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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

Slow news

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Albert View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 12 2007 at 6:08pm
Originally posted by Holliegh Holliegh wrote:

Don't worry, Albert,"END OF DAYS 2008" is acomin' Wink
 
 
Ya-buddy.  End of Days is what this place is all about....  LOL
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 12 2007 at 6:17pm
Remember, flu season is on the way ..... will h5n1 recombine with a normal flu this coming flu season?   I would say, this winter, or never, with regard to it making the jump.    Just my opinion .... 
 
So maybe we will now see if we were on borrowed time, or if we prepped for nothing.   I personally hope that we prepped for nothing and I don't have any regrets.   
 
After next winter, we might start to decrease and eliminate some forum rooms here on AFT.  
 
It's been a Hell of a time ..... 
 
Smile
 
 
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coyote View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote coyote Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 13 2007 at 6:06am
I agree Albert. This is now the 10th year that bf has been going on. I would tend to think that It can't continue to keep going on for such an extended period of time, without it becoming a panflu...My own opinion.
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poultryvet View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote poultryvet Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 16 2007 at 5:29am
Virginia Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza Task Force Situation Report
August 15, 2007



Commercial flocks within 2 miles (3.2K) of the index flock: 5 (These
flocks are part of the 39 flocks in the 6.2 mile radius.)

Number tested negative: 3 (as of 8/9/07)

Number tested positive: 0 Number farms with no birds: 2 (Originally 3 -
one of farms recently placed birds that have been tested)



Commercial flocks within 6.2 miles of the index flock: 42 41 39
(original number revised downward by one due to changes in how premises
were defined for the EMRS, includes commercial flocks in the 2 mile
zone. Second revision downward from subtracting the index flock and one
empty farm.)

First round of testing Number tested negative: 35 34

Number tested positive: 0

Number farms with no birds: 7

Second round of testing Number tested negative: 34 (update for 8/9: 31
up to date on all testing; the 3 currently empty premises were up to
date on testing prior to marketing; enhanced surveillance testing
complete, now under scale down surveillance with the rest of the region)


Number tested positive: 0

Number farms with no birds: 3 (updated 8/9/07)



High risk contacts (association with the index flock): 32 (9 in WV & WV
has been notified)

First round of testing Number tested negative: 31

Number tested positive: 0

Number farms with no birds: 1 (this flock was tested negative prior to
slaughter on 7/9)

Second round of testing Number tested negative: 29 (includes current
empty prems up to date on testing prior to marketing)

Number tested positive: 0

Number farms with no birds: 8

Third round of testing:

Number tested negative: 26 (includes current empty prems up to date on
testing prior to marketing) Number tested positive: 0 Number farms with
no birds: 4 (3 additional empty farms confirmed after this round done)
Fourth round of testing:

Number tested negative: 25 (updated 8/10, enhanced surveillance
testing complete, now under scale down surveillance with the rest of the
region)

Number tested positive: 0

Number farms with no birds: 7



Backyard flocks within 6 miles: 34

Number tested negative: 30

Number tested positive: 0

No second round of testing will be conducted.



Number of AGID tests completed in the Shenandoah Valley poultry
producing

region: 40,336 (As of COB August 12, 2007) Number of Fludetect
completed in the Shenandoah Valley poultry producing

region: 2,604 (As of COB August 12, 2007) Number of PCR completed in
the Shenandoah Valley poultry producing

region: 1044 (As of COB August 12, 2007)



Operations:



The C&D of the suspended fans in House # 9 has been completed. A marshy
area near the same barn has been filled in with rock. Virus isolation
tests from environmental swabs taken 8/7 are pending (normally take
11-12

days.) These test results have to be final before the final walk through
is done, prior to quarantine release.



Enhanced surveillance is completed. Scale down surveillance is ongoing
and will continue through August 31 28, 2007 (revised to reflect the 21
day period for the scale down surveillance rather than the end of the
week).



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote coyote Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 17 2007 at 3:16am
Now it seems like the news on bf this week is slowing down again. I just find it interesting that it gets real busy for a period of time and then it's deathly quiet. Seems like some of these countries maybe only put out the news when and if they want to? I think a lot is being held back..or maybe "no news is good news"..
    
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dlugose Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 28 2007 at 3:37pm
Nice to see the human case rate and death rate declining SIGNIFICANTLY this year.  The year is about 2/3 over, if it continues at this rate this year it will be a big improvement over last year.   Last column here is multiplying 1st 8 months (Jan-Aug) by 1.5:
     2006    07 YTD          07 projected
cases 115 59 88.5
deaths 79 37 55.5
 
Source 2006 and 2007 YTD: WHO
Dlugose RN AAS BA BS Cert. Biotechnology. Respiratory nurse
June 2013: public health nurse volunteer, Asia
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote coyote Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 29 2007 at 3:14am
Comment: This lower death rate may be due to the fact that the people in these countries are now better educated about bf and have become much more informed about how to keep and protect themselves from getting it. By any means ithink that the lower death rate doesn't mean that bf is weakening or going away.. Just my opinion and i hope that i'm wrong.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote turbodunce Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 06 2007 at 8:02pm
Originally posted by coyote coyote wrote:

Comment: This lower death rate may be due to the fact that the people in these countries are now better educated about bf and have become much more informed about how to keep and protect themselves from getting it. By any means ithink that the lower death rate doesn't mean that bf is weakening or going away.. Just my opinion and i hope that i'm wrong.



y   
    
turbo sucks detroit puke
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote johngardner1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 06 2007 at 8:08pm
    
Expect a variation, some days we'll experience more ill, somedays we'll experience less. Remember, this isn't even flu season, that won't start until October. As a healthcare professional I always make sure I get my shots.
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