringing its own regional "wave"...however not excluding other variants...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/south-korea-xe-and-xm-recombinants-may-be-domestic-occurrence/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/south-korea-xe-and-xm-recombinants-may-be-domestic-occurrence/ limited numbers...

⚠️ Ro value is climbing in Delhi, UP & Haryana! Which lineage is circulating in these regions? βž‘️ Top #SARSCoV2 Lineages currently in circulation in #Delhi*: BA.2.10, BA.2.12 & BA.1.1 *data till April 16th & only limited sequences available   https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/raj.rajnarayanan/viz/VariantDashboard_INDIA/VariantDashboard

DJ India did report extreme low number of cases...most likely because they did not want to find them...

#COVID19 #VariantDashboard - #UnitedStates  TOP lineages (15-DAY TRENDS): 27.06% BA.2, 15.80% BA.2.9, 13.04% BA.2.12.1, <---Spike #L452Q 12.27% BA.2.12, 8.97% BA.2.3, 8.13% BA.1.1, and 8.06% BA.2.10 Tracker (by State): http://tinyurl.com/mryj4uu7

In the US 









Closely observing BA.2.12.1 (Spike S704L+ L452Q) hotspots for additional mutation pick-ups! Already observing one spike A879V mutation starting to form a cluster in USA (mainly NY) This mutation doesn't seem to increase its growth advantage over time but the next one might!

not yet a clear dominant subvariant...










Worried—Hospitalizations for #COVID19 are rising exponentially again in Florida and New York. Meanwhile, NJ COVID hospitals admissions is second largest by number, while VT largest by percentage. Florida πŸ₯ are sharply rising—faster than last Omicron wave.

Did China report anothe 7 CoViD deaths today ? 

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/long-covid/preprint-residual-sars-cov-2-found-in-human-tissue-after-426-days/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/long-covid/preprint-residual-sars-cov-2-found-in-human-tissue-after-426-days/

“We believe this study is the first to detect viral RNA and/or antigen in the tissues of patients with Long Covid, up to 426 days after the onset of COVID-19 symptoms.”

While viral RNA and antigen from gastrointestinal and stool samples of convalescent patients has been extensively reported, we believe this is the first study to detect viable virus. Furthermore, our positive finding in the breast tissue also corroborated with recent reports that immunocompromised patients had also experienced Long Covid symptoms and persistent viral replication. Overall, our findings, along with emerging LC studies, question the possibility of the gastrointestinal tract functioning as a reservoir.

Preprint: Persistence of residual SARS-CoV-2 viral antigen and RNA in tissues of patients with long COVID-19

DJ-not only can such virus cause damage in the host, it may also become spreading from that host...

HUGE—In South Korea πŸ‡°πŸ‡·, major study found mandatory wearing of masks reduced #COVID19 rates by 93.5% and practicing both social distancing with masks on public transport during peak hours reduced infection rates by 98.1%. πŸ‘€ #MaskUp #COVIDisAirborne https://science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abg3691?utm_campaign=SciMag&utm_source=Social&utm_medium=Twitter

So NOT wearong masks any longer may bring more infections...(also more mutations=variants...). 

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 68892
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 19 2022 at 11:35pm

part 2....number of (sub)variants;

Variants accelerating, as expected, score card: From Omicron subvariants: BA.1, BA.1.1, and BA.2 Now: XD and XF hybrids of Delta and BA.1 XE  hybrid of Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 BA.4, BA.5 = BA.2 + important mutations BA.2.12.1 and BA2.12.2 and...

DJ with recombination-names now soon expected to become XAA...

How many variants are possible? The number of different mutation combinations is ~4^10,000 4^10 is 1 million 4^20 is 1,000,000,000,000 4^40 is 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 4^100 has 60 zeros 4^200 has 120 zeros 4^1,000 has 600 zeros

-

2) Zooming in on just BA.2.12.1 (new designation please, BA.6??) we see case estimates doubling each week (CDC data) up to current.  This has a more significant chance to break through the shift in seasons to create a real wave than BA.2 could muster.


Image

4

18

71


and also discussions on BA.4, BA.5 now BA.2.12.1 renamed BA.6 maybe...following viral development is almost impossible...

Testing dropped "because the virus is mild" untill it is not...so without proper testing sequencing may be missing a lot...








ECDC update announcement on hepatitis of unknown origin in children, with additional cases in Denmark, Ireland, the Netherlands, and Spain to add to the UK ones earlier on.

link [url]https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/news-events/update-hepatitis-unknown-origin-children[/url] or https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/news-events/update-hepatitis-unknown-origin-children 

DJ-I expect to see more "strange diseases". In part due to damage some subvariants may do to organs (in the hepatitus case liver in children often under 10 y/o). But also because of CoViD in non-human hosts getting mixed up with all kinds of other diseases/mutations making people/hosts more vulnerable for diseases that did less damage earlier. Co-infection of CoVid and Flu-"FluRona" brings more severe disease...

Is the increase of HPAI "bird flu" related to more testing or some sort of CoViD in birds making them more vulnerable ? 








Workers are being told to reenter the office, but only 19% of bosses are going back in person πŸ˜‰ Infection for thee and remote work for me

DJ, Why are we even unwilling to go for simple basic defenses; masks in public transport/spaces, work/study more from home....Are we simply unwilling to learn ?

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/ global cases-due to less testing/reporting -30%...however some trends;

Cases;

Paraguay +154%, Taiwan +138%, China +127%, Finland +124%, Namibia +80%, Zambia +43%, Peru +36%...India now at +35% (from very low numbers...), Mozambique +12%, South Africa +11%, Bangladesh +6%....USA +0,3% (may be over-optimistic...). 

Deaths;

Zambia reporting 6 deaths +600%, Finland +129%, Paraguay +67%, South Africa +61%

[url]https://yle.fi/uutiset/18-89760[/url] or https://yle.fi/uutiset/18-89760 Some (limited) Finland news...[url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=FIN[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=FIN BA.2.9 increasing ??? (but latest info on Omicron from march 16 ???) 

End of part 2...this is a 4D-developing puzzle...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 68892
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 21 2022 at 2:53am

DJ, 

Some discussion on [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/treatment/paxlovid/paxlovid-covid-19-infections-rebounding-a-few-days-after-treatment/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/treatment/paxlovid/paxlovid-covid-19-infections-rebounding-a-few-days-after-treatment/

There are some anecdotal reports on social media today about Covid-19 infections rebounding a few days after taking Paxlovid. The rebound effects could be caused by reinfection, the biphasic effect of the virus, Paxlovid not clearing the infection completely, or by another unknown mechanism.  If you are taking Paxlovid, then you should probably read up on this.

and [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/urgent-studies-needed-on-paxlovid-does-it-only-help-alleviate-symptoms-and-suppress-viral-load-for-a-while-but-does-not-help-in-total-viral-clearance[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/urgent-studies-needed-on-paxlovid-does-it-only-help-alleviate-symptoms-and-suppress-viral-load-for-a-while-but-does-not-help-in-total-viral-clearance 

DJ-I do not know much of medicine...but if a anti-viral does a far from perfect job I imagine a virus can adapt to it...resulting in the anti-viral becoming less usefull over time. 

BNO/Medriva Newsroom

@medriva
 · 
U.S. COVID update: Weekly hospital figures rising for the first time since January - New cases: 78,025 - Average: 42,636 (+352) - States reporting: 41/50 - In hospital: 13,943 (+439) - In ICU: 1,794 (+3) - New deaths: 656 - Average: 403 (-29) More data: https://newsnodes.com/us

related to ; 

Q mutation ---> Spike Mutation L452Q is most likely responsible for the recent surge in cases/hospitalization (especially in NE USA)

DJ [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ became far less usefull because of a sharp drop in testing and reporting...with less testing also sequencing may be a problem even more...still a look at trends; global cases yesterday -30% now at -29%...but very "bad data"...(a delay in reporting can become a major factor). 

USA cases +10%, deaths still -35%...however excess deaths-in the long run-may give much more realistic info. long CoViD is a major global problem...

Some other countries with high increase of cases; 

Finland +300% ! Last week 7,216, last 7 days up to 28,891 cases !!! Deaths +578% !!!!! Last week 27, last 7 days 183 !!! So what is happening in Finland then ? 

[url]https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-12411876[/url] or https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-12411876 ;

RAISA LEHTIVUORI,PAULA TIESSALO
21.4. 08:28 • Updated Apr 21 10:13



The main points of the corona information in summary:

  • The number of coronary infections in Finland has decreased for the third week in a row, in all age groups and in all regions.
  • The burden of hospitalization is slowly declining, due to elderly patients and declining vaccination coverage.
  • The amount of coronavirus in wastewater has not increased.
  • Those planning a summer trip should be careful and find out the limitations of both the destination country and possible transit countries.

DJ ????????????????? [url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=FIN[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=FIN BA.2.9 20% but info over 1 month old ? [url]https://yle.fi/news/3-11863045[/url] or https://yle.fi/news/3-11863045 as basic source for Finland...

Paraguay +154%, deaths +67% in South America Peru then cases +26%, deaths +4%...

Taiwan +143%, deaths +100% (from 1 to 2...), China cases +138% with 17 deaths in last 7 days

In Africa; 

Namibia cases +140%, Egypt +115%, South Africa +30%, deaths +27%, Mozambique cases +28%  in general Africa cases now +18%, deaths still -6%

India cases +55%...

DJ-It is getting much harder to get a realistic picture; not only "very limited-if at all-testing/reporting" but also-as far as that is done-limited sequencing now finding lots of different subvariants going up in several parts of the globe...A very unclear view..

In 1959, Eugene Ionesco wrote the absurdist play  Rhinoceros in which one by one, an entire town of people suddenly transform into rhinos. At first, people are horrified but as the contagion spreads, (almost) everyone comes to accept that turning into a rhinoceros is fine. 1/

DJ crazy as a new normal...

Bob Wachter

@Bob_Wachter
 · 
…LC from an Omicron infection in a fully vaxxed person is ~5%. b. Increasing the risk of bad non-Covid outcomes over time. Recent studies have shown β¬†risk of heart attacks & strokes, of diabetes, of brain shrinkage, and of blood clots. It’s hard to translate that to my… (9/25)

DJ...how to survive in a world that has gone crazy ??? Should you try to get invisible-unless very well protected ? Hope things will get "better" one day ? 

So, each time my household of 4 people gets infected, we each have a ~5% chance of getting symptomatic Long Covid. EVERY. TIME. I know friends who are on their third or fourth round of Covid. If people keep getting infected at this rate, Long Covid will become the norm. 13/

And corona is "in between African Swine Fever" and "Avian Flu" as a global health problem...very likely interlinked...with climate collapse worsening global health perspectives even more...

So what do "leaders do" when it gets complicated ? Start a war ! 

DJ We NEED URGENT !!!! GLOBAL !!!! cooperation to get out of high speed worsening problems or we will not survive this...

End of part 1-maybe later on a part 2...I think it is becoming increasingly impossible to follow this pandemic...two many subvariants, to little good info...to much "live with it" ...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 68892
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 22 2022 at 12:17am

DJ, 

I am very sceptical with these kinds of studies [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-new-u-s-study-shows-that-natural-immunity-presents-a-longer-window-of-protection-against-covid-19-infection-compared-to-mrna-jabs[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-new-u-s-study-shows-that-natural-immunity-presents-a-longer-window-of-protection-against-covid-19-infection-compared-to-mrna-jabs ????????????

The article takes time to explain differences with mRNA vaccines may not be that major [url]https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34619098/[/url] or https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34619098/ ;

Interpretation: Our results provide support for high effectiveness of BNT162b2 against hospital admissions up until around 6 months after being fully vaccinated, even in the face of widespread dissemination of the delta variant. Reduction in vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infections over time is probably primarily due to waning immunity with time rather than the delta variant escaping vaccine protection.

Funding: Pfizer.

DJ, Are there risks in getting a vaccine ?  As a very much NON-expert my impression is vaccines are not without risks...but catching CoViD most likely may be even worse...

Also with fast mutating new subvariants in a group of hosts with more immunity (either via infection or vaccination) the virus will get better in evading immunity...I do not know if any of the SARS-1 infected group (or MERS ?) still has enough protection against CoViD-19/SARS-2 ? 

Still [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/reinfection/spain-fully-boosted-healthcare-worker-reinfected-with-sars-cov-2-after-just-20-days/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/reinfection/spain-fully-boosted-healthcare-worker-reinfected-with-sars-cov-2-after-just-20-days/

A fully boosted 31-year-old Spanish woman has contracted two different SARS-CoV-2 variants within three weeks. The 20-day gap between infections is the shortest known. The first infection was with the Delta variant, the second infection was with Omicron.

The woman, a healthcare worker, first tested positive on December 20th 2021, in a PCR test during staff screening at her place of work. She was fully vaccinated and had received a booster shot 12 days earlier.

The patient, who didn’t develop any symptoms with the Delta variant, self-isolated for ten days before returning to work.

On January 10, 2022, just 20 days after first testing positive, she developed a cough, fever and felt generally unwell and did another PCR test. This was also positive.

Whole genome sequencing showed that patient had been infected by two different strains of SARS-CoV-2. Their first infection, in December, was with the Delta variant. The second, in January, was with the Omicron variant.

European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases

DJ Level of protection is based on statistics...maybe some people may catch some subvariant more easy then others ? It is "complex"...an unvaccinated person may have less risks-if limiting social contacts, mask etc,,,,,then a fully vaccinated/booster HCW-er on a CoViD-ward...Vaccination also would provide better protection against long CoViD...a fast growing problem...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/research-sars-cov-2-spike-gene-passaged-in-black-rats/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/research-sars-cov-2-spike-gene-passaged-in-black-rats/

Analyses suggest that the ancestral coronavirus adapted to bats was shortly passaged in treeshrews, while the donor of the spike gene was shortly passaged in rats before the recombination event.

Both treeshrews and black rats/mice live in Central China. All of these species may well be sold in Chinese wet markets and/or be used for passaging viruses in virological laboratories. Our results therefore do not answer the question whether the new virus is the product of a natural recombination of two viruses or the outcome of deliberate insertion of the gene for the spike protein into the genome of other coronavirus species.

Research article: SARS-CoV-2 spike gene evolved in humans and then shortly in rats while the rest of its genome in horseshoe bats and then in treeshrews

DJ...corona-virusses are widespread in lots of animals worldwide...If you are looking at "where did it start" you may first have to make up "how/when" did it start ? If recombination of corona-virusses was the basis for this pandemic-jumping from non-human to human hosts maybe we have to rethink the risks...they may be much larger then we want to believe...

In many ways what we see as "normal" is based on the last decades being very unusual in many ways...

-A look at [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ has Finland on #6 for most cases...in part maybe they still keep testing there ? Germany, France both report over 100,000 cases...Global cases -28%, deaths -23% however Africa cases +23%, deaths +32% ! Egypt cases now at +156%...

China cases +100%, India cases +80%, South Africa cases +56%, US cases +13%53 countries reporting an increase of cases....North America cases now only -4%...

Vincent Rajkumar

@VincentRK
 · 
I've written about how South Korea controlled the pandemic. But nothing captures the dramatic difference like cumulative deaths over 2 years. It's a painful watch.
Show this thread

has a link to US CoViD deaths number exploding [url]https://twitter.com/VincentRK/status/1517287705511706624[/url] or https://twitter.com/VincentRK/status/1517287705511706624 

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 68892
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 22 2022 at 2:11am

DJ, 

China yesterday reported 8 deaths-today 11 

Shanghai reports 11 new coronavirus deaths, the biggest one-day increase on record

with NPI/lockdown restrictions ever harder to maintain...DJ, Argentina did have a very long lockdown that however turned out not to be very effective...In China cases keep going up...so you may need to rethink the strategy. Trying to find more on what variant is spreading but could not find much info...BA.2.2/BA.2.3 from Hong Kong/South Korea major factor...

For the US; 









#COVID19 #VariantDashboard - #UnitedStates  TOP lineages (15-DAY TRENDS): 27.30% BA.2, 16.56% BA.2.9, 15.26% BA.2.12.1, <-Spike #L452Q 13.09% BA.2.12, 9.98% BA.2.3, 6.78% BA.1.1, and 5.90% BA.2.10 Tracker (by State): http://tinyurl.com/mryj4uu7  #OmicronUpdates 04/21/22

also [url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=USA[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=USA BA.2.12, BA..212.1 and BA.2.9 seem to be increasing...(5%,2%,7%).

a look at NL [url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=NLD&dark=true[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=NLD&dark=true has BA.2.9 at 34%, BA.2.12 at 7%...NL cases -57%...

comparing that with Finland wich has cases +76% (with other nordic countries cases also going down more then 20%...) [url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=FIN&dark=true[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=FIN&dark=true info maybe a little older but BA.1.1 at 44%, BA.2.9 at 20%, BA.2.12 at 4%...why are the numbers that different ? It is not only-maybe-more testing...

This is an X-ray of a person in their early 30s who is perfectly healthy. They have mild #omicron and severe bacterial pneumonia. (Yellow square). My ICU is full of these cases. Omicron suppresses immunity making people susceptible to severe disease. This makes everyone comorbid.


Image

DJ, would this be a factor in the high number of avian flu cases ? Birds catching a "mild" corona-virus but getting much more vulnarable for H5-bird flu types ? Did it work this way in pigs-African Swine Fever maybe keeping a "mild corona virus" spreading under the radar ? 

The above x-ray again underlines the importance of NOT getting the virus ! Also "people may not die from CoViD" but a bacterial infection-still that bacterial infection may have been very mild without the CoViD on top of it...

Eric Feigl-Ding

@DrEricDing
 · 
πŸ€REBOUND of #COVID19 ON DAYS 10-14—I’ve been closely monitoring a new trend of a “rebound” of symptoms after Paxlovid’s 5 day course is finished—neg then positive again. Example—3 in one family. Pfizer hinted on FDA app too—need to be vigilant to retest. https://bostonglobe.com/2022/04/21/metro/puzzling-phenomenon-patients-report-rebound-covid-19-symptoms-after-taking-antiviral-paxlovid/

DJ An anti-viral needs to STOP the virus-not to "slow it down" ! Otherwise the virus will mutate around the anti-viral...








🎊BIG new update to http://CoVariants.org!🎊 Using cases from , we're now generating plots showing cases by variant! πŸ“ŠπŸ€― This has been much-requested & in-the-works since Nov 2021. Let's take a look!
Click the new 'Cases' link at the top of any http://CoVariants.org page, or go straight to http://covariants.org/cases! Note that these are *estimates* of the proportion of cases by variant. Only a small % of cases are sequenced - we're extrapolating, so interpret with care!!

This [url]https://covariants.org/[/url] or https://covariants.org/ may give more info-if enough info is available...will be-also-far from perfect since sequencing takes time ...

[url]https://covariants.org/per-country[/url] or https://covariants.org/per-country "21K" and "21L" Omicron [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Nomenclature[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Nomenclature 

[url]https://covariants.org/variants/21K.Omicron[/url] or https://covariants.org/variants/21K.Omicron =BA.1 and [url]https://covariants.org/variants/21L.Omicron[/url] or https://covariants.org/variants/21L.Omicron =BA.2...

DJ-Maybe some remarks on the [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ looking at total cases per million...Israel has 43,4% of its population testing positive at least once...also a high % in adults being vaccinated (however with a young population the total number of vaccines is not that high...). 

Denmark even over 50% of its population did test positive...NL 46,6%. US had 24,7%, Sweden 24,5%, Finland 18% of its population tested positive...could that be a factor in why Finland now has cases +76% (deaths -34%) ???

End of part 2

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 68892
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 22 2022 at 10:33pm

DJ,

Allthough the numbers are far from complete let me start with [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ;

For today-april 23- China reporting close to 3,000 new cases, 12 deaths. Yesterday did see just over 680,000 new cases being reported...a more realistic number may be between 5x to maybe even 10x that number...India only reporting 2,527 new cases...

Trends may-for that matter-be more of use; global cases now -23% (a few days back -30%) deaths -16%...59 countries now reporting an increase of cases. (With the "highest increase" in countries that reported 0 cases last week-maybe because they did not have tests...). 

Taiwan (EA1) cases +172%, India (SA1) +108%, South Africa  SAF1)+78%, Tunesia +77%, Finland (NE1)+76%,Namibia (SAF2) +74%, China (EA2) +61%, Spain +38%, Bangla Desh (SA2) +23%, Peru +21%, USA (NA1) +15%, Eswatini (SAF3) +13%, Saudi Arabia +9%, Canada (NA2) +8%, Sri Lanka  (SA3)+3%, Norway (NE2) +0,5%.

To name a few clusters;

East Asia (EA), China, Taiwan

South Asia (SA) India, Bangla Desh, Sri Lanka

Northern Europe (NE) Finland, Norway

North America (NA) USA, Canada

Each cluster may have their own main subvariant...even more complex; Bangla Desh and India could even see different main subvariants in different regions...(same goes for USA/Canada, Southern Africa region etc.). 

Saudi Arabia/Arab countries worth keeping an eye on also because of [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MERS[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MERS a camel related corona-virus...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/deaths/uk-the-deadly-legacy-of-britains-covid-19-freedom-day-2646-deaths-in-one-week/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/deaths/uk-the-deadly-legacy-of-britains-covid-19-freedom-day-2646-deaths-in-one-week/

Nearly one year ago, on July 19th 2021, the UK announced its “Freedom Day” from Covid-19.  The deadly cost of that fateful decision is now becoming apparent…

On the 21st April 2021, the UK death rate was just 20 victims. One year later, on the 21st April 2022, the figure has risen to 647 deaths – 32 times greater than the same day in 2021.

In the past 8 days alone, from the 13th April 2022 to 21st April 2022, there have been 2,646 deaths, despite a three-day holiday during that period when no Covid figures were recorded.

The UK death rate has now been rising for more than one year, and is far above the levels that triggered the first national lockdown in March 2020 and the second national lockdown in November 2020.

DJ, UK reported 320 deaths april 22, 646 deaths april 21-UK trends for deaths +7%; last 7 days 1,860 UK deaths, the week before it was 1,733...still excluding a lot of excess deaths..dying later then 28 days after a first positive test...[url]https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map[/url] or https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map dark red is 40,000 (expected) cases per million...=4% of the population getting infected...[url]https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time[/url] or https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time UK cases going down for now...

There are 43 countries reporting an increase of deaths...but again-in %-the highest score in countries that did not report deaths last week...still China did report 36 deaths in the last 7 days (with 0 the week before-somehow worldometers puts that as +3% ???? +360% would make more sense !)

South Africa deaths +148%, last 7 days 144, the week before 58. Canada +50%, last 7 days 465, the week before 311..

Still the US reported most deaths (in absolute numbers) 2,234 last 7 days, the week before 2,875 -22%...

Peru still on top of the list of DpM-deaths per million; 6,293 (=0,63% of the Peru population died from CoViD). Brazil 3,078 dpm, USA 3,043, Chile 2,953, Italy 2,691, UK 2,525

[url]https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2022/04/articles/animals/cats/covid-control-measures-in-animal-shelters/[/url] or https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2022/04/articles/animals/cats/covid-control-measures-in-animal-shelters/ ; As the world tries to (prematurely) transition back to some semblance of normalcy (or at least what used to be “normal”), it’s a challenge to figure out what changes to make, and when. There will never be agreement between everybody. Some want full reversion to “normal” now, some want third-wave-level restrictions until further notice… like most things, there’s presumably a sweet spot in the middle.

-

Preventing infection of people FROM animals

The risk of dog/cat-to-human transmission is low but not zero. This risk has not been well documented, even though it presumably it occurs, but we need to put it into context. It’s more of a concern when there’s less risk of human-to-human transmission. When there’s rampant community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 between people, the potential impact of animal-to-human transmission is limited. An animal shelter worker is much more likely to get infected outside of the shelter, even if there are infected animals in the shelter.

-

What do we do to balance being proactive and practical, reducing disease risk while maintaining as much normalcy as possible in shelter operations?

Good question.  To be honest, we’re making it up as we go (because we have to), and there’s no one-size-fits-all solution.

However, there are some basic practices and concepts that certainly apply and need to be considered carefully in any situation:

  • Maximize vaccination of staff (and that means 3 doses, not 2).
  • Maintain basic non-pharmaceutical interventions such as masks.
  • Monitor and improve ventilation.
  • Continue to have a strict “if you’re sick, stay home” policy.

Managing visitors/adopters is also important, including measures such as:

  • Minimize the number of visitors in the shelter.  Do as much remotely as possible. Discussions about animals and adoption protocols can be done online or by phone.
  • Minimize the number of people in the shelter in general or in any specific area of the shelter at one time.  Keep access to the shelter by appointment only, so that there are no crowded periods. Keep people spaced out
  • Maximize the use of outdoor spaces for interviews and animal visits.
  • Require visitors to wear masks.

Some adopters won’t like it, but it’s a case of “your facility, your rules.” If someone won’t use these very basic precautions (during a pandemic that’s still in full swing), it may be a red flag about how well they will follow any other requirements associated with adoption as well.

DJ, Maybe these "shelter-rules" should remain basic untill there is a realistic perspective (and not a "political bla-bla, saving the economy=profits" perspective) of an end to this pandemic. 

You do not need to be a medical expert to understand basic statistics ! If a virus is also widespread in non-human hosts "the pandemic is far from over" !

Again, this pandemic is the outcome of politics, politicians, not doing their job !!!! If democracy is "every $,€ counts" instead of every voter you have democrazy !

Living with the virus is even more crazy then living with climate "change"...politicians starting a global war instead of solving basic problems belong in a madhouse !

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 68892
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 22 2022 at 11:14pm

DJ-part 2

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/reinfection/preprint-rates-of-covid-19-among-unvaccinated-adults-with-prior-infection/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/reinfection/preprint-rates-of-covid-19-among-unvaccinated-adults-with-prior-infection/ ;Prior COVID-19 (in the unvaccinated) was associated with protection of 85% against any recurrent COVID-19, 88% against hospitalization for COVID-19, and 83% against COVID-19 not requiring hospitalization. Protection remained stable over the study period with no attenuation up to 9 months from initial infection.

link [url]https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2791312[/url] or https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2791312 

this is complex...YES, countries like China, South Korea, Finland now may face high numbers of infections-in part because they managed to keep virus-spread very limited so far. Other countries-with more or less the same virus sub-variants spreading can see much lower cases...

When I look at "cases per million" Iceland, Denmark did see over 50% of their population testing positive (that is-if the number of reinfections would be limited). NL had 46,7% of its population testing positive, Israel 43,4%, France 42,8%, UK 32%, USA 24,7%...

However these statistics are also related to A; testing capacity B; A willingness to get tested...

With the newer Omicron sub-variants indications are re-infections/breaktrough cases are going up...The idea was people that had SARS-1 in 2003 would have "good protection" against SARS-2...but that may be history soon...

Lots of countries (Iran, Brazil, South Africa) may have massive waves of RE-infections !!! So "natural immunity" after catching CoViD may be far from perfect and only getting worse...

One of the problems is we have been in this pandemic for over 2 years now..."since it was supposed to be mild" the virus did spread even more widely around the globe-also most likely in (maybe up to a 100 species ?) non-human hosts...The main reason "numbers go down" is "testing going down" bad politics...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-sars-cov-2-impairs-lipid-metabolic-and-autophagic-pathways,-causing-damage-to-heart,-liver-and-kidneys-the-phytochemical-trigonelline-helps[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-sars-cov-2-impairs-lipid-metabolic-and-autophagic-pathways,-causing-damage-to-heart,-liver-and-kidneys-the-phytochemical-trigonelline-helps CoViD-19 can damage organs (and coffee may offer some protection  ?)

[url]https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps[/url] or https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps for Europe, NL, Belgium show "moderate excess deaths" between 4% and 7% above what should be expected in week 14...France, Italy, Portugal, Austria, Denmark had "low excess", 2%-4% above "normal"...

DJ-If you loke at excess deaths per year, worldwide you also have to include wars, climate change, famines etc. we also here in NL had a bit more flu-activity...co-infection of flu and corona lu-rona" may increase risks of dying...but do people then die from A.Flu ? B. Corona ? C. age/other health issue ? D. A combination of these...making statistics even harder to understand...

[url]https://twitter.com/RajlabN[/url] or https://twitter.com/RajlabN trying to follow US situation, also BA.4/BA.5 possibly a major risk in Southern Africa;

Rajeev

@Rajeev_The_King
 · 
Gauteng has shown a rapid rise in new cases over recent days. The last two specimen dates are above 2000 cases. This could be a possible signal for the start of a new wave, which is supported by wastewater surveillance data from all districts in Gauteng.

DJ, Sewage-sampling may be a better alternative for massive testing. Nasal vaccinations offer better protection...why these steps take so long ??? Why even a discussion on basic NPI is that hard ? (Here in NL cimema's, theatres often only get 50% of the old audience back...public transport often is not on prepandemic level number of travelers...Also shops may see still lower then pre-pandemic clients...I think some basic rules could see more social activity...also restore some trust in "politics"...). 

Dr. Deepti Gurdasani

@dgurdasani1
 · 
It's clear that long COVID is having a significant impact on health, and given those most at risk are in working age groups, the impact on the economy is also likely to be significant. Businesses are now reporting that long COVID is a major cause of absence.

Ignoring "Long CoViD" (LC) is a very major mistake !

For those saying we should allow people to keep getting infected to build an immunity, people are now getting reinfected 3 weeks after their last infection. Their chances of getting long Covid also go up significantly.   https://theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/21/woman-31-catches-covid-twice-within-21-days-spain

DJ To be honest, I think the idea of "herd immunity" is a disaster...an excuse for "incompetent leaders" going for "the economy=profit" !








We no longer, as world human population, have any serious say in SARS2 epi, bc, outside of Far E, we gave up. I don't like this either, but here we are. Please don't bother blaming anyone in particular. The world gave up.

so the result is "a deathly virus out of control"....

Replying to  and 
All these little dirty tricks that our governments are doing to conceal the scope of the pandemic are criminal malfeasance that misguides people about their risk & what's actually happening. This diabolic deliberate miscounting is now looking very alike the Chinese cover-up.

DJ, If "Chinese cover-up" means reporting to low numbers, proberbly may be correct...However I still have lots of ??? on how/where this pandemic started. [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/origins/research-evidence-of-sars-cov-2-before-wuhan-outbreak-in-2019/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/origins/research-evidence-of-sars-cov-2-before-wuhan-outbreak-in-2019/ there are by now lots of findings outside China from before the major Wuhan-crisis...Did the october 2019 Wuhan-military games start the global spread ? If you look at patterns; Africa did bring a lot of variants...but also bats living in the border-zone of China with Laos, Thailand, Myanmar, Vietnam have over 30 corona-virusses...Escape from a lab somewhere ???

End of part 2

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 68892
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 24 2022 at 2:53am

DJ, 

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ now has no country reporting more the 100,000 cases, weekend numbers resulting in "only" close to 550,000 new cases being reported-trend -21%. Global reported deaths 1,540-trend -15%...very good to see both cases and deaths going down...but not that realistic...lots of countries simply stopped reporting cases...specialy during weekends...

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/ may be more of use...

-North America cases +4%, deaths still -17%

-Africa cases by now +24%, deaths +6%

-India cases +126% !!!!, deaths +8%

-China cases +29%, deaths +4% (China [url]https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-04-24/COVID-19-cases-fluctuate-as-death-toll-rises-in-Shanghai-19utofnPj56/index.html[/url] or https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-04-24/COVID-19-cases-fluctuate-as-death-toll-rises-in-Shanghai-19utofnPj56/index.html reporting another 39 deaths today...[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/ 

We did see major waves in South Korea and Hong Kong, it now looks like that kind of a wave is on its way in China, India, the US...61 countries report an increase of cases, 45 see an increase of deaths...Most likely lots of different variants, resulting in lots of different waves from Finland cases +76%, Taiwan cases +184%, Spain cases +18%, Saudi Arabia +12% (= risk of MERS-mixing ???).

UK reporting now two weeks with more then 1,700 CoViD deaths per week, Germany had 1,100+ last week, now 1,200+ this week...also Italy now above 1,000 deaths per week..

Excess deaths again is another indicator-Omicron most likely a slow killer...[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/recombinants/xl/italy-omicron-recombinants-xj-and-xl-at-32-of-sequences-in-sardinia/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/recombinants/xl/italy-omicron-recombinants-xj-and-xl-at-32-of-sequences-in-sardinia/

Recent Italian SARS-CoV-2 genome sequencing information has shown that the Omicron BA1/BA2 recombinants XJ and XL are making strong headway on the island of Sardinia.

In the most recent flash survey, the XL recombinant is at 20.9% of sequences from Sardinia, and the XJ recombinant is at 11.6% of sequences, a total of 32.5% of all sequences for the island.

and [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/recombinants/xd/france-xd-recombinant-lacks-a-competitive-advantage-over-ba-2/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/recombinants/xd/france-xd-recombinant-lacks-a-competitive-advantage-over-ba-2/ 

France has just published a new risk analysis for SARS-CoV-2 variants circulating in the country. The headline from the report is that the Deltacron recombinant XD is struggling to compete with Omicron BA.2. The risk analysis has been translated into English and republished below, as it covers far more than just the XD recombinant.

DJ Recombinations often are reported but in low numbers...it is another worry if recombinations find ways for increased spread. 

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/long-covid/uk-study-only-a-quarter-of-hospitalized-covid-patients-are-fully-recovered-after-one-year/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/long-covid/uk-study-only-a-quarter-of-hospitalized-covid-patients-are-fully-recovered-after-one-year/ ;

A UK study of more than 2,000 patients after hospitalization with COVID-19 shows only around 1 in 4 feel fully recovered after one year.

The study authors found that being female versus being male (32% less likely), having obesity (half as likely) and having had mechanical ventilation in hospital (58% less likely) were all associated with a lower probability of feeling fully recovered at one year. The most common ongoing long-COVID symptoms were fatigue, muscle pain, physically slowing down, poor sleep, and breathlessness.

One of the study author’s said: “The limited recovery from 5 months to 1 year after hospitalisation in our study across symptoms, mental health, exercise capacity, organ impairment, and quality-of-life is striking.”

Eurekalert.org press release

Lancet Study: Clinical characteristics with inflammation profiling of long COVID and association with 1-year recovery following hospitalisation in the UK: a prospective observational study

DJ Women are more likely to develop auto-immune diseases-while men in the same conditions die...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-china-starts-using-the-antibiotic-minocycline-that-also-has-antiviral-properties-to-treat-covid-19[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-china-starts-using-the-antibiotic-minocycline-that-also-has-antiviral-properties-to-treat-covid-19 lots of links in the article. China is not the first country to use this drug. One reason why it is not standard may be "limited success"? (Another not enough profit ? But that would be less a factor in more state-run countries, where big pharma is owned by the government...). It may also do more for some groups, with some subvariants...

[url]https://twitter.com/x2indspeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2indspeculator with a.o. 








Here also a plot with the raw confirmed case numbers by variant in South Africa. Clearly a steep BA.4 & BA.5-driven rise... Too soon to know what impact this will have on hospitalisations. But a significant wave every 6 months seems likely...


Image

1

8

21


BA.4 related 5th wave starting in South Africa, and 








New  update notes „169 cases of acute hepatitis of unknown origin have been reported“ from Europe and US. 17 children have required liver transplantation; at least one death has been reported. https://who.int/emergencies/di
-

-„Adenovirus has been detected in at least 74 cases, and of the number of cases with information on molecular testing, 18 have been identified as F type 41. #SARSCoV2 was identified in 20 cases of those that were tested.“ 19 were detected with #SARSCoV2 and adenovirus co-infection

Hepatitis as a severe complication of CoViD/Adeno-viral co-infection in young children ? 

DJ More on recombinations [url]https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/raj.rajnarayanan/viz/TrackingSARSCoV2RecombinantLineages/SARSCoV2_Recombinants[/url] or https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/raj.rajnarayanan/viz/TrackingSARSCoV2RecombinantLineages/SARSCoV2_Recombinants 

DJ-We are not even any longer pretending to stop the pandemic...so it will get worse !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 68892
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 24 2022 at 9:49pm

DJ,

Two strategy-extremes; Zero CoViD [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/beijing-residents-scramble-stockpile-food-essentials-new-covid-outbreak-detected[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/beijing-residents-scramble-stockpile-food-essentials-new-covid-outbreak-detected with a lockdown coming to Bejing...[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/eu-agrees-online-censorship-laws[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/eu-agrees-online-censorship-laws or denial-censorship...

Both authoritarian, a risk for democracy. Both also not effective enough in stopping the pandemic.

DJ-I want to allow myself some "hopium" ! Better-nasalspray-vaccines, better anti-virals, mixed with "limited" NPI, masks in public spaces, no mass events should be able to limit the pandemic?

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/what-they-are-not-telling-you-about-the-covid-19-pandemic,-about-the-sars-cov-2-virus,-its-emerging-variants-and-long-covid[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/what-they-are-not-telling-you-about-the-covid-19-pandemic,-about-the-sars-cov-2-virus,-its-emerging-variants-and-long-covid  however may indicate dealing with this pandemic will be a "very long march" not a short sprint...

Comparing this pandemic with another "unwelcome reality"; climate "change" also offers limited hope (to put it very optimistic). The political belief is we "have to live with both; climate change and "the virus" ....reality is we may not survive "living with it"....

Instead of global cooperation we now face global war with tens of millions of refugees; people looking for safety and a future...Pandemics mixed with wars did see the healthcrisis getting much worse in the past...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirty_Years%27_War#Human_and_financial_cost_of_the_war[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirty_Years%27_War#Human_and_financial_cost_of_the_war ;Historians often refer to the 'General Crisis' of the mid-17th century, a period of sustained conflict in states such as China, the British IslesTsarist Russia and the Holy Roman Empire. In all these areas, war, famine and disease inflicted severe losses on local populations.[148] While the Thirty Years War certainly ranks as one of the worst of these events, 19th century nationalists often increased or exaggerated its impact to illustrate the dangers of a divided Germany.[149] Suggestions of up to 12 million deaths from a population of 18 million are no longer accepted, while claims of material losses are either not supported by contemporary evidence or in some cases exceed prewar tax records

-

The modern consensus is the population of the Holy Roman Empire declined from 18 to 20 million in 1600 to 11–13 million in 1650, and did not regain pre-war levels until 1750.[159] Nearly 50% of these losses appear to have been incurred during the first period of Swedish intervention from 1630 to 1635. The high mortality rate compared to the Wars of the Three Kingdoms in Britain may partly be due to the reliance of all sides on foreign mercenaries, often unpaid and required to live off the land.[160] Lack of a sense of 'shared community' resulted in atrocities such as the destruction of Magdeburg, in turn creating large numbers of refugees who were extremely susceptible to sickness and hunger. While flight saved lives in the short-term, in the long run it often proved catastrophic

DJ So here the discussion is did the war/healthcrisis kill 1/3 or 2/3 of the population....That was 1600-1650, we now have "better weapons"....

Living with it ; [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/preprint-serious-brain-disorders-following-mild-covid-19/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/preprint-serious-brain-disorders-following-mild-covid-19/ ;

In 43 patients, disorders ranged from brain inflammation and delirium to nerve damage and stroke. A dozen patients had inflammation of the central nervous system, 10 had brain disease with delirium or psychosis, eight had strokes and a further eight had peripheral nerve problems, mostly diagnosed as Guillain-Barré syndrome, an immune reaction that attacks the nerves and causes paralysis.

The cases, published in the journal Brain, revealed a rise in a life-threatening condition called acute disseminated encephalomyelitis (Adem), as the first wave of infections swept through Britain. At UCL’s Institute of Neurology, Adem cases rose from one a month before the pandemic to two or three per week in April and May. One woman, who was 59, died of the complication.

Article in Brain magazine

DJ, "Long CoViD" (LC) is a fast growing global problem resulting in tens of millions of people being unable to do a full time job...

State of the pandemic could “all change tomorrow and that’s what the public is not willing to hear,” Dr. Michael Osterholm tells . “I don’t know what this next 210-mile-an-hour curveball is going to be thrown at us by these variants.” https://abcn.ws/38ieVSU

In the US the next wave also has started, BA.2.12.1 linked...in Africa BA.4 is causing another wave...

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/ limited/no reporting cases in the weekend leaves global cases at -21%...US cases -1%....North America trend is cases +4%, deaths -14%, Africa cases +33%, deaths +14%. Different sub-variants resulting in different numbers often per country...also linked to "natural immunity/high number of previous cases"...

DJ Why there is still no "stool-testing" ? What does it mean if feaces have viral RNA ? How much of a healthrisks are those persons ? 

The utter confusion in the financial markets today is one for the history books. High inflation vs. crashing commodity prices? Hiking rates vs. market crash? Supply chain problems vs. demand destruction? Pandemic over vs. Beijing in possible lockdown? To order or not?

The economic damage is getting extreme, the idea was "to save the economy" short term thinking...

Thread on the limitations of vaccine protection against Long Covid. Note: None of the hazard ratios (reductions of effects after vaccination) are better than 70% (30% reduction).

DJ; Message again simple; try NOT to catch the virus ! Even 30% reduction-from a pandemic viewpoint-is welcome ! It is "less worse" to see 70,000 LC patients then 100,000 Long CoViD (LC) cases !

The duration of this crisis, erosion of healthcare (HCW-ers exhausted, getting infected) and a global political crisis resulting in "hard times"...

DJ-Maybe put it even in other words; we humans dominated this planet for a few hundred years...the virus is replacing us...Can the virus survive [url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/04/runaway-temperature-rise-by-2026.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/04/runaway-temperature-rise-by-2026.html

Enjoy the moments, the good things life may still offer...


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 68892
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 26 2022 at 12:08am

DJ, 

In latest news-NUCLEAR WAR-I try to "get my perspective" on the main global crisis. Both the pandemic and climate collapse are "just" segments, parts of this global worsening crisis. 

Due to very serious new developments in the global war I may decide to put more attention to that war-or "take some time off"...

I hate "fear-porn"; on the other hand I also hate "denialism"...try to get a "balanced view" on open sources that have links;

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/ DJ with weekend-extreme low-"real" numbers (383,230 cases/1,799 deaths-Sunday april 24) trends for cases -16%, deaths -9%...

This is BAD !!! Because we did decrease testing and reporting, "adjust the scale" but from -30% for cases last week we now see cases going up...

In climate change "adjusting the scale" means "keeping temperature rise below 1,5C" but a baseline that does no longer mean "pre-industrial" but a political one...A more realistic baseline would need to at least look at 1750 as "pre-industrial"; but the outcome we are allready close to 2,5C temperature rise is "political unwanted"...

In this pandemic "freedom" resulting in millions of new cases each day, high excess deaths is "political unwelcome"...also "against the war-effort" soon may be even a "military secret"...

For now; 

Germany cases +12%, deaths +23%

USA cases +9%, deaths -22% 

China cases -6% as far as reported (in China a case=a symptomatic case...), deaths +4% DJ 3 last week, 135 this week =close to +240% I do not know why Worldometers make it "4%"...

South Africa cases +140%, deaths +83%

India cases +93%, deaths -2% (with major testing/reporting issues)

A look at some regions;

North America cases +11%, deaths -11%

South America cases -4%, deaths -3%

Africa cases +38%, deaths +7%

Oceania cases -2%, deaths -7%

In total 84 countries now reporting an increase of cases, 57 see an increase of deaths. DJ-These statistics have limited value both because of weekend=much less reporting and in general lack of reporting. 

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/asia/china/china-16-cases-of-omicron-ba-2-3-reported-in-yantai-shandong/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/asia/china/china-16-cases-of-omicron-ba-2-3-reported-in-yantai-shandong/

16 cases of Omicron BA.2.3, were reported on Monday in Yantai, East China’s Shandong Province, the first time the strain has been detected in the Chinese mainland.

DJ, Yantai is a portcity in NE China on the Yellow Sea-on the other side of that sea is Korea. South Korea did see an explosion of BA.2.3

Since China is sticking to "Zero-CoViD" it may be able to limit the pandemic somewhat. At high economic/social costs. Yesterday (worldometers) China reported another 2,680 new cases and 51 deaths. 

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/hepatitis/feb-2022-research-severe-hepatitis-in-pediatric-covid-19/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/hepatitis/feb-2022-research-severe-hepatitis-in-pediatric-covid-19/ ;So it’s pure coincidence that cases of hepatitis in children are popping up right across the globe during a global pandemic of a virus that is known to cause hepatitis?

DJ CoViD is doing damage all over the body...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/study-shows-that-long-covid-is-more-predominant-than-thought-with-only-1-out-of-4-hospitalized-covid-19-patients-feeling-fully-recovered-after-one-yea[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/study-shows-that-long-covid-is-more-predominant-than-thought-with-only-1-out-of-4-hospitalized-covid-19-patients-feeling-fully-recovered-after-one-yea r DJ-And Omicron-often missed; mild early symptoms and test-escape-still indications are the virus doing lots of damage later on (but simply not enough data-also a lot only-so far-reporting cold-like symptoms without further long term complications-so for the new BA.2/BA.4 "Omicron" variants (not named otherwise since-"politics"Omicron would be the last Variant Of Concern...) is to early to tell...

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 68892
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 26 2022 at 1:39am

DJ, 

Some twitter etc; 








Shanghai reports 52 new coronavirus deaths, the biggest one-day increase on record

DJ, Unclear info from China-but all indications are China is seeing lots of cases in lots of places-most likely BA.2.2 (Hong Kong) and BA.2.3 (South Korea) are spreading...but very likely also other subvariants/recombinations. 

U.S. COVID update: New cases continue to rise, up 32% from last week - New cases: 62,147 - Average: 50,935 (+1,334) - States reporting: 28/50 - In hospital: 14,439 (+42) - In ICU: 1,803 (+18) - New deaths: 251 - Average: 394 (-4)

DJ Worldometer reporting US cases +9%, but for them the US also includes overseas parts of the US (US Samoa, Virgin-islands, Guam etc). Still a major difference in reported numbers! 

Replying to 
Every model estimates 2-7x the reported.  Take your pick between 120K and 400K cases today. Vaccines are working to keep Americans out of the hospital. Long Covid? That's a different question








Replying to 
Every model estimates 2-7x the reported.  Take your pick between 120K and 400K cases today. Vaccines are working to keep Americans out of the hospital. Long Covid? That's a different question

1



1










Replying to 
Every model estimates 2-7x the reported.  Take your pick between 120K and 400K cases today. Vaccines are working to keep Americans out of the hospital. Long Covid? That's a different question

1



1


The US has "limited vaccine protection" compared with Europe/Israel...also new subvariants are better in evading immunity...Waning immunity is a fast growing problem !








So about that pediatric Hepatitis "phenomenon": this was already described back in July 2021 in India - it was associated with past Covid-19 infections. Still    & others are blaming some Adenovirus for this, ignoring the obvious.

link [url]https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.23.21260716v6[/url] or https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.23.21260716v6 DJ-By now it should be clear the CoViD-19/SARS-2 corona virus may be able to hide in the body and do damage all over the host body...Or is this part now also being denied ? Because "we have to live with it"????

Tom Wenseleers

@TWenseleers
 · 
The BA.4 & BA.5 Omicron subvariant-driven increase of new confirmed Covid cases in South Africa gives a good idea of what the endemic equilibrium will look like: a significant wave every 6 months with significant mortality & morbidity. πŸ§΅

-









We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 68892
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 26 2022 at 2:15am

part 3, twitter post have problems...