UK NHS breaking down

Dr Emily Ball

@Yemso

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Dec 29

Well it's all broken. There's nowhere to go. Hospitals at capacity, Primary Care (GP) at capacity, NHS 111 at capacity. Where are our leaders? Where is the communication to the public about what they can expect? Where are the mitigations? Nowhere. They're leaving us to die.

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Dr Dan Goyal

@danielgoyal

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10h

With strikes exposing this govt’s wilful destruction of workers rights; the health crisis exposing their ruthless plans to kill the NHS; coal mines and sewage exposing their disregard for the country, I can only conclude they have resigned their party to defeat.

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NHS screenshots We are sharing these screenshots of messages which were sent by a leader of an Integrated Care System, because we are desperately concerned for patient and staff well-being. We considered taking them to a journalist, but we are fed up of seeing reporting..

DJ,,,embedded, billionairse owned "free press" rather blame China lifting Zero CoViD...UK "conservatives" (or are they just neo-fascists in disguise ?) rather import HCW-ers then raise their income...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-while-the-world-is-concerned-about-china-s-covid-19-situation,-no-media-is-reporting-about-uk-s-covid-crisis-and-the-collapse-of-the-nhs[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-while-the-world-is-concerned-about-china-s-covid-19-situation,-no-media-is-reporting-about-uk-s-covid-crisis-and-the-collapse-of-the-nhs 

DJ; [url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/12/lack-of-good-analyses-contributes-to-the-decline-of-the-west.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/12/lack-of-good-analyses-contributes-to-the-decline-of-the-west.html ;

My feel this year was that political, economical and military issues discussed in the main stream media have parted from the objective reality more than they have done at any previous time in my life. I sometimes look into a mirror and think 'well, maybe its just you.' But it is not just me. Other analysts have come to similar conclusion. But, like me, neither of them gets quoted in main stream media and neither is paid in a traditional sense to publish on these issues.

Which, thinking of it, may well be the root of this theme.

and

Russia no longer had a low level economy. Yes, its GDP in dollar terms was much lower than those of most European states. But its GDP per capita measured at purchase power of the ruble was quite high. Russia's GDP also includes a much higher percentage of real production and a lower percentage of dubious 'services'. Its health care sector is 5.6% of its GDP. In the U.S. it is 16.7%, without creating a much better outcome. 

(giving room for extreme incomes, profits on healthcare does not give better healthcare...) DJ, others described the US and UK as ; 

bad politics...tax a dirty word....simply ignoring basic lessons from history...repeating 19th century mistakes...

Prof. Christina Pagel 

@chrischirp

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21h

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XBB.1.5 has come to prominence this week as it surges in New York. 

 has summarised the evidence on it here https://erictopol.substack.com/p/a-new-variant-alert… I've seen less on CH.1.1 but apparently it has recently acquired a new mutation  n:t135i  which might accelerate its growth. 2/3

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Unclear what it means for UK in January/February, but certainly the virus isn't sitting still. Also, we have plenty of emerging variants and could be trying to reduce transmission without invoking what is currently happening in China!. 3/3

DJ, with very limited testing/reporting end of december we may be in for "surprises"....

[url]https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jan/06/patients-dying-nhs-hospital-corridors-avoidable-deaths?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other[/url] or https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jan/06/patients-dying-nhs-hospital-corridors-avoidable-deaths?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other ;

Be under no illusion: the hundreds of avoidable deaths in the NHS every week are the result of political decisions

• Rachel Clarke is a palliative care doctor

DJ, why not call UK conservatives responsible for this murderers ? 

Prof. Christina Pagel 

@chrischirp

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3h

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Prof. Christina Pagel 

@chrischirp

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3h

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Prof. Christina Pagel 

@chrischirp

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DJ...Why do people accept this ? Also here in NL we are moving towards a crisis ...politics stop reporting statistics as an answer...

[url]https://www.independentsage.org/statement-on-covid-19-management-in-light-of-pandemic-increase-in-china/[/url] or https://www.independentsage.org/statement-on-covid-19-management-in-light-of-pandemic-increase-in-china/ ;

The UK Government introduced two precautionary measures in early January 2023, in response to the step-change observed in the Chinese epidemic. First, people travelling directly from China will be required to show a negative test result before boarding their flight. Second, a sample of travellers from China will be tested on entry to the UK and any SARS-CoV-2 lineages will be genetically sequenced to identify new variants. However, passengers arriving and testing positive will not be obliged to self-isolate.

Independent SAGE has the following comments on this approach:

1. Requiring negative COVID-19 tests on direct entry from China is unlikely to make any material difference to the number of cases in the UK. This is because the UK is doing little to control transmission internally, and large numbers of infections presumably arrive from other countries (and equally, spread from the UK to other countries). When attempted in the past, even with a much wider range of countries, this policy has not been effective in keeping prevalence low – this has only worked when implemented as part of a comprehensive quarantine policy.
2. Testing and genetic sequencing of a proportion of international arrivals makes sense, but only if carried out regardless of the origin of travellers and not just China. Genetic surveillance and the sharing of SARS-CoV2 sequence data varies considerably between countries, with China currently being one providing the least data. Variants can arise anywhere, including the UK.
3. Surveillance and identification of new variants is helpful only to the extent that action is taken to reduce ensuing transmission within countries where they are introduced.

From the UK perspective, the NHS is already under unprecedented systemic pressure, exacerbated by both COVID and other winter viruses including resurgent influenza virus.  XBB.1.5 is one of the most immune-evasive SARS-CoV-2 variants to date. It also appears to be more transmissible. These features help explain why XBB.1.5 is currently outcompeting other variants such as the BQ lineages in the US, and may also be why it appears to be associated with higher hospitalisation rates.

Thus, we urgently need the multi-layered approach (a.k.a. “Vaccines Plus”) as called for by the Scientific Advisory Group in Emergences (SAGE) in their paper published in 2021: “Sustaining behaviours to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission” and the associated journal article “Staying ‘COVID-safe’: Proposals for embedding behaviours that protect against COVID-19 transmission in the UK” 

Immediate steps, as called for by Independent SAGE in its final report of 2022, are:

1. If you haven’t done so already, get vaccinated and/or get a booster without delay. If eligible for the Flu vaccine, ensure you and/or your children have this as well. This vaccine is also available to purchase (anyone over the age of 12) for those able to afford to do so.
2. If you feel unwell, or have been in close contact with someone who is (or has tested positive for COVID), don’t go out and risk infecting others – whether with SARS-CoV2, influenza or anything else.
3. Before visiting others, especially anyone elderly or otherwise vulnerable, take a COVID test if you can.
4. When you meet others, make sure the setting is as well-ventilated as possible.
5. Where possible, wear a mask in crowded indoor situations, especially where air quality may be poor (e.g. public transport)

These immediate measures need to be combined in the longer term with Government investment to make public spaces (social, educational and workplace) safe through ventilation and air filtration, providing free tests and masks for those unable to afford them, and an effective public communication campaign about the symptoms associated with current variants. These are critical steps needed to reduce the likelihood of people transmitting SARS-CoV2, becoming seriously ill and/or dying from COVID-19. Finally, many, even without severe infections, may suffer long-term health problems due to long COVID.

DJ Excess deaths numbers may be extreme...Genocide-by-pandemic conservative politics...Criminals in power "best prepared for pandemics"US-UK-NL" does get a different meaning...

Paul Mainwood

@PaulMainwood

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5h

Don't really know what to say. Category 2 ambulance calls include those for suspected heart attacks and strokes. The mean response time in December was 1 hour 32 minutes across England; 2 hours 39 in the South West. The target is 18 minutes.

link [url]https://twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1613463576034906112/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1613463576034906112/photo/1 

COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

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7h

Are A&E pressures really leading to hundreds of additional deaths each week? 

@ActuaryByDay

 and colleagues 

@LCP_Actuaries

 crunch the numbers and conclude that a significant number of patients could be dying because of long delays accessing emergency care.

link [url]https://covidactuaries.org/2023/01/11/are-nhs-waiting-timescontributing-to-excess-deaths/[/url] or https://covidactuaries.org/2023/01/11/are-nhs-waiting-timescontributing-to-excess-deaths/ ; 

Conclusion 

Our analysis suggests that a significant number of patients could be dying because of long delays accessing emergency care. We estimate this number at over 400 deaths each week between September and November, though it might be higher. The measure we have used is 30-day mortality, so not all of these deaths occur within A&E, or even within the hospital setting.  

There have always been some long delays in A&E departments, particularly during the winter months. However, delays have grown considerably longer since the summer of 2021. This suggests that more additional deaths from long delays might be occurring than was the case pre-pandemic. So this issue is likely to be contributing to observed excess deaths. Depending on the reference period used for comparison, additional delays in A&E may be associated with between 200 and 340 excess deaths each week. Further research that provides estimates at regional and more local level would provide further insights.

This blog has been republished with permission from LCP Viewpoint.

You can hear Stuart discuss this work with Tim Harford on BBC More or Less.

Update

December data has now been published and, as anticipated, shows longer waiting times than in September to November. Using the “trolley waits” approach above results in approximately 2,200 additional deaths in December, or 500 each week. Again, no account has been taken of the waiting time before the decision to admit and we have not allowed for extra harm arising when dates are more than twelve hours.

DJ...."genocide by pandemic-policy"......

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Nina Wildflower

@Ninawildflower

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7h

My children are on school council. Yesterday, one of the ideas the teacher raised with the student leaders is using "positive peer pressure" to encourage sick children to attend school. The entire health and social care system in our area has declared a "critical incident"

DJ...one can have some questions on safety/effectiveness of vaccines without "promoting natural immunity"....

Prof. Christina Pagel  Retweeted

Binita Kane

@BinitaKane

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7h

I find it odd that those calling for vaccines to be ‘pulled’ rarely talk about the harm from COVID infection, long covid, the high rate of vascular events post covid (proven from a time before vaccines were available) and the fact infection has killed millions across the world.

DJ...COrona VIral Disease (COVID) is the bigger danger...those discussing vaccines often also oppose masks, NPI...