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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

This year’s flu vaccine was not very successful

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Albert View Drop Down
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    Posted: February 16 2008 at 9:00am

The flu vaccine didn't seem to work well this year.  There are now so many different flu strains floating around, this year's vaccine was virtually useless. I believe it only covered approx. 40% of the strains.   If you factor the amount of people who get sick while standing in line to get the vaccination (by contracting a different strain), it almost could have done more harm than good.

Now having said all of that, the flu vaccine is generally harmless and is safe to use.   It's really just a matter of choice for each person, and if it's worth preventing one strain.   HHS or the CDC need to start being a little more upfront about how effective the flu vaccine really is. 
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote hachiban08 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 16 2008 at 10:48am
I completely agree with you(Y)
Be prepared! It may be time....^_^v
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DANNYKELLEY Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 16 2008 at 1:00pm
There is alot of sick people here in Indiana.All my kids and wife have been sick for about a week now,Yup we all got the shot! Alot of good that did.
WHAT TO DO????
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Penham Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 16 2008 at 5:43pm
I don't think they got the vaccine right this year, it's not getting the right strain, according to all the reports.  There are tons of people here in Oklahoma sick too with the flu. My neighbor has the flu and they started him on Tamiflu, according to his wife he had already been sick for about a week before they started him on it (I didn't tell her it was supposed to be started much sooner). He is so sick he can hardly walk by himself, lots of coughing, fever, chills and aches with it. Their Dr. did start her on Tamiflu too, she is not sick as of yet.  Also, the Health Dept did a thing on the news last night, apparantly we also have Norovirus going around here too.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 4=laro Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 16 2008 at 6:02pm
What is Norovirus?  I had something, started 5 weeks ago and mostly knocked me for a loop, I seem to be mostly over it, some coughing left, but not anything like at first.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Penham Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 16 2008 at 11:15pm

The incubation period for norovirus-associated gastroenteritis in humans is usually between 24 and 48 hours (median in outbreaks 33 to 36 hours), but cases can occur within 12 hours of exposure. Norovirus infection usually presents as acute-onset vomiting, watery non-bloody diarrhea with abdominal cramps, and nausea. Low-grade fever also occasionally occurs, and vomiting is more common in children. Dehydration is the most common complication, especially among the young and elderly, and may require medical attention. Symptoms usually last 24 to 60 hours. Recovery is usually complete and there is no evidence of any serious long-term sequelae. Studies with volunteers given stool filtrates have shown that asymptomatic infection may occur in as many as 30% of infections, although the role of asymptomatic infection in norovirus transmission is not well understood.

I copied this from the CDC website.

 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tadeo Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 17 2008 at 5:19am
My wife, and the two boys and I have not even experienced a sneeze this winter.  The wife and boys have never had a flu shot and I haven't had one in 15 years.  Here in Vegas it's the melting pot of the world and the masses bring all kinds of yuck.  Come to think of it, nobody I know of has experienced any flu this season.
"The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants. It is it's natural manure." -Thomas Jefferson.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 17 2008 at 5:51am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 17 2008 at 8:27am
I think we just pay more attention to cold and flu symptoms these days. The incidence probably isn't much higher - we just notice it more.
    
    
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 17 2008 at 8:31am

On average, the regular flu vaccine usually protects against 70% of the circulating strains.  This 40% is on the lower end, but it's been lower on occasions in the past where it hit around 30% effectivness.  There is just a lot more flu awareness these days so the lower numbers are standing out.  30% - 60% effectivness is not all that uncommon, those are just stats that the CDC doesn't mention all that often.  

 
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 17 2008 at 8:49am

This year's low effectiveness is really coming at a bad time. These unmanaged strains floating around is adding a lot of extra fuel on the fire with regard to giving h5n1 the chance to make the final jump.  Maybe this is natures way of allowing h5n1 to mutate despite the culling?  The Panflu of 2008 seems to still be on track.  Wink

It could almost be the perfect flu storm, with the regular flu now serving as a distraction for a new emerging Panflu strain.    
 
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 17 2008 at 11:33am
Looking at all of the off topic stuff on here at the moment, and the relative lack of flu related postings, I'd say we have a lot of distractions. Remember people - pandemic flu doesn't use the same calendar as seasonal flu so don't drop your guard, and despite what some might say about H5N1 having played itself out - viruses don't have an expiration date. It's still out there.
    
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote coyote Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 20 2008 at 3:53am
I agree Jasksdad! Their has been a lot of "off topic" stuff being posted here. I think it's because their has been so much going on in the news lately.

   I don't have a good feeling about the BF situation. I feel that it will be happening this year. Remember the 1918 panflu? It started in march.

As Albert said, We may have the perfect storm brewing.
    
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ME163D Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 20 2008 at 5:13am
We have a lot of flu cases here in Kansas. Most of them were school aged kids. I have been rotating food and other preps.

I think that this indicates the foolishness of our health authorities. I think the major problem is the lack of competence in the health care sector.


Glad to be back
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Penham Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 20 2008 at 5:42am
Big article on the front page of our local newspaper this morning. Here in Oklahoma there are 3 verified (by testing) types of flu currently going around Type A, Type B and Type A/B.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 21 2008 at 1:56pm
Feds prescribe new recipe for flu shot By LAURAN

NEERGAARD, AP Medical Writer
1 hour, 15 minutes ago

Next year's flu vaccine is getting a complete overhaul to provide protection against three new and different influenza strains — hopefully better protection than this year's version.

Advisers to the Food and Drug Administration unanimously backed the new recipe on Thursday, echoing an earlier decision by the World Health Organization. It's a highly unusual move: Seldom are more than one or two strains swapped out from one year to the next.

Now the question is whether vaccine manufacturers can make such a big change in time to produce more than 100 million doses by the fall.

"It's going to be a really busy spring and summer, and of course we're always looking for fallback positions just in case things don't work out well," said Dr. Nancy Cox, flu director at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. "There's a lot of work that will be going on ... to try and make sure that everything comes together in such a way that there will be plenty of vaccine."

One concern: A strain called Brisbane/10 that's responsible for much of this winter's misery doesn't grow very quickly in the laboratory, potentially complicating already laborious vaccine production.

The flu vaccine must be reformulated every year to keep up with the fast-evolving influenza virus, and this year the government made a rare wrong bet on which strains would cause the most disease. The flu season got off to a slow start, but it rocketed in mid-January as some new strains arrived — and the CDC found the vaccine is a good match for only about 40 percent of the virus now spreading in the U.S.

That Brisbane/10 strain is the big culprit, one first spotted in Australia late last winter, too late for scientists to include in this year's vaccine recipe even if they had predicted it would gain steam.

Flu viruses come in different strains that constantly mutate, until one that few people have immunity against emerges and is able to spread widely. Each year's vaccine contains protection against two varieties of the harsher Type A flu — subtypes known as H1N1 and H3N2 — and one from the more benign Type B family.

CDC and international authorities expect Brisbane/10, a version of the H3N2 flu, to still be around next year. They predict a second new Type A strain, known as H1N1/Brisbane/59, also will hit, along with a newer Type B/Florida strain, prompting Thursday's decision to put all three in next year's vaccine.

It's a gamble based on tracking illness around the globe, and the CDC does have a pretty good record: 16 of the last 19 flu seasons had well-matched vaccines.

Still, "as we always say, influenza is quite unpredictable," Cox cautioned Thursday.

The recipe must be set about eight months before manufacturers start shipping doses because flu vaccine production is so complex. Health authorities come up with seed stocks of the virus strains that manufacturers then must grow in chicken eggs.

Makers of vaccine for the Southern Hemisphere already have added the troublesome Brisbane/10 strain to their own shots, and found it doesn't grow easily. Scientists now are working on a solution to that technical problem, such as using a very similar virus — it's even called "Brisbane/10-like" — found in Uruguay that would provide the same protection, Cox said.

"It's certainly a challenge for all the manufacturers," said Nancy Kavanaugh of Medimmune Inc., which makes a nasal spray flu vaccine, the only non-shot version. "We're working with three new strains. ... There's some unknowns related to those and how they're going to grow."

As for the rest of this winter, the CDC says the current vaccine should provide some protection, perhaps resulting in a milder case of flu than if someone hadn't been inoculated. It's too early to tell if this winter's flu will be more deadly than usual. Every year, the flu infects up to 20 percent of the population, hospitalizes 200,000 people and kills 36,000.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Turboguy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2008 at 6:04am
I'm currently enjoying a nasty case of the flu, and I got a flu shot back in December! I'm so happy I got a flu shot that's utterly useless. Sad thing is that I got my shot from the military, you'd think we'd get the good stuff...

Funny thing is that I called my boss and told him that I could come in if he really wanted me to, but otherwise I'd stay home. He asked me if I got a flu shot, and freaked out when I told him that the vaccine we all got this year is B.S. Anyone know how long the flu is supposed to last? This whole coughing thing is getting monotonous. Crystal Light has fast become one of my best friends! Straight up water got real boring after glass # 20.

I'll tell you what, it came on real fast! I was surprised that it hit me as fast and severely as it did! I'm young and in good shape so it's no big deal, but if this bad boy hit elderly or very young people, I fully expect that it'd kill.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Graywolf Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2008 at 6:15am
My girl is in the middle of it right now!Its real bad all over i hear!Could these be the first wave?? Just asking Smile
Something wicked these way comes!!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote coyote Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2008 at 6:24am
2007-2008 Influenza Season Week 6, ending February 9, 2008

(All data are preliminary and may change as more reports are received.)
Synopsis
During week 6 (February 3 - 9, 2008), influenza activity continued to increase in the United States.

Two thousand one hundred twenty-six (33.3%) specimens tested by U.S. World Health Organization (WHO) and National Respiratory and Enteric Virus Surveillance System (NREVSS) collaborating laboratories were positive for influenza.
The proportion of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza was above the epidemic threshold for the fifth consecutive week.
The proportion of outpatient visits for influenza-like illness (ILI) and acute respiratory illness (ARI) was above national baseline levels. ILI increased in eight of the nine regions compared to week 5, and was above region-specific baselines in all nine regions. The East North Central, East South Central, Mountain, Pacific, West North Central, and West South Central regions reported ARI above their region specific baselines.
Forty-four states reported widespread influenza activity; five states reported regional influenza activity; one state and the District of Columbia reported local influenza activity; and Puerto Rico reported sporadic influenza activity.
National and Regional Summary of Select Surveillance Components Region Data for current week Data cumulative for the season
Sentinel Provider ILI* DoD and VA ARI* % pos. for flu† # jurisdictions reporting regional or widespread activity‡ A (H1) A (H3) A Unsub-typed B Pediatric Deaths
Nation Elevated Elevated 33.3 % 49 of 51 1033 1266 6590 1679 10
New England Elevated Normal 15.2 % 6 of 6 29 12 183 144 0
Mid-Atlantic Elevated Normal 19.2 % 3 of 3 56 16 280 338 2
East North Central Elevated Elevated 47.6 % 5 of 5 90 294 249 143 0
West North Central Elevated Elevated 24.5 % 7 of 7 38 31 652 104 0
South Atlantic Elevated Normal 28.2 % 7 of 9 137 450 1523 295 0
East South Central Elevated Elevated 25.0 % 4 of 4 8 87 22 9 3
West South Central Elevated Elevated 34.8 % 4 of 4 54 196 2925 291 4
Mountain Elevated Elevated 24.7 % 8 of 8 303 132 404 221 0
Pacific Elevated Elevated 17.9 % 5 of 5 318 48 352 134 1


* Elevated means the % of visits for ILI or ARI is at or above the national or region-specific baseline
† National data is for current week; regional data is for the most recent 3 weeks.
‡ Includes all 50 states and the District of Columbia

Laboratory Surveillance
During week 6, WHO and NREVSS laboratories reported 6,382 specimens tested for influenza viruses, 2,126 (33.3%) of which were positive, including 70 influenza A (H1) viruses, 322 influenza A (H3) viruses, 1,356 influenza A viruses that were not subtyped, and 378 influenza B viruses. The District of Columbia and 47 states from all nine surveillance regions have reported laboratory-confirmed influenza this season.

Since September 30, 2007, WHO and NREVSS laboratories have tested a total of 94,502 specimens for influenza viruses and 10,568 (11.2%) were positive. Among the 10,568 influenza viruses, 8,889 (84.1%) were influenza A viruses and 1,679 (15.9%) were influenza B viruses. Two thousand two hundred ninety-nine (25.9%) of the 8,889 influenza A viruses have been subtyped: 1,033 (44.9%) were influenza A (H1) viruses and 1,266 (55.1%) were influenza A (H3) viruses.

Although influenza A (H1) viruses predominated through mid-January, an increasing proportion of subtyped influenza A viruses are influenza A (H3) viruses. Influenza A (H3) viruses were reported more frequently than influenza A (H1) viruses during January 20–February 9. During week 6, influenza A (H3) became the predominant virus for the season overall. This season influenza A (H3) viruses have been reported more frequently than A (H1) viruses nationally, as well as in four of the nine surveillance regions (East North Central, East South Central, South Atlantic, and West South Central).

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2008 at 6:25am
I've been lucky so far.  Everybody around me seems to have gotten sick at least twice this winter and I seem to have dodged it.  I didn't get the flu shot this year nor have I gotten the flu.
 
Remember, people can't get the flu by getting the flu vaccination, but they can catch it while waiting at the doctor's office to get the shot.   From the people around you at the clinic, to the nurse giving the shot, you actually have a pretty good chance of getting sick while going through the process of getting the vaccination.  It also takes two weeks for the vax to be effective after you get it. 
 
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote coyote Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2008 at 6:30am
Except for 5 states,This years flu is widespread through the whole country. So far I haven't been sick either. I did get the flu shot. Been using a lot of Purell and taking elderberry extract. Trying to avoid people..As hard as that may seem.
    
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2008 at 6:36am
Originally posted by Graywolf Graywolf wrote:

My girl is in the middle of it right now!Its real bad all over i hear!Could these be the first wave?? Just asking Smile
 
This is not wave one, although, with the vax being ineffective, we could come close to a Category 1 Panflu.   
 
This would undoubtedly be the worst time for an avian flu virus to make the jump. Some people have been saying over the last couple of months that the panflu threat has ended.   I hate it when people start saying those things at the wrong time.   I can be superstitious when it comes to playing the odds, lol.  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote coyote Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2008 at 7:03am
Turboguys comment; Anyone know how long the flu is supposed to last?


hopefully no longer than 3 days! If it lasts longer than
that,you could get dreaded TFID. Good Luck!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Turboguy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2008 at 7:09am
What's TFID?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote coyote Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2008 at 7:18am
Trigger Finger Impotence Disease!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Turboguy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2008 at 12:16pm
Bahaha I was just shooting a few days ago, I should be okay for a few days.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2008 at 9:36pm
Started with the flu today - this one has gone from a tickle in my throat this afternoon to full symptoms this evening
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Turboguy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2008 at 7:53am
Sucks arse doesn't it Jacksdad...

I'm just now starting to feel signficantly better, though I've still got the stuffy nose situation. It keeps doing that weird thing where one nostril is plugged, then is switches over... Very annoying.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote coyote Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2008 at 11:09am
Flu Kills 22 Children in Broad Epidemic BRIEFLY: WASHINGTON

Posted on: Sunday, 24 February 2008, 12:00 CST
http://www.redorbit.com/news/health/...ource=r_health

Influenza is widespread in 49 states, and this year's epidemic has killed at least 22 children, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported Friday.
The Food and Drug Administration agreed Thursday to completely change next year's flu vaccine mix because all three strains included in the flu shot cocktail have mutated. But companies have a head start on working with two of the three, said Dr. Nancy Cox of the CDC.

FDA advisers agreed with the World Health Organization recommendations made last week on changing the vaccine to match the drifting flu viruses.
Originally published by Reuters.
(c) 2008 International Herald Tribune. Provided by ProQuest Information and Learning. All rights Reserved.


Source: International Herald Tribune
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