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UK variant may be more deadly than original

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    Posted: January 22 2021 at 9:33am

COVID-19: UK coronavirus variant may be more deadly than original, PM warns

While the UK variant may be more deadly, the prime minister says "all evidence" shows current vaccines are effective against it.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 22 2021 at 10:58am

[url]https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/jan/22/uk-covid-live-coronavirus-latest-news-updates-500-payment-boris-johnson-downing-street-borders-travel[/url] or https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/jan/22/uk-covid-live-coronavirus-latest-news-updates-500-payment-boris-johnson-downing-street-borders-travel ;

Here is the Nervtag paper published on the new UK variant, which was referenced in the press conference earlier this evening.

The variant appears to have increased transmissibility compared to other variants in the UK and some recent analyses have been undertaken which show that there may be an increase in the severity of disease associated with this new variant, as the prime minister announced.

However, there are limitations to the data and further research is crucial.

Dr Susan Hopkins, the strategic response director at PHE said:

There is evidence from some but not all data sources which suggests that the variant of concern which was first detected in the UK may lead to a higher risk of death than the non-variant. Evidence on this variant is still emerging and more work is underway to fully understand how it behaves.

Covid-19 is still very much with us and causing severe illness and death. The most important thing is to stay at home. Wash your hands regularly and thoroughly, cover you face and keep your distance. Remember that every unnecessary contact with someone else may create a chain of transmission that eventually leads to a vulnerable person becoming seriously unwell.

[url]https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/nervtag-paper-on-covid-19-variant-of-concern-b117[/url] or https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/nervtag-paper-on-covid-19-variant-of-concern-b117 

DJ-Alarming-not only spread up 55% also 30% more deadly...bad news

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Hazelpad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 22 2021 at 11:40am

Yes things aren't great here in UK.  I think most people in UK suspected this as we were looking at what the government were doing rather than what they were saying.  Within a week we went from "We hope never to have another National lockdown"  to "Shut everything NOW".

Its not hospital deaths that have risen, it seems to be those staying at home with "happy hypoxia"  or arriving too late, and dying before they realise they are ill.  The virus appears to be suppressing the receptors that trigger the body's natural response to low blood oxygen.    (Could speculate  with this new variant the receptors are blocked more, but that latter is just my observation).

Usually by the time your oxygen saturation is at 90% you will be struggling, breathing heavy, panting and not able to walk from room to room.  This is because as your blood oxygen levels drop, it triggers a protective response that tells you to increase breathing rate, limit your movement, changes BP, BPM and activates oxygen saving processes.  meanwhile you will be in an ambulance getting oxygen, etc. Thats how ill you will be.     With this virus they say this natural trigger just isnt happening until very low oxygen levels, it is being suppressed.  So  they are seeing patients as low as 82% still talking, and walking with no idea they are suffocating. They are  "happy Hypoxic"

In light of this the government have issued advice for people to buy pulse oximeters and use them after diagnosis to monitor their own oxygen levels.  They have started issuing them in a trial themselves.  Seems like good advice.  If you don't have one, though I know most of you will, get one from Amazon before they get short supply.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55733527

Covid: How a £20 gadget could save lives

One of the mysteries of Covid-19 is why oxygen levels in the blood can drop to dangerously low levels without the patient noticing.

It is known as "silent hypoxia".As a result, patients have been arriving in hospital in far worse health than they realised and, in some cases, too late to treat effectively.But a potentially life-saving solution, in the form of a pulse oximeter, allows patients to monitor their oxygen levels at home, and costs about £20.They are being rolled out for high-risk Covid patients in the UK, and the doctor leading the scheme thinks everyone should consider buying one.Oxygen levelsA normal oxygen level in the blood is between 95% and 100%."With Covid, we were admitting patients with oxygen levels in the 70s or low-or-middle 80s," said Dr Matt Inada-Kim, a consultant in acute medicine at Hampshire Hospitals.He told BBC Radio 4's Inside Health: "It was a really curious and scary presentation and really made us rethink what we were doing."Dr Inada-Kim became the national clinical lead of the Covid Oximetry@home project
A pulse oximeter slips over your middle finger and shines a light into the body. It measures how much of the light is absorbed in order to calculate oxygen levels in the blood. In England, they are being given to people with Covid who are over 65, younger but have a health problem, or anyone doctors are concerned about. Similar schemes are being rolled out across the UK.People measure and record their oxygen levels three times a day.



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Hazelpad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 22 2021 at 11:50am

sorry posted twice

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 22 2021 at 11:52am

Last Feb I bought a pulse oximeter and an oxygen concentrator just in case, as the early signs were bad. They were both cheap and plentiful back then.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 22 2021 at 12:14pm

Ditto, KiwiMum.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 22 2021 at 12:22pm

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/955239/NERVTAG_paper_on_variant_of_concern__VOC__B.1.1.7.pdf or https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/955239/NERVTAG_paper_on_variant_of_concern__VOC__B.1.1.7.pdf 

This is just a first study...panic is not helping..I expect more studies get available very soon. 

Good news is cases going down-were related to christmas/new year spreading. Bad news people may not know they are suffocating till they drop...There were some reports on "alarm signals being turned of" earlier..not expecting it on a large scale.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 22 2021 at 1:27pm

This UK strain spreads easier - more contagious

it also is deadlier

and other strains have mutated around the vaccine


https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/emerging-evidence-that-new-uk-virus-strain-is-more-deadly-boris-johnson-announces-20210123-p56waw.html

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Hazelpad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 22 2021 at 1:47pm

I don't think we are panicking here in UK.  I think many have become desensitized to the amount of deaths per day.  

I mean if 1800 people died in a plane crash today in the UK it would be all over the news, but the same amount dying of coronavirus each day here....well sometimes it doesn't even make the main news there is an acceptance now.

The numbers are going down but that is in part due to lockdown.    No schools, no universities, no shops except food, no meeting anyone from outside your home, no going to work.  Hoping the vaccine gives a longer term solution.


As for happy hypoxia DJ, you are right in that it has been mentioned  since way back early Feb 2020.  The mechanism is still unresolved.  Some claim it is viral interference at  the neurological level that is preventing signals that match respiratory drive to respiration rate.   ( Does the virus cross the blood brain barrier, I dont know ?),  Others say it is directly binding of the virus to the mechanoreceptors in the respiratory system itself.  

Nevertheless the presence of asymptomatic hypoxia is associated with a poorer outcome, and hospitals and doctors in UK are provisionally reporting an increase of this symptom in patients in this wave. Even when in respiratory distress and cyanotic many patients still feeling little respiratory discomfort.  The data isn't there yet to know if this is a blip, or associated with the new variant, at the moment it is just a real time observation that compared to last April, they are seeing more late stage asymptomatic hypoxia.  Also reporting seeing younger patients.


Quote But as we hit December, cases in the south east of England, where I work, continued to rise all around us. The virus worked quickly. Patients would come in smiling, talking, not realising their oxygen levels were already critically low, and probably had been for days. We term these cases “happy hypoxia”. Our hearts would sink as we pulled up their chest X-rays. Their fate was already sealed. We knew hours later they would be face down, fighting for their lives on a ventilator. 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/dec/29/christmas-patients-coronavirus-intensive-care

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33130200/



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cn65 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 23 2021 at 2:11am

You are incorrect re work,  it is clear in England part of the UK where I live.

If your job requires you to go out of your house to do that work and you cannot do that work from home then you can go out of your house to do that work.  There is NO restriction on whether that work is defined as "essential" or not.

So all tradesmen etc are working, their supplies, builders merchants, electrical and plumbers merchants  and the rest are all working, as is all large construction works and their workers. The DIY shops are open and people are buying stuff from them: paint, lightbulbs etc I've been in B&Q this week.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 23 2021 at 2:48am

Strain on the healthcare system = higher mortality. I might actually agree with the incompetent WHO on this one.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9178851/PHE-chief-admits-not-absolutely-clear-Kent-strain-deadly.html

"The WHO also undermined No10, saying it had not yet seen any evidence to convince it that the Kent strain was actually more deadly than other strains. In a thinly-veiled jab at the UK Government, the body said it was more likely that the increased death rate was a result of ministers losing a grip on infections."

How deadly is the Kent Covid variant? Confusion mounts as scientists offer wildly different estimates 

There was confusion last night about how deadly the Kent coronavirus variant really is after 10 SAGE studies came to wildly different conclusions about its lethality and the World Health Organization said it still hadn't seen any convincing data.

Boris Johnson and his science chiefs made the shocking claim that the strain — called B.1.1.7 — could be 30 per cent more deadly than older versions of the virus without presenting any evidence to back up the terrifying development.  

The announcement came after 10 studies submitted to SAGE overwhelmingly suggested that the strain was more lethal than past variants. But there are question marks over the findings because the estimates varied vastly and one study even found the strain was less deadly than the older version.

The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine estimated the risk of death from the new variant could be 1.35 times greater, Imperial College London said it was between 1.29 and 1.36 times, Exeter University found it may be 1.91 and Public Health England said it could be as high as 1.6. But there are further questions over the reliablity of the data because the research was only based on a few hundreds deaths. 

Public Health England chief Dr Susan Hopkins cautioned people from reading too much into the findings and suggested the evidence was still murky. She added: 'There is evidence from some but not all data sources which suggests that the variant of concern which was first detected in the UK may lead to a higher risk of death than the non-variant. Evidence on this variant is still emerging and more work is underway to fully understand how it behaves.'  

Sir Patrick Vallance told the briefing last night that hospital data had suggested the variant could increase the risk of death for a man his 60s from 1 per cent to 1.3 per cent, but he admitted 'the evidence is not yet strong'. Adding to the confusion, Professor Chris Whitty, said he was not entirely convinced the strain was deadlier in the first place.

And the variant has already been spotted in 60 countries, including most of continental Europe, the US, Australia, India, China and Saudi Arabia - yet none of those countries have reported a higher mortality rate from the new variant. 

Kit Yates, a mathematical biologist at the University of Bath, slammed the Government for causing confusion and panic about the variant. He tweeted: 'I really dislike the way the news about the increased lethality of B1.1.7 was leaked out and then discussed in a press briefing. Where is the data? We want to be able to scrutinise it and to understand the detail, not just the summary.'

The WHO also undermined No10, saying it had not yet seen any evidence to convince it that the Kent strain was actually more deadly than other strains. In a thinly-veiled jab at the UK Government, the body said it was more likely that the increased death rate was a result of ministers losing a grip on infections.

Dr Mike Ryan, chief of the WHO's Health Emergencies Programme, told a separate press conference today: 'There is a big difference between the lethality of a virus, how many people on average a virus kills, versus the mortality. If I have one million people infected and my lethality is 1 per cent, or two million people infected with a lethality of 1 per cent, twice as many people will die [in the second case].'

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Hazelpad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 23 2021 at 4:02am

Hi cn65

I am slso in UK in Scotland.  Our country dont get to do what some parts of England get.  Things much stricter here.  Nicola Sturgeon has shut down as much as she can..  We arent even allowed to click and collect except food., and are actively encouraged to use online shopping where possible  as a trip to supermarket is not without risk ( her words)

Essentials can go to work, but she has redefined essential  and narrowed it. Most Universities are shutt until Oct next year, all distance leaning, except for some essentials like medicine etc.

Construction is a grey area here.  You cant get someone to build you an extension just now, or  have trades in unless it is absolutely essential to your property.  DIY stores and Screwfix are open on reduced hours but we are being told only for essentials. The SNP campaign up here says that every shop you visit increases your risk, the shop person having to serve you  and those more vulnerable in society.  I am not sure what it is like in your region, but we are discouraged from going out.

 In the part of Scotland I live we have been this way for months.  Fines have increased as well. 

Some follow rules some dont.  I think the stats Boris went for was 70% compliance but not sure if he got close to that.  

Hope your area cases are stabilising.  England faster at vaccine roll out than Scotland.  

Hxz


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tabitha111 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 23 2021 at 7:28am

Thanks for the reminder regarding a pulse oximeter. Amazon US has many in stock, mine will be delivered tomorrow. I remember when it was almost impossible to get one on there at the beginning of this.  I wonder if that will happen again as this new variant moves into the US.

'A man who does not think and plan long ahead will find trouble right at his door.'
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 23 2021 at 8:00am

Originally posted by ksc ksc wrote:

Strain on the healthcare system = higher mortality. I might actually agree with the incompetent WHO on this one.

I agree.  They are pretty incompetent, but still better than no WHO.  Not a lot better, because of incompetence, but a bit better.

Once this crisis is over, if ever, I think a bit of reform of the WHO is called for.  There is some good advice given out by them, but also a bucket or two of whitewash.  

MORE SCIENCE - LESS POLITICS!

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 23 2021 at 10:45am

This may not be more deadly when considering Infection Fatality Rate, but if more people get the disease the more will die. 


Anyway, right now "The number of coronavirus patients on mechanical ventilation in the UK has passed 4,000 for the first time in the pandemic. " The peak in the first wave was 3,301 patients.  

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55782716

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 23 2021 at 11:20am

Originally posted by cn65 cn65 wrote:

You are incorrect re work,  it is clear in England part of the UK where I live.

If your job requires you to go out of your house to do that work and you cannot do that work from home then you can go out of your house to do that work.  There is NO restriction on whether that work is defined as "essential" or not.

So all tradesmen etc are working, their supplies, builders merchants, electrical and plumbers merchants  and the rest are all working, as is all large construction works and their workers. The DIY shops are open and people are buying stuff from them: paint, lightbulbs etc I've been in B&Q this week.

That's interesting. Here in NZ during our lockdown last year, only essential workers could leave the house. If you couldn't work from home and you weren't an essential worker, then you couldn't work at all but could claim a wage subsidy. Builders and plumbers etc were non essential workers so had to stay at home. But if they need to go and do a repair job at a supermarket or pharmacy (the only shops allowed to be open), then they were deemed to be essential workers for the duration of that job. My hubby did 2 emergency call outs for our local supermarket during that time, both of which he went and did at 5am before the store opened, other than that he stayed at home for the 5 weeks. Our DIY stores were shut for the duration.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 23 2021 at 11:25am

Originally posted by Technophobe Technophobe wrote:

Ditto, KiwiMum.

Great minds think alike.   I have to say that just having those things sitting in a cupboard gives great peace of mind. I also bought a blood pressure machine and a couple of non contact thermometers and a few oxygen masks and tubes to go with the machine. I feel like I have quite the little hospital set up here. About a week after my concentrator arrived (and it's a big one) the prices of them went through the roof and they became rarer than hen's teeth, but when I bought mine I had the choice of 5 of them.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 23 2021 at 5:20pm

I have two of those too.  But the real plan is to avoid it altogether.  So we have become hermits.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote John L. Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 24 2021 at 1:32am

CDC reviewing new data that suggests coronavirus variant identified in UK could be more deadly 

Elizabeth Cohen-Profile-Image

By Elizabeth Cohen, CNN Senior Medical Correspondent


Updated 3:37 AM ET, Sun January 24, 2021

Registered nurse Irene Musni administers the COVID-19 vaccine into the arm of a senior citizen at the Corona High School gymnasium in the Riverside County city of Corona, California on January 15, 2021, a day after California began offering the coronavirus vaccine to residents 65 and older. - US President-elect Joe Biden was set to announce his Covid-19 vaccine rollout plan Friday as he bids to wrest the focus from the impeachment of Donald Trump to the agenda for his first days in office. Biden has said he wants 100 million Americans to receive shots during his first 100 days in office, an ambitious goal that would require a big step up in the current pace of distribution. (Photo by Frederic J. BROWN / AFP) (Photo by FREDERIC J. BROWN/AFP via Getty Images)








Sorry but our website's software is leaving me stuck with two giant photos, but scroll down until you reach the text below for a good clarification on deadliness of the new strain.  Keep in mind they are saying from one percent to 1.4 percent for 60's year olds, so it is still at least not as horrible as we had in New York in April before they learned to give better care for this disease.  Still awful, I am not minimalising.  https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/23/health/uk-variant-cdc-review/index.html



 (CNN)Scientists at the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are speaking with UK health officials to learn more about British data that suggests a new coronavirus variant could be more deadly. 

"The CDC has reached out to UK officials and is reviewing their new mortality data associated with variant B.1.1.7," a CDC official told CNN Saturday, using the scientific name for the variant first spotted in the UK in November.  
A UK report released Friday states there is "a realistic possibility" that the new variant has a higher death rate than other variants.  
While the data is not conclusive, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson said "there is some evidence that the new variant ... may be associated with a higher degree of mortality." 

Variant found in 22 US states  

CDC modeling shows this new variant, which has been shown to spread especially quickly, could become the predominant variant in the United States by March.  
Only 195 cases of the new variant have been spotted in the US so far, according to the CDC, but public health officials believe many more cases are going undetected. Cases have been found in 22 states, the CDC says, with California and Florida detecting an especially high number.  
CDC still working on goal to double coronavirus sequences to expand hunt for mutations CDC still working on goal to double coronavirus sequences to expand hunt for mutations 
So far, studies suggest that the current vaccines will protect against the new variant, and that wearing masks, social distancing and hand hygiene are key to controlling spread of the virus.  
Michael Osterholm, an epidemiologist and member of President Joe Biden's coronavirus transition team, said he has reviewed the UK report, as well as other data that has not been publicly released, and he is "convinced" that the new variant is deadlier.  
"The data is mounting --  and some of it I can't share -- that clearly supports that B.1.1.7 is causing more severe illness and increased death," said Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. "Already we know this variant has increased transmission, and so this is more very bad news." 
A CDC adviser said it would be ideal if US doctors could check and see how patients with the new variant fare compared to patients infected with other variants.  
But Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease expert at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, said this could be difficult because genomic sequencing -- the lab work necessary to detect new strains -- is not very robust in the United States.  
"Our current ability to determine whether your particular patient has this new strain is very limited, and so this really reinforces the notion that other countries have much more capacity to do this than we do," said Schaffner, a member of the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices.  
The UK has one of the strongest genomic sequencing programs in the world. Their report gives details of several studies that compare the severity of the new variant with previous ones.  
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Sign up here to get The Results Are In with Dr. Sanjay Gupta every Tuesday from the CNN Health team.

The UK's chief science adviser, Patrick Vallance, cited the mortality data, adding that the evidence is not yet strong and the data remain uncertain.  
"If you took ... a man in their 60s, the average risk is that for 1,000 people who got infected, roughly 10 would be expected to unfortunately die with the virus. With the new variant, for 1,000 people infected, roughly 13 or 14 people might be expected to die," he said Friday. 
"That's the sort of change for that sort of age group, an increase from 10 to 13 or 14 out of 1,000 and you will see that across the different age groups as well, a similar sort of relative increase in the risk," he added.  
Analyses cited in the UK report include those done by the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Imperial College London, the University of Exeter and Public Health England.  











                    

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 24 2021 at 10:01am

Our government here in the UK has come to the same conclusion.  The strain is both 70% more contagious and 30% more deadly. - Not the combination we wanted to hear about.  Our Creaking, strained and groaning NHS has no capacity left and we are struggling.

Our lockdowns seem to be working - JUST! - and the numbers have plateaued, but not dropped.  We are at capacity, just holding on by our fingernails, almost at breaking point.

The public here is almost as divided as American politics; about 70% are understanding of the measures and acquiese happily, about 30% are angry with the government for it's stance and a tiny proportion of those resemble the idiots who stormed Capitol Hill;  400 at a wedding, 300 at a rave, - me foaming at the mouth!  It's a good job God forgives, 'cos I can't.  Worse, the bloody disease has not finished its lucky dip of mutations.



New Zealand:  Could you clone Ms Ardern for us, please?   The rest of the world needs one each per country.  A few spares would be nice.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 24 2021 at 1:19pm

Originally posted by Technophobe Technophobe wrote:

Originally posted by ksc ksc wrote:

Strain on the healthcare system = higher mortality. I might actually agree with the incompetent WHO on this one.

I agree.  They are pretty incompetent, but still better than no WHO.  Not a lot better, because of incompetence, but a bit better.

Once this crisis is over, if ever, I think a bit of reform of the WHO is called for.  There is some good advice given out by them, but also a bucket or two of whitewash.  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 24 2021 at 4:21pm
Originally posted by ViQueen24 ViQueen24 wrote:

Originally posted by Technophobe Technophobe wrote:

Originally posted by ksc ksc wrote:

Strain on the healthcare system = higher mortality. I might actually agree with the incompetent WHO on this one.

I agree.  They are pretty incompetent, but still better than no WHO.  Not a lot better, because of incompetence, but a bit better.

Once this crisis is over, if ever, I think a bit of reform of the WHO is called for.  There is some good advice given out by them, but also a bucket or two of whitewash.  

MORE SCIENCE - LESS POLITICS!

A circle around this!

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 25 2021 at 2:41am

I saw something similar to this on the news the other night.

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/12/virus-mutation-catastrophe/617531/

To understand the difference between exponential and linear risks, consider an example put forth by Adam Kucharski, a professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine who focuses on mathematical analyses of infectious-disease outbreaks. Kucharski compares a 50 percent increase in virus lethality to a 50 percent increase in virus transmissibility. Take a virus reproduction rate of about 1.1 and an infection fatality risk of 0.8 percent and imagine 10,000 active infections—a plausible scenario for many European cities, as Kucharski notes. As things stand, with those numbers, we’d expect 129 deaths in a month. If the fatality rate increased by 50 percent, that would lead to 193 deaths. In contrast, a 50 percent increase in transmissibility would lead to a whopping 978 deaths in just one month—assuming, in both scenarios, a six-day infection-generation time. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 25 2021 at 9:02am

Beautifully put.

It is amazing how little people in general understand exponential.  Demonstration after demonstration, go over their heads.  This probably will too, Kilt, but it stands a slightly larger chance.

Thank you.

Believers don't need proof and sceptics won't accept proof.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 26 2021 at 4:24am

Trying to do the calculation; R0-6 days is 1.1 on a population of 10,000=after 6 days 10,000x1,1=11,000, 6 days further 11,000x1,1=12,100 after 12 of 30 days. Next step would be 12,100x1,1=13,310-after 18 days. 13,310x1,1=14,641 after 24 days. So after 30 days 14,641x1,1 would see 16,105(.1)

Mortality 0, 8% would give 129 deaths...129:0,8x100=161,25...? 

Increase of transmission of 50% =R0 1,1+ 0,55=1,65

So on a population of 10,000 step 1= 10,000x1,65=16,500, step 2= 16,500x1,65=27,225 step 3=27,225x1,65=44,921(.25 then step 4=

44,921x1,65=74,119(65=74,120 step 5=74,120 x 1,65=122,298 (OK 122,230 mortality 0,8% =978,4...

An increase of fatality of 50% would mean 0,8% becoming 1,2% 

With a R0 of 1.1 10,000 people would become 16,105 in 5 steps-30 days. Fatality 0,8=(16,105:1000x8) =129, R0=1,2-would 193

With a R0 of 1,65 10,000 would get 122,230...so a much larger group a fatality of 1,2% would be 1222.3x1,2=1467...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 26 2021 at 6:38am

I never even tried, DJ, it was all too depressing.  But yes, a bigger figure again.

SCARY!

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