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Now tracking the new emerging South Africa Omicron Variant

What will kill us ?

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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    Posted: October 28 2022 at 10:32pm

DJ, a non-expert view....

In pandemic-breakfast yesterday I wrote -my idea- we ware moving from a "red tag"  Life-threatening injuries [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triage_tag[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triage_tag to a black  Pain medication only, until death one....In latest news I did put some updates on ebola, cholera, "MPX-MonkeyPoX"....CoViD is far from over, TB(c), flu (H5N1) is on the rise....

I do have a limited history background-NOT a medical one...

Infectious diseases are not new...We did see flu-pandemics killing up to 2 million people in an outbreak not that far away in history...Good public healthcare, vaccines, hygiene does save lots of lives...But one needs a functioning economy, "good politics" to have good healthcare for enough people to matter...

-Energy/currency crises

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/political/top-dems-urge-biden-nationalize-oil-gas-industry[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/political/top-dems-urge-biden-nationalize-oil-gas-industry ;

The energy crisis is worsening. The U.S. has fewer than 30 days of diesel and other distillate fuels, the lowest level since 1945. Supplies are so low that there will be shortages and price spikes within six months unless the U.S. enters recession, experts warn. In response, the Biden administration is releasing more oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. But the reserves are of crude oil, not refined oil products such as diesel. And the releases are stifling investment in future oil production. “People are depleting their emergency stocks,” warned Saudi Arabia’s energy minister earlier this week. “Losing emergency stocks may become painful in the months to come.”

In response, influential Democrats, including a leading U.S. Senate candidate, a former Department of Energy official, and an influential energy expert, are urging the U.S. government to socialize America’s oil and gas firms.

-

One is a piece of legislation called “NOPEC,” which passed the Senate Judiciary Committee in May.

The bill would change U.S. antitrust law to revoke a policy of sovereign immunity, which protects OPEC+ members from lawsuits. If NOPEC became law, the U.S. attorney general could sue Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members in court. The result could be a disruption of global supplies of oil and other commodities if nations retaliated against the U.S.

The other is an effort led by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to cap the price of Russian oil sold on global markets, which I and many other experts have warned since June is unworkable, because China and India have said they would circumvent it, and could backfire, resulting in far higher oil prices.

Last week, analysts with Rapidan Energy told the same Houston conference that the December 5 implementation of the Russian price cap could reduce global supplies of oil by 1.5 million barrels per day. Such an amount would create an oil price shock.

Earlier this month, Bordoff told the World Economic Forum, which has called for a “Great Reset” to quickly move from fossil fuels to renewables, that climate change required a “massive transition” that is “going to be messy, it’s going to be disruptive.”

DJ Also in Europe growing pressure for more political control over energy. Some countries seem to be able to make faster changes in energy. NL had to reduce its gas-exploration in the north of the country (due to earthquakes) so NL was already on its way to "diversify"...(If you want to name that "great reset" go ahead...it is the proces that matters...not the name...). 

My view [url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/methane-keeps-rising.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/methane-keeps-rising.html for climate change reasons we have no other option than make major changes in a short time....In my view that also would mean a very major reduction in fossil fuel consumption (cars, airtraffic, some industries ). Limiting time in the shower or no lights on monuments will not do the job...

[url]https://thesaker.is/everybody-wants-to-hop-on-the-brics-express/[/url] or https://thesaker.is/everybody-wants-to-hop-on-the-brics-express/ ;

The SCO, led by China and Russia, is a pan-Eurasian institution originally focused on counter-terrorism but now increasingly geared towards geoeconomic – and geopolitical – cooperation. BRICS, led by the triad of Russia, India, and China overlaps with the SCO agenda geoeconomically and geopoliticallly, expanding it to Africa, Latin America and beyond: that’s the concept of BRICS+, analyzed in detail in a recent Valdai Club report, and fully embraced by the Russia-China strategic partnership.

The report weighs the pros and cons of three scenarios involving possible, upcoming BRICS+ candidates:

First, nations that were invited by Beijing to be part of the 2017 BRICS summit (Egypt, Kenya, Mexico, Thailand, Tajikistan).

Second, nations that were part of the BRICS foreign ministers’ meeting in May this year (Argentina, Egypt, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Nigeria, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Thailand).

Third, key G20 economies (Argentina, Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Turkiye).

And then there’s Iran, which has already already shown interest in joining BRICS.

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has recently confirmed that “several countries” are absolutely dying to join BRICS. Among them, a crucial West Asia player: Saudi Arabia.

What makes it even more astonishing is that only three years ago, under former US President Donald Trump’s administration, Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman (MbS) – the kingdom’s de fact ruler – was dead set on joining a sort of Arab NATO as a privileged imperial ally.

Diplomatic sources confirm that the day after the US pulled out of Afghanistan, MbS’s envoys started seriously negotiating with both Moscow and Beijing.

DJ..a change in global energy consumption brings a change in energy production...the "petro-dollar" is history...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industrial_Revolution[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industrial_Revolution One can claim the "Industrial revolution" is an ongoing proces...computer/robet technology already one big change, low pay countries working for rich countries another shift in the last 40 years...Of course the start of the industrial revolution-steam engines-1760-also started a new form of colonial expansion and exploration...

How do energy/currency changes kill ? 

Hyperinflation....already healthcare in Europe (soon in the US) is facing way to high energy bills. And it is only starting....For the Euro-zone I believe the inflation for 2022 is expected to be 12%, 2023 would be 8%....limiting it to 8% only will be possible if we decrease drasticly energy consumption to bring down marketprices...or "nationalize the markets"....

(I think the UK once "nationalized BP to find out BP did take over the UK....Energy companies have such a large budget they may be more powerfull then most countries...). 

I think energy prices will go up further...the estimate of 8% inflation-Eurozone-2023 is "very optimistic"....For the EU lots of energy deals still are made in the US$...so 1 Euro is now below 1 $ (even the UK pound may be moving there...). 

Non-western countries want to get rid of dollars, Euro's pounds, yen....switch to their own financial system. This could result in "western currencies"  becoming as good as worthless...fiat-currencies-printing extra money to keep "the system going" did take away any basics for western currencies...We are now in the phase were these currencies may "keep some value" at gunpoint...Forcing other countries-NATO-to still use western currencies for trade...It did work in Libya, Iraq, but we are at the end of that road...

And the end of that road may go nuclear...with the US as the only country using nuclear weapons against an enemy (Japan-august 1945-as a warning for stalin...). 

So socio-economic collapse kill....Maybe we can prevent nuclear war...preventing civil wars is another issue....

-Climate change

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/10/28/netherlands-sets-new-warm-weather-record-oct-28-weekend-set-new-record-highs[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/10/28/netherlands-sets-new-warm-weather-record-oct-28-weekend-set-new-record-highs 

DJ-Food production and droughts/floodings do not mix....With a global food (and fertilizer) market shortages in one region could get balanced by extra production in other regions...That global food market is (also) close to collapse....[url]https://www.wri.org/research/state-climate-action-2022[/url] or https://www.wri.org/research/state-climate-action-2022 ;

Getting on track by 2030 will require an enormous acceleration in effort.

To achieve these near-term, 1.5°C-aligned targets, the world must:

  • Phase out coal power generation six times faster — equivalent to retiring 925 average-sized coal plants per year.  
  • Improve the energy intensity of building operations five times faster for commercial buildings and seven times faster for residential buildings.
  • Lower the amount of carbon dioxide emitted per tonne of cement produced over ten times faster.
  • Expand public transportation systems, including metros, light-rail trains, and bus rapid transit networks, across the world’s highest-emitting cities six times faster.
  • Reduce the annual rate of deforestation 2.5 times faster — equivalent to avoiding deforestation across an area roughly equivalent to all arable land in Switzerland each year.
  • Shift to healthier, more sustainable diets five times faster by lowering per capita consumption of ruminant meat to the equivalent of 2 burgers per week across Europe, the Americas, and Oceania. 
  • Phase out public financing for fossil fuels five times faster — equivalent to reducing subsidies by an average of $69 billion per year.

DJ...some climate experts claim we may already be getting (to) close to a 2C increase...feed back processes will push the temperature [url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html ;Summary: Total global temperature rise could be as much as 18.44°C by 2026

In summary, adding up all the warming associated with the above elements results in a total potential global temperature rise (land and ocean) of more than 18.44°C in a matter of years, by as early as 2026.

science does not agree on such an extreme temperature rise in such a short time...however [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_growth[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_growth in climate change is accepted science...But it is a complex proces...

DJ-I would love to believe ice moving from Greenland into the ocean may slow down (Arctic) warming...(but less ice on Greenland will bring more seismic activity...) 

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 28 2022 at 10:47pm

part 2,

Climate change melting ice/snow on Greenland, Himalaya, other mountains will disturb the water system...Asia is depending-in a major way-on glaciers for drinking water...Melt water from Greenland may come on top of (warmer-salt) Atlantic Ocean water...It is a 3D-proces...but it will affect fishing, sea life...

[url]https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20220912/climate-change-pandemics-more-common[/url] or https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20220912/climate-change-pandemics-more-common ;

Sept. 12, 2022 – The likelihood of an extreme infectious disease epidemic – similar to the COVID-19 pandemic – could triple in the coming decades, according to a recent study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The chance of someone seeing a pandemic like COVID-19 during their lifetime is about 38%, which could double in the years to come.

The possibility of another pandemic is “going to probably increase because of all of the environmental changes that are occurring,” William Pan, PhD, one of the study authors and an associate professor of global environmental health at Duke University, told ABC News.


DJ...We may already be in that proces...The massive spread of CoViD (infecting at least 3 billion-out of 8 billion people-and over 100 other species) is resulting in less immunity protection for us humans-as a species....[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory  has links to both climate change and-very likely-less immunity post CoViD in (many) hosts....

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015%E2%80%9316_Zika_virus_epidemic[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015%E2%80%9316_Zika_virus_epidemic ; An epidemic of Zika fever, caused by Zika virus, began in Brazil and affected other countries in the Americas from April 2015 to November 2016. The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the end of the epidemic in November 2016, but noted that the virus still represents "a highly significant and long term problem".[2] It is estimated that 1.5 million people were infected by Zika virus in Brazil,[3] with over 3,500 cases of infant microcephaly reported between October 2015 and January 2016.[4] The epidemic also affected other parts of South and North America, as well as several islands in the Pacific.[5]

DJ, MPX cases may now be at confirmed cases about half of the Brazil total Zika-virus number of 1,5 million...

Malaria, cholera were widespread in Europe till 70-80 years ago...malaria is already moving north...Medication, limiting virus spread via insects helped to limit diseases...lyme-disease is however expanding high speed...

We did have public healthcare as a defence against diseases-resulting in an increase of life expectency from 40 years around 1900 to close to 80 years in some rich countries around 2020...But life expectency is decreasing now...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_expectancy[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_expectancy 

Until the middle of the 20th century, infant mortality was approximately 40–60% of the total mortality. Excluding child mortality, the average life expectancy during the 12th–19th centuries was approximately 55 years. If a medieval person survived childhood, they had about a 50% chance of living 50–55 years, instead of only 25–40 years.[5]

DJ [url]https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/nchs_press_releases/2022/20220831.htm[/url] or https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/nchs_press_releases/2022/20220831.htm 

Life expectancy at birth in the United States declined nearly a year from 2020 to 2021, according to new provisional data from the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). That decline – 77.0 to 76.1 years – took U.S. life expectancy at birth to its lowest level since 1996. The 0.9 year drop in life expectancy in 2021, along with a 1.8 year drop in 2020, was the biggest two-year decline in life expectancy since 1921-1923.

also [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_life_expectancy[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_life_expectancy  Japan #1 84,62 years,  NL #22 81,41 UK #28 with 80,9, Cuba #39 78,89 USA #54 77,28 (World Bank-2020 statistics). 

DJ-Can all the factors I mentioned above result in exponential decrease of live expectency ? 

-"politics"

The idea of "privatizing everything" "basics for profit" is resulting in high water prices or low quality water...expensive housing or "hardly a house"...Somehow "politics" has forgotten lessons from the early indistrial age...In the early 19th century industrial workers hardly were able to reach 20...child mortality was extreme...so people had large families...We see that kind of patterns show up again...

Better educated, richer households have less/no children-better health. The more poor, less educated the more children...so a decrease in economic perspectives may result in more poor households with more children getting less care and education...(The "one-child" policy in China is complex-but may have pushed China out of poverty...In the 2020 list China at #59-77.1 years-by now China life expectency may be longer then that of the US...). 

Income inequality means more crime...(the US [url]https://www.statista.com/statistics/191134/reported-murder-and-nonnegligent-manslaughter-cases-in-the-us-since-1990/[/url] or https://www.statista.com/statistics/191134/reported-murder-and-nonnegligent-manslaughter-cases-in-the-us-since-1990/ over 22,000 murders. [url]https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/nchs_press_releases/2021/20211117.htm[/url] or https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/nchs_press_releases/2021/20211117.htm over 100,000 drug related deaths...The US has over 2 million people in prison-<0,5% of its population...25% of ALL prisoners in the world are in US prisons). 

Of course "wars kill"...the Ukraine war may have seen over 400,000 Ukraine military killed (Military Summary). The US Iraq-war may have killed over 1 million Iraq citizens....

Political failure to protect public health, climate, well being for all is "killing us all"...We do not need a nuclear war to see billions die...a combination of diseases, climate/social collapse, poverty, wars already is killing tens of millions each year....

End of part 2

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 29 2022 at 1:41am

part 3

Diseases-and increasing limits to deal with diseases;


Flu is off to an unusually severe start in the US, with the most hospitalizations at this point in the season since the 2009 swine flu pandemic - WaPo


Image

and

Replying to  and 
I was pretty healthy pre-Covid. However, I recently suffered from a pretty bad dose of the flu (negative LFs but who knows) that then became a bad chest infection requiring antibiotics and steroids that has now turned into pleurisy. Covid has wrecked havoc on my immune system.

and








BQ.1* surged up to 27% today says CDC! This should surprise.... absolutely no one that has been following my modeling. BQ estimates falling right in line with my model from almost 4 weeks ago when BQ<2%.  

and [url]https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Increase-in-Tuberculosis-Deaths-During-the-COVID-19-Pandemic-20221027-0020.html[/url] or https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Increase-in-Tuberculosis-Deaths-During-the-COVID-19-Pandemic-20221027-0020.html

The World Health Organization (WHO) said that global TB deaths have seen an increase between 2019 and 2021.


According to the United Nations (UN) agency, the COVID-19 pandemic hampered global efforts to tackle TB. This disease could replace COVID-19 as the world's leading cause of death from a single infectious agent.

DJ...









Monkeypox is back in Los Angeles, California: Switch to table view & all time. Recording started Aug 28. Peak (copies per gram) was Sep 7 at 3,985. Went to zero on Sep 27 until Oct 12 when it started to zoom up again. Currently at 2,293 (copies per gram). http://publichealth.verily.com/#Los%20Angeles,%20CA:MPXV

-

El Ray !😷! P100 + 💉💉💉+bivalent💉

@elray67
·
#MPXV wastewater data for L.A. updated recently.  Highest reading to date in City of Los Angeles (above prev  highest for LA County), >35000/g. @RolandBakerIII @joaquinlife @lapublichealth @bumblebuzz6

a combination of diseases -long time destroying health-may increase dramaticly...US may have over 30 million Long CoViD cases...A lot of healthcare staff may be dealing with disease and burn out...Inflation/energy costs yet another burden for healthcare-already understaffed...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/vaccines/961677-influenza-other-respir-viruses-h1n1-g4-swine-influenza-t-cell-epitope-analysis-in-swine-and-human-vaccines-and-circulating-strains-uncovers-potential-risk-to-swine-and-humans[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/vaccines/961677-influenza-other-respir-viruses-h1n1-g4-swine-influenza-t-cell-epitope-analysis-in-swine-and-human-vaccines-and-circulating-strains-uncovers-potential-risk-to-swine-and-humans ;

Abstract

Background: Pandemic influenza viruses may emerge from animal reservoirs and spread among humans in the absence of cross-reactive antibodies in the human population. Immune response to highly conserved T cell epitopes in vaccines may still reduce morbidity and limit the spread of the new virus even when cross-protective antibody responses are lacking.
Methods: We used an established epitope content prediction and comparison tool, Epitope Content Comparison (EpiCC), to assess the potential for emergent H1N1 G4 swine influenza A virus (G4) to impact swine and human populations. We identified and computed the total cross-conserved T cell epitope content in HA sequences of human seasonal and experimental influenza vaccines, swine influenza vaccines from Europe and the United States (US) against G4.
Results: The overall T cell epitope content of US commercial swine vaccines was poorly conserved with G4, with an average T cell epitope coverage of 35.7%. EpiCC scores for the comparison between current human influenza vaccines and circulating human influenza strains were also very low. In contrast, the T cell epitope coverage of a recent European swine influenza vaccine (HL03) was 65.8% against G4.
Conclusions: Poor T cell epitope cross-conservation between emergent G4 and swine and human influenza vaccines in the US may enable G4 to spread in swine and spillover to human populations in the absence of protective antibody response. One European influenza vaccine, HL03, may protect against emergent G4. This study illustrates the use of the EpiCC tool for prospective assessment of existing vaccine strains against emergent viruses in swine and human populations.

and

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/961590-who-tag-ve-statement-on-omicron-sublineages-bq-1-and-xbb[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/961590-who-tag-ve-statement-on-omicron-sublineages-bq-1-and-xbb 

Later today we'll get the CDC's weekly Nowcast updateon variants in the United States, which is expected to show the continued growth of Omicron subvariants BQ.1 and BQ.1.1, which have been eroding the dominance of BA.5 for several weeks.


Last weekend, in ECDC Epidemiological Update: Omicron Variant BQ.1 Spread In The EU/EEA, we saw the ECDC's projection that BQ.1 (and its subvariant BQ.1.1) are expected to become dominant in Europe in the weeks ahead.

It is a different story in Asia, where the XBB variant appears to be surging instead. All three are offshoots from previous Omicron variants, and all appear to have transmission and/or immune escape advantages over previous iterations of the virus.


Reassuringly, we've not seen any indication of increased severity (see ECDC graphic at top of page) from either of these variants, but admittedly, we might not spot those sorts of signals until these variants account for a significantly larger percent of new cases.

Overnight the WHO published a statement from theirTAG-VE (Technical Advisory Group on SARS-CoV-2 Virus Evolution) on the BQ.1 and XBB variants (below) which attempts - based on the limited data available - to quantify the risk posed by these emerging variants.

DJ...maybe new variants itself may "look mild" but limit immunity-so other diseases can do more damage....

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/latest-covid-19-infections-increasing-in-the-united-states-data-from-32-out-of-50-states-shows-104,258-new-infections-and-877-deaths-in-the-last-24-ho[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/latest-covid-19-infections-increasing-in-the-united-states-data-from-32-out-of-50-states-shows-104,258-new-infections-and-877-deaths-in-the-last-24-ho urs

and 

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/international-study-finds-that-sars-cov-2-causes-epigenetic-changes-and-transcriptomic-reprogramming-in-monocytes-of-covid-19-patients[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/international-study-finds-that-sars-cov-2-causes-epigenetic-changes-and-transcriptomic-reprogramming-in-monocytes-of-covid-19-patients 

DJ-It would be very welcome if statistics could still do a job....[url]https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps[/url] or https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps excess deaths may be the "best" indicator....








If this figure approx true for other airports, then it is likely that there is at least one passenger infected with covid on most planes. Any reason to think it would be much lower at other airports? So wear a mask when travelling. After all, you might be the infected person.

DJ...stop the spread ? Maybe a good idea ? Not offering free travel to all kind of virusses when we are dealing with several pandemics ? 

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/10/22/rat-nuisance-reports-amsterdam-increasing-every-year[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/10/22/rat-nuisance-reports-amsterdam-increasing-every-year ;

Reports of rats are on the rise in Amsterdam –– and have been higher than ever over the past couple years, according to Het Parool. They are also becoming increasingly resistant to pesticides.

The GGD has been keeping track of rat reports since 2015. In 2019, this number was at 3,409. In 2020, the number of reports suddenly skyrocketed to 5,477, then to 7,329 in 2021. With three quarters of 2022 over, this year is expect to track with the others, according to Het Parool.

DJ...rat(fleas)s do spread diseases...live in sewers....

Again-I would love to believe we can get out of this healthcare crisis...but we are not doing enough...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 29 2022 at 11:14pm

DJ,

A heatwave often kills more people then a hurricane...less spectacular-more deathly....When you look at history civil wars see (much) more deaths then wars between countries...civil wars may also be harder to solve-can result in breaking up a country. Of course civil wars may bring other countries interventions...making it all more complex...

There are lots of similarities in how climate disasters, wars and pandemics behave....certain "dynamic processes" may be the same....They all need "food" , transport (of warm air, troops, diseases)....They all are predictable-more or less....H5N1 WILL jump to people seems to be the general idea...question is how (via pigs, pets ? or direct to humans ? Will H5N6, H3N2, H1N1 or another flu-variant influence the process ? ) and when (winter north part of the globe most likely....in general more wild birds on the move spreading the virus). 








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DJ, there is a political crisis in lots of countries-with politics supposed to lead us out of the swamp.....








Monkeypox outbreak is ebbing—but why exactly? https://science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adf4961#.Y1sf0l4CoUY.twitter Excellent commentary in  by  "Immunity acquired through infections in the most sexually active men may be the biggest factor for the decline in new infections in Europe and the US/Canada"

link; [url]https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adf4961#.Y1sf0l4CoUY.twitter[/url] or https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adf4961#.Y1sf0l4CoUY.twitter DJ-Herd immunity may work for (this type of ?) MPX...However the real number of MPX cases most likely will be much higher then the reported number...in general MPX is seen as "most mild" ...Risk is it will keep spreading and mutating...the more deathly Congo-variant is next for spreading ? [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/monkeypox/brazil-first-case-of-monkeypox-in-a-dog/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/monkeypox/brazil-first-case-of-monkeypox-in-a-dog/ what about spread in animals ? 

On CoViD lots of-in itself-good news;

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/u-s-study-shows-that-upper-room-germicidal-ultraviolet-c-irradiation-ur-guv-devices-effective-in-eradicating-aerosolized-sars-cov-2-in-enclosed-areas[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/u-s-study-shows-that-upper-room-germicidal-ultraviolet-c-irradiation-ur-guv-devices-effective-in-eradicating-aerosolized-sars-cov-2-in-enclosed-areas 

and 

[url]https://apnews.com/article/health-china-shanghai-covid-73054086e649140d3cf6edf77ae4ef73[/url] or https://apnews.com/article/health-china-shanghai-covid-73054086e649140d3cf6edf77ae4ef73

The Chinese city of Shanghai started administering an inhalable COVID-19 vaccine on Wednesday in what appears to be a world first.

The vaccine, a mist that is sucked in through the mouth, is being offered for free as a booster dose for previously vaccinated people, according to an announcement on an official city social media account.

Scientists hope that such “needle-free” vaccines will make vaccination more accessible in countries with fragile health systems because they are easier to administer. They also may persuade people who don’t like getting a shot in the arm to get inoculated.

DJ....the basic point of course is we could have stopped CoViD-19 in january 2020...but we did not...We could have stopped all kinds of variants-but again we did not....We even managed to see MPX spreading while CoViD-pandemic "was over in main stream media" only....

The inhalable vaccine was developed by Chinese biopharmaceutical company CanSino Biologics Inc. as an aerosol version of the company’s one-shot adenovirus vaccine, which uses a relatively harmless cold virus.

The traditional one-shot vaccine has been approved for use in more than 10 markets including China, Hungary, Pakistan, Malaysia, Argentina and Mexico. The inhaled version has received a go-ahead for clinical trials in Malaysia, a Malaysian media report said last month.

Regulators in India have approved a nasal vaccine, another needle-free approach, but it has yet to be rolled out. The vaccine, developed in the U.S. and licensed to Indian vaccine maker Bharat Biotech, is squirted in the nose.

About a dozen nasal vaccines are being tested globally, according to the World Health Organization.

China has relied on domestically developed vaccines, primarily two inactivated vaccines that have proven effective in preventing death and serious disease but less so than the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines at stopping the spread of the disease.

Chinese authorities also have not mandated vaccination — entering an office building or other public places requires a negative COVID-19 test, not proof of vaccination. And the country’s strict “zero-COVID” approach means that only a small proportion of the population has been infected and built immunity that way, compared to other places.

DJ...in a propaganda war "Zero-CoViD" "would not be effective" ("economy"....) "western freedom for virus spread" would be so much better....Even if you take Chinese (and some other Zero CoViD countries Cuba, Vietnam) statistics with a grain of salt the number of cases, deaths, long/chronic CoViD only shows Zero CoViD-stop the spread-is working....

Ventilation does work, limiting travel, masks work.....a "bizarre idea of freedom" is stopping us from getting pandemics under control....

We urgently need to stop this pandemic !!!!! Again-since CoViD is mutating high speed, able to infect all over the body,does decrease immunity, it is a potential mass-killer maybe even worse then the plague. 

Just like we fail to stop "climate change", only manage to get closer to nuclear war we also push global health in the wrong direction....

Again-are humans self-destructive ? Maybe the short-sighted ideology results in "us" behaving that way....

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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part 2, 

To get a grip on pandemics, diseases statistics may be a basic tool. Testing & reporting....[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table ;

Global cases -as far as tested & reported- may be -19%, deaths -15%

Asia cases +6%, deaths -5%

South America cases +12%, deaths +15%

Africa cases +27%, deaths +196% !!!!! (for all of Africa there were only 28 CoViD-deaths reported last week, 83 last 7 days...)

In Asia-India cases-as far as reported- -32%, deaths -17%

DJ-These statistics even as indicators may have only little value....waste water sampling for virusses may give better info.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/935609-discussion-thread-vii-covid-19-endemic-stage?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/935609-discussion-thread-vii-covid-19-endemic-stage?view=stream ;

WHO Director-General's opening remarks at Member State Information Session on COVID-19 and other issues – 27 October 2022

27 October 2022
...
We are turning a corner on the COVID-19 pandemic, but it is not over. More than two million, six hundred thousand new cases were reported in the last week, with 8 562 new deaths.

The end of this pandemic is in sight, but inequity continues to hobble our response.

Nearly one-third of the world’s population has not yet received a single dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, including over half of health workers and about two-thirds of older people in low-income countries.

This vaccination gap imperils the global recovery and puts us all at risk.

The danger of new, more dangerous variants that can evade our vaccines is real.

We must not become complacent.

===

https://www.who.int/director-general...7-october-2022

DJ Also flutrackers has discussion on safety of vaccines for children;https://nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2209367… Curious why this isn’t getting more attention… According to Moderna themselves: “serious adverse events” affected 1 in 200 toddlers. But they still concluded the mRNA vaccine was “safe in children.”

I think non-pharma interventions should be the main strategy; STOP THE SPREAD !!! Vaccines only can play a limited role-may help limiting severe disease for some, some time...

MPX;

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory only updated once a week ? 

Ebola;

Uganda-ebola [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Uganda_Ebola_outbreak[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Uganda_Ebola_outbreak per oct.27 there are 121 confirmed, 21 probable cases-total 142 with 32 confirmed, 21 probable deaths...So 142 cases resulting in 53 deaths CFR 35% ? But the outbreak is ongoing-very likely to spread...

One can compare the Uganda-ebola outbreak a.o. with;

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ebola_virus_epidemic_in_Sierra_Leone[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ebola_virus_epidemic_in_Sierra_Leone ;

An Ebola virus epidemic in Sierra Leone occurred in 2014, along with the neighbouring countries of Guinea and Liberia. On 18 March 2014, Guinean health officials announced the outbreak of a mysterious hemorrhagic fever "which strikes like lightning".[2] It was identified as Ebola virus disease and spread to Sierra Leone by May 2014.[3] The disease was thought to have originated when a child from a bat-hunting family contracted the disease in Guinea in December 2013.[4]

At the time it was discovered, it was thought that Ebola virus was not endemic to Sierra Leone or to the West African region and that the epidemic represented the first time the virus was discovered there.[5] However, some samples taken for Lassa fever testing turned out to be Ebola virus disease when re-tested for Ebola in 2014, showing that Ebola had been in Sierra Leone as early as 2006.[6]

DJ cases 14,061, deaths 3,955 so CFR just under 30% /

and [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ebola_virus_epidemic_in_Liberia[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ebola_virus_epidemic_in_Liberia ;

An epidemic of Ebola virus disease occurred in Liberia from 2014 to 2015, along with the neighbouring countries of Guinea and Sierra Leone. The first cases of virus were reported by late March 2014.[2] The Ebola virus, a biosafety level four pathogen, is an RNA virus discovered in 1976.[3]

Before the outbreak of the Ebola epidemic the country had 50 doctors for its population of 4.3 million. The country's health system was seriously weakened by a civil war that ended in 2003.[4]

DJ cases 10,675, deaths 4,809 CFR over 45%...shortage of medical care may have pushed the CFR up...

also [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ebola_virus_epidemic_in_Guinea[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ebola_virus_epidemic_in_Guinea ;

An epidemic of Ebola virus disease in Guinea from 2013 to 2016 represents the first ever outbreak of Ebola in a West African country. Previous outbreaks have been confined to several countries in Sub-Saharan Africa.[2]

The epidemic, which began with the death of a two-year-old boy, was part of a larger Ebola virus epidemic in West Africa which spread through Guinea and the neighboring countries of Liberia and Sierra Leone, with minor outbreaks occurring in SenegalNigeria, and Mali. In December 2015, Guinea was declared free of Ebola transmission by the U.N. World Health Organization,[3] however further cases continued to be reported from March 2016.[4] The country was again declared as Ebola-free in June 2016.[5]

DJ cases 3,806...deaths 2,535 so CFR almost 70%....lasted 3 years....

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ebola#1976[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ebola#1976 Sudan 284 cases, 151 deaths....also [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_Zaire_Ebola_virus_outbreak[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_Zaire_Ebola_virus_outbreak 318 cases, 280 deaths show limited spread (as far as detected) high CFR....

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Ebola_outbreaks[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Ebola_outbreaks starts with 1976...however a Roman expedition may have resulted in an ebola-linked (???) [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plague_of_Cyprian[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plague_of_Cyprian in between 249 to 262....

-Infectious diseases have always been around. Climate change and high speed transports increase the risks of infectious diseases....DJ-I think in the present global health crisis stopping spread of diseases should be priority #1 ! You do not want co-infections of CoViD and flu....Ebola in Haïti, Yemen, Somalia, Ukraïne would be a horror scenario....

For ebola, MPX, most types of flu we-at least-see a form of "herd immunity" -after infection-survival-there may be (limited) immunity....

To end this part 2 a Dutch link; [url]https://www.gld.nl/nieuws/7795336/vaccineer-pluimvee-en-koop-boeren-uit-zegt-deze-viroloog[/url] or https://www.gld.nl/nieuws/7795336/vaccineer-pluimvee-en-koop-boeren-uit-zegt-deze-viroloog on "Avian Flu" in NL....

In 1960 there were 5 billion poultry-birds...now it is 35 billion worldwide. NL has 100 million poultry birds (6 million already killed in this wave of (most) H5N1)....6x the average for Europe (=EU)...One of the problems in vaccination of poultry is it may have to be done by spreading the vaccines via the air...may not be very effective. Another problem is -EU rules- vaccinated birds (and their eggs) can not be sold....Part of the NL strategy may be de-concentration of poultry farms...but also a decrease of poultry...

DJ-Pigs may be another "mixing vessel" for all kinds of diseases...Decrease of meat consumption (meat tax) may be a way to decrease pandemic risks....But we also need better air quality, healthier people/animals....A decrease of anti-biotics usage...

End of part 2

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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DJ, 

[url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html ;

How can the problems of war, climate collapse and famine best be addressed? 

Earlier this year, the U.N. issued a warning about famine, pointing out that war is compounding the problems of climate disruption and famine, adding that the "main costs to farmers are fertilizers and energy". The U.N. statement follows many news media reports about the rising cost of living.  


How can these problems best be addressed? Two sets of feebates can best accomplish agriculture reform and a rapid transition to clean, renewable energy, as has been discussed in many earlier posts and as is discussed in more detail below. 

-

Air Taxis and Urban Redesign can further facilitate the necessary transformation

Air taxis can be an important component of the transformation of the way we travel, live, work and eat.

This doesn't have to be an instant shift. In existing cities, there already is a strong and growing movement to restrict the use of cars in city centers, and to instead add more walkways and bikeways. In this case, the roads will still be there, it's just their usage that changes. Another example is pipes. Many cities want to disconnect pipes that now supply natural gas to buildings, as it makes more sense to use electricity instead. The pipes will still be there, they just won't be used anymore, if at all. Digging up the pipes may make sense, but this may take some effort and time and it's therefore important that this issue is not used as an excuse to delay the rapid transition to the use of clean energy that is so urgently needed.

It's important to look at longer-term and more radical redesign. The transition toward greater use of air taxis enables space previously used for roads to instead be used for more walkways and bikeways, as well as for trees, community gardens, etc. This should be incorporated as part of wider and longer-term planning and redesign of urban areas.

DJ....to get out of climate collapse, pandemics we urgently need to change the way we live....There can be discussion on how much time there may be...there should not be discussion on the urgent need for change....

-US plans for nuclear weapons in Finland, Taiwan, South Korea, NATO expansionism is pushing the world into the direction of nuclear war. Politicians-for-sale both in the US, UK and Europe are the main reason for growing massive public unrest. [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/massive-protest-czechs-targets-russia-sanctions-high-prices[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/massive-protest-czechs-targets-russia-sanctions-high-prices ...more sanctions on Russian diesel will further worsen the western energy crisis...solved by buying more energy from Türkiye, India, Saudi Arabia/Gulf States (made up of (mixed) Russian energy-oil/gas...Russia also -in reaction to western sanctions- increased its refinery capacity...diesel, kerosine may not be traceble to its source-get mixed with middle east fossil fuels...Outcome of the "western sanctions" is Russia selling energy no longer direct but indirect to "the west"...also the US is running out of energy...). 

-Non-Pharma-Interventions and "main stream politics/media" do not mix....pretending we can vaccinate ourselves out of-by now several- healthcrisis...while transporting all kind of diseases all over the globe....[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-taiwanese-study-shows-inhaled-ciclesonide-reduces-risk-of-mortality-and-need-for-mechanical-ventilation-in-hospitalized-covid-19-patients[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-taiwanese-study-shows-inhaled-ciclesonide-reduces-risk-of-mortality-and-need-for-mechanical-ventilation-in-hospitalized-covid-19-patients , the use of UV-C to kill virusses in a closed space, nasal/airspray vaccines are very welcome steps...but not available soon in a scale needed to restore "global public health".....








Yet new booster uptake—our only “strategy” apart from watching—is ~5% in the US, & no one seems perturbed. Politicians seem determined never to revive NPIs. They see Long Covid and...shrug. 9/

and






Gregg Gonsalves

@gregggonsalves
·
More incoherence from @WhiteHouse#LongCOVID is a problem, but we are helpless to do anything to prevent more #COVID19 cases. Just get vaccinated and pray (and yes, <5% are up-to-date on the latest boosters), so we can't even get that together. JFC. twitter.com/TIME/status/15…

remind me of

Kevin Hester

The UN said in 1989 that we had a decade to avoid dangerous climate change, they are saying the same thing 33 yrs later.

DJ....climate collapse, fiat currencies, economic inequality, healthcrises getting worse are the outcome of bad politics kicking cans down the road now for decades....Politicians, scientists, press-for sale will NOT solve our problems and only serve a rich-global-elite getting even more rich....

Pandemics are part of climate change....dealing with pandemics, climate disasters need investments in public health (it is OUR tax money !) not "privatizing" it.....

I can not discuss pandemics without underlining the basic problem is political.....(and politicians do no longer represent the people but the lobby-ists...). 

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Part 2

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero-COVID[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero-COVID

Zero-COVID, also known as COVID-Zero and "Find, Test, Trace, Isolate and Support" (FTTIS), is a public health policy that has been implemented by some countries during the COVID-19 pandemic.[1][a] In contrast to the living with COVID-19 strategy, the zero-COVID strategy is one "of control and maximum suppression".[1] It involves using public health measures such as contact tracingmass testingborder quarantinelockdowns, and mitigation software in order to stop community transmission of COVID-19 as soon as it is detected. The goal of the strategy is to get the area back to zero new infections and resume normal economic and social activities.[1][3]

A zero-COVID strategy consists of two phases: an initial suppression phase in which the virus is eliminated locally using aggressive public health measures, and a sustained containment phase, in which normal economic and social activities resume and public health measures are used to contain new outbreaks before they spread widely.[3] This strategy has been utilized to varying degrees by AustraliaBhutan,[4][5] Atlantic and Northern Canada,[6] mainland ChinaHong Kong,[7] Macau,[8] New ZealandNorth KoreaSingaporeScotland,[9] South Korea,[10] Taiwan,[11] Tonga,[12] and Vietnam.[13][14] In late 2021, due to challenges with the increased transmissibility of the Delta and Omicron variants, and also the arrival of COVID-19 vaccines, most countries stopped pursuing zero-COVID. As of October 2022, mainland China,[15] Macau,[16] and North Korea[17] are still pursuing a zero-COVID strategy.

Experts differentiate between zero-COVID, which is an elimination strategy, and mitigation strategies that attempt to lessen the effects of the virus on society, but which still tolerate some level of transmission within the community.[18][3] These initial strategies can be pursued sequentially or simultaneously during the acquired immunity phase through natural and vaccine-induced immunity.[19]

Advocates of zero-COVID have pointed to the far lower death rates and higher economic growth in countries that have pursued elimination during the first 12 months of the pandemic (i.e., prior to widespread vaccination) compared with countries that have pursued mitigation,[18] and argue that swift, strict measures to eliminate the virus allow a faster return to normal life.[18] Opponents of zero-COVID argue that "it's not realistic to eliminate a respiratory virus such as SARS-CoV-2, any more than it is to eliminate the flu or the common cold."[20] To achieve zero-COVID in an area with high infection rates, one review estimated that it would take three months of strict lockdown.[21]

DJ I tried to get a good link for Cuba...[url]https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JTF-10-2020-0187/full/html[/url] or https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JTF-10-2020-0187/full/html ...basic point in Zero CoViD is a very active government....Maybe also important testing may be mandatory, vaccinations often are NOT ! Non Pharma Interventions (masks, isolation of cases-massive testing...)  have to do the job....








Mainland #China reports 479 local symptomatic cases and 2,220 asymptomatic cases on October 30.🔼 --- #Guangdong 291 + 468🔼, most from #Guangzhou#Xinjiang 30 + 358🔼 #Heilongjiang 3 + 182🔼 #Shanxi 16 + 169🔼 #Fujian 12 + 165🔼 #InnerMongolia 18 + 113🔽 --- Source: NHC

and








JUST IN #China October official #PMI Manufacturing PMI 49.2 [Est.50.0 Prev.50.1] Non-Manufacturing PMI 48.7 [Est.50.1 Prev.50.6] Composite PMI 49.0 [Prev.50.9] #manufacturing #EconTwitter 🇨🇳 1/ Thread

yes....zero CoViD has its price...but in the US 24-30 million people may have long CoViD ...does that "price" not matter ? Does "living with CoViD" work ? Where there is NO !!!! group-immunity ? In NL  the Dutch CDC now changed the name from "Long CoViD" to an even more misleading "Post-CoViD"....."Long CoViD" may be the "normal" for lots of CoViD-cases....by now most CoViD patients will have been infected over 4 weeks ago....Denial of "long/chronic CoViD" only increases suffering !








Al-Aly is the best. “We as doctors pretty much ignored the post-viral illness for the last 100 years. We didn’t really study it, we didn’t really track it over time.” Here's to hoping the increased attention & funding for chronic post-viral illnesses is lasting.

DJ, lots of (infectious) diseases have a chronic-long term phase...the medical science world may not have known what to do with it....but has to stop claiming it is "a mental issue".....









New paper: Modeling Complex Systems: A Case Study of Compartmental Models in Epidemiology "Our purpose is to show how assumptions can constrain model outcomes to a narrow portion of the wide landscape of potential epidemic behaviors. 

Another strategy could be limiting the spread of diseases to a region-allowing lots of freedoms in (other) regions...[url]https://www.hindawi.com/journals/complexity/2022/3007864/[/url] or https://www.hindawi.com/journals/complexity/2022/3007864/ 

Again...flu may result in longer term (herd/group) immunity...the major problem with CoViD is that "immunity" is eroded away...giving room to more diseases, CoViD cases....a downward spiral...

"Living with the virus" in fact means accepting a (fast/exponential) growing healthcrisis we can NOT survive....Just like we can NOT survive climate collapse...kicking cans down the road, buying time by creating extra money (next generations, other countries have to pay for that...) has run out as a (lack of) "strategy"....

End of part 2

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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part 3

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ZegZXIMpYk[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ZegZXIMpYk ;

indie_SAGE 28.10.2022

LIVE: How does Covid affect the health of our population? Join us for a discussion, with guests Dr Rae Duncan, Dr. Graham Lloyd-Jones & Prof Nish Chaturvedi, chaired by Dr Helen Salisbury, hosted by Dr Binita Kane & numbers by Dr Duncan Robertson

with;

Time line (since I'm a layperson I've avoided medical terms afap)

 0:30 Intro Dr Helen Salisbury

 1:22  Latest stats Dr Duncan Robertson 

 11:25 Learning from radiologist Dr Graham Lloyd-Jones: blood vessels enflamed

 19:24 Learning from cardiologist Dr Rae Duncan: does recovery from infection still affect the heart?

 33:03 Learning from 48m health records: Prof Nish Traturvedi (Clinical Epidemology

 37:23 Should we be doing anything differently: panel: need to stop Reinfections; more research on effects in children; clean up the air; mask with FFP3; 

 41:10 public questions

 41:28 What is UK excess deaths since the start & how does this compare with other countries?

 44:48 Is there data to support an increase in heart problem & strokes? 

54:15 What can we do to mitigate heart &stroke risks following Covid?

 56:57 Is there a way of calculating risk in order to decide when to wear a mask?

 59:00 What protection do 5-11 yo with 2x vaccs have against new variants, especially for those who are vulnerable? 

1:01:01 Conclusion & close

DJ...very good info ! Also [url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data doing a good job in informing the public....(why the (E)CDC etc. keep doing such a bad job...). 

What we know about immune system dysfunction after covid is not just about vulnerability to infectious diseases, but also inability to stop cancers. But there is also evidence linking to cancer promotion making it a cancer promoting (oncogenic) virus.

and

Mark Ungrin

@Mark_Ungrin
·
Yeah, just not liking this at all. https://journalofinfection.com/article/S0163-4453(22)00469-8/fulltext Speaking with my professional network over the last while, it looks like the cancer people didn't know the virus does this, and the virus people didn't know what a big deal it is.

underline extra;

-a need for better medical cooperation

-STOP THE VIRUS !!!!!

Yanzhong Huang

@YanzhongHuang
·
A Chinese business consultant in a Ted-style talk justified zero-Covid policy by saying that in 10 years the West will be brought to its knees b/c long-Covid, which will decimate most of its labor force.

and








Disabled workers. Not a coincidence. #LongCovid is going to screw us over if we allow #COVID to continue to keep spreading. Downplaying COVID is tantamount to sentencing a generation to a multi-organ debilitating disease. #CovidIsNotOver

We are destroying our future....

The idea that "the virus simply will go away" is anti-science...we have been-in fact-in this pandemic for close to three years...Do we not learn anything ? 

I guess killing your own people with vaccine disinfo and ivermectin disinfo in a pandemic doesn’t help you get re-elected.  blocking me on Twitter didn’t stop his people from being angry at all the countless deaths he caused. Congrats !

End of part three...I was looking at a tweet warning there will be a wave of variants -not one longer term dominant variant- on its way....Catching one variant may NOT protect against the next one....








This is exemplified by the most recent batch of variants such as BA.2.75.2, XBB and BQ.1.1 showing resistance to nearly all approved mAbs. https://twitter.com/BenjMurrell/status/1570862197827567620
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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DJ, (part 1)

There are similarities between "wars" [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/dangerous-escalation-us-deploy-six-nuclear-capable-b-52-bombers-australia[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/dangerous-escalation-us-deploy-six-nuclear-capable-b-52-bombers-australia and pandemics...

Both "need to gain ground", may use trade-routes (Russian "flu" of 1890 followed the new Trans Siberian Railroad" [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans-Siberian_Railway[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans-Siberian_Railway ...DJ However if construction started in 1891 that railway only could have played a limited role...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1889%E2%80%931890_pandemic[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1889%E2%80%931890_pandemic story links it to other railroads, boats etc...) and "develop new ways/strategies" ....("new weapons"). In practice often pandemics and wars are mixed....Social unrest, instability resulting in wars...or wars-refugees, lack of hygiene increasing health issues....

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-hospitals-track-worst-financial-year-decades[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-hospitals-track-worst-financial-year-decades "for profit" healthcare may see a lot of bankruptcies during pandemics--in a time healthcare may be needed most.....The idea of "public healthcare" goes back to the 19th century (based on churches doing a sort of public healthcare much longer-in lots of different ways) and a.o. [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Otto_von_Bismarck#Sickness_Insurance_Law_of_1883[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Otto_von_Bismarck#Sickness_Insurance_Law_of_1883 "fighting socialism"-conservatives pushed for healthcare laws....The military did see heavy losses due to diseases....The idea of "basic public health via law" -in a history perspective- is more "right wing".....

-The idea of a government role in public well being is now much more accepted [url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/10/31/car-means-longer-travel-time-especially-outside-city-centers-planning-office[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/10/31/car-means-longer-travel-time-especially-outside-city-centers-planning-office however how the policies work out in practice is another point...(car, oil lobby much better organized then "bike-promotion" or public transport....). 

So in the CoViD pandemic what role do governments have ? What is priority ? Saving lives or profits ? How to "balance" such a strategy ? The present healthcrisis is the outcome of a wrong risk-assessment on CoViD....

There was a basic idea "infectious diseases" in 2020 are "only a limited risk"....Eventhough there have been warnings for "a next pandemic around the corner" for decades....The idea was "flu" would be the next pandemic...The "good thing" on flu is you get "group/herd immunity"....Somehow that "herdimmunity idea" became dominant in this corona-virus pandemic...even with the knowledge that corona-viral diseases in animals only could be controlled by killing all the animals....

SARS-1 in 2003 should have been seen as a warning...but less travel, better surveilance and in time actions limited SARS-1...MERS was "controlable"...so early 2020 -even with Wuhan-China in lockdown-"politics/science" underestimated the risks....

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/covid-19-universe-questions-time-universal-deceit[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/covid-19-universe-questions-time-universal-deceit may not be "the best" timeline....but the basic problem; experts/politics switching the pandemic story over and over again I think is realistic...

"Vaccinated do no longer need a mask"(biden) was non-science bla-bla....just like "do not test-do not tell" (trump) came close to insane denialism....The idea of "living with the virus" was possible because vaccines would limit most of the damage also proved to be incorrect; resulting in increase of immunity evasion (mutation selection)....NOT stopping free travel for all kinds of variants/other diseases only made matters worse...MPX is just one of the "children" CoViD out-of-control may bring...H5N1 is behaving differently (spreading all year-not just in fall) in 2022...

So we are "in for a hard time"...."politics" now pushing for wars is a "classic reaction" when a crisis runs out of control...Only makes matters worse....

One can learn a lot from history...lots of things are "not new" ...even combinations may not be new...What however is "new" is the high speed transport...any disease could go global within 24 hours....because we give it all the logistics to do so....Transport of diseases to hosts is the weak spot in pandemics...but "we" filled that gap...supplied lots of transport...STOP THE SPREAD...but we support the spread of lots of (long term) diseases "saving the economy"-while destroying that economy....

If you do not learn from the past one keeps repeating the same mistakes over and over again....that is what we-tragically-are doing...

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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part 2,

One of the -sad-conclusions for me-on part 1-is "we keep this pandemic going"....we provide a "feeding ground" for diseases -the exact opposite of what we try to reach...[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/news/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/news/ has a lot of corona-updates in latest news...but Ebola, MPX, other diseases are also making headlines...DJ-again I am NOT an expert...but combination of diseases, re-infections may do most of the damage...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/long-covid-italian-researchers-warn-that-sars-cov-2-induced-thyroid-dysfunction-can-linger-on-for-more-than-a-year[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/long-covid-italian-researchers-warn-that-sars-cov-2-induced-thyroid-dysfunction-can-linger-on-for-more-than-a-year CoViD is causing inflamation of (small) bloodvessels all over the body-causing organ damage all over the body....What looks "mild" could become a problem later on...scleroses of scars may show to be a result years after infection...may show up in hearth, lungs, brain....(and may be easy to miss if it is in "micro clots"...). 








If there's a mutation that will evade existing antibodies, this virus will find it. The speed with which  &  analyze & publish the evasion capabilities of emerging variants is astounding. It's exactly what's needed for timely updating of vaccines. 1/2

and

Yunlong Richard Cao

@yunlong_cao
·
The appearance of Y144del in those BA.5 sublineages is a really bad sign since we know this mutation is extremely good at escaping NTD-neutralizing antibodies. See below, Y144 is located at the epitope center of a specific group of NTD NAbs that are potent against BA.5.

DJ, what I understand is "lots of experts" more or less agree that "only vaccines" can not get us out of this crisis....New vaccines (oral/nasal) may offer some hope...but you need to stop the spread...I think a decrease in (general) immunity may open doors to a tsunami of other diseases....we are only at the start of this healthcrisis...much more action is urgently needed to stop a global disaster....but "we turn our heads"....

[url]https://news.yale.edu/2022/10/27/prime-and-spike-nasal-vaccine-strategy-helps-combat-covid[/url] or https://news.yale.edu/2022/10/27/prime-and-spike-nasal-vaccine-strategy-helps-combat-covid ....in itself are good news....but-again-we have been using vaccines for over a year...it did decrease CoViD-deaths AND increase immune evasion....so the picture is "mixed" at best...we need to do much better to get out of this crisis....

Ebola [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/961767-cidrap-uganda-s-ebola-cases-rise-who-ups-risk-assessment[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/961767-cidrap-uganda-s-ebola-cases-rise-who-ups-risk-assessment

Uganda's Ebola cases rise; WHO ups risk assessment

Filed Under:
Ebola;
Viral Hemorrhagic Fever
Lisa Schnirring | News Editor | CIDRAP News

Oct 31, 2022

As Ebola cases steadily rise in Uganda, with a spate of cases recently reported in Kampala, the World Health Organization (WHO) said the latest developments increase the risk to Uganda and the surrounding region.

Confirmed cases reach 128


Uganda's health ministry is now reporting 128 lab-confirmed cases, up from 109 last week. Also, officials said 34 people have died from their infections, reflecting 4 more since last week. During the early days of the outbreak, officials reported at least 20 suspected cases, all of them fatal.

The most recent two cases were reported from Kassanda district, one of seven affected areas, according to a situation report from the WHO African regional office.

The WHO said in its latest outbreak update, based on information as of Oct 26, that the case fatality rate among lab-confirmed cases is 27.8%.

It said though Uganda has experience responding to Ebola outbreaks and has taken quick actions, the lack of treatments and vaccines for the more rare Sudan Ebola strain that's fueling the outbreak poses a serious public health risk.

The WHO is revising its formal risk assessment, but said given the geographical expansion to urban settings, the risk to Uganda has been elevated from high to very high, and the risk to the region has been increased from low to high. It added that the global risk remains low.

Six neighboring countries have stepped up their readiness actions, including Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, and Tanzania.

In Uganda, outbreak responders are monitoring 1,656 contacts in 10 districts, with a follow-up rate of 88%.

DJ...one of the risks is "more cases is more mutations". Incubation-time supposed to be 3 weeks max. but 5% of cases may show longer incubation....increasing risks of further spread. Do we need more airport-health-checks ? Or should we consider a "travel reduction"-limiting travel to only essential flights ? 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/961771-cidrap-news-scan-for-oct-31-2022-spread-of-antibiotic-resistance-via-animal-transport-%C2%A0-avian-flu-in-us-mexico[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/961771-cidrap-news-scan-for-oct-31-2022-spread-of-antibiotic-resistance-via-animal-transport-%C2%A0-avian-flu-in-us-mexico ;Report highlights animal transport as risk for spread of resistant bacteria


A report last week from the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) suggests steps could be taken to limit the spread of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in food-producing animals during transportation.

Using information from international reports, scientific literature, European legislation, and expert knowledge, scientists with EFSA's Panel on Biological Hazards set out to assess the most significant risk factors associated with the spread of antimicrobial-resistant bacteria and antimicrobial-resistance genes (ARB/ARGs) among poultry, pigs, and cattle when transported from the farm to the slaughterhouse. The panel was also asked to identify preventive measures and control options that could be implemented to reduce the spread of ARB/ARGs between food-producing animals during short and long journeys, and to identify data gaps.

The assessment identified the status that resistance (the presence of ARB/ARGs) of animals pre-transport as one of the main risk factors that almost certainly contributes to the probability of ARB/ARG transmission during transport, followed by increased fecal shedding, insufficient hygiene of vehicles and equipment, exposure to other animals carrying ARB/ARGs, and duration of transport. Among the factors that likely contribute to ARB/ARG spread were airborne transmission within the vehicle, health status of the animal, and high temperature and humidity.

DJ...is it not time yet to decrease meat production/consumption ? 

End of part 2

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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DJ,

War-It looks like "RIC" (Russia-Iran-China) may wait for the outcome of nov.8 US "mid-term" elections. Hope is the outcome of these elections may push the US (and with that NATO) into "more realism". Maybe Israel elections-netanyahu back-also pushing in another direction...In Brazil Lula did not forget the US ended his rule and supported (another) fascist....

In that way it may be "quiet for the storm"....

CoViD;

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/omicron/bf-7/bf-7-another-contender-for-global-domination/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/omicron/bf-7/bf-7-another-contender-for-global-domination/ 

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/omicron/bq-1-1/preprint-neutralizing-antibody-escape-of-bq-1-bq-1-1-ba-4-6-bf-7-and-ba-2-75-2/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/omicron/bq-1-1/preprint-neutralizing-antibody-escape-of-bq-1-bq-1-1-ba-4-6-bf-7-and-ba-2-75-2/ 

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/new-emerging-sars-cov-2-variants-and-sub-lineages-such-as-bq1-1-10,-xbb-3,-ba-4-6-3-and-ch-1-1-are-taking-immune-evasion-to-a-newer-level[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/new-emerging-sars-cov-2-variants-and-sub-lineages-such-as-bq1-1-10,-xbb-3,-ba-4-6-3-and-ch-1-1-are-taking-immune-evasion-to-a-newer-level 

DJ-My non-expert view; exponential growth resulted in a "soup" of new variants able to (at the end) evade ALL immunity....

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/californian-researchers-modify-generic-drug-memantine-to-inhibit-sars-cov-2-and-treat-covid-19-issues[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/californian-researchers-modify-generic-drug-memantine-to-inhibit-sars-cov-2-and-treat-covid-19-issues better (oral/nasal) vaccines are NOT available in large enough numbers...

[url]https://fortune.com/well/2022/11/01/resurgence-deltacron-omicron-delta-covid-fall-winter-wave-coronavirus-autumn-2022-lungs-transmissibility-animals-immunocompromised/[/url] or https://fortune.com/well/2022/11/01/resurgence-deltacron-omicron-delta-covid-fall-winter-wave-coronavirus-autumn-2022-lungs-transmissibility-animals-immunocompromised/ "Delta-cron" , "Flu-Rona" will kill a lot....

On the "healthcare-defense lines"...

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/10/29/people-chronic-illnesses-disabilities-face-especially-high-energy-bills[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/10/29/people-chronic-illnesses-disabilities-face-especially-high-energy-bills also hospitals now have to decide on increasing debts or lay off workers....with healthcare demand expected to be "growing" (=exploding...). 

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/11/01/building-foundations-suffering-damage-due-climate-change[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/11/01/building-foundations-suffering-damage-due-climate-change and [url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/11/01/dutch-government-will-miss-climate-targets-even-new-plans-planning-office[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/11/01/dutch-government-will-miss-climate-targets-even-new-plans-planning-office 

DJ-[url]https://www.gelderlander.nl/arnhem-e-o/bouw-een-nieuwe-stad-bij-arnhem-zegt-deze-demograaf-waarom-br-br~a845d851/[/url] or https://www.gelderlander.nl/arnhem-e-o/bouw-een-nieuwe-stad-bij-arnhem-zegt-deze-demograaf-waarom-br-br~a845d851/ (in Dutch) The west part of NL is under sea-level...the east part above...so suggestion is to increase building houses in the east of NL....(on the long run we may have to give the west part to the sea...). More in general-lower groundwater means damage to foundations of buildings...potential damage for NL may run in the trillions....

Of course H5N1 IS already a pandemic-not yet in humans...most in birds...Ebola so far a growing risk for east/central Africa....MPX cases simply being ignored-most of the times it does not kill...

A few days ago I wrote heatwaves killing more people than hurricanes...More in general "slow processes"-certainly in combination-will kill us...CoViD becoming "endemic" does not make it "better for us"...."post"/"long"/"chronic" CoViD at the end all simply is CoViD....the acute phase may be "over" in 4 weeks most of the time...but CoViD-like diabetes etc. is a long term disease...

Fungal, bacterial infections-on top of viral ones-only worsen the perspectives....

Can we do something ????

Yes !!! We can do a lot...point however is "we" are actively spreading diseases allover the globe....STOP THE SPREAD ! Masks, limit contacts=limit spread....

There is such a lot we can do...and lots of people on an individual level do their best....but politics/government seems to be totally blind....So we will learn our lessons "the very hard way"....

A very dark part 1....I hate to write it...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Trying-in part 2-to balance "doom & gloom" from part 1...








"Another week of very significant excess deaths, continuing the pattern we’ve seen since May. In the last six months there have been 34,000 more deaths than the 2015-19 average." Excess deaths seem to have disappeared from the news cycle, but are still very much there.

and

stuart mcdonald

@ActuaryByDay
·
ONS deaths data has been released for week ending 21 Oct. 2,073 more deaths were recorded in-week compared to the 2015-19 average. That’s 21% more, which is another significant excess. Year-to-date there have been 459,819 deaths recorded which is 7% more than the 2015-19 avg.

DJ [url]https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/[/url] or https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/ excess deaths in Europe-all ages-above 2021, 2020....also US, UK excess deaths above last two pandemic years..."Dying with the virus may be doing better then living with the virus"....[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table at best may provide indication on where a new wave is starting and where it is ending....The reported "CoViD deaths" now only a tiny fraction of excess deaths...the 4 week time-limit no longer is science based....CoViD is a chronic disease...killing millions...








This is one of the many symptoms that Long Covid with POTS can cause. A heart rate over 140 BPM just from taking a shower. It can happen to anyone, vaccinated or not, & reinfections increase the risk. I wish there was something I could do to prevent others from experiencing this.

DJ








Parents, please hear me. Please. Pediatric hospitals are in an unprecedented capacity crisis. Possibly on the verge of avoidable child deaths. Please don't let your kids share indoor air w/ others tonight. Just don't. Extra candy, extra love. No parties. Why?

-









Replying to 
The data make it really plain what is happening. COVID infection is impairing immune system function in some kids for ~8 months. MANY kids have had COVID in the last 8 months. Then they get RSV or Influenza by sharing air, and their tiny bodies are simply overwhelmed. 

-

In 2008, I watched my infant son in the Sick Kids ER struggling to breathe. It was terrifying. Recalling it now is still upsetting. There was a bed for him, and his immune system wasn't damaged. Don't count on either of these today. Please keep Halloween outside this year. 3/3

Life expectency did increase in the 20th century because we managed to keep more children surviving the first years....








“So if someone is already pre-disposed to Parkinson’s, having COVID-19 could be like pouring more fuel on that ‘fire’ in the brain,” Woodruff said. “The same would apply for a predisposition for Alzheimer’s and other dementias”

Other people may age at high speed....








We've released new Nextclade SARS-CoV-2 datasets that can call all the lineages  mentions in his thread, including BQ.1.1.10. Notably, the combination S:R346T and S:Y144- has completely independently arisen in lineage BQ.1.18 and BA.4.6.3 Tree: https://next.nextstrain.org/nextclade/sars-cov-2/21L

DJ...it is good scientist try to follow mutations, (sub)variants, try to follow flu-numbers [url]https://flunewseurope.org/[/url] or https://flunewseurope.org/

For week 42/2022, of 40 countries and areas reporting on intensity of influenza activity, 31 reported baseline-intensity (across the Region), and 8 reported low-intensity (Azerbaijan, Denmark, Estonia, Hungary, Ireland, Kosovo (in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 1244 (1999)), Luxembourg and Slovenia), and 1 reported high-intensity (Malta).

 

Of 40 countries and areas reporting on geographic spread of influenza viruses, 17 reported no activity (across the Region), 17 reported sporadic spread (across the Region), 3 reported local spread (Belarus, Malta and United Kingdom (Northern Ireland)), 1 reported regional spread (Germany) and 2 reported widespread activity (Kazakhstan and United Kingdom (Scotland)).

So for most of Europe flu seems limited still...but we did have-in Europe-much to warm weather autumn/fall just started here....

End of part 2

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Maybe a part 3...twitter has its problems...








what this is saying, is that the omicron subvariant soup is continuing to evolve rapidly. The latest ones that are growing like BQ.1.1 are finding extra mutations that make them better at infecting people who recently had BA.2 (March/April) or BA.5 (July).

and 

Yunlong Richard Cao

@yunlong_cao
·
Latest update on some new convergent variants. Summary: 1. XBB, XBB.1, CH.1.1, BA.4.6.3, and BQ.1.1.10 (BQ.1.1+Y144del) are currently the most immune-evasive strains to monitor. 2. BQ.1*+NTD mutations, such as Y144del, makes them much more immune evasive. https://biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.09.15.507787v4

DJ...my (non-expert) impression, my words...CoViD going exponential....again-by massive numbers-overrunning all our defenses....


Note: 5010 SARSCoV2 sequences were uploaded from California today of which, only 214 belonged to sequences with sample collection dates in October 2022! 3187 had sample collection dates in September 2022


DJ...capacity of labs for sequencing-with very limited testing-did not increase....So do we get a real impression of where we are in this pandemic ????

#COVID19 #VariantDashboard - #UnitedStates  TOP lineages (15-DAY TRENDS): 10.6%  BA.5.2.1 9.5%   BA.5.2 8.3%   BA.4.6 6.0%   BQ.1.1 4.4%   BA.5.1 3.3%   BQ.1 2.4%   BF.10 2.3%   BF.7 2.1%   BA.5.2.9 1.9%   BA.5 Tracker: http://tinyurl.com/mryj4uu7 #OmicronUpdates 11/01/22 

DJ...to be honest...I do not know if these updates have as much relevance as they had a few months ago....








I'm pleased that case numbers & hospitalizations in many European countries have a downward trend - but hesitant to overinterpret this. #SARSCoV2 is seasonal & while that isn't entirely due to temperature, some of it is - & this season in Europe has been... quite warm!

and high speed mutations-with sequences over a month old-again means we are missing lots of info....

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa/ebola-forums/ebola-tracking-south-sudan/959915-media-south-sudan-sends-samples-of-suspected-ebola-cases-to-south-africa-for-testing-october-3-2022?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa/ebola-forums/ebola-tracking-south-sudan/959915-media-south-sudan-sends-samples-of-suspected-ebola-cases-to-south-africa-for-testing-october-3-2022?view=stream ; NIMULE -
1 NOV 20222
Ebola suspects isolated at Nimule Hospital

Health authorities in the border town of Nimule in Eastern Equatoria State have said that at least two people who presented with signs and symptoms of Ebola are currently undergoing medical investigation at Nimule Hospital.
 Ebola-spread to South Sudan ?

Flutrackers also trying to follow MPX, H5N1....enough for now...end of part 3

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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DJ, part 1,

-Let me start with the weather...[url]https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?start#contents[/url] or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?start#contents "Martin" -lppking at [url]https://www.ventusky.com/?p=62.2;-27.0;3&l=gust&t=20221117/0000[/url] or https://www.ventusky.com/?p=62.2;-27.0;3&l=gust&t=20221117/0000 dominating Atlantic weather...helping cold weather going south in North America...pushing warm weather north-even into the Arctic-in (western) Europe...Depressions splitting off may bring storms close to Ireland and Scotland...bizarre weather...NW Europe has been far to warm in october...pattern looks like we may expect a warm november...

-Pandemic-wise; flu, CoViD have "season effects"...more spread during winter (NL-CDC once calculated +10% more cases in winter -10% cases of CoViD during summer-based on the variants of 2021...So season-effect is a factor but a limited one...).

-Humans....

We are harming ourselves....from climate, economy, pandemics to wars....After NApoleon, NAzi's now NAto had to fight the Russians...Russia for the third time these hundred years with a leader who's name ends with "in"...(after len-in, stal-in now put-in...)....Napoleon, nazi's were beaten by the winter...NATO will face the Russian winter soon....Some people never learn....

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-scientists-warn-that-imprinted-sars-cov-2-humoral-immunity-is-inducing-convergent-omicron-rbd-evolution-at-an-unprecedented-rate[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-scientists-warn-that-imprinted-sars-cov-2-humoral-immunity-is-inducing-convergent-omicron-rbd-evolution-at-an-unprecedented-rate ....Receptor Binding Domain....What happens when you try to stop a virus disease by massive use of non-sterilizing vaccines ? Fail to use further NPI ? You push for selection-by-mutation resulting in variants much better in evading immunity...The TMN article mentioned there were warnings for that november 2020....

DJ-Of course one can think of strategies to deal with pandemics....point is governments do not seem to be willing to seriously stop pandemics....

On fiat-currencies [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/political/can-dollar-once-again-be-anchored-gold-one-congressman-believes-it-can[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/political/can-dollar-once-again-be-anchored-gold-one-congressman-believes-it-canThe first section of the bill establishes the need for a return to a gold-backed US dollar. For example, it is said that the US dollar—or more precisely, the bill refers to “Federal Reserve Notes”—that is, banknotes issued by the US Federal Reserve (Fed)—has lost its purchasing power on a massive scale in the past: Since 2000, it has dropped by 30 percent, and since 1913 by 97 percent. 

-

As of August 2022, the stock of US cash (“currency in circulation”) amounted to $2,276.3 billion. Assuming that the official physical gold holdings of the US Treasury amount to 261.5 million troy ounces, and the market expected US cash to be backed by the official US gold stock, a gold price of about $8,700 per troy ounce would result. This would correspond to a 418 percent increase compared to the current gold price of $1,680. If, however, the market were to expect the entire US money supply M2 to be covered by the official US gold stock, then the price of gold would move toward $83,000 per troy ounce—an increase of 4.840 percent compared to the current gold price. Needless to say, such an appreciation of gold has far-reaching consequences.

DJ...simply printing/creating money to "solve problems" has its limits.....The "west" is in a "mega-mix" of problems;

-fiat currencies (dollar, pound, Euro, Yen)

-climate collapse/change to other sources of energy

-pandemic strategy is failing (ZeroCoViD is "communist" but may be working...)

-NATO-guns/coups do not impress BRICS, SCO etc...

-Politics disconnected of the population....

In history "nothing is new"....1776 US revolution, 1789 French revolution-as an outcome of failing strategies by a (small) elite....DJ-Point is "revolutions" do not solve the problem...only "may open the door" (blocked by an elite). Most "revolutions' simply result in another elite....

Defining the problems can help solving them.....you first need to know what the problems are-how they "mix"...Inflation may do more damage to healthcare then a pandemic...restoring trust in a political system may be essential....(and a very bad pandemics-wave may kill the last trust...)

It is high time to start solving problems...kicking cans down the road, buying time made matters worse....A government has a MAJOR role in solving problems...We learned that in the 19th century..."neo-liberalism-phantasies" simply ignored history....

So let me end part 1 with optimism...We CAN GET OUT ! "Something better change"....

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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part 2,

Bob Elliott

@BobEUnlimited
·
Every past tightening cycle since the 50s ended when the Fed Funds rate was well above core inflation. Core inflation is running around 6.0% and isn't declining any time soon.  The peak Fed Funds rate priced into markets is around 4.75%.

DJ...it is the economy....without a functioning economy no healthcare...."saving the economy" resulted in hundreds of millions-worldwide-"long" CoViD cases...(DJ Maybe we need to redefine "CoViD"...by now most CoViD-patients worldwide will be "long"CoViD patients...much more a long term, chronic, illness...not a max-4 week disease...). 

Eric Feigl-Ding

@DrEricDing
·
BOOM—Supreme Court rules: The TSA does have the authority to require mask wearing in a new ruling that allows TSA to require masks to be worn on public transportation, including planes, trains, and buses. 59% of public supports it. ➡️ Let’s #BringBackMasks https://forbes.com/sites/suzannerowankelleher/2022/11/01/supreme-court-allows-tsa-to-issue-mask-mandates/

DJ...masks may save more lives then vaccines...Limiting travel to only essential would save even more lives...Better (nasal/oral) vaccines, medication, knowledge also will help...

Another question is "can we live with CoViD" ? My non-expert answer is "NO"...CoViD is mutating that fast it can become a massive killer if it is allowed room....We did underestimate CoViD much to long..."fake statistics-excess deaths" trying to deny the "long"CoViD link is lying to ourselves....








This study on vaccination, boosters, and Omicron reinfection found a higher rate of reinfection in subjects with a vaccine booster than those with only two doses. Given the high likelihood it will be misinterpreted, what do the results really mean?https://covid.dropcite.com/articles/1707e2df-cfe2-4631-9050-3097c99a1208

link [url]https://covid.dropcite.com/articles/1707e2df-cfe2-4631-9050-3097c99a1208[/url] or https://covid.dropcite.com/articles/1707e2df-cfe2-4631-9050-3097c99a1208 (a bit long...may point to how vaccine/booster immunity works...








NHS England in worse place now than in early days of Covid, says boss

link [url]https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/nov/02/nhs-england-in-worse-place-now-than-in-early-days-of-covid-says-boss?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other[/url] or https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/nov/02/nhs-england-in-worse-place-now-than-in-early-days-of-covid-says-boss?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other DJ-proberbly global, less staff, less money, higher costs=decrease of capacity....


This week on a Georgia   physician group -  “this morning there were no PICU beds in GA, AL, TN, FL or SC for us to transfer kids to. We were boarding PICU patients.”

DJ The idea CoViD was not a risk for children was wrong....often they simply never got tested-so "yes" limited cases were detected...but we were/are not looking....

Ebola;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/961985-cidrap-uganda-reports-more-ebola-cases-and-deaths[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/961985-cidrap-uganda-reports-more-ebola-cases-and-deaths ;

Nov 02, 2022

Uganda over the past few days has reported 2 more Ebola cases, along with 9 more deaths, raising the confirmed totals to 130 cases, 43 of them fatal, the World Health Organization (WHO) Uganda country office said in its latest updates.

Officials have also reported 21 suspected cases, all of them fatal, from earlier in the outbreak. The event began in early September, and the virus may have been circulating for as long as 3 weeks before the first case was detected. The outbreak involves the rarer Sudan Ebola strain, for which there are no approved treatments or vaccines.

Young girl infected


The two latest cases were in Kassanda, one of seven affected districts. One involves a 9-year-old girl, and no details were available about the other patient. Both were contacts of known cases.

Regarding the latest deaths, three were reported as part of case management data reconciliation. Of the other six, five were reported from Mubende, one of the main hot spots. The other involved a patient who died at an Ebola treatment center in Entebbe. The case-fatality rate among lab-confirmed patients is 33%.

Outbreak responders are have identified 1,777 contacts across eight districts, and 87% of them are under monitoring.

17 cases in Kampala

At a WHO briefing today, Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, PhD, said Mubende is still the most affected district, but cases have recently risen in two neighboring districts. He said that, so far, 17 cases have been confirmed in Kampala, the country's capital and largest city.

"Although these cases are linked to known clusters, the very fact that there are cases in a densely populated city underscores the very real risk of further transmission, and the very urgent need for increased readiness in districts and surrounding countries," Tedros said.

He also added that the WHO yesterday released an additional $5.7 million from its emergency contingency fund to further support the response.

DJ [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Uganda_Ebola_outbreak[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Uganda_Ebola_outbreak 151 cases 64 deaths...See also [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa/ebola-forums/ebola-uganda/959023-uganda-declares-ebola-virus-disease-outbreak-sebov-20-sept-2022?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa/ebola-forums/ebola-uganda/959023-uganda-declares-ebola-virus-disease-outbreak-sebov-20-sept-2022?view=stream latest...DJ The Uganda ebola outbreak is seen as ΅high risk" for the region-WHO-low risk worldwide...we did not expect [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory going global...most MPX cases NEVER did see testing....Ebola incubation up to three weeks-however 5% may be 3 weeks+....symptoms may-in first stages-look like CoViD...

....STOP THE SPREAD......End of part 2

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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DJ, 

In latest news I put a link to [url]https://www.sciencealert.com/new-hybrid-virus-discovered-as-flu-and-rsv-fuse-into-single-pathogen[/url] or https://www.sciencealert.com/new-hybrid-virus-discovered-as-flu-and-rsv-fuse-into-single-pathogen -in fact a lab study.....Very likely such studies are done in the highest safety (cat.4) bio-labs....Is there a use for these kind of studies? Yes-I think "gain of function" studies can tell us a lot on risks...May give direction to where to look for prevention...because we do not live in a risk-free world...

However-bio-labs with high level of safety are very expensive....There are lots of "stories" on outsourcing high risk-studies to "other countries"...(There is a claim the US did cooperate with Wuhan-China labs on corona-virus studies. I do not know if China or the US initiated such study there...It may be both countries combined studies on potential corona diseases-to limit costs...Is CoViD-19 "lab made"...we did not see that discussion on SARS-1 in 2003....). 

Since [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biosafety_level[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biosafety_level "4"labs are very limited and expensive it could be tempting to do part of the study in lower cost-less bio-safe-labs....

Just like test-animals, high risk studies should be as limited as possible....We may need still some of that...but computer modeling could replace a lot of risks...

The other side of this story is "lots of high risk mixing"is taking place outside labs....Wich brings us to "here and now"...

-My town of Arnhem now has over 1% of its population coming from Ukraine...(places around Arnhem have much less refugees...). The refugees are housed in cruiseships, old schools, cabins...Places now not in use because of the unfolding economic crises...The housing crisis in  NL is getting worse...It would be very welcome if we stopped wars...Enabled people safety where they live-being a refugee is not "fun"....

Ukrainians-under EU rules-are allowed to work...other refugees do not have that right...Before getting a refugee-status lots of western governments mistreat refugees...Those governments do not have problems in turning people into refugees-via climate change, wars....but also do not care if thousends of people die in the Mediterranean, US deserts...drug gangs...

Morality and (western) politics do not mix...This may also explain the "pandemic strategy" resulting in excess deaths far above prepandemic levels....

There is an energy crisis-for now most in Europe....But some people have solar-power,  district heating-system (burning garbage) see energy costs much lower then people living in "monumental" houses-no solar panels allowed...We do get compensation for higher energy prices...at the end we pay for those compensations (a.o. with higher inflation) ourselves....

-The coming crash...

When your car runs out of fuel you go to a petrolstation nearby...However if they do no longer accept payment in your currency you still have a problem...

Western society is running out of most of its energy...gas stations no longer accept their currencies...So-when we run out of reserves we have a very major problem...

I expect it to be worse then the fall of the Soviet Union was for Russia...in history terms it may be close to the fall of the Western Roman Empire...Like most historic processes the underlying story has been going on for decades...Do you base your currency on gold ? Can you widen it with energy ? Or do you end up in a western [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enron_scandal#Causes_of_downfall[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enron_scandal#Causes_of_downfall ? "Currencies based on expected future economic growth"...(enforced by NATO...).

The West Roman empire ended for lots of reasons...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fall_of_the_Western_Roman_Empire#Military,_financial,_and_political_ineffectiveness:_the_process_of_failure[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fall_of_the_Western_Roman_Empire#Military,_financial,_and_political_ineffectiveness:_the_process_of_failure 

-Slaves may not be the most motivated workforce...inequality became unacceptable (rise of christianity may have been a factor...)

-The military did see lots of "extra forces" not friendly to the Romans...(Germans willing to go for training, food...but at the end fight against the Romans...).

-Corruption means funds NOT going where they are needed...

-Politics in the hand of an elite out of touch with reality...

-To many enemies, to little friends...

So-what should "the west" expect ? NATO, EU, US, UK may still exist but become "empty shells" -regions/cities may be doing most of the work...

Barter, exchange-of-goods-trades may (more and more) replace a (broken) financial system...

When the Soviet Union ended Gorbachov was more popular in most of the west then in Russia/the Soviet Union...The "west" is not very popular any longer among "the rest"...

And of course "pandemics are NOT over"...climate collapse is a lot worse compared to 1991/end of the Soviet Union...

But again-different regions of the west may face different outcomes....Choices do matter...

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bGZJfVR9-wo[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bGZJfVR9-wo Dr. John Campbell;   

Excess deaths continue

   DJ...also [url]https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps[/url] or https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps very clear on excess deaths in 2022 above previous years...Dr.J.C. wondering why it is not headline news....DJ-Media-for-sale, politics-for-sale, science-for-sale....In the present pandemics TWO main factors;

-Disease-Transport-Hosts  (we fail to stop transport-STOP THE SPREAD !!!)

-Exponential growth (in all directions) so we now face a CoViD-variants "soup", MPX, flu, Ebola, Cholera, TB(C)....decrease of immunity...

DJ-A third factor may be a wrong idea on "long" CoViD...most present cases are "long"CoViD....must be hundreds of millions worldwide...For that matter "long CoViD simply is CoViD"...the idea that 4 weeks would result in "post-CoViD" is anti-science....(the term "post CoViD" is a lie...). CoViD can do lots of long term (organ) damage...worse-CoViD-virus may be hiding in the body...still sticking to "28 days" with excess deaths due to organ damage is foolish !

-Of course -with the present insanity as a rule- the "way out of these (climate, healthcare, economic) crises" may be nuclear war....We deserve better leaders..not the present crazy ones....

End of part 1



We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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part 2

-Statistics [url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data UK CoViD cases decreasing...based on self reporting. [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table global cases -17%, deaths -19%...in real numbers; global REPORTED/TESTED cases last week 2,551,281...last 7 days 2,105,615....Deaths went from 10,565 to 8,549 in the last 7 days being reported as CoViD death...Of course excess deaths now even higher then in 2020, 2021 simply indicate we may be working with incorrect definitions, ideas....

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory MPX now put at a total of 78,000 cases, 202 deaths...(lots of underreporting...most cases may recover...resulting in a form of immunity...) [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/962067-cidrap-study-suggests-substantial-before-symptom-spread-of-monkeypox[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/962067-cidrap-study-suggests-substantial-before-symptom-spread-of-monkeypox DJ-Labeling it as a gay-disease only decreased further a willingness for testing...[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/central-america/emerging-diseases-other-health-threats-ab/954520-central-america-2022-monkeypox?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/central-america/emerging-diseases-other-health-threats-ab/954520-central-america-2022-monkeypox?view=stream new cases are reported daily...

On Ebola [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Uganda_Ebola_outbreak[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Uganda_Ebola_outbreak did miss [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/news/23-infected-with-ebola-after-exhuming-a-body/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/news/23-infected-with-ebola-after-exhuming-a-body/ ;

23 people have been infected with Ebola in Uganda in after illegally exhuming a body to conduct religious rights.

“About two weeks ago, our teams buried someone in Kalwana Village, Kikandwa Sub-county, who had succumbed to Ebola but the locals waited for them to leave and at night, they exhumed the body and performed burial rituals on it. Since bodies of those who have died from Ebola are highly infectious, many people were infected,” Dr Bwire told a meeting on Ebola response in the district yesterday.

He said following the exhumation, 23 confirmed cases were registered out of the total 42 in the district, adding that 546 contacts were traced out of that burial.

Monitor.ug report

and [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/news/uganda-bus-passenger-suddenly-dies-of-ebola/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/news/uganda-bus-passenger-suddenly-dies-of-ebola/ ;

The Monitor newspaper are reporting that a bus passenger has suddenly died of Ebola in the Soroti district of eastern Uganda.

Police in Soroti District are investigating circumstances under which a passenger suddenly died aboard a Gateway bus on Thursday.

Mr Oscar Ageca, the regional police spokesperson for East Kyoga said Oscar Ocen, a security guard at Saracen security group, was travelling from Kampala to his home village in Abim District but died suddenly in Soroti District before reaching his final destination.

The shocking incident forced police to quarantine all the other passengers at the bus park pending further investigations. 

Monitor report

DJ...WHO expecting further spread in East/Central Africa...

On CoViD [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-researchers-present-case-reports-of-long-covid-patients-with-persistence-of-residual-sars-cov-2-antigen-and-rna-in-various-tissues[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-researchers-present-case-reports-of-long-covid-patients-with-persistence-of-residual-sars-cov-2-antigen-and-rna-in-various-tissues the idea that when you test-after infection-nasal/oral swabs you will learn if "the virus is gone" is non-sense...anti-science...

Of course H5N1 [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N1#Transmission_and_host_range[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N1#Transmission_and_host_range is a major worry...with lots of other flu-types...Flu-Rona should be "coming to a place near you"...why not ? 

What DOES work !!!!

-Ventilation-limit viral load the best you can-works for lots of diseases !

-Masks-try to keep the virus/disease out of your body (eye protection in higher risk settings) -also helping against lots of diseases !

-Honest information, good communication is essential !

-Stop the spread; travel, mass events !

-Vaccines may boost immunity-in general...however if a flu-vaccines limits CoViD disease may be open-given lots of new variants/re/co-infections...

End of part 2

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Part 3...twitter...








Some perspective for those who still don't get it: If I were forced to be infected by either HIV or COVID, I would choose HIV without hesitation.

this is a major difference with flu...(but try to avoid HIV !








We can all applaud the scientific breakthroughs that allow people living with HIV to survive and thrive. But the idea that someone would ‚rather contract HIV than SARS-2‘ is a product of the most warped misunderstanding of COVID perpetuated in a weird online subculture. Ignore.)
Andrew Ewing

@AndrewEwing11
·
Immunity debt vs post covid immune deficiency (PCID). Not an immunology expert, but here are 25 papers/articles that collectively argue for PCID. Immunity debt is a made up term that reflects poor science. 🧵

There may be discussion on how to name it...

"After COVID is done and gone, you are more susceptible to other kinds of infections, and that may well be a bigger problem in children." - 

link [url]https://edmonton.ctvnews.ca/more-than-12-000-students-absent-from-edmonton-schools-due-to-illness-1.6137246[/url] or https://edmonton.ctvnews.ca/more-than-12-000-students-absent-from-edmonton-schools-due-to-illness-1.6137246 ;

The number of Edmonton public students absent from school because of illness is at a level not seen since the Omicron COVID-19 wave in January.

On Tuesday, 8,237 students throughout the city were absent due to illness, representing about 7.54 per cent of Edmonton Public Schools' total student body. The number went up by about 500 on Wednesday. The absentee rate for the Edmonton Catholic Schools District was even higher, at 9.6 per cent.

On its website, the public division categorizes student absences as either COVID-19 related or cases of "other illness."

Only a small percentage of families are reporting that their child is sick with COVID-19 or a close contact: 0.06 per cent on Tuesday, and 0.07 per cent on Wednesday. The rest of absences were categorized as other illness.


DJ-Post CoViD Immune Deficiency (PCID) -I think- could be the reason why MonkeyPoX (MPX) did get out of control...may also influence other diseases-resulting in much more (exponential) growth of all kinds of disease (up to cancers...). 








U.S. COVID update: Number in hospital rises 4 days in a row - New cases: 21,205 - Average: 39,199 (-527) - States reporting: 15/50 - In hospital: 27,993 (+197) - In ICU: 3,210 (+55) - New deaths: 325 - Average: 364 (+20)

10

97

228


DJ...by now it may be impossible to get a full understanding of how CoViD changed the world...I think a lot of people limit contacts-still-making it harder to see if cases going down is related to boosters or change of behavior. 

[url]https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05398-2[/url] or https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05398-2 ;

Despite notable scientific and medical advances, broader political, socioeconomic and behavioural factors continue to undercut the response to the COVID-19 pandemic1,2. Here we convened, as part of this Delphi study, a diverse, multidisciplinary panel of 386 academic, health, non-governmental organization, government and other experts in COVID-19 response from 112 countries and territories to recommend specific actions to end this persistent global threat to public health. The panel developed a set of 41 consensus statements and 57 recommendations to governments, health systems, industry and other key stakeholders across six domains: communication; health systems; vaccination; prevention; treatment and care; and inequities. In the wake of nearly three years of fragmented global and national responses, it is instructive to note that three of the highest-ranked recommendations call for the adoption of whole-of-society and whole-of-government approaches1, while maintaining proven prevention measures using a vaccines-plus approach2 that employs a range of public health and financial support measures to complement vaccination. Other recommendations with at least 99% combined agreement advise governments and other stakeholders to improve communication, rebuild public trust and engage communities3 in the management of pandemic responses. The findings of the study, which have been further endorsed by 184 organizations globally, include points of unanimous agreement, as well as six recommendations with >5% disagreement, that provide health and social policy actions to address inadequacies in the pandemic response and help to bring this public health threat to an end.

DJ...by now most experts agree the need for more then "vaccines only"...In my opinion the main problem is "political"...Science may see CoViD by now as a major problem-does take infectious diseases serious. Politics fail to see it that way...








📍OLD : 73% recommended to mask 📍CURRENT : Just 2% recommended to mask Meanwhile,  says airlines can force workers to get back to work flights after 5 days without testing… but Walensky herself still at home after 2 weeks. Good for her, bad for us.

...this is NOT a strategy...but a sad joke!

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AXQhByJdiAA[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AXQhByJdiAA Indie-SAGE with weekly update.

End of part 3

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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DJ, 

War [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escobar-berlin-goes-beijing-real-deal[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escobar-berlin-goes-beijing-real-deal Germany/EU visiting China to see an end to the Ukraine war/global tensions...(may indicate changing to China for trade...distancing from US/UK).

Storms [url]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#97L[/url] or https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#97L , [url]https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5[/url] or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5 and [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Storm_names[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Storm_names "Nicole" and "Owen" forming ? Very bizarre for november....

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/warning-adults-can-also-contract-rsv-infections-and-its-usually-severe-in-the-aged-is-the-current-rvs-wave-due-to-newly-emerged-strains[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/warning-adults-can-also-contract-rsv-infections-and-its-usually-severe-in-the-aged-is-the-current-rvs-wave-due-to-newly-emerged-strains DJ-see also [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Respiratory_syncytial_virus#Signs_and_symptoms[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Respiratory_syncytial_virus#Signs_and_symptoms risk is in combination with Flu and/or CoViD....

France urged to return to mask wearing by the National Academy of Medicine due to co-circulation of COVID and flu

DJ...masks limit risks....

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/11/05/100-climate-activists-arrested-blocking-private-jets-schiphol[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/11/05/100-climate-activists-arrested-blocking-private-jets-schiphol ;

Over 100 climate activists protesting at Schiphol on Saturday broke onto the runway to block private jets from taking off. The Royal Netherlands Marechaussee has arrested hundreds of the protesters, according to the ANP. More arrests are not ruled out.

The activists are from Greenpeace and Extinction Rebellion, according to Extinction Rebellion on Twitter. A spokesperson said the goal is not to allow any of the jets to take off, according to De Telegraaf.

DJ...private jets increased during the pandemic...what is the point of talks on climate change, healthcrises if you INcrease flying ????? Absurd !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 06 2022 at 11:35pm

DJ, 

My goal was/is to get some idea of "what is happening" -both pandemic and background (economy, war)...I have to admit I find it harder and harder to get a view on it....

On the background-war and economy do mix. Economic problems do mean problems for-already exhausted, overstretched, healthcare...To make things "political"....ALL parties may create more problems then answers....so who to vote for....

[url]https://www.independentsage.org/[/url] or https://www.independentsage.org/ answered some questions on CoViD and immunity....No indication for long term decrease of immunity ? (So is "Post CoViD Immunity Deficiency" a real issue...how big is it ?) My (non-science) "idea' Monkeypox/MPX may be related to CoViD has no proof ? 

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table may give some indications on increase of cases in East Asia/Oceania (Indonesia cases +56%...in between Malaysia-cases +52% [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/news/malaysia-experiencing-small-xbb-wave/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/news/malaysia-experiencing-small-xbb-wave/ and Australia cases +12%...Papua New Guinea cases +142% may have very limited testing...). 

Thailand cases "+516,600 %" 0 cases last week-5,166 last 7 days....not very usefull statistics...Cases going up as well in Central/East Africa...with Ebola a major problem in Uganda-growing risk in the region...51 countries reporting an increase of cases...Most of Europe -after high numbers-see cases going down...36 countries reporting an increase of CoViD deaths...however excess deaths above previous years may be worldwide....

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory may reach 100,000 tested confirmed cases this week...if there is testing and reporting....

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Uganda_Ebola_outbreak#Epidemiology[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Uganda_Ebola_outbreak#Epidemiology may be even more problematic in getting testing, reporting....

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avian_influenza[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avian_influenza is a major problem...In most countries "bird flu" was seasonal-linked to migrating birds...2022 did see all year round cases...more or less all over the globe. Limited spread-so far-into mammals-foxes, dogs, (cats ?) eating infected birds...limited human cases...Once a mammal gets "bird flu" often it does-still-not spread that easy...The big problem is it may be just a few mutations away from spreading...with a very high risk for that kind of mutations given the (hundreds of) millions of cases of "bird flu" this year...Also CoViD symptoms and "bird flu"symptoms may look the same...with low testing it may be easy to see "bird flu" spreading and a wrong idea that it is a new form of CoViD escaping testing....Some experts claim H5N1-pandemic is no longer "if" but "when".....

-This brings me to healthcare, prevention...politics....

Some "politicians" claim to "have solved problems" when-at best-they are playing word games...Vaccines against CoViD may have-short term-saved millions of lives...however-long term-resulted in more immunity evasion...Vaccines are NOT the "magic bullet" making "living with the virus" a reality...excess deaths-while lots of people still go for Non Pharma Interventions by themselves (avoiding crowds, masks-in-supermarket etc.) indicate the "pandemic" simply only is getting worse...Not fitting in all kind of political bla-bla...empty words...

For that matter this pandemic looks a lot like "climate change" (collapse is change...word-games...) ....Lots of empty words-problems only getting worse...Fiat-currencies is the same story...maybe one could-short term- solve a small problem by creating some extra money....The West has been creating money out of thin air for decades and expects the rest of the world to accept that-pay the bills..."or else NATO intervention/regime change".....

You do NOT solve problems by denying them....however most politicians go for denial-strategies...So "learning the hard way"...

Is there a way out ? 

YES !!!! We create very complex rules...we do most of the damage to ourselves...A main reason we are STILL in this CoViD pandemic (okay-call it "endemic" it is still resulting in very high excess deaths...) is we keep offering free travel for all kinds of CoViD-variants, MPX etc....

If people die from CoViD that is bad...with-by now-very likely hundreds of millions of "long CoViD" cases "saving the economy" is destroying the economy....(If you look at the ME-CFS story-lots of people will have live-long health issues...). 

Facing problems may be wiser then denying them....and yes-"damage control" may be the only option left....but we could/should try to limit more damage the best we can...

End of part 1...maybe some twitter later on...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 07 2022 at 10:58pm

DJ,

With hurricane "Nicole" [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avian_influenza[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avian_influenza (among lots of others...) there may still be some fluctuations...It may move over Florida a bit more north or south in the night 9-10 november...It may stay over the gulf a bit shorter/longer and then be pushed NE maybe faster/slower...maybe catching some extra energy over the Atlantic...bringing more rain to New York/US East Coast at the end of the week...

But-"Nicole" in november itself being "bizarre"...it will be over within a week...The bigger picture is [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/us-natgas-futures-jump-frigid-weather-set-swoop-across-country[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/us-natgas-futures-jump-frigid-weather-set-swoop-across-country crazy weather overstretching energy supplies...

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/11/06/study-people-financial-problems-far-likely-anxious-depressed[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/11/06/study-people-financial-problems-far-likely-anxious-depressed of course stress is causing a lot of health issues...And healthcare is "in crisis"....low on staff, facing impossible energy/housing costs...

One should keep an eye on the socio-economic background in a pandemic...A strong economy is much better in dealing with healthcrises then an economy in such a major crisis (as the outcome of foolish politics...). 

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/news/lancet-herd-immunity-is-a-dangerous-fallacy-unsupported-by-scientific-evidence/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/news/lancet-herd-immunity-is-a-dangerous-fallacy-unsupported-by-scientific-evidence/

Uncontrolled transmission in younger people risks significant morbidity and mortality across the whole population.

In addition to the human cost, this would impact the workforce as a whole and overwhelm the ability of health-care systems to provide acute and routine care. Furthermore, there is no evidence for lasting protective immunity to SARS-CoV-2 following natural infection, and the endemic transmission that would be the consequence of waning immunity would present a risk to vulnerable populations for the indefinite future.

Continues at the Lancet

DJ...still "herd immunity (via infection/vaccination) seems to be "the strategy" ....as if CoViD was a flu...wich it is NOT ! 

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/news/childrens-hospitals-across-canada-overwhelmed-by-covid-rsv-flu/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/news/childrens-hospitals-across-canada-overwhelmed-by-covid-rsv-flu/ ;

In an interview with CTV News Channel on Wednesday, Bruce Squires, president of McMaster Children’s Hospital, said the hospital’s in-patient occupancy was approaching 135 per cent.

Squires attributed the situation at his hospital to the culmination of several factors, including the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and a “significant spike” of viral infections, including RSV and influenza. Pandemic-related delays for specialized pediatric treatments, he said, have also led to an influx of young patients who are sicker than they should be.

More in this CTVnews report

DJ...lots of countries see high number of children with illnesses..."Children only get mild CoViD" non-sense resulted in NOT testing children...(so-indeed-hardly any children being reported with coved...circle going round...). 

Another aspect is "co-spread" of CoViD, RSV, flu....it is unclear how this could work....[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/who-issues-warning-about-fungal-pathogens-that-are-a-global-health-threat-including-candida-auris,-mucorales-and-many-others[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/who-issues-warning-about-fungal-pathogens-that-are-a-global-health-threat-including-candida-auris,-mucorales-and-many-others 

DJ-It may the mix of all kind of diseases that may do most of the killing...

I am NOT a scientist/expert...but I think there may be a relation between [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African_swine_fever_virus#2018-2020_African_swine_fever_panzootic[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African_swine_fever_virus#2018-2020_African_swine_fever_panzootic and the CoViD pandemic in fact starting during the ASF-panzootic...(in 2019)  was CoViD co-spreading (as a then minor disease) in pigs ? 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panzootic[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panzootic ;

panzootic (from Greek παν pan all + ζόιον zoion animal) is an epizootic (an outbreak of an infectious disease of animals) that spreads across a large region (for example a continent), or even worldwide. The equivalent in human populations is called a pandemic.

A panzootic can start when three conditions have been met:

  • the emergence of a disease new to the population.
  • the agent infects a species and causes serious illness.
  • the agent spreads easily and sustainably among animals.

A disease or condition is not a panzootic merely because it is widespread or kills a large number of animals; it must also be infectious. For example, cancer is responsible for a large number of deaths but is not considered a panzootic because the disease is, generally speaking, not infectious. Unlike an epizootic, a panzootic covers all or nearly all species over a large surface area (ex. rabies, anthrax). Typically an enzootic or an epizootic, or their cause, may act as a potential preparatory factor .[1]

DJ wich of course leads to [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panzootic#Persistence_of_H5N1_Avian_Influenza[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panzootic#Persistence_of_H5N1_Avian_Influenza ; Presently, the highly pathogenic Asian strain of Avian Influenza is still continuing to kill poultry and wild birds alike on panzootic scales. The persistence of such a pathogen in the environment would only lead to a further continuation of panzootic scale eliminations of birds. To try to control this, scientists did research involving the shed feathers of domestic ducks to test the prevalence of H5N1. Although viral persistence was notably found within drinking water and feces, the feathers exhibited the most remaining H5N1 strain for up to 160 days.[5] The persistence exhibited through the feathers indicates the potential for environmental contamination of not only H5N1, but also other untested viruses.

DJ...H5N1 does infect mammals however so far only limited with hardly any spread...maybe another "bird flu type" may be more of a risk ? Co-infections of H5N1 and other diseases (in immune compromised persons) may see a more risky variant ? 

CoViD itself is "mutating" like crazy...moving away from immunity protection...the mix of several infectious diseases with healthcare under pressure makes coming winter "problematic"...

end of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 08 2022 at 2:19am

part 2, 

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/africa/kenya/kenya-beta-like-sars-cov-2-variant-found-after-1-yr-of-disappearance/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/africa/kenya/kenya-beta-like-sars-cov-2-variant-found-after-1-yr-of-disappearance/ ;

A preprint out today gives details of a Beta-like SARS-CoV-2 variant with additional mutations recently found in Kenya.

We report identification a Beta VOC-like sequence in coastal Kenya with 22 additional mutations some of which have been identified in other VOCs. This finding suggests that some of the previous SARS-CoV-2 VOCs that have been undetected for months may be still in circulation in communities albeit at low frequencies.

We observed a Beta-like sequence with additional six synonymous and 16 non-synonymous mutations within the ORF1ab, ORF3a, M, and S genes. The mutations were observed in the consensus genome from both the ONT and Illumina platforms. The additional mutations observed were predominantly seen within the Delta and Omicron VOC lineages and non-VOC lineages including B.1.1.456 and B.1.1.374. The additional alleles observed in the newly sequenced samples had sufficient read depth (>90%) compared to the Wuhan reference.

Preprint: Detection of a SARS-CoV-2 Beta-like Variant with Additional Mutations in Coastal Kenya after >1 Year of Disappearance 

DJ "Delta-Cron" recently showed up again [url]https://fortune.com/well/2022/11/01/resurgence-deltacron-omicron-delta-covid-fall-winter-wave-coronavirus-autumn-2022-lungs-transmissibility-animals-immunocompromised/[/url] or https://fortune.com/well/2022/11/01/resurgence-deltacron-omicron-delta-covid-fall-winter-wave-coronavirus-autumn-2022-lungs-transmissibility-animals-immunocompromised/ it is very likely "older variants" do not fully go away...may stay in a host (human or other animal) and develop further....It can become problematic again later on....

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table Kenya cases +61% with very low testing...(398 cases detected last week-641 last 7 days...). In most of the world most (recent) CoViD cases are simply missed....

-China/Zero CoViD ;








China reports 7,691 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase since April

statistics see China cases +75% (with still low numbers-2,376 last week up to 4,164 last 7 days...). Asia cases +14%, Oceania +3% with Malaysia (+41%) Indonesia (+57%) linked to Australia (+6%)...Papua New Guinea cases-low testing-+20%. 

-Medical intervention;

New key results on Paxlovid from ; Reduction by 25% in long Covid effects, 50% in post acute deaths, 30% in post acute hospitalization. Long covid effects down 9.4% to 7.1% during 30-90 days 1/ Nirmatrelvir and Risk of Post-Acute Sequelae of COVID https://medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.11.03.22281783v1

-

Long covid effects down from 9.4% to 7.1% during 30-90 days Deaths down from 0.6% to 0.3% during 30-90 days. Hospitalizations down from ~3.8% to ~2.6% during 30-90 days. Note effects do not stop, there will be more events after 90 days because curves don't become flat

DJ "living with the virus" would be possible if we can limit damage to health...we are not there yet !


They say that truth is the first casualty of war.  In the battle against #COVID19 the first casualty was almost certainly trust. Trust in science. Trust in governments. Trust in each other. This is why whole-of-society approaches are needed #PowerInNumbers https://go.nature.com/3NtcfCM

Even with "politics" pushing another story....

UK

Latest ONS death registration data out: Good to see that Covid deaths in England & Wales (i.e. with Covid on the deaths certificate) have peaked, reflecting combo of falling infections and increasing boosters in early October. 1/2

and

However, the worrying excess in *all-cause* deaths continues (about half of excess is Covid) which has been there since spring. Data here: https://ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending28october2022… 

DJ, a major other factor-hard to calculate/estimate is people limiting contacts/risks when news reports increase of (CoViD/Flu etc) cases....








I'm two months into #LongCovid and the way this disease has completely paused my life. I can't believe we're being told the pandemic is over. Anyway, here are the main things I'm noticing that I did not know before getting it:

82

669

2,394



(link [url]https://twitter.com/wendydheard/status/1589801292582776832[/url] or https://twitter.com/wendydheard/status/1589801292582776832 DJ Long CoViD may have lots of-different-symptoms....So each story is different...). 

Dr. Eric Ding writing a newsletter [url]https://drericding.substack.com/subscribe[/url] or https://drericding.substack.com/subscribe (if twitter becomes a problem...). 

In general...winter is on its way...[url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/11/08/inflation-dropped-143-october[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/11/08/inflation-dropped-143-october inflation a problem in many places (cold weather = energy prices up....-linked to food/transport/housing costs...). 

MPX [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states/other-diseases-ai/monkeypox-ab/962251-1st-monkeypox-related-death-reported-in-nj-health-dept[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states/other-diseases-ai/monkeypox-ab/962251-1st-monkeypox-related-death-reported-in-nj-health-dept 

Ebola [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa/ebola-forums/ebola-uganda/959023-uganda-declares-ebola-virus-disease-outbreak-sebov-20-sept-2022?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa/ebola-forums/ebola-uganda/959023-uganda-declares-ebola-virus-disease-outbreak-sebov-20-sept-2022?view=stream and lots of other diseases are NOT over....

So reduce risks by reducing contacts !

End of part 2



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 08 2022 at 11:19pm

DJ, part 1,

Let me start with "non-pandemic background";

[url]https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Chinese-President-Xi-To-Visit-Saudi-Arabia-By-Year-End.html[/url] or https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Chinese-President-Xi-To-Visit-Saudi-Arabia-By-Year-End.html ;Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to visit Saudi Arabia by the end of this year as the world’s top oil importer and the top oil exporter strengthen energy and strategic ties while U.S.-Saudi relations are at a historically low level.   

DJ, part of the agenda will be Saudi Arabia joining BRICS (Brazil-Russia-India-China-South Africa)...Argentina, Mexico also showing interest. Iran did join the SCO.

[url]https://newseu.cgtn.com/news/2022-11-09/China-Europe-Express-train-helping-trade-blossom-1eNrJBFGkr6/index.html[/url] or https://newseu.cgtn.com/news/2022-11-09/China-Europe-Express-train-helping-trade-blossom-1eNrJBFGkr6/index.html ;

Ten days to cover the 7,855 kilometers from Xi'an in central China to the world's largest inland port in Duisburg by rail is not bad going at all. 

The shorter the journey takes, or 'lead time' as it's called in the business, the quicker those trains head back to where they came from, packed with European goods for the Chinese market.

DJ...the EU needs export to Asia...

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/arctic-silk-road-comes-alive-russia-sends-oil-china[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/arctic-silk-road-comes-alive-russia-sends-oil-china ;

Western energy sanctions against Russia have helped Moscow achieve the second-ever sail of a crude tanker east through the Arctic Circle toward China, a route dubbed 'Arctic Silk Road,' that could one day revolutionize energy trade flows from Russia to Asia because it's about half the time versus Russia's Baltic ports through the Suez Canal. 

DJ Russia is exporting energy to India via the Caspian Sea/Iran route

In short; Asia is the economic, diplomacy motor of the world....

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/military/us-establish-another-new-military-base-northeast-syria[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/military/us-establish-another-new-military-base-northeast-syria and [url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/11/putins-chef-ridicules-us-news-outlets-adds-election-interference-comedy-sketch.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/11/putins-chef-ridicules-us-news-outlets-adds-election-interference-comedy-sketch.html 

DJ...some US "politicians" keep blaming Russia for losing elections, blame China for their own pandemic failures....We can keep repeating mistakes over and over again...self-destruction-or get realistic....At present-in my view-the EU has to BREAK !!!! ties with the US/UK political "elite" ....the longer we follow the US elite-led insanity the more damage will be done...

By the way [url]https://english.alarabiya.net/coronavirus[/url] or https://english.alarabiya.net/coronavirus still following the CoViD pandemic (western "media/politics" promote the idea that CoViD is history/endemic...). Also [url]https://tass.com/society/1533515[/url] or https://tass.com/society/1533515 Russia keeps reporting on CoViD...

Russia’s COVID-19 death toll rose by 63 over the past day, reaching 390,712, the anti-coronavirus crisis center told reporters on Tuesday.

A day earlier, 61 COVID-19 deaths were registered.

Let me compare that with [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table using the same numbers...

I could not find much on CoViD in Iran [url]https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/478398/Iran-to-expand-healthcare-coop-with-Cuba[/url] or https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/478398/Iran-to-expand-healthcare-coop-with-Cuba indirect link...

DJ-The ONGOING !!!! pandemic (related with) climate change need international cooperation...not more insane criminal wars !!!!

NATO agression is weakening democracy, makes the west weaker....diplomacy was and is the better alternative ! STOP WARS ! (Refugees/"migration" is related to climate collapse, wars...a realistic answer to stop refugees is to stop the reasons why they can not survive in their own country/region...).

A short "jump" to the pandemic; [url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/11/08/covid-autumn-wave-likely-hospital-total-850-infections-6-month-low[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/11/08/covid-autumn-wave-likely-hospital-total-850-infections-6-month-low ;

Hospitals in the Netherlands were treating 849 people with Covid-19 on Tuesday afternoon, according to the LCPS. The patient total fell by 16 percent over the course of a week, falling to its lowest level since 3 October. The number of new coronavirus infections reported to the RIVM also fell closer to its lowest mark in a half-year.

"The decline that we have been seeing for a while continues. We can say that the autumn wave has come to an end," the RIVM said.

DJ; NL-CDC/RIVM did create the term "post-CoViD" for the CoViD cases lasting longer then 4 weeks....again showing neglect in dealing with long lasting infections...(ME-CFS, chronic Q-fever, Legionella, Lyme disease). NL used to be the second largest agri-culture exporter in the world-after the US-including flower export. On food export NL was #5...we have over 115 million !!!!!! farm animals in NL !!! Poultry in NL is around 100 million-over 6 million have been killed (and replaced) because of H5N1/bird flu spread...Mink-farming did end because of CoViD spread. 

DJ-Public transport should be the #1 way of (long) distance transport in NL...but "our" government is destroying public transport-we now see over 9 million cars (to use cars you need parking spaces...3 per car...so we end up with 27 million parking spaces in NL !!!). Traffic deaths are increasing-a lot of them riding bikes in urban area's....

Again-total insanity...importing cars, fuel while NL trains [url]https://www.ns.nl/en/about-ns/sustainability/climate-neutral[/url] or https://www.ns.nl/en/about-ns/sustainability/climate-neutral ;That is: 100% sustainable energy without fossil fuel as a back-up.

see also [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nederlandse_Spoorwegen[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nederlandse_Spoorwegen ...bicycles and public transport could do maybe up to 80% of NL transport needs....but "market/economy" now is bringing in even more cars...and even planes [url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/11/06/200-activists-arrested-schiphol-demonstration[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/11/06/200-activists-arrested-schiphol-demonstration ...so what is the point of climate talks...pandemic strategies ????

-"Nicole" now hurricane-but me weaken a bit faster the coming days-by staying over land after arriving in Florida...Still likely to bring a lot of damage...

End of part 1

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 08 2022 at 11:27pm

part 2-more pandemic;

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/animals/preprint-widespread-wildlife-exposure-to-sars-cov-2-in-the-eastern-united-states/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/animals/preprint-widespread-wildlife-exposure-to-sars-cov-2-in-the-eastern-united-states/ ;

Species that tested PCR positive for SARS-CoV-2 included bobcats, opossums, squirrels, foxes, deer and rabbits. Other species, including raccoons, skunks and mice had positive serology indicating a previous SARS-CoV-2 infection.

We sampled 18 different wildlife species in the Eastern U.S. and detected widespread exposure to SARS-CoV-2 across wildlife species.

Using quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction and whole genome sequencing, we conclusively detected SARS-CoV-2 in the Virginia opossum and had equivocal detections in six additional species.

Species considered human commensals like squirrels, and raccoons had high seroprevalence, ranging between 62%-71%, and sites with high human use had three times higher seroprevalence than low human-use areas.

SARS-CoV-2 genomic data from an infected opossum and molecular modeling exposed previously uncharacterized changes to amino acid residues observed in the receptor binding domain (RBD), which predicts improved binding between the spike protein and human angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE2) compared to the dominant variant circulating at the time of isolation. These mutations were not identified in human samples at the time of collection.

Overall, our results highlight widespread exposure to SARS-CoV-2 in wildlife and suggest that areas with high human activity may serve as important points of contact for cross-species transmission. Furthermore, this work highlights the potential role of wildlife in fueling de novo mutations that may eventually appear in humans.

DJ...CoViD in animals may see older/other variants then we may see in human cases. Pets may be closest to human variants...CoViD spread often may be limited...but new variants/mutations pose high risks...

Related to animal spread of CoViD, [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/omicron/xbb/emma-hodcrofts-analyses-the-xbb-recombinant-variant/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/omicron/xbb/emma-hodcrofts-analyses-the-xbb-recombinant-variant/ ;

8: “There’s nothing inherently ‘worse’ about recombinants – they could be more or less fit than their parents, or have the same fitness. (Of course, if they are very unfit, we probably never see them!) There have been many of them in the pandemic, & most haven’t spread widely.”

9: Sometimes recombination can bring together mutations that offer a big advantage to the virus in some way, but this isn’t what always (or even often) happens. As with any new combination of variants, they need to be looked at & assessed individually!

End of Emma Hodcroft’s thread

 

Some Chinese scientists aren’t convinced of this rather benign outlook for SARS-CoV-2 recombinant variants however, and neither are we. 

Emma is right in saying that, until now, recombinants haven’t been particularly successful, and that they have so far failed to create a variant that has persisted for any length of time. That may currently be the case, but every single SARS-CoV-2 recombination event that happens is a gamble that could quickly prove that statement wrong.

The fact that a recombinant variant hasn’t succeeded so far doesn’t rule out the possibility of a recombination event that simultaneously creates a more infectious AND a more pathogenic virus in future. This could also happen with a cross-species recombination event. Given the level of SARS-CoV-2 transmission across the globe, losing this particular bet is becoming ever more likely for humanity.

The potential for a Disease X like recombinant occurring is one of the best reasons humanity has for continuing to limit SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

 

China: “Deltacron Is Just the Beginning”

DJ...one may claim "recombination is "just" a "large mutation"...and most cases that idea will be correct. Most mutations-and recombinations-end up with a weaker virus so selective reproduction will end those variants. The problem is "Disease X"-variant...given the statistics/exponential growth-we are NOT stopping the virus-(try to limit the damage via vaccination)-chances for a "disease X variant" (maybe even a mix of several viral diseases-somehow combining spread) is growing...

Just like in the climate collapse story-we are "rolling downhill" most of what can develop is;

-out of (our) control

-potential devastating...

Again...STOP THE SPREAD !!!!

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/another-covid-outbreak-in-antarctica/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/another-covid-outbreak-in-antarctica/ ;

You might have thought that visiting the pristine environment of Antarctica would require some of the strongest biosafety security measures for visitors on Earth, wouldn’t you?

Well, apparently not it seems, because another outbreak of Covid has just been reported at a research station in Antarctica – the fourth outbreak that we are aware of on that continent since the pandemic began – and those are just the ones that have been made public.

An outbreak of Covid at the McMurdo Station in Antarctica has disrupted life for researchers and support staffers at the southern end of the world. 

McMurdo Station had 73 total confirmed cases as of Thursday afternoon, according to a statement provided to NBC News by Amanda Hallberg Greenwell, a National Science Foundation spokesperson. The research station has a population of 885, the statement said, meaning more than 8% of those have tested positive for the coronavirus so far. 

ABCnews report

 

The three previous outbreaks that we are aware of were reported on in these posts:

January 2022: Covid outbreak at an Argentinian research station

January 2022: 16 research station workers infected with Covid at Belgian base

December 2020: Covid-19 reaches Antarctica – 36 people infected at Chilean base

 

Given the infectiousness of this virus at extremely low temperatures, perhaps we should be looking at polar bears, penguins and seals as a potential intermediate hosts?

DJ...Antarctica may be the "region/continent" with highest % of cases....real numbers of course are small...

End of part 2

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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I have some time...so part 3;

-Climate collapse and pandemics are inter-linked. Both also are getting worse..."politics" fail. 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Ni%C3%B1a[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Ni%C3%B1a ;

La Niña (/lə ˈnin.jə/; Spanish: [la ˈniɲa]) is an oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon that is the colder counterpart of El Niño, as part of the broader El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern. The name La Niña originates from Spanish for "the girl", by analogy to El Niño, meaning "the boy". In the past, it was also called an anti-El Niño[1] and El Viejo, meaning "the old man."[2]

During a La Niña period, the sea surface temperature across the eastern equatorial part of the central Pacific Ocean will be lower than normal by 3–5 °C (5.4–9 °F). An appearance of La Niña often persists for longer than five months. El Niño and La Niña can be indicators of weather changes across the globe. Atlantic and Pacific hurricanes can have different characteristics due to lower or higher wind shear and cooler or warmer sea surface temperatures.

DJ...we are now in a "colder the average" period...Still [url]https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-europe-experiences-warmest-october-record[/url] or https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-europe-experiences-warmest-october-record ;

  • Europe had its warmest October in the record, with temperatures nearly 2°C above the 1991-2020 reference period.
  • A warm spell brought record daily temperatures to western Europe, and a record-warm October for Austria, Switzerland and France, as well as for large parts of Italy and Spain.
  • Canada experienced record warmth, and much warmer-than-average conditions also occurred in Greenland and Siberia.
  • The largest colder-than-average temperatures were found in Australia, far eastern Russia, and in parts of west Antarctica.

the warmer period is on its way...[url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/11/the-upcoming-el-nino-and-further-events-and-developments.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/11/the-upcoming-el-nino-and-further-events-and-developments.html ;
Moving from the bottom of the current La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño could make a difference of more than half a degree Celsius, as indicated by the image below, adapted from NOAA

-

The upcoming El Niño looks set to coincide with a peak in sunspots. The peak in sunspots looks set to reach a higher than expected maximum impact around July 2025. An analysis in an earlier post concludes that the rise in sunspots from May 2020 to July 2025 could make a difference of some 0.15°C.

Accordingly, the impact of the upcoming El Niño could make a difference of more than 0.5°C over the next few years.

-

Very threatening is a rise in methane that kept following the trend depicted in the above image, created with WMO 2015-2021 global annual surface mean methane abundances, with an added trend that points at a potential mean global abundance of methane of more than 700 ppm (parts per million) CO₂e by the end of 2026. The image warns that, if such a trend kept continuing, the clouds tipping point could be crossed as a result of the forcing of methane alone.  

-

When including the temperature rise that has already unfolded from pre-industrial and the impact of all such events and developments, the temperature could rise by more than 10°C over the next few years, corresponding with a CO₂e of over 1200 ppm, which implies that the total temperature rise could be as high as 18.44°C by 2026. 

Keep in mind that humans are likely to go extinct with a rise of 3°C, as illustrated by the image below, from an analysis discussed in an earlier post.

DJ...I am NOT an expert...my "hopium" is in unforseen feedbacks...land-ice sliding into the ocean bringing more cooling. Increase of snow...reflecting sun heat....Nature able to balance itself...maybe in that view pandemics a way to limit damage-human made-to nature....

[url]https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/c-change/subtopics/coronavirus-and-climate-change/[/url] or https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/c-change/subtopics/coronavirus-and-climate-change/ ;

How likely are we to see infectious disease spread as a result of climate change?

Climate change has already made conditions more favorable to the spread of some infectious diseases, including Lyme disease, waterborne diseases such as Vibrio parahaemolyticus which causes vomiting and diarrhea, and mosquito-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue fever. Future risks are not easy to foretell, but climate change hits hard on several fronts that matter to when and where pathogens appear, including temperature and rainfall patterns. To help limit the risk of infectious diseases, we should do all we can to vastly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit global warming to 1.5 degrees.

Why are emerging infectious diseases on the rise?

We have seen a trend of greater emergence of infectious diseases in recent decades. Most of these diseases have entered into people from animals, especially wild animals. This trend has many causes. We have massive concentrations of domesticated animals around the world, some of which can be home to pathogens, like the flu, that can make people sick. We also have massive concentrations of people in cities where diseases transmitted by sneezing may find fertile ground. And we have the ability to travel around the globe in less than a day and share germs widely.

But a look at the origins of COVID reveals that other forces may be in play. In the past century we have escalated our demands upon nature, such that today, we are losing species at a rate unknown since the dinosaurs, along with half of life on earth, went extinct 65 million years ago. This rapid dismantling of life on earth owes primarily to habitat loss, which occurs mostly from growing crops and raising livestock for people. With fewer places to live and fewer food sources to feed on, animals find food and shelter where people are, and that can lead to disease spread.

Another major cause of species loss is climate change, which can also change where animals and plants live and affect where diseases may occur. Historically, we have grown as a species in partnership with the plants and animals we live with. So, when we change the rules of the game by drastically changing the climate and life on earth, we have to expect that it will affect our health.

DJ...extreme weather decreases healthcare capacity, heatwaves also means animals getting in danger...When you look at science-facts there may no reason for "hopium".....in many ways climate change and pandemics will go hand in hand....

-[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/british-nuclear-submarine-catches-fire-during-top-secret-mission-north-atlantic[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/british-nuclear-submarine-catches-fire-during-top-secret-mission-north-atlantic

A British nuclear-powered submarine carrying two Trident II ballistic missiles was forced to abort a "top secret mission" in the North Atlantic after a fire broke out, reported The Sun.

Somewhere, deep in the North Atlantic, the HMS Victorious, a Vanguard-class nuclear submarine, was conducting a classified mission when an electrical fire erupted. All 130-plus crew were involved in containing the fire, which forced the captain to declare an "emergency." 

HMS Victorious had to quickly surface as the vessel was filling up with toxic fumes. Once the 16,000-ton sub reached the surface, hatches were opened to let out the smoke.

After a damage assessment by the captain, the decision was made to return the 30-year-old vessel to the naval base at HMNB Clyde in Faslane, Scotland.

A Navy source reportedly told The Sun that "every seagoing member of the Royal Navy is a qualified fire-fighter," and the fire was quickly extinguished. 

A Royal Navy spokesman said: "The continuous at-sea deterrent is unaffected, but we do not comment on the detail of submarine operations."

There was no further explanation about what caused the electrical blaze or the extent of the damage.

DJ-UK PM was rushed out of the climate meeting in Egypt...no doubt being informed on this incident...Given the UK-Russia "relations" this kind of accidents could have resulted in "further escalation"....(DJ-My impression is that the present UK PM Sunak may be more aware of the "global situation" and the UK position in it...he may go for de-escalation...). 

-[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/uks-nhs-hires-us-spy-tech-firm-palantir-extract-patient-data-without-patient-consent[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/uks-nhs-hires-us-spy-tech-firm-palantir-extract-patient-data-without-patient-consent ;

Last summer, as readers may recall, executives at NHS England — the non-departmental government body that runs the National Health Service in England — came up with an ingenious plan to digitally scrape the general practice data of up to 55 million patients and share it with any private third parties willing to pay for it. NHS England allowed patients to opt out of the scheme; they just didn’t bother telling them about it until three weeks before the deadline, presumably because if they had, millions of patients would have opted out.

When the FT finally broke the story, a scandal erupted. NHS England officials responded by shelving the scheme, saying they needed to focus on reaching out to patients and reassuring them their data is safe. But that hasn’t happened. Instead, they have waited for the scandal to die down before embarking on an even more egregious scheme.

This time it is patient data from UK hospitals that is up for grabs. And patients will have no opt-out option. In fact, without even consulting patients, NHS England has instructed NHS Digital — which will soon be merged with NHS England as part of the UK’s governments accelerated reforms to the NHS’ “tech agenda” — to gather patient data from NHS hospitals and extract it to its data platform, which is based on Palantir’s Foundry enterprise data management platform.

The pretext for taking such a step is that researching and analyzing patients’ hospital data will help the NHS better understand and tackle the crisis in treatment waiting times resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. But the result will be yet more private-sector involvement in essential NHS processes. And in this case, the company being involved in those processes is one of the darkest in the tech universe.

-

Authored by Nick Corbishley via NakedCapitalism.com,

Palantir, with intimate ties to defense, intelligence and security industries around the world, is set to play an even larger role in the UK’s crisis-ridden National Health System (NHS).

DJ...the basic problem is "politics for profit" all over....Total insanity...NOT stopping climate change, pandemics..."to save profits"...crazy ! 

We need political reforms NOW !!!! The basic problem killing us all is "politics for sale"; short term profits...even if it would end all live on this planet...it is totally sick! 

What I hate most is the "political-profits-agenda" now has taken over all major political parties in most countries...Voting only changing faces not policies...end of democracy...rise of democrazy...

End of part 3

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 09 2022 at 2:09am

part 4...twitter;

Covid-19: it is urgent to continue to fight the pandemic say nearly 400 experts in a study published in the journal Nature

DJ...it is very sad 400 experts have to pressure to try to get politics to take pandemics serious...








So it occurred to me that parents should know the warning signs of immunodeficiency in children so that you’ll know when it’s time to ask that your child’s immune system be formally evaluated. These 10 features are all warning signs 🚩 that may warrant further evaluation.

link [url]https://twitter.com/lisa_iannattone/status/1590112881802366976/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/lisa_iannattone/status/1590112881802366976/photo/1 DJ-Immune problems may see a person NOT building defenses/immunity after infection and/or vaccination...but also may result in the virus being able to hide in the host and see lots of mutations resulting in even more risky variants....








The antibody drug Evusheld is effective for protecting clinically extremely vulnerable people from covid-19, including its omicron variants, a preprint study has reported https://bmj.com/content/379/bmj.o2690


(also discussed in [url]https://www.independentsage.org/[/url] or https://www.independentsage.org/ latest video...). 








Replying to   and 
3CL protease inhibitors do not decrease viral load. They stop the increase in virus. The immune system must ‘take out’ infected cells to reduce the viral load. So if you have simultaneous stop increase in load while turning off immune system you get net 0 and then rebound. It /1

and








This brings up a lot of thinking I've done on novelty, bullshit, the stages of truth, and the normalization and distortion of new scientific work and old scientific history.  For those interested, my brain-dump on such topics is here  (1/12) http://molevol.org/normalizing-and-appropriating-new-scientific-findings/

DJ..my impression is that even the best immunologists, virologists, epidemiologists/experts may reach the end of what they can offer. Sequencing samples-sometimes two months old-with hardly any testing in lots of countries may result in a "gap" between science and how pandemics are acting...








U.S. COVID update: Only 11 states reporting on Election Day, number in hospital rising - New cases: 15,446 - Average: 36,380 (-2,392) - States reporting: 11/50 - In hospital: 27,867 (+784) - In ICU: 3,252 (+139) - New deaths: 155 - Average: 321 (-37)

DJ...if you stop testing & reporting "don't test, don't tell" how the..... are you able to say a thing on this pandemic ?????

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Part 1, 

International situation-are there US-Russian talks ? With Netanyahu again PM in Israel-a good friend of Putin....Saudi Arabia planning to join BRICS/SCO, OPEC+ dropping the US-petro-$ it is time the US "rethinks" its position...No doubt the EU may be pushing for that as well...

As a pandemic background the international situation only gained in importance...economic, politicical crises only makes dealing with the pandemic worse...

China

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/beijing-insists-zero-covid-policy-blames-local-governments-excessive-measures[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/beijing-insists-zero-covid-policy-blames-local-governments-excessive-measures ;

Authored by Mary Hong via The Epoch Times,

In a press conference on Friday, the Chinese Health Commission insisted the country’s zero-COVID policy is an effective and economic measure for pandemic containment.

The officials also blamed local governments such as Zhengzhou for unscientific measures that hurt the economy and frustrated the public.

-

The manufacturing sector in China has seen the disastrous impact of the arbitrary lockdown imposed by the authorities.

DJ...(Some) Western media keep pushing the "economy first-living with the virus" claims...In "science" there is growing frustration on denial of the pandemics...Excess deaths simply are much to high...less testing & reporting does not stop detecting all kinds of variants able to evade immunity...So "the vaccines only-live with the virus" strategy also is not stopping the pandemic...

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table for the last two days has 340,000/350,000 new cases...(US just over 30,000 with most US states simply no longer reporting cases...)...real number of cases still may be in the millions...[url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data for the UK new cases (november 8) estimated close to 150,000.....

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table global cases now only -8% may have some use as indicator...Asia, South America both reporting cases +11%...75 countries/regions report an increase of cases...DJ-In Europe we may have had an autumn/fall wave...in general we may be moving into another global wave-most likely with several variants fighting for dominance-in a "variant soup"...and decrease of immunity protection...

With also RSV/Flu increasing we may be on our way to another major crisis...

Children

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/american-academy-of-pediatrics-warns-that-covid-19-infections-among-children-is-increasing-in-america-with-30,000-new-cases-in-the-last-7-days[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/american-academy-of-pediatrics-warns-that-covid-19-infections-among-children-is-increasing-in-america-with-30,000-new-cases-in-the-last-7-days (TMN)

and [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/news/50-increase-in-children-presenting-to-emergency-departments-in-various-irish-hospitals/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/news/50-increase-in-children-presenting-to-emergency-departments-in-various-irish-hospitals/ ,

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/news/cheo-childrens-hospital-of-eastern-ontario-facing-unprecedented-surge/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/news/cheo-childrens-hospital-of-eastern-ontario-facing-unprecedented-surge/ 

 All point to an increase of very ill children....a mix of diseases CoViD, RSV, Flu may be co-spreading. The bad news is -even after recovery- children may face live long health issues...The TMN article also mentions [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_adenovirus_41[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_adenovirus_41 ;

Human adenovirus 41 (HAdV-F41), is an enteric Adenovirus, a nonenveloped virus with an icosahedral nucleocapsid containing a double-stranded DNA genome.[1]

It can particularly target the gastrointestinal tract to cause gastroenteritis, with symptoms similar to rotavirus gastroenteritis and norovirus.[2] It may be present in the gut without causing symptoms and can be detected by using molecular based assays and enzyme immunoassay.[2][3] As of August 2022, human adenovirus 41 has been identified in a majority of small children with hepatitis of unknown cause in 2 case series.

 It may be present in the gut without causing symptoms.[3]

 simply may indicate it is far more widespread...

It cannot be detected using traditional cell culture isolation,[3] but can be detected by using molecular based assays and enzyme immunoassay.[It was first identified in 1983

and hard to find...may have been on the basis of other long term healthissues (like fibro-myalgia, ME-CFS etc. often misdiagnosed as "mental"...the wrong diagnoses does cause mental issues-depression etc...). 

The TMN article also asks if decrease of immunity is now resulting in an increase of severe ill children....

DJ-All indications are this pandemic is far from over-but strategies to deal with it have been given up...

End of part 1




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 10 2022 at 12:10am

part 2,








What to expect in the next few weeks? Excellent SARSCoV2 Variant report by   et al

link [url]https://github.com/neherlab/SARS-CoV-2_variant-reports/blob/main/reports/variant_report_latest_draft.md[/url] or https://github.com/neherlab/SARS-CoV-2_variant-reports/blob/main/reports/variant_report_latest_draft.md ;

It continues to be unclear which of BQ.1.1 or XBB will turn out to be fitter. There is still not enough data from countries with co-circulation, yet.

However, some evolutionary trends within BQ.1* and XBB are worth discussing.

BQ.1* keeps acquiring beneficial mutations S:R346T and S:Y144-

Mutation S:R346T is not unique to BQ.1.1, it has been acquired independently in at least 2 other BQ.1* sublineages: BQ.1.9 and BQ.1.18 which together make up less than 10% of all BQ.1* with S:R346T.

Besides S:R346T, the other major mutation that seems to confer a significant growth advantage on a BQ.1* backbone is S:Y144-. This deletion has been acquired independently at least a dozen times and seems to confer a significant additional growth advantage. Due to the large number of independent acquisitions, and the fact that Usher is blind to deletions, few Pango lineages defined by S:Y144- have been designated to date, the exceptions being BQ.1.18 and BQ.1.1.10.

Interestingly, relative growth advantage estimates conferred by S:144- seem to be higher when S:R346T is also present. While this could be a statistical artifact, it is also plausible that in the presence of S:R346T the remaining neutralizing antibodies bind particularly to the N-terminal domain which S:144- could disrupt.

In samples collected in early October, in BQ.1* without S:R346T, S:144- was present in ~15% of them, with relative growth advantage of S:144- of at around 3-5%/day.

In BQ.1* with S:R346T, S:144- was present in ~10% of them, with relative growth advantage of S:144- of at around 7-12%/day.

With only 200 BQ.1* with S:R346T and S:Y144- in GISAID by 2022-10-26 there are no reliable growth advantages yet. This mutation combination seems to be particularly common in France and makes up a bit more than 1% of total sequences at the beginning of October.

Beyond BQ.1*, the combination of S:144- and S:R346T has appeared in CR.1 (aka BA.5.2.18.1), BA.4.6.3, CQ.1/2 (BE.4.1.1.1/2) - all of which also have mutations at S:K444, as well as BS.1 (BA.2.3.2.1), BJ.1 (BA.2.10.1.1) and XBB.

XBB sublineages with mutations S:G252V or S:D253G dominate

XBB.1 defined by S:G252V and ORF8:8* (stop) makes up more than half of all recent XBB sequences. XBB.2 has independently evolved S:D253G and now makes up around 5% of all XBB sequences. The independent success of two mutations in such proximity is indicative of a growth advantage conferred by mutations at this position.

Other BQ.1* and XBB lineages to monitor

Beyond the mutations and lineages mentioned above, some lineages with mutations of interest but small number of sequences are:

  • BQ.1.1.11/12 with S:494P in addition to BQ.1.1-defining S:R346T
  • BQ.1.1.2 with S:D253G in addition to BQ.1.1-defining S:R346T
  • BQ.1.1.9 with S:S151I in addition to BQ.1.1-defining S:R346T
  • XBB.1.3 with S:A484T in addition to XBB.1-defining S:G252V
  • XBB.4 with S:K444R
  • XBB.3.1 with S:Q677R

Other lineages of interest with high predicted immune escape

Besides BQ.1* and XBB, there are other lineages that are predicted to have high immune escape (by the Bloom et al. escape calculator):

  • BN.1* with S:A475V (1x Iceland, 1x Austria)
  • BN.1.2.1 defined by S:T470N (19 sequences, mostly England)
  • CH.1.1 (aka BM.4.1.1.1.1 aka BA.2.75.3.4.1.1.1.1), a level 7, with S:R346T, S:K444T and S:L452R and S:F486S in addition to BA.2.75-defining mutations, 47 sequences
  • BQ.1.1 with S:G446S (2 clustered English sequences, level 7)

4-AA insertion N:211ins:SESF found in 900 BA.5.1.3 sequences

Ryan Hisner has noticed that a 4 amino acid insertion occurs in about 10% (that is 900 sequences) of the BA.5.1.3 lineage. However this insertion does not seem to confer a growth advantage. The insertion has been present at a stable ~10% of BA.5.1.3. See more details on the pango-designation issue.

Variant report 2022-10-17

Various immune evasive variants are dominant around the world

Various immune evasive variants have evolved around the world and are in the process of becoming dominant.

Due to a large degree of convergence, this time, it is not just one variant that goes around the globe - but different regions have different variants, depending on where a variant first arose.

Two variants stand out in particular: BQ.1.1 and XBB.

Both variants are found to evade neutralizing antibodies produced by vaccine and/or (breakthrough) infection. The best data at the moment comes from Yunlong Cao's group which keeps their preprint updated as new data is generated for novel lineages: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.09.15.507787v3.

Both variants notably evade antibodies produced after breakthrough infection with BA.5

DJ-just a part of the update...some remarks;

-only a small number of new cases get tested

-only a small number of tested cases see sequencing

-the proces takes a lot of time...sequencing may give us info on variants spreading weeks ago...

-DJ-my opinion-sequencing may miss new high risk variants that could "explode"...still sequencing may detect mutations that can result in such an explosive variant...with the "right" mutations to spread in very high numbers (R0 >10) and simply "ignore" immunity (or next step ADE-use immunity to spread...a nightmare scenario...only tool then is "freeze" sort of total lockdown...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number measles may have an R0 of 12-18...[url]https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57431420[/url] or https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57431420 ; "Ultimately there are limits and there isn't a super-ultimate virus that has every bad combination of mutations," said Dr Katzourakis.

DJ...I think-in theory-we may see CoViD variants with a R0 of 20+ .....We are NOT stopping the spread...

So with CoViD in billions of hosts-over a hundred species-one will see "trillions" of mutations-very likely the "worst kind of mutations" may already be there-just did not yet combine....

Again....STOP THE SPREAD !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Another horror scenario is combination of spread with other infections...we need to take this crisis much more serious ! It has the potential to kill us all in just a few weeks with "nightmare variants"...

End of part 2

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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part 3, most twitter...

-In latest news FiJi very deep cluster of earthquakes-could result in more seismic activity (Pacific ring).

Raghu Venugopal MD

@raghu_venugopal
·
Ontario has filled all its pediatric ICU beds as reported by Dr Warner. ⁦@drmwarner⁩ We need a mask mandate now. Let me repeat - we have no pediatric ICU beds. Let that sink in. https://thestar.com/news/gta/2022/11/08/torontos-top-doctor-urged-to-look-at-mandatory-masking-in-schools-as-sick-kids-swamp-hospitals.html

and

CHEO Ottawa

@CHEO
·
“Unprecedented”- there’s no better word to describe the crisis at #CHEO. Yesterday, we reassigned our Surgical Day Unit and redeployed clinicians from all areas of the hospital to open a second Pediatric Intensive Care Unit.   Here's how YOU can help: http://ow.ly/xbOO50Lz7Te

DJ Canada cases-worldometers -48%...deaths -50%...If children have a complex of infections they may not end up in CoViD statistics....

According to financial news media long Covid is a big deal, it affects workers and that matters. COVID is not a big deal. Wait: If Long Covid is a big deal, then COVID is a big deal. "Could long Covid be the world’s next big workplace health crisis?

DJ..."long CoViD=CoViD "!!!!!! [url]https://www.ft.com/content/00c84a47-57ab-42dc-aa35-f6edc675a49b[/url] or https://www.ft.com/content/00c84a47-57ab-42dc-aa35-f6edc675a49b ;

Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found here.
https://www.ft.com/content/00c84a47-57ab-42dc-aa35-f6edc675a49b

"Tens of millions of people worldwide are believed to be suffering from long Covid, experiencing symptoms lasting for more than four weeks after they had Covid-19. Host Isabel Berwick speaks to Jana Javornik, associate professor of employment relations at the University of Leeds, about how she’s juggling her workload with long Covid symptoms, and Sarah Neville, the FT’s global health editor, explains why workplaces have been reluctant to address the issue."

DJ, still "economy first"stupidity....

"The growing evidence that Covid-19 is leaving people sicker https://ft.com/content/26e0731f-15c4-4f5a-b2dc-fd8591a02aec "Number of Britons with long Covid reaches new high https://ft.com/content/e62008ff-bebf-4f9f-bc3a-9bb54991fc30 "Long Covid defies understanding as sufferers despair

link [url]https://www.ft.com/content/ff63cd68-7281-4340-b1b6-5db3d891eaff[/url] or https://www.ft.com/content/ff63cd68-7281-4340-b1b6-5db3d891eaff 

Doctors fear ‘tens of thousands’ of people could be afflicted by multiple symptoms

Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found here.
https://www.ft.com/content/ff63cd68-7281-4340-b1b6-5db3d891eaff

 As the UK and other countries face a new wave, scientists are racing to find out what causes long Covid amid fears that even as vaccination suppresses deaths and hospitalisations from the disease, lifting restrictions could leave even more people exposed to longer term illness. In India — recently battered by a ferocious Covid wave — front-line doctors are seeing a rising tide of long Covid cases, while many private and public hospitals are opening specialised “post-Covid centres” to offer treatment and support. Dr Randeep Guleria, director of the All India Institute of Medical Science, estimated that 40 to 60 per cent of hospitalised Covid patients in India suffer ongoing conditions for up to 12 weeks. Of those, 10-15 per cent are still struggling with “classical” long-Covid afflictions — such as breathlessness, joint pains, brain fog and chronic fatigue — after three months.

DJ...CoViD can do damage all over the body..Some of that damage may last long. But also the virus itself may hide-become active again. If also immunity is decreased other infections may show up....








U.S. COVID update: - New cases: 103,355 - Average: 40,063 (+3,683) - Reporting today: 30/50 - In hospital: 28,719 (+852) - In ICU: 3,257 (+5) - New deaths: 840 - Average: 322 (+1)

DJ...with only 30 out of 50 US states reporting cases the real US number is way higher then the 30,000 per day worldometers has...A basic need for pandemic control is good statistics, good reporting...but even that is missing !








Please read!  have written a debunking document specifically around mRNA vaccines (e.g. Pfizer and Moderna) - answering the common myths about them! Please read and share! https://independentsage.org/demystifying-and-debunking-mrna-vaccines/

link [url]https://www.independentsage.org/demystifying-and-debunking-mrna-vaccines/[/url] or https://www.independentsage.org/demystifying-and-debunking-mrna-vaccines/ DJ-Since this pandemic is not over we still have to learn a lot on vaccines. Newer-more effective (nasal/oral) vaccines are on their way...needed urgently ! Vaccines now do only limit-in most cases-disease...may limit viral load-in that way limit spread...but also push a mutation selection proces resulting in immunity evading variants. In short-present vaccines are NOT getting us out of this pandemic....

Am enjoying Mastodon - much more relaxed than twitter and so far no trolls! If you feel like finding me over there it's   @chrischirp@fediscience.org Direct link:

link [url]https://fediscience.org/@chrischirp[/url] or https://fediscience.org/@chrischirp 

End of this part 3...twitter has its problems

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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DJ,

Trying to make sense of what seems to be happening in Ukraine. Some kind of deal ? (Without Ukraine...?) "Mutations" in this conflict go from Netanyahu PM in Israel-good relations with Putin, talks/agreements between Saudi Arabia and Iran on SCO/BRICS to Lula elected in Brasil, Sunak PM in the UK, government in Italy no longer supporting more war...Scholz-Germany in Bejing...[url]https://thesaker.is/the-collective-west-might-be-losing-the-war-with-eurasia/[/url] or https://thesaker.is/the-collective-west-might-be-losing-the-war-with-eurasia/ ;

But whisper it softly there has occurred a slow geopolitical burn which is now not easily snuffed out and which goes from strength to strength. This emerging bloc of independent Eurasian states led in the main by Russia and China and organized in the BRICS (Brazil-Russia-China-India-SouthAfrica) and Shanghai Corporation Organization (SCO) represent an alternative system to the glaring global level of inequality and stands out like a beacon of light against the parasitism and orthodoxies of laissez-faire extractive capitalism/imperialism.

DJ...a powershift is taking place away from "the west" to "Eur-Asia" (with both Russia and Türkiye Eur-Asian countries...Asian population over 4 billion...Economy of China, India -by PPE-soon larger then that of the US or EU...). 

This historic shift will change the way we can deal with pandemics, climate collapse etc. "The west" will no longer be in the driver seat..

CoViD;

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/u-s-study-shows-that-sars-cov-2-reinfections-increases-risk-of-hospitalization,-mortality-and-sequelae-irrespective-of-vaccination-status[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/u-s-study-shows-that-sars-cov-2-reinfections-increases-risk-of-hospitalization,-mortality-and-sequelae-irrespective-of-vaccination-status 

DJ-The corona-virus has 39,200 something segments...possible mutations/recombinations may be 39,200 (2) (so 39,200x39,200? = 1,536,640,000  DJ ???

Recombination/mix of this RNA-virus-in theory possible with lots of other RNA/DNA...so say a string of CoViD recombines with almost a complete string of another CoViD variant you could end up with a virus with 70,000/80,000 segments ? 

A virus does not have its own will/plan...there is a "drive" to reproduce-in hosts-as many new virusses as possible...if not stopped growth will go exponential...(so doubling each step; 1-2-4-8-16-32-64-128-256-512-1024-2048-4096-8192-16,384 "virusses" in 15 steps...). With over 3 billion hosts getting infected the number of CoViD variations by now could be endless...

Vaccines/anti-virals/infection-immunity slow down the growth...but does not stop it. You see selection of evading mutations...

Immunity and Non Pharma Interventions (masks, less contacts) bring the spread-R0-down...for the time being....unless we find better "interventions" however the virus will keep coming back...

When one compares CoViD with H5N1 then H5N1 may be more lethal...but so much harder to catch...a very slow spreader-still-in humans...(for birds H5N1 R0 must be above 10 ?). 

CoViD [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number is put on R0=around 3...but I think one has to look at the proces...Flu results in immunity protection...corona virus infections in animals did NOT result in (enough) immunity protection (the animals got killed to stop the outbreak...) 

So [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number#Sample_values_for_various_infectious_diseases[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number#Sample_values_for_various_infectious_diseases R0 for the CoViD "Wuhan/wild"variant of 2019/20 may have been 2,9...next step was Alpha=R0 4 to 5, then came Delta R0 put at 5,1...Omicron R0 here allready is put at 9,5....with newer variants R0 no doubt 10+....

Vaccines slow down the spread (and in that way bring down the R0)....the non-expert-view I am getting is CoViD may become "unstopable"....

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number#/media/File:Herd_immunity_threshold_vs_r0.svg[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number#/media/File:Herd_immunity_threshold_vs_r0.svg we may be on our way to CoViD variants "going off the scale"....


New paper on COVID reinfection in both acute and postacute phase up to 6 months. Compared to those with no reinfection, those who had reinfection, by 6 months later, had increased mortality 2.2X (1.9% deaths)

and








Compared to noninfected controls, cumulative risks of repeat infection increased according to the number of infections Every reinfection contributes additional risk 3 infections worse than 2 2 infections worse than 1 1 infection worse than none

Same link as in TMN [url]https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-02051-3[/url] or https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-02051-3 ...a downward spiral !

STOP THE SPREAD !!!!

End for today...coffee !


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 11 2022 at 11:14pm

DJ, 

Statistics-as indication only-[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table ;

Global cases -0,7% deaths -21% (weekly...the trend for a shorter time span is worse) 

Europe cases -15%, deaths -19% came from high numbers. UK cases -18% fits in with [url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data 

North America cases -24%, deaths -43% (very limited reporting...)

Asia cases +6%, deaths -6% (over 50% of global population in Asia)

South America cases +78%, deaths +31%

Africa cases -16%, deaths -61% (reporting always has been "limited")

Oceania cases +14%, deaths -33%...Australia cases +47%

DJ-There are some variants spreading in South America, Asia, Australia pushing up case numbers...

As numbers are going up in New South Wales and other parts of Australia, I want to tell you about the newly designated and fastly growing BR.2.1. BR.2.1 = BR.2.75.4.2.1 It is a BA.2.75 with 3 extra spike mutations (L452R, F486I, R346T (sometimes reversed)), plus ORF8:S67F. 

and

NSW Health

@NSWHealth
·
New COVID-19 update from NSW Chief Health Officer, Dr Kerry Chant. This week’s surveillance report can be found on our website: https://health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Pages/weekly-reports.aspx https://vimeo.com/769229453/7e8bac3677

DJ over a month ago [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/omicron/xbb/the-worlds-first-xbb-wave-begins-in-singapore/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/omicron/xbb/the-worlds-first-xbb-wave-begins-in-singapore/ ....[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/singapore/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/singapore/ it looks like the "XBB"wave in Singapore is over...but there are many variants...Japan cases +43%, South Korea just out of one wave now seeing cases go up again +13%...

Dalia Hasan

@DaliaHasanMD
·
I am getting mainstream media interview requests to talk about mask mandates. Something is brewing. Now is the time to contact your elected officials to #BringBackMasks  Call, tweet, email, write, do all the things like your life depends on it, because for some people, it does.

DJ...some early indications that the present strategies are NOT strong enough to stop further worsening of the pandemics...

Garbage "des-info" like https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/real-story-behind-rsv-so-called-tripledemic does NOT help...Yes-RSV is very widespread and mild in most cases...but it may be the combination of RSV, flu-types and CoViD variants that should worry us...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-german-study-finds-that-healthcare-workers-receiving-new-bivalent-jabs-experience-more-adverse-effects-than-monovalent-booster[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-german-study-finds-that-healthcare-workers-receiving-new-bivalent-jabs-experience-more-adverse-effects-than-monovalent-booster 

DJ-Vaccines can be demanding...

End of part 1

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part 2, 

DJ-One of the bad things in CoViD is that it may be a "slow killer" 








Replying to  and 
Sadly, COVID-19 itself has been associated with an increase in out of hospital cardiac arrest and sudden deaths in young people.

on top of that

An important thread by   on the perilous state of our health care system ! I've also got a slightly longer form thread covering similar ground over on  if you are interested https://fediscience.org/@chrischirp/109327206343336438

and 

Kit Yates

@Kit_Yates_Maths
·
There's no other way to say it. The NHS is falling apart. Almost all the latest Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) are bad. Most of them are getting worse. Surely things can't go on like this? 

healthcare is collapsing...[url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/11/09/average-life-expectancy-back-8605-years-2028[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/11/09/average-life-expectancy-back-8605-years-2028 ;

In 2028, the average 65-year-old will have another 21.05 years to live, Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reported on Wednesday. That brings the life expectancy to 86.05 years, back to the prognosis for 2021 level before the coronavirus pandemic lowered it.

Life expectancy in the Netherlands has been steadily increasing from the 1950s until the coronavirus pandemic hit. In 1950, the average 65-year-old could expect another 14.3 years of life. By 2019, that had increased to 20.1 years.


In the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021, the life expectancy of 65-year-olds dropped to 19.5 years. About 10 percent more people died in each of those years than expected due to the coronavirus.

According to the stats office’s current forecast, in 2028, life expectancy will be 1.0 years higher than in 2019 and 1.6 higher than in 2020 and 2021. Life expectancy for women is higher than for men. In 2021, the difference at age 65 was 2.6 years.


The government uses Statistics Netherlands’ life expectancy prognosis to determine the state pension age - how many years will the average person require a pension after retirement? Because the pandemic lowered life expectancy, the state pension age will remain stable at 67 years from 2024 to 2027. It is not yet clear whether the government will increase it again for 2028 now that life expectancy is back on the rise

DJ...this reporting may be a bit "optimistic"-"political" (pension-age will go up further...67 and 3 months after 2027...(something like that...). 

In short-my non-expert view; 

-Long CoViD (or "post CoViD, chronic CoViD) is CoViD....the 4 weeks after a positive test limit-with tens/hundreds of millions of people dealing with long term healthissues- is outdated...

-Excess death numbers going up indicate most CoViD damage may be missed/ignored

-Outlook is getting worse...








Graph: Pediatric hospital COVID admissions in 2022 already exceeds 2021 + 2020 combined.  Pediatric #COVID hospital admissions in England🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 ⁦⁩ 2020: 3,259 2021: 10,654 2022*: 18,201⚠️ (just to Oct 31) Kids are not immune.

and

Nature: Viral load dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Delta and Omicron variants following multiple vaccine doses and previous infection: Vaccination has faster waning with Omicron - call for reassessment of future booster campaigns.

DJ link [url]https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-33096-0[/url] or https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-33096-0 lots of indications the "vaccine strategy in combination with living with the virus" is a total disaster....

[url]https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps[/url] or https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps excess deaths simply stay much to high...certainly excess deaths for children 0-14 y/o is dramatic...CoViD may present itself with other symptoms in that age group ? Or simply may not get tested ? (Children did not get CoViD -no testing- so the wrong idea was "proven" in lack of testing=low positive tests...). 

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table has CoViD deaths hardly going up-gap with excess deaths only getting wider...

Also co-infection with RSV and/or flu, CoViD reinfections can bring more serious outcomes...given the duration of this pandemic, heatwaves...a high number of very vulnerable people may have already died. So the still high excess deaths is an extra worry-has to include more healthier people...

End of part 2

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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DJ, part 1

-Ukraine war-there seems to be a lot of diplomacy going on-staying out of the "news". Túrkiye, Saudi Arabia main players (DJ; India, Indonesia G20 coming soon in Bali -also involved). Russia pulled out of Kherson/Xepcon (Greek historic links...) but was allowed to do more global trade with some western sanctions lifted. 

It would be very welcome-but also very optimistic-if this would be the end of this conflict. Russian historic ally was winter...so maybe the "deals" are only a strategy to buy time...However Russia mobilized major forces-a restart of the conflict will look different. 

There are no "winners" in this conflict-however I see it as a part of transfer of "power" from the "west" to "Asia". That proces in fact just started.

-CoViD 

[url]https://www.timesofisrael.com/cases-still-low-but-new-covid-strains-spreading-with-ominous-echoes-of-past-winters/[/url] or https://www.timesofisrael.com/cases-still-low-but-new-covid-strains-spreading-with-ominous-echoes-of-past-winters/


With ominous echoes of past winters, as the mercury is dropping, new COVID variants are spreading.

It’s just under a year since a world that was finally shedding its masks was shaken by the emergence of the Omicron variant. Within a few weeks of its November 24, 2021, documentation at the World Health Organization, it was infecting larger numbers than any previous strain.

A year earlier, winter in much of the northern hemisphere was dominated by the massive spread of the Alpha variant, then widely known as the UK variant. In Israel, this meant the third nationwide lockdown.


Today, descendants of the original Omicron are spreading fast. In many Asian countries a lineage called XBB is making major inroads.

In Europe, North America, Africa and Israel the BQ.1 family is on the rise. It accounts for about a third of cases in America. In Israel, it accounts for 17 percent of reported cases, according to Prof. Nadav Davidovitch, a top epidemiologist and a government coronavirus adviser.

We expect it to start spreading quickly, and this should raise our concerns and prompt us to vaccinate and take precautions,” he told The Times of Israel.

He said that experts are still waiting to understand vital facts about the BQ.1 variants, such as exactly how fast they spread, how well they dodge immunity and how severely they cause illness. But he said that weeks ago the government and top doctors were already discussing scenarios for possible winter variants.

“We held roundtables with all ministries and the Home Front Command,” said Davidovitch, a professor at Ben Gurion University and a leader in the Israel Association of Public Health Physicians. “We don’t know how case numbers will change, but we do know that every winter, upper respiratory illnesses can lead to a burden on the health system.

“One scenario we looked at involves lots of COVID, but in a variant like Omicron that often isn’t severe. Another scenario involves a new variant that is more severe than Omicron, like Delta was.

DJ...it will be the third pandemic-global-winter. In winter cases/deaths tend to increase. (1)The "variant-soup" is not the only factor making predictions difficult. More and more it is becoming clear (2)"host-history" also matters. Reinfections may do more harm...Vaccine/natural immunity looks like becoming less effective...A third factor is (3) co-infection with all kind of other illnesses...RSV itself may be mild-but on top of CoViD it will complicate things. 

So (4) healthcare exhausted may mean less care capacity with care demand at a record high level....

Outlook for coming winter/months is "bad"...Australia, Papua New Guinea, South Africa, South America -may be moving towards summer-but cases going up there as well. "Summer may no longer save lives"....

There are lots of tools that would help...but "we" made a choice of NOT using them....Masks would be simple-stopping lots of virus diseases...Limits to travel would stop "global viral tours"...Uganda may be doing a good job limiting Ebola to its borders...international air traffic is the motor behind pandemics....

Indie_SAGE [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4HHxFaPpNo[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4HHxFaPpNo with-again-lots of good info...

DJ-lots of experts watch in horror how "politics" simply ignore a fast growing socio-economic problem. From long CoViD (or better  to put it in; CoViD often lasting more then 4 weeks) to healthcare breaking up...running behind the facts-lack of pro-activity...Yesterday in NL another record warm day..."politicians telling to limit showers" before you get into the traffic jam...they go on anther plane for more bla-bla...

We are crashing...better enjoy the good days while they are there...worry does not help...History has had a lot of "dark times" we may learn from them...

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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part 2, 








FTX bankruptcy shows the company had 134 affiliates spread across the globe and may have liabilities of up to $50 billion. Enron had liabilities of $23 billion. FTX may be worse than Enron.

DJ...timing is bad...economy in the west already facing energy-linked high inflation....FTX may have had only very limited money of its own...as long as "crypto (DJ-criminal) money" went up-no problems...The link with the pandemic is in a need to have a functioning economy to have a functioning healthcare....Economic collapse = healthcare collapse...FTX may be part of the story...(with political links). 

CoViD....


Cruise ship 'Majestic Princess' has arrived in Sydney with more than 800 COVID cases on board

-

Denis - The COVID info guy -

@BigBadDenis
·
All guests aboard the Majestic Princess cruise ship will be allowed to disembark despite COVID status. #COVID19nsw
Show this thread

-

Replying to 
I'm a travel agent and have been waiting for this. All the cruislines have dropped vaccine mandates starting August and then all testing requirements late September.  It was only a matter of time. So sad.

DJ....








So why are so many kids experiencing severe illness from seasonal viruses? Emerging evidence suggests COVID-19 may be to blame, Furness says. “COVID, like many viruses, harms the immune system as part of its strategy” ‘Immunity debt’ is ‘misinformation’

link [url]https://globalnews.ca/news/9272293/immunity-debt-covid-19-misinformation/[/url] or https://globalnews.ca/news/9272293/immunity-debt-covid-19-misinformation/ ...

[url]https://drericding.substack.com/p/avoid-repeat-infectionsrisk-of-death?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email[/url] or https://drericding.substack.com/p/avoid-repeat-infectionsrisk-of-death?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email ;

Some people are delusional that if they survived their first bout with COVID, then they will be immune and protected forever. Some are even more delusional that each subsequent infection will be milder and milder. I cannot emphasize enough how wrong this way of thinking is!

Aside from continuing to spread COVID, and the Long COVID risks itself from 1st infections— it seems that the cumulative higher risk of death, hospitalization, and other COVID-related illnesses like cardiovascular and neurological damage CONTINUES TO BUILD UP with more infections… below I summarize the latest study in Nature Medicine.

-

Reinfected patients had a more than doubled risk of death and a more than tripled risk of hospitalization compared with those who were infected with COVID just once.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-02051-3

Compared to no reinfection, reinfection contributed additional risks of death (hazard ratio (HR) = 2.17, hospitalization (HR = 3.32) & risks of pulmonary, cardiovascular, hematological, diabetes, gastrointestinal, kidney, mental health, musculoskeletal & neurological disorders.

The risks were evident regardless of vaccination status. (This doesn’t mean vaccination doesn’t work—it just means reinfections adds risk on top regardless of background shot) The risks were most pronounced in the acute phase but persisted in the post-acute phase at 6 months.

DJ...vaccines may limit risks (also for "long" CoViD-by now the most widespread form of CoViD).

So how LONG do the higher risk persist? At least 180+ days. Highest in first month but it stays elevated for death and hospitalizations and other diseases well into 4 months and beyond likely 6 months too. Bottomline: #LongCovid is real— and AVOID REINFECTION!!

-

ABSOLUTE vs RELATIVE effect — so, COVID minimizers say the risk is “low”. But that’s now let’s look at the absolute excess risk— which the table shows is 100 excess hospitalizations per 1000 reinfections… that 1 hospitalization extra per ever 10 reinfections! NOT LOW damnit.

DJ...CoViD kills....healthcare by now is overstretched by far...








It’s the worst I have seen in my 14 years on staff.  The extent of illness is severe.  Multiple viral infections, often in the same child.  Superimposed secondary bacterial infections with catastrophic implications and incredible morbidity.  Please wear a damn mask!

DJ...children simply being ignored....

End of part 2

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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DJ, 

-Insanity...[url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/11/there-is-no-carbon-budget.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/11/there-is-no-carbon-budget.html ;

Arctic-news has long said that the suggestion of a carbon budget is part of a narrative that polluters seek to spread, i.e. that there was some budget left to be divided among polluters, as if polluters could safely continue to pollute for years to come before thresholds would be reached that could make life uncomfortable, such as a rise of 1.5°C above pre-industrial. 

DJ...translating that "strategy" to the pandemic; as long as profits can be made "we can live with the virus"....even if it would be killing hundreds of millions of people...profits matter, people do NOT matter...Countries following this "road" still calling themselves "democracy" are an insult to thinking, moral...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/zoonosis/canada-first-evidence-of-deer-to-human-transmission/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/zoonosis/canada-first-evidence-of-deer-to-human-transmission/

A recent report from Sunnybrook Hospital in Toronto, Canada, gives details of a highly mutated strain of SARS-CoV-2, and evidence of deer-to-human transmission.

We carried out an observational surveillance study in Ontario, Canada during November and December 2021 (n = 300 deer) and identified a highly divergent lineage of SARS-CoV-2 in white-tailed deer (B.1.641). This lineage is one of the most divergent SARS-CoV-2 lineages identified so far, with 76 mutations (including 37 previously associated with non-human mammalian hosts).

From a set of five complete and two partial deer-derived viral genomes we applied phylogenomic, recombination, selection and mutation spectrum analyses, which provided evidence for evolution and transmission in deer and a shared ancestry with mink-derived virus. Our analysis also revealed an epidemiologically linked human infection. Taken together, our findings provide evidence for sustained evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in white-tailed deer and of deer-to-human transmission.

 

Nature Magazine: Divergent SARS-CoV-2 variant emerges in white-tailed deer with deer-to-human transmission

Sunnybrook Hospital press release

DJ...in short a mutation-variant managed to jump from mink to deer to end up in a human....

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/u-s-study-shows-that-sars-cov-2-has-already-spread-extensively-in-the-wildlife-expect-debut-of-sars-cov-3-sometime-in-2023[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/u-s-study-shows-that-sars-cov-2-has-already-spread-extensively-in-the-wildlife-expect-debut-of-sars-cov-3-sometime-in-2023 

DJ-Since we miss most cases...only sequence a tiny % of them-it is very likely "animal linked mutations" are already spreading in some new variants of CoViD...if you want to name that "SARS-3" is just giving it a name...Some mutations in animals may be high risk if they reach humans...wich at present only is just a matter of time...we are NOT stopping the pandemics....

-[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table a look at cases;

Global still -9%, Europe -27%, North America -44%, Asia +10%, South America +66% (!!!!), Africa +22%, Oceania +2%...so I do not know how worldometers weighs the regions...Asia has over half the global population...on the other hand China cases +104% still has 4,000 cases last week-8, 000 cases last 7 days...(with some claims yesterday China did see over 10,000 new cases-higher infectiousness with same restrictions= more spread...). Europe and North America-in these statistics-only see cases decreasing...with poor testing...

Ebola...

Update: There appears to be good news on Ebola in Uganda. Yesterday there was one reported case and none in the previous 4 days. There were only 7 cases in the past 13 days. Reported cases have decreased in the past 3 weeks. 

welcome news...it did NOT follow the MPX route...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory "only" 90,000 cases were tested/reported...real number much higher...

Still CoViD;

Here is a chef with no sense of smell or taste, there are  pilots and analysts with brain fog, athletes with heart and lung damage, healthcare providers and teachers with immune system damage, industries with disabled workers. This is living with the virus.

DJ...there is discussion on decrease of immunity protection-resulting in more room for other diseases...Excess deaths have been higher in 2022 then the previous years...sticking to "only 4 weeks" CoViD is ignoring millions of cases that last longer....Reality is millions of deaths will have CoViD-damage links..."long"CoVid IS !!! CoViD !!!








Natural Reinfection with Respiratory Syncytial Virus Does Not Boost Virus-Specific T-Cell Immunity | Pediatric Research 👇 “Immunity debt” narrative as it is presented, is a take unsupported/contradicted by evidence.

"boosting immunity via infection" is like burning your house down to protect it against fire...madness....

China-Bejing...








Beijing COVID cases: 1 November: 23 7 November: 59 8 November: 64 9 November: 80 10 November: 95 11 November: 118 (record) 12 November: 116 13 November: 235 (record) 14 November: 407 (record)

...we have a problem...

End of part 1...more later...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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DJ-Today-november 15 2022- [url]https://www.un.org/en/desa/world-population-reach-8-billion-15-november-2022[/url] or https://www.un.org/en/desa/world-population-reach-8-billion-15-november-2022 ;

The global population is projected to reach 8 billion on 15 November 2022, and India is projected to surpass China as the world’s most populous country in 2023, according to World Population Prospects 2022, released today on World Population Day.


On India/China [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/visualizing-indias-population-growth-2022-2100[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/visualizing-indias-population-growth-2022-2100 ;

China’s Population is Aging Faster Than India’s

These days, China has one of the most rapidly aging populations in the world. By 2040, it’s expected that 28% of the country’s population will be over the age of 60.

In contrast, India’s population is relatively young—half of its population is under 30, and only an eighth is over 60.

Does this mean that India’s GDP will eventually outpace China’s? Not necessarily.

As quoted in an article published in Business Standard, Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist of the Bank of Baroda says that India needs to increase its labor participation, as well as general access to education, in order to reap the benefits of its increasing working-age population.

As of 2022, India’s workforce participation rate sits at 46%, compared to China’s 68%. How will this change in the future?

DJ, the general idea is that better educated women have less children-on average...(there will be very well educated women with lots of children...women without much education without children...it is the big picture). [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_growth[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_growth 

See also [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population_growth_rate[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population_growth_rate 

and [url]https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/ 

DJ-8 billion people make 8 billion "human hosts" for infections....

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/news/beijing-dont-leave-home-unless-necessary-after-covid-cases-rise/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/news/beijing-dont-leave-home-unless-necessary-after-covid-cases-rise/ ;

The Chinese newspaper Global Times is reporting that residents of Beijing are being advised not to leave home unless necessary due to a surge in Covid-19 cases.

Covid cases in China have risen from just a few hundred a day recently to over 16,000 a day today. 

Beijing health authorities stated on Monday to further strengthen epidemic preventionand control measures and reminded residents not to go out unless necessary. Nucleic acid testing sites for large-scale testing that have been set up along the roadsides and around commercial and office areas in Chaoyang district are temporarily closed starting from Monday. The measures are seen as a response to the mounting pressure of soaring COVID-19 cases in the city.

The capital city reported 237 confirmed cases and 170 asymptomatic infections on Monday, 48 infections were found during nucleic acid testing at the community level, according to local health authorities.

Global Times report

DJ, China may be on the list of countries putting public health above profits...The "western" "living with the virus-profits first" barbarism is becoming more and more a motor behind the pandemics...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/news/covid-19-activates-the-same-inflammatory-response-in-the-brain-as-parkinsons-disease/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/news/covid-19-activates-the-same-inflammatory-response-in-the-brain-as-parkinsons-disease/ 

and [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/individuals-with-acute-ischemic-stroke-and-covid-19-showed-higher-rates-of-intracranial-bleeding-issues-and-worse-clinical-outcomes[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/individuals-with-acute-ischemic-stroke-and-covid-19-showed-higher-rates-of-intracranial-bleeding-issues-and-worse-clinical-outcomes 

"Long CoViD' by now is the most widespread form of CoViD. Excess deaths this year are even higher then in 2021, 2020 for almost all places...NOT linking that to CoViD is lying...yet another form of denialism....[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table does not see updates from most countries on a daily basis...Asia, South America however keep showing strong increase of cases....

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4HHxFaPpNo[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4HHxFaPpNo Indie_SAGE (last video) a.o. discussing on can a disease run out of mutations...DJ-Most mutations (recombination could be seen as a large mutation) results in a weaker virus...less able to infect, spread...For lots of diseases immunity will bring an end to larger spread...Problem is CoViD is that widespread; billions of humans-very likely over 100 other species, even if only 1% of the mutations would be bad it can go on for quite some time...

End of part 1 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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DJ, part 2,

It is sad to see the [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_G20_Bali_summit[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_G20_Bali_summit becoming another battle zone. 

The G20 or Group of Twenty is an intergovernmental forum comprising 19 countries and the European Union (EU). It works to address major issues related to the global economy, such as international financial stabilityclimate change mitigation, and sustainable development.[2]

The G20 is composed of most of the world's largest economies, including both industrialized and developing nations; it accounts for around 80% of gross world product (GWP),[3] 59–77% of international trade,[b] two-thirds of the global population,[4] and 60% of the world's land area.

The "west-rest" conflict may bring an end to the G20...with non-western countries moving towards the BRICS/SCO and "the west" (about 10% of the global population) pushing for more conflicts trying to dominate the world...The most likely outcome is not only western organizations like NATO, EU breaking up-but also more "regionalism" resulting in Scotland, Catalunya (Bavaria/Bayern ?) breaking away...

The pandemic most likely will NOT be an issue at the G20....

Routine mass community #SARS2 testing is the pillar of China's #ZeroCOVIDpolicy. Abandonment means they decided to let it rip. They're trying to transition slowly but from our experience, we know it doesn't work without mass testing, thorough contact tracing & central quarantine.

Zero-CoViD strategy is costly...








Immunology of Long COVID explained by Prof. Iwasaki Seen more: 1. Exhausted T cells (CD4 & CD8) 2. Activated B cells 3. Anti EBV 4. Anti Spike antibodies, low neutralising Seen less: 1. Cortisol 2. CD4 central memory cells Unchanged: Autoantibodies https://youtu.be/jt8K1Q7V7YA?t=918

NOT going for that may be even more costly....

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/announcement-free-amoxicillin-stocks-for-hospitals-and-individuals-in-the-united-states-due-to-shortages,-courtesy-of-thailand-medical-news[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/announcement-free-amoxicillin-stocks-for-hospitals-and-individuals-in-the-united-states-due-to-shortages,-courtesy-of-thailand-medical-news  offering antibiotics for the US....

Masks do prevent infection/spread...excess deaths in children are high 

Roland Baker

@RolandBakerIII
·
Diagnostic accuracy of SARS-CoV-2 rapid antigen self-tests in asymptomatic individuals in the Omicron period: cross sectional study: Sensitivities were 27.5%  for Flowflex, 20.9% for MPBio, and 25.6% for Clinitest. They saw ~40 with viral load cut-off. 🤦‍♂️ https://clinicalmicrobiologyandinfection.com/article/S1198-743X(22)00570-5/fulltext

and self-testing may give false sense of security....

DJ-Like in climate change (a.o. increasing earthquake risks) discussion also in pandemic discussions "number games" are being played...Ignoring excess deaths extremely high-sticking to "CoViD=over in 4 weeks" both "long CoViD' and millions of deaths are kept out of statistics...








Antiviral innate immunity is diminished in the upper respiratory tract of severe COVID-19 patients.  "SARS-CoV2 infection elicits interferon expression leading to transcription of IFN-stimulated genes to control viral replication and spread."

DJ, decrease of immunity = more disease(s)....very simple....








The pandemic, for a moment, wobbled the foundations of the drug industry, with calls to elevate lives above profit. Yet the world now seems no closer to vaccine equity. What, if anything, has been learnt?  reports

link [url]https://www.bmj.com/content/379/bmj.o2592[/url] or https://www.bmj.com/content/379/bmj.o2592 ;

“I personally don’t believe that in a time of pandemic there should be exclusive licenses,” the researcher Adrian Hill declared to the New York Times in the spring of 2021. Hill and others at Oxford University, UK, had produced what was then the world’s leading covid-19 vaccine candidate and planned to offer it to manufacturers royalty free. But the insurgency was put down before it ever got off the ground.

Oxford swiftly and exclusively licensed its technology to the UK based pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca. The agreement did include a “non-profit” agreement: initially priced at cost, the vaccine saved more lives from covid-19 than any other in its first year of circulation.1 Yet the no-profit pledge also unleashed a withering crossfire—equity advocates alleging grotesque hypocrisy on one side, market forces on the other.

Financial media in the US “clearly didn’t like the idea of a low cost vaccine, undercutting the market,” Hill told the Financial Times.2 AstraZeneca’s vaccine won regulatory approval the world over, but not in the US.

Fast forward a year to 2022, and AstraZeneca seems to be exiting the stage before the pandemic ends (box 1), its good deed having earned the company a reputational thrashing.3 Few speak of the AstraZeneca vaccine, while its rivals Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech look set to profit from ongoing booster shots tailored to new covid-19 variants. These two companies have hauled in billions of dollars during the pandemic and paved the way for a new line of therapeutics based on their mRNA vaccine technology.

DJ...why end a pandemic when you can make profits out of it ? It should be a point of discussion on the G20-but it is not....Most countries do NOT use mRNA-vaccines for profit....but cheaper Chinese, Indian, Russian vaccines...

Australia...

I have made graphs about the variant soup in Australia, because of 2 new variants that are gaining ground there. BR.2.1 is found mostly in New South Wales and XBF in Victoria. But other states and countries are following! They both look really fast, but it's still early.

and

I took parental lineages to show in the graph. This might mean growth underestimation. BR.2* instead of BR.2.1, because BR.2.1's have an extra ORF8 mutation, but since ORF8 is not always being sequenced, they cannot be distinguished, eg.

DJ, I have given up on following new variants...impossible job-even hard for experts...[url]https://twitter.com/dfocosi/status/1592111415942598656/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/dfocosi/status/1592111415942598656/photo/1

BREAKING—Cambodian President tests #COVID19 positive after Bali ASEAN summit with Biden. However,  somehow ridiculously claims Biden was not a close contact. Where the heck does CDC invent these arbitrary rules?! HT 

DJ...a photo of Cambodian PM talking into biden's ear....But biden tested negative this morning (and followed CDC rules-washing his hands....









We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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DJ...

-In latest news my view on "the Poland-incident". For now it looks like an Ukraine airdefense missile ended up in Poland. 

Maybe on "predictions";

If you asked "informed people" early june 1939 what the world would look like 5 and 10 years further...so early june 1944, 49...most likely-on the global story-maybe 0,1% of the people would come close...For the US citizen the situation did not change that much as it did for a Dutch, German or Polish person...

I (DJ) realize that "my views" on some points may be close to the 0,1% "shared idea's"....Maybe Ukraine war outcome of NATO expansionism is shared by 1% of fellow Dutch/western people...My idea of "freeze" to get out of the CoViD pandemic more 0,1% or even less...

There are quite radical idea's on climate change [url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/11/there-is-no-carbon-budget.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/11/there-is-no-carbon-budget.html I think a lot of climate scientists may agree on "no carbon budget"....but disagreement may start on what to do next...

Historians very likely agree on [url]https://southfront.org/the-real-reason-america-used-nuclear-weapons-against-japan-it-was-not-to-end-the-war-or-save-lives/[/url] or https://southfront.org/the-real-reason-america-used-nuclear-weapons-against-japan-it-was-not-to-end-the-war-or-save-lives/ -agreeing may be 90%+ of historians...One of the hardest part in the WW-2/Japan story is that war could have been over maybe even in february '45....It would have avoided Russian/Soviet (stalin) forces moving into what would become North Korea, Kurils, Sachalin...maybe even stopped mao in China...If Japan had given up the war-on the condition the emperor could stay-in february '45 then maybe Germany may have stopped its war earlier...it would have saved so many lives....

-Why I go for the 1%,0,1% story ? In this pandemic even the best experts have different views-based on their info...Different views are welcome-we need to learn !

Eventough "a pandemic" was expected my impression is that we still were not ready for it...Another "mistake" may be dealing with CoViD as if it is a flu-like illness...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_coronavirus[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_coronavirus are NOT new !!!!

The history of coronaviruses is an account of the discovery of the diseases caused by coronaviruses and the diseases they cause. It starts with the first report of a new type of upper-respiratory tract disease among chickens in North Dakota, U.S., in 1931. The causative agent was identified as a virus in 1933. By 1936, the disease and the virus were recognised as unique from other viral disease. They became known as infectious bronchitis virus (IBV), but later officially renamed as Avian coronavirus.

A new brain disease of mice (murine encephalomyelitis) was discovered in 1947 at Harvard Medical School in Boston. The virus causing the disease was called JHM (after Harvard pathologist John Howard Mueller). Three years later a new mouse hepatitis was reported from the National Institute for Medical Research in London. The causative virus was identified as mouse hepatitis virus (MHV),[1][2] later renamed Murine coronavirus.

In 1961, a virus was obtained from a school boy in Epsom, England, who was suffering from common cold. The sample designated B814 was confirmed as novel virus in 1965. New common cold viruses (assigned 229E) collected from medical students at the University of Chicago were also reported in 1966. Structural analyses of IBV, MHV, B814 and 229E using transmission electron microscopy revealed that they all belong to the same group of viruses. Making a crucial comparison in 1967, June Almeida and David Tyrrell invented the collective name coronavirus, as all those viruses were characterised by solar corona-like projections (called spikes) on their surfaces.[3]

Other coronaviruses have been discovered from pigs, dogs, cats, rodents, cows, horses, camels, Beluga whales, birds and bats. As of 2022, 52 species are described. Bats are found to be the richest source of different species of coronaviruses. All coronaviruses originated from a common ancestor about 293 million years ago. Zoonotic species such as Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus (SARS-CoV), Middle East respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), a variant of SARS-CoV, emerged during the past two decades and caused the first pandemics of the 21st century.

DJ dealing with outbreaks has been problematic; [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus#Prevention_and_treatment[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus#Prevention_and_treatment ;

A number of vaccines using different methods have been developed against human coronavirus SARS-CoV-2.[145][146] Antiviral targets against human coronaviruses have also been identified such as viral proteases, polymerases, and entry proteins. Drugs are in development which target these proteins and the different steps of viral replication.[147][146]

Vaccines are available for animal coronaviruses IBV, TGEV, and Canine CoV, although their effectiveness is limited. In the case of outbreaks of highly contagious animal coronaviruses, such as PEDV, measures such as destruction of entire herds of pigs may be used to prevent transmission to other herds.[49]

DJ "culling/killing" possible infected animals to get a grip on CoViD-infection in animals...but "living with the virus" in humans...as if it only is "a cold"....I am NOT an expert-just trying to make some sense...with CoViD doing damage all over the body-possibly able to infect lots of species-is it not time to take CoViD more serious ? 

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-mit-study-finds-that-neurocovid-manifestations-in-post-infections-are-determined-by-immunologic-imprinting-from-previous-coronaviruses[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-mit-study-finds-that-neurocovid-manifestations-in-post-infections-are-determined-by-immunologic-imprinting-from-previous-coronaviruses re-infections, over and over [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/reinfection/covid-19-reinfections-increase-risk-of-organ-failure-death/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/reinfection/covid-19-reinfections-increase-risk-of-organ-failure-death/ ;

Catching Covid more than once ‘doubles your risk of death’

People who caught the virus more than once were found to be twice as likely to die and three times more likely to be hospitalised than people only infected once.

Those who were infected repeatedly were three and a half times more likely to end up with lung problems, three times more likely to get a heart condition and one and a half times more likely to have brain problems, compared with those who caught the virus just once.

Daily Telegraph report

 

Some Singapore scientists don’t agree with the study’s conclusions however:

Professor Ooi Eng Eong, an expert in emerging infectious diseases at Duke-NUS Medical School in Singapore, said he was “appalled at how this study got through peer review” and was published in the Nature Medicine journal last week.

The study said those reinfected were 3.5 times more likely to develop lung problems and three times more likely to suffer heart conditions. Prof Ooi pointed out that the study gave “very little information on what chronic diseases the cases with reinfection had”.

Nor did it look at patients who had other respiratory infections to find out if the higher risk is Covid-19-specific or if any viral infection exacerbates their underlying chronic diseases.

Agreeing, Professor Paul Tambyah, a senior infectious diseases consultant at National University Hospital (NUH) and president-elect of the International Society for Infectious Diseases, said the study had major problems.

Straits Times report

DJ...again stories can be very complex...excess deaths for 2022 are high [url]https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps[/url] or https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps but part of the reason may be in heat waves...

For now I stick to my "0,1% supported view" (if not less) that the way out of this pandemic is masks "every where", air travel to max 5% of pre-pandemic level, NO mass events, legal right to work/study from home...and all this maybe up for a year ? With mass testing and sequencing...not only for CoViD but also other diseases that could become problematic...like H5N1-behaving so much different in 2022...

But-reader-you are very welcome to have another view...I would love to be wrong...CoViD running out of mutations-developing into a cold in the coming months...(also a possible-more optimistic-scenario...). 

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Part 2, 

-International situation [url]https://thesaker.is/russia-india-china-iran-the-quad-that-really-matters/[/url] or https://thesaker.is/russia-india-china-iran-the-quad-that-really-matters/ DJ-The west may sanction the rest of the world-at the end it is damaging itself-basic materials, medication, medical tech comes more and more from non-western countries...The UK "health minister" rather import nurses than raise salaries ...the west is sliding into a recession. [url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/11/15/dutch-economy-shrank-02-third-quarter[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/11/15/dutch-economy-shrank-02-third-quarter ;

The Dutch economy contracted in the third quarter, Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reported. The contraction is mainly due to less investment in housing and infrastructure.

The economy shrank by 0.2 percent between July and September. Investments decreased by 1.7 percent. This is mainly because less was invested in housing and infrastructure, 0.4 percent and 4.2 percent, respectively. CBS noted that households spent slightly more than in the second quarter, namely 0.1 percent. Imports and exports also rose, by 1 and 0.9 percent, respectively.

and [url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/11/15/400000-dutch-people-afford-food-groceries-red-cross-says[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/11/15/400000-dutch-people-afford-food-groceries-red-cross-says ;

About 400,000 people in the Netherlands cannot afford food and groceries, the Red Cross estimated. More and more people are turning to the aid organization for food support. “People experience fruit and vegetables as an unattainable luxury,” Heleen van den Berg, head of national aid at the Dutch Red Cross, said in a statement.

“In a prosperous country like the Netherlands, nobody should worry about getting enough food,” Van den Berg said. “Yet every day, we hear from people that they have to skip meals. We also hear that parents don’t eat to ensure that their children can.”


The Red Cross recently started distributing breakfast packages in Friesland and Utrecht. The aid organization works with partner organizations like community centers to ensure these €10 food packages reach struggling families so that kids don’t have to go to school hungry. In Friesland, about 600 kids get breakfast every week. In Utrecht, there are about 120, and the Red Cross expects it to increase quickly.

DJ [url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/11/10/half-dutch-cant-afford-health-insurance-premiums-expect-switch-insurers[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/11/10/half-dutch-cant-afford-health-insurance-premiums-expect-switch-insurers ;

A massive 43 percent of Netherlands residents fear they will no longer be able to afford their health insurance after insurers announce the premiums for next year, BNR reports based on a study by comparison site Independer. The healthcare industry expects a record number of people to switch health insurers this year, NU.nl reports.

On Budget Day, the Ministry of Public Health announced that the basic health insurance package would increase by 127 euros to 1,649 euros per year. Health insurers use this calculation premium as a guideline when increasing their premiums. All health insurers must announce their rates by November 12. DSW already announced its basic health insurance premium would increase by 9.75 euros per month.


The Ministry also announced that health insurers will no longer be allowed to give a discount on collective health insurance next year. This collective discount is now up to 5 percent, and about two-thirds of Netherlands residents have such a collective discount, according to BNR.

All in all, Netherlands residents can expect a significant price increase for health insurance next year. According to the Independer study, 81 percent worry about the coming price increase, and nearly half expect to be unable to afford it. Forty percent said they would consider switching insurers.


Every year, about 1.2 million Netherlands residents switch health insurers in November and December. That is about 7 percent of the total. “This year, many more people will be looking for a new policy,” Wim Groot, the professor of Health Economics at the University of Maastricht, said to NU.nl. “I think we’ll see a record number of switchers, definitely over 8 percent.” The Dutch healthcare authority NZa and the Independer also expect many more switchers at the end of this year.

In NL by law you have to have basic healthinsurance...We had "government basic healthcare" before "liberal politics" made a "market" out of healthcare...Economists warned costs would increase if "consumers" also had to pay for profits and "managers" ....

DJ-In most western countries economic outlook is NOT good. Inflation is high-income de facto is decreasing...neo-liberalism policies also decreased spending on care-even in a pandemic...(Spending on war and weapons further increased...). 

Every reinfection causes significant health impacts. Reinfections are worse than the first one.

and

uché blackstock, md

@uche_blackstock
·
In theory, we knew repeated COVID reinfections were bad, but a study out today in @Nature of 5.8 million people shows that each reinfection significantly increases the risks of complications, like diabetes and kidney problems, hospitalizations and death. https://reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/repeat-covid-is-riskier-than-first-infection-study-finds-2022-11-10/

DJ [url]https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/getting-second-covid-19-infection-not-more-dangerous-say-s-pore-experts-rebutting-us-study[/url] or https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/getting-second-covid-19-infection-not-more-dangerous-say-s-pore-experts-rebutting-us-study some discussion on this study...

Still excess deaths, pressure on healthcare should be alarming...(but gets ignored...). 

Ugandan leader says anti-Ebola efforts starting to succeed Two districts where the deadly haemorrhagic fever had spread previously were now free of the disease after they completed the 42 days - or two incubation cycles - of the virus without a case

Welcome good news...potential risk of further spread of Ebola in East/Central Africa was seen as "high" by the WHO earlier...Uganda may be doing a very good job !

China approves first homegrown COVID antiviral The country’s drug regulator has granted conditional authorization for an HIV drug to be used to treat COVID-19.

DJ...China and India -both population over 1,4 billion (!) are able to "provide the world" with enough affordable medication/medical gear...(profits NOT the main goal...Iran-Cuba a.o. also working in joined projects-meant to provide help...not profit...). 








Covid reinfection day 18: I was rushed to the ER again yesterday. Docs say it's another stroke. Ct scans show one of my aneurysms is also increased in size. Having trouble communicating & engagement but could use encouragement. I'm really scared y'all.

DJ-terrible stories....we need to take CoViD much more serious-it can kill in lots of ways....








Delighted to share our team’s latest mucosal vaccine work for #COVID19 online now ! In pre-clinical models, a novel subunit vaccine delivered simply by breathing in through the nose, completely protects from infection https://rdcu.be/cZIU6  

More welcome news








OUCH! UK #inflation rises more than expected to 41y high of 11.1%, adding to pressure on Bank of England to raise interest rates again. Energy prices rose most after increase in power and gas costs. Poorer households are feeling higher rate of inflation. https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-16/uk-inflation-jumps-more-than-expected-to-41-year-high-of-11-1?sref=R17xFhjo

and more bad news...you can not have healthcare if the economy is collapsing (because of bizarre politics...). 


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DJ....twitter does not do a good job on this forum....twitter is a main source of info for me-and twitter now is also becoming a battle zone....

Some medical/pandemic stories;

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/treatment/paxlovid/research-14-6-of-hospitalized-patients-with-covid-19-had-a-medical-contraindication-to-paxlovid/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/treatment/paxlovid/research-14-6-of-hospitalized-patients-with-covid-19-had-a-medical-contraindication-to-paxlovid/ ;

“We examined the prevalence of contraindications to nirmatrelvir-ritonavir in patients hospitalized with COVID-19. We hypothesized that the rate would be high in these patients.”

Of the 62 525 remaining patients .. (14.6%) had a medical contraindication to nirmatrelvir-ritonavir.

Prevalence of Contraindications to Nirmatrelvir-Ritonavir Among Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19 at Risk for Progression to Severe Disease

DJ...august 25 link [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/research-paxlovid-of-no-benefit-to-the-under-65s/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/research-paxlovid-of-no-benefit-to-the-under-65s/ 

Welcome developments;

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-spanish-scientists-claim-that-cheap-natural-cyclodextrins-especially-beta-cyclodextrins-can-be-used-as-antivirals-against-sars-cov-2[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-spanish-scientists-claim-that-cheap-natural-cyclodextrins-especially-beta-cyclodextrins-can-be-used-as-antivirals-against-sars-cov-2 

and [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/u-s-study-findings-shows-that-vitamin-d-supplementation-can-lower-risk-of-covid-19-severity-and-even-reduce-spread-of-sars-cov-2[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/u-s-study-findings-shows-that-vitamin-d-supplementation-can-lower-risk-of-covid-19-severity-and-even-reduce-spread-of-sars-cov-2 

DJ, there are lots of ways to limit pandemics/infectious diseases....masks, legal right to work/study from home (if possible), travel restrictions...vaccines did a good job in lots of diseases.

Good trustworthy info may be essential -in the CoViD pandemic often that info simply went "political" ...putting economy above public health...

[url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data and [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table indicators;

Global cases -9%, Asia, South America, Africa cases increasing-but due to often NOT daily reporting Oceania/Australia cases now decreasing (Australia (states) updates once a week ?). 

If countries even fail to agree on reporting of CoViD cases how are we supposed to deal with the pandemic ?????

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/962955-cidrap-who-details-4-more-mers-cases-in-saudi-arabia[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/962955-cidrap-who-details-4-more-mers-cases-in-saudi-arabia ;The World Health Organization (WHO) yesterday posted an update on Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in Saudi Arabia that covers four cases reported by the country since the WHO's last update in April. Three of the patients had recent contact with camels. No secondary cases were reported, and none were fatal.

The WHO said the four MERS-CoV cases were reported between Dec 29, 2021, and Oct 31, 2022. Symptom onsets ranged from Dec 27 through Jun 9. All patients—three men and a woman—are aged 23 to 68 years and weren't healthcare workers. All had underlying conditions and were hospitalized. The men had contact with camels and had consumed camel milk. The agriculture ministry's related investigations identified the virus in camels in those three instances. So far, the 23-year-old woman's exposure source isn't known.

 [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MERS-related_coronavirus[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MERS-related_coronavirus ;MERS-CoV is one of several viruses identified by the World Health Organization (WHO) as a likely cause of a future epidemic. They list it for urgent research and development.[7][8]

DJ...there are risks in MERS/SARS-2 co-infections/recombinations. Chances for such an event may be very limited-number of (reported) MERS cases also very small and all likely linked to camels...However Corona viral diseases in animals WILL spread to humans...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states/other-diseases-ai/monkeypox-ab/950381-us-cdc-monkeypox-2022-situation-summary?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states/other-diseases-ai/monkeypox-ab/950381-us-cdc-monkeypox-2022-situation-summary?view=stream US-MPX cases 29,080 november 17, up from 29,055 november 16...[url]https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/response/2022/us-map.html[/url] or https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/response/2022/us-map.html 

The wiki-page [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory now over 90,000 reported (suspected) MPX-global cases...DJ-It is very welcome Uganda may be getting Ebola under control-but there are so many other potential high risk diseases-we have to limit air travel...STOP THE SPREAD !!!!

-International situation;

[url]https://thesaker.is/the-g20s-balinese-geopolitical-dance/[/url] or https://thesaker.is/the-g20s-balinese-geopolitical-dance/ ;

The traditional group photo ahead of the G20 – a staple of every summit in Asia – had to be delayed. Because – who else – “Biden” and Sunak, US and UK, refused to be in the same picture with Lavrov.

Such childish, un-diplomatic hysterics is profoundly disrespectful towards ritual Balinese graciousness, politeness and a non-confrontational ethos.

DJ...western politics has fallen into the hands of complete idiots....

The Americans suddenly interested in talking, and Macron and Scholz approaching Lavrov, point to the heart of the matter: the EU and the UK may not survive next winter, 2023-2024, without Gazprom.

The IEA has calculated that the overall deficit by then will approach 30 billion cubic meters. And that presupposes “ideal” circumstances this coming winter: mostly warm; China still under lockdowns; much lower gas consumption in Europe; even increased production (from Norway?)

The IEA ‘s models are working with two or three waves of price increases in the next 12 months. EU budgets are already on red alert – compensating the losses caused by the current energy suicide. By the end of 2023, that may reach 1 trillion euros.

Any additional, unpredictable costs throughout 2023 mean that the EU economy will completely collapse: industry shutdown across the spectrum, euro in free fall, rise of inflation, debt corroding every latitude from the Club Med nations to France and Germany.

Dominatrix Ursula von der Leyen, leading the European Commission (EC), of course should be discussing all that – in the interests of EU nations – with global players in Bali. Instead her only agenda, once again, was demonization of Russia. No niskala here; just tawdry cognitive dissonance.

DJ...with higher interest rates most western countries see debts increase (more interests to be paid...). So LESS money for healthcare while healthcare issues only increase...

We can not solve global problems if we are not going for cooperation. DJ-My view; biden blames Russia for the trump presidency-and so biden wants regime change in Russia...If only 10% of this could be correct we can not survive...western "political insanity" is killing us...[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/covert-intel-nuclear-cruise-missile-shot-down-over-kiev-this-morning[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/covert-intel-nuclear-cruise-missile-shot-down-over-kiev-this-morning ;

Simply put, Kh-55 and Kh-555 use basically the same rocket, but with a different payload. However, it is simply impossible for this to be an accident; the X-55 cruise missile itself would have had to be pulled from Russia's separate and segregated nuclear storage.  They don't have these missiles just laying around everywhere so someone could grab one by mistake.

This is, perhaps, the single most frightening display of Russia's willingness to win, ever undertaken.  This incident changes everything for the US and for NATO because it makes clear the Russians will not back down, are not intimidated, and will not stop no matter what the US or NATO do.

Intel Circuits are blazing with the interpretation that this is a final warning to Kiev and to the US/EU/NATO

It was just a couple weeks ago that news outlets in the US and EU reported word from a senior US Intelligence official that there had been "worrisome developments with Russia's nuclear arsenal."   At the time, the official would not say what those developments were.   Now, we know.

DJ...Also on the G20 meeting it was clear (Pepe Escobar/the saker) ;

The Western spin is that “most G20 countries” wanted to condemn Russia in Ukraine. Nonsense. Diplomatic sources hinted it may be in fact a 50/50 split. Condemnation comes from Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, South Korea, UK, US and EU. Non-condemnation from Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkiye and of course Russia.

Graphically: Global South against Global North.

again; pandemics, climate change, fiat currencies, wars are the outcome of bad politics...

I may give twitter a try in part 2-end of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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part 2...twitter;

If people don't know the consequences, they can't make informed decisions. Covid causes damage to the brain, heart, vascular system, immune system. It is a systemic disease that changes life for the worse, causes sudden death, reducing life expectancy. Avoid the next infection

and








If you haven't been infected, you really want to avoid being infected. If you've been infected once, you *really* want to avoid being infected twice. If you've been infected twice, you **really** want to avoid being infected three times.

information is the main "instrument" to deal with any crisis...If "politics" go for a "political phantasy" they simply fail to do their job !








China reports 25,353 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase since April. It includes a record 466 cases in Beijing

and

U.S. COVID update: - New cases: 104,862 - Average: 40,438 - States reporting: 27/50 - In hospital: 28,372 (+340) - In ICU: 3,397 (-19) - New deaths: 1,006 - Average: 335 (+32)

DJ-BNO, some people at wikipedia, others, doing their best to try to get info...Worldometers has for China cases going up 98%-from last week 5,992 cases-this week 11,887...so a major gap in statistics...US cases -22%, 264,702 last week to 207,667 last 7 days...just to underline [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table "limits"....

Again-unity in definition, counting, reporting would make it much "easier/better" able to follow the pandemics....[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/960091-covid-19-variants-going-into-fall-and-winter-2022-2023-ba-2-75-ba-4-bq-1-1-ba-2-xbb-bs-1-1-bf-7-ba-5-1-7[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/960091-covid-19-variants-going-into-fall-and-winter-2022-2023-ba-2-75-ba-4-bq-1-1-ba-2-xbb-bs-1-1-bf-7-ba-5-1-7 flutrackers also good info !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/962949-cidrap-post-covid-epilepsy-rare-but-more-common-than-after-flu[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/962949-cidrap-post-covid-epilepsy-rare-but-more-common-than-after-flu 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/962806-northern-hemisphere-flu-activity-picks-up-pace[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/962806-northern-hemisphere-flu-activity-picks-up-pace ;

Northern Hemisphere flu activity picks up pace


https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-pers...ity-picks-pace

Northern Hemisphere flu activity picks up pace


Filed Under:
Influenza, General;
Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV)

Flu activity in the Northern Hemisphere is rising, with levels up sharply over the past few weeks in North America, the World Health Organization (WHO) said yesterday in its latest global flu update, which roughly covers the last half of October.

The WHO's update also covered other respiratory infections, including respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), which is on the rise in several parts of the world.

In the United States and Canada, flu activity was above national baselines for this time of year, with the H3N2 strain predominant. Both countries are experiencing increased RSV activity. Europe's flu activity is also rising, especially in Germany, Portugal, and Spain, but is still considered low.

Other areas seeing rises include Kazakhstan in central Asia, plus some countries on the Arabian Peninsula. Flu increased sharply in southern Asia, led by brisk activity in Iran.

Some of South America's temperate countries reported rising flu markers, including Argentina, Chile, and Uruguay.

Other countries with available information reporting rises in RSV illness include France, Ireland, South Korea, and Brazil.

Of respiratory samples testing positive for flu at national labs during the latter part of October, 92.8% were influenza A. Of the subtyped flu A samples, 78.8% were H3N2. Of the subtyped influenza B samples, all belonged to the Victoria lineage.
Child's death from flu, RSV in California


In a related development, the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) yesterday reported the first death of the winter season from flu and RSV in a child younger than 5. It said young children are most vulnerable to severe complications from RSV in flu, especially if they have underlying health conditions or were born premature.

Because of patient confidentiality, the CDPH did not release any other details about the case.

Owing to a further rise in hospitalizations from an early winter virus season, the CDPH also issued new guidance for responding to a surge of infections in pediatric patients, which allows hospitals to reconfigure space to accommodate the surge.

The CDPH also recommended that inpatient and outpatient facilities without existing pediatric services explore short-term measures to expand capacity for treating pediatric patients.

DJ...coinfection of CoViD and other diseases increase risks....








Covid-19 could reactivate many virus in your body cell, reveals study   

link [url]https://www.livemint.com/news/india/covid19-could-reactivate-many-virus-in-your-body-cell-reveals-study-11668682763822.html[/url] or https://www.livemint.com/news/india/covid19-could-reactivate-many-virus-in-your-body-cell-reveals-study-11668682763822.html ;

A study published in the journal Frontiers in Immunology, has shown that a patient of Covid -19 might witness the reactivation of latent diseases in their body following previous infections, particularly in people with chronic fatigue syndrome. 

The Chronic fatigue Syndrome or myalgic encephalomyelitis is where the patient suffers from severe, long-term fatigue, post-exertional malaise, pain and sleep problems. The origin or cause of this diseases in a patient has not been defined yet, however, the study has said that the onset in most cases follows a viral or bacterial infection.

Following the same analogy, the study conducted by the researchers have shown that Covid-19 has the potential to re-activate the chronic fatigue disease in a patient along with other latent diseases. 

The research team, in collaboration with the Bragee Clinic in Stockholm, initiated a study early in the pandemic, involving 95 patients who had been diagnosed with ME/CFS and 110 healthy controls. They provided blood and saliva samples on four occasions during one year.

DJ As far as I know there may be different forms of ME-CFS [url]https://www.moleculeralabs.com/chronic-fatigue-immune-dysfunction-syndrome[/url] or https://www.moleculeralabs.com/chronic-fatigue-immune-dysfunction-syndrome ;

Chronic fatigue: an immune dysfunction syndrome?

The exact cause of chronic fatigue syndrome is still unknown. But mounting evidence suggests that an underlying biological process, such as an immune dysfunction, triggered by an infection, plays an important role in the onset of disease.


Not surprisingly, CFS is often referred to as an immune dysfunction syndrome. It frequently appears in people who have been sick. An estimated 50% to 70% of patients with chronic fatigue syndrome report that their symptoms started after they had a viral-like illness 2 or infection. 3

Furthermore, a significant number of CFS patients have other immune or autoimmune diseases, such as fibromyalgia or Hashimoto’s disease. And, these individuals frequently have a family history of autoimmune disease. 4

In 2019 researchers reported, “For the first time, we have shown that people who are prone to develop a CFS-like illness have an overactive immune system, both before and during a challenge to the immune system.” 5

These findings add to the “growing weight of scientific evidence which indicates that the body’s immune system is playing an important role in the causation of CFS,” wrote Dr. Charles Shepherd, medical advisor at the ME Association. 5

DJ..."long CoViD" may be having CFS/CF-IDS links (Chronic Fatigue -Immune Dysfunction Syndrome)-there are simply to many stories/claims of decrease of immunity after a CoViD infection to ignore...so the chances of other diseases becoming pandemic ON TOP of the CoViD pandemic may be growing...








People will pay more tax, have less disposable income and the services they are paying for will be diminished. Great stuff chaps, 12 years well spent.

and

Ben Kentish

@BenKentish
·
OBR says the tax burden in 2024-25 will be the highest since the Second World War

DJ-this goes for the UK-but most other-western- countries are not doing better...Combining wars with pandemics is terrible politics...

Variant update from COG UK: together, BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 Omicron subvariants are now dominant in England as of a week ago... If we are similar to France, should not cause a big wave - fingers crossed! But XBB also increasing - up to 3% of sequenced cases now.

DJ...complicating the view may be "variant background" -earlier infection by some variants may influence risks of infection later on by other variants...(So infection-wave in country A may have seen a lot of variant X...now Z is spreading...limited new cases. Country B had a lot of Y-variants-could mean more people catching Z variant...). 

DJ-Even tough vaccines may limit risks-it is simply better NOT to catch any virus at all...catching one virus could-now-open doors/increase risks for more infections...

Today Indie-SAGE will bring another update...they do a good job as well !

End of part 2...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 19 2022 at 3:31am

DJ, 

Let me start with a link to Indie_SAGE [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l9ZJYHhH7VM[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l9ZJYHhH7VM doing again a very good job !

Join us for a discussion on the origin of SARS-CoV-2 with guests Prof David L Robertson & Prof Stuart Neil, session hosted by Dr Stephen Griffin & Prof Aris Katzourakis, chaired by Prof Martin McKee and Dr Duncan Robertson on numbers

Chapters  00:30 Welcome & Intro: Prof Martin McKee 01:22 Stats: Dr Duncan Robertson 09:30 Guests intro: Dr Stephen Griffin & Prof Aris Katzourakis 13:05 What do we know now about how this lineage relates to other coronaviruses?: Prof David L Robertson, Medical Research Council Investigator, Glasgow Uni Centre for Virus Research 15:52 Important parts of SARS-CoV2, Cleavage site: Prof Stuart Neil, Head of Dept, Infectious Diseases, Director of Prog Inf & Imm, King's Coll, London 44:40 Questions from the public  44:48 What do ONS etc say about asymptomatic positivity?  49:50 Children being used as an "immunity reservoir". What is it? And "immunity debt"? 53:02 Do the new nasal vaccines have any better effect especially on those with immune deficiencies? 55:50 Are there any studies on what is a good antibody response?  57:25 How do you approach safety conversations in the workplace? 1:01:45 Conclusion and close

DJ..on minute 40-In China sampling of 2,000 animals on markets did find 10% had a risky viral infection...a certain percentage even had a virus new to the species (previous seen in bats, humans-not in the species on the-partly under the counter-market...). This was part of a discussion on the origens of CoViD/SARS-2...both SARS-1 in 2003 and SARS-2 in 2019 are linked to markets with live animals...(no lab-leak needed !). Further studies did find more corona-virusses close to CoViD-19...DJ-There are so many virusses around-it is simply impossible to study/know them all...Also mutations/recombinations may go faster then science is able to follow-nature is much more creative in virusses then-so far-humans are...

Also-end of video-examples may lead...If you feel the need for a mask in a workplace, transport-wear one....It will make it easier for others to follow...

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table for what it is worth-maybe just as indication; global cases now at 0% increase/decrease...Europe, North America cases still decreasing-other regions (South America, Africa, Oceania-Asia most important-over 50% of global population (!!!) see increase of cases...But testing/reporting is very poor...

So 

Lots of competition. Let's see which one(s) wel make it! But BQ.1* is still growing. BQ.1.1* is included in BQ.1* and BN.1.3.1 in BN.1.

DJ BQ.1/BQ.1.1 may be becoming dominant in the tested (often symptomatic) cases....It could be other variants simply show up less in testing-may still give symptoms later on...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-glasgow-researchers-warn-domestic-cats-are-becoming-viral-reservoirs-for-sars-cov-2-and-could-trigger-a-whole-new-crisis[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-glasgow-researchers-warn-domestic-cats-are-becoming-viral-reservoirs-for-sars-cov-2-and-could-trigger-a-whole-new-crisis DJ-with lots of links and nuances...outdoor cats may have less virus...(DJ-and-by far !!!-most spread simply is from human-to-human !!! With sometimes virus/variants hiding in hosts...making humans very likely a much greater "reservoir"...). 

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/sars-cov-2-variant-soup-means-no-more-waves-or-surges-but-rather-constant-onslaught-and-reinfections-china-reports-record-covid-19-infections[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/sars-cov-2-variant-soup-means-no-more-waves-or-surges-but-rather-constant-onslaught-and-reinfections-china-reports-record-covid-19-infections DJ-I may not like the cynical wording TMN is using...but I think the basic story is; less peaks-much more high number of infections...with in many countries vaccines limiting disease...(and yes-vaccines are far from perfect-may have their own problems. Without vaccines I think the picture would even be worse...still I am against mandatory vaccines. )

Maybe on vaccines...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_mainland_China#Vaccines[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_mainland_China#Vaccines ;

While public authorities have mandated lockdowns and mandatory mass testing for areas with infection, there has not been any rule to making vaccination mandatory. Some facilities within China have made vaccination mandatory for entry, including things like movie theatres, fitness centres, internet bars, museums and libraries.[241]

DJ...one of the problems in pandemic control has been endless/pointless discussions on mandatory vaccines (specialy in the US...). As a general-MEDICAL-rule the patient has to agree with a medical intervention ! NO GOVERNMENT !!!! has a legal right to enforce vaccinations on all of its population. Somehow some politicians are unaware of medical/legal rules....

Here in NL if the police thinks you are (driving) under influence of alcohol or drugs-a judge may agree in taking a bloodsample-if need by force...but that is an exception. In Cuba they had "hospital-camps" for HIV+ people at high risk of further spreading the virus...There heva been cases in several countries were people did get locked up in their houses because of an outbreak of disease...

DJ-also indie_SAGE gives the picture of "politics" not being very constructive or well informed....

Maybe on this forum-non of us is/was here based on being an expert...the basic idea is respect for different views...willing to listen and learn...while disagreeing...

-Economy; The Duran [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=klFrgIrOLaQ[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=klFrgIrOLaQ ;

Trade between India and Russia surges. EU continues to self-destruct The Duran: Episode 1437

DJ..basic story; "west" want to sanction Russia...so will not buy Russian energy...but if Russia exports energy to Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, India, China (etc) it is okay the west will buy "energy" from those countries...Pandemic-link; economic self destruction of an insane west....WE !!!!! sanction Russia...in fact sanction ourselves...because for energy demand still is larger then production...This insanity is also ending the US-petro-$....because global energy trade now is moving high speed away from $,€ etc....

Western countries for now "compensate" for higher energy prices-but creating more money to do so only is pushing up inflation and debts...

Without an economy no healthcare...while healthcare demand may be "exploding"....

CoViD resulting in weaker post-infection immunity protection IS !!! opening doors to all kind of other diseases-ON TOP OF !!! CoViD !

"Politics" simply in denial of the risks of pandemics, climate change, fiat-currencies, wars will kill us...[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/which-populations-feel-their-country-wrong-track[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/which-populations-feel-their-country-wrong-track DJ-Politics did fall into the hands of "clever idiots" in a tunnel vision...

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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part 2,








New study on COVID-19 and Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 20 Comparison Countries, which should totally end the ridiculous claims about Covid vaccinations being linked to excess mortality. Alas, the chances of that are none and Buckleys!

DJ link [url]https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2798990[/url] or https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2798990 ;

Discussion

The US continued to experience significantly higher COVID-19 and excess all-cause mortality compared with peer countries during 2021 and early 2022, a difference accounting for 150 000 to 470 000 deaths. This difference was muted in the 10 states with highest vaccination coverage; remaining gaps may be explained by greater vaccination uptake in peer countries, better vaccination targeting to older age groups, and differences in health and social infrastructure.

This study also highlights the value of excess mortality in understanding effects of COVID-19. Excess all-cause mortality began to fall below COVID-19 mortality in several countries and highly vaccinated states during Omicron, perhaps owing to reductions in non–COVID-19 deaths. However, cross-location differences may also reflect differences in COVID-19 death coding.

Limitations include use of some provisional mortality estimates and lack of adjustment by age and comorbidities. Nevertheless, unadjusted estimates remain important, because a country’s response to COVID-19 should reflect risks in its population rather than a hypothetical standardized population.

These findings highlight that the US continued to lag peer countries in COVID-19 and excess all-cause mortality, albeit with lower mortality in highly vaccinated states.

DJ...general statistics indicate decrease of CoViD-deaths (within 28 days after +test) after vaccinations started. But it is a complex story-quality/availability of (good) healtcare also matter...Also a younger population may see less CoViD deaths then an aging one...








ICYMI my latest column on cancer- If you are worried about changes in your health – such as weight loss, extreme fatigue, blood in your urine or stool, a persistent cough or lumps – get them checked without delay.

link [url]https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/nov/18/covid-epidemic-cancer-diagnosis-pandemic-europe[/url] or https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/nov/18/covid-epidemic-cancer-diagnosis-pandemic-europe ;But the pandemic has reversed these gains. A report from the Lancet Oncology Commission, examining 44 European countries, notes that the pandemic has resulted in late cancer diagnosis, delayed intervention, disruption in treatment and many deaths, due to Covid-19, among cancer sufferers. This is largely a result of health services being overwhelmed or repurposed and of too many infections and Covid hospital admissions, leading to long national lockdowns in some countries. The report estimates that as many as a million cancer diagnoses may have been missed in Europe during that time.

DJ.Some indications CoViD infection does increase risks for cancers [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-new-international-study-warns-that-sars-cov-2-infections-will-lead-to-cancers-especially-colorectal-cancers-due-to-disruption-in-autophagy[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-new-international-study-warns-that-sars-cov-2-infections-will-lead-to-cancers-especially-colorectal-cancers-due-to-disruption-in-autophagy 








Killer stat: £7.5bn of extra welfare benefits for declining health of the nation. Wow! What a wake-up call. Our health system can’t keep up. Cost of ill-health spiralling. We need to pivot to prevention. Time to wake up and smell the coffee. #healthybritain H/t 

DJ...long term health effects of CoViD (mostly)  are extreme...








🧵In the past week, the Chinese government has initiated a dangerous shift away from the #ZeroCovid strategy which has been in place since the beginning of the pandemic. If the situation spirals out of control, it would threaten millions of lives. 1/

link [url]https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/11/18/pers-n18.html[/url] or https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/11/18/pers-n18.html ;

In the past week, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) government has initiated a dangerous shift in policy away from the Zero-COVID elimination strategy which has been in place across China since the beginning of the pandemic.

The clearest evidence for this change is last Friday’s issuance of 20 measures by the National Health Commission (NHC) which curtail every aspect of the Zero-COVID policy, under conditions in which daily new cases have risen over tenfold since late October. According to Our World In Data, China’s seven-day average of daily new cases now stands at 15,897 and is on pace to reach an all-time high in the next week.

DJ [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic#Strategies[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic#Strategies "Zero CoViD" has high costs...when new variants show themselves to be more infectious the costs of "Zero CoViD" only further increases...Still..."living with the virus" also is very destructive....

With lots of other infectious diseases-a.o. H5N1 getting close to very high risk for humans-and a decrease of immunity we are on our way to an even worse global health crisis...There is "pseudo science" on "immunity debt"...the basic-wrong-idea is "infection is good for you=it provides immunity"...(a bit like there is "no bad experience"..."what does not kill you makes you stronger"-non sense...those who did survive all out war horrors-suffering from PTSD 24/7 know it is totaly insane...).

Infection often does do damage...so NOT catching that infection is wiser-but in daily live we had to find a balance...

DJ-We now face an ongoing healthcrisis only getting worse...there are lots of things that ARE usefull;

-good info

-masks

-testing/sequencing

-STOP THE SPREAD !!!!

but we are simply NOT doing it...There is another climate-meeting in Egypt-looks like it will fail...








The newest HRRR model run has 70 inches of snow falling in less than 24 hours just south of Buffalo, NY. This is shaping up to be potentially one of the most extreme snowstorms in US history.

DJ...no doubt some will claim "a new ice-age is coming" while the planet may be in record heat this 2022...."pars pro toto"-cherry picking...a snowball is NOT proof global warming is NOT real...

Wars...[url]https://twitter.com/evakbartlett[/url] or https://twitter.com/evakbartlett doing a great job....but "the west-10%" keeps pushing for more conflict with "the rest -90%"....it is the mix of healthcrises, economic collapse, climate collapse, wars...insane politics-that is killing us...

End of part 2

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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DJ, 

War can not be ignored in "What will kill us".....[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c3EZbbGNQBg[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c3EZbbGNQBg military summary I think is doing a decent job-also trying to limit propaganda...[url]https://southfront.org/us-aid-to-ukraine-invested-in-corrupt-crypto-ftx-scheme/[/url] or https://southfront.org/us-aid-to-ukraine-invested-in-corrupt-crypto-ftx-scheme/ reminds me of [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Contra_affair[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Contra_affair only this time "a lot of money" may have ended up in private pockets-maybe even more then with the Iran-Contra "scheme/scandal"..

My impression on Ukraine; talks of mass evacuations [url]https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/19-november-protest-in-odesa-against-blackouts[/url] or https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/19-november-protest-in-odesa-against-blackouts because essentials now are needed for the military...With winter hitting hard in Ukraine a lot of civilians may starve because logistics is breaking down...

Both in Kiev and in NATO growing division on what next....A choice-taking maybe up to 30 million refugees from Ukraine-or see "lots of them" die in a winter and collapse of logistics...from warmth to food...

-It looks like Türkiye and Iran did join forces against Kurds in Syria, Iraq, western Iran...with "protests" (no doubt supported by "the west") becoming more violent in Iran. 

The war of "the west-10%- against the rest-90%" is getting even more ugly...

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escobar-goodbye-g20-hello-brics[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escobar-goodbye-g20-hello-brics ;

Fixated with war

Instead the US, which controls NATO, has been weaponizing Ukraine, since March, by a whopping $91.3 billion, including the latest presidential request, this month, of $37.7 billion. That happens to be 33 percent more than Russia’s total (italics mine) military spending for 2022.

Extra evidence of the Bali Summit being hijacked by “war” was provided by the emergency meeting, called by the US, to debate what ended up being a Ukrainian S-300 missile falling on a Polish farm, and not the start of WWIII like some tabloids hysterically suggested.

Tellingly, there was absolutely no one from the Global South in the meeting – the sole Asian nation being the Japanese vassal, part of the G7.

DJ...spending tens of billions on more war with a growing health/climate crisis is insane....

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/one-way-or-another-population-globe-will-soon-be-much-smaller-it-right-now[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/one-way-or-another-population-globe-will-soon-be-much-smaller-it-right-now from micro-plastics to glyphosate [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glyphosate-based_herbicides[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glyphosate-based_herbicides ;

Constantly exposing your genitals to microwave radiation is a really bad idea if you want to have kids.

Of course the human race is killing itself in countless other ways as well.

For example, even though we know that glyphosate causes cancer, we keep feeding foods that have been sprayed with it to ourselves and our children on a daily basis.

DJ, there have been infectious diseases all the time-it is the way we live that is making matters that much worse...

[url]https://paulbeckwith.net/2022/11/09/heartfelt-chat-by-glaciologist-on-the-jubilee-expedition-in-svalbard-2022-documents-dead-glacier/[/url] or https://paulbeckwith.net/2022/11/09/heartfelt-chat-by-glaciologist-on-the-jubilee-expedition-in-svalbard-2022-documents-dead-glacier/ ...

On pandemics;








This is a game-changer thread. We have to assume that persistence of sars2 after infection is what is happening. The consequences are dire if treatments are not developed. Precautionary principle should prevail. Transmission must be stopped, at any cost.

DJ...reinfection may NOT be reinfection at all ? The virus-maybe mutated-reactivates ????

It is not true that only a subset of the immunocompromised or a subset of the Long Haulers has viral persistence. A preliminary analysis of the papers in this compilation (data up to July 2021) 🧵1/6

-

shows 2,669 cases on SARS-CoV-2 persistence, with only 240 cases (9% of the total) showing symptoms in the last positive sample (up to ~7 months from symptoms onset) and only 109 cases (4% of the total) out of those 240 could be classified as Long COVID. 2/6

-

While they make everyone think that “the virus persists in a very unfortunate subset of the infected”, hundreds of millions of people who think they are “recovered”, are actually already at risk of developing disabling/life threatening diseases in the coming years 5/6

-

and hundreds of millions more could join this group. It’s past time for us to have really effective antiviral treatments against SARS-CoV-2. Enough is enough! 6/6

DJ...we know corona viral diseases (coViD) in animals often means killing all the-possible-infected animals.... Lots of indications CoViD weakens immunity-giving other diseases (like MPX, H5N1) more room for spread....

"Living with this kind of virus" may simply be an insane idea...even more insane then-still-trying to stop its damage...We were in time in 2003 with SARS-1. We-as humans-failed january 2020...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_lockdown_in_China[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_lockdown_in_China january 23-2020 was an alarm being ignored...

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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part 2...not that much new news further on twitter...

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/11/19/one-million-fake-coronavirus-tests-confiscated-nijmegen-warehouse[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/11/19/one-million-fake-coronavirus-tests-confiscated-nijmegen-warehouse ;

One million fake coronavirus tests were confiscated in a warehouse by the financial crimes inspectorate FIOD in Nijmegen on Saturday. Customs authorities had received information that a batch of fake self-test kits were probably being stored in a warehouse and then called in FIOD for assistance.

While the tests may have been functional, they were made with replicated branding and the unauthorized use of trademarks. As it is illegal in the Netherlands to manufacture counterfeit goods, or trade in them, FIOD seized the batch. It was in the process of being destroyed on Saturday afternoon. is now being destroyed.


The fake coronavirus test kits were made in China and intended for the German market, FIOD said. The shipment was sent from China to Schiphol Airport and Maastricht Aachen Airport.

A criminal investigation into the shipments is being led by the division of the Public Prosecution Service that handles fraud and complex seizure cases

DJ, DIY-at home testing may be "far from perfect" for finding out if you do have "CoViD"...some studies indicate 25-30% of CoViD-infections may be detected. PCR-testing is able to do better...needs less viral parts. New variants act different from older ones-for wich at home tests were made. So far new variants still have the "identifiers" for CoViD...so at home testing still has its use...If you test positive you DO have CoViD...however a negative test does simply not rule out CoViD...may be to low a viral load...

Climate "change";

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/11/20/cop27-timmermans-jetten-disappointed-outcome-un-climate-summit[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/11/20/cop27-timmermans-jetten-disappointed-outcome-un-climate-summit ;

Dutch Climate Minister Rob Jetten was also disappointed with the results achieved during the UN climate summit, he said on Sunday morning. "In a year with many extreme weather events and alarming climate reports, we have failed to make significant progress in reducing CO2 by all high-emitting countries. That is extremely disappointing."


At the same time, the minister said that a breakthrough has been achieved on the theme of climate damage. "That is extremely important for vulnerable countries that are already experiencing this, often without contributing much to climate change themselves. This step will help restore trust between the global north and south. And will hopefully make it possible for new breakthroughs for a real acceleration in our climate approach."

Timmermans remained critical and thinks that, "This agreement is too small a step forward.” According to the Dutchman, too many countries are afraid to make the necessary efforts to reduce climate change and called on the participating countries to recognize that the agreement falls short

DJ...in short (western) countries agree to "create more fiat currency" to compensate damage they do to others....Also "claims" on keeping temperature rise under 1,5C...more realistic indications [url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/11/there-is-no-carbon-budget.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/11/there-is-no-carbon-budget.html claim temperature rise-caused by humans-allready is over 2C...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/963165-indonesia-extraordinary-event-klb-declared-in-aceh-after-child-diagnosed-with-polio[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/963165-indonesia-extraordinary-event-klb-declared-in-aceh-after-child-diagnosed-with-polio ;

In addition to hosting the 3rd year of our COVID pandemic, a war in Europe, and the unprecedented spread of HPAI H5 around the world, 2022 has also witnessed the resurgence of polio in a number of countries previously declared free of the disease, including the United States and England.

Overnight the Pidie Regency in Aceh, Indonesia announced the discovery of a case of polio in a (reportedly unimmunized) 7 year-old child who was first struck with a flu-like illness on October 6th, and three days later developed signs of paralysis.


Fewer than 1% of those infected develop paralysis, while the rest are either asymptomatic or have flu-like illness. All, however, can shed the polio virus for weeks, meaning that 1 case of paralysis very probably indicates a much larger outbreak.

Indonesia, along with 10 other South-East Asia countries (Bangladesh, Bhutan, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, India, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Timor-Leste) were certified as being polio-free by the WHO in 2014 (see WHO South-East Asia Region certified polio-free).


But after decades of progress in eradicating the disease, since 2014 we've seen a worrisome resurgence of polio around the world, prompting the WHO to declare polio a PHEIC (Public Health Emergency of International Concern) on May 5th, 2014.


The latest WHO extension (see Statement of the Thirty-second Polio IHR Emergency Committee) was published in June.

DJ..still lots of questions...more waste water samples-around the globe-may see more polio-virus particles if tested. [url]https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-02233-6[/url] or https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-02233-6 ;

What is the status of polio outbreaks elsewhere?

Outbreaks in wealthy countries get lots of attention, says Rosenbauer. “But over the past 20 years, we’ve had many, many serious outbreaks around the world in developing countries.”

Rosenbauer says there are encouraging signs that the battle to eradicate polio is making progress, despite the disruption caused by COVID-19. Outbreaks in Yemen and a few countries in Africa are still active, he says, but their range is shrinking.

In places where there is armed conflict, such as areas of Afghanistan and Yemen, vaccination is difficult. “We need the political will to implement a plan to reach all the children in challenging areas,” he says. Otherwise, “the disease will come back globally”.

DJ...case, case, cluster, cluster, "boom"???? ticking time bomb ? 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states/other-diseases-ai/963167-us-children%E2%80%99s-hospitals-call-on-biden-to-declare-emergency-in-response-to-%E2%80%98unprecedented%E2%80%99-rsv-surge[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states/other-diseases-ai/963167-us-children%E2%80%99s-hospitals-call-on-biden-to-declare-emergency-in-response-to-%E2%80%98unprecedented%E2%80%99-rsv-surge ;

Children’s hospitals call on Biden to declare emergency in response to ‘unprecedented’ RSV surge

PUBLISHED FRI, NOV 18 20228:52 AM EST

UPDATED FRI, NOV 18 20226:30 PM EST

  • The Children’s Hospital Association and the American Academy of Pediatrics told the Biden administration that “unprecedented levels” of RSV combined with increasing flu circulation are pushing some hospitals to the breaking point.
  • They asked the federal government to declare an emergency to provide hospitals with added flexibility to meet the surge.
  • Infants 6 months and younger are getting hospitalized with RSV at seven times the rate observed before the Covid-19 pandemic in 2018, according to CDC data.

DJ...maybe link with (missed) CoViD ????

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/963159-preprint-rising-sars-cov-2-seroprevalence-and-patterns-of-cross-variant-antibody-neutralization-in-uk-domestic-cats[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/963159-preprint-rising-sars-cov-2-seroprevalence-and-patterns-of-cross-variant-antibody-neutralization-in-uk-domestic-cats ;

Almost exactly a year ago we witnessed a seismic change in the SARS-CoV-2 virus when a new, and radically different COVID variant (B.1.1.529 variant (dubbed Omicron) emerged in South Africa, and quickly conquered the world.


While controversial, some scientists believe the Omicron variant may have evolved after the virus jumped to mice or other rodents (see Evidence for a mouse origin of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant), and then spilled back into humans (see Maryn McKenna's article in Wired).

The idea isn't so far-fetched, as we've previously seen a COVID variant emerged from farmed mink in Denmark, and then spread through the population (see WHO 2nd Update: SARS-CoV-2 mink-associated variant strain – Denmark).


We've seen other cases where non-human hosts appear to have infected humans, often with a `genetically distinct' variant, including:


The potential harm from SARS-CoV-2 establishing itself in one or more non-human host species is great enough that last March world health organizations (WHO/FAO/OIE) published a Joint Statement On Monitoring SARS-CoV-2 In Wildlife & Preventing Formation of Reservoirs.


The USDA maintains a dashboard showing confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 in animals, although it undoubtedly only represents a small fraction of actual infections.



Not surprisingly, companion animals (cats & dogs) lead the list, but how often they are infected is unknown.

Shedding some light on this topic, we have a preprint out of the UK which - using blood samples submitted to University of Glasgow Veterinary Diagnostic Services laboratory (VDS) over nearly a two year period (Apr 2020-Feb 2022) - retrospectively finds the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in cats to average 3.2% (peaking at 5.3%).

These findings are all pre-Omicron, since that variant had only been spreading widely for a short time by the cut-off time for this study.

The authors noted:


A higher proportion of pedigree cats were seropositive compared to their non-pedigree counterparts - this finding approached statistical significance. Pedigree cats are more likely to be indoor-only (68) and may therefore experience more close contact with their owners, meaning they are more exposed to SARS-CoV-2 if their owners become infected.

After three long years of the COVID pandemic, the world's hopes are pinned on the idea that - given enough time - the SARS-CoV-2 virus will settle down into an endemic, and less impactful, seasonal respiratory virus.


While COVID has lost some of its severity, it continues to reinvent itself into new, highly transmissible variants.

The wildcard out there is the possibility that a new, highly divergent variant might emerge from a non-human host reservoir (mink, deer, mice, dogs, cats, etc.) that not only reinvigorates the pandemic, but increases the severity of the virus in humans.

How likely that is to happen is anyone's guess. But we can't afford to ignore the possibility.

https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2022/...ars-cov-2.html

DJ, there are lots of other diseases...CoViD may result in unseen scale of loss of immunity-opening the doors wide for lots of other diseases that no doubt will mutate a lot...

End of part 2....

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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