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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Now tracking the new emerging South Africa Omicron Variant

scenario's

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 22 2022 at 11:14pm

DJ-part 2

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/reinfection/preprint-rates-of-covid-19-among-unvaccinated-adults-with-prior-infection/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/reinfection/preprint-rates-of-covid-19-among-unvaccinated-adults-with-prior-infection/ ;Prior COVID-19 (in the unvaccinated) was associated with protection of 85% against any recurrent COVID-19, 88% against hospitalization for COVID-19, and 83% against COVID-19 not requiring hospitalization. Protection remained stable over the study period with no attenuation up to 9 months from initial infection.

link [url]https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2791312[/url] or https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2791312 

this is complex...YES, countries like China, South Korea, Finland now may face high numbers of infections-in part because they managed to keep virus-spread very limited so far. Other countries-with more or less the same virus sub-variants spreading can see much lower cases...

When I look at "cases per million" Iceland, Denmark did see over 50% of their population testing positive (that is-if the number of reinfections would be limited). NL had 46,7% of its population testing positive, Israel 43,4%, France 42,8%, UK 32%, USA 24,7%...

However these statistics are also related to A; testing capacity B; A willingness to get tested...

With the newer Omicron sub-variants indications are re-infections/breaktrough cases are going up...The idea was people that had SARS-1 in 2003 would have "good protection" against SARS-2...but that may be history soon...

Lots of countries (Iran, Brazil, South Africa) may have massive waves of RE-infections !!! So "natural immunity" after catching CoViD may be far from perfect and only getting worse...

One of the problems is we have been in this pandemic for over 2 years now..."since it was supposed to be mild" the virus did spread even more widely around the globe-also most likely in (maybe up to a 100 species ?) non-human hosts...The main reason "numbers go down" is "testing going down" bad politics...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-sars-cov-2-impairs-lipid-metabolic-and-autophagic-pathways,-causing-damage-to-heart,-liver-and-kidneys-the-phytochemical-trigonelline-helps[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-sars-cov-2-impairs-lipid-metabolic-and-autophagic-pathways,-causing-damage-to-heart,-liver-and-kidneys-the-phytochemical-trigonelline-helps CoViD-19 can damage organs (and coffee may offer some protection  ?)

[url]https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps[/url] or https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps for Europe, NL, Belgium show "moderate excess deaths" between 4% and 7% above what should be expected in week 14...France, Italy, Portugal, Austria, Denmark had "low excess", 2%-4% above "normal"...

DJ-If you loke at excess deaths per year, worldwide you also have to include wars, climate change, famines etc. we also here in NL had a bit more flu-activity...co-infection of flu and corona lu-rona" may increase risks of dying...but do people then die from A.Flu ? B. Corona ? C. age/other health issue ? D. A combination of these...making statistics even harder to understand...

[url]https://twitter.com/RajlabN[/url] or https://twitter.com/RajlabN trying to follow US situation, also BA.4/BA.5 possibly a major risk in Southern Africa;

Rajeev

@Rajeev_The_King
 · 
Gauteng has shown a rapid rise in new cases over recent days. The last two specimen dates are above 2000 cases. This could be a possible signal for the start of a new wave, which is supported by wastewater surveillance data from all districts in Gauteng.

DJ, Sewage-sampling may be a better alternative for massive testing. Nasal vaccinations offer better protection...why these steps take so long ??? Why even a discussion on basic NPI is that hard ? (Here in NL cimema's, theatres often only get 50% of the old audience back...public transport often is not on prepandemic level number of travelers...Also shops may see still lower then pre-pandemic clients...I think some basic rules could see more social activity...also restore some trust in "politics"...). 

Dr. Deepti Gurdasani

@dgurdasani1
 · 
It's clear that long COVID is having a significant impact on health, and given those most at risk are in working age groups, the impact on the economy is also likely to be significant. Businesses are now reporting that long COVID is a major cause of absence.

Ignoring "Long CoViD" (LC) is a very major mistake !

For those saying we should allow people to keep getting infected to build an immunity, people are now getting reinfected 3 weeks after their last infection. Their chances of getting long Covid also go up significantly.   https://theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/21/woman-31-catches-covid-twice-within-21-days-spain

DJ To be honest, I think the idea of "herd immunity" is a disaster...an excuse for "incompetent leaders" going for "the economy=profit" !








We no longer, as world human population, have any serious say in SARS2 epi, bc, outside of Far E, we gave up. I don't like this either, but here we are. Please don't bother blaming anyone in particular. The world gave up.

so the result is "a deathly virus out of control"....

Replying to  and 
All these little dirty tricks that our governments are doing to conceal the scope of the pandemic are criminal malfeasance that misguides people about their risk & what's actually happening. This diabolic deliberate miscounting is now looking very alike the Chinese cover-up.

DJ, If "Chinese cover-up" means reporting to low numbers, proberbly may be correct...However I still have lots of ??? on how/where this pandemic started. [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/origins/research-evidence-of-sars-cov-2-before-wuhan-outbreak-in-2019/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/origins/research-evidence-of-sars-cov-2-before-wuhan-outbreak-in-2019/ there are by now lots of findings outside China from before the major Wuhan-crisis...Did the october 2019 Wuhan-military games start the global spread ? If you look at patterns; Africa did bring a lot of variants...but also bats living in the border-zone of China with Laos, Thailand, Myanmar, Vietnam have over 30 corona-virusses...Escape from a lab somewhere ???

End of part 2

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 24 2022 at 2:53am

DJ, 

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ now has no country reporting more the 100,000 cases, weekend numbers resulting in "only" close to 550,000 new cases being reported-trend -21%. Global reported deaths 1,540-trend -15%...very good to see both cases and deaths going down...but not that realistic...lots of countries simply stopped reporting cases...specialy during weekends...

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/ may be more of use...

-North America cases +4%, deaths still -17%

-Africa cases by now +24%, deaths +6%

-India cases +126% !!!!, deaths +8%

-China cases +29%, deaths +4% (China [url]https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-04-24/COVID-19-cases-fluctuate-as-death-toll-rises-in-Shanghai-19utofnPj56/index.html[/url] or https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-04-24/COVID-19-cases-fluctuate-as-death-toll-rises-in-Shanghai-19utofnPj56/index.html reporting another 39 deaths today...[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/ 

We did see major waves in South Korea and Hong Kong, it now looks like that kind of a wave is on its way in China, India, the US...61 countries report an increase of cases, 45 see an increase of deaths...Most likely lots of different variants, resulting in lots of different waves from Finland cases +76%, Taiwan cases +184%, Spain cases +18%, Saudi Arabia +12% (= risk of MERS-mixing ???).

UK reporting now two weeks with more then 1,700 CoViD deaths per week, Germany had 1,100+ last week, now 1,200+ this week...also Italy now above 1,000 deaths per week..

Excess deaths again is another indicator-Omicron most likely a slow killer...[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/recombinants/xl/italy-omicron-recombinants-xj-and-xl-at-32-of-sequences-in-sardinia/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/recombinants/xl/italy-omicron-recombinants-xj-and-xl-at-32-of-sequences-in-sardinia/

Recent Italian SARS-CoV-2 genome sequencing information has shown that the Omicron BA1/BA2 recombinants XJ and XL are making strong headway on the island of Sardinia.

In the most recent flash survey, the XL recombinant is at 20.9% of sequences from Sardinia, and the XJ recombinant is at 11.6% of sequences, a total of 32.5% of all sequences for the island.

and [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/recombinants/xd/france-xd-recombinant-lacks-a-competitive-advantage-over-ba-2/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/recombinants/xd/france-xd-recombinant-lacks-a-competitive-advantage-over-ba-2/ 

France has just published a new risk analysis for SARS-CoV-2 variants circulating in the country. The headline from the report is that the Deltacron recombinant XD is struggling to compete with Omicron BA.2. The risk analysis has been translated into English and republished below, as it covers far more than just the XD recombinant.

DJ Recombinations often are reported but in low numbers...it is another worry if recombinations find ways for increased spread. 

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/long-covid/uk-study-only-a-quarter-of-hospitalized-covid-patients-are-fully-recovered-after-one-year/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/long-covid/uk-study-only-a-quarter-of-hospitalized-covid-patients-are-fully-recovered-after-one-year/ ;

A UK study of more than 2,000 patients after hospitalization with COVID-19 shows only around 1 in 4 feel fully recovered after one year.

The study authors found that being female versus being male (32% less likely), having obesity (half as likely) and having had mechanical ventilation in hospital (58% less likely) were all associated with a lower probability of feeling fully recovered at one year. The most common ongoing long-COVID symptoms were fatigue, muscle pain, physically slowing down, poor sleep, and breathlessness.

One of the study author’s said: “The limited recovery from 5 months to 1 year after hospitalisation in our study across symptoms, mental health, exercise capacity, organ impairment, and quality-of-life is striking.”

Eurekalert.org press release

Lancet Study: Clinical characteristics with inflammation profiling of long COVID and association with 1-year recovery following hospitalisation in the UK: a prospective observational study

DJ Women are more likely to develop auto-immune diseases-while men in the same conditions die...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-china-starts-using-the-antibiotic-minocycline-that-also-has-antiviral-properties-to-treat-covid-19[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-china-starts-using-the-antibiotic-minocycline-that-also-has-antiviral-properties-to-treat-covid-19 lots of links in the article. China is not the first country to use this drug. One reason why it is not standard may be "limited success"? (Another not enough profit ? But that would be less a factor in more state-run countries, where big pharma is owned by the government...). It may also do more for some groups, with some subvariants...

[url]https://twitter.com/x2indspeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2indspeculator with a.o. 








Here also a plot with the raw confirmed case numbers by variant in South Africa. Clearly a steep BA.4 & BA.5-driven rise... Too soon to know what impact this will have on hospitalisations. But a significant wave every 6 months seems likely...


Image

1

8

21


BA.4 related 5th wave starting in South Africa, and 








New  update notes „169 cases of acute hepatitis of unknown origin have been reported“ from Europe and US. 17 children have required liver transplantation; at least one death has been reported. https://who.int/emergencies/di
-

-„Adenovirus has been detected in at least 74 cases, and of the number of cases with information on molecular testing, 18 have been identified as F type 41. #SARSCoV2 was identified in 20 cases of those that were tested.“ 19 were detected with #SARSCoV2 and adenovirus co-infection

Hepatitis as a severe complication of CoViD/Adeno-viral co-infection in young children ? 

DJ More on recombinations [url]https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/raj.rajnarayanan/viz/TrackingSARSCoV2RecombinantLineages/SARSCoV2_Recombinants[/url] or https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/raj.rajnarayanan/viz/TrackingSARSCoV2RecombinantLineages/SARSCoV2_Recombinants 

DJ-We are not even any longer pretending to stop the pandemic...so it will get worse !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 24 2022 at 9:49pm

DJ,

Two strategy-extremes; Zero CoViD [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/beijing-residents-scramble-stockpile-food-essentials-new-covid-outbreak-detected[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/beijing-residents-scramble-stockpile-food-essentials-new-covid-outbreak-detected with a lockdown coming to Bejing...[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/eu-agrees-online-censorship-laws[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/eu-agrees-online-censorship-laws or denial-censorship...

Both authoritarian, a risk for democracy. Both also not effective enough in stopping the pandemic.

DJ-I want to allow myself some "hopium" ! Better-nasalspray-vaccines, better anti-virals, mixed with "limited" NPI, masks in public spaces, no mass events should be able to limit the pandemic?

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/what-they-are-not-telling-you-about-the-covid-19-pandemic,-about-the-sars-cov-2-virus,-its-emerging-variants-and-long-covid[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/what-they-are-not-telling-you-about-the-covid-19-pandemic,-about-the-sars-cov-2-virus,-its-emerging-variants-and-long-covid  however may indicate dealing with this pandemic will be a "very long march" not a short sprint...

Comparing this pandemic with another "unwelcome reality"; climate "change" also offers limited hope (to put it very optimistic). The political belief is we "have to live with both; climate change and "the virus" ....reality is we may not survive "living with it"....

Instead of global cooperation we now face global war with tens of millions of refugees; people looking for safety and a future...Pandemics mixed with wars did see the healthcrisis getting much worse in the past...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirty_Years%27_War#Human_and_financial_cost_of_the_war[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirty_Years%27_War#Human_and_financial_cost_of_the_war ;Historians often refer to the 'General Crisis' of the mid-17th century, a period of sustained conflict in states such as China, the British IslesTsarist Russia and the Holy Roman Empire. In all these areas, war, famine and disease inflicted severe losses on local populations.[148] While the Thirty Years War certainly ranks as one of the worst of these events, 19th century nationalists often increased or exaggerated its impact to illustrate the dangers of a divided Germany.[149] Suggestions of up to 12 million deaths from a population of 18 million are no longer accepted, while claims of material losses are either not supported by contemporary evidence or in some cases exceed prewar tax records

-

The modern consensus is the population of the Holy Roman Empire declined from 18 to 20 million in 1600 to 11–13 million in 1650, and did not regain pre-war levels until 1750.[159] Nearly 50% of these losses appear to have been incurred during the first period of Swedish intervention from 1630 to 1635. The high mortality rate compared to the Wars of the Three Kingdoms in Britain may partly be due to the reliance of all sides on foreign mercenaries, often unpaid and required to live off the land.[160] Lack of a sense of 'shared community' resulted in atrocities such as the destruction of Magdeburg, in turn creating large numbers of refugees who were extremely susceptible to sickness and hunger. While flight saved lives in the short-term, in the long run it often proved catastrophic

DJ So here the discussion is did the war/healthcrisis kill 1/3 or 2/3 of the population....That was 1600-1650, we now have "better weapons"....

Living with it ; [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/preprint-serious-brain-disorders-following-mild-covid-19/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/preprint-serious-brain-disorders-following-mild-covid-19/ ;

In 43 patients, disorders ranged from brain inflammation and delirium to nerve damage and stroke. A dozen patients had inflammation of the central nervous system, 10 had brain disease with delirium or psychosis, eight had strokes and a further eight had peripheral nerve problems, mostly diagnosed as Guillain-Barré syndrome, an immune reaction that attacks the nerves and causes paralysis.

The cases, published in the journal Brain, revealed a rise in a life-threatening condition called acute disseminated encephalomyelitis (Adem), as the first wave of infections swept through Britain. At UCL’s Institute of Neurology, Adem cases rose from one a month before the pandemic to two or three per week in April and May. One woman, who was 59, died of the complication.

Article in Brain magazine

DJ, "Long CoViD" (LC) is a fast growing global problem resulting in tens of millions of people being unable to do a full time job...

State of the pandemic could “all change tomorrow and that’s what the public is not willing to hear,” Dr. Michael Osterholm tells . “I don’t know what this next 210-mile-an-hour curveball is going to be thrown at us by these variants.” https://abcn.ws/38ieVSU

In the US the next wave also has started, BA.2.12.1 linked...in Africa BA.4 is causing another wave...

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/ limited/no reporting cases in the weekend leaves global cases at -21%...US cases -1%....North America trend is cases +4%, deaths -14%, Africa cases +33%, deaths +14%. Different sub-variants resulting in different numbers often per country...also linked to "natural immunity/high number of previous cases"...

DJ Why there is still no "stool-testing" ? What does it mean if feaces have viral RNA ? How much of a healthrisks are those persons ? 

The utter confusion in the financial markets today is one for the history books. High inflation vs. crashing commodity prices? Hiking rates vs. market crash? Supply chain problems vs. demand destruction? Pandemic over vs. Beijing in possible lockdown? To order or not?

The economic damage is getting extreme, the idea was "to save the economy" short term thinking...

Thread on the limitations of vaccine protection against Long Covid. Note: None of the hazard ratios (reductions of effects after vaccination) are better than 70% (30% reduction).

DJ; Message again simple; try NOT to catch the virus ! Even 30% reduction-from a pandemic viewpoint-is welcome ! It is "less worse" to see 70,000 LC patients then 100,000 Long CoViD (LC) cases !

The duration of this crisis, erosion of healthcare (HCW-ers exhausted, getting infected) and a global political crisis resulting in "hard times"...

DJ-Maybe put it even in other words; we humans dominated this planet for a few hundred years...the virus is replacing us...Can the virus survive [url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/04/runaway-temperature-rise-by-2026.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/04/runaway-temperature-rise-by-2026.html

Enjoy the moments, the good things life may still offer...


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 26 2022 at 12:08am

DJ, 

In latest news-NUCLEAR WAR-I try to "get my perspective" on the main global crisis. Both the pandemic and climate collapse are "just" segments, parts of this global worsening crisis. 

Due to very serious new developments in the global war I may decide to put more attention to that war-or "take some time off"...

I hate "fear-porn"; on the other hand I also hate "denialism"...try to get a "balanced view" on open sources that have links;

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/ DJ with weekend-extreme low-"real" numbers (383,230 cases/1,799 deaths-Sunday april 24) trends for cases -16%, deaths -9%...

This is BAD !!! Because we did decrease testing and reporting, "adjust the scale" but from -30% for cases last week we now see cases going up...

In climate change "adjusting the scale" means "keeping temperature rise below 1,5C" but a baseline that does no longer mean "pre-industrial" but a political one...A more realistic baseline would need to at least look at 1750 as "pre-industrial"; but the outcome we are allready close to 2,5C temperature rise is "political unwanted"...

In this pandemic "freedom" resulting in millions of new cases each day, high excess deaths is "political unwelcome"...also "against the war-effort" soon may be even a "military secret"...

For now; 

Germany cases +12%, deaths +23%

USA cases +9%, deaths -22% 

China cases -6% as far as reported (in China a case=a symptomatic case...), deaths +4% DJ 3 last week, 135 this week =close to +240% I do not know why Worldometers make it "4%"...

South Africa cases +140%, deaths +83%

India cases +93%, deaths -2% (with major testing/reporting issues)

A look at some regions;

North America cases +11%, deaths -11%

South America cases -4%, deaths -3%

Africa cases +38%, deaths +7%

Oceania cases -2%, deaths -7%

In total 84 countries now reporting an increase of cases, 57 see an increase of deaths. DJ-These statistics have limited value both because of weekend=much less reporting and in general lack of reporting. 

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/asia/china/china-16-cases-of-omicron-ba-2-3-reported-in-yantai-shandong/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/asia/china/china-16-cases-of-omicron-ba-2-3-reported-in-yantai-shandong/

16 cases of Omicron BA.2.3, were reported on Monday in Yantai, East China’s Shandong Province, the first time the strain has been detected in the Chinese mainland.

DJ, Yantai is a portcity in NE China on the Yellow Sea-on the other side of that sea is Korea. South Korea did see an explosion of BA.2.3

Since China is sticking to "Zero-CoViD" it may be able to limit the pandemic somewhat. At high economic/social costs. Yesterday (worldometers) China reported another 2,680 new cases and 51 deaths. 

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/hepatitis/feb-2022-research-severe-hepatitis-in-pediatric-covid-19/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/hepatitis/feb-2022-research-severe-hepatitis-in-pediatric-covid-19/ ;So it’s pure coincidence that cases of hepatitis in children are popping up right across the globe during a global pandemic of a virus that is known to cause hepatitis?

DJ CoViD is doing damage all over the body...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/study-shows-that-long-covid-is-more-predominant-than-thought-with-only-1-out-of-4-hospitalized-covid-19-patients-feeling-fully-recovered-after-one-yea[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/study-shows-that-long-covid-is-more-predominant-than-thought-with-only-1-out-of-4-hospitalized-covid-19-patients-feeling-fully-recovered-after-one-yea r DJ-And Omicron-often missed; mild early symptoms and test-escape-still indications are the virus doing lots of damage later on (but simply not enough data-also a lot only-so far-reporting cold-like symptoms without further long term complications-so for the new BA.2/BA.4 "Omicron" variants (not named otherwise since-"politics"Omicron would be the last Variant Of Concern...) is to early to tell...

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 26 2022 at 1:39am

DJ, 

Some twitter etc; 








Shanghai reports 52 new coronavirus deaths, the biggest one-day increase on record

DJ, Unclear info from China-but all indications are China is seeing lots of cases in lots of places-most likely BA.2.2 (Hong Kong) and BA.2.3 (South Korea) are spreading...but very likely also other subvariants/recombinations. 

U.S. COVID update: New cases continue to rise, up 32% from last week - New cases: 62,147 - Average: 50,935 (+1,334) - States reporting: 28/50 - In hospital: 14,439 (+42) - In ICU: 1,803 (+18) - New deaths: 251 - Average: 394 (-4)

DJ Worldometer reporting US cases +9%, but for them the US also includes overseas parts of the US (US Samoa, Virgin-islands, Guam etc). Still a major difference in reported numbers! 

Replying to 
Every model estimates 2-7x the reported.  Take your pick between 120K and 400K cases today. Vaccines are working to keep Americans out of the hospital. Long Covid? That's a different question








Replying to 
Every model estimates 2-7x the reported.  Take your pick between 120K and 400K cases today. Vaccines are working to keep Americans out of the hospital. Long Covid? That's a different question

1



1










Replying to 
Every model estimates 2-7x the reported.  Take your pick between 120K and 400K cases today. Vaccines are working to keep Americans out of the hospital. Long Covid? That's a different question

1



1


The US has "limited vaccine protection" compared with Europe/Israel...also new subvariants are better in evading immunity...Waning immunity is a fast growing problem !








So about that pediatric Hepatitis "phenomenon": this was already described back in July 2021 in India - it was associated with past Covid-19 infections. Still    & others are blaming some Adenovirus for this, ignoring the obvious.

link [url]https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.23.21260716v6[/url] or https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.23.21260716v6 DJ-By now it should be clear the CoViD-19/SARS-2 corona virus may be able to hide in the body and do damage all over the host body...Or is this part now also being denied ? Because "we have to live with it"????

Tom Wenseleers

@TWenseleers
 · 
The BA.4 & BA.5 Omicron subvariant-driven increase of new confirmed Covid cases in South Africa gives a good idea of what the endemic equilibrium will look like: a significant wave every 6 months with significant mortality & morbidity. 🧵

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 26 2022 at 2:15am

part 3, twitter post have problems...

It's as if medicine agencies still haven't come to terms with the fact that SARS-CoV2 evolves ca 2.5x faster than the fastest evolving influenza strain. And that vaccine updates would have to be made twice as fast then as for influenza...

-

The mutations in question, L452R and F486V, were previously selected against, but now have an advantage in a population with high Omicron BA.1 immunity. And hence, will now cause a wave of reinfections.

-

This rise in cases is a little faster than expected based on the growth rate advantage of BA.4 & BA.5 per se (logistic growth advantage of 0.12 per day [0.09-0.15] 95% CLs compared to BA.2). Maybe waning immunity or behavioural or seasonal change also contribute.

The growth rate advantage of BA.4 & BA.5 over BA.2 is similar than that of BA.2 over BA.1 and of Delta over Alpha. But with caveat that BA.4 & BA.5 carry 2 mutations in the spike receptor binding domain that are predicted to confer some immune escape.

DJ the south part of the globe now is moving towards winter...with increased international airtravel however variants fly for free around the globe...








In the United Kingdom, the 7-day moving average for COVID deaths has risen to 328. Prior to the pandemic, there were 1,223 influenza deaths in 2019. Based on the current 7-day moving average, living with COVID equates to 116,768 COVID deaths per year, a 95X difference.

What is "normal"????

[url]https://twitter.com/RajlabN[/url] or https://twitter.com/RajlabN trying to follow 9mainly) the US situation;

Seems to be different than the recently classified lineage prevalent in Israel (though there are few overlaps) BA.2.31- key mutation: Orf1a:D3936N

DJ [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports has now 74 subvariants of Omicron...BA.2.31 is not yet included (could be split into BA.2.31.1 and BA.2.31.2) Outbreak.info ends at BA.2.16.... [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues may indicate lots more subvariants on their way...also recombinants are NOT in this list...Delta has now 250 AY. subvariants...

Given exponential growth and spread in non-human hosts "Omicron" may see "thousends of subvariants" allready...we miss most of them. 

The richest guy on the 2021 Forbes 400 owns the Washington Post. Number 2 now owns Twitter. Number 3 owns Facebook. Numbers 5 and 6 started Google. Numbers 4 and 9 started Microsoft. Number 10 owns Bloomberg. Free speech? You decide.

DJ Info-even public info/studies YOU paid for via tax is going behind paywalls...making "democracy even more democrazy" ! 

It is time we agree on new basic human rights; on healthcare, education, housing, transport...food, clean water, information...and put those rights above "a right for profit" ! 

Unbalance of wealth does result in "revolutions" history shows...why do we not learn from history, keep repeating wrong choices over and over again !

End of part 3

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 27 2022 at 1:19am

DJ

[url]https://eenvandaag.avrotros.nl/coronacrisis/coronacijfers/coronacijfers-aantal-coronapatienten-in-het-ziekenhuis-verpleegafdeling-en-ic/[/url] or https://eenvandaag.avrotros.nl/coronacrisis/coronacijfers/coronacijfers-aantal-coronapatienten-in-het-ziekenhuis-verpleegafdeling-en-ic/ and [url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/04/26/covid-hospitalizations-35-week[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/04/26/covid-hospitalizations-35-week ;The number of people who tested positive for the coronavirus at GGD test locations fell sharply last week. -The number of tests done also plummeted.

DJ Yes hospital/IC cases in NL are going down-reported/tested cases also going down...but hospital/IC cases still high...and if you stop testing you may see new tested cases going down...selfillusion...

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/ 83 countries report an increase of cases-even with limited/no testing...60 countries report an increase of deaths from CoViD, excess deaths numbers move much slower...but may tell a lot more. 

Global cases now at -7%, deaths at -1%...

Regions; 

Europe cases +1%, deaths +9%

North America cases +10%, deaths still at -12%

South America cases +2%, deaths -12%

Africa cases +156% !!!!!, deaths +6%

Oceania cases 0%, deaths +16%

The only reason why global numbers are not (yet) exploding Asia cases -26%, deaths -14%

However India cases +89%, China cases -21% ???? South Korea, Hong Kong had very high numbers that are still decreasing...but "a global new wave" looks to be on its way...

Beijing is doing prompt mass testing- which is good. Still on surgical masks, which could be a disaster depending on how many stealth cases there are. No one I know has been able to explain it, we have an oversupply of both KN95 masks and manufacturing capacity.

DJ China going very/to far trying to limit the spread...Yesterday april 26-reporting 52 deaths, today 48 deaths...

If 100% people were vaccinated, we wouldn't be able to calculate VE because it is a RELATIVE risk reduction. No protection would mean 78% adult #COVID deaths in a 78% vaccinated adult population. So 40% is actually not that bad: 1-(40/60)*(22/78)=81% But, not bulletproof & huge.

DJ For now vaccines may still offer protection-however we do have to take a longer term view/strategy...trying to keep cases as low as possible. Both excess deaths and Long CoViD indicate major risks...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/ukhsa-suspends-routine-covid-testing-in-hospitals-and-care-homes/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/ukhsa-suspends-routine-covid-testing-in-hospitals-and-care-homes/

More than 800 staff are due to be lost from UK health protection teams across the country in the coming months, a reduction of 40% from the current 2,000 members of staff. One insider said people were being given two weeks’ notice that their contracts were being ended early, and the way it was being dealt with was similar to the “recent situation at P&O”. The agency plans to cut jobs and suspend routine Covid testing in hospitals and care homes to save money.

Guardian report

In October 2022, when you are trying to remember where it all went really wrong for Britain, you can look back at today, 26th April 2022, and say to yourself, “yes, that was the day”.

DJ If you do not stop a virus it will spread...You can stop testing-but that does not stop infections...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/canadian-study-finds-that-sars-cov-2-infected-cells-trigger-host-tissue-factors-that-leads-to-platelet-activation-and-coagulation-[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/canadian-study-finds-that-sars-cov-2-infected-cells-trigger-host-tissue-factors-that-leads-to-platelet-activation-and-coagulation- 

DJ-Insanity is the new normal...there will be a very high price for that !


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 28 2022 at 3:21am

DJ

Some headlines/links;

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/warning-mutations-in-new-emerging-ba-2,-ba-4-subvariants-are-changing-the-main-coronavirus-protease-drastically,-rendering-many-previous-antivirals-ob[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/warning-mutations-in-new-emerging-ba-2,-ba-4-subvariants-are-changing-the-main-coronavirus-protease-drastically,-rendering-many-previous-antivirals-ob solete

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-first-human-case-of-h3n8-avian-flu-china-reported-in-china[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-first-human-case-of-h3n8-avian-flu-china-reported-in-china

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/hepatitis/2020-research-hepatitis-is-common-in-children-with-covid-19-mis-c/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/hepatitis/2020-research-hepatitis-is-common-in-children-with-covid-19-mis-c/

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/hepatitis/preprint-sars-cov-2-vaccination-can-elicit-a-cd8-t-cell-dominant-hepatitis/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/hepatitis/preprint-sars-cov-2-vaccination-can-elicit-a-cd8-t-cell-dominant-hepatitis/ ;

“Here, we report the case of a 52-year-old male, presenting with bimodal episodes of acute hepatitis, each occurring 2-3 weeks after BNT162b2 mRNA vaccination and sought to identify the underlying immune correlates. The patient received first oral budesonide, relapsed, but achieved remission under systemic steroids.”

“COVID19 vaccination can elicit a distinct T cell-dominant immune-mediated hepatitis with a unique pathomechanism associated with vaccination induced antigen-specific tissue-resident immunity requiring systemic immunosuppression.”

Journal of Hepatology article:  SARS-CoV-2 vaccination can elicit a CD8 T-cell dominant hepatitis

DJ-Hope this is very limited...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/long-covid/long-covid-49-of-covid-19-survivors-have-persistant-symptoms/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/long-covid/long-covid-49-of-covid-19-survivors-have-persistant-symptoms/ ;

Worldwide, 49% of COVID-19 survivors reported persistent symptoms 4 months after diagnosis, estimates a meta-analysis of 31 studies published late last week in The Journal of Infectious Diseases.

Long COVID prevalence among hospitalized patients was 54%, while it was 34% for outpatients.

Estimated global prevalence of long COVID was 43%, although estimates ranged from 9% to 81%, which the study authors said may be attributable to differences in sex, region, study population, and follow-up.

UMN.edu report


DJ the picture I have of CoViD is that long term damage could be (even) worse then the short term one

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/ global trend may still be -11% for cases, -3% for deaths-with still testing at low levels. A look at "regions" already gives a much more pessimistic view;

Europe cases -9%, deaths +4%  (German cases +8%, Italy +7%)

Asia cases -24%, deaths -11%...mainly due to South Korea and Hong Kong reporting sharp drops...India cases +72%, Taiwan +247%

Africa cases +8%, deaths -10% South Africa cases +175%...

North America cases +16%, deaths -9% (US cases +19%)

South America cases -13%, deaths -15%

Oceania cases -2%, deaths +31%

Replying to 
In Denmark, the excess mortality from Influenza was as follows: 2018/19: 790 2017/18: 2,822 2016/17: 751 At this year's current run rate, "living with COVID" would result in 8,840 deaths in Denmark this year, an increase of 11X over influenza-related deaths in 2019.

DJ, Is the "Zero-CoViD policy" in China (as long as it is done in a humane way !) the best strategy ? 

The disconnect between public perception and reality is frightening. Many people believe we are safe to “get back to normal”. In reality, ending mask mandates and other mitigation strategies has unleashed a torrent of respiratory viruses on us. 🧵

in the UK deaths number +54%...last week 1,340 this 7 days growing to 2,062 and that is only counting those who died within 4 weeks after a positive test NOT the excess deaths...

An orally available #Mpro #inhibitor is effective against wild-type #SARSCoV2 and variants including #Omicron https://nature.com/articles/s41564-022-01119-7

link [url]https://www.nature.com/articles/s41564-022-01119-7[/url] or https://www.nature.com/articles/s41564-022-01119-7 ;Emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants continue to cause waves of new infections globally. Developing effective antivirals against SARS-CoV-2 and its variants is an urgent task. The main protease (Mpro) of SARS-CoV-2 is an attractive drug target because of its central role in viral replication and its conservation among variants. We herein report a series of potent α-ketoamide-containing Mpro inhibitors obtained using the Ugi four-component reaction. 

DJ, As a non-expert I translate this kind of news-also [url]https://medicine.yale.edu/news-article/nasal-vaccines-may-protect-against-respiratory-viruses-better-than-injected-vaccines/[/url] or https://medicine.yale.edu/news-article/nasal-vaccines-may-protect-against-respiratory-viruses-better-than-injected-vaccines/  "there is maybe some hope of finding an effective strategy to get out of this pandemic".....but for now CoViD-infection may increase risks for other diseases...a downward spiral...

Western denialism; "living with the virus, climate collapse, ever lasting wars" as "normal" is a total disaster...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 29 2022 at 3:25am

DJ,

In the latest news; the west is using all its means in a conventional war in Ukraine-without getting out of the conflict-it has to result in a nuclear war or "change of politics" in the west...

Pakistan/India allready facing a heatwave 45-50 C [url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/04/carbon-dioxide-crosses-422-ppm.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/04/carbon-dioxide-crosses-422-ppm.html ...DJ Limiting-the best we can-damage of an unfolding climate crash...should be a global priority...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/indian-study-adds-more-evidence-that-the-asthma-drug-montelukast-singulair-can-inhibit-sars-cov-2-replication-and-is-a-potential-covid-19-drug[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/indian-study-adds-more-evidence-that-the-asthma-drug-montelukast-singulair-can-inhibit-sars-cov-2-replication-and-is-a-potential-covid-19-drug DJ Any good news on the CoViD pandemic is more then welcome !!!

The H5N1 human-case in the US-a few months back there was another one in the UK-for now looking mild. But it should be seen as a warning ! Covid-infection may cause a weaker immunity-giving H5N1, H3N8 (but also lots of others H7N7 etc) more chance. 

Since Ukraine did not do well in vaccinating against measles and polio there is a risk that Ukraine refugees (in need of safety-I hope they will find it !) may spread those diseases-so extra monitoring should be welcome !

This spring US wave (2nd #Omicron) officially doubled from circa 26k to 56k 7-day average. Last spring it rose 40% from 50k to 70k. Hospitalizations are now also rising, although still much lower than last year's spring levels (when they just flatlined).

DJ statistics are bad/poor...[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table global cases -13%, deaths -8%...Rwanda cases +400%, Namibia cases +290%, Taiwan +257%, South Africa +120%...lots of different BA.2 subvariant numbers going up...77 countries reporting an increase. Just under 645,000 new cases, 2,781 deaths being reported..

As climate change reshapes life on earth, it may also become the single biggest upstream driver of pandemic risk. Our new study in  simulates how 3,139 species will share viruses - and create new spillover risk hotspots - over the next 50 years.

link; [url]https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04788-w[/url] or https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04788-w ;At least 10,000 virus species have the capacity to infect humans, but at present, the vast majority are circulating silently in wild mammals1,2. However, climate and land use change will produce novel opportunities for viral sharing among previously geographically-isolated species of wildlife3,4.

 In some cases, this will facilitate zoonotic spillover—a mechanistic link between global environmental change and disease emergence. Here, we simulate potential hotspots of future viral sharing, using a phylogeographic model of the mammal-virus network, and projections of geographic range shifts for 3,139 mammal species under climate change and land use scenarios for the year 2070. 

We predict that species will aggregate in new combinations at high elevations, in biodiversity hotspots, and in areas of high human population density in Asia and Africa, driving the novel cross-species transmission of their viruses an estimated 4,000 times. Because of their unique dispersal capacity, bats account for the majority of novel viral sharing, and are likely to share viruses along evolutionary pathways that will facilitate future emergence in humans. 

Surprisingly, we find that this ecological transition may already be underway, and holding warming under 2 °C within the century will not reduce future viral sharing. Our findings highlight an urgent need to pair viral surveillance and discovery efforts with biodiversity surveys tracking species’ range shifts, especially in tropical regions that harbor the most zoonoses and are experiencing rapid warming.

DJ, Disease in plants, cattle, wildlife also will "go up" =food production getting a major problem. You need politics that try to protect humanity...not "liberal fools" going for profit !

Study: "We find that liver injury, indicated by a high frequency of abnormal liver function tests, is a common clinical feature of COVID-19 in two independent cohorts of patients with COVID-19 requiring hospitalization.

DJ, limited proof that vaccinations also may see liver problems...[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/hepatitis/preprint-sars-cov-2-vaccination-can-elicit-a-cd8-t-cell-dominant-hepatitis/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/hepatitis/preprint-sars-cov-2-vaccination-can-elicit-a-cd8-t-cell-dominant-hepatitis/ 

[url]https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/investigations/sas-covid-19-death-toll-may-exceed-250-000-as-govt-admits-to-possible-under-reporting-20220330[/url] or https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/investigations/sas-covid-19-death-toll-may-exceed-250-000-as-govt-admits-to-possible-under-reporting-20220330 

If governments "solve problems" by claiming "we have to live with them" we will not survive...Time for change-NOW !!

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 30 2022 at 1:57am

DJ, 

This; 

Replying to 
The CDC report is a "work of art". Their statement = "adenoviral hepatitis" but none of the 9 cases has adenoviral inclusions in liver biopsy ! And of course, no anti-SARS-CoV-2 serology 🤡 and they conclude "SARS-CoV-2 excluded". So according to the CDC, MIS-C don't exist


may be a good description of how a lot of countries deal with the pandemic; "do not test-do not tell"....

Still-even with very limited testing/reporting US cases +18%...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/africa/south-africa/south-africa-ba-4-and-ba-5-increasing-as-a-proportion-of-sequenced-cases/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/africa/south-africa/south-africa-ba-4-and-ba-5-increasing-as-a-proportion-of-sequenced-cases/

An increasing share of South Africa’s Covid-19 cases are the BA.4 and BA.5 sub-lineages of the Omicron variant, suggesting those might have a growth advantage over others, Prof Helen Rees said on Thursday.

Rees added at a World Health Organisation news conference that despite rising Covid-19 infections, SA was so far not seeing a huge increase in mortality or intensive care admissions.

The WHO said earlier that Africa is seeing an uptick in Covid-19 cases largely driven by a doubling in cases reported in SA.

TimesLive.co.za

-

There’s also a new preprint from South Africa researchers at CERI too: “Continued Emergence and Evolution of Omicron in South Africa: New BA.4 and BA.5  lineages”:

“..the continued discovery of genetically diverse Omicron lineages shifts the level of support for hypotheses regarding their origin, from an unsampled location to a discrete reservoir, such as human chronic infections (or even a network of chronic human infections) and/or animal reservoirs, potentially contributing to further evolution and dispersal of the virus. We are actively investigating the potential of a yet unidentified animal reservoir in the region..”

DJ South Africa cases peak every six months...Now +84%...BA.1 does NOT protect against BA.4 or BA.5 !

[url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues may be missing a lot (90%+ ?) of possible sequences due to lack of testing/reporting...if there are no samples to study you will not find new sequences; "so the pandemic is coming to an end"...insanity !

and [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/recombination/japan-new-ba-1-ba-2-recombinant-discovered/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/recombination/japan-new-ba-1-ba-2-recombinant-discovered/

Japanese researchers have detected a new type of the Omicron variant which is a recombination of the BA.1 and more contagious BA.2 strains of the Omicron.

The newly-found sub-variant of the Omicron is different from Omicron’s XE strain which is also a mixture of the BA.1 and BA.2. The XE was first found overseas. In Japan, the XE strain was detected at Narita Airport quarantine last month.

The new sub-variant confirmed by the National Institute of Infectious Diseases is the first discovery inside and outside Japan.

NHK Japan report

DJ Japan cases -6%, deaths -4%

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-german-study-published-in-peer-reviewed-journal-indicates-that-covid-19-shots-can-induce-cd8-t-cell-dominant-hepatitis[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-german-study-published-in-peer-reviewed-journal-indicates-that-covid-19-shots-can-induce-cd8-t-cell-dominant-hepatitis (see also [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/hepatitis/preprint-sars-cov-2-vaccination-can-elicit-a-cd8-t-cell-dominant-hepatitis/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/hepatitis/preprint-sars-cov-2-vaccination-can-elicit-a-cd8-t-cell-dominant-hepatitis/ ). 

DJ Over activity of the immune system doing (limited) damage in sporadic cases. (No liver-transplant needed...still not what you want. In test-trials NO liver problems showed up, so it looks to be rare. So far liver problems when detected showed up 4 days-6 weeks after vaccination. DJ-Does vaccination (either mRNA or other) worsen already existing liver problems ? Maybe in some cases they may-so some better monitoring could be of use.).

For the US ;

Yup, that’s ~85K confirmed cases from 36/50 states

and 

BNO|Medriva Newsroom

@medriva
 · 
U.S. COVID update: Daily cases continue to rise, highest since March 1 - New cases: 84,365 - Average: 58,033 (+1,514) - States reporting: 36/50 - In hospital: 15,866 (+87) - In ICU: 1,855 (-15) - New deaths: 489 - Average: 340 (-45) More data: https://newsnodes.com/us

with BA.2.12.1 on its way to get dominant there...

[url]https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/katiecamero/long-covid?utm_source=dynamic&utm_campaign=bfsharetwitter[/url] or https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/katiecamero/long-covid?utm_source=dynamic&utm_campaign=bfsharetwitter ;Long COVID can be debilitating and occurs in up to 30% of people who have had the coronavirus, but the people experiencing it often find that doctors dismiss, ignore, or downplay their unusual symptoms.

-

When Ferrer and her husband, Nick Güthe, showed the neurologist a video of the tremors, the doctor subtly brought up his own struggles with depression, assuming that’s what was at least partly the reason for her symptoms.


“He’s gaslighting me,’” Güthe recalled his tearful wife telling him when the doctor left the room. He tried to comfort Ferrer, who told him she felt she wasn’t going to improve and that she had no path forward.

The next day, Ferrer killed herself, ending a 13-month struggle with long COVID.


DJ (like "other veterans") HCW-ers with long CoViD may end up in poverty...Governments simply "drop" Long CoViD patients...pushing money to big pharma...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 01 2022 at 12:00am

DJ, 

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/great-news-preliminary-data-shows-that-sars-cov-2-ba-2-12-1-and-ba-4-variants-have-ro-of-15-similar-to-measles-and-also-unique-pathogenesis[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/great-news-preliminary-data-shows-that-sars-cov-2-ba-2-12-1-and-ba-4-variants-have-ro-of-15-similar-to-measles-and-also-unique-pathogenesis  I may not agree with the sarcasm...However so far both BA.2.12.1 and BA.4 (and BA.5 ?) "look bad"...

The article mentions the US for BA.2.12.1-this subvariant is on its way to dominance in the US. [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table weekend numbers has US cases down from +18% to +7%...others come up with higher increase of cases...

South Africa cases +67%, lots of other countries in the region also reporting an increase. Global numbers-just over 580,000 cases reported-may be 5 to 6 times the reported number...

But "insanity based new normal" will bring even less testing and reporting...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/diet/sars-cov-2-may-infect-bacteria-in-the-gut-act-as-a-bacteriophage/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/diet/sars-cov-2-may-infect-bacteria-in-the-gut-act-as-a-bacteriophage/ ;

“SARS-CoV-2 could .. infect bacteria in the gut microbiota, indicating that SARS-CoV-2 could act as a bacteriophage

“Our recent studies show that microorganisms in the human gastrointestinal tract affect the severity of COVID-19 and for the first time provide indications that the virus might replicate in gut bacteria. In order to further support these findings, in the present work, cultures of bacteria from the human microbiome and SARS-CoV-2 were analyzed by electron and fluorescence microscopy. The images presented in this article, in association with the nitrogen (15N) isotope-labeled culture medium experiment, suggest that SARS-CoV-2 could also infect bacteria in the gut microbiota, indicating that SARS-CoV-2 could act as a bacteriophage. “

Preprint: Could SARS-CoV-2 Have Bacteriophage Behavior or Induce the Activity of Other Bacteriophages?

DJ [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bacteriophage[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bacteriophage ;bacteriophage (/bækˈtɪərif/), also known informally as a phage (/ˈf/), is a virus that infects and replicates within bacteria and archaea. The term was derived from "bacteria" and the Greek φαγεῖν (phagein), meaning "to devour". Bacteriophages are composed of proteins that encapsulate a DNA or RNA genome, and may have structures that are either simple or elaborate. Their genomes may encode as few as four genes (e.g. MS2) and as many as hundreds of genes. Phages replicate within the bacterium following the injection of their genome into its cytoplasm.

Is that bad ? From the link;SARS-CoV-2 has become one of the most studied viruses of the last century. It was assumed that the only possible host for these types of viruses was mammalian eukaryotic cells. 

Our recent studies show that microorganisms in the human gastrointestinal tract affect the severity of COVID-19 and for the first time provide indications that the virus might replicate in gut bacteria. 

In order to further support these findings, in the present work, cultures of bacteria from the human microbiome and SARS-CoV-2 were analyzed by electron and fluorescence microscopy. 

The images presented in this article, in association with the nitrogen (15N) isotope-labeled culture medium experiment, suggest that SARS-CoV-2 could also infect bacteria in the gut microbiota, indicating that SARS-CoV-2 could act as a bacteriophage. 

Our results add new knowledge to the understanding of the mechanisms of SARS-CoV-2 infection and fill gaps in the study of the interactions between SARS-CoV-2 and non-mammalian cells. These findings could be useful in suggesting specific new pharmacological solutions to support the vaccination campaign.

DJ "Affect the severity of COVID-19" does not sound like it is making the infection milder...(But again-I am NOT an expert ! Just trying to follow the story !)

Sometimes I wonder if #SARS2 minimizers are: a) dumb to understand HOW #SARS2 can do damage, b) scared to FACE THE REALITY of the #SARS2 damage, c) evil to DEFLECT the attention & OBSCURE the truth for their benefit. They differ whether they're one, two, or all of the above.

and 

There goes another Pfizer miracle for preventing symptomatic #SARS2 infections. Pharmaceutical interventions ALONE will never stop new SARS2 waves. The only question is do we accept being massively reinfected over & over again (& culled a bit) or fight it.

link [url]https://www.wsj.com/articles/pfizers-covid-19-pill-failed-study-testing-its-preventative-use-11651276069[/url] or https://www.wsj.com/articles/pfizers-covid-19-pill-failed-study-testing-its-preventative-use-11651276069 DJ, BA.4 seems to be even spreading in host recently recovering from BA.2 infections...

BA.2.12.1 is the top circulating lineage in the #UnitedStates  It has significant growth advantage over other circulating lineages in #USA  Cov-spectrum predicts a 47% growth advantage over BA.2* (over last three months) Get #Boosted and #MaskUp!


Image
Quote Tweet







Raj Rajnarayanan

@RajlabN
 · 
#COVID19 #VariantDashboard - #UnitedStates  TOP lineages (15-DAY TRENDS): 23.39% BA.2.12.1, <- Spike:L452Q 19.16% BA.2,   14.85% BA.2.9, 12.25% BA.2.10, 10.79% BA.2.12, 9.43% BA.2.3 and   2.33% BA.1.1   Tracker (by State): http://tinyurl.com/mryj4uu7  #OmicronUpdates 04/30/22
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DJ...lots of warnings...but like with climate collapse, nuclear war risks, neo-con dictatorship...not enough people listening...

End of part 1

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 01 2022 at 11:21pm

Limited new info,

Keep it simple for today;

China most likely BA.2.2 and BA.2.3 (and ?) inceasing

India cases +42% 

Southern Africa BA.4 (and BA.5 ?) increasing

US BA.2.12.1 going up...

Some countries report cases going down more then 50%-often meaning a decrease in testing/reporting..

Will Europe see another wave ? Yes-I expect cases to go up later on this month in NL...It may be a new-other subvariant...[url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/596[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/596 ;

As highlighted by @silcn in #499 there are sublineages of BA.2.12 with S:L452Q, circulating mainly in Canada, which seem to be rooted differently from the main Ba.2.12.1 designated from #499 that is characterized by T15009C and C21721T

Here the proposal (Asking @AngieHinrichs @corneliusroemer @chrisruis if they arent just tree building issues, but i dont think so)

First sublineage of BA.2.12, that subsequently acquired S:L452Q, is BA.2.12 + C27654T + C16726T (Orf1b:1087Y)
424sequences (347 from Canada , 70 from Usa)
Covspectrum

Second sublineage of BA.2.12 , that subsequently acquired S:L452Q, is Ba.2.12 + A6107G(orf1a:1948E)
305 Seqs (154 from Canada 138 from USA)

DJ; The L452Q mutation seems to be the "motor' behind cases going up...

[url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=IND[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=IND "BA.2" 69% of India cases, BA.2.23 at 3% pushing up numbers in India ? (Latest info april 20)

Finland had cases going up high speed-but [url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=FIN&dark=true[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=FIN&dark=true april 17 latest info does not help...cases there now -56%...

Maybe more later...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 03 2022 at 12:09am

DJ,

Once this forum was named "Avian Flu Talk' and with good reason-here in NL another bird-flu case has been reported. This year may have seen over a million birds being killed because of high spread of (several types of) "Avian Flu"...the global picture is not any better...resulting in higher prices for eggs-pushing up food prices even further. 

Limited human cases of Avian Flu so far...however "Flu-Rona" reported this year a.o. in Brazil, Israel but also in NL should be a warning. New types of CoViD-with even higher spread-getting "mixed" (due to lower immune protection) with the spread of Avian Flu types do increase the risks for Avian-flu jumping into "non-bird hosts"...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/omicron/ba-2-12-1/usa-ba-2-12-1-has-transmission-advantage-of-25-over-ba-2/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/omicron/ba-2-12-1/usa-ba-2-12-1-has-transmission-advantage-of-25-over-ba-2/

CDC: “BA.2.12.1 might have a transmission advantage of about 25% over the BA.2 sub variant… The BA.2.12.1 sub variant makes up nearly 30% of sequences identified nationally.” 

CDC Director Rochelle Walensky:  “Right now, BA.1 is only about 3% of the sequences identified. We are now more commonly finding the BA.2 Omicron sub variant, which makes up about 68% of circulating virus. More recently, we’re finding the BA.2.12.1 sub variant, which was first identified in upstate New York, and which makes up nearly 30% of sequences identified nationally. We are just starting to learn about the impact of BA 2.12.1.”

“It appears [BA.2.12.1] might have a transmission advantage of about 25% over the BA.2 sub variant. Additional evaluation is currently underway to understand the impact of BA.2.12.1 on vaccine effectiveness.”

CDC: Transcript for CDC Media Telebriefing: Update on COVID-19, 26th April 2022

 

Although BA.2.12.1 has a strong showing in certain areas of the US, it looks like it may be losing some momentum nationally compared to BA.2.9 using Raj Rajnarayanan’s Covid lineage tracker:

-

This Trevor Bedford thread outlines why BA.2.12.1, BA.4 and BA.5 could present a problem going forward:

We're now starting to see the evolution of new potentially impactful sublineages of Omicron with particular focus on mutations at spike residue 452. Here, I'd like to highlight lineages B.2.12.1 in New York, as well as BA.4 and BA.5 in South Africa. 1/17

DJ-Since we almost stopped testing-sequencing may miss most developments...[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table at best may give some indications. The weekend=no reporting=low statistics may be corrected mid-week..But "ignoring the problem" (like used in climate collapse) is the new "normal insanity"...with increasing risks;

AGAIN !!! I am not an expert but I do see a "line" from the global African Swine Fever in 2018-2020 to CoViD-19, starting most likely already in the spring of 2019 in Africa (not in China ! The Wuhan-october military games in 2019 may have seen massive spread...but the origins may have been in southern Africa) with now all kinds of bird flu showing up (it does not have to be the H5N1-type The Chinese H3N8 story should be a warning !!!). 

-Another problem [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/long-covid/netherlands-518-healthcare-workers-sacked-for-having-long-covid/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/long-covid/netherlands-518-healthcare-workers-sacked-for-having-long-covid/

518 Dutch healthcare workers have lost their jobs because they suffer from Long Covid and have been off work sick for two years, the Dutch FNV trade union federation said on Friday.

The public health institute RIVM estimates 238,000 healthcare workers caught coronavirus. Most of the Long Covid reports they have had come from people who work in nursing homes or as home nurses.

Permanent employees are paid at least 70% of their salary for two years if they become unable to work through ill health, although some employers increase this to 100%. After two years, however, they can be sacked and then have to claim invalidity benefit. In some cases that will be half that of their original salary.

Dutchnews.nl report

DJ; There is a shortage of doctors in the public insurance sector; this may delay Long CoViD cases getting "any form of income". NL has a very bad reputation for "not clear diseases" -If they can not find a thing people suffering from ME-CFS, chronic Q-fever, Lyme disease and now Long CoViD end up in poverty-may lose their housing etc...

(DJ-NL has "to many complex laws" and seem to be unable to reforms...the rich did get richer; 2,000 of the NL rich now "own" more then the 10 million NL poor. Spending on the public sector did decrease under right wing governments-resulting in LESS beds in hospital, less HCW-ers...[url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/04/26/netherlands-prepared-covid-19-outbreak-fall-experts[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/04/26/netherlands-prepared-covid-19-outbreak-fall-experts ;With hardly any restrictions in place, the coronavirus seems to have slipped from public consciousness. But the virus is expected to revive in the autumn, and the Netherlands is not prepared, AD reported after speaking to experts. 

DJ I think with many agressive new (sub) variants around NL cases will go up this month-only a cover-up by further decreasing testing may be able to hide this "inconveniant truth"...)

U.S. COVID update: Daily cases at highest level since February, up 22% from last week - New cases: 76,040 - Average: 61,694 (+1,985) - States reporting: 29/50 - In hospital: 16,453 (+147) - In ICU: 1,930 (-1) - New deaths: 324 - Average: 352 (+10) More: https://newsnodes.com/us

DJ Worldometer has US cases +3%....

End of part 1


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 03 2022 at 11:24pm

DJ,

Trying to get some grip on the pandemic story [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table 67 countries reporting an increase of cases, 36 have an increase of reported CoViD deaths-but countries with above 'normal" excess deaths must be much higher. 

India cases +26%, South Africa +22%, Brazil +6%, US +4%, Mexico +1%....may give somewhat of an indication...[url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues also trying to get some grip. Point is that if you simply drop most testing-sequencing will give a much less clear vision of what is happening...

In climate change the idea is to keep temperature rise under 1,5C...so to claim they are doing that maybe "lift the baseline" to 1900-everything before that is "pre-industrial"...If you would use a baseline of 1750-1700 as 'pre-industrial" you end up at a temperature rise far over 2C..."Much to costly for the economy"...

A realistic number of new daily cases would be around 3 million per day...so decrease testing to keep the numbers at 500,000 to 600,000 per day to "save the economy/profits"...insanity...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/hepatitis/france-excludes-sars-cov-2-in-case-definition-file-for-hepatitis-in-kids/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/hepatitis/france-excludes-sars-cov-2-in-case-definition-file-for-hepatitis-in-kids/In a bizarre twist to the hepatitis in children story we covered earlier this week, we have learned that the French Health Department are now specifically excluding SARS-CoV-2 virus infections as a possible cause for hepatitis in the official case definition file.

DJ Policies based on lies only create a bigger disaster...CoViD does damage alover the body-including the liver...If you claim "CoViD does not kill" you may claim lots of extra deaths from organ faillure, hearthproblems, pneumonia...so excess deaths going up-start promoting a "healthier lifestyle" to save profits...

The same insanity as what climate change means for holidaydestinations to avoid the question of global foodshortages per 2030...

My goal in scenario's was to "get a perspective on the pandemic" if possible based on more then just twitter...Insane leaders starting insane wars to steal oil and gas and cover up their own corruption get away with even more lies on this pandemic. That is what selfdestruction looks like....

[url]https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/nose-spray-vaccines-could-quash-covid-virus-variants/[/url] or https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/nose-spray-vaccines-could-quash-covid-virus-variants/ ;

To block infections entirely, scientists want to deliver inoculations to the site where the virus first makes contact: the nose. People could simply spray the vaccines up their nostrils at home, making the preparation much easier to administer. There are eight of these nasal vaccines in clinical development now and three in phase 3 clinical trials, where they are being tested in large groups of people. But making these vaccines has proven to be slow going because of the challenges of creating formulations for this unfamiliar route that are both safe and effective.

DJ I think nasal vaccines are "good news". And yes-it is taking a lot of time...but they maybe could be an answer-if we did not ruin it by going for other, less effective vaccines earlier...Still a bit of good news...

Q: Why can nasal vaccines do? A:“Nasal sprays assemble a separate set of antibodies known as immunoglobulin A (IgA). These populate the spongy mucosal tissues of the nose, mouth and throat, where the COVID-causing coronavirus first lands." #PrimeandSpike

So there is some perspective...even with CoViD now being widespread also in non human hosts. CoViD weakening defenses against other diseases (like "bird flu"). 

[url]https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3086177/coronavirus-uses-same-strategy-hiv-dodge-immune-response-chinese[/url] or https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3086177/coronavirus-uses-same-strategy-hiv-dodge-immune-response-chinese study finds;