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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

Suspect H5N1 Patient in Rimouski Quebec Canada?

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    Posted: November 29 2006 at 3:15am
Suspect H5N1 Patient in Rimouski Quebec Canada?
******** Commentary
November 29 2006

******** has received several independent reports of a nine year old boy hospitalized in Rimouski, Quebec. The patient has pneumonia and is in isolation. More information on H5N1 testing on this patient would be useful.

Patients with H5N1 symptoms in this area are cause for concern. In June, four goslings died on a farm on Prince Edward Island. The birds had H5N1 symptoms and died suddenly. One duck was PCR tested and was confirmed to be H5 positive. The size of the insert was withheld and the Canadian National Labs in Winnipeg failed to confirm the confirmed PCR test on Prince Edward Island and failed to isolate the virus, so no mandatory OIE report was filed.

The refusal to disclose the size of the insert is cause for concern. The Qinghai strain of H5N1 has four additional amino acids in its HA cleavage site, so the insert would be 12 BP larger than low path H5N1. This difference should be apparent in the insert generated by the PCR test, but was not disclosed.

The symptoms associated with the fatal infections in the geese strongly suggested that the H5 was from high path H5N1, since waterfowl are generally resistant top low path H5,

Low path H5 has been isolated throughout Canada and the United States. However, these isolates have been from healthy or hunter killed waterfowl. The testing of dead or dying wild birds in the United States has been minimal. Although 35,000 live or hunter killed birds have been tested, less than 1000 dead or dying wild birds in the continental United States, Alaska, and Hawaii have been tested.

In Canada, over 50% of the live birds tested on Prince Edward Island are positive for avian influenza, but only 106 live birds have been tested (54 positive). This rate is twice as high as 2005 when 61/212 were positive. Prince Edward Island also has the highest percentage of avian influenza in dead birds (39/176).

These high levels of avian influenza raise questions about the sensitivity of the serotype and isolation tests. Details on testing in the United States show that the detection and isolation in live birds is low, and there have been no reports of H5N1 in the summary table of the US program.

The low numbers of tested birds in regions that are linked to H5 positive dead farm geese are cause for concern, as is the hospitalized pneumonia patient.

More data on the testing of this patient would be useful.

    
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More data on the testing of this patient would be useful.
 
It sure would!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote fpmagnolia Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 29 2006 at 4:30am
    
Low path H5 has been isolated throughout Canada and the United States. However, these isolates have been from healthy or hunter killed waterfowl. The testing of dead or dying wild birds in the United States has been minimal. Although 35,000 live or hunter killed birds have been tested, less than 1000 dead or dying wild birds in the continental United States, Alaska, and Hawaii have been tested.
---------------------------------------------------------

Good grief!! What is going on? Why are they not testing more dead or dying birds? This makes absolutely no sense to me! I am stepping my prepping up a notch or two after reading this. I pray the little boy is going to be ok. May God have mercy on us all.


LIONS AND TIGERS AND BIRDS. OH MY!!!!
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Is this how it starts.Scarey!!!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote mamasjob Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 29 2006 at 7:07am
    All eyes on Canada....
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Cygnet Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 29 2006 at 7:17am
How close is this to PEI?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cap1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 29 2006 at 7:52am
It appears to be about 300 miles as the birds fly or about 400 driving from PEI. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roxy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 29 2006 at 8:18am
 hi to all, I don't ever ask for a link to the story , but in this case , can you post one , many thanks,  it's too important not to , roxy
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This is awful. If this is H5N1 were screwed. It would be here,and new measurements need to be implemented.. Oh my gosh!
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There is no link on this story yet because niman is the only one who is reporting it.  There is no sense in posting a link to niman's site. 
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cap1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 29 2006 at 8:28am

I think it came from Niman's posting today.  Here is the link:  http://www.********.com/News/11290601/H5N1_Rimouski.html

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Hobby Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 29 2006 at 8:37am
 
 
  I live in Ontario, and this is the first I've heard of H5N1 in Quebec.
Have to keep a closer eye on the news , though I beleive it would not be in the headlines yet.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 29 2006 at 8:46am
 
 
.......................................................................................
 
 
.........................................................................................................
 
relax for now...  H5N1 is not efficiently passing H2H at this time.
 
Although... There has been some earlier action in Rimouski Canada before this....with other influenza strains.  And a history of antiviral meds resistence since the early 1990's... that's a long time.
 
An Immunocompromised 57 yr old man with influenza +..... they were unable to save. 
...................................................................................
 
 

Prolonged Excretion of Amantadine-Resistant Influenza A Virus Quasi Species after Cessation of Antiviral Therapy in an Immunocompromised Patient

Guy Boivin,1,2 Nathalie Goyette,1 and Harold Bernatchez3

1Research Center in Infectious Diseases, Centre Hospitalier de l'Université Laval, 2Department of Medical Biology, Laval University, Sainte-Foy, and 3Centre Hospitalier Régional de Rimouski, Rimouski, Quebec, Canada

Received 25 June 2001; revised 20 September 2001; electronically published 23 January 2002.

Phenotypic and molecular studies were conducted to characterize multiple influenza A isolates recovered from an immunocompromised patient who died of viral and fungal pneumonitis. The recovery of amantadine-resistant isolates was correlated with the detection of 2 drug-resistant M2 variants (codons 27 and 31) in combination with a wild-type virus. The mutant viruses persisted within the viral population in variable proportions >1 month after cessation of antiviral therapy. These results confirm animal studies reported elsewhere regarding the genetic stability of influenza M2 mutants and their potential for transmission in humans.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Containment Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 29 2006 at 8:57am
Our Goverment has recently spent Billions on Birdflu?1.3 Billion. Why? They know why? Something is up,and they know it will wipe out our FINANCIAL MARKETS.... Even Sec.of Health Leavitt recently said he thought this thing could Mutate into a form that WILL affect HUMANS?????It will KILL MILLIONS OF US>> Check out the latest stockpiles of Tamiflu,Relenza,and Tubercin?? WHY??????
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Give us that LINK again please. Yours doesnt work...
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Containment... not to worry....
 
..............................................................................................................
I think we can safely say the World will recover... check the numbers.
 
There may be financial disruptions.  We have had them before.
..............................................................................................................
 
 
Bird flu 'real and substantial' economic threat
AFP

September 17, 2006

SINGAPORE --  A feared bird flu pandemic poses a "real and substantial" financial threat that could wipe as much as $2 trillion off the value of the global economy, a World Bank expert warned Sunday.

A severe avian influenza outbreak among humans could lop more than three percent from world gross domestic product because of its impact on trade and economic activity, said Jim Adams, head of a Bank taskforce on bird flu.

That scenario assumes that one percent of the population, or about 70 million people, would die during the pandemic, according to Bank figures.

"We estimate that this could cost, certainly over $1trillion and perhaps as high as $2 trillion in the worst case scenario. The economic threat remains real and remains substantial," Adams said.

The World Bank warned that over the past year bird flu had "gone global," spreading beyond East Asia to South Asia, Europe, the Middle East and Africa.
.....................................................................................

Iraq war could cost US over $2 trillion, says Nobel prize-winning economist



· Economists say official estimates are far too low
· New calculation takes in dead and injured soldiers


Jamie Wilson in Washington
Saturday January 7, 2006
The Guardian

The real cost to the US of the Iraq war is likely to be between $1 trillion and $2 trillion (£1.1 trillion), up to 10 times more than previously thought, according to a report written by a Nobel prize-winning economist and a Harvard budget expert.

The study, which expanded on traditional estimates by including such costs as lifetime disability and healthcare for troops injured in the conflict as well as the impact on the American economy, concluded that the US government is continuing to underestimate the cost of the war.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roxy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 29 2006 at 9:40am
Containment, stop pushing your agenda, do your self a favor and post your stock pics on the fiancial treads, it's old, roxy
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Mind your own business. Do you own this board looser.......
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edit

 
 
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LOLOuch
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far ,about 2000 km
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Sorry.. Im having a bad day.. Looks like US may have a bad year?
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"Suspect H5N1 Patient in Rimouski Quebec Canada?

November 29 2006 "


It's more likely C.Difficile. I've informed Henry already.
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These is the only story i seen on it so just waiting to see another!But if it is BF we are in a new game all togather!!
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I'd be more concerned about them culling mice, in addition to pigs, cats and dogs in South Korea.
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Does this mean the virus has gone H2H I am not understanding this. The thing I would take from this news is that, it is easier to catch this stuff then we have been lead to believe from birds, unless I am missing something here. Help.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roni3470 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 29 2006 at 10:57am
Hey all - can any of the leaders/reasearcher on here verify anything about this yet??  This is scary!
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Right now - to me - it doesn't mean anything.  There was one report by the niman guy that everyone talks about.  He said that because the child was in the area that H5N1 wild birds were found, he should be tested for bird flu.  I've been looking and can only find an article that says a 9 year old has pneumonia.  Nothing has been confirmed about anything.  Will watch with everyone else to see if more news comes out but I haven't seen any confirmation of anything yet.  I think it sounds a little like crying wolf.  At least I really hope that is the case.
 
Will keep watching
 
GG
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@ 10:52 vstr wrote:

"Does this mean the virus has gone H2H I am not understanding this. The thing I would take from this news is that, it is easier to catch this stuff then we have been lead to believe from birds, unless I am missing something here. Help"

-------------------------

No uncontrolled H2H yet. The virus is still playing in the minor leagues. Actually H5N1 has several kissing cousins, Clade 1, Clade 2, and three Clade 2, sub-clades. Any one of these clades or sub-clades is preparing for it's shot at the major leagues.


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Do you can post some reference???????
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Might start seeing new people here. The news will spread wether it turns out to be a positive case or not.
 
 
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Posted: Today at 10:59am wrote:

Right now - to me - it doesn't mean anything. I've been looking and can only find an article that says a 9 year old has pneumonia. Nothing has been confirmed about anything. Will watch with everyone else to see if more news comes out but I haven't seen any confirmation of anything yet."

------

Google C.Difficile & Quebec, you'll understand.
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relax for now...  H5N1 is not efficiently passing H2H at this time.
 
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If this is H5N1 its H5N1...It would mean something very bad.... It means H5N1 has reached Canada,and soon the USA. As far as catching this from birds.. If it mutated,or Morphed. Which is what DR.WEBSTER believes could happen. It the DNA changes and the virus is easier to catch? Remember this virus wouldnt attach easily to the mouth,or nasal passages. It was a lower respirtory disease that was infecting humansso far. What the worry is that THIS FLU WILL BE AS EASY TO CATCH AS THE COMMON COLD OR FLU. THE H5 THAT HAPPENED IN 1918 WAS AS EASY TO CATCH AS THE COMMON COLD.....In order for this to happen it has to mutate which is a real threat...
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Originally posted by Containment Containment wrote:

If this is H5N1 its H5N1...It would mean something very bad.... It means H5N1 has reached Canada,and soon the USA. As far as catching this from birds.. If it mutated,or Morphed. Which is what DR.WEBSTER believes could happen. It the DNA changes and the virus is easier to catch? Remember this virus wouldnt attach easily to the mouth,or nasal passages. It was a lower respirtory disease that was infecting humans so far. What the worry is that THIS FLU WILL BE AS EASY TO CATCH AS THE COMMON COLD OR FLU. THE H5/H2 THAT HAPPENED IN 1918 WAS AS EASY TO CATCH AS THE COMMON COLD.....In order for this to happen it has to mutate which is a real threat...
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Wow, follow up. Anyone know the name of hospital the patient is in..?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Never2late Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 29 2006 at 11:17am
   The hospital is denying that it has any BF patient and is treating this a hoax.
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this is not True. Is FALSE
http://www.brandonsun.com/story.php?story_id=34185

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Wednesday, Nov 29, 2006
Internet rumours of a human bird flu case in Rimouski exasperate hospital

(CP) - The power of the Internet rumour mill slammed up against a hospital in Rimouski, Que., on Wednesday, leaving infection control specialists and pediatricians bewildered by claims they were treating a child gravely ill with H5N1 avian flu.

Dr. Patrick Dolce, the hospital's head of microbiology, confirms there is no case of H5N1 flu in the hospital.

Dolce says the hospital doesn't even have a pediatric patient suffering from any respiratory illness.

"This is totally untrue. There is no case of respiratory illness in any children right now in the hospital. No cases at all," Dolce said.

He added that when he raised the rumours with a colleague, the infectious disease specialist on duty Wednesday, "she laughed at me."

Several Internet websites on pandemic influenza reported rumours that North America had its first human "bird flu" case in an unlikely spot - Rimouski, a city of about 42,000 people on the St. Lawrence River north of Quebec City.

Hospital administrators, who were initially unaware of the rumours, took some perplexing calls. A concerned man identifying himself as a physician called from Italy to check out the reports.

Dolce says the rumours are entirely untrue.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roni3470 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 29 2006 at 11:26am
It just seems weird to me that without even a sick patient in their hospital that this rumor started....behind every good rumor usually is some form of truth!
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http://www.cbc.ca/cp/health/061129/x11299A.html

Internet rumours of a human bird flu case in Rimouski exasperate hospital

Published: Wednesday, November 29, 2006 | 2:02 PM ET

Canadian Press

(CP) - The power of the Internet rumour mill slammed up against a hospital in Rimouski, Que., on Wednesday, leaving infection control specialists and pediatricians bewildered by claims they were treating a child gravely ill with H5N1 avian flu.

Dr. Patrick Dolce, the hospital's head of microbiology, confirms there is no case of H5N1 flu in the hospital.

Dolce says the hospital doesn't even have a pediatric patient suffering from any respiratory illness.

"This is totally untrue. There is no case of respiratory illness in any children right now in the hospital. No cases at all," Dolce said.

He added that when he raised the rumours with a colleague, the infectious disease specialist on duty Wednesday, "she laughed at me."

Several Internet websites on pandemic influenza reported rumours that North America had its first human "bird flu" case in an unlikely spot - Rimouski, a city of about 42,000 people on the St. Lawrence River north of Quebec City.

Hospital administrators, who were initially unaware of the rumours, took some perplexing calls. A concerned man identifying himself as a physician called from Italy to check out the reports.

Dolce says the rumours are entirely untrue.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Polly Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 29 2006 at 12:13pm
If this is an internet rumor, who gets credit for starting it?
Open your eyes people!
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Here's how they handle questions...
 
 
Question No. 226--
Mr. David Tilson:

    With regard to the H5N1 bird flu, what steps is the government taking to ensure that this country has an adequate early warning and crisis management system in place, as well as a sufficient supply of vaccine available for Canadians?

    (Return tabled)

[Translation]

Hon. Dominic LeBlanc: I ask that all remaining questions be allowed to stand.

    The Speaker: Is that agreed?

    Some hon. members: Agreed.

at...
 

38th PARLIAMENT, 1st SESSION

EDITED HANSARD • NUMBER 157

CONTENTS

Thursday, November 24, 2005


http://www2.parl.gc.ca/HousePublications/Publication.aspx?pub=hansard&mee=157&parl=38&ses=1&language=E&x=1#T1015
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Not sure where it started.... this was the first post...
..........................................................................................................
Suspect H5N1 Patient in Rimouski Quebec Canada?
******** Commentary
November 29 2006

******** has received several independent reports of a nine year old boy hospitalized in Rimouski, Quebec. The patient has pneumonia and is in isolation. More information on H5N1 testing on this patient would be useful.

.......................................

"...More information on H5N1 testing on this patient would be useful...."
 
 
Then it blossomed...
..................................................................................
 
Is this how it starts.Scarey!!!
 
All eyes on Canada....
 
This is awful. If this is H5N1 were screwed. It would be here,and new measurements need to be implemented.. Oh my gosh!
 
If this is H5N1 its H5N1...It would mean something very bad.... It means H5N1 has reached Canada,and soon the USA.
 
This is scary!
 
Good grief!! What is going on?
................................................................................

"If this is an internet rumor, who gets credit for starting it?"


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anharra - have you noticed that original post was pulled and you can't access it now.  GG
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