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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

Tracking Avian Where There Are No Roads
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 28 2006 at 7:33am
I haven't been to Salem in years, just hoping to plan a trip one day. Would love to see the House of Seven Gables again. BTW, I have sent off the final preparedness copy and it is making it's way all over MA with my relatives. The seniors in my dad's family love to email eachother.
 
Note: I am curious -- has anyone else noticed a sudden dry spell in news coming out of the U.S. with regard to Avian? It seems to have suddenly slowed.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 28 2006 at 8:05am
I am seeing (-) single strand virus cases exploding everywhere! This to me is leading somewhere. Why are all these diseases doing this? Hanta, measles, rabies, mumps last year, vesicular stomatitis, rabies, influenzas, hepatitis. Why, why, why is there this pattern? Is it because ebola and marburg were weaponized by the Russians and this pulled a trigger of some sort, or something naturally occuring? 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 28 2006 at 10:01am
"The way you win a war is by letting the enemy die for his country..."

Mach, you are right, and the flipside is true - letting evil win by allowing the enemy to slaughter you willingly is the way to lose a war. 

Why give them the pleasure of achieving their goal of ridding the world of Christians?

 I wouldn't be surprised if these terrorists have tick marks on the wall for each Christian down .. .

Thanks everybody here for continuing with this, interesting reading.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 28 2006 at 10:02am
The movie "Inconvienient Truth" which is like a documentary on global warming, talks about all kinds of problems liked to global warming, some of them being more diseases caused by more insects. It is a great movie and I think it is directly related to some of the issues we see happening in the world. I highly recommend people see this movie to see what kinds of changes scientists expect now and in the near future. A must see as far as I'm concerned.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 28 2006 at 6:10pm

Thanks again, SF.  I am sure we will meet again.  I always look for your posts.
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Medclinician, I read your original post this morning and only just now I have a little time to post. A most interesting thread here. It looks like it got a little off topic but it worked out good and a good read anyway. You said so much in your post Med, I don't exactly know how to respond right now, but I enjoyed it, I'm thankful we have you and you made me think.  You're so right. I've seen so many reports on Avian written by reporters who get the facts wrong or mixed up. I've seen so many official statements that are worded in ways to make sure the populace feels good and safe, even when there is evidence to the contrary. Are we conspiracy theorists? I have to laugh on that notion, and yet there are many out there that think that is exactly what we are. It seems to me that after spending much time sifting through reports, articles and reading blogs a picture begins to emerge. It's like the heavy stuff (the truth) is weightier and settles and then a picture begins to form and then one begins to see and understand. It takes time and it can be confusing and sometimes scary at first, but for myself, I would rather see what is really going on, than sit placidly and be spoon fed pre-digested news that may or may not be the truth.
Med- thanks for always being so eloquent, your posts are always appreciated. Clap Maybe some of your eloquence will rub off on me someday and I'll stop being such a choppy writer, or maybe not, lol. LOL
 
 
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Originally posted by standingfirm standingfirm wrote:

I am seeing (-) single strand virus cases exploding everywhere! This to me is leading somewhere. Why are all these diseases doing this? Hanta, measles, rabies, mumps last year, vesicular stomatitis, rabies, influenzas, hepatitis. Why, why, why is there this pattern? Is it because ebola and marburg were weaponized by the Russians and this pulled a trigger of some sort, or something naturally occuring? 
 
Found this while doing an Africa goggle
 

Remembering 'Forgotten' Diseases

Remembering 'Forgotten' Diseases

A child receives a polio vaccination in Ethiopia. (WHO)

August 31, 2006
Prepared by:

New epidemics such as avian flu and Severe Acute Respiratory System have captured media attention in recent years, but more familiar infectious diseases continue to persevere and, in some cases, resurge. Take the case of polio, targeted for eradication by the largest public health initiative in history. When the campaign began in 1988, more than a thousand children a day were infected by the disease. By 2003 the case count had dropped to fewer than 800 a year. But the incidence of polio has been slowly increasing, with over 1,000 cases reported so far this year. More than 200 cases have been reported in India, up from sixty-six last year, and there are concerns the disease may go global after the Indian strain showed up in Nepal, Bangladesh, Angola, Namibia, and Congo (IHT).

Yet the incidence of polio—and, for that matter, bird flu—is relatively low compared to other infectious diseases. Tuberculosis cases, on the rise since the 1980s, are experiencing their fastest growth in Southeast Asia, but a majority of the 15 million people infected live in Sub-Saharan Africa. New drug-resistant forms of the disease are cropping up in South Africa, primarily among AIDS patients, for whom tuberculosis is the leading cause of death (ABC). This Open Society Institute report examines the lethal interaction between tuberculosis and HIV in five developing nations, and calls on governments to coordinate TB/HIV campaigns.

Sub-Saharan Africa has also born the brunt of the malaria epidemic, where over 70 percent of businesses are affected by the disease, reports the World Economic Forum (PDF). The continuing virulence of the disease, which kills more than a million people a year, has prompted the World Health Organization (WHO) to launch an eradication campaign that promotes spraying the controversial chemical DDT, banned in the United States since 1972, in homes in developing nations (Baltimore Sun).

Although diseases such as malaria and tuberculosis have been overlooked because they are largely endemic to the developing world, there are signs they are gaining renewed attention from industrialized nations, says Tina Rosenberg in this New York Times editorial. Large organizations spearhead global health campaigns targeting these diseases, as demonstrated by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation's recent donation of $500 million to The Global Fund to Fight Aids, Tuberculosis, and Malaria. And Russia—where tuberculosis cases have doubled to more than 110,000 in the past fifteen years—put infectious diseases on the agenda at the recent G8 Summit in St. Petersburg. Although G8 members touted their commitment to encourage financial support for programs like the Global Fund, they lack consensus about how funds will be raised. But even when financial support exists, misgivings about Western vaccines and medicines can obstruct prevention and treatment. This essay in The American Interest by CFR Senior Fellow Laurie Garrett and CFR Research Associate Scott Rosenstein explains how rumors in Nigeria about the evil effects of vaccines, along with mistrust of the WHO and the U.S. government, resulted in a polio outbreak.

 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 01 2006 at 9:51am
Originally posted by standingfirm standingfirm wrote:

I am seeing (-) single strand virus cases exploding everywhere! This to me is leading somewhere. Why are all these diseases doing this? Hanta, measles, rabies, mumps last year, vesicular stomatitis, rabies, influenzas, hepatitis. Why, why, why is there this pattern? Is it because ebola and marburg were weaponized by the Russians and this pulled a trigger of some sort, or something naturally occuring? 
 
August 21/8/2006    400 people affected ...... now 553 .
 
PRISTINA, Serbia (UPI) -- Physicians in the Serbia province of Kosovo have registered 553 cases of meningitis since an epidemic began July 1.

The Kosovo national health institute in Pristina said 123 new cases of meningitis were registered over the past week, raising the number of people infected with the disease to 553, Belgrade`s Beta news agency reported Wednesday.

Drinking water contaminated with waste is the main cause of meningitis outbreaks in the predominantly ethnic-Albanian province of Kosovo.

Ilir Begolli, director of the health institute, said the number of new cases has been decreasing but not at a satisfactory pace, the agency said. He said about 90 patients stricken with meningitis are in Pristina`s clinical center.

The epidemic, which is spreading mainly among children, is under control and hospitals in Kosovo are well-equipped with doctors, equipment and medicine, Begolli said.

Copyright 2006 by United Press International

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 01 2006 at 10:20am
I thought meningitis was a occasionally a reactionary response. What is the epidemic of? "553 cases of meningitis since an epidemic began..." is the epidemic meningitis or it the meningitis a response to what is causing an epidemic?

http://www.kidshealth.org/parent/infections/lung/meningitis.html

Meningitis is an inflammation of the meninges, the membranes that cover the brain and spinal cord. The inflammation is usually caused by bacteria or viruses (viral meningitis is also called aseptic meningitis). Less common causes include fungi, protozoa, and other parasites. Sometimes certain medications, cancers, or other diseases can inflame the meninges, although such noninfectious cases of meningitis are much rarer.

Many of the bacteria or viruses that can cause meningitis are fairly common and are more often associated with other everyday illnesses. Sometimes, however, they spread to the meninges from an infection in another part of the body. The infection can start anywhere, including in the skin, gastrointestinal tract, or urinary system, but the most common source is the respiratory tract. From there the microorganisms can enter the bloodstream, travel through the body, and enter the central nervous system. In some cases of bacterial meningitis, the bacteria spread directly to the meninges from a severe nearby infection, such as a serious ear infection (otitis media) or nasal sinus infection (sinusitis). Bacteria may also enter the central nervous system after severe head trauma or head surgery.
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Health Experts To Meet Over New, Deadly TB Strain
Free Internet Press - 0 KB- Found: 2 hours ago
Health experts are to hold an emergency meeting in Johannesburg, South Africa, this week, following the discovery of a deadly new strain of tuberculosis. The strain - known as extreme drug-resistant TB - has horrified World Health Organization (WHO) doctors. In one outbreak in South Africa, 52 of 53 patients died within weeks of becoming infected. "This new strain leaves us facing a nightmare,"

This TB strain only takes a week to kill a patient .......
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 03 2006 at 6:41am
Ok, now this one takes the cake. Anyone else realizing that there is an ominous pattern here?


Is this a pattern found in nature?


Is this what happens when you have nations of people who desire to bring on the destruction of mankind?
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Is there no known cure for this?
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DAILY CHECK-UP

DRUG-RESISTANT TB IN AFRICA WORRIES WHO

LONDON - A deadly new strain of tuberculosis has killed 52 of 53 people infected in the past year in South Africa, the World Health Organization said Friday, calling for improved measures to treat and diagnose the bacteria.

The strain was discovered in the Kwazulu-Natal region of South Africa and is classified as extremely drug-resistant. Drugs from two of the six second-line medicines, used as a last line of defense against TB, proved ineffective against the new strain.

"We are extremely worried about the issue of extreme drug resistance," said Paul Nunn, coordinator of the WHO's drug resistance department. "If countries don't have the diagnostic capacity to find these patients, they will die without proper treatment."

Though even the most drug-resistant strains of TB have proven to be treatable with three classes of drugs, those drugs are more expensive and are toxic to the human body.

The WHO and its partners, including the South African Medical Research Council and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, planned a two-day meeting next week in South Africa to discuss the new TB strain in Africa and better ways to diagnose and treat it, Nunn said.

Tuberculosis is a respiratory illness spread by coughing and sneezing. Nearly 2 billion people worldwide are thought to be latently infected.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 03 2006 at 8:32am
"extreme drug-resistant TB"

argyll, the things that we uncover here are becoming quite nasty. How are you doing? There are fewer people around. This could be because of the holiday and it could be some more denial. I think that the danger with this war that we are fighting in argyll is that people are taking a while to process hearing the shots.

How many times do you go in a grocery store and still see the free samples out and people taking them? People are totally not comprehending this because those little people like us in the public who are trying to communicate this problem are increasingly losing credibility. The government and the media are not matching the people on the forums working to prepare people stride for stride.

Funny how sometimes the thing you feared most growing up becomes your reality in later life. I was always afraid of being the nut with the placard that states "the end is near". Well, my statement is different but I still have the placard and I am feeling mighty exposed. Even my Christian friends have been lulled to sleep.

Medclinician: I care but I am starting to feel totally ineffective and inadequate in my ability to pour out that love and caring on those who I can reach. I am not discouraged but waiting for guidance. He will provide.

Count the costs for when you have a true idea of the cost and you break though to go forward there is no desire to turn back.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 03 2006 at 8:54am
Standingfirm,
 
I do feel a lot of what is being whispered is falling on deaf ears. This is merely due to lack of media exposure. I have not seen anything with regard to Maryland or Pennsylvania in my local paper yet. Has it hit the mainstream newspapers and TV media? One can only grow concerened when this is not being reported. But, alas we know why -- the risk communicators have given predictions and we know the costs. We are all connected -- if one domino falls, we all fall. "Chain we go together ..." in the words of Fleetwood Mac.
 
Every time I send off a link to the brochure = I multiply it by 10. I hope that the 400+ I have sent will have a pyramid affect. I hope people save and print these brochures. They could profoundly help people later on. Those recipients may not think "pandemic influenza" is important now, but later when it rears it's ugly head -- I hope they will have saved the file and will them send off. Anything is better than nothing -- it may be a little late to educate, but then again it might be "JUST-IN-TIME"" to help save a life ...
 
I am happy to help eduate, and often wonder if I have located one the important "purposes" in my life. Guess I'll find out down the road ...
 
Moran Taing (Many thanks in Gaelic)
 
Argyll.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 03 2006 at 9:27am
argyll, strange how life comes together sometimes isn't it?
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As a sat preparing my list of what to buy at the store today, it occured to me -- dead on --why the media's "flood the zones" is not taking place.

 If major announcements are made too soon  in advance of Pandemic Influenza -- jobs may be lost, people will lose income and will not be able to supply the basic necessities of daily life -- due to lack of income. It is a razor thin call for those in charge. So, their quiet prompts -- I think -- are really quite loud if we look at the bigger picture. While I may be "in the know" I feel it important to share as much as I can -- on a level people can understand and tolerate. Brochures and leaflets are a quiet promt that hold a lot of power.
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And they are coming from a non-governmental source so they are informative yet not something that will cause people to quit their jobs.


Yes argyll, I believe you heard the call on this one. You are amazing and you have done a great job here in waking us up to this need.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 03 2006 at 10:44am
 
Burma today ranks as one of 22 countries that account for 80% of the world’s new cases, (HIV/AIDS) with about 97,000 new cases diagnosed each year. Overall, about 40% of Burma’s population is

estimated to be infected with TB and WHO estimates that 6.8% of TB patients in Burma have HIV. Among patients with living HIV infection, 60-80% also have TB, making this the most

common AIDS associated infection. Burma has the highest mortality rate amongst TB patients co-infected with HIV in Southeast Asia, at 2.8 per 100,000 population
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This looks like a chronic problem that may become acute but for right now I don't feel an immediacy that I do with the other diseases that we have been following so closely. Very dangerous though and this could explode too but this problem has been slowly growing for a few years now.

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TB is caused by Mycobacterium Tuberculosis. "It is a small, rod-like bacillus that can withstand weak disenfectants and can survive in a dry state for weeks but can grow only within a host organism." It is the number one killer worldwide and humans are the only host, from what I have read so far.

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) is the number one infectious disease killer worldwide. The World Health Organization estimates that 2 billion people have latent TB, while another 3 million people worldwide die each year due to TB.

On average, the isoniazid (INH) resistance rate is approximately 10% and the rifampin resistance rate is approximately 1%, with lower numbers in countries with good TB programs and higher numbers in countries with poor TB programs.

Pathophysiology: Humans are the only known reservoir for Mycobacterium tuberculosis. TB is transmitted by airborne droplet nuclei, which may contain fewer than 10 bacilli. Exposure to TB occurs by sharing common airspace with a patient who is infectious. When inhaled, droplet nuclei are deposited within the terminal airspaces of the lung. Upon encountering the bacilli, macrophages ingest and transport the bacteria to regional lymph nodes.

The bacilli have 4 potential fates: (1) they may be killed by the immune system, (2) they may multiply and cause primary TB, (3) they may become dormant and remain asymptomatic, or (4) they may proliferate after a latency period (reactivation disease). Reactivation disease may occur following either (2) or (3) above.

Frequency:

Mortality/Morbidity: The case-fatality rate for TB was 50% for untreated patients before the advent of antibiotic therapy. Deaths worldwide are estimated at 3 million per year. In the United States, the mortality rate dropped from 12.4 deaths per 100,000 population in 1953 to 0.6 deaths per 100,000 population in 1993; this is approximately 7% per newly identified case.

Race: Based on 1990 CDC data, case rates were 10 times higher for Asians and Pacific Islanders; 8 times higher for non-Hispanic blacks; and 5 times higher for Hispanics, Native Americans, and Native Alaskans, as compared to non-Hispanic whites. However, race may not be an independent risk factor. Risk is best defined on the basis of social, economic, and medical factors.

Sex: Despite the fact that TB rates have declined in both sexes in the United States, certain differences exist. TB rates in women decline with age, but in men, rates increase with age. Men are more likely to have a positive tuberculin skin test result. The reason for these differences may be social rather than biological in nature.

Age: In the 1997 CDC data for the United States, more than 60% of cases occurred in persons aged 25-64 years. The age-specific risk was highest in persons older than 65 years. Infection in infants and young children (up to 5 y) always indicates recent transmission. If left untreated, it may result in life-threatening meningitis or disseminated disease. Elderly patients may not have typical signs and symptoms of infection because they may not mount a good immune response. In elderly patients, an active tuberculous infection may manifest as a nonresolving pneumonitis.

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The Ticking TB Timebomb
Complicating the TB epidemic is the rising tide of multi-drug- resistant strains or MDR-TB. MDR-TB, which is lethal when untreated, can break out in London or Lima, since its cause - interrupted, erratic or inadequate therapy – can happen anywhere. Up to four percent of all cases worldwide are considered multi-drug resistant - those resistant to the most effective drugs of the four-drug standard, isoniazid and rifampin.

Often a few months into a cumbersome and lengthy treatment process, patients feel better and may stop treatment altogether. Unfortunately, more than two- thirds of TB patients do not receive full and proper treatment, further fueling the spread of deadly multi-drug resistant strains (MDR-TB) have emerged. Other factors that contribute to MDR-TB’s spread include improper use of antibiotics, inadequate public health systems, poor quality "counterfeit" drugs and defaulting on treatment.

Challenges to Treating MDR-TB
The costs of curing MDR-TB are staggering – up to 1400 times the cost of regular treatment. Since MDR-TB can not be adequately treated through the standard short-course therapy, treatment entails up to 2 years of treatment with "second line" drugs. These are often toxic and ineffective since no new drug has been introduced in some 40 years. Many MDR-TB cases defy a cure.

In the absence of an effective therapy, infectious MDR-TB patients will continue to spread the disease, producing new infections with MDR-TB strains. Until we introduce a new drug with demonstrated activity against MDR strains, this aspect of the TB epidemic could begin to explode at an exponential level.

Moreover, MDR-TB and HIV might present an even larger problem, because research findings suggest HIV co-infection could increase the proportion of cases that are resistant.



A Global Problem
Epidemics of MDR-TB can spread quickly from city to city, country to country and even bridging continents. A survey in 72 countries suggested that the MDR-TB problem is more widespread than previously thought and likely is worsening. In some TB hot spots, at least 20 percent of all registered TB cases were due to MDR-TB. Some have estimated that between 185,000 and 415,000 new cases of MDR-TB will develop every year.

The complete magnitude of the global MDR-TB problem is unclear since only half of the countries with highest levels of TB cases have relevant data, and many national TB programs do not have the resources to screen all TB cases for resistance. Yet we do know where MDR-TB appears to be particularly serious.

Hotspots From Lima to London
While MDR-TB afflicts countries with poor health infrastructure, MDR-TB is just as likely to break out in industrialized economies. During the late 1980s and early 1990s outbreaks of MDR-TB in North America and Europe killed over 80% of those who contracted it. The major TB outbreak in New York in the early 1990s was primarily a MDR-TB epidemic, with one in ten cases being drug-resistant.

Another unlikely hot-spot is the Russian Federation, where MDR-TB has spread like wildfire, particularly in prisons. One-third of Russia’s TB population is in prison, and of 24% of those have MDR-TB. In parts of Eastern Europe, nearly half of all TB cases resist at least one first-line drug.

Other areas where MDR-TB is a serious problem include Estonia, Latvia, and China’s Henan Province. MDR-TB strains also are appearing in significant numbers in Mexico; cases also appear to be increasing in Denmark and Germany.

To Learn More about MDR-TB
-  UN Wire, May 2, 2001, "Tuberculosis: Drug-Resistant Strains Pose Global Threat, WHO Says"
-  Anti-Tuberculosis Drug Resistance in the World: Report No. 2, Prevalence and Trends, prepared by the WHO/IUATLD Global Project on Anti-Tuberculosis Drug Resistance Surveillance.
-  "Erasing the World’s Slow Stain: Strategies to Beat Multidrug Resistant Tuberculosis" Science Magazine 15 March 2002

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 03 2006 at 11:04am
Wenmalon: I am sure we will meet someday and I always look forward to your thoughts and opinions. Hope you are having a wonderful weekend.
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Originally posted by Candles...

"...but more familiar infectious diseases continue to persevere and, in some cases, resurge. Take the case of polio, targeted for eradication..."

 .................................................................................................................
Full Story...http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/30/AR2006073000580.html?sub=new
 
 
 
FIVE YEARS LATER : Microbes Made From Scratch
Custom-Built Pathogens Raise Bioterror Fears

By Joby Warrick
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, July 31, 2006; Page A01

STONY BROOK, N.Y.

Eckard Wimmer knows of a shortcut terrorists could someday use to get their hands on the lethal viruses that cause Ebola and smallpox. He knows it exceptionally well, because he discovered it himself.

In 2002, the German-born molecular geneticist startled the scientific world by creating the first live, fully artificial virus in the lab. It was a variation of the bug that causes polio, yet different from any virus known to nature. And Wimmer built it from scratch.

......................................................................................
 
UNICEF Image
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 03 2006 at 3:48pm
My wish and my prayer is that all people everywhere will be educated to the ills of pandemic influenza. What I would love most is to bank roll an account and print out a gazillion brochures. That way I could pass them in print to some large organizations. That could really get the ball rolling.
 
Or perhaps the New York Times ( I emailed a lot of reporters over there) will pick up the story and print a copy of the brochures for the masses. That could have quite an impact. I feel confident -- when the time is right -- and that is key to releasing the information -- that they will print the story. Major media could be instrumental in pointing citizens in the right direction. It would give all people confidence in an uncertain time. People will be looking for direction -- and you can give it to them.
 
So, reporters if you are listening -- we have a great resource for you. For the people by the people. We are the people and we need you to sound the bell when the day arrives. It will be the story of a lifetime -- saving lives.
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