Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
US is expecting to be overwhelmed |
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meewee
Valued Member Joined: December 13 2005 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 595 |
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Posted: February 02 2006 at 4:12pm |
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So nice to know just how prepared the US is!
By Maggie Fox, Health and Science Correspondent WASHINGTON, Feb 2 (Reuters) - U.S. flu experts are resigned to being overwhelmed by an avian flu pandemic, saying hospitals, schools, businesses and the general public are nowhere near ready to cope. Money, equipment and staff are lacking and few states have even the most basic plans in place for dealing with an epidemic of any disease, let alone the possibly imminent pandemic of H5N1 avian influenza, they told a meeting on Thursday. While a federal plan has been out for several weeks, it lacks essential details such as guidance on when hospitals should start to turn away all but the sickest patients and when schools should close, the experts complained. "There is no way at this time that we can even plan for this epidemic," said Dr. Roger Baxter of the University of California San Francisco and associate director of the Kaiser Permanente Vaccine Study Center. "We could be easily overwhelmed," Baxter told the meeting organized by the Infectious Diseases Society of America, the Society for Healthcare Epidemiology of America, the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. "A lot of our facilities are old, with no isolation facilities," Baxter said. H5N1 avian influenza has swept through flocks across Asia and into Europe, killing or forcing the culling of 200 million birds. It sometimes infects people and has infected 161 documented patients, killing 86 of them. Experts say the virus is mutating steadily and poses the biggest threat yet for a long-expected global influenza pandemic if it acquires the ability to pass from person to person. The world has not seen a flu pandemic since 1968, and that one was mild by most measures. The global public health system has crumbled as people enjoyed the respite from disease, experts say. Now they are scrambling to fix it up, but say it is too big a job to do it quickly. NOWHERE TO TURN Dr. Dan Hanfling, director of emergency management and disaster medicine at the Inova Health System in Falls Church, Virginia, said hospitals in the Washington, D.C., area would be flooded with patients with nowhere to put them. "There are going to be many, many people coming to the hospital because they are worried they may have been exposed," Hanfling said. If there was just a 10 percent infection rate, that would mean 500,000 sick people in the Washington, D.C., area, Hanfling calculated. Some models assume that 20 percent of these people would need to be treated in hospitals. "We are talking about finding 100,000 places," Hanfling said. "We have 7,800 staffed beds." And hospitals are already filled to capacity with everyday illnesses. "We'll still have heart attacks. We'll still have strokes. We'll still have babies to deliver," Hanfling told the meeting. He cited one survey that showed only 66 percent of health care workers would show up for work if they thought patients might infect them. And an expected 25 percent could be out sick themselves, or caring for sick family members. Dr. Trish Perl, president of the Society for Healthcare Epidemiology of America and director for infection control at Johns Hopkins Hospital in Baltimore said she did a quick estimate of how many masks, for instance, a hospital would need to get through a pandemic outbreak. A protective face mask is standard equipment for use in caring for patients with respiratory disease such as flu. A 600-bed hospital would need 1.6 million masks to get through six weeks -- and that is assuming the hospital eases up on rules requiring workers to wear a fresh mask at each encounter with each patient, Perl said.
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God Bless us all!
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mightymouse
Valued Member Joined: January 27 2006 Status: Offline Points: 487 |
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WOW! Great post...... Now I'm really worried. This is starting to really hit home. |
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Nothing matters - Therefore everything matters
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swankyc
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 11 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 314 |
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Huh!? He can t do ANYTHING? I suppose them San Franciscan doctors are all going to wait for the govt to tell them exactly what to do. Interesting. I didnt know it was the federal govt's place to do so.
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I'm not afraid, I'm paranoid. Dont talk too loud, they are listening.
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Good article - sums up the grim details clearly, that's why I just got more N-95's while I still can or can afford them, as well as a portable generator. By the time the other 99% of the population are aware of the problem it will be too late to get any masks. I view the mask as my primary method of protection. I have not found any isolated caves for my family yet. |
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CupcakeMom
Adviser Group Joined: January 20 2006 Status: Offline Points: 140 |
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Thanks, meewee, article was a good find-- Cupcake
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1.6 million masks just for 6 weeks for a small hospital???? There will never be enough masks! |
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jackson
Adviser Group Joined: January 26 2006 Status: Offline Points: 411 |
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That's why I think that a lot of hospital staff will quit showing up to
work. (and that will create even greater problems) But, would you
risk infection knowing that you had no masks or protective equipment
and you probably wouldn't get any Tamiflu if you did get sick???
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Tired
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 13 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 170 |
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In all honesty, I wouldnt expect ANY health care workers to show up if
they know that there will be no masks to protect them. I think it would
be really unfair and unrealistic to expect them to.
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Better to be safe than sorry.... |
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meewee
Valued Member Joined: December 13 2005 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 595 |
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I know that is just what freaked me out...I mean what the h*ll? Does that mean we have such a defeatist attitude as a country therefore we are not even going to try? Is this what is going on with the reason that the general population is not "REALLY" informed as to just how serious this is?
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God Bless us all!
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jackson
Adviser Group Joined: January 26 2006 Status: Offline Points: 411 |
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I just think it is an incredibly sad situation. The U.S. has known for
a number of years about the developing threat of avian flu, but has
done little in terms of preparation. If we had been stockpiling
medicine and masks since the time we first learned about the possiblity
of pandemic, we would not be faced with the probability that the health
care system will collapse in the U.S.
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Corn
Valued Member Joined: December 13 2005 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 1219 |
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Rick, The looking for a cave thing, are you for real? what type of envioronment do you live in now? urban? suburbs? country? why the caves? |
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stardust
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 21 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 224 |
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This is going to be a time when the ones that prepared are truly going to have to be selfish. The good way. And as I have read on another post....it's not like alot of people don't know about this thing. Most everyone that I have mentioned to about BF get so freaked out when I lay out the possible social/health outcome, they just want to bury their head in the sand. One guy said to me "I have enough things to worry about let alone bird flu." Wow, I thought. Right now that is my main concern, getting prepared. So, we are truly on our own. Thank goodness for this forum. I have been learning sooooo much. Thanks everyone! |
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"Prepping is Power"!
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"Rick,
The looking for a cave thing, are you for real? what type of envioronment do you live in now? urban? suburbs? country? why the caves?" --------------------- It's a figure of speech, gallows humor. Sometimes you have to laugh or go crazy. Edited by Rick |
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janetn
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 04 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 333 |
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The healthcare system has been in bad shape for a long time. In some areas it ceases to function on busy weekends. The problem is systemic, hospitals get what the insurance companies give them,and the government gives them. We have a for profit motive behind healthcare. Insurance companies seek to please wallstreet. Some hospitals are for profits to. drug companies are answerable to wall street. Im not hopeful that things will change in the near future. There is no way hospitals have the money nor the will to prepare in a meaningful way. The governments concern for the general public was demonstrated last year in New Orleans. A drill had been done showing that a big hurricane would swamp NO and many would die. National Geographic did a story that in hindsight looked as if it was peeled from the headlines. Warnings were given loud and clear. Yet nobody did a thing in advance, the funding for the levees was cut again and again. What did Congress do to the money that was requested to prepare for the BF????? The pittance that it was in the first place was slashed in half. Our government is shortsighted . We are on our own kids. |
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Corn
Valued Member Joined: December 13 2005 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 1219 |
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Rick, may not be a bad idea to have a go to place. I would like to have a secondary shelter. Was eyeing the hillside behind the house. dig into the hill. build a concrete structure and cover it back up. Houses are targets. Wouldn't take much to loose your home bound preps if things got ugly. |
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Speculation is the only tool we have with a threat that can circle the globe in 30 days. Test results&news is slow.Factor in human conditions,politics, money&bingo!The truth!Facts come after the fact.
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I can see be looted being a real posiblity too. The idea of a second location is a good idea but what type and where. I live in a populated subburb average middle class neighbourhood low crime rate but no hiding places around here. Personally I want the goverment to develop a plan around food distributation . If some one wants to rob you they will . |
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