Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
When will you act? |
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Posted: May 28 2006 at 2:05am |
When I say act I mean quarantine yourselves.
If we wait until the pandemic has started it may be too late because millions will be spreading and sheding the virus asymptomatically.
I plan to quarantine myself at phase 5 - pandemic imminent.
What do you think?
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The problem is - will we know when it is phase 5? Social distancing works for me now but not for every member of my family so they will just bring it home anyway. For me, I hope and pray that I get a small viral load initially so that I have some antibodies.
Let's see---I had gastro symptoms last week, 2 days of headache and this morning I woke up with a tickling deep cough...I hate wondering all the time if it is already phase 5 and will i or won't i get it. I hate feeling like a hypochondriac and I am tired of focusing on every nuance of illness in my body. I am starting to ignore things rather than run to my med preps at the first sign of illness. I am already getting tired of high tailing it in another direction when someone coughs or sneezes. Then I think, what a baby, this is a picnic compared to what could be or will be. I say it is past time to practice social distancing but that is just my opinion. It is easier said than done. I was in a crowd of about 500 yesterday. I had to be there because my daughter was receiving an award. In a perfect world the government would tell us exactly how it is and we would all respond correctly but this is far from a perfect world and people are not responding correctly even now. The administration has to balance and juggle more variables than we can even know. I.E. What kind of vulnerability will this cause to our nation as a whole? I don't think they can quarantine us en masse so "it" will be allowed to "blow on through" and then society will pick up the pieces. JMO, prayer will be the most important prep. |
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Scotty
Adviser Group Joined: March 06 2006 Location: United Kingdom Status: Offline Points: 846 |
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There's no pressure on me to gamble. I am self-employed and, no credit to me, awash with cash. It will be a lot tougher for those under pressure to pay the bills. They will need to get as close to the line as they can. Some of them will push their luck just a little too far.
Anyone who has a natural instinct to follow the herd is on a loser, rich or poor, informed or not. I live alone so I am my own weakest link. Most will have families and, whether they admit it or not, their lives might well depend upon the behaviour of whoever is the weakest link. I disagree, now there's a surprise, with the general view that we will have little warning. I think that most of us will get at least two days warning. When I see clear evidence of airborne transmission then, for me, its time to wish everyone good luck and goodbye. |
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My college age daughter informed me that she will not leave college and come home unless they close the school. The only good thing is that she has a car there, I will plead with her to keep a full tank of gas.Maybe she should keep some supplies in her trunk.
I keep hoping that between this forum and fluwiki, we may all get a heads up at least a few hours before the rest of our communities. Maybe even the fact that we are on line checking the news more often so we will see it first. |
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NawtyBits
Valued Member Joined: February 28 2006 Status: Offline Points: 430 |
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For some reason, I think I will know when it's time. I have no
certain criteria Im looking for, no signals or signs. But, my
little voice will tell me when it's time. (If I can hear it over
all the other little voices...)
nawty |
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What happened to the previous post?
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I have trouble believing we'll go from Phase 3 or even Phase 4 to Phase 6 in a couple of days. Is this belief based on any facts?
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NawtyBits
Valued Member Joined: February 28 2006 Status: Offline Points: 430 |
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Unless you are of the opinion that we are already at a 4, just not being told. nawty |
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Bill 100
Valued Member Joined: May 21 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 524 |
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I have not stored any water yet I have 6 plastic 55 gallon drums with liners, in place, bleach and an eye dropper, ready to fill them. I am waiting, trying to buy time, thinking the water could spoil over time. As soon as the Ballon goes up, then I will fill them up. Once my drums are full, I believe I could get by. I don't think it will start in the us or the uk, the uk has a body of water for protection. They have the tunnel but I bet that is the first thing they shut down. I think it will start in a highly populated area maybe asia or europe, or a country that has a lot of diseases (Africa/Indonisia) that the bird flu can gain the one protien it needs to mutate. When the ballon goes up, it will be play it by ear time, one day at a time. Making daily judgement calls on what restrictions I make for myself. I don't think everything will shut down straight away, information in the us is very slow if they tell us at all. The government I believe will be slow to act, so I think we will have a little time maybe hours maybe a day. I would not want to go to the store during that time, but I think we might sqeeeze out a day, for it to sink in, before anything major starts to happen. (major panic, looting, power outs, no water, ect) that is my take on it.
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I am planning as if it is here except for the quarantine and masks.
I will quarantine myself in July . I spend money wisely only for preps. I want new patio and other stuff I tell myself that Iwill wait till the danger is over .(It amzing how conditioned we are to want things now. I have built hiding place for money and food I most importantly understand there is no charity that will help me or my child and must be prepared to plan wisely. I have talked to many people lately and they still think the goverment will help them , that there will be food distribution centers and support . |
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Since I joined this site, I have found out that due to the diligent efforts of so many we tend to have information days, sometimes weeks before it becomes generally known. It's been about two months since the suggestion was raised that we are at Level 4 and now the WHO is finally considering a panel to consider it. WOW!!! I have faith in our group here, we'll figure it out. To me, the question is, when to start using PPE in public? Besides the ridicule, how much will that make us a target for later?
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I am using EVERYDAY and EVERY HOUR to do at least one if not more things to prepare. I am buying,freezing,storing everyting. I already carry hand sanitizer and wash my hands more than often,after shopping or any other contact with people. I have stopped going to meeting places of many people i.e. church,and no parades for us this Memorial Day. We always go to the park/lake, but there are Canadian Geeses here(ohio) now so NO WAY. Bird-Feeder is empty and will stay that way. I am trying to decide if I should home school this fall..kind of a hard choice,my one son is to be a senior....The only time I have contact with others is when I buy my supplies...A lady at Wal-Mart said people have been coming in to shop with masks on...I haven't seen this though. Perhaps I am mentally preparing myself for what is to come....
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bigdaddy
Valued Member Joined: May 19 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 30 |
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Im a news buff (like alot of us) and I hope I'll know when the bird flu has went from human to human in the northern hemisphere. I think we'll be hearing alot about birds infected and dying on our pacific coast first then moving east from there.
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Bill 100
Valued Member Joined: May 21 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 524 |
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That is funny I have not seen anybody with masks, but my mother said she saw one at the store and one at church and that was at least a month ago. Plus she said the woman she saw at church stopped going altogether.
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I think once I hear about very large clusters overseas, I will begin on my last minutes preps.
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Char
V.I.P. Member Joined: May 27 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 22 |
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With all the information available online, we should be able to act before most people know what's going on. I'm also keeping an eye on what happens with my sons, both are in the Army National Guard. If military starts to mobilize in the US, that will certainly be a heads up for me. |
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ditto watch the news on the net thats it
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andrew p
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I think we are all watching Indonesia very closely, and it is all over the regular news. If that situation explodes, I'll make the last minute preps and go on high alert.
I think we will be informed rather quickly when it arrives in this country, and that will probably signal the serious lockdown for those who are prepared. Depends on where you are though. If I was in Miami or NYC or some other major port of entry, I'd be more cautious. I live rurally so I feel like I have the luxury of a little more time. |
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It wasn't raining when Noah built the Ark.
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nettie4263
Adviser Group Joined: March 27 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 158 |
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Ppeople who are currently wearing masks likely either have very bad allergies or my be undergoing chemotherapy. I know of a man who wears a mask for this reason.
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nettie4263
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Personally I will not act until confirmed human cases are in the United States.
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ozjohn
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When it is declared as H2H2H overseas, I will do my last minute shopping and prepping.
H2H2H in Australia will have me and the family behind the closed doors of our two family homes, within 5 minutes walk of each other.
OJ
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Scout motto - "Be Prepared"
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NZ er
Adviser Group Joined: March 27 2006 Location: New Zealand Status: Offline Points: 329 |
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My main concern at present, is because of the developing situation(multiple earthquakes and volcano threats) in Indonesia with the huge figure of injured, and the dead... the very real danger of disease will make it difficult for anyone to seperate illness/death from disease or that of h5n1 spread. They have a major problem over there and now that we have people from all corners converging there to help..they may possibly bring disease 'home'. We need to watch Indonesia VERY carefully
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Land of the Long White Cloud
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Oisanatta
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I concur with Femvet from my perspective. The folks on this site are so on top of the facts and news that the forum folks will know ahead of any public announcement. Although, another factor for me will be when the "rooster" icons (see link below) start to show up in the Western Hemisphere. http://visz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/woalert.php?lang=eng |
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The only thing worse than a brutal lie is the brutal truth. (M Twain) I waited patiently for the LORD; He turned to me and heard my cry. He lifted me out of the pit; He set my feet on a rock. Psalm40
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ShaRenKa
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Same here Char, my son is in Marines, and said, no matter what, he will inform me of anything that may raise an eyebrow.
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Sha Ren Ka
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ShaRenKa
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Bill... just how much bleach in water to store? I've seen varying amounts...not sure how much;(
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Sha Ren Ka
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chickenhawk
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Should water be treated before storing it?
If your local water is treated commercially by a water treatment utility, you do not have to treat the water before storing it. Treating commercially-treated water with bleach is superfluous and not necessary. Doing so does not increase storage life. It is important to change and replace stored water every six months or more frequently. from the Red Cross
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imagination is more important than knowledge - albert einstein
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ShaRenKa
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TY so much ChickenHawk...
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Sha Ren Ka
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oknut
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Ditto - Thank you ChickenHawk!
That's great information. |
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Bill 100
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ShaRenka, I guess none, if it has been commercially treated, I was going to put 5-8 drops per gallon. Thanks for asking, and thanks, chickenhawk for answering. wow that worked out good.
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A storm is coming !
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Dualis
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Unfortunately I will wait and play by ear when it comes time to quarantine. Got to many bills and things that have to be done for many of the family members... Say a prayer and continue prepping |
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Jaz!
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16 drops of regular bleach per gallon, shake then let it sit for 15 minutes. if it has a slight bleach smell its good to drink. if not repeat process .
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It will be a hard call. I will be on high alert with H2H confirmed overseas in numbers over 100. Same with BF in birds here in the US. The first reports of hH2H in the US would definately make me stay home, but might be too late? |
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Penham
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I will wait until it is in humans in the United States. As soon as I hear, it will be my last work day, as well as DH last work day and DD will be kept out of school (if school is in session, we are out on summer break now). I kind of hope that it gets here when school is not in session (summer break, fall break, Christmas break) so I don't have to make that decision myself.
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Samoa
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In my case, my family already lives in an isolated community. I
seriously doubt that the BF will raise its ugly head here. But
shortages of all types will cause our little island community to go
into panic mode pretty quickly I would imagine. If it comes to
that, a mad rush at the stores, it will already be too late to "stock
up". "Pro-active" is the operative word here.
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DAX COM
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When will I quarantine? That's a good question.
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quietprepr
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When I hear of the first human case in the US, I will go and do my best to clean out the stores. I have adequate preps now, but am holding an extra $5k to fill the garage with more. I, like a few others here, think this forum will give us at least 3-4 days headstart over the average person. From there i will play by ear for lockdown, but it won't be long after. Don't want to chance infection by pre-symptomatic carriers.
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"Learning is not compulsory... neither is survival." - W. Edwards Deming
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It could go phase 6 at anytime and jump there from phase 3 if someone or some pig gets a human flu and the bird flu at the same time and a pandemic strain will explode
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redcloud
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Femvet, If you feel the need to use PPE in public, perhaps the time to quaratine has arrived. Why take unnecessary risks? Llike Scotty, I have been practicing self-imposed exile for months. A certain reinvigoration of my prep reflex has lately taken hold, and I find myself wanting to finish up some projects, that will see me through next winter, way ahead of time. One must trust these small still voices. My daughter is in Tibet, soon to travel to Thailand. My main project of late is coming to terms with the idea of never seeing her again. Red |
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If all is not lost, where is it?
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what is PPE?
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Glenn 50
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I and my wife are virtual recluses anyway. We are self employed and work from home in horticulture.
Every day things are being sorted and finalised for a lock down. The day reports come that it is H2H in Australasia (NZ and/or Aus.) I get my mother, 2 of the kids come home and the big gate is shut. The other kids and spouses have other plans. Ones in the military and the other is in a cultish type of survivalist church so they will be as ok as they can be.. |
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pheasant
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i learned a lesson during the hurricanes,i already knew it but didnt act on it,preperation needs to be done before an event ... you have a threat/ warning /than an event....preperation for a threat ,is prudent ....preping in response to a warning (in this case government advice..birdflue.gov..etc.) is common sense, plus no waiting in line doing the stare thing,eyes darting back n forth looking what every one else is getting......last note; i did NOT like the feeling of being the third person in line after that last case of caned tuna ,it wasnt a warm fuzzy feeling.
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The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR
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who of you will cut off the world at phase 5?
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I will lockdown at phase 3/4 if in the US...anywhere,any state,
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ok - good - me too but in Aussie
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pheasant
Admin Group Joined: May 20 2006 Location: Florida Status: Offline Points: 9851 |
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when its time...this forum i a great early warning system, i still have to work but fortunatly the kids a wife are home for the summer so im the weak link(re-exposed).....im as the coal miners say..watching the canary with one eye
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The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR
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